FXUS63 KMKX 160843
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
340 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2004

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON TEMPS/WINDS AND ENDING PCPN TODAY.
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO RESOLVING MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR ISENTROPIC
PCPN IN SUN NGT/MON TIME FRAME.

984MN SFC LOW EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD PER
PRES FALL PATTERN. MXK CWA WILL BE IN CHILLY CYCLONIC FLOW TODAY...
BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. TRAJ SUGGESTS TEMPS THAT WILL NOT MAKE
MOS VALUES. READINGS ALREADY RUNNING ANYWHERE 1 TO 4 DEGREES COOLER
THAN MOS. GIVEN EXTENSIVE SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDINESS AND PCPN...
ANY NOTEWORTHY RECOVERY WILL BE DIFFICULT.

TRENDS IN WATER VAPOR SUGGEST VORT AXIS INDUCED PCPN ACRS CWA WILL
BE MAINLY MRNG SHOW WITH UPR SYS TREKKING INTO LWR MI BY 18Z. SOME
SPOTTY SLEET SHOWING UP IN OBS AND RADAR TRENDS CONFIRM THIS WITH
POCKETS OF HIGHER DBZS. TEMPS/TDS STILL LOOK FAIRLY WARM FOR SNOW
AND STILL A LOT OF LIQUID PCPN NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. THINK BULK
OF PCPN WILL OUTRACE THE MIXY POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL STICJK WITH
RAIN...PER TELCO WITH COUNTIES...NO MIXY REPORTED...SO ONLY ISOLD
SLEET AT BEST. WINDY LOOK TO FCST STILL ON TRACK WITH TIGHT SFC-H8
PRES GRAD.

GFS AND ETA STILL SPORTING THEIR DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
EVOLVING ISENTROPIC EVENT SUN NGT AND MON. ETA STILL SHOWING LTL
TO NO QPF MON AND THEN BRING PCPN ACRS MON NGT. GFS BRINGS QPF INTO
SW CWA LATE SUN NGT. POTENTIAL THERE FOR DRY LLVL EASTERLY FEED TO
WARD OFF PCPN ADVANCEMENT. HOWEVER ETA ISENTROPIC PLOTS...
MOISTURE AND LIFT WISE...MATCH GFS PCPN TRENDS. GIVEN
PATTERN...ETA COND PRES DEFICITS LOOK HIGH. ETA DOES DEVELOP ISEN
INDUCED LIFT INTO CWA MON AFTN. BOTTOM LINE...WILL MAINTAIN MON POP
DEPITE DRY LOOK TO ETA QPF.

&&

.MKX...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$