####018004281#### FXUS63 KLSX 160531 AFDLSX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1131 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009 .UPDATE... /815 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009/ MAIN FOCUS ON THIS UPDATE IS AREA OF SC CLOUDS OVER CNTRL IL THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING SWD WITH STEERING FLOW. THERE ALSO IS A SLIGHT EWD COMPONENT TO THE MOVEMENT AS WELL. WE NOW EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE ERN FA TONIGHT AND THIS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS WELL. HAVE ALSO EDGED MIN TEMP FCST UP AS WELL IN THIS AREA. THE REST OF THE FCST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL REVISIT TEMP TRENDS ELSEWHERE LATER THIS EVENING. TES && .DISCUSSION... /327 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009/ HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOW SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN A SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT. THE NEW FCST LOWERS TEMPS A TAD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS GENERALLY NEAR THE COLD SIDE OF THE MOS GUIDANCE PACKAGE. THIS LARGE HIGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER A BIT LONGER ON MONDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THE SLOWER RETREAT WILL RESULT IN A DELAY OF S/SELY SFC FLOW AND WAA FOR AT LEAST THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. ACCORDINGLY THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY GIVEN THIS REGIME AND THE COLD START TO THE DAY. WAA SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED ON MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WAA RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WAA REGIME SHOULD STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING SLY WINDS. DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND ACCORDINGLY WITH A NICE WARM-UP AND MANY LOCATIONS PUSHING INTO THE 50S. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TYPICALLY MORE BULLISH GFS QPF...THE REMAINDER OF THE NWP GUIDANCE IS VOID OF PCPN ON TUESDAY ...ALONG WITH MANY FEATURES THAT WOULD SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLD COVERAGE. I COULDNT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS AND HENCE I HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THIS CATEGORY. DESPITE A DECENT SPREAD IN THE PSN OF THE SFC LOW...THE NEWER GUIDANCE IS STILL SUPPORTIVE OF YDAS RUNS TRENDS THAT THE CHANCE OF PCPN WILL RAMP UP ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. THIS IS EVIDENT VIA AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIGRATING LOW AMPLITUDE SHRTWV TROF AND LOW LEVEL WAA... COMBINED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. ATTM THE BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WOULD APPEAR TO BE NRN MO AND WRN IL TRAILING INTO SE MO. THE LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO CONTS TO SUPPORT A LOW THUNDER THREAT PROGGING A ELEVATED LAYER OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. AS MENTIONED...THERE IS A DECENT SPREAD IN THE PSN OF THE SFC LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS FCST SIDES WITH THE LATEST SREF WITH A PSN INVOF OF ERN IA AT 12Z...MOVING INTO THE LOWER GRTLKS REGION BY 00Z THURS. THIS PSN WOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWERY PCPN AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT SFC TROF/CDFNT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL IN THE WAKE OF THE CDFNT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS USHER COLDER AIR SEWD. I HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS PRIMARILY NE MO INTO WEST CENTRAL IL DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHO THE MEASUREABLE PCPN MAY BE LONG OVER BY THE TIME THE COLD AIR ARRIVES. THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE MARKED BY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS A DEEP LONG WAVE TROF DOMINATES ERN NOAM WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE MS VLY. ANOTHER POTENT TROF MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FOR NEXT WEEKEND. GLASS && .AVIATION... /1126 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009/ FOR THE 06Z TAFS...HAVE BACKED OFF ON FG DEVELOPMENT AT SUS THIS MORNING. APPEARS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. AREA OF MVFR CIGS OVER SW IL MAY ALSO PREVENT FG IF IT CAN CONTINUE TO MOVE W. THINK THAT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS WILL REMAIN E OF THE STL AND SUS SITES. DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE E AND WINDS WILL VEER TO BECOME SELY DURING THE DAY MON. TILLY && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX ####018006670#### FXUS64 KCRP 160532 AAB AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1132 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009 .DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF IFR CIGS WHERE LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED. STRATUS WILL BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY OUT WEST, WHERE DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 09Z. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT FORECAST FOR CIGS. IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE ON TAP FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 907 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009/ DISCUSSION...ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THAT WAS IN PROGRESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS GENERALLY ENDED...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A BREAK IN PRECIP UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN UPGLIDE WILL RESUME OUT WEST...THEN SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL FORECAST ZONES TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. GRIDDED FORECASTS SHOW THESE TRENDS WELL SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY UPDATES TO THE GRIDS, BUT WILL SEND OUT A NEW ZFP TO GET RID OF EVENING WORDING. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 541 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009/ DISCUSSION...AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY NE OF US181...WITH MVFR CEILINGS ELSEWHERE...WL TRANSITION TO PREDOMINATE MVFR CEILINGS AREAWIDE AFT 06Z MON WITH SOME LOCATIONS WEST OF SR16 UNDER IFR CEILINGS. EXPECT PATCHY LGT RAIN TO DEVELOP WEST OF SR16 AFT 09Z MON...WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY...THEN SPREAD EWD TO COVER ENTIRE AREA BY 16Z MON. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009/ SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...PATCHY RAIN AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...DESPITE MODELS INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFT WOULD DECREASE. HAVE INSERTED PATCHY RAIN/ISOLATED SHOWERS BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL INCREASE AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWER ACROSS THE WEST. INITIALLY WILL SEE GRADUAL LOWERING OF CLOUDS EARLY MONDAY MORNING MIXED WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF DRIZZLE...THEN EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING. THIS PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP THE TEMPS COOL ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT LIKELY TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER 50S FOR HIGHS. WITH REGARDS TO THE COASTAL TROUGH AND PRECIP MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HAVE AGAIN FOLLOWED CLOSE TO THE GFS AS PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE...GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY IT HAS SHOWN RUN TO RUN. IN FACT...18Z NAM IS NOW CLOSE TO WHAT THE GFS IS SHOWING MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE BOUNDARY/COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE ORIENTED ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT... EVENTUALLY LIFTING INLAND INTO PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. UPGLIDE PATTERN PEAKS ACROSS THE EAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. EXPECT STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA QUICKLY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. FOG WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE EVENING. PRECIP MAY BECOME MORE SHOWERY AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND WHEN THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE COASTAL AREAS. MARINE...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGHTEN OVER THE GULF WATERS. WINDS OFFSHORE ARE ALREADY AT OR NEAR SCA CRITERIA...AND NEARSHORE WILL REACH SCA MONDAY MORNING. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...GENERALLY FOLLOWING GFS SOLUTION ON TIMING OF BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON TUESDAY...BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH AND ISENTROPIC PATTERN ENDS...THUS MOST OF RAIN SHOULD BE DONE BY NOON EXCEPT OVER THE EAST/NORTHEAST WHERE ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY MAY BE PRESENT FOR SHOWERS. STILL ENOUGH OF CAP AND NO UPPER SUPPORT SO DID NOT MENTION THUNDER. WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY...GFS NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS BUT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SEE WARM DAY. MAINTAINED PRECIP WEDNESDAY MORNING NORTHEAST (AND ACTUALLY PUT LOW POPS IN NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT) AS MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY COULD LEND TO SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE FOR SHOWERS. COULD SEE SOME FOG BEFORE THE FRONT WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR THAT AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER FRONT (CANADIAN IN NATURE) COMES DOWN ON THURSDAY BUT NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. GFS (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ECMWF) ATTEMPTS TO BRING THE MOISTURE BACK FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT RE-ENFORCING HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY PRECLUDES THE CHANCE UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN WITH HIGH MOVING EAST AND DEEPENING LOW/TROUGH IN PLAINS. STILL...NO MENTION OF RAIN AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH IF GFS VERIFIES ITS ISENTROPIC PATTERN COULD SEE SOMETHING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT (WAY TOO EARLY TO BITE ON THIS ISENTROPIC PATTERN SINCE GFS NOT ALWAYS RELIABLE WITH THIS EVEN IN THE FIRST TWO DAYS MUCH LESS DAY 7-PLUS). WARM DAYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN A COOL DOWN WITH MORE CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BLEND OF MOS TRENDS AND ISC COLLABORATION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 56 62 58 77 62 / 10 40 50 20 10 VICTORIA 50 60 52 74 61 / 10 30 50 40 20 LAREDO 54 59 52 80 62 / 30 50 40 10 10 ALICE 54 61 55 79 62 / 20 50 50 20 10 ROCKPORT 55 63 