AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO                                              
200 PM MDT MON AUG 16 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM...                                                                  
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)                                                             
CURRENTLY...WV AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING TROF ACROSS WESTERN US                  
COMPOSED OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER NEVADA AND SMALLER LOBE OVER                
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. LIGHTNING BEGINNING TO FIRE UP ALONG LEADING EDGE             
OF MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THIS TROF...AND ALONG                 
HIGHER TERRAIN. CENTRAL US TROF HAS SLID INTO EASTERN PLAINS...AND              
BROUGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND TO NE COLORADO. THIS BOUNDARY IS             
EXPECTED IN OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.                                      
FOR TONIGHT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STILL A BIT LIMITED...WITH               
CAPES RUNNING LESS THAN 1000 J/KG OVER MTNS AND PWS LESS THAN THREE             
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. HOWEVER TS ARE SLOW MOVERS WITH RIDGE                      
OVERHEAD...SO COULD SEE SOME ISOLD HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH BULK SHEAR              
RUNNING LESS THAN 20KTS ACROSS AREA...WOULD ANTICIPATE ONLY SEVERE              
THREAT MAY BE ONE OR TWO PULSE SEVERE STORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.               
MAY ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS OUT EAST WITH PASSING TROF AND SFC BDRY...            
CAPES ARE A LITTLE BETTER HERE BUT SHEAR REMAINS LOW. SHOULD NOTE               
THAT LAPSE RATES OUT WEST AND OVER SAN LUIS VALLEY APPROACH 9.5 C/KM            
LATER TODAY...WHICH WOULD TYPICALLY SPIN UP DUST DEVILS. COULD SEE              
SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF THESE NEAR GROWING TS. UPPED SW MTN POPS TO           
SCATTERED OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE AND LIFT STILL MOVING IN.                       
BOTH ETA/AVN BRING ENERGY OVER COLORADO IN THE EARLY TO MID                     
AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY WESTERN ZONES. MAY SEE AN INITIAL BURST OF             
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE NOON HOUR WITH INITIAL VORT PER                  
MESOETA...WITH MANY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND MOST MOISTURE AOA 600 MB              
MAKING DRY LTG A THREAT. THINK ATMOSPHERE WILL THEN MOISTEN UP RATHER           
QUICKLY AS PLUME MOVES OVER AND TS COVERAGE INCREASES. WITH THE                 
MOISTURE INCREASE...PLUS NO CRITICAL FUELS...WILL HAVE NO FIRE                  
WEATHER HEADLINES FOR NOW. DECREASED EAST PLAINS POPS TO 10S AS DON'T           
THINK BEST MSTR AND LIFT WILL BE OVER THEIR AREA BY 0Z. KC                      
.LONG TERM...                                                                   
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)                                                      
...MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME                   
   LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS HIER TRRN...ALONG WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP OVER THE            
   PLAINS...                                                                    
SHORTWAVE WHICH IS CLEARLY INDICATED IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER            
C NEVADA AS I WRITE WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER DURING THE                
EARLY PART OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO              
GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY AROUND THE RIDGING OVER THE REGION...COME                
OVER "THE TOP" AND THEN AFFECT OUR WEATHER. HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT               
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON OUR WX IS THE BIG UNKNOWN. AS THIS IS                  
GOING ON...A MAJOR TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE             
COUNTRY...USHERING IN MUCH COLDER WX FOR THE NC PART OF THE CONUS.              
WEDNESDAY...ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT WAVE WILL BE ASSISTING A COLD                 
FRONT INTO THE REGION. BELIEVE FRONT WILL BE COMING IN A BIT                    
EARLIER THEN MODELS PROG IT...AND HAVE TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A BIT ON              
THIS DAY. FAR S PARTS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL NOT FEEL THE EFFECTS            
OF THIS SYSTEM DURING MOST OF THE DAY AND LEFT THESE AREAS ON THE               
WARM SIDE. I AM A BIT CONCERNED WITH RATHER IMPRESSIVE FORCING AND              
LOTS OF MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE REGION THAT WE MAY SEE SOME HEAVY             
RAINS OVER THE INTERIOR MTN AREAS...AND FLASH FLOODING OVER THE                 
HIER TRRN MAY BECOME AN ISSUE ON THIS DAY. THIS SITUATION WILL HAVE             
TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.                                                        
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH MOST OF PLAINS AND              
WILL AFFECT HIER TRRN TO A CERTAIN EXTENT...ESPECIALLY C MTN AREAS.             
DECIDED TO KEEP LOTS OF CLOUD OVER THE REGION ALL NIGHT LONG WITH               
DEVELOPING UPSLOP AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN FCST. SCT STORMS            
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING EVERYWHERE EARLY WED NIGHT BUT SHOULD                    
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF...BUT PRECIP OF SOME EXTENT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO           
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.                                                            
THURSDAY...TWEAKED MAXES DOWN A BIT AND WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED              
IF LATER SHIFTS TWEAK THEM DOWN SOME MORE. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS                
THIS DAY ALL AREAS...AND CLOUDS ON THE PLAINS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR             
ON THE PLAINS...IF THEY CLEAR AT ALL. WITH THE DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD             
AND LOTS OF MOISTURE AROUND...IT COULD BE ON THE DREARY SIDE ON                 
THIS DAY OVER MOST OF THE REGION. IF IT SHOULD NOT BE SO DREARY AND             
WE GET MORE SUN THAN NOT...THEN THIS COULD BE A RATHER BIG SVR WX DAY           
AS PRETTY GOOD SHEAR AND STOUT UPPER LVL FORCING WILL BE IN PLACE               
(AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE SHORT RANGE GFS). ATTM...I'M LEANING MORE            
TOWARDS IT BEING TOO STABLE FOR ANY SIGNIF SVR.                                 
AS FOR THE REST OF THE FCST...DID NOT MAKE AND SIGNIF CHANGES.                  
OVERALL...MOD TO LIGHT NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPS REMAINING               
ON THE SEASONABLE SIDE. WITH NW FLOW...EXPECT CHANCE OF                         
SHOWERS/STORMS EVERY AFTERNOON.                                                 
SURROUNDING WFO'S...THANKS FOR THE COORD. \/HODANISH                            
&&                                                                              
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE                                         
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   co                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL                                             
1215 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. OTHERWISE PARTLY TO             
MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON AND A BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE                  
LOWER 80S AND SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH.                                          
NOON SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW OHIO AND                
RIDING SW ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND INTO ARKANSAS. 1014 MB LOW               
PRESSURE WAS OVER SE SD WITH A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND             
NW KS. AREA OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF THIS LOW OVER CENTRAL IOWA WHERE             
SLIGHT RISK IS TODAY. THIS CONVECTION IS MOVING ESE TOWARD SOUTHERN             
WI AND NORTHERN IL FROM I-80 NORTH. THIS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS             
UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND MOVING EAST INTO WI               
THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SMALLER AREA OF CONVECTION WAS OVER SW MO               
AND DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST.                                                       
RUC AND ETA KEEPING CENTRAL IL DRY THROUGH 00Z...THEN QPF MOVES INTO            
NORTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING FROM PEORIA NORTH WHILE BETTER CHANCE            
OF CONVECTION NORTH OF I-80 WHERE BRUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES.           
NOON TEMPS IN THE MID 70S AND SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S MOST              
AREAS WITH SSW WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH AND STRONGEST NW OF THE IL RIVER               
WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT A BIT TIGHTER. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL LOW TODAY            
WITH UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.                                                   
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
PROBLEM AREA TODAY IS THE TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO MOVE INTO                      
CWA...STRETCH OUT EAST-WEST...STALL AND WASH OUT THIS WEEK. THE                 
RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE            
WEEK. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS.              
GFS MAY BE A LITTLE BIT BETTER ON FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVEMENT AND A BIT             
SLOWER ON THE START OF PRECIPITATION.                                           
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...                                   
MOISTURE CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVE VORT MAX IN                 
NROTHEASTERN SD AND MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST. BOTH MODELS SIMILAR IN               
DEPICTION OF VORT PATTERN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS TOWARD LOWER            
GREAT LAKES AND WEAKENS. IT WILL DRAG FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH IT INTO               
CWA ON TUESDAY...BUT THE FRONTAL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND WASH OUT             
IN OUR REGION. 00Z UPPER AIR AND SURFACE DATA THIS EVENING SHOWS                
MOISTURE RETURN ALREADY OCCURRING NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS                     
REGION...HOWEVER DUE TO THE SLOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVEMENT...THE             
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEEN LIMITED SO FAR FOR MS VALLEY AREA. LIGHT               
SOUTHERN WINDS TODAY THOUGH SHOULD ALLOW SOME MOIST AIR TO MOVE BACK            
INTO AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT WITH THE SPEED OF FRONT STILL LIKE            
THE CURRENT FORECAST TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT AND                
THEN MAINLY ON TUESDAY. WILL THEREFORE NOT CHANGE ANY OF THE CURRENT            
TIMING ON BRINGING IN THE PRECIPITATION.                                        
THOUGH FIRST FRONT WASHES OUT OVER AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING               
MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY               
NIGHT BEFORE THE SECOND FRONT REACHES AREA. IF THERE IS A POSSIBLE              
"BREAK" IN THE PRECIPTATION CHANCES...IT WOULD BE ON WEDNESDAY TO               
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTS. HOWEVER WITH PRECIPITATION              
ALREADY IN THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE CONTINUITY TIL BETTER SYSTEM              
TIMING CAN BE SEEN.                                                             
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...                                          
SECOND FRONT ON TODAY'S MODEL RUN APPEARS TO BE WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS            
RUN WITH NOT AS SIGNIFICANT A SURFACE HIGH BEHIND IT. MODELS STILL              
CONTINUE TREND OF DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER VORTEX IN                   
CANADA.  MINOR WAVES ROTATING AROUND UPPER SYSTEM ARE SHOWN                     
TRIGGERING WAVE ON STALLED FRONT...AND MOVING OVER MIDWEST. WILL                
KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS TIL SATURDAY. NEW 00Z GFSLR            
MODEL RUN A LITTLE DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AS HUDSON BAY                 
VORTEX PROGGED TO ROTATE ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO AREA ON                    
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES LED US              
TO LEAVE CURRENT DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE                
WATCHED LATER.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
IL...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
HUETTL/GOETSCH                                                                  
</PRE></TT></td>   il                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA                                          
327 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SCNDRY S/W VSB IN WV IMAGERY IS ANTICIPATED TO COME INTO PLAY FM THE            
4-7PM TIME FRAME ALG THE FNT MOVING INTO THE NWRN CRNR ATTM.                    
PROFILERS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH WIND HOWEVER FOR ANY SGFNT FNTL                  
CONVERGENCE...BUT THE WAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO RELEASE THE                      
INSTABILITY OF 1-2K J/KG. NW WNDS ALF ARND THE DEEP UPR CYC OVR                 
CANADA SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR A FEW STORMS TO ROTATE. THE              
13KM RUC REMAINS EMPHATIC ABT PCPN MOVS EWD ACRS THE CWA                        
OVRNGT...AND NOT MUCH TMR. KEPT CONTINUITY GOING WITH SML CHCS IN               
THE SE. BNDRY GOING STNRY IN NRN MO TMR EVENING AHD ANOTHER S/W IN              
THE WNW FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE INDUSTRIOUS WITH THIS WAVE WHEREAS THE            
ETA/S ARE NOT AS MUCH. CUR FCSTS HAVE CHC POPS ACRS THE S AND WE                
WILL CONTINUE THAT THINKING...FIGURING THE FNT WL NOT MOVE NWD MUCH             
IN SUCH A FLOW PTRN. NXT SGFNT FNT ARRIVES LTR THIS WEEK WITH A                 
FRESH AMS...WITH ANY PCPN THREAT SMALL THROUGH THE WKEND ATTM. TMPS             
WL APPROACH NORMAL OVER THE NXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A FALLBACK AGN              
LATE IN THE WEEK. LOOKING LIKE AUGUST WILL INDEED BE BELOW IF NOT               
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR TMPS.                                                     
&&                                                                              
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MYERS                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ia                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
420 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES TONIGHT/TUE AND THEN TIMING                 
FRONT AND SHRA INTO THE AREA WED.                                               
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW PERSISTENT STRONG RIDGE               
OVER WRN NAMERICA WITH 5H HEIGHTS UP TO 585DM OVER ALASKA WHILE                 
DOWNSTREAM TROF COVERS ERN NAMERICA. RECENT RESTRENGTHENING OF WRN              
RIDGE HAS SENT A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVES INTO NRN CANADA WHICH              
ARE ON THEIR WAY TO FORMING LONG ADVERTISED DEEP POLAR VORTEX VCNTY             
OF HUDSON BAY. CLOSER TO HOME...A SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING THRU WI THIS             
AFTN WITH BULK OF PCPN STAYING CLOSER TO BETTER FORCING OVER WI.                
