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December 1996
This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield and production are from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data; numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply Estimates (WASDE-321) December 12, 1996.
The report was prepared by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, AGBOX 1045, 14th and Independence Ave., Washington, DC 20250-1000. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, or by calling (202) 720-0888, 9516, or by FAX (202) 720-8880.
The next issue of World Agricultural Production, Part 1, will be available electronically after 3:30 pm local time on January 13, 1997.
WORLD AGRICULTURAL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
December 12, 1996
UNITED STATES: Inundating precipitation has soaked the Far West as a series of Pacific storms move across the western States. Recent warm weather in the southern Great Plains has allowed late cotton harvesting and late autumn growth of winter grains. Near to above normal November precipitation throughout both hard red and soft red winter wheat areas boosted moisture for crop establishment, but slowed summer crop harvesting. Wintery weather prevailed in early December throughout the East.
SOUTH AMERICA: Above normal November rainfall favored germinating to vegetative summer crops and filling winter wheat across central Argentina. In southern Brazil, early December rainfall aided germinating soybeans and ended a drying trend that began in mid-November.
EUROPE: Above-normal precipitation in November in the United Kingdom, France, and Germany provided ample moisture for winter grains but hampered late-season harvesting. Warm, dry weather through mid-November in southeastern Europe helped fieldwork. Periodic showers favored newly planted winter grains in Spain while farther east, rain in northern Italy caused planting delays.
FSU-WESTERN: Unusually mild weather favored winter grains but caused crops to enter dormancy some 4 to 5 weeks later than usual. The combination of mild weather and lack of snow cover has left crops highly vulnerable to potential winterkill.
NORTHWEST AFRICA: In Morocco, generous rains favored winter grain emergence. In Algeria and Tunisia, prolonged dryness hampered germination and caused planting delays.
SOUTH AFRICA: Frequent, widespread showers across the corn belt greatly improve prospects for corn germination and establishment, especially in western growing areas. Showers occurred less frequently in coastal sugarcane areas. In Western Cape, unusually heavy rain in mid-November threatened the quality of mature winter wheat.
SOUTH ASIA: Persistent, heavy rain causes flooding and possible crop damage over a relatively small but agriculturally significant section of India's southeastern coast. The transition from kharif to rabi rice typically occurs this time of year, and has likely been disrupted by recent events, including the powerful tropical cyclone that struck in early November. Elsewhere, seasonable dryness favors cotton, coarse grains and oilseed maturation as well as winter grain and oilseed planting.
EASTERN ASIA: Above normal November rainfall increased moisture supplies for winter grains and oilseeds across most of the North China Plain and northern Yangtze Valley.
SOUTHEAST ASIA: In Java, ample November rainfall maintained favorable irrigation supplies for main-season rice. Early November rainfall slowed rice harvesting in Thailand, but seasonably dry weather later in the month aided fieldwork. Above normal November rainfall slowed rice harvesting across Vietnam and the Philippines.
AUSTRALIA: Periods of locally heavy rain in the east benefited newly planted sorghum, cotton, and sugarcane while causing some fieldwork disruptions. Unharvested winter grains may have been locally affected but fieldwork, in general, was likely complete in the wettest areas. Winter grains advanced towards maturity in the west and southeast with no major rain events.
(More details are available in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin. USDA/Joint Agricultural Weather Facility
PRODUCTION HIGHLIGHTS FOR 1996/97
December 1996
CHANGE
CURRENT MONTHLY MONTHLY FROM
COUNTRY ESTIMATE CHANGE CHANGE 1995/96
MMT MMT (PERCENT) (PERCENT)
WHEAT
World 579.6 +0.5 +0 +8
Production is estimated higher this month due to an increase in the total foreign
category.
United States 62.1 NC NC +5
Production is unchanged.
Total Foreign 517.5 +0.5 +0 +8
Production is estimated higher as increases in Argentina, Canada, and Australia
more than offset a decrease in Kazakstan.
Argentina 15.5 +1.0 +7 +68
Production is estimated at a record due to favorable weather. The harvest has
begun.
Canada 30.5 +0.7 +2 +22
Production is estimated higher based on a Statistics Canada report indicating
reduced area, but record yield. An unknown quantity of grain is still in the
fields under snow.
