SPC AC 250112
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0712 PM CST WED NOV 24 2004
VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE
HLG 25 WNW JKL 15 ENE LEX 15 WSW CMH 15 W MFD 30 WNW YNG 25 SE YNG
20 SSE HLG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE
CHS 15 NNE RDU 20 E CHO DCA 30 WNW SBY 25 SSW WAL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE
CTY 40 SSE GNV 25 SW DAB 20 SE ORL 20 WSW AGR 25 NW FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MLB 15 S FMY

...CONT... 35 WNW CTY 35 SSE AGS 30 S AND 35 ESE LGC 15 E BHM 25 ESE
BNA 40 SW LUK 40 W FWA AZO 50 NNE MTC ...CONT... 10 WSW ART 20 W RUT
PSM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NC INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC...

...OH VALLEY AREA...
THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NERN U.S SWWD THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY AND TO A SURFACE LOW IN SW OH. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD
FROM THE LOW THROUGH MIDDLE TN AND CNTRL AL. OVERNIGHT THE SURFACE
LOW WILL LIFT ENEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTS NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THREAT FOR PRIMARILY
ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS OH AS
FAST MOVING LOW TOPPED LINE SEGMENTS CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN ZONE OF
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY MARGINAL AND WILL
RESULT IN AN OVERALL DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT.

...FL...
PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE MOVING
INLAND ALONG THE W COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. THE 00Z RAOB FROM TAMPA SHOWED PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL WARM
LAYER AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. THREAT FOR PRIMARILY ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY EXIST AS SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVES
ONSHORE. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL HAVE TENDENCY TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE INLAND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.

...ERN NC THROUGH ERN VA...
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC LATER TONIGHT AS VORT MAX AND IS ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET
ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE CAROLINAS/MID
ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED THE
ENVIRONMENT IN THIS REGION...AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOW VERY
LITTLE CAPE. MID LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH ASCENT ACCOMPANYING
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. GIVEN STRENGTH OF FLOW WITH 50+ KT JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...WILL MAINTAIN CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK OF MAINLY ISOLATED
WIND STRONG WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LOW
TOPPED CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT.
..DIAL.. 11/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.