NONETHELESS...THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF -SHRA OVER SW UPPER            
MI THIS AFTN...BUT NO TSRA. AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC TROF IS STILL                 
HANGING BACK OVER MN...AND SOME SHRA/TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG IT               
RECENTLY. TO THE NW OF SFC TROF...A FEW SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED AS                  
WELL...SUGGESTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHRA HERE TUE.                             
MODELS ARE OVERALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THRU WED. ETA CONTINUES TO BE              
FASTER WITH FROPA ON WED...BUT TIMING IS VERY CLOSE NOW TO THE MUCH             
MORE CONSISTENT AND SLOWER GFS. IN THE SHORT TERM...SHORTWAVE OVER              
WI HEADS TO LWR MI TONIGHT. WILL BASICALLY USE TRENDS OF PCPN                   
COVERAGE/MOVEMENT THIS AFTN FOR FCST TONIGHT. WILL TREND POPS FROM              
LOWEST N TO HIGHEST S. IN GENERAL...EXPECT A SLOW DIMINISHING                   
TREND ON PCPN COVERAGE AS SHORTWAVE WEAKENS DUE TO FLOW BECOMING                
MORE CONFLUENT WITH TIME. WILL TIME END OF PCPN ROUGHLY WITH PASSAGE            
OF WEAK SFC TROF WHICH MODELS SHOW EXITING ERN FCST AREA SOMETIME               
TUE MORNING.                                                                    
WEAK PRES GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF SFC TROF WILL ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF            
LAKE BREEZES TUE...AND THE LIGHT WRLY FLOW WILL FAVOR ENHANCED                  
CONVERGENCE OVER ERN FCST AREA AS LAKE BREEZES FROM SUPERIOR AND                
MICHIGAN HEAD INLAND. SO QUESTION IS POTENTIAL FOR AFTN CONVECTION              
TO FIRE NEAR BOUNDARIES. 12Z ETA IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO DEVELOP                  
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SUFFICIENT TO CAP CONVECTION OVER THE E. AT THE            
SFC...ETA DWPTS IN THE LOW 60S DON'T LOOK TOO BAD GIVEN UPSTREAM                
DWPTS AND POTENTIAL FOR DWPTS TO RISE A BIT WITH LAKE BREEZE OFF                
LAKE MICHIGAN. ETA/GFS MOS DWPTS ARE ALSO IN THE 60-63F RANGE.                  
SO...MODIFIED ETA FCST SOUNDING FOR SFC T/TD OF 73/61F NEAR KERY AT             
18Z YIELDS CAPE OF ABOUT 1000J/KG. K INDEX IS IN THE 25-30 RANGE.               
CERTAINLY ENOUGH POTENTIAL TO MAINTAIN AFTN TSRA CHC FROM                       
ALGER/DELTA/MENOMINEE EWD. FARTHER W...HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT A                 
COUPLE OF SHRA/TSRA MIGHT ALSO DEVELOP THERE. ETA FCST SOUNDING SW              
OF MICHIGAMME WITH SFC T/TD OF 72/56F IS SUFFICIENT TO EXCEED MID               
LEVEL CAP. FOR NOW...WILL INTRO ISOLD AFTN SHRA/TSRA AS FAR W AS                
BARAGA/IRON COUNTIES SINCE INLAND AREAS THERE MORE LIKELY TO WARM               
THE MOST WHILE SOME SFC CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP CLOSER TO LAKE                 
SUPERIOR. EXPECT ENOUGH MARINE INFLUENCE OVER WRN COUNTIES WITH WRLY            
FLOW OFF LAKE TO PREVENT ANY CONVECTION THERE.                                  
A GENERALLY QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED TUE NIGHT. SW FLOW BEGINS TO PICK              
UP LATE (ESPECIALLY W) AHEAD OF SHARP COLD FRONT QUICKLY DROPPING SE            
THRU SCNTRL CANADA TOWARD UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THOUGH POTENTIAL            
LOOKS MINIMAL BEFORE SUNRISE...HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA             
LATE TUE NIGHT FROM KEWEENAW W AND N DUE TO PROXIMITY OF LOW-LEVEL              
JET/850MB THETA RIDGE AND ARRIVAL OF WEAK DEEP LAYER QVECTOR                    
CONVERGENCE.                                                                    
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS UPPER MI WED WITH PASSAGE COINCIDENT              
WITH PEAK HEATING CNTRL/E. SHARP LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT               
BUT FAIRLY WEAK DEEP LAYER FORCING AND UNFAVORABLE RIGHT EXIT REGION            
OF JET OVERHEAD SUGGESTS ONLY A NARROW BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR             
WITH FRONT. LIKELIHOOD OF PCPN LOOKS PRETTY GOOD THOUGH GIVEN TIMING            
OF FROPA AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING. WILL UP POPS TO LIKELY CNTRL/E DUE              
TO FROPA COINCIDENT WITH PEAK HEATING. AS FOR SVR POTENTIAL...DEEP              
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT PER ETA/GFS WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED                      
CONVECTION AND POSSIBILITY OF SVR STORMS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN TIME OF             
DAY. STILL LOOKS LIKE A WARM DAY AHEAD OF FRONT AS 850MB TEMPS SURGE            
TO AROUND 14C WITH ARRIVAL OF THERMAL RIDGE. SW FLOW AND DECENT                 
DISPLAY OF SUNSHINE AHEAD OF FRONT ARGUES FOR TEMPS NEARING 80 CNTRL            
AND E AWAY FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. HAVE TRIED TO SHOW FALLING TEMPS IN              
THE GRIDS BEHIND FRONT FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTN. SHOULD BE BREEZY            
WITH DEEP MIXING AND LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVING.                                    
PCPN WILL END QUICKLY WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT...AND WILL ONLY CARRY               
EVENING CHC OVER SE/E COUNTIES. 850MB TEMPS PLUMMET TO NEAR 0C BY               
06Z THU...BUT WITH SHARP DRYING AND HEALTHY SUBSIDENCE WED                      
NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS OFF             
SUPERIOR AND CERTAINLY NOT ANY LAKE EFFECT SHRA. SKIES SHOULD BECOME            
PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY BEHIND FRONT.                                               
THU LEADING INTO START OF EXTENDED PERIOD HAS BEEN COMPLICATED BY               
12Z MODEL RUNS WHICH ARE MUCH FASTER WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING               
AROUND POLAR VORTEX. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE TIMING BTWN LATEST             
RUNS AND EARLIER RUNS WITH NEXT FROPA EARLY FRI.                                
FRI-MON...GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT                      
PERTAINING TO WEATHER IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL BE             
DOMINATED BY DEEP POLAR VORTEX VCNTY OF HUDSON BAY EARLY ON. BY THE             
END OF THIS PERIOD...VORTEX WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NE...BUT              
TROFFING WILL STILL EXTEND S INTO THE AREA. OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE             
WILL BE REQUIRED TO GOING FCST FOR FRI-SUN. THERE ARE STILL                     
INDICATIONS OF A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THRU THE AREA IN THE THU NIGHT              
TO FRI NIGHT TIME FRAME TO PROVIDE A CHC OF SHRA. WILL MAINTAIN DRY             
FCST FOR SAT/SUN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE AREA. 00Z AND                     
ESPECIALLY 06Z/12Z GFS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE NRN                 
PLAINS SUN/MON AND THEN MOVING INTO THE WRN LAKES LATER MON. HAVE               
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS LATEST TREND AND WILL LEAVE MON DRY FOR               
NOW. TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD WITH SOME MODERATION              
EXPECTED SUN/MON AS VORTEX TO THE N BEGINS TO LIFT NE.                          
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ROLFSON                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1122 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THRU SOUTHERN MN. PCPN                     
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE HAS AVOIDED THE U P THUS FAR...KEEPING TO             
THE SOUTH AND WEST WHERE HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES. MORNING GRB/APX            
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE EXTENT OF THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. SFC FRONT ITSELF             
LAGS THE UPPER TROF AND IS WELL TO OUR WEST IN MN...AND SWLY BLYR               
FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA IS STILL ANTICYCLONIC. CURRENT DEWPTS ARE ONLY              
IN THE LOWER 50S (UPR 50S NEAR WARM LAKE MICHIGAN)...AND UPSTREAM               
OBS IN NRN WI SHOW SIMILAR VALUES. THUS PCPN IS HAVING A HARD TIME              
MAKING IT THIS FAR NE.                                                          
ETA/RUC CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME INCREASE IN H8 THETA-E ADVECTION AND              
UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS AFTN AND EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO             
WI...AND THIS WOULD SEEM TO CONCUR WITH RADAR TRENDS SHOWING PCPN               
ADVANCING INTO NRN WI. ALTHOUGH DYNAMICS ARE WEAK...THEY SHOULD FOR             
THE MOST PART BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR AND LACK OF LOW                 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE (THOUGH QPF WILL NOT BE MUCH). BEST CHANCE OF PCPN            
WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U P...AND IN THIS AREA HAVE SUSTAINED               
SCATTERED POPS THIS AFTN/EVNG. HAVE SCALED BACK WORDING TO ISOLD ON             
THE KEWEENAW WHERE SUPPORT IS WEAKEST. RIDGE WILL HOLD ON IN THE                
EAST UNTIL THIS EVENING...SO DRY FCST THIS AFTN FOR LOCATIONS EAST              
OF MQT-ESC LOOK GOOD. WITH A LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ETA/RUC               
SBCAPES ARE TOO LOW (LESS THAN 100 J/KG) TO WARRANT MENTIONING TS.              
PCPN WILL END IN THE WEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND IN THE EAST EARLY               
TUE AS THE TROF MOVES THROUGH AND MID LEVEL DRYING/H8-H5 Q-VECTOR               
DIVERGENCE WORKS IN. CURRENT FCST HAS THIS WELL IN HAND.                        
HIGHS FROM MID 60S IN THE SOUTHWEST (WHERE PCPN WILL BEGIN SHORTLY)             
TO LOWER/MID 70S IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST LOOK GOOD. BLYR WINDS                  
INCREASE TO 15-20KT THIS AFTN...ENOUGH TO OFFSET A LAKE SUPERIOR                
BREEZE ALTOGETHER...SO WARMEST READINGS SHOULD BE ALONG THE NORTHERN            
SHORE.                                                                          
HAVE ALREADY TWEAKED TEMP/WX GRIDS. UPDATED ZONES COMING SHORTLY.               
&&                                                                              
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
MID LVL DRYING (AIRMASS FM CQYD) CONTINUES E BEHIND DEPARTING MID               
LVL TROF AXIS TUE MRNG WITH ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/              
STRENGTHENING MID LVL SUBSIDENCE INVRN. THIS PROCESS IS INTERRUPTED             
A BIT IN THE GFS FCST WITH ARRIVAL OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE                        
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHRTWV. THIS SYS NOW OVER EXTREME SW CAN...AND            
PREFER ETA FCST OF THIS SHRTWV MOVING WELL S OF FA AND BEING WEAKER.            
ETA FCST SDNGS HOWEVER SHOW CONSIDERABLE SBCAPE DVLPG DURING THE DAY            
UNDER THE MID LVL DRYING/DEPARTING CLDS. MODEL SHOWS CAPES INCRSG TO            
AS HI AS 1500 J/KG...BUT FCST SFC DWPTS APRCHG 65 SEEM UNREALISTIC.             
MODIFICATION OF ETA FCST SDNGS FOR SFC DWPT IN THE 55 TO 60 RANGE               
(AS OBSVD BEHIND TROF THIS MRNG) RESULTS IN CAPES 300-500 J/KG LOWER            
THAN EXPLICIT MODEL FCST. SINCE ETA DOES NOT GENERATE QPF DURING THE            
AFTN OVER FA EVEN WITH HI MODEL DVLPD INSTABILITY (GFS DOES GENERATE            
QPF)...BELIEVE MID LVL DRYING/STABILIZATION WL DOMINATE AND PREVENT             
SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER AS DAYSHIFT POINTED OUT...INCRSG INSOLATION THAT             
CAUSES TMAX TO APRCH HI END OF MOS FCST TEMPS PER DEEP MIXING THRU              
PBL ON ETA FCST SDNGS/FLAT PRES GRADIENT WL RESULT IN LK BREEZE                 
FORMATION. SINCE MOS FCSTS INDICATE CHC POPS ALMOST EVERYWHERE TUE              
AFTN...CONFIDENCE NOT HI ENUF TO REMOVE GOING SHRA/TSRA CHCS FM FCST            
OVER ERN ZNS WHERE POTENTIAL LK BREEZE CNVGC BTWN SUP/MI BNDRYS                 
MIGHT COUNTER NEGATIVE MID LVL PROCESSES THAT DON'T ARRIVE IN FULL              
FORCE IN THAT PART OF THE CWA UNTIL THE AFTN.                                   