Australia 21.5 +0.5 +2 +27
Production is estimated higher due to an increase in yield prospects. This is
the second-largest production level since 1983/84.
European Union 99.0 +0.4 +0 +15
Production is estimated at a record level based on increases in yield for Denmark
and Austria.
Kazakstan 8.0 -2.0 -20 +23
Production is estimated lower based on harvest reports of reduced area and yield.
COARSE GRAINS
World 885.4 +1.8 +0 +11
Production is estimated at a record level this month due to an increase in the
total foreign category.
United States 267.3 NC NC +28
Production is unchanged.
Total Foreign 618.1 +1.8 +0 +5
Production is forecast higher mainly due to increases in Brazil and Kazakstan.
Brazil 34.8 +1.0 +3 +5
Production is estimated higher for corn as favorable weather improved yield
potential.
Kazakstan 3.1 +0.7 +27 +4
Production is estimated higher due to reports of increased barley area and yield.
Hungary 6.7 +0.3 +5 +6
Production is estimated higher as harvest results indicate improved corn yield.
Thailand 4.2 -0.2 -5 +8
Production is estimated lower due to reduced corn area and lower yield caused by
excessive rainfall.
RICE (MILLED BASIS)
World 376.8 -1.9 -0 +2
Production is estimated lower this month due to a decline in the total foreign
category. World production is still estimated to be a record.
United States 5.7 NC NC +0
Production is unchanged.
Total Foreign 371.1 -1.9 -1 +2
Production is forecast lower due to decreases in India, Brazil, Vietnam, and
Taiwan which more than offset an increase in South Korea.
India 81.0 -1.0 -1 +2
Production is estimated lower due to dryness in Orissa and repeated cyclonic
activity on the eastern coast.
Brazil 6.2 -0.8 -11 -9
Production is estimated lower due to reduced area. Farmers had difficulties
in securing the credit necessary for planting.
Vietnam 17.5 -0.3 -2 -1
Production is estimated lower due to flood damage and growers shifting to
higher quality but lower yielding rice varieties. Also, data is revised back
to 1992/93 based on a report from the U.S. agricultural attache in Hanoi.
Taiwan 1.4 -0.1 -7 -8
Production is estimated lower due to reduced area and yield caused by drought
in the spring-crop area.
South Korea 5.3 +0.2 +5 +13
Production is estimated higher due to record yield. Both growing season and
harvest weather were excellent.
Australia 1.0 +0.1 +9 +53
Production is forecast at a record level due to an expected increase in area
and yield as farmers respond to favorable economic returns and plentiful
supplies of irrigation water.
OILSEEDS
World 255.3 -2.0 -1 -0
Production is forecast lower based primarily on reduced output in the total
foreign category. There is a slight increase in the United States.
United States 75.2 +0.1 +0 +9
Production is estimated slightly higher due to an increase in cottonseed
output.
Total Foreign 180.1 -2.1 -1 -4
Production is forecast lower primarily due to reduced estimates for China,
Indonesia, India, Pakistan, and the FSU. Oilseeds in the European Union were
revised upward slightly.
China 39.0 -1.0 -3 -10
Production is estimated lower based on reduced area for rapeseed, soybeans,
and peanuts. Reduced government incentives for oilseeds and relatively low
prices caused growers to shift to alternative crops, especially grains.
Cottonseed output is adjusted upward due to an increase in the seed-to-lint
ratio.
FSU-12 8.3 -0.8 -9 -27
Production is estimated lower based on reduced yields for sunflowerseed and
cottonseed. Russian sunflowerseed yield is reduced because of dry conditions
in key producing areas. Cottonseed output is estimated lower based on reduced
yields primarily in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
India 25.0 -0.2 -1 +1
Production is estimated lower due to heavy October rains that reduced soybean
yield potential. Cottonseed output is up slightly based on harvest reports
from the northern zone which benefitted from an excellent monsoon and a
reduced incidence of pests.
Indonesia 2.5 -0.2 -6 NC
Production is forecast lower based on official government estimates of lower
soybean area and yield. Government incentives favored corn production over
soybeans.
Pakistan 3.4 -0.1 -4 -15
Production is estimated lower based on a revised cottonseed production
estimate.
European Union 12.7 +0.1 +1 -4
Production is estimated higher based on harvest reports. French rapeseed and
sunflowerseed are revised higher based on increased yields. In Spain, the
sunflowerseed yield is estimated higher.