58 75 64 / 10 30 50 30 20 COTULLA 54 57 51 76 57 / 20 50 30 10 10 KINGSVILLE 56 62 58 79 62 / 10 50 50 20 10 NAVY CORPUS 58 63 60 73 64 / 10 40 50 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM... WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM. && $$ JAR/19...SHORT TERM/AVIATION ####018004001#### FXUS66 KHNX 160532 AFDHNX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA 932 PM PST SUN FEB 15 2009 .UPDATE...SURFACE WAVE ON APPROACHING FRONT IS ACCELERATING NORTH PAST SFO NOW. VORT MAX AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF FRONT IS NOW ADVANCING TOWARD THE CENTRAL COAST SOUTHWARD. MODELS BRING SHORTWAVE AND VORT TO PT CONCEPTION BY 12Z. EXPECT PRECIP TO REACH AT LEAST WEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND SPREAD EAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. UPDATED OVERNITE POPS A BIT FOR SLIGHTLY FASTER ARRIVAL. OTHERWISE...MAIN PRECIP TO AFFECT THE VALLEY AND DESERTS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN MORE SHOWERY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE TEHACHAPIS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE SRN SIERRA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL CONT IN THE MOUNTAINS THRU MON AS FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND STRONG OROGRAPHICS KICK IN. EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY AT THE BASE OF THE GRAPEVINE...WINDS ARE GOING TO BE VERY MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVEL. LEFT ADVISORY ALONE FOR NOW. REMAINDER OF FCST UNCHANGED AS WELL. && .DISCUSSION...HIGHS TODAY RANGE FROM A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO IN THE SOUTH END OF THE VALLEY THANKS TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS...TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO IN THE NORTH END THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE EVOLVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS BEGINNING TO REORIENT THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND WHICH IS NOW LIFTING NORTH OUT OF INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALIGNS MORE PARALLEL WITH THE COAST...MOST OF THE DISTRICT SHOULD SEE LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN ADDITIONAL IMPULSES DRIVE THE BOUNDARY INLAND. THIS WILL BRING HEALTHY AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HEAVY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO BRINGING STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS OVER AND BELOW THE MOUNTAINS OF KERN COUNTY AND THE HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE. ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY ARE OCCURRING AND EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE VALLEY AS THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE VALLEY FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES A BIT...WITH CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE MAIN SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY INLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN BY WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM BRINGING A POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE DISTRICT THIS EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AT AROUND 12Z MONDAY MORNING IN RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY ALSO OBSERVE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AFTER 12Z MONDAY. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE KERN COUNTY DESERT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... NONE && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM PST TUESDAY FOR CAZ095>097. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR CAZ095. WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM PST MONDAY FOR CAZ090-093-094. HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 PM PST MONDAY FOR CAZ092. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST MONDAY FOR CAZ089-091. && $$ PUBLIC...BINGHAM/JEB AVN/FW...MOLINA WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD ####018005085#### FXUS63 KTOP 160534 AFDTOP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 1134 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009 .UPDATE... UPDATE FOR 06 UTC AVIATION. && .DISCUSSION... SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH EXITING DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND A LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THIS CYCLE. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS STILL ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE WEST...WITH A LOSS OF GUSTINESS LIKELY AROUND SUNSET. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BRING SOME CONCERN FOR LLWS AND MVFR CLOUDS TOWARD THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST...BUT NEITHER IS WORTHY OF MENTION AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS SHOULD OTHERWISE BE LIMITED TO CIRRUS. 65 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009/ DISCUSSION... THE 20Z WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL CONUS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS DIGGING SOUTHWARD OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST. A DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CONUS. THE 20Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO NORTHERN TX. THE 200 PM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. ALONG THE NE BORDER TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 30S. THE 20Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWED THAT THE ONLY SNOW REMAINING ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE CWA WAS ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN REPUBLIC COUNTY NEAR THE NE BORDER. AN EXTENSIVE SNOW PACK WAS OBSERVED FROM NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI...WEST AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN IA...