SHRA OVER THE ERN CWA WL DSPT QUICKLY LATE TUE AFTN WITH WANING                 
INSOLATION UNDER MID LVL DRYING. TUE NGT SHUD BE ON THE TRANQUIL                
SIDE WITH DNVA/DEEP QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE/ARRIVAL OF WEAK HI PRES             
RDG. SINCE GFS RETAINS DVLPG WAD/DESTABILIZATION (SSI FALLING AOB               
ZERO) OVER NW LK SUP TOWARD 12Z WED IN ADVANCE OF POTENT SHRWTV FCST            
TO ARRIVE NEAR LK WINNIPEG THEN...WL RETAIN LO CHC LATE NGT SHRA/               
TSRA OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA/ISLE ROYALE AND ADJOINING LK SUP               
EVEN THOUGH GFS DOES NOT GENERATE ANY PCPN (UKMET DOES). OTRW...FA              
WL BE CLR TO PCLDY WITH AN INCRSG SW FLOW RESTRICTING THE DIURNAL               
DCRS IN TEMP AT LEAST OVER THE NW HALF OF FA. LOWER TMINS AOB MOS               
GUIDANCE OVER THE INTERIOR SCNTRL/E WHERE PRES GRADIENT DOES NOT                
TIGHTEN TOO MUCH BEFORE 12Z. GFS/UKMET/ETA IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON                 
DRIVING STRG SFC COLD FNT ACRS THE FA AND INTO NRN LK MI BY 00Z THU             
(CNDN MODEL A BIT SLOWER) AS POTENT SHRTWV NR LK WINNIPEG AT 12Z WED            
MOVES ACRS ONTARIO. DESPITE STRENGTH OF FNT AND POTENTIAL FOR                   
CONSIDERABLE HTG OF LLVLS WITH FROPA AT DIURNAL MAX/MSTR CNVGC/                 
FRONTOGENETIC ENHANCEMENT... ETA SHOWS LINX TO -5C/H85 TEMP RISING              
NR 16C (UKMET/GFS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH 14C)...WL NOT INCRS              
GOING CHC POPS DUE TO FCST LOCATION OF FA IN RIGHT EXIT OF                      
SUPPORTING H3 JET MAX. GFS/ETA MOS POPS SUPPORT THIS FCST.                      
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
DISCUSSION........JKL                                                           
PREV DISCUSSION...KC                                                            
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
315 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
THE RUC MODELS SHOWS CONTINUED LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION ACROSS               
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE            
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A WEAK THETA E RIDGE IS ALSO                  
INDICATED IN THE RUC MODEL JUST NORTH OF OUR MINNESOTA FORECAST                 
AREA...NEAR THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION NOW APPROACHING CASS COUNTY.              
WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF OUR                 
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING DUE TO THESE THETA E FEATURES. THE SOUTH             
DAKOTA SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH THIS                   
AFTERNOON AND THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE PUSH BEHIND COLD FRONT ACROSS               
MINNESOTA. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS EAST CENTRAL             
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE             
EXPECTED TO CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FOG EAST OF A LINE FROM             
STAPLES TO WILLMAR. EXPECT FAIR WEATHER TUESDAY WITH DIURNAL                    
CUMULUS. ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW             
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA WEDNESDAY.               
BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO SWING                
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA WHILE BEST              
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL BROAD BRUSH A CHANCE OF             
CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.                                      
LONGER TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY                                     
COOL NW FLOW PATTERN TO CONTINUE UNTIL PERHAPS END OF PERIOD WHEN               
GFS HINTS AT MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE               
WILL BE THE TIMING OF RAPID COOL FRONTS WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE             
AREA.  TREND ON THE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY IS FOR A FASTER            
SYSTEM...NOW PROGGED BY GFS TO ALREADY BE SOUTH OF AREA BY 12Z FRI.             
PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THRU THE PERIOD.           
&&                                                                              
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1105 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2004                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL MAKE A FEW MORE CHANGES TO POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER U/A              
ANALYSIS AND LOOK AT 12Z MODELS...WILL BUMP POPS UP A BIT MAINLY                
OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF OKLAHOMA...WITH LOW CHANCES ELSEWHERE.               
THE /THE WHITES OF ITS EYES/ ARE ALREADY SHOWING...AS CONVECTION                
DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA NEAR MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.                
THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND PERHAPS BECOME                
MORE WIDEPSREAD AS IT SPREADS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.                            
11                                                                              
&&                                                                              
950 AM                                                                          
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL UPDATE PACKAGE TO TWEAK POPS AND SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT                
TRENDS. DOUBLE-BARREL PATTERN WITH VORT MAX OVER EAST CENTRAL                   
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO KEEP POPS              
OUT OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS MAIN                     
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION             
CONTINUES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS                             
FEATURE...EVIDENT BY CONTINUING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WESTERN                 
NORTH TEXAS. WILL EXPAND AFTERNOON POPS BACK WEST TO INCLUDE CENTRAL            
OKLAHOMA AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH                 
TEXAS. MAIN COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEARS TO              
BE NEAR/EAST OF WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM AROUND ENID             
AND PONCA CITY...TO JUST EAST OF OKC...TO LAKE TEXOMA.                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  87  65  91  68 /  20  10   0  10                              
HOBART OK         87  66  92  68 /  10   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  67  93  69 /  30  10   0   0                              
GAGE OK           87  64  91  67 /  20   0   0  20                              
PONCA CITY OK     85  65  90  68 /  60  20   0  10                              
DURANT OK         87  66  92  69 /  40  10   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
11                                                                              
&&                                                                              
639 AM                                                                          
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET HAVE                 
FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT A BIT FARTHER NORTH THIS MORNING               
THAN EXPECTED. MOST ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND             
EXTREME NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WITH A SECONDARY LESS INTENSE BAND OF               
SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WITH ONLY WEAK COLD POOLS            
BEING GENERATED BY THE CONVECTION...AND THE RUC CONTINUING TO FOCUS             
THE STRONGEST ASCENT AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS...            
THERE APPEARS TO BE ONLY A SLIM CHANCE OF GENERATING CONVECTION MUCH            
FARTHER SOUTH.                                                                  
POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH HIGHEST POPS                    
CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BY AFTERNOON...AS THE SHORTWAVE             
TROUGH OVER KANSAS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...MOST IF NOT ALL CHANCES             
OF RAIN COULD BE OVER FOR THE DAY.                                              
FORECAST UPDATES ARE COMING OUT SHORTLY...                                      
JAMES                                                                           
-------------------------                                                       
208 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RANGE ACROSS             
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHERN OK BEFORE NOON TODAY SUPPORTED BY THE LOW                 
LEVEL JET IN THE VERY MOIST LOWER LAYERS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER FLOW              
IS EXPECTED TO PULL NORTH OF OK LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE                  
BUILDS MORE EAST INTO CO AND WEST TX BY TONIGHT. THIS IS THE REASON             
FOR NON POPS IN TUESDAY'S FORECAST. TEMPERATURES MORE LIKE                      
SEASONABLE NORMALS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT            
FRONT INFLUENCES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEK. THE NEXT                
CHANCE FOR RAIN IS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH FORECAST FRONTAL              
POSITION APPEARS PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE OF WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IT            
MAY TAKE STORMS ON THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MOVE IT                 
SOUTH OF KS. EVEN SO...IT APPEARS THAT IT SHOULD INFLUENCE MOST OF              
THE STATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  87  65  91  68 /  40   0   0  10                              
HOBART OK         87  66  92  68 /  30   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  67  93  69 /  20   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           87  64  91  67 /  20   0   0  20                              
PONCA CITY OK     85  65  90  68 /  40   0   0  10                              
DURANT OK         87  66  92  69 /  40   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
9                                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
950 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
WILL UPDATE PACKAGE TO TWEAK POPS AND SKY COVER BASED ON CURRENT                
TRENDS. DOUBLE-BARREL PATTERN WITH VORT MAX OVER EAST CENTRAL                   
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO KEEP POPS              
OUT OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS MAIN                     
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH. WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION             
CONTINUES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS                             
FEATURE...EVIDENT BY CONTINUING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WESTERN                 
NORTH TEXAS. WILL EXPAND AFTERNOON POPS BACK WEST TO INCLUDE CENTRAL            
OKLAHOMA AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH                 
TEXAS. MAIN COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEARS TO              
BE NEAR/EAST OF WEAK STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM AROUND ENID             
AND PONCA CITY...TO JUST EAST OF OKC...TO LAKE TEXOMA.                          
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  87  65  91  68 /  20  10   0  10                              
HOBART OK         87  66  92  68 /  10   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  67  93  69 /  30  10   0   0                              
GAGE OK           87  64  91  67 /  20   0   0  20                              
PONCA CITY OK     85  65  90  68 /  60  20   0  10                              
DURANT OK         87  66  92  69 /  40  10   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
11                                                                              
&&                                                                              
639 AM                                                                          
.UPDATE...                                                                      
LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET HAVE                 
FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT A BIT FARTHER NORTH THIS MORNING               
THAN EXPECTED. MOST ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND             
EXTREME NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WITH A SECONDARY LESS INTENSE BAND OF               
SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WITH ONLY WEAK COLD POOLS            
BEING GENERATED BY THE CONVECTION...AND THE RUC CONTINUING TO FOCUS             
THE STRONGEST ASCENT AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS...            
THERE APPEARS TO BE ONLY A SLIM CHANCE OF GENERATING CONVECTION MUCH            
FARTHER SOUTH.                                                                  
POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH HIGHEST POPS                    
CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BY AFTERNOON...AS THE SHORTWAVE             
TROUGH OVER KANSAS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...MOST IF NOT ALL CHANCES             
OF RAIN COULD BE OVER FOR THE DAY.                                              
FORECAST UPDATES ARE COMING OUT SHORTLY...                                      
JAMES                                                                           
-------------------------                                                       
208 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RANGE ACROSS             
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHERN OK BEFORE NOON TODAY SUPPORTED BY THE LOW                 
LEVEL JET IN THE VERY MOIST LOWER LAYERS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER FLOW              
IS EXPECTED TO PULL NORTH OF OK LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE                  
BUILDS MORE EAST INTO CO AND WEST TX BY TONIGHT. THIS IS THE REASON             
FOR NON POPS IN TUESDAY'S FORECAST. TEMPERATURES MORE LIKE                      
SEASONABLE NORMALS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT            
FRONT INFLUENCES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEK. THE NEXT                
CHANCE FOR RAIN IS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH FORECAST FRONTAL              
POSITION APPEARS PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE OF WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IT            
MAY TAKE STORMS ON THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MOVE IT                 
SOUTH OF KS. EVEN SO...IT APPEARS THAT IT SHOULD INFLUENCE MOST OF              
THE STATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  87  65  91  68 /  40   0   0  10                              
HOBART OK         87  66  92  68 /  30   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  67  93  69 /  20   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           87  64  91  67 /  20   0   0  20                              
PONCA CITY OK     85  65  90  68 /  40   0   0  10                              
DURANT OK         87  66  92  69 /  40   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
9                                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
639 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2004                                                      
LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET HAVE                 
FOCUSED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT A BIT FARTHER NORTH THIS MORNING               
THAN EXPECTED. MOST ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND             
EXTREME NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...WITH A SECONDARY LESS INTENSE BAND OF               
SHOWERS EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WITH ONLY WEAK COLD POOLS            
BEING GENERATED BY THE CONVECTION...AND THE RUC CONTINUING TO FOCUS             
THE STRONGEST ASCENT AND HIGHEST INSTABILITY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS...            
THERE APPEARS TO BE ONLY A SLIM CHANCE OF GENERATING CONVECTION MUCH            
FARTHER SOUTH.                                                                  
POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH HIGHEST POPS                    
CONFINED TO NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. BY AFTERNOON...AS THE SHORTWAVE             
TROUGH OVER KANSAS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...MOST IF NOT ALL CHANCES             
OF RAIN COULD BE OVER FOR THE DAY.                                              
FORECAST UPDATES ARE COMING OUT SHORTLY...                                      
