000 FGUS74 KSJT 271820 ESFSJT TXC049-059-081-083-095-105-151-207-235-253-267-307-319-327-353- 399-411-413-417-431-435-441-447-451-280030- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 120 PM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006 ...MILD TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE BRING SOME RELIEF... A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BROUGHT MILDER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF MOISTURE TO MUCH OF TEXAS. DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER...PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAVE RECEIVED OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN. MUCH OF THE LANDSCAPE HAS RESPONDED WITH IMPROVED VEGETATION GROWTH. THE MOISTURE RECEIVED OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS HAS RESULTED IN IMPROVED AGRICULTURAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AND RENEWED HOPE THAT CROPS AND PASTURES WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO PROSPER AGAIN. FROM OCTOBER 1 THROUGH OCTOBER 26...SAN ANGELO RECEIVED 2.21 INCHES OF RAIN. THE AVERAGE RAINFALL IN OCTOBER IS 2.57 INCHES. YEAR TO DATE...SAN ANGELO RECEIVED 16.81 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS 1.75 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. FROM OCTOBER 1 THROUGH OCTOBER 26...ABILENE RECEIVED 1.43 INCHES OF RAIN. THE AVERAGE RAINFALL IN OCTOBER IS 2.91 INCHES. YEAR TO DATE...ABILENE RECEIVED 19.49 INCHES OF RAIN...WHICH IS 1.34 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM)...ISSUED THROUGH THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER ON OCTOBER 24...SHOWS THAT WHILE RECENT RAINS HAVE CREATED IMPROVEMENTS...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPACT MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE USDM DEPICTS ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND ALONG THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CONCHO VALLEY AND NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... THE RAINS CONTINUE TO REPLENISH SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS AND GROUNDWATER SHORTAGES. LITTLE RUNOFF HAS BEEN PRODUCED FROM THE RAINFALL EVENTS DUE TO THE DRY GROUND. FLOWS IN AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RESERVOIRS CONTINUE TO STEADILY DECLINE AS STREAMFLOWS CANNOT SUSTAIN THE DAILY LOSSES FROM EVAPORATION...AGRICULTURAL AND MUNICIPAL USES. SINCE LITTLE RUNOFF HAS OCCURRED DURING THE YEAR...MANY LIVESTOCK TANKS ACROSS THE REGION ARE CONSIDERABLY LOW OR DRIED UP. RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF OCTOBER 26... / CURRENT CONSERVATION CURRENT % / ELEVATION CAPACITY CAPACITY CONSERVATION RESERVOIR (FT) (AC-FT) (AC-FT) CAPACITY FORT PHANTOM HILL 1627.32 70036 41690 60 LAKE STAMFORD 1413.20 51570 35420 69 HUBBARD CREEK 1169.30 318070 157310 49 HORDS CREEK LAKE 1892.20 8112 4850 60 LAKE BROWNWOOD 1418.90 131428 97480 74 E.V. SPENCE 1848.60 517272 72380 14 O.C. FISHER 1867.84 119200 8440 7 O.H. IVIE 1529.50 554340 231500 42 TWIN BUTTES (N+S) 1909.79 186200 41150 22 LAKE NASWORTHY 1870.86 10108 8290 82 FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... AS OF OCTOBER 27...AT LEAST 10 COUNTIES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT COUNTY WIDE OUTDOOR BURN BANS. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) AS A SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO 800...WITH 0 REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL. AS OF OCTOBER 26...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE REGION FALLS WITHIN THE 400 TO 600 RANGE. IN THIS RANGE FIRE INTENSITY BEGINS TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE. FIRES WILL READILY BURN IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXPOSING MINERAL SOILS IN SOME LOCATIONS. LARGER FUELS MAY BURN OR SMOLDER FOR SEVERAL DAYS CREATING POSSIBLE SMOKE AND CONTROL PROBLEMS. A FEW COUNTIES FALL WITHIN THE 200 TO 400 RANGE. IN THIS RANGE FIRES MORE READILY BURN AND WILL CARRY ACROSS AN AREA WITH NO GAPS. HEAVIER FUELS WILL STILL NOT READILY IGNITE AND BURN. ALSO...EXPECT SMOLDERING AND THE RESULTING SMOKE TO CARRY INTO AND POSSIBLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY. THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO WATCH OUT FOR KEY WEATHER THRESHOLDS OF WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 25 PERCENT. WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE EXCEEDED...EXPECT THE FIRE DANGER TO BE ELEVATED. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... IMPROVEMENTS IN SOIL MOISTURE HAVE BEEN MADE DURING THE LAST FEW RAINFALL EVENTS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ANALYZES THE PERCENT OF AVAILABLE SOIL MOISTURE AS COMPARED TO NORMAL. AS OF OCTOBER 26...THE AVAILABLE SOIL MOISTURE RANGES FROM 70 PERCENT OF NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TO 30 PERCENT OF NORMAL ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. THE SOIL MOISTURE DEFICIT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA RANGES FROM 20 MM TO 60 MM OR AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH TO 2.40 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS CROP WEATHER REPORT ISSUED OCTOBER 25 BY THE TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURE PROGRAM...THE FOLLOWING AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS WERE NOTED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING DOWN...SOME RAINFALL WAS REPORTED IN A FEW COUNTIES... PRODUCERS ARE PREPARING FIELDS FOR FALL PLANTING...PLANTED OATS HAVE EMERGED WITH MODERATE GROWTH...HAY IS BEING CUT AND BALED ON IRRIGATED PASTURES...COTTON HARVEST IS UNDER WAY BUT THE CROP WILL NOT BE AS GOOD AS LAST YEAR...RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...WINTER GRASSES AND FORBS ARE DOING WELL...STOCK TANKS CONTINUE TO NEED WATER...PECAN HARVEST IS UNDER WAY. OUTLOOK... THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER THROUGH JANUARY INDICATES THAT THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SHOWS ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL THROUGH JANUARY. THESE OUTLOOKS ARE CONSIDERING THE INTENSIFYING EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY SHOWS THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE. ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE INTENSIFYING EL NINO SHOULD PLAY A ROLE IN BRINGING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THIS WINTER. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ACROSS TEXAS...THIS DOES NOT NECESSARILY TRANSLATE INTO DROUGHT ELIMINATION. WITH LOW WATER SUPPLIES AFFECTING MANY AREAS...IT COULD TAKE A LONG TIME AND A LOT OF PRECIPITATION TO END THE DROUGHT COMPLETELY. FOR GRAPHICS AND WEB LINKS...GO TO OUR LOCAL DROUGHT WEBPAGE LOCATED AT... HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/SJT/HTML/CLIMATE/DROUGHT.HTML $$