From: Michael Dillon <memracom@yahoo.com>
To: <IPv6@ntia.doc.gov>
Date: Tue, Feb 10, 2004 11:38 AM
Subject: IPv6 Deployment in the USA
1) Benefits and possible uses
A major benefit of IPv6 deployment is to release the
IP networking industry from the constraints of an
artificial shortage of addresses. The end result of
this artificial shortage has been an overstrong
interventionist role for ARIN (American Registry for
Internet Numbers). This has constrained the ways in
which businesses can deploy and use IP networking
technology which, in turn, stifles the market for
creative new communications services. IPv6 is not a
magic bullet but it does unleash the possibility of
creative uses for networks that would require large
numbers of addressable endpoints such as portable
communications devices (21st century cellphones) and
intelligent households. Imagine a world in which your
baby monitor can page you during an evening concert
when the decibel level passes a certain threshold.
This would require both baby monitor and
cellphone/pager to have unique addresses that can
communicate over the Internet. Similar scenarios might
involve a security service which monitors fire sensors
in commercial buildings in order to develop a
sophisticated profile of what constitutes "normal"
operations so that management can be alerted when
abnormal situations occur and intervene before
employee mistakes result in property damage events.
2) Current conditions regarding deployment of IPv6
Dividing the world into three regions, Asia-Pacific,
Europe and North America, it is fair to say that IPv6
deployment is most advanced in Asia-Pacific. Europe is
perhaps a year behind them and North-America is two to
three years behind Europe. This is not a good
situation to be in considering that the two major
manufacturers of IP networking equipment (Cisco and
Juniper) are both American companies. It creates a
vacuum into which Asian companies could expand
enabling them to eventually dominate Internet routing
and switching services. Because of the push into IPv6
by the populous Asian countries, the pressure on IPv4
addresses has greatly diminished and the projected
exhaustion point has moved from 2006 to approximately
2025. There is a danger that American companies will
interpret this as an excuse for not planning their
IPv6 strategy and when market demand for IPv6 does
materialize, offshore operators such as NTT will be in
a stronger position to meet that demand than U.S.
companies. The main role for the NTIA in regard to
IPv6 deployment should be to ensure that all American
companies have incorporated IPv6 into their strategic
plans and roadmaps and begun the process of
familiarization with IPv6. This would mitigate many
risks by ensuring that American companies could deploy
quickly when IPv6 market conditions mandate action.
3) Economic, technical and other barriers
There are no serious economic or technical barriers.
It is true that some money would need to be spent to
upgrade software such as operating system versions or
routing software, but such upgrades are already a
normal business expense and simply a matter of time.
On the technical side, it is true that some IPv6
software is not as fully optimized as the IPv4
equivalent but this is mitigated to some extent by
more powerful hardware in both computers and routers.
Again, a prudent shift into IPv6 through phased
deployment is both economically and technically
possible today. The major barrier to implementation is
psychological. Both technologists and managers are too
comfortable with the status quo and are not willing to
put the required effort into continued learning and
knowledge aquisition. This is not something that can
be easily changed by government because it is an
inherent characteristic of the larger organizations
which now dominate the Internet. ISPs have merged with
telcos, router and switch manufacturers have
consolidated, and even large enterprise users of
networked communications have experienced a lot of
consolidation. The role of government should be to
focus on supporting the innovative small firms who
fill the same position in the network ecology that
ISPs filled in the 1994-1996 timeframe when the
Internet grew 1500% per year. In particular,
continuing technology trends have sparked new markets
involving so-called embedded devices in which the
computer is merely a means toward and end, not the be
all and end all of the device. Consider some of the
latest cellphones with integrated pagers, digital
cameras and gameplaying. Or the home Internet gateway
routers that are more powerful than an Internet
backbone router from Cisco in 1994. It is quite
possible to evolve an IPv4 network into IPv6
incrementally beginning with a small number of IPv6
customer services at the edge. The V6OPS working group
of the IETF is currently working on a draft RFC that
explains how the various transition scenarios can be
achieved and this document should be included in the
NTIA review.
4) Appropriate role for government
The government should collect and disseminate
information on IPv6. Government is the collective
represntation of a society and in this respect, the
government should ensure that society is aware of what
IPv6 is, what IPv6 could do for us, and that IPv6 is
available today for those entrepreneurs and early
adopters who will invest some effort. Government can
illuminate the road ahead and government can ask
questions of business leaders and of various domestic
non-governmental organizations. Government should help
to create a domestic IPv6 market by funding
appropriate research projects, supporting educational
institutions in offering IPv6 learning programs and by
demanding that all vendors of software and hardware
bidding on government contracts have a clearly
delineated roadmap to IPv6 that is published on their
websites. It is not yet appropriate for government to
require the use of IPv6 where the technology does not
provide clear benefits, but it is appropriate to
demand that vendors give some thought to future plans
and communicate those plans to the public and to the
government.
Thank you
--Michael Dillon
Internet user since 1992
In the ISP industry since 1994
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