JAMES                                                                           
-------------------------                                                       
208 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RANGE ACROSS             
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHERN OK BEFORE NOON TODAY SUPPORTED BY THE LOW                 
LEVEL JET IN THE VERY MOIST LOWER LAYERS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER FLOW              
IS EXPECTED TO PULL NORTH OF OK LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE                  
BUILDS MORE EAST INTO CO AND WEST TX BY TONIGHT. THIS IS THE REASON             
FOR NON POPS IN TUESDAY'S FORECAST. TEMPERATURES MORE LIKE                      
SEASONABLE NORMALS WILL RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE NEXT            
FRONT INFLUENCES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEK. THE NEXT                
CHANCE FOR RAIN IS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH FORECAST FRONTAL              
POSITION APPEARS PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE OF WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IT            
MAY TAKE STORMS ON THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MOVE IT                 
SOUTH OF KS. EVEN SO...IT APPEARS THAT IT SHOULD INFLUENCE MOST OF              
THE STATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.                                               
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  87  65  91  68 /  40   0   0  10                              
HOBART OK         87  66  92  68 /  30   0   0   0                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  89  67  93  69 /  20   0   0   0                              
GAGE OK           87  64  91  67 /  20   0   0  20                              
PONCA CITY OK     85  65  90  68 /  40   0   0  10                              
DURANT OK         87  66  92  69 /  40   0   0   0                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
9                                                                               
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
215 AM MDT TUE AUG 17 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION                 
TONIGHT...FRONTAL TIMING/POSITION ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND              
ITS AFFECT ON TEMPERATURE/PRECIPITATION FORECASTS...AND HIGH                    
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. SATELLITE CONTINUING TO SHOW AN ACTIVE AND            
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. IN               
FACT...FEATURES LOOK LIKE THEY ARE RETROGRESSING SOME OVER THE                  
PACIFIC. UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE             
EAST.                                                                           
AT MID LEVELS...MODELS HAVING THEIR TROUBLES WITH GREAT BASIN SYSTEM            
AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER US. INITIALLY THE RUC WAS DOING THE                 
BEST. MODELS WERE STILL TOO FAR EAST AND NORTH WITH THE LOWER                   
HEIGHTS. HOWEVER...BY 06Z THE NGM WAS THE BEST WITH THE ETA JUST                
BEHIND IT ON THE GREAT BASIN SYSTEM. GFS NOT DOING WELL...NOT STRONG            
ENOUGH ACCORDING TO SATELLITE...ON THIS SYSTEM AND LEAVES DOUBT TO              
HANDLING OF THE ENERGY THAT COMES IN FROM THE WEST. ETA HAS RIDGING             
TOO STRONG OVER US WITH GFS NOT STRONG ENOUGH. IF GFS WAS A LITTLE              
FURTHER EAST IT WOULD BE THE BEST HERE. GFS WAS ALSO TOO WET.                   
AT LOW LEVELS...TROUBLES CONTINUE AT THIS LEVEL. GFS REMAINS TOO                
WET. ETA IS DOING BETTER ON FRONTAL POSITION AND WINDS. HOWEVER...              
GFS LOOKS TO BE DOING SLIGHTLY BETTER ON TEMPS. APPEARS THE BEST WAY            
TO HANDLE THIS FORECAST IS TO USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS BASED ON                
BIASES...WEAKNESS/STRENGTH IN INITIALIZATION...AND LATEST TRENDS.               
WILL ALSO GET AS CLOSE AS POSSIBLE WITH NEIGHBORS ON THIS TRICKY                
FORECAST.                                                                       
FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...LOOK TO HAVE SHORTWAVE RIDGING FOR MOST OF THIS             
TIME PERIOD WITH THE MAIN BOUNDARY REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE                
FORECAST AREA. FOR TONIGHT A COUPLE OF THINGS TO CONSIDER FOR                   
PRECIPITATION. ALONG WITH THE MAIN BOUNDARY...MOST OF DYNAMICS AND              
POSSIBLE MCS COULD MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA. THIS COULD CLIP THE NORTHERN           
COUNTIES AND POSSIBLY SHOVE THE FRONT THROUGH FASTER. WILL HAVE DAY             
DRY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTH. WILL HAVE A DECENT AMOUNT OF             
SUN BUT NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE WIND FIELD. WILL GO CLOSE TO                     
GUIDANCE AND CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE MAXES.                                    
FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ETA IS FASTER AND STRONGER WITH                 
FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN THE GFS. UKMET WHICH HAS DONE WELL WITH                    
FRONTAL TIMING IS THIS SCENARIO BEFORE IS VERY CLOSE TO THE ETA.                
WILL PROBABLY TEND TO LOWER MAXES A LITTLE...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN              
AND NORTHERN SECTIONS BASED ON FROPA/NORTH WINDS OVER MOST OF THE               
AREA BY 18Z. A SHORTWAVE COMES IN FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY WITH            
THE FRONT CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL TEND TO GO HIEST IN              
THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NIGHT PERIOD...BUT THINK MAIN ACTION             
MAY BE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS DEFINITELY BLOWING UP QPF           
AND DYNAMICS TOO MUCH.                                                          
FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...UPSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE                 
DAYTIME HOURS WHICH COULD MAKE FOR A CLOUDY AND COOL DAY. WILL                  
TONE DOWN THE TEMPERATURES TO NEAR GUIDANCE. APPEAR TO HAVE LINGERING           
DYNAMICS...NOT MUCH...THROUGH THE DAY. WITH LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN              
DURING THE DAY BUT PLAN ON TAKING THEM OUT DURING THE NIGHT OR                  
LEAVING THEM VERY LOW.                                                          
NO CHANGES PLANNED IN THE 4 TO 7 PERIOD AT THIS TIME.                           
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
BULLER                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
500 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH SLOWLY DROPPING SE INTO UPR LAKES REGION.             
ALTHOUGH WIND SHIFT PRESENT WITH BOUNDARY...MORE COOLER/DRIER                   
AIRMASS REMAINS N OF CNTRL MANITOBA. RAOBS AND WV LOOP SHOWS TROUGH             
EXISTS FM H5-H3 FM HUDSON BAY INTO FAR NORTHEAST MN. NARROW BAND OF             
SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SCT LIGHTNING FOCUSED LATE YDY AFTN/EVENING                
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AND TAIL OF UPR LEVEL TROUGH. OTHER SHORTWAVE              
OF NOTE IS SPINNING SE ACROSS SD ATTM AND SHOULD REMAIN TOO FAR S TO            
AFFECT SENSIBLE WX OVR UPR MI.                                                  
TODAY...SFC TROUGH AND LINGERING MOISTURE THROUGH H85 PRESENT OVR               
UPR MI TODAY WITH MOISTURE ABOVE H85 EVADING DURING AFTN PER                    
ETA/GFS/RUC. DRYING TREND IN MID LEVELS SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING            
DRY H8-H5 LAYER NOTED ON UPSTREAM 00Z CYQD/KBIS SOUNDINGS. SHORTWAVE            
THAT HELPED SET OFF SHOWERS/TS OVR NORTHEAST MN/NW ONTARIO YDY CLIPS            
N HALF OF CWA THIS MORNING AND COULD HELP SUSTAIN CURRENT SHOWERS A             
BIT LONGER THAN RUC DEEP MOISTURE/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS.                
THIS INITIAL PCPN SHOULD END BY MIDDAY AT LATEST WITH ATTN TURNING              
TO ADDITONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTN. UPSTREAM TRENDS AND ETA 12KM AND             
ETA/GFS MOS WINDS SUGGEST THAT BY EARLY AFTN APPROX W HALF OF CWA               
TRANSITIONS TO DRIER/ONSHORE W FLOW...WHILE WEAKER SW FLOW PERSISTS             
OVR E HALF OF CWA. CLOUDS SHOULD BE BREAKING BY LATE MORNING E AND              
THIS COULD HELP PRODUCE SOME LK BREEZES. THIS WOULD BE THE TRIGGER TO           
ANY CONVECTION. A COUPLE OF QUESTIONABLE DEPICTIONS OF SHORTWAVES               
ARRIVING FM W (WITH VERY DRY MID LEVELS) MAY ADD SOME ADDITONAL LIFT            
BUT WILL NOT COUNT ON THAT. HAVE TRIMMED POPS BACK IN CNTRL ZONES TO            
JUST FAR E PART OF MQT COUNTY INTO N 1/3 OF MNM WITH CHANCE POPS OVR            
E ZONES WHERE DEEPER DRY AIR IS NOT LARGE FACTOR AND WHERE LOW LEVEL            
CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.                                                       
TONIGHT INTO WED AM...PRIMARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO               
ACCELERATE AS SFC LOW TAKES SHAPE OVR FAR NW ONTARIO. SHORTWAVE                 
BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO FAR N MN BY LATE TONIGHT WITH H3 JET NOSING                
INTO NW MN. H85 JET OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IS SIG WITH 35-45KT                 
PROGGED PER ETA/GFS. BTWN INCREASING LLJ AND PROXIMITY OF H85                   
BAROCLINIC ZONE...KEPT THE 30 POP IN FOR KEWEENAW LATE TONIGHT.                 
COULD END UP BEING ONLY A FEW LGT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AS STILL SOME               
UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY H85-H5 LAYER MOISTENS UP FM W TO E. COLD                
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID CLOUDS/SMALL CHANCE POPS SPREAD ACROSS W               
1/3 OF CWA IN MORNING. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE BUILDING BY THIS POINT             
OVR C/E ZONES. UNSURE HOW MUCH MID CLOUD WILL MAKE IT INTO E HALF OF            
ZONES BY MIDDAY. EVEN WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN MORNING TEMPS SHOULD             
RISE QUICKLY AFTER MIN TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S AT SOME SPOTS. MIXING TO            
H9 OR H85 PRODUCES MAX T ON WED OUT AHEAD OF FRONT IN UPR 70S TO LWR            
80S. WARMEST TEMPS IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS WITH SW WIND. CURRENT GRIDS             
WELL IN HAND REGARDING THIS SCENARIO. COVERGENCE WITH FRONT AND                 
INCREASING PVA/DEEP MOISTURE/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FM NW SHOULD ALLOW            
A BAND OF SHRA TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT AND SPREAD INTO E COUNTIES BY             
LATE DAY. TS POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE/INSTABILITY              
IS PRESENT OUT AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCE OF               
HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL BE TO S OF CWA (WHERE SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK             
IS ALLIGNED) BUT IF SIG DESTABILIZATION OCCURS OVR OUR AREA...SVR WX            
WOULD BE A CONCERN WITH LI/S BLO ZERO AND 0-6KM SHEAR RISING ABOVE              
40KT.                                                                           
WED PM INTO FRI...COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH EARLY WED EVENING TAKING             
ANY LINGERING PCPN WITH IT. IN ITS WAKE A QUICK SHOT OF VERY CHILLY             
AIR WILL BE AROUND TO START THU OFF. H85 TEMPS OFF GFS/ECMWF FLIRT              
WITH ZERO LINE AROUND 12Z. SW ZONES HAVE A CHANCE FOR WINDS TO                  
LIGHTEN UP AFT MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT SO TRIMMED TEMPS A BIT THERE INTO             
THE UPR 30S...BUT WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT WIND NO FROST MENTIONED                 
RIGHT NOW. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY HIGH SFC-H85 LAPSE RATES OVR LK               
SUPERIOR SHOULD KEEP WINDS OVR REST OF CWA MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP                 
TEMPS FM FALLING MUCH BLO 45-50F. COLD AIR ALREADY RETREATING BY                
LATE THU WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AOA 5C BY LATE AFTN AT KIWD.                     
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP AT THAT TIME...WITH UKMET QUITE FASTER             
WITH NEXT FROPA THAN OTHER MODELS...AND COLDER TOO (AT 00Z FRI AT               
KINL H85 TEMP OF +1C COMPARED WITH ECMWF/GFS TEMPS AROUND +6C). IF              
UKMET SCENARIO VERIFIED WOULD END UP WITH DRY FRI AS HIGH PRES                  
BUILDS IN BY 12Z FRI. FOR NOW...TRIMMED TEMPS A BIT FRI BUT KEPT                
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA IN FCST. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND               
FRI.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLA                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND                              
245 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004                                                      
FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES.                      
