PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  WASHINGTON D.C.
3 PM EDT THURSDAY MAY 16 2002

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUNE 2002
                                                                               .
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS REMAINED BETWEEN O.5 C AN 1.0 C ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 
CENTRAL PACIFIC.  WATER TEMPERATURES RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE EXTREME 
EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. MOST ATMOSPHERIC INDICES INDICATE NEAR-NEUTRAL 
CONDITIONS.  HOWEVER - COUPLED MODEL AND STATISTICAL PREDICTIONS CONTINUE TO 
INDICATE THAT A WEAK OR MODERATE EL NINO WILL DEVELOP BY THE END OF 2002.
WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PREDICTABLE IMPACT FROM THIS DEVELOPING WARM EPISODE ON 
U.S. WEATHER AND CLIMATE DURING JUNE 2002.

TRENDS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE ARE STRONG IN THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE 
NATION.  CCA SUGGESTS WARMTH IN THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST.  THE CONSTRUCTED ANALOG 
ON SOIL MOISTURE(CAS) TEMPERATURE TOOL INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES AND COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS 
OVER MOST OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR WESTERN STATES.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED OVER ALL THE SOUTHWEST EXCEPT FOR THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WHERE BELOW NORMAL SSTS OPPOSE THE INDICATIONS FOR RELATIVE
WARMTH FROM THE OTHER TOOLS - BUT THE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NORTHWEST
HAS BEEN WEAKENED AND SHRUNK DUE TO THE INDICATIONS FOR BELOW NORMAL FROM CAS. 
WARMTH IN THE SOUTHEAST IS FROM OCN AND CAS - WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
DRAWN IN AREAS WHERE THESE TOOLS ARE IN STRONGEST AGREEMENT.  CL IS PREDICTED
OVER ALASKA DUE TO CONFLICTING INDICATIONS AMONG THE TOOLS.

PERSISTENT ABNORMALLY DRY SOILS CURRENTLY EXIST IN THE SOUTHWEST AND ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST.  THESE ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE WARM SEASON - 
ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THE EAST COAST DROUGHT HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING RECENT RELIEF - 
ESPECIALLY NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES.  THE CAS 
PRECIPITATION TOOL INDICATES THAT DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO 
PERSIST DURING JUNE ONLY OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL GULF STATES - 
BUT OCN FAVORS DROUGHT FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  GIVEN THE 
CONFLICTING INDICATIONS CL IS PREDICTED FOR BOTH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC-SOUTHEAST 
AND THE GULF COAST STATES.
                                                                               .
A TILT IN THE ODDS TOWARDS DRIER THAN NORMAL IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
IS PREDICTED BASED ON INDICATES FROM CAS.  SIMILARLY DRIER THAN NORMAL 
CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED FOR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS - AS INDICATED BY 
CAS. VERY WET SOILS IN THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS ARE THE BASIS 
FOR PREDICTING ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THAT REGION.

FORECASTER: V. KOUSKY

NOTE - THIS CLIMATE OUTLOOK IS INTENDED FOR USE ONLY PRIOR TO THE START
OF THE VALID PERIOD.  WITHIN THE VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND
MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.
  
NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD-TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED 
THURSDAY JUNE 13 2002.
  
NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE 
WITH THE MAY 17 2001 FORECAST RELEASE.

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