TRIS Online Record

Printable View

Title	RISK ANALYSIS OF TRAFFIC AND REVENUE FORECASTS FOR ROAD INVESTMENT PROJECTS
Accession No	00747833
Authors	Lam, WHK; Tam, M L
Journal Title	Journal of Infrastructure Systems Vol. 4 No. 1
Corp. Authors / Publisher	American Society of Civil Engineers ; American Society of Civil Engineers
Publication Date	19980300
Description	p. 19-27; Appendices(1); Figures(8); References(11); Tables(4)
Languages	English
Abstract	In this paper, a simulation model for risk analysis making use of the Monte Carlo technique is devised to incorporate the uncertainty in traffic and revenue forecasts for road investment projects. The risk analysis would give the traffic and revenue forecasts in specified years with a particular probability, or vice versa. These traffic and revenue forecasts and their probability levels will help the authorities or the private sector evaluate road investment projects scientifically and systematically. A case study of the proposed Zhuhai Neilingding Crossing in the Pearl River Delta area of China is used to illustrate the application of the risk analysis model. Demand elasticity is also introduced to investigate the effects of different toll charges on traffic demand, together with sensitivity analysis on some of the key variables behind the traffic and revenue forecasts.
Supplemental Information	This research was supported by Grant HKP 55/95E awarded to The Hong Kong Polytechnic University by the Research Grants Council, University Grants Committee of Hong Kong and Grant 350/382 awarded to the Research Committee of the Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
TRT Terms	Case studies ; Demand ; Economic forecasting ; Elasticity (Economics) ; Investments ; Mathematical models ; Monte Carlo method ; Revenues ; Risk analysis ; Road construction ; Simulation ; Toll roads ; Tolls ; Traffic flow ; Traffic forecasting
Geographical Terms	China
Other Terms	Zhuhai neilingding crossing
Subject Areas	H13 FORECASTING; I10 Economics and Administration
Contract Number	HKP 55/95E; 350/382
Availability	American Society of Civil Engineers Find a library where document is available Order Document: http://worldcat.org/issn/10760342
TRIS Files	HRIS
Database	TRIS Online

TRIS is a bibliographic database funded by sponsors of the Transportation Research Board (TRB), primarily the state departments of transportation and selected federal transportation agencies. TRIS Online is hosted by the National Transportation Library under a cooperative agreement between the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and TRB.