MODELS SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES THROUGH PERIOD MAINLY WITH                      
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ETA QUICKER AND COLDER WITH FEATURE. GFS HAS            
BEEN DOING A BETTER JOB WITH TIMING SO WILL STAY CONSISTENT WITH                
CURRENT FORECAST WITH A SLOWER/WARMER SOLUTION.                                 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE THROUGH             
CENTRAL ND. FEATURE MOVING ABOUT 40KT AND SHOULD EXIT FA EARLY AM.              
FARTHER UPSTREAM ANOTHER WAVE SWINGS THROUGH DURING DAY. CANADIAN               
RADARS INDICATING RETURNS IN CENTRAL SASK MOVING SOUTHEAST. WITH RUC            
PAINTING SOME LIGHT QPF OVER FAR NORTH WILL INTRODUCE CHC SHRA THIS             
AREA. CONCERNING TEMPS WITH ABOVE WAVES CLOUDS WILL BE IN AND OUT               
DURING DAY. WARM ADVECTION TODAY BUT MAINLY DURING SECOND HALF OF               
DAY. WITH THIS WILL LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.                            
SLOWER GFS BRINGS FROPA TO NORTHERN FA BETWEEN 00-06Z. STILL ENOUGH             
INSTABILITY FOR T POTENTIAL AND GFS HIGHER WITH PRECIPITABLE H20                
VALUES SO WILL KEEP GOING. WILL DELAY PCPN POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTH               
UNTIL LATE EVENING AND WITH TIMING OF BOUNDARY LIKELY JUST SHRA VS              
T. ALSO WITH SLOWER GFS FROPA AND CLOUDS WILL NOT BE AS COLD                    
OVERNIGHT AS ETA GUIDANCE DEPICTS.                                              
WINDY AND MUCH COLDER WEDNESDAY FOLLOWING FROPA. ADIABATIC LAYER TO             
800MB WITH GOOD UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND 20 TO 30KTS TO MIX DOWN.                
AFTER COORDINATION WITH BIS WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT POPS FOR SHRA WITH            
COLD POOL.                                                                      
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS WED NIGHT-THURSDAY AS HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH AND               
EAST OF FA. SECONDARY BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH                
RENEWED SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WITH DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS ON              
DEGREE OF UPPER SUPPORT WILL KEEP FROPA DRY FOR NOW.                            
NO CHANGES PLANNED AFT DAY 5 HOWEVER GFS RIDING SURFACE LOW ALONG               
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IF CONSISTENT MAY NEED TO ADD RAIN MENTION FOR              
SECOND HALF OF WEEKEND.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
ND...NONE.                                                                      
MN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
VOELKER                                                                         
</PRE></TT></td>   nd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
248 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z OUN AND LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SOURCE OF ELEVATED                  
INSTABILITY BEGINNING AROUND 850 MB WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN                   
PROGRESS AND SATELLITE CONFIRMING SCATTERED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT                   
AT VARIOUS HEIGHTS AND LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WITH             
THE WEAKEST CIN AND STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET            
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA...MOST IF NOT ALL DEVELOPMENT                
SHOULD REMAIN EAST. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS            
OR SO TO SEE IF CURRENT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EVOLVES FURTHER WHICH MAY             
NECESSITATE LOW POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND/OR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA              
THROUGH THE MORNING.                                                            
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN UPPER               
LOW OVER NEVADA WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES NEARING THE              
AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW FORMS OVER THE TEXAS            
PANHANDLE. WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER KANSAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH             
OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND THE LATTER UPPER LOW LIKELY               
TOO WEAK TO BE A MAJOR PLAYER..IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY                   
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. EVEN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCES MAY NOT             
BE AS HIGH AS EARLIER THOUGHT. ETA SHOWS MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY                
FLOW OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO WEST TEXAS UPPER LOW...WHICH WOULD            
HELP STEER CONVECTION THAT FORMS NEAR THE FRONT AWAY FROM THE AREA.             
HAVE KEPT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POPS INTACT FOR WEDNESDAY                       
NIGHT...BUT HAVE LOWERED THEM IN MOST PLACES.                                   
THURSDAY/FRIDAY ARE THE MOST UNCERTAIN WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE             
MODELS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO MODIFY THE LONGER WAVE               
PATTERN AND EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. REDUCED POPS ONLY SLIGHTLY               
THURSDAY FOR THE SAME REASONS AS ABOVE AND RAISED HIGHS IN THE                  
NORTH. OTHERWISE...VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THESE DAYS. THE             
FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME DURING THESE             
PERIODS...SUPPORTING CHANCE POPS/COOLER TEMPS/AND MORE CLOUD COVER.             
FRONT SHOULD EITHER CLEAR THE AREA OR WEAKEN OVER THE AREA BY                   
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  68  92  69 /   0   0   0  20                              
HOBART OK         92  68  94  70 /   0   0   0  20                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  69  94  72 /   0   0   0  20                              
GAGE OK           92  66  95  66 /   0   0   0  20                              
PONCA CITY OK     91  68  94  69 /   0   0   0  20                              
DURANT OK         90  69  92  71 /   0   0   0  10                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JAMES                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY                     
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD                                          
320 AM MDT TUE AUG 17 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH OVER SD WITH A                    
DEVELOPING LOW OVER CENT WY. SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL WARMING CLOUD              
TOPS OVER NW SD. KUDX RADAR INDC SCT SHRA OVER NW SD...REFLECTIVITY             
DECREASING WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS...BUT AREAL COVERAGE REMAINS                 
CONSISTENT.                                                                     
00Z MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAIN                    
FEATURES OVER NRN PLAINS. THIS MORNING WILL BE BIGGEST FORECAST                 
CHALLENGE AS LATEST RUC SUGGESTS WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WHICH HAS BEEN            
SUPPORTING PRECIP OVER SE MT/NW SD WILL CONTINUE AND SHIFT INTO SW -            
S CENT SD THROUGH MORNING HOURS. LATEST IR IMAGES WITH WARMING TOPS             
SUGGESTS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS WEAKENING AND PRECIP MAY TAPPER OFF             
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WILL WATCH CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR            
TWO TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP. WILL ANTICIPATE MENTIONING SCT -SHRA             
NW SD/FAR NE WY AT ZONE ISSUANCE...WITH A EARLY MORNING UPDATE                  
EXPECTED. BEYOND IMMEDIATE CONCERN...UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN OVER               
THE WRN U.S. AS DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AREA CONTINUES TO               
DEEPEN. A SERIES OF RATHER POTENT S/WVS ROTATE AROUND THIS                      
LOW...WITH BEST ENERGY E OF CWFA. WITH CWFA ON THE EDGE OF ENERGY               
AND MOISTURE GRADIENTS...PRECIP FORECAST THROUGH DAY 3 ARE A                    
CHALLENGE. TODAY WILL ANTICIPATE SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN WY AND               
TRACKING ACROSS NEB/SD BORDER...CARRYING AN INVERTED TROF ACROSS WRN            
SD. WILL SEE GOOD LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION INTO SRN SD OUT OF NEB            
PANHANDLE AFTER 18Z TODAY. CAPE VALUES ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG (NR 900             
J/KG RIGHT ON STATE LINE), AND LAPSE RATES GETTING STEEPER THROUGH              
THE DAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...AND MAY ONLY SEE             
VIRGA. HAVE CARRIED 20 POPS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR ISOLATED                
NATURE OF EXPECTED CONVECTION.                                                  
TONIGHT WILL SEE CAA BEHIND INVERTED TROF PASSAGE...HOWEVER BEST                
PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL BE IN ERN DAKOTAS. NW FLOW PERSISTS WED WITH A            
VERY POTENT VORT MAX ROTATING DOWN OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS MN AND              
IA. HOW MUCH ENERGY WILL EXTEND THIS FAR W REMAINS A GOOD QUESTION              
AND HAVE AGAIN JUST GONE WITH SLT CHC POPS IN SRN ZONES WED                     
AFTERNOON/EVE AS BETTER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE THERE. A REINFORCING              
SHOT OF CAA IS ON TAP BEHIND THIS WAVE WED NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE MOVES            
THROUGH ABOUT THE SAME AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVE AND BRINGS ANOTHER             
SHOT OF SLT CHC POPS AND CAA. HAVE PAINTED 20 POPS ACROSS MUCH OF               
CWFA FRI AS CERTAINTY OF TIMING/TRACK OF BEST FORCING IS MORE                   
QUESTIONABLE.                                                                   
BEYOND FRIDAY UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVES NE AND THREATS OF S/WVS                    
ROTATING AROUND IT DIMINISH OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THE WEEKEND WILL               
SEE TEMPS SLOWLY REBOUND FROM SHOTS OF COLD AIR...AND SHOULD REMAIN             
DRY.                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.UNR...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
.SD...NONE.                                                                     
.WY...NONE.                                                                     
$$                                                                              
99                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sd                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI                                           
1135 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON ARE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES.                        
WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WNW MID/UPR LVL FLOW TOWARD               
THE WRN LAKES BEHIND MEAN TROF AXIS FROM N CNTRL CANADA TO THE OH               
VALLEY. ONE WEAK SHRTWV AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC TROF INTO WRN WI                
HELPED TO SUPPORT EXTENSIVE AREA OF LOW/MID CLOUDS FROM WI INTO W               
UPR MI. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WERE ADVANCING ACRS S CNTRL LK             
SUPERIOR. ANOTHER SHRTWV JUST UPSTREAM EXTENDED FROM WRN ONTARIO                
INTO NW MN. VIS LOOP SHOWED ONLY LIMITED CLEARING FROM S INTO E                 
CNTRL UPR MI.                                                                   
EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN OVER THE SE HLF OF THE CWA WHERE PERIOD             
OF SUNSHINE WILL BOOST INSTABILITY. MODIFIED LAPS/RUC FCST SOUNDINGS            
WITH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 WOULD GIVE CAPE             
VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. WEAK QVECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE MN            
SHRTWV ALONG WITH LOW LVL FOCUS NEAR LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES MAY BE              
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLD SHRA AND SOME TSRA EVEN THOUGH             
THE ETA SUGGESTS WARM DRY 750-600 MB LYR...SIMILAR TO 12 KINL/KMPX              
SNDGS...WOULD BE LESS FAVORABLE. OTHERWISE...MORE PERSISTENT CLOUDS             
W OF MQT-IMT ALONG WITH GREATER MID LVL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING SHOULD                
REDUCE CONVECTION THREAT. EVEN WITH SOME CLEARING OVER THE W...LESS             
FAVORABLE SNDG PRFL AND MORE WRLY FLOW INTO W UPR MI WITH                       
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LK SUPERIOR SPREADING WELL INLAND ALSO                 
SHOULD MINIMIZE SHRA/TSRA THREAT.                                               
OTHERWISE...UPDATE WILL ALSO BOOST CLOUD COVER WORDING WITH SLIGHTLY            
LOWER TEMPS OVER THE WEST HALF.                                                 
JLB                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...FOR LATER PERIODS.                                           
TONIGHT INTO WED AM...PRIMARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO               
ACCELERATE AS SFC LOW TAKES SHAPE OVR FAR NW ONTARIO. SHORTWAVE                 
BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO FAR N MN BY LATE TONIGHT WITH H3 JET NOSING                
INTO NW MN. H85 JET OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IS SIG WITH 35-45KT                 
PROGGED PER ETA/GFS. BTWN INCREASING LLJ AND PROXIMITY OF H85                   
BAROCLINIC ZONE...KEPT THE 30 POP IN FOR KEWEENAW LATE TONIGHT.                 