PALM OIL
World 16.4 NC NC +5
No change this month. Production is forecast at a record, up 0.7 million tons
from last year.
COTTON
CHANGE
CURRENT MONTHLY MONTHLY FROM
COUNTRY ESTIMATE CHANGE CHANGE 1995/96
MBALES MBALES (PERCENT) (PERCENT)
World Total 85.9 -1.1 -1 -6
Production is forecast lower based on reduced output in the total foreign
category which more than offset an increase in the United States.
United States 18.7 +0.1 +1 +5
Production is estimated higher due to an increase in projected yield.
Total Foreign 67.2 -1.2 -2 -9
Production is forecast lower this month mainly due to declines in the FSU,
Pakistan, Greece, and Brazil which more than offset gains in India, Syria, and
the African Franc Zone countries.
FSU-12 6.6 -0.9 -12 -20
Production is forecast lower due to decreased output in Uzbekistan and
Turkmenistan as unfavorable weather throughout the growing season lowered
yield.
Pakistan 6.8 -0.3 -4 -17
Production is forecast lower due to heavy white fly, boll worm, and aphid
damage which reduced yield throughout Punjab Province. This Province produces
80 to 85 percent of the crop.
Greece 1.5 -0.2 -12 -27
Production is estimated lower due to heavy rains in early December and
less-than-favorable harvest weather throughout the northern cotton-growing area.
Brazil 1.4 -0.2 -13 -22
Production is forecast lower this month due to a decline in area caused by
high production costs, difficulty securing new financing, high cost of credit,
and lack of government support.
Australia 2.6 -0.1 -4 +35
Production is forecast lower resulting from less-than-average rainfall during
the past two months.
India 12.3 +0.1 +1 -2
Production is forecast higher due to increased yield as the major
cotton-producing states in the northern and central zones received excellent monsoon
rains. In addition, there was a low incidence of insects and disease.
African Franc
Zone 3.6 +0.1 +3 +16
Production is forecast higher due to increased area and yield resulting from
favorable growing and harvesting conditions.
Syria 1.1 +0.1 +12 +15
Production is forecast higher due to increased area and improved yield
resulting from favorable growing and harvesting conditions.
WHEAT : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Nov. 11 Dec. 12
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 524.750 536.877 579.062 579.589
Area MIL. HA 215.191 219.738 230.707 229.998
Yield MT/HA 2.439 2.443 2.510 2.520
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 63.167 59.400 62.099 62.099
Area MIL. HA 24.998 24.664 25.435 25.435
Yield MT/HA 2.527 2.408 2.441 2.441
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 461.583 477.477 516.963 517.490
Area MIL. HA 190.193 195.074 205.272 204.563
Yield MT/HA 2.427 2.448 2.518 2.530
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. MT 11.300 9.200 14.500 15.500
Area MIL. HA 5.100 4.781 6.600 6.600
Yield MT/HA 2.216 1.924 2.197 2.348
AUSTRALIA
Production MIL. MT 8.903 16.975 21.000 21.500
Area MIL. HA 8.003 9.721 11.100 11.100
Yield MT/HA 1.112 1.746 1.892 1.937
CANADA
Production MIL. MT 23.122 25.037 29.800 30.500
Area MIL. HA 10.838 11.253 13.000 12.650
Yield MT/HA 2.133 2.225 2.292 2.411
EU-15
Production MIL. MT 84.541 86.157 98.650 99.020
Area MIL. HA 15.786 16.127 17.075 17.060
Yield MT/HA 5.355 5.342 5.777 5.804
FSU-12
Production MIL. MT 59.904 58.923 66.160 64.160
Area MIL. HA 42.218 45.310 47.700 47.300
Yield MT/HA 1.419 1.300 1.387 1.356
