ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED OCT 14 1998
 
A SPOT OF THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION...BUT IT IS DISAPPEARING NOW.  CURRENT WIND SPEED
ESTIMATE IS 35 KT...ABOUT 10 KT BELOW THE FORMAL DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ESTIMATE.
 
KAY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE SSW...WITH THE 12Z AVN SHOWING WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS TO PERSIST.  WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE NOT KNOWN
FOR STRENGTHENING WHEN MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION...WARMER WATERS ARE
AHEAD IN THIS CASE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT SOME REDEVELOPMENT COULD
EVENTUALLY OCCUR.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS AND THE NHC FORECAST
SHOW A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST.  THE UKMET...WHICH SEEMS TO BE
DOING QUITE WELL ON THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUES THE CYCLONIC LOOP.  
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 14.6N 120.9W    35 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 14.2N 121.4W    30 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 13.8N 121.9W    30 KTS
36HR VT     16/0600Z 13.6N 122.6W    30 KTS
48HR VT     16/1800Z 13.5N 123.4W    30 KTS
72HR VT     17/1800Z 13.5N 124.5W    30 KTS
 
 
NNNN