COULD END UP BEING ONLY A FEW LGT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AS STILL SOME               
UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY H85-H5 LAYER MOISTENS UP FM W TO E. COLD                
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID CLOUDS/SMALL CHANCE POPS SPREAD ACROSS W               
1/3 OF CWA IN MORNING. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE BUILDING BY THIS POINT             
OVR C/E ZONES. UNSURE HOW MUCH MID CLOUD WILL MAKE IT INTO E HALF OF            
ZONES BY MIDDAY. EVEN WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE IN MORNING TEMPS SHOULD             
RISE QUICKLY AFTER MIN TEMPS IN THE UPR 50S AT SOME SPOTS. MIXING TO            
H9 OR H85 PRODUCES MAX T ON WED OUT AHEAD OF FRONT IN UPR 70S TO LWR            
80S. WARMEST TEMPS IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS WITH SW WIND. CURRENT GRIDS             
WELL IN HAND REGARDING THIS SCENARIO. COVERGENCE WITH FRONT AND                 
INCREASING PVA/DEEP MOISTURE/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FM NW SHOULD ALLOW            
A BAND OF SHRA TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT AND SPREAD INTO E COUNTIES BY             
LATE DAY. TS POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SUNSHINE/INSTABILITY              
IS PRESENT OUT AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. IT APPEARS THE BETTER CHANCE OF               
HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL BE TO S OF CWA (WHERE SPC DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK             
IS ALLIGNED) BUT IF SIG DESTABILIZATION OCCURS OVR OUR AREA...SVR WX            
WOULD BE A CONCERN WITH LI/S BLO ZERO AND 0-6KM SHEAR RISING ABOVE              
40KT.                                                                           
WED PM INTO FRI...COLD FRONT BLOWS THROUGH EARLY WED EVENING TAKING             
ANY LINGERING PCPN WITH IT. IN ITS WAKE A QUICK SHOT OF VERY CHILLY             
AIR WILL BE AROUND TO START THU OFF. H85 TEMPS OFF GFS/ECMWF FLIRT              
WITH ZERO LINE AROUND 12Z. SW ZONES HAVE A CHANCE FOR WINDS TO                  
LIGHTEN UP AFT MIDNIGHT WED NIGHT SO TRIMMED TEMPS A BIT THERE INTO             
THE UPR 30S...BUT WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT WIND NO FROST MENTIONED                 
RIGHT NOW. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY HIGH SFC-H85 LAPSE RATES OVR LK               
SUPERIOR SHOULD KEEP WINDS OVR REST OF CWA MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP                 
TEMPS FM FALLING MUCH BLO 45-50F. COLD AIR ALREADY RETREATING BY                
LATE THU WITH H85 TEMPS RISING AOA 5C BY LATE AFTN AT KIWD.                     
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP AT THAT TIME...WITH UKMET QUITE FASTER             
WITH NEXT FROPA THAN OTHER MODELS...AND COLDER TOO (AT 00Z FRI AT               
KINL H85 TEMP OF +1C COMPARED WITH ECMWF/GFS TEMPS AROUND +6C). IF              
UKMET SCENARIO VERIFIED WOULD END UP WITH DRY FRI AS HIGH PRES                  
BUILDS IN BY 12Z FRI. FOR NOW...TRIMMED TEMPS A BIT FRI BUT KEPT                
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHRA IN FCST. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE BEYOND               
FRI.                                                                            
JLA                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.                                        
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mi                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
924 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
MAKING SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TODAY AND EVENING CHANCES OF                       
THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON WHERE FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST CORNER             
OF MISSOURI...AND ITS SLOWER PROGRESSION THROUGH AREA THIS MORNING.             
BASED ON RUC DEPICTION OF POSITION BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MAY SEE                 
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS AREAS FROM ST JOSEPH TO                         
KIRKSVILLE...THEN HEADING SOUTHEAST RATHER RAPIDLY AS FRONT FINALLY             
SURGES SOUTH THIS EVENING.                                                      
PC                                                                              
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
350 AM...                                                                       
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE FORECASTING THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE            
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEK. REGION REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF                        
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW. THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SHOULD                
SEND THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI TODAY. THE                 
FRONT IS VERY WEAK WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE ALONG IT...AND MAY NOT               
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW HAVE IT MAKING IT TO AROUND HIGHWAY              
36 BEFORE BECOMING TOO WEAK TO FIND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE                   
EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI SOUNDINGS INDICATED A MID LEVEL             
CAP DEVELOPING...EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ON              
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CAP. SO WITH NO CAP AND A WEAK BOUNDARY                 
MOVING THROUGH...HAVE MAINTAINED 30 POPS ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES                
ONLY. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LI/S FROM -3 TO -6 AND CAPE               
GREATER THAN 2500 J/KG PROGGED. IF STORMS GET GOING...MAY HAVE TO               
BUMP POPS BACK UP TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONT.                                  
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE               
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED                  
TO DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. A FEW OF THESE MAY PUSH INTO              
MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND                  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THICKNESS FIELDS INDICATE STORMS WILL SLOW DOWN              
DRAMATICALLY ONCE REACHING NORTHERN MISSOURI.                                   
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY               
EVENING. AIRMASS SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO            
THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. HAVE 40 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST               
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH                
MORE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.                                               
OTHERWISE HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY                
WITH FEWER CLOUDS EXPECTED AND GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE.              
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.                                                          
NRR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFOEAX                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED                                              
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY                                             
937 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004                                                      
.UPDATE...                                                                      
BEAUTIFUL MID-AUGUST WX IN FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THIS                      
MORNING...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGED FIRMLY ACROSS THE                  
APPALACHIANS. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD                           
TODAY...ALLOWING A SW FLOW OF SOMEWHAT WARMER/MORE HUMID AIR TO                 
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.                                    
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS OR SO IS THE AREA OF             
SHOWERS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.               
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...WHEN CONSIDERED ALONE...MAKE ME AT LEAST              
MILDLY CONCERNED THAT SOMETHING COULD SNEAK INTO THE FAR WESTERN                
COUNTIES VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE              
ALSO A NUMBER OF OTHER FACTORS THAT SUGGEST OTHERWISE. FIRST...THE              
AREA OF -SHRA APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DECENT AREA OF 850 MB             
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...AN 850 MB SPEED MAXIMA...AND A DECENT MID                
LEVEL SHORTWAVE...BUT THE LATEST ETA/GFS/RUC ALL UNANIMOUSLY KEEP               
THESE FEATURES NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...NOT                  
REALLY WORKING ANY FORCING INTO THE AREA UNTIL THIS EVENING/                    
OVERNIGHT (DEPENDING ON YOUR CHOICE OF MODEL). SECOND...WHILE                   
THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...THE AIRMASS                
OVER WESTERN NY IS FAIRLY DRY OVERALL PER THE 12Z KBUF                          
SOUNDING...WHICH WOULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR ANY PRECIP TRYING            
TO PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA. FINALLY...WITH A SW FLOW SETTING UP OFF             
OF LAKE ERIE THIS AFTERNOON...LAKE SHADOWING IS ALSO LIKELY TO BE AN            
INHIBITING FACTOR...AT LEAST FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER.                          
TAKING ALL OF THE ABOVE INTO CONSIDERATION...FEEL THAT PCPN CHANCES             
ARE LOW ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO KEEP THE DRY FORECAST FOR THIS                   
AFTERNOON FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. IF ANYTHING WOULD MANAGE TO                      
SNEAK IN...IT WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN                  
SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES...AS THIS AREA WOULD BE AWAY FROM THE                    
INHIBITING EFFECTS OF THE LAKE ERIE BREEZE. THERE SHOULD BE A                   
SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT OF -SHRA ACROSS THE FAR WEST THIS EVENING AS            
THE SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES...AND WHILE I STILL FEEL             
THAT THE BULK OF ANY PCPN WOULD BE OVERNIGHT...IN MY MIND THERE IS              
ENOUGH OF A THREAT FOR THIS EVENING TO REMOVE ANY TIMING FOR AREAS              
WEST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY FOR THE SECOND PERIOD.                               
TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING HAD 850 T'S AROUND +10 THIS             
MORNING...AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ABOUT +12 OR SO IN THE              
SW FLOW/WARM ADVECTION PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON. ASSUMING DECENT                  
MIXING...WHICH SHOULD HAPPEN...THIS WOULD YIELD MAX T'S IN THE UPPER            
70S OR SO...A LITTLE WARMER ACROSS THE NORMALLY WARM SPOTS OF THE               
GENESEE VALLEY. THIS IS ACCOUNTED FOR RATHER WELL IN THE CURRENT                
FORECAST...SO LITTLE CHANGES WILL BE MADE IN THAT DEPARTMENT.                   
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...                                       
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY ACROSS               
THE FORECAST. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL SET UP BY AFTERNOON...BUT             
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING             
WITH MODEST AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. FIRST HALF OF THE DAY              
SHOULD SEE GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE BEFORE CLOUDS GRADUALLY THICKEN                
WITH APPROACH OF UPPER SHORT WAVE LATE IN THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS              
SUGGESTING AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND             
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOS GUIDANCE AS WELL.                                      
UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ALL MODELS FOR THE                
MOST PART HOLD ANY QPF OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE AS            
06Z-12Z TIME PERIOD FEATURES AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET AND MODEST             
AMOUNT OF 850-500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE.                                      
ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING NICELY WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS                
RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S. SURFACE BASED CAPES BY AFTERNOON              
CLIMBING TO NEAR 1500 J/KG. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A CONVECTIVE                   
TRIGGER...OTHER THAN LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONES. SCATTERED                   
PROBABILITIES LOOK REASONABLE.                                                  
ETA/GFS SIMILAR IN BRINGING SHARP COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY 12Z               
THURSDAY. GOOD THETA-E CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION ALONG WITH LOW                 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALL POINT TO LIKELY PROBABILITIES. POTENTIAL FOR              
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY...BUT MID               
LEVEL WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN AND THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER LEVEL                 
DIVERGENCE DEVELOPING AS UPPER JET MAX CUTS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES              
AND SOUTHERN ONTARIO.                                                           
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...                                   
MODELS SUGGESTING POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP SOUTHWARD CAUSING UPPER                
FLOW TO BACK AND SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF COLD FRONT. FRONT SHOULD            
DROP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BUT NOT GETTING MUCH                 
FURTHER THAN THE STATE LINE. GFS IS SUGGESTING A SURFACE WAVE WILL              
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND RIDE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE                 
FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY RESULTING IN A RATHER WET PERIOD. AT THIS             
POINT...CONFIDENCE ON THIS HAPPENING IS LOW SO WILL MAINTAIN                    
CONTINUITY AND KEEP PRECIPITATION THREAT IN CHANCE CATEGORY. FRONT              
SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR HIGH             
PRESSURE TO BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT                   
THROUGH MONDAY TIME PERIOD...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.                    
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL OF WRN AND CNTRL NY THIS                     
AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME HIGH CIRRUS MIXING WITH SOME AC AFTER 18Z.             
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LEAK INTO FAR WESTERN SITES AFTER 00Z WITH LOCAL              
MVFR CONDITIONS.                                                                
WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE QUITE LIGHT...WITH SPEEDS LESS             
THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH 10K INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PICK UP A            
LITTLE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.                                                  
&&                                                                              
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NY...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...JJR                                                                    
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...TMA                                                      
AVIATION...RSH/SFM                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   ny                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC                               
1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004                                                     
.SHORT TERM (TODAY)                                                             
FCST GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE. 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS INDICATED PLENTIFUL            
LOW LEVEL MOIST/INSTAB WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND VERY DRY AIR             
ABOVE 700 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CU WAS FORMING WITH              
HEATING AND PC WILL SUFFICE FOR CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. MSAS SFC            
ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN NC. THE RUC40 FCSTS              
THE HIGH TO DRIFT OFF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON TURNING THE LOW            
LEVEL FLOW TO SE. OTHER THAN SEA BREEZE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING                    
MECHANISMS...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC               
SCALE FORCING FOR DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE DEGREE              
OF DRY MID LVL AIR EVIDENT IN THE UA ANALYSIS...THERE SHOULD BE                 
STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AT LEAST INITIALLY AND I AM EXPECTING            
ONLY ISOLD DIURNAL CONVECTION AT WORST. ONE CONCERN IS AN AREA OF               
DEEP/PERSISTENT CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN MOVG FROM GA INTO SC THIS             
MORNING. THE 00Z/06Z GFS RUN DID NOT INITIALIZE THIS ACTIVITY. THE              
ETA MODEL SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS PCPN AREA. THE                 
ETA-12 BROUGHT THE CONVECTION ACROSS SC AND MAINLY SOUTH OF MY                  
REGION OF ESTRN NC THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE I WILL KEEP THE MENTION            
OF PCPN OUT OF THE FORECAST WHILE CONTINUING TO TRACK THE AREA OF               
TSTMS TO OUR SOUTH. FCST HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S LOOK GOOD AND ONLY             
MINOR WORDING CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED TO THE ZONES THIS MORNING.                 
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT                 
EXPECTED. ONLY AN ISOLD SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS             
THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.                                     