EASTERN EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 33.962 34.990 26.360 26.360
Area MIL. HA 10.072 9.710 8.730 8.730
Yield MT/HA 3.372 3.604 3.019 3.019
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 99.300 102.215 109.000 109.000
Area MIL. HA 28.981 28.860 29.500 29.500
Yield MT/HA 3.426 3.542 3.695 3.695
INDIA
Production MIL. MT 59.840 65.470 62.620 62.620
Area MIL. HA 25.100 25.600 25.100 25.100
Yield MT/HA 2.384 2.557 2.495 2.495
PAKISTAN
Production MIL. MT 15.212 17.002 17.000 16.907
Area MIL. HA 8.034 8.170 8.320 8.376
Yield MT/HA 1.893 2.081 2.043 2.019
TURKEY
Production MIL. MT 14.700 15.500 16.500 16.500
Area MIL. HA 8.600 8.550 8.450 8.450
Yield MT/HA 1.709 1.813 1.953 1.953
MEXICO
Production MIL. MT 4.151 3.460 3.200 3.200
Area MIL. HA 0.965 0.870 0.800 0.800
Yield MT/HA 4.302 3.977 4.000 4.000
OTHER W. EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 0.805 0.943 0.975 0.975
Area MIL. HA 0.171 0.173 0.173 0.173
Yield MT/HA 4.708 5.451 5.636 5.636
==================================================================
Dec. 12,1996 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD
CORN : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Nov. 11 Dec. 12
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 560.020 513.963 571.174 572.614
Area MIL. HA 134.326 133.514 139.478 139.438
Yield MT/HA 4.169 3.850 4.095 4.107
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 256.621 187.305 235.349 235.349
Area MIL. HA 29.496 26.303 29.651 29.651
Yield MT/HA 8.700 7.121 7.937 7.937
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 303.399 326.658 335.825 337.265
Area MIL. HA 104.830 107.211 109.827 109.787
Yield MT/HA 2.894 3.047 3.058 3.072
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. MT 10.900 10.660 13.500 13.500
Area MIL. HA 2.500 2.600 3.200 3.200
Yield MT/HA 4.360 4.100 4.219 4.219
SOUTH AFRICA
Production MIL. MT 4.845 10.200 9.500 9.500
Area MIL. HA 2.952 3.300 3.400 3.400
Yield MT/HA 1.641 3.091 2.794 2.794
THAILAND
Production MIL. MT 3.800 3.700 4.200 4.000
Area MIL. HA 1.200 1.140 1.250 1.200
Yield MT/HA 3.167 3.246 3.360 3.333
EASTERN EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 22.716 25.371 24.670 24.970
Area MIL. HA 7.068 6.949 7.085 7.085
Yield MT/HA 3.214 3.651 3.482 3.524
EU-15
Production MIL. MT 28.298 28.952 33.890 34.030
Area MIL. HA 3.717 3.690 4.091 4.111
Yield MT/HA 7.613 7.846 8.284 8.278
FSU-12
Production MIL. MT 4.032 6.990 4.085 4.085
Area MIL. HA 1.880 2.465 2.097 2.097
Yield MT/HA 2.145 2.836 1.948 1.948
MEXICO
Production MIL. MT 17.005 16.000 17.500 17.500
Area MIL. HA 8.022 7.000 7.500 7.500
Yield MT/HA 2.120 2.286 2.333 2.333
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 99.280 112.000 117.000 117.000
Area MIL. HA 21.152 22.767 23.500 23.500
Yield MT/HA 4.694 4.919 4.979 4.979
BRAZIL
Production MIL. MT 37.440 32.480 33.000 34.000
Area MIL. HA 14.189 13.767 14.000 14.000
Yield MT/HA 2.639 2.359 2.357 2.429
PHILIPPINES
Production MIL. MT 4.534 4.300 4.300 4.300
Area MIL. HA 2.967 2.760 2.700 2.700
Yield MT/HA 1.528 1.558 1.593 1.593
INDONESIA
Production MIL. MT 5.500 6.200 6.000 6.000
Area MIL. HA 3.109 3.652 3.500 3.500
Yield MT/HA 1.769 1.698 1.714 1.714
CANADA
Production MIL. MT 7.043 7.271 7.000 7.200
Area MIL. HA 0.955 1.003 1.050 1.040
Yield MT/HA 7.375 7.249 6.667 6.923
==================================================================
