Shootout-89 and Shootout-91 were two projects to test the ability of expert systems to predict severe weather in Oklahoma. The Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) conducted these experiments in, respectively, 1989 and 1991, using programs developed by various groups. Based on input given by FSL researchers, each program estimated the relative probability that ... the day's weather would be "nil", "significant", or "severe". (Before the experiment, the FSL researchers invented lists of criteria defining "nil", "significant", and severe" weather. For instance, the day's weather would be considered "severe" if hail larger than 3/4 inch in diameter was reported. The day's weather would be considered "significant" if none of the criteria for "severe" weather were met, but hail between 1/4 inch and 3/4 inch was reported. The day's weather would be considered "nil" if none of the criteria for either "severe" or "significant" were met.) The FSL researchers compared the performances of the expert systems against each other and against human forecasters.
The data saved from the Shootout experiments include the input to and output from each of the programs, and for the 1991 experiment, verification data describing the weather on each days of the experiment. Geographic Coverage
Name:
PETER
A.
MANDICS Email:
mandics at fsl.noaa.gov
Contact Address:
NOAA/ERL Forecast Systems Laboratory
Facility Division
325 Broadway, R/E/FS2 City:
Boulder
Province or State:
CO
Postal Code:
80303-3328
Country:
USA
Personnel
WILLIAM
MONINGER Role:
TECHNICAL CONTACT
Phone:
303-497-6435
Fax:
303-497-3329
Email:
MONINGER at FSL.NOAA.GOV.
Contact Address:
NOAA, Forecast Systems Laboratory
R/E/FS1
325 Broadway City:
Boulder
Province or State:
CO
Postal Code:
80303
Country:
USA
Links