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...FCST ON TRACK. WILL NEED TO TWEAK WIND DIR TO INDICATE                
EXPECTED SE FLOW. WE HAVE DECIDED TO INCREASE RIP CURRENT THREAT TO             
MODERATE FOR THE OUTER BANKS NORTH OF HSE DUE TO 11-12 SECOND PERIOD            
SWELL ...TAIL END OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE CYCLE...AND ONSHORE                 
FLOW.                                                                           
&&                                                                              
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
ELARDO                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC                                             
920 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004                                                      
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...                                                  
PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR IN THE MID               
LEVELS BENEATH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 660 MB.  LOOKING              
AT THE CORRESPONDING THETA LAYERS 610-615K IN THE RUC... THE MODEL              
TAKES THE MOST SATURATED PORTIONS LOCATED TO THE SW AND NW OF THE               
RAH CWA AND GRADUALLY DRIES THE LAYER WITH MIXING AND SINKING AIR               
MOTION TODAY.                                                                   
NONE OF THE MODELS QUITE CAPTURED THE VERTICAL DETAIL OF THIS                   
MORNINGS SOUNDINGS NOR THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBSIDENCE WARMING AND               
DRYING.  ALL SHOW SOME COOLING ALOFT AND DESTABILIZATION THIS                   
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AIRMASS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR POSSIBLE               
THUNDER.  LACK OF CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES IN THE CWA SHOULD KEEP THE             
CONVECTIVE CELLS ISOLATED.                                                      
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORTS FULL SUN HIGHS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES HIGHER            
THAN CURRENT GRID FORECASTS. A SLIGHT MAX TEMPERATURE INCREASE MAY              
BE IN ORDER.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
NC...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SHORT TERM (UPDATE)...RFG                                                       
</PRE></TT></td>   nc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
1030 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004                                                     
NO BIG CHANGES TO GOING FCST. WILL BUMP UP TEMPS A BIT IN THE WEST              
THIS AFTN AS LOW LEVEL SWLY FLO ALLOWS FOR GOOD WARMUP.  DRY FCST               
FOR THIS AFTN LOOKS GOOD WITH LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT A BIT AND WK UPR            
RDG OVER THE AREA.                                                              
02                                                                              
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK                                              
248 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
00Z OUN AND LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SOURCE OF ELEVATED                  
INSTABILITY BEGINNING AROUND 850 MB WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IN                   
PROGRESS AND SATELLITE CONFIRMING SCATTERED CLOUD DEVELOPMENT                   
AT VARIOUS HEIGHTS AND LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. WITH             
THE WEAKEST CIN AND STRONGEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET            
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA...MOST IF NOT ALL DEVELOPMENT                
SHOULD REMAIN EAST. BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS            
OR SO TO SEE IF CURRENT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT EVOLVES FURTHER WHICH MAY             
NECESSITATE LOW POPS FOR SOUTHERN AND/OR EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA              
THROUGH THE MORNING.                                                            
OTHERWISE...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN UPPER               
LOW OVER NEVADA WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES NEARING THE              
AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW FORMS OVER THE TEXAS            
PANHANDLE. WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER KANSAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH             
OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS PERIOD...AND THE LATTER UPPER LOW LIKELY               
TOO WEAK TO BE A MAJOR PLAYER..IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET ANY                   
CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. EVEN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCES MAY NOT             
BE AS HIGH AS EARLIER THOUGHT. ETA SHOWS MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY                
FLOW OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO WEST TEXAS UPPER LOW...WHICH WOULD            
HELP STEER CONVECTION THAT FORMS NEAR THE FRONT AWAY FROM THE AREA.             
HAVE KEPT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF POPS INTACT FOR WEDNESDAY                       
NIGHT...BUT HAVE LOWERED THEM IN MOST PLACES.                                   
THURSDAY/FRIDAY ARE THE MOST UNCERTAIN WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE             
MODELS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO MODIFY THE LONGER WAVE               
PATTERN AND EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. REDUCED POPS ONLY SLIGHTLY               
THURSDAY FOR THE SAME REASONS AS ABOVE AND RAISED HIGHS IN THE                  
NORTH. OTHERWISE...VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THESE DAYS. THE             
FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME DURING THESE             
PERIODS...SUPPORTING CHANCE POPS/COOLER TEMPS/AND MORE CLOUD COVER.             
FRONT SHOULD EITHER CLEAR THE AREA OR WEAKEN OVER THE AREA BY                   
SATURDAY.                                                                       
&&                                                                              
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...                                                
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  90  68  92  69 /   0   0   0  20                              
HOBART OK         92  68  94  70 /   0   0   0  20                              
WICHITA FALLS TX  92  69  94  72 /   0   0   0  20                              
GAGE OK           92  66  95  66 /   0   0   0  20                              
PONCA CITY OK     91  68  94  69 /   0   0   0  20                              
DURANT OK         90  69  92  71 /   0   0   0  10                              
&&                                                                              
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
OK...NONE.                                                                      
TX...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JAMES                                                                           
</PRE></TT></td>   ok                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC                                          
1005 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004                                                     
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...ONGOING MORNING CONVECTION IS MOVING THROUGH              
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GA ZONES NEAR MILLEN.  RUC SHOWS A S/W TROF             
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WHICH IS THE LIKELY CULPRIT.  ADDITIONAL                
STORMS ARE STILL FORMING OVER SOUTHERN GA NEAR VIDALIA AND THE                  
EASTERLY MOVEMENT SHOULD BRING THIS CONVECTION INTO THE GA ZONES BY             
LATE MORNING.  WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUNDINGS AT BOTH CHS AND JAX            
...WILL NEED TO UP POPS ESPECIALLY IN GA WHERE SHOWERS ARE ALREADY              
FORMING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF SAV.                                   
&&                                                                              
.MARINE...HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE COASTAL TO INCLUDE LIGHT NE WINDS            
THIS MORNING VEERING TO THE SE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH THE WEAK             
SFC FLOW...SEAS SHOULD STAY AT 2 FT OR LESS.  HAVE KEPT MENTION OF              
SCATTERED TSTMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.                                          
&&                                                                              
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
GA...NONE.                                                                      
SC...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
PY                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   sc                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT                                          
1000 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004                                                     
.UPDATE...                                                                      
UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG HAS LIFTED TO               
STRATUS AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING IN VT. IN NRN NY THIS              
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL MOISURE EXISTS THIS                
MORNING ALTHOUGH GSP IPW SENSOR SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DOWN             
TO AROUND 0.75 INCHES ACROSS NRN NY AND 0.90 AT KMPV. EXPECT SCT CU             
DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR FLATTENING INTO AC WITH STRONG INVERSION AT                
650 MB ON THE KALY SOUNDING. RUC SHOWS SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO FAR                
WESTERN ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY 21Z TODAY BUT AGAIN IT APPEARS FROM              
MODEL SOUNDING THAT THE MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL BE TOUGH TO CRACK.             
AT MOST AN ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO             
MENTION IN GRIDS. 850 TEMPS FROM SOUNDINGS AND ACARS ACROSS THE                 
REGION OF AROUND 10 DEG C SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH                    
READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO PERHAPS 80 IN THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST.                
LAWRENCE VALLEYS.                                                               
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...                                                         
SHORT TERM...                                                                   
DURG THE MID AND LATE PORTION OF THIS WEEK...THERE WILL BE A SERIES             
OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND AN UPR LVL LO VCNTY OF HDSN BAY                   
CANADA.                                                                         
CURRENTLY A WK SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH SATURATED SOIL                 
CONDS AND PLENTY OF LO LVL RESIDUAL MOISTURE THUS FOG IS                        
WIDESPREAD ACRS THE AREA. WL HAVE A PD OF ERLY MRNG FG IN                       
TODAYS ZONES WITH FOG ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE AREA ERLY THIS MRNG.                  
H/5 00Z ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS THERMAL TROF EXITING NEW ENG WITH WK WAA            
EXPECTED TODAY WITH WK H/5 RDG BUILDING INTO OUR AREA. LO LVL MOIST             
NOTED ON ALY 00Z SOUNDING BUT BUF DRY AND THATS A GOOD SIGN.                    
THUS PLEASANT WX TDY AS WK SFC HI MOVS OFF MID ATLC CST THIS                    
AFTN/EVE. THEN WK SHORT WAVE MOVS ACRS SRN CANADA LTR TNGT SO WL                
INTRODUCE CLDS AFTR MIDN...THEN NXT VORT WL DESTABLIZE ATMOS FOR CHC            
AFTN/EVE SHWR/TSTM WED.                                                         
&&                                                                              
.LONGER RANGE...                                                                
EXPECT A BREAK IN PCPN WED NGT MIDN TO 6AM...WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES.              
THEN STGR SHORTWV THURS WL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHWR/TSTM DURG THE DAY           
AS CDFNT MOVS FM CANADA ERLY THURS INTO NEW ENG BY THURS NGT. MODELS            
SUGGEST PRE-FNTL TROF ASOCD WITH THIS SYS SO RAINFALL MAY BE MORE OF            
A CONCERN AGAIN.                                                                
BULK OF FRI SHUD BE DRY WITH FNTL BNDRY SETTLING OVR SRN PTN OF FA              
OR JUST S OF OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...MODELS INDC LO PRES WV MOVG NE              
ALG FNT FM ERN GRTLKS SAT SPREADING RN ACRS AREA SAT MRNG AND                   
SHWRS/TSTMS SAT AFTN. I REALIZE THAT IT IS AUGUST BUT THIS WAVE                 
LOOKS REALISTIC.                                                                
FINALLY...DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA SAT NIGHT FOLLOWING ASOCD              
CDFNT PASSAGE. A NICE DAY SEEMS TO BE SHAPING UP FOR SUNDAY AND                 
MONDAY.                                                                         
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDS THROUGH 12Z EXPECTED IN DENSE GROUND FOG.             
CEIL/VIS SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT AFTER 12Z TO VFR CONDS UNDER LIGHT                 
WINDS. SCT CU BASES FROM 040-060 ALONG W/SCT CI NEAR 250 SHOULD                 
PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH CI/CS SHIELD INCREASING/LOWERING TO                 
SCT-BKN200 BY 00Z.                                                              
&&                                                                              
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
VT...NONE.                                                                      
NY...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
UPDATE...SISSON                                                                 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SFH/JMG                                                   
</PRE></TT></td>   vt                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS                                            
221 PM MDT TUE AUG 17 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE FRONTAL TIMING              
ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY PRECIPITATION CHANCES.                                 
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING SUBSIDENT AREA                   
ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS EXTENDING               
INTO NORTHERN TEXAS WITH A POTENT SHORT WAVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN               
AREA.                                                                           
BOTH ETA/GFS APPEAR RATHER SIMILAR IN FRONTAL TIMING FOR WEDNESDAY              
WHICH WILL LIKELY LIMIT HIGHS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES             
WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S AROUND YUMA TO NEAR 90 HILL            
CITY. WILL INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS POINT                     
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTENING THROUGH THE COLUMN AS SHORT WAVE MOVES            
OUT OF THE ROCKIES WITH GOOD FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS            
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.                                                         
THURSDAY...700 MB TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE KANSAS COLORADO               
BORDER THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW SO                   
CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE POPS/BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.                           
ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS WESTERN                
RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND ANOTHER SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR BEGINS TO              
MOVE SOUTH. NORTHWEST FLOW AND LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP                     
TEMPERATURES FROM REBOUNDING TO QUICKLY...BUT TRIED TO INDICATE SOME            
WARMING FROM PREVIOUS DAY WITH READINGS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO           
AROUND 80. THE NEXT BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT            
AND WILL BE LACKING MOISTURE WITH NO PLAN TO ADD POPS AT THIS TIME.             
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN                
ZONES AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES INTO THE AREA IN NORTHWEST                
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO WARM WITH SOME MID/UPPER               
CLOUDS COMBINED WITH THE REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR.                        
THE MAIN CHANCE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIODS WAS TO            
TREND TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD UNTIL DAY 7 WHEN WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES            
AND MOVES EASTWARD.                                                             
&&                                                                              
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
NE...NONE.                                                                      
CO...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
MWM                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   ks                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN                              
315 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCEMENT APPROACHING              
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. THIS CORRESPONDS             
TO AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON THE RUC MODEL. THERE DOES               
NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL FORCING OR INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT             
PRECIPITATION THIS FAR NORTH THIS EVENING. GENERALLY WEAK LOW TO MID            
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF             
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM CANADA. THINK THE SCREAMING MESSAGE             
IS NOT THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT THE COLD             
ADVECTION LATE WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AND A SECOND SURGE              
OF COLD AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY CANADIAN FRONT ON FRIDAY. A BAND OF              
MID LEVEL FORCING...AND K INDICES IN THE 20S ACCOMPANY EACH COLD                
FRONT SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST                 
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW PRECEDING THESE COLD               
FRONT LOOKS DISRUPTED DO TO SYSTEMS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES              
AND THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS                 
ALONG WITH THE FORECAST UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND PRECIPITABLE WATER              
VALUES...CAN NOT SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS WITH                  
EITHER FRONT.                                                                   
LONGER TERM...FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE                                             
ON FRI NIGHT...500MB TROF PUSHES SE OF AREA BRINING AN END TO                   
LINGERING PRECIP. WEAK UPPER LVL TROF PUSHES THRU SAT BUT DRY AIR AT            
LOW LVLS DUE TO PASSING SFC HIGH MEANS ONLY HIGH CLDS WITH SYSTEM.              