Dec. 12,1996 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD
SOYBEANS : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Nov. 11 Dec. 12
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 137.783 124.387 133.731 132.581
Area MIL. HA 62.207 61.351 63.583 63.263
Yield MT/HA 2.215 2.027 2.103 2.096
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 68.493 59.243 65.388 65.388
Area MIL. HA 24.629 24.938 25.673 25.673
Yield MT/HA 2.781 2.376 2.547 2.547
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 69.290 65.144 68.343 67.193
Area MIL. HA 37.578 36.413 37.910 37.590
Yield MT/HA 1.844 1.789 1.803 1.788
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. MT 12.650 12.640 13.000 13.000
Area MIL. HA 5.700 5.980 6.000 6.000
Yield MT/HA 2.219 2.114 2.167 2.167
BRAZIL
Production MIL. MT 25.900 23.400 26.000 26.000
Area MIL. HA 11.680 10.950 12.200 12.200
Yield MT/HA 2.217 2.137 2.131 2.131
PARAGUAY
Production MIL. MT 2.200 2.300 2.500 2.500
Area MIL. HA 1.100 1.100 1.200 1.200
Yield MT/HA 2.000 2.091 2.083 2.083
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 16.000 13.500 13.300 12.500
Area MIL. HA 9.222 8.127 8.000 7.500
Yield MT/HA 1.735 1.661 1.663 1.667
INDONESIA
Production MIL. MT 1.680 1.560 1.700 1.550
Area MIL. HA 1.477 1.390 1.500 1.400
Yield MT/HA 1.137 1.122 1.133 1.107
EASTERN EUROPE
Production MIL. MT 0.256 0.303 0.352 0.352
Area MIL. HA 0.164 0.178 0.214 0.214
Yield MT/HA 1.561 1.702 1.645 1.645
EU-15
Production MIL. MT 1.032 0.939 1.090 1.090
Area MIL. HA 0.352 0.291 0.329 0.329
Yield MT/HA 2.932 3.227 3.313 3.313
CANADA
Production MIL. MT 2.251 2.293 2.170 2.170
Area MIL. HA 0.820 0.824 0.880 0.860
Yield MT/HA 2.745 2.783 2.466 2.523
==================================================================
Dec. 12,1996 Rod Paschal, Oilseeds Chairperson, PECAD
COTTON : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Nov. 11 Dec. 12
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. BALES 85.520 91.822 87.018 85.934
Area MIL. HA 32.149 35.429 33.232 33.324
Yield KG/HA 579 564 570 561
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. BALES 19.662 17.900 18.594 18.738
Area MIL. HA 5.391 6.478 5.172 5.172
Yield KG/HA 794 602 783 789
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. BALES 65.858 73.922 68.424 67.196
Area MIL. HA 26.758 28.951 28.060 28.152
Yield KG/HA 536 556 531 520
AUSTRALIA
Production MIL. BALES 1.539 1.929 2.700 2.600
Area MIL. HA 0.222 0.304 0.380 0.390
Yield KG/HA 1,509 1,382 1,547 1,452
CENTRAL AMERICA
Production MIL. BALES 0.052 0.065 0.047 0.047
Area MIL. HA 0.017 0.019 0.013 0.013
Yield KG/HA 666 745 787 787
EGYPT
Production MIL. BALES 1.170 1.088 1.600 1.680
Area MIL. HA 0.305 0.306 0.387 0.387
Yield KG/HA 835 774 900 945
MEXICO
Production MIL. BALES 0.458 0.860 1.100 1.100
Area MIL. HA 0.146 0.242 0.300 0.300
Yield KG/HA 683 774 798 798
PAKISTAN
Production MIL. BALES 6.250 8.200 7.100 6.800
Area MIL. HA 2.650 3.048 3.200 3.200
Yield KG/HA 514 586 483 463
SUDAN
Production MIL. BALES 0.400 0.490 0.550 0.550
Area MIL. HA 0.174 0.220 0.240 0.240
Yield KG/HA 501 485 499 499
TURKEY
Production MIL. BALES 2.886 3.845 3.500 3.500
Area MIL. HA 0.582 0.741 0.714 0.714
Yield KG/HA 1,080 1,130 1,067 1,067
FSU-12
Production MIL. BALES 8.778 8.260 7.450 6.570
Area MIL. HA 2.707 2.573 2.545 2.545
Yield KG/HA 706 699 637 562
ARGENTINA
Production MIL. BALES 1.608 1.800 1.950 1.950
Area MIL. HA 0.700 0.940 0.900 0.900