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NE...INTO NORTHEAST CO. TONIGHT AND MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES STATES AND MID MS RIVER VALLEY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WAA WILL HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE 5H LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST ONTO THE CENTRAL CA COAST. GARGAN AS THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT...LEESIDE SFC TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH STRONG LLVL WAA AND A VEERING JET. WITH WINDS STAYING UP MOST OF THE NIGHT/MIXING AND STRONG WAA...SOME POTENTIAL FOR A NON DIURNAL TEMP TREND...BUT CONFIDENCE AND TIMING THIS FAR OUT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DO SO AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER AN EVENING FALL INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT MAY END UP BEING THE TREND. THE STRONG WAA IN THE 750-850MB LAYER WILL STRENGTHEN THE EML SO A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. THE VEERING JET APPEARS WILL STEER ANY DEEPER MOISTURE FURTHER EAST LEAVING THE CWA WITH SHALLOW AND MODIFIED MOISTURE. DESPITE GOOD HEATING AND INCREASING LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG ADVANCING DRYLINE IN CENTRAL KANSAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...DOES NOT APPEAR THAT CAP WILL BE BROKEN AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT FCST DRY THROUGH THE DAY. WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NORTHERN CWA TO THE MID 60S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA AS DRYSLOT IN STRATOCU DECK TRIES TO ADVANCE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THINNING LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND WARMEST LOW LEVEL TEMPS. AS SFC LOW MOVES INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AREA OF INCREASING SFC CONVERGENCE...SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND GRADUALLY COOLING ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS...WITH A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. THE COLDER AIR APPEARS WILL ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER IN THE NIGHT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. STILL...A POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT NORTHWEST AREAS AND LIGHT RAIN SOUTHEAST...WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER WEDNESDAY AS STRONG CAA AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS MAKE FOR A CLOUDY BLUSTERY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S. BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WILL KEEP FCST DRY ON THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN KEEPING CWA IN SOMEWHAT DRY NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER...CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A SNOW FLURRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. STILL...THE SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP THE AREA FROM ANY SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP...SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THURSDAY AND SATURDAY THE COOLEST. 63 && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ####018000858#### FXUS64 KLZK 160534 AFDLZK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 1134 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009 .AVIATION... SMALL AREA OF LOW CLOUDS /CIGS ARND 3K FT/ WL CONT TO DISSIPATE OVR WRN AR. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PD. HIGH CLOUDS WL GRADUALLY INCRS FM THE W LATE TNGT AND MON. LGT WINDS OVERNIGHT WL SLOLY VEER TO THE E/SE ON MON. /44/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2009/ UPDATE... CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED. SMALL AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAS REMAINED PERSISTENT OVER THE WESTERN ZONES BUT IS GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AS HIGHER PRESSURE MOVES IN. WILL UPDATE THE SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS WITH ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS LEFT IN TACT. 56 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ####018006144#### FXUS61 KRLX 160534 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 1232 AM EST MON FEB 16 2009 .SYNOPSIS... COLDER AIR STICKS AROUND THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY. COLDER AIR AND SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... SOME RETURNS ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT FEW REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION HITTING THE GROUND. THAT BEING SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A VORT MAX TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH...COULD SEE FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AT 18Z...COVERAGE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING OVER SRN KY. COULD STILL NOT RULE OUT A COATING OF SNOW OVER OUR 2 VA COUNTIES THIS EVENING...FROM THE FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THOUGH...STILL APPEARS THE HIGHER POPS AND MORE ACCUMULATION REMAINS FURTHER SE...SAY