AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 239 PM MDT THU AUG 10 2006 .SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY) SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS PRECIP CHANCES. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE ATTM...WITH GENERALLY FAST ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DESERT SW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATING TAIL END OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO ATTM. AT THE SFC...A WEAK TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR A SPRINGFIELD TO GARDEN CITY KANSAS LINE WITH 1-2MB 3HRLY PRESSURE RISES ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SYSTEM BEING REALIZED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS ATTM. TONIGHT...A DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE PASSING NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS SYSTEM...ALLOWING FOR THE CURRENT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL AND SW MTS TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. WITH SOME CU FORMING ALONG SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS ATTM...ALONG WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID 50S PRODUCING CAPES BETWEEN 500-1000...HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORM BEING GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. POPS TO BE SHORT LIVED ON THE PLAINS AS WELL...WITH MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WITH DEW PTS IN THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S ATTM. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE...AND DECREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...HAVE GONE AT OR BELOW THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. FRIDAY...WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION AS NEXT PAC NW SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...WITH THE CURRENT MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA FILTERING INTO EASTERN UTAH AND EXTREME WESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE SOLAR HEATING THROUGH THE MORNING...ALONG SOME INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSES IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...SHOULD SEE SOME CU BUILDING ACROSS THE MTS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND HAVE KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN TACT FOR MAINLY THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WEAK SFC GRADIENT...WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. -MW .LONG TERM... (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDDAY) ...QUITE A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND... METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES STILL PAINTING A WET PICTURE FOR OUR REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND. BOTH WRF AND GFS SHOWING BOUNDARY STRUNG OUT NE-SW ACROSS PLAINS. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE OVER REGION AT SAME TIME AND I EXPECT A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BE EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. WE MAY EVEN SEE A SVR STORM OR TWO AS CAPES WILL BE IN THE 1.0-1.5 J/KG CATEGORY AND SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE KEPT/INCREASED POPS FOR PLAINS AND STARTED PRECIP EARLIER IN THE DAY...AND KEPT IT GOING LATER INTO THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PLAINS. INTO NEXT WEEK...GFS STILL SHOWING IT WILL BE ON THE MOIST SIDE AS MONSOON STREAM STILL OVER THE REGION. LIKEWISE...SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE POPS GRIDDS...AND LEFT THE SCTD POPS IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL START TRENDING DOWN A BIT WITH THE COOLER AND WETTER WX OVER THE REGION. FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE INCREASING MSTR AND BOUNDARY OVER REGION. \/HODANISH && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 23/34 co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 300 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006 .DISCUSSION FOR MORNING GRIDS/ZONES... 300 PM CDT WITH ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER MUCH OF THE SHIFT...NOT A LOT OF TIME TO POUR OVER THE GUIDANCE. THUS...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE WAS REQUIRED TO THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. HAVE ONLY TWEAKED THE PCPN/POPS FOR THE NEXT 24HRS TO REFLECT A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING AND PATH OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW. THE 12Z GFS RUN IS CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AGAIN SO HAS LARGELY BEEN DISCARDED FOR THE SHORT TERM...BUT THE NAM/WFF SEEMS TO AT LEAST HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON 2 SGFNT SHORT WAVES WHICH WILL IMPACT THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. ONE SHORT WAVE...WELL INITIALIZED BY THE NAM AND SEEN IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER MINNESOTA WILL TRACK SEWD WHILE ANOTHER IS OVER IOWA. THESE 2 WAVES...PARTICULARLY THE SRN MOST WAVE WILL KEEP PCPN CHANCES OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...AND HAVE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE NRN PORTIONS WILL BE MORE REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER DYNAMICS...BUT CONTINUED SCT SHRA ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. BUT SINCE THE AIRMASS IS WELL WORKED OVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH THUNDER...BUT HAVE NOT REMOVED TS FROM THE GRIDS GIVEN RELATIVELY DECENT UPPER DYNAMICS. FOR THE LONGER TERM...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE FORM OF A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD QUICKLY SHUT OFF ANY PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY... THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AND A SLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP...AND TEMPS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE LEVELS. BY MONDAY...AN UPPER TROF AND ASSOCIATED SFC FNT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SH/TSRA. KREIN && .AVIATION DISCUSSION REGARDING 18Z TAFS... 105 PM CDT MAIN AVIATION FOCUS ON CIG/VIS TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT...AS WELL AS LINGERING PRECIP POTENTIAL. VIGOROUS MCS PUSHED SOUTH OF TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH LINGERING PATCHY WEAK CONVECTION AND STRATIFORM PCPN ACROSS IA/NRN IL/NRN IND EARLY THIS AFTN. PROFILER/WATER VAPOR DATA INDICATE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MN/IA...WHICH CONTINUES TO FORCE NEW SHRA DEVELOPMENT IN VERY MOIST LLVL AIRMASS ACROSS FCST AREA THIS AFTN. NAM/RUC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR MARGINAL FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDER THREAT...SO HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO -SHRA FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS VARIOUS TERMINALS. APPEARS GREATER TSRA THREAT WILL REMAIN SOUTH INTO CNTRL/SRN IL WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER. MODEL TIME SECTIONS INDICATE CONTINUED WEAK UVM THROUGH TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY TRANSLATES ACROSS FCST AREA. COULD BE ADDITIONAL SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN...BUT GIVEN LACK OF WIDESPREAD PCPN FARTHER UPSTREAM ATTM WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TNGT. WRF/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS INDICATE LLVL MOISTURE LINGERING WITH COOL NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING HIGH RH. STATISTICALLY GUIDANCE SUPPORTING MVFR CIGS THRU THE NGT...THOUGH SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR CIGS BLO 1 KFT. FOR NOW WILL HINT WITH SCT008-010 FT LAYER AND BKN MVFR DECK AND 4-5SM VSBYS IN HZ/BR. DRIER LOW LEVEL ADVECTION FRI AS SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS LAKES SHOULD ALLOW IMPROVEMENT/SCT OF LOWER CIGS AND