Yield KG/HA 500 417 472 472
BRAZIL
Production MIL. BALES 2.526 1.791 1.600 1.400
Area MIL. HA 1.220 1.130 0.880 0.750
Yield KG/HA 451 345 396 406
CHINA
Production MIL. BALES 19.900 21.900 17.500 17.500
Area MIL. HA 5.530 5.422 4.600 4.800
Yield KG/HA 784 879 828 794
INDIA
Production MIL. BALES 10.814 12.493 12.200 12.300
Area MIL. HA 7.861 8.650 8.500 8.500
Yield KG/HA 300 314 313 315
==================================================================
Dec. 12,1996 Ron Roberson, Cotton Chairperson, PECAD
RICE (Milled Basis) : World Production Estimates
1994/95 - 1995/96 and Forecast 1996/97
Production, Area, and Yield for Selected Producers
------------------------------------------------------------------
| | |PRELIMINAR | 1996/97 FORECAST
PRODUCER | UNIT | 1994/95 | 1995/96 | Nov. 11 Dec. 12
------------------------------------------------------------------
WORLD
Production MIL. MT 365.259 370.659 378.654 376.774
Area MIL. HA 148.090 148.547 148.699 148.487
Yield MT/HA 2.466 2.495 2.546 2.537
UNITED STATES
Production MIL. MT 6.549 5.678 5.682 5.682
Area MIL. HA 1.342 1.252 1.177 1.177
Yield MT/HA 4.880 4.535 4.828 4.828
TOTAL FOREIGN
Production MIL. MT 358.710 364.981 372.972 371.092
Area MIL. HA 146.748 147.295 147.522 147.310
Yield MT/HA 2.444 2.478 2.528 2.519
PAKISTAN
Production MIL. MT 3.447 3.800 3.800 3.800
Area MIL. HA 2.107 2.090 2.000 2.000
Yield MT/HA 1.636 1.818 1.900 1.900
BURMA
Production MIL. MT 9.280 10.000 10.440 10.440
Area MIL. HA 5.517 5.700 5.700 5.700
Yield MT/HA 1.682 1.754 1.832 1.832
THAILAND
Production MIL. MT 14.124 14.400 14.200 14.200
Area MIL. HA 9.196 9.250 9.200 9.200
Yield MT/HA 1.536 1.557 1.543 1.543
CHINA
Production MIL. MT 123.151 129.650 132.000 132.000
Area MIL. HA 30.171 30.700 30.700 30.700
Yield MT/HA 4.082 4.223 4.300 4.300
INDONESIA
Production MIL. MT 32.333 32.700 33.500 33.500
Area MIL. HA 11.439 11.400 11.600 11.600
Yield MT/HA 2.827 2.868 2.888 2.888
REP. OF KOREA
Production MIL. MT 5.060 4.694 5.080 5.320
Area MIL. HA 1.102 1.056 1.060 1.050
Yield MT/HA 4.592 4.445 4.792 5.067
JAPAN
Production MIL. MT 10.903 9.781 9.400 9.400
Area MIL. HA 2.212 2.118 1.967 1.967
Yield MT/HA 4.929 4.618 4.779 4.779
BRAZIL
Production MIL. MT 7.402 6.834 7.000 6.200
Area MIL. HA 4.242 3.880 4.200 3.700
Yield MT/HA 1.745 1.761 1.667 1.676
AUSTRALIA
Production MIL. MT 0.813 0.680 0.950 1.040
Area MIL. HA 0.128 0.149 0.155 0.165
Yield MT/HA 6.352 4.564 6.129 6.303
PHILIPPINES
Production MIL. MT 6.809 7.263 7.300 7.300
Area MIL. HA 3.668 3.924 3.950 3.950
Yield MT/HA 1.856 1.851 1.848 1.848
INDIA
Production MIL. MT 81.160 79.460 82.000 81.000
Area MIL. HA 42.500 42.300 42.500 42.500
Yield MT/HA 1.910 1.878 1.929 1.906
BANGLADESH
Production MIL. MT 16.833 17.687 18.000 18.000
Area MIL. HA 9.922 9.950 9.950 9.950
Yield MT/HA 1.697 1.778 1.809 1.809
==================================================================
Dec. 12,1996 Timothy Rocke, Grains Chairperson, PECAD
EARLY RELEASE BULLETIN
WORLD GREEN COFFEE PRODUCTION
World green coffee production in 1996/97 is forecast at 100.9 million 60-kilogram
bags, up 1.8 million bags from the June forecast, but shy of the record 103.7
million bag crop harvested in 1991/92. The 1996/97 forecast is up 12 percent
from the revised estimate of 89.9 million bags harvested last season. The
increase is principally the result of a 10.2 million bag increase in Brazilian
production.