TOWARD THE NEW RIVER HEADWATERS ONCE UPPER AIR FEATURE MOVES E...THE 850 MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE COLDER 850 NW FLOW. SO AFTER SOME THINNING OF THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NORTH OF THE SRN WAVE...THINKING THOSE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN AND CREEP S. SINCE THIS LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF REMAIN OVER OUR CWA THROUGH MONDAY...THINK FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY...DESPITE THE THIN MOISTURE LAYER. HAVE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DISSOLVE BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EXTREME W. THE TEMPERATURES WE HAD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND PRESIDENTS DAY LOOK GOOD. ONLY MINOR CHANGES. HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR SNOWSHOE OF 13 DEGS ON MONDAY. ELSEWHERE...DESPITE CLOUDS...COULD NOT GO AS LOW AS MUCH OF THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FOR FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE CLEAR THINGS FIRST THING MON EVE...ONLY TO YIELD TO HIGH CLOUDS BEFORE DAWN AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W. THIS WILL BRING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUD TUE THAT WILL LOWER AND THICKEN TUE NT AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE PASSES E OF THE AREA TUE EVE. ISENTROPIC LIFT / WARM ADVECTION ENSUE OVERNIGHT BUT DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD PRECLUDE PRECIP UNTIL LATE AT NT / JUST BEFORE DAWN. RADIATIVE COOLING IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY ON AND H85 TEMPERATURES STILL NEAR ZERO AND NOT SATURATED 12Z WED IN THAT AREA SPELL POSSIBILITY FOR SLEET AND / OR FREEZING RAIN THERE AT THE START. WITH AMOUNTS SMALL AND POPS IN LOW CHANCE RANGE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HWO MENTION AT THIS POINT. CONTINUE WARM THETA E ADVECTION SPELLS RAIN WED. BOUGHT HPC GUIDANCE OF UP TO A HALF AN INCH QPF. DRY SLOT MAY ARRIVE FROM THE SW BEFORE THE DAY IS OUT. GFS IS QUICKER AND MORE PRONOUNCED WITH INSTABILITY THAN THE NAM12 RAISING THE POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER. TWO DIFFERENCES THAT STAND OUT BETWEEN THE SYSTEM THIS WED VERSUS THAT FROM LAST WED ARE THAT THE BEST FORCING IS SOMEWHAT SEPARATED FROM THE FRONT...AND MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SUNSHINE. LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. ON TEMPERATURES...PREV SHIFT TOOK LOWS DOWN FOR MON NT AND THEY ARE NOW BELOW THE NUMBERS. WITH RADIATIVE COOLING BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE...OPTED TO GIVE IT A CHANCE FOR NOW. LOWERED HIGHS TUE A BIT AS AS THE NEW NUMBERS WERE LOWER...MUCH LOWER IN SOME CASES IN THE RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS. THE COLDER TREND CONTINUES TUE NT WHICH IS WHAT BRINGS ABOUT THE QUESTION FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE WED MRNG. USED A BLEND OF THE NEW MET AND THE PREV FORECAST TO LOWER LOWS AS THE MAV WAS LOWER STILL AND HAVE LOWS OCCURRING AROUND MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES RISING TOWARD DAWN. HIGHS WED NEEDED ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS A BIT. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... INCREASED POPS WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY PER MODELS GOOD CONTINUITY ON LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF SHOW SIMILAR QPF AND TEMPERATURES TIMING. ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED WED EVENING...AROUND 03Z THURSDAY WITH STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. PCPN SHOULD REMAIN LIQUID WED NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO SNOW DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...NORTHERN WV AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING THURSDAY. INCREASE WIND GUSTS PER GFS SHOWING 50KTS AND ECMWF 35KTS AT H850. BUFKIT SHOWING MOMENTUM TRANSFER OUT OF THE GFS OF ABOUT 36KTS ALONG THE FRONT WED NIGHT. GOOD UPSLOPE CONDITIONS SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY UNDER DESCENT NORTHWEST FLOW...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITHING THE CRYSTAL GROWTH LAYER. USED A MIX OF HPC AND GMOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND. ADJUSTED CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...EXITING GRADUALLY EXITING THE PCPN ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH IT STILL FAR OUT...THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT IT POSES NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE MOUNTAINS. VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. AS MOISTURE THINS DURING THE DAY...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 06Z TUESDAY/... IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IFR MAY LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/ARJ NEAR TERM...KTB/26 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...RPY ####018006827#### FXUS61 KRNK 160534 AFDRNK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1234 AM EST MON FEB 16 2009 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS VIRGINIA TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND WEST ON MONDAY...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... SHORT WAVE SHOWING UP BETTER ON WATER VAPOR LOOP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SREF AND LOCAL WRK STILL HAVE THE SHORT WAVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION BY 09Z. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERING DURING THE EVENING AND FINALLY BEGAN AT BLUEFIELD...BOONE AND WEST JEFFERSON AROUND 02Z. HAVE ADJUSTED THE PROBABILITY OF SNOW TO FIT THE 02-09Z WINDOW. ALSO EXPANDED THE CHANCE PROBABILITY OF SNOW INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. NO CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE HOLD WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING OF THE SKY AND INFLUX OF COLDER DRYER AIR COMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH 20S OUT EAST. WITH RESIDUAL SNOW PACK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY RADIATE DOWN TO AROUND 10F. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS TOUR OF THE EAST COAST WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA WITH WARM AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF AND COOL INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE EAST. TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND WITH THE GULF OPEN...CONTINUING WARM MOIST AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. JET DYNAMICS INCREASE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COULD BRING RAIN IN PRIOR TO SUNRISE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP P-TYPE AS RAIN BUT THERE ARE CONCERNS THAT EVENING CLEARING COULD ALLOW MOUNTAIN VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING. ALONG WITH EVENING RADIATIONAL COOLING...EVAPORATE COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP AND CREATE POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN SOME MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. TIMING HAS BEEN AN ISSUE...PARTICULARLY WITH THE GFS...FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE NAM IS HOLDING OFF RAIN UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH TIMING BEING AN ISSUE AND AIR MASS IS RELATIVE DRY...WILL ONLY HAVE 20/30 POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. PARENT LOW TO TRACK FROM THE MID WEST TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS INDICATING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF THE DAY. TIMING ISSUES REOCCUR WEDNESDAY EVENING TO END THE EVENT. BULK OF MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT BUT THE COLD FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BUT THE TRAILING DEW POINT FRONT MAY LAG BEHIND...LEAVE SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE AREA...PARTICULARLY THE MOUNTAINS. TOWARDS SUNRISE THURSDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALONG WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... TROUGHINESS IN THE EAST WILL DEFINE OUR WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD....BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND THE CHANCE FOR THE PROVERBIAL SNOW SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS. THE 1ST OF THESE IS THURSDAY...AS THE SFC FRONT RACES TO THE EAST COAST BY 12Z THU. THE UPPER LOW WILL DIG INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL APPS. THE BEST THREAT OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN THE WESTERN SLOPES FROM GREENBRIER TO TAZEWELL VA...WHERE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE INSERTED. SNOW SHOWERS COVERAGE EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAL RANGE. ATTM...TIMING OF FRONT WILL LEAD TO FALLING TEMPS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT FOR NOW AM GOING TO LEAVE AS THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL START TO WANE EAST OF THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS CONTINUING OVER THE HIGHER SLOPES OF SE WV. A CLIPPER WILL BE FOLLOWING THE 1ST SYSTEM RATHER QUICKLY AND SHOULD IMPACT OUR WEATHER BY SAT. IN BETWEEN SHOULD SEE NORMAL MID-LATE FEB WEATHER. NEXT CLIPPER SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY WITH MAIN SFC LOW WELL NORTH ACROSS THE LAKES...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. WILL SEE MORE SHOWERY TYPE COVERAGE DURING THE DAY...WITH LESS SNOW SHOWERS SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY AND THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY. THE NEW 12Z ECMWF HOWEVER DOES SHOW A MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWARD TRACK...BUT NOT FAVORED OVERALL AS MOST MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM IN A NORTHERN TRACK...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... CHECK AIRMETS AND SIGMETS FOR ICING...TURBULENCE AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TODAY. PATCHES OF SNOW WILL HINDER AVIATION OPERATIONS THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KBLF...KROA AND KLWB. LOWER CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NC/VA BORDER FROM THE NC MTNS INTO THE FOOTHILLS...KGEV/KUKF AREA...WITH A BAND OF SNOW. HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CIGS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER AGAIN AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .EQUIPMENT... THE HINTON WV NOAA WEATHER RADIO IS WORKING IN A DEGRADED MODE... 300 WATTS AS OPPOSED TO 1000 WATTS. THE COMMERCIAL POWER IS OUT DUE TO THE WIND DAMAGE IN THE AREA. IN THE MEAN TIME WE ARE RUNNING OFF OF A GENERATOR...BUT AT A REDUCED POWER. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ015. NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ001>003-018-019. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...AMS SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...KK EQUIPMENT...