ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
HIZ000-
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 12/27/08 0146Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11: 0130Z			DS
NOAA AMSU: 2002Z/2324Z
.
LOCATION...HAWAII...
.
ATTN WFOS...HFO...
ATTN RFCS...AKRFC...
.
EVENT...NEW CNVTN OVER MANY PARTS OF THE ISLANDS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF WHAT REMAINS OF
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS ALLOWED FOR AN UNSTABLE
AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR CNVTN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. RECENT AMSU PASSES HAVE INDICATED 1.4-1.58" PW'S AND
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY 00Z RAOBS AT HLI/HTO. BOTH SOUNDINGS FROM HLI AND
HTO SHOW WEAK WRLY FLOW FROM NR 900MB TO JUST BELOW 500 MB WITH HLI
INDICATING A MOISTENING OF THE LOWER LVLS SINCE THIS MORNING.
.
VIS/IR SHOW SEVERAL AREAS OF CELLS THAT HAVE SHOWN RAPID ENHANCEMENT
IN THE PAST 30-60 MIN. FIRST AREA IS SE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE STNRY
MOD-HVY RAINS HAVE BEEN ONGOING TDY AND ANOTHER WAVE OF CELLS IS SEEN
APPROX 10-20MI AWAY IN 01Z IMAGE MOVING TO THE WNW. IN THE WRLY FLOW
REGIME..POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR THIS PATTERN TO REPEAT ITSELF UNTIL
SUNSET. EXPECT SIMILAR RAINRATES TO THOSE OBSERVED EARLIER TDY. OVER
NERN SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND ANOTHER STNRY CELL TO -47C CLOUD TOP TEMP
HAS HAD AN OVERSHOOTING TOP ON AND OFF WITH MOST ACTIVITY ABOUT 15MI N
OF HTO ALONG THE COAST AND NEW CELL ACTIVITY ABOUT TO MERGE IN FROM THE E.
.
WWD MOTION OF CNVTN HAS BROUGHT MOD-HVY RAINS TO NRN/ERN MAUI THAT
SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND AND EVENTUALLY AFFECT MOLOKAI AS
WELL. OVERSHOOTING TOPS ARE SEEN JUST N OF MAUI IN 21Z IMAGE.
.
PERHAPS MOST CONCERNING THOUGH IS NEW CNVTN THAT HAS RAPIDLY FORMED AND
COOLED TO -44C JUST W OF OAHU AND IN 01Z IMAGE WAS SEEN BACKBUILDING
TO THE E ACROSS THE ISLAND. IN ADDITION CNVTN JUST N OF THE ISLAND IS
WRAPPING SWD ACROSS N OAHU AND VIS ANIMATION REVEALS THERE MAY BE A
LOW LVL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY CROSSING THE ISLAND. SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY MOVE A LITTLE WWD AND AFFECT KAUAI AS WELL. THIS SETUP LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD ALLOW FOR WET WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE CHAIN FOR THE NEXT 3-4
HRS AT LEAST. CNVTN MAY LESSEN AFTER SUNDOWN BUT EXPECT RAINS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ISLANDS TO BE MOST LIKELY TO CONTINUE. PLEASE SEE WEB ADDRESS
IN ABOUT 10-15 MIN FOR GRAPHIC ANALYSIS.
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 2219 16077 2162 15483 1849 15515 2080 16052
.
NNNN
 
Full Size Graphic


-