Brazil's 1996/97 coffee estimate of 27.0 million bags is up 61 percent from last
year's frost and drought-affected crop, but is 2 percent less than the June
forecast. Colombia's 1996/97 coffee crop, forecast at 12.5 million bags, is down
3 percent from last year, down 4 percent from the June forecast, and well below
the record 18.0 million bags harvested in 1991/92. Indonesia's coffee production
for 1996/97 has been revised upward, to 7.5 million bags, from the preliminary
June forecast of 6.5 million. The current forecast is up 21 percent from last
season's drought-reduced crop.
_______________________________________
Franklin Hokana, Tropical Products Chairperson
Phone: (202) 720-0875
E-mail: Hokana@fas.usda.gov
WORLD GREEN COFFEE PRODUCTION
(1,000 60-Kg Bags) 1/
Region and Country 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97
Dec 2/
NORTH AMERICA
Costa Rica 2,475 2,492 2,595 2,500
Cuba 365 400 250 250
Dominican Repub 545 650 790 730
El Salvador 2,361 2,314 2,325 2,220
Guatemala 3,078 3,500 3,827 3,927
Haiti 430 440 440 440
Honduras 2,060 2,295 2,254 2,500
Jamaica 25 44 45 45
Mexico 4,200 4,030 5,400 5,400
Nicaragua 695 685 920 800
Panama 202 136 200 200
Trinidad and To 15 15 10 15
United States 3 228 238 241 209
TOTAL 16,679 17,239 19,297 19,236
SOUTH AMERICA
Bolivia 80 95 120 140
Brazil 28,500 28,000 16,800 27,000
Colombia 11,400 13,000 12,900 12,500
Ecuador 2,150 2,550 1,900 1,700
Guyana 5 5 5 5
Paraguay 70 50 70 60
Peru 1,022 1,453 1,850 1,450
Venezuela 920 920 1,260 1,100
TOTAL 44,147 46,073 34,905 43,955
AFRICA
Angola 30 70 90 90
Benin 35 35 35 35
Burundi 375 600 400 500
Cameroon 1,250 1,000 1,200 1,000
Central African 150 250 300 350
Congo 25 25 25 25
Cote d'Ivoire 2,700 3,733 2,900 4,000
Equatorial Guin 15 15 15 15
Ethiopia 3,700 3,800 3,800 3,900
Gabon 25 25 25 25
Ghana 25 30 30 30
Guinea 100 100 100 100
Kenya 1,230 1,584 1,580 1,422
Liberia 10 10 10 10
Madagascar 700 1,000 1,100 1,100
Malawi 125 70 80 80
Nigeria 42 50 55 55
Rwanda 487 80 350 300
Sierra Leone 80 70 70 70
Tanzania 567 820 850 700
Togo 185 250 100 250
Uganda 2,700 3,100 4,200 3,700
Zaire 900 1,300 1,000 1,000
Zambia 26 23 27 30
Zimbabwe 65 155 75 200
TOTAL 15,547 18,195 18,417 18,987
ASIA
India 3,465 3,060 3,700 3,200
Indonesia 7,400 6,400 6,000 7,500
Laos 130 100 150 150
Malaysia 150 153 158 160
Philippines 875 878 850 905
Sri Lanka 60 60 60 60
Thailand 1,200 1,400 1,300 1,400
Vietnam 2,500 3,500 4,000 4,300
Yemen 65 65 65 65
TOTAL 15,845 15,616 16,283 17,740
OCEANIA
New Caledonia 5 5 5 5
Papua New Guine 1,080 1,050 1,000 1,000
TOTAL 1,085 1,055 1,005 1,005
WORLD TOTAL 93,303 98,178 89,907 100,923
1/ One bag = 132.276 pounds.
2/ Coffee marketing year begins October in some countries and April or
July in others.
3/ Includes Puerto Rico and Hawaii.
NOTE: Production estimates for some countries include cross-border
movements.
December 1996 Production Estimates and Crop Assesment, FAS, USDA
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