FXUS64 KCRP 070818
AFDCRP

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
320 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

SHORT-TERM (TODAY TIL 00Z FRI)...07Z SURFACE CHART SHOWS COLD FRONT 
HAS MOVED INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
RELAXED ALONG THE COAST. KCRP VAD WIND PROFILE WEAKER THAN THE PAST 
TWO NIGHTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRATUS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF 
THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE BUT IT WILL ONLY BE A 
MATTER OF TIME UNTIL STRATUS MAKES IT THERE ALSO. MODELS HAVE BEEN 
BULLISH IN MIXING LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER EAST THE PAST FEW DAYS. VAD 
WIND PROFILE SHOWS MOIST LAYER/SOUTHERLY FLOW UP TO 5 KFT. 50H 
HEIGHTS SLOWLY RISE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH INVERSION KEEPING A 
STRANGLE HOLD ON THE REGION. WITH INVERSION IN PLACE AND LOW LEVEL 
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHEAST...CLOUDS NOT LIKELY TO BREAK OUT UNTIL LATE 
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL GO TOWARD THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR 
TODAY. SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON IN 
ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. 
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE 
CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. WEAK WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL INCREASE 
THIS AFTERNOON TO SCA LEVELS. WINDS OFFSHORE HAVE WEAKENED BUT SEAS 
REMAIN 7 TO 8 FEET POSSIBLY DUE TO SWELLS FROM LOW LEVEL JET FARTHER 
TO THE EAST. WILL NEED TO KEEP SCA GOING FOR OFFSHORE WATERS FOR AT 
LEAST THIS MORNING UNTIL WAVE HEIGHTS SUBSIDE. AS THE SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS...STRONG CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER KANSAS 
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT 
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO SCA LEVELS. NOTHING IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS TO 
PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION BUSTING THE CAP WITH SMOKE 
PLUME TRAPPED BELOW IT OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE 
ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY EXCEPT FOR AN INCREASE IN WINDS.

LONG-TERM(THURS NIGHT THRU TUES)...PERSISTENT UPPER LVL PATTERN WITH 
TROF SITUATED OVER THE WEST AND FLAT RIDGE OVER THE SE WILL CONTINUE 
TO KEEP A FAST MOVING STORM TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE FA.  MODELS ARE 
SHOWING NEXT LOW BOMBING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND 
WHICH WILL PULL HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS BEHIND IT.  
UKMET/ECMWF APPEAR TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC HIGH...AND PREFER THE 
GFS SOLN OF A STALLING FRONT IN CENTRAL TX SUN/MON AS HIGH MOVES OFF 
TO THE EAST.  THIS WOULD TURN 850 WINDS MORE SELY AND RESULT IN WEAK 
COLD ADV BY SUN/MON WITH 850 TEMPS/THICKNESS FALLING SLIGHTLY.  THUS 
WILL COOL MAX TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA 
MADRE SHOULD LIGHT UP ON SUN AFTERNOON.  FLOW LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH 
FOR MEXICAN CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE EWD INTO THE CWA SUN EVENING 
WITH A DISABLED CAP OVER THE N/W CWA.  HWR...WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR 
MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE INTRODUCING POPS.  EXPECT WINDS TO BE 
STRONGEST ON FRI...WITH SCA FOR THE BAYS ON THU AND ALL ZONES BY FRI 
EVENING AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER THE PANHANDLE.  WINDS SHOULD 
WEAKEN SAT/SUN DUE TO APPROACHING FRONT WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARMER 
TEMPS AND MORE PROBLEMS WITH SMOKE/HAZE DUE TO LESS MIXING.  GFS 
SHOWS A MORE SLY STORM TRACK BY NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER 30-40KT SSW 850 
WINDS RETURN...APPEARS DRY WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE.

CRP EE 091/078 090/077 089 000         
VCT EE 089/076 088/075 088 000        
LRD BB 102/079 102/077 101 000        

.CRP...SCA THIS MORNING GMZ270-275
       SCA THIS AFTERNOON GMZ230-235
       SCA TONIGHT GMZ 230-235-250-255-270-275.

89/TMT...SHORT-TERM
92/TMR...LONG-TERM