FXUS63 KGLD 150929
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
229 AM MST MON MAR 15 2004

.DISCUSSION....FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WINDS TODAY FOLLOWED BY
TEMPERATURES AFTER THAT. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN ACTIVE AND
COMPLEX FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. SYSTEM NEAR
150 WEST HAS STARTED TO RETROGRADE. VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH NEBRASKA AS WELL. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS REALLY BROKEN DOWN THE
WESTERN RIDGE WHICH EVEN LOOKS LIKE IT HAS PULLED BACK WEST SOME.
NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT AREA IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN CANADA. AT JET
LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH INCOMING JET.

AT MID LEVELS...MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE TOO BAD. GFS DID BETTER ON
THE HEIGHT FIELD AND WAS DEEPEST WITH THE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR
NORTH. EVEN SO IT WAS NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH. BASED ON SATELLITE
ETA AND GFS HAVE OUR CURRENT SYSTEM IN HAND AND ARE ABOUT THE SAME
IN STRENGTH AND POSITION. AT LOW LEVELS...GFS NOT HANDLING LOW LEVEL
FEATURES AND WINDS VERY WELL. IT HAS EASTERN COLORADO SURFACE
TROUGH TOO FAR EAST AND NORTH. PLUS IT HAS PRESSURES OVER OUR AREA
TOO LOW AND AS A RESULT HAS THE WINDS TOO STRONG. RUC AND ETA DOING
VERY WELL WITH POSITION OF FEATURES AND STRENGTH OF THE WIND PLUS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ETA IS DOING WELL ON TEMPERATURES OVER US.
HOWEVER...IT IS A LITTLE COOL TO THE NORTH OF US AND IS TOO WARM
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF US. WILL AGAIN PREFER A BLEND OF THE RUC/ETA
AT LOW LEVELS AND MOISTURE...AND GFS MORE WITH UPPER FEATURES.

FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA IS STRONGER AND
FURTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO. TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION
HAD BROKEN OUT. HAD SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF FORECAST AREA EARLIER IN AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE/NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET. THAT HAS MOVED EAST. UPPER
DYNAMICS CAUSED STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION JUST TO NORTH AND EAST OF
AREA. ACTIVITY HAS ENDED AND WILL THE FIRST PERIOD DRY. WINDS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THEN LOOK TO BE THE NEXT PROBLEM.

STRONGEST DOWNWARD MOTIONS LOOKS TO OCCUR NEAR 12Z AND THEN RAPIDLY
MOVES SOUTH. 850 MB WINDS ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE ARE STRONGEST...
NEAR 40 KNOTS...AT 12Z AND THEN DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. IN
FACT...SOME UPWARD MOTION COMES IN...ACCORDING TO THE RUC...BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER
LEVELS ALLOW THE WINDS TO COME DOWN. MET AND MAV MOS HAVE NEAR 25
KNOTS OF WIND WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS. LATEST RUC 40 HAS 25 KNOTS OF WIND OVER OUR COLORADO COUNTIES
AND OVER OUR EASTERN SIX KANSAS COUNTIES AT 18Z.

MODELS AND SATELLITE SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING IN AROUND 18Z
BUT THIS ONE DOES NOT HAVE ANY UPWARD MOTION WITH IT ACCORDING TO
THE 00Z ETA/GFS. THIS KIND OF SUPPORTS THE RUC...AND THE UPWARD
MOTION MAY TAKE AWAY FROM THE SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWING THIS FIRST SYSTEM.
ALSO WEAK JET DYNAMICS COME IN LATE AS WELL. AT THIS TIME...DO NOT
PLAN ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY. BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS AND GUIDANCE THROUGH PACKAGE TIME AND EVEN AFTER FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORY. MAY HAVE SOME CLOUDS AROUND. ETA 850 MB TEMPS HAVE GONE
DONE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. GUIDANCE SUPPORTS LOWERING MAXES 3 TO 5
DEGREES...AND WILL GO NEAR IT SINCE ALL OF IT IS SIMILAR.

FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF JET AND JET AXIS
MOVE INTO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY WITH THE GFS THE MOST
FAVORABLE. NEXT SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES THROUGH MUCH
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ONCE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH. BOTH THESE
FEATURES MAY SPREAD JUST ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO HINDER A WARMUP.
ETA CONTINUES TO BE SLOWER IN PUSHING THE WIND SHIFT THROUGH SO AREA
WILL BE IN GOOD DOWNSLOPE LONGER. THEN GET INTO THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
IT DURING THE NIGHT. ETA HINTING AT SOME KIND OF PRESSURE
SURGE/BOUNDARY BACKING INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE. PLAN ON GOING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE ON MAXES AND NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW ON MINS.

FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARY AND LITTLE
DOWNSLOPE HELP MAY HINDER WARMUP IN THE EAST. MAIN JET STAYS NORTH.
PLAN ON GOING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE DUE TO ENOUGH SUN AND
DOWNSLOPE...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST.

NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED IN THE 4 TO 7 DAY PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.

&&

$$

BULLER