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Welcome to the Flare Prediction System. This page
gives the active regions on the Sun today together with each regions probability
for producing C-, M-, or X-class events. The flare probabilities were calculated using
NOAA Space Environment Center data from nearly
eight years of data starting November 1988 and ending June 1996. The percentage
probabilities are based on the number of flares produced by regions classified using
the McIntosh classification scheme (McIntosh, P., 1990, Solar Physics, 125, 251) during cycle 22.
For example, between November 1988 and June 1996 there were 302 regions
classified Eai. As this class produced 62 M-class events,
the mean M-class flare rate is
~62/302 or ~0.21 flares per day. Assuming the number of flares per
unit time is governed by Poisson statistics, we can estimate a flaring probability
for the following 24-hours using P( one or more flares ) = 1 - exp( -mean ), i.e.,
P = 1 - exp( -0.21 ) ~ 0.19, or 19% for an Eai class region to produce one or more M-class
flares in the next 24-hours. See Wheatland, M. S., 2001, Solar Physics, 203,
87 and Moon et al., 2001, Journal of Geophysical Research-Space Physics,
106(A12) 29951 for further details.
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Region Flare Probabilities (%)
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Number
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McIntosh
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C-class
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M-class
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X-class
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0471
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Dai
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38(40)
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11(5)
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2(1)
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0473
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Hhx
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6(5)
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2(1)
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0(1)
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0477
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Cho
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15(15)
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2(1)
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1(1)
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0478
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Bxo
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5(5)
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1(1)
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0(1)
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NOTE:The probabilities in brackets give
the NOAA/SEC probability forecast for the occurrence of one
or more C-, M-, or X-class flares for the current date.
These data can also be found at NOAA's
3-day Space Weather Predictions page.
Please contact Peter Gallagher if you
have any comments or questions regarding this research.
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