NEXT WAVE TO AFFECT AREA WILL APPROACH FROM SW SAT NIGHT. WAA KICKS             
IN AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE OVER NEBRASKA. THIS WAVE CREATES              
LOW PRES TROF SUN OVER DAKOTAS WHICH CROSS CWA MON EVE FROM W TO E.             
WITH INCREASING RH SAT NIGHT AND PROXIMITY OF 850MB FRONT HAVE ADDED            
20 POPS FOR TSRA FAR SW ZONES. S 2/3 ZONES WILL HAVE SCT TSRA SUN               
WITH BDRY IN AREA...AND ENTIRE CWA MENTIONED MON AND MON NIGHT AS               
TROF AND BEST LIFT MOVES THRU. FOR NOW HAVE TUE DRY...BUT WOULD NOT             
BE SURPRISE IF SMALL SHRA POP IS ADDED LATER PACKAGE DUE TO UPPER               
LEVEL TROF LINGERING OVHD WITH LOW LVL MOISTURE AND WEAK 700MB WAVE             
MOVING THRU.                                                                    
&&                                                                              
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                              
MN...NONE.                                                                      
WI...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
</PRE></TT></td>   mn                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO                           
322 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004                                                      
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL FOCUS ON TWO FRONTS...A WEAK ONE THIS                  
AFTERNOON...AND A STRONGER ONE COMING IN FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND            
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS BASICALLY A NORTHWEST               
FLOW WITH STRONG POLAR VORTEX OVER CANADA.                                      
CURRENT FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING DECENT PROGRESS THROUGH THE FORECAST              
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 700 MB SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS AND                  
WEIGHT OF COOLER AIR IN WESTERN IOWA HELPING OUT. SURFACE WAVE ALONG            
THIS FRONT IS PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM                  
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN AREAS. EXPECT THIS WAVE TO BE MOVING OFF INTO            
ILLINOIS BY EARLY EVENING...AND WESTERN END OF THIS FRONT STALLING              
OUT AS RETURN FLOW SETS UP ACROSS PLAINS THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO            
NEXT SHORT WAVE HEADING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THUS THINK CHANCE OF               
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO EVENING HOURS. WAA TONIGHT SETS UP            
TO THE NORTH OF FORECAST AREA...WITH MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN                 
NEBRASKA AND IOWA LATE TONIGHT. NEXT FRONT SHOULD BE APPROACHING                
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF                  
THUNDERSTORMS. FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI THURSDAY            
MORNING AS UPPER WAVE MOVES PAST. THIS WAVE SHOULD DEEPEN THE VORTEX            
IN CANADA...PUSHING COLDER AIR FURTHER SOUTH. THUS FRONT WILL WAVER             
IN AREA ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKING MORE INTERESTING AS WAVE            
COMING OUT OF SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS HEADS OUR WAY. WITH BOUNDARY IN              
REGION...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF...ETA SHOWING              
HEAVIER RAINFALL DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL BE                  
INCREASING POPS A BIT.                                                          
PC                                                                              
THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND IS                       
TEMPERATURES. THE LONGWAVE WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO A             
PRETTY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND FORECASTING THE              
ULTIMATE DESTINATION OF THE COLD AIR OVER NORTH CENTRAL CANADA IS               
TOUGH. ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PROG THE DEMISE OF THE OMEGA              
BLOCK OVER ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT MORE                    
AGGRESSIVE BREAKING THIS FEATURE DOWN THAN THE EUROPEAN MODELS, AND             
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER ON THE GFS AS A RESULT. THE LONGER THE            
BLOCK HOLDS, THE HIGHER THE LIKELIHOOD FOR COOL AIR OVER THE                    
WEEKEND. A STRONGER BLOCK AND MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A              
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE CANADIAN POLAR VORTEX, AND SUBSEQUENTLY             
A COOLER SURGE OF AIR FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI SATURDAY. FOR NOW, I                
HAVE DEVIATED LITTLE FROM TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM THE HPC, BUT                
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF READINGS WERE COOLER FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND             
SUNDAY. RECORD COLD TEMPERATURES LIKE LAST WEEKEND ARE UNLIKELY                 
GIVEN THE BREAK DOWN OF THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN, BUT TEMPERATURES            
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ARE POSSIBLE AS WE EXPERIENCE A                   
GLANCING BLOW OF CHILLY CANADIAN AIR.                                           
KOCH                                                                            
&&                                                                              
.PREV DISCUSSION...                                                             
924 AM...                                                                       
MAKING SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TODAY AND EVENING CHANCES OF                       
THUNDERSTORMS BASED ON WHERE FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN NORTHWEST CORNER             
OF MISSOURI...AND ITS SLOWER PROGRESSION THROUGH AREA THIS MORNING.             
BASED ON RUC DEPICTION OF POSITION BY EARLY AFTERNOON...MAY SEE                 
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS AREAS FROM ST JOSEPH TO                         
KIRKSVILLE...THEN HEADING SOUTHEAST RATHER RAPIDLY AS FRONT FINALLY             
SURGES SOUTH THIS EVENING.                                                      
PC                                                                              
350 AM...                                                                       
MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE FORECASTING THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE            
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEK. REGION REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF                        
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW. THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES SHOULD                
SEND THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI TODAY. THE                 
FRONT IS VERY WEAK WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE ALONG IT...AND MAY NOT               
MAKE IT INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW HAVE IT MAKING IT TO AROUND HIGHWAY              
36 BEFORE BECOMING TOO WEAK TO FIND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE                   
EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI SOUNDINGS INDICATED A MID LEVEL             
CAP DEVELOPING...EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ON              
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CAP. SO WITH NO CAP AND A WEAK BOUNDARY                 
MOVING THROUGH...HAVE MAINTAINED 30 POPS ACROSS EASTERN COUNTIES                
ONLY. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LI/S FROM -3 TO -6 AND CAPE               
GREATER THAN 2500 J/KG PROGGED. IF STORMS GET GOING...MAY HAVE TO               
BUMP POPS BACK UP TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONT.                                  
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE               
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED                  
TO DEVELOP ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. A FEW OF THESE MAY PUSH INTO              
MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND                  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THICKNESS FIELDS INDICATE STORMS WILL SLOW DOWN              
DRAMATICALLY ONCE REACHING NORTHERN MISSOURI.                                   
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY               
EVENING. AIRMASS SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO            
THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S. HAVE 40 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST               
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH                
MORE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.                                               
OTHERWISE HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY                
WITH FEWER CLOUDS EXPECTED AND GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE.              
NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.                                                          
NRR                                                                             
&&                                                                              
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
KS...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
$$                                                                              
WFOEAX                                                                          
</PRE></TT></td>   mo                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ                                         
310 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2004                                                      
.SYNOPSIS...FEELS MORE LIKE 17TH OF SEPT WITH NICE SUN AND THE                  
VERY COMFORTABLE TEMPS/DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY 1 90 DEGREE           
DAY IN AUG BUT BUT THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS YEARS WITHOUT REACHING 90           
IN AUG WITH THE LAST ONE BEING 1984. BUT, THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS AND            
TSTMS NEARBY. RUC COMPOSITE SHOWING AREA OF INSTABILITY OVER THE                
CHESAPEAKE BAY MOVING E UNDER UPPER LVL JET. GFS AND RUC DOING BEST             
JOB WITH THE PCPN WHICH IS CARRIED INTO THE EVENING AND                         
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO OFF AND RUNNING WITH CHC PCPN. THNX                        
LWX/AKQ/CTP/OKX FOR COORD.                                                      
&&                                                                              
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...MORE OF THE SAME                
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS WITH UPPER               
RIDGE OVER THE SE STATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE LOW               
OVER HUDSONS BAY S TO MID ATLANTIC REGION. SFC FRONT APPRROACHES                
LATE                                                                            
THU BUT WASHES OUT AGAIN AS QUICK FLOW REMAINS NORTH OF THE CFA. WEST           
ATLANTIC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD AND THAT TRANSLATES       
TO SEASONAL WEATHER (TEMPS/DP'S) THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND YES, AND               
INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY. (SEE CLIMAT BELOW)                                    
&&                                                                              
.LONG TERM (THU THROUGH TUE)...AND MORE OF THE SAME WITH THE                    
EXCEPTION OF A BREAK IN THE PCPN SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT FLOW               
BECOMES ZONAL AND STRONGER FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST AND ANOTHER                
REFRESHING HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION.                                 
&&                                                                              
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST OFF OF THE NEW            
JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS THIS EVENING. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO                
PARK ITSELF OFFSHORE AND INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY             
AND DELAWARE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT FROM THE                 
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FORECAST WATERS LATE THURSDAY             
OR EARLY FRIDAY. WITH THE OFFSHORE HIGH IN PLACE, THE FRONT SHOULD              
DISSIPATE TO OUR WEST AND HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. A                
SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE                 
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST WATERS EARLY ON             
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH OFFSHORE FINALLY BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.                       
WE'LL START THE NEW PACKAGE OFF WITH AN "INTO THIS EVENING" AS                  
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE STILL PREVAILING. THEY ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.               
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHERLY TOMORROW AND INCREASE. THE                 
OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REACT TO THIS AND GET A BIT MORE CHOPPY, BUT                
STILL REMAIN UNDER SCA. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER BY              
THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT. A             
SCA FOR WINDS AND/OR SEAS IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.                             
&&                                                                              
.AVIATION...                                                                    
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE               
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOG-PRONE                  
AIRPORTS, COULD SEE MVFR VSBYS BY DAYBREAK. ALSO, ISOLATED SHOWERS              
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED, MORE SO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN               
AIRPORTS. THUS, ISOLATED POCKETS OF IFR COULD BE ENCOUNTERED.                   
&&                                                                              
.CLIMAT...CHECKING THE RECORDS THIS YEAR SO FAR THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN            
8 DAYS OF 90 OR ABOVE 2-MAY AND JUN, 3 IN JULY AND 1 SO FAR IN                  
AUGUST FOR A TOTAL OF 8. I BELIEVE THE LEAST 90'S IN A YEAR 8(1920?)            
AND, WE'VE ONLY ISSUED HEAT ADVISORIES FOR TWO DAYS IN JUNE(8-9) AND            
NO WARNINGS. BUT, WHERE THERE HAS BEEN NO HEAT THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY            
OF RAIN AND FLOODING.                                                           
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                             
PA...NONE.                                                                      
NJ...NONE.                                                                      
MD...NONE.                                                                      
DE...NONE.                                                                      
MARINE...NONE.                                                                  
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
SYNOPSIS...                                                                     
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...EBERWINE                                                 
AVIATION...KRUZDLO                                                              
MARINE...KRUZDLO                                                                
</PRE></TT></td>   pa                                                           

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION                                                        
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN                                             
1136 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004                                                     
.DISCUSSION...                                                                  
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH AS                
THEY ENTER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS AND           
STORMS WERE TRIGGERED BY A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED ACROSS              
MISSOURI AND NORTH ARKANSAS LAST NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO                
WEAKEN AS NOTED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS...AND THE SHORT-TERM MODEL                
GUIDANCE (RUC & MESOETA) INDICATES A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. SO              
PRECIP WORDING WILL MOST LIKELY NEED UPDATING OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2              
HOURS AS PRECIP DISSIPATES.                                                     
LINGERING CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...           
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THESE CLOUDS ARE               
BEGINNING TO MIX OUT...BUT MAY HAVE HAMPERED TEMP TRENDS. SO AN                 
UPDATE TO TEMPS MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...BUT WILL           
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WELL OVER NEXT HOUR OR SO. CLOUDS FOR                    
NORTHERN HALF LOOK GOOD...BUT A CHANGE TO MOSTLY SUNNY WILL LIKELY              
BE NECESSARY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES.                                               
UPDATES TO ZONES FOR SHORT-TERM CHANGES PLANNED BETWEEN NOW AND 18Z.            
&&                                                                              
.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...                                           
AR...NONE.                                                                      
MS...NONE.                                                                      
MO...NONE.                                                                      
TN...NONE.                                                                      
&&                                                                              
$$                                                                              
JLH                                                                             
</PRE></TT></td>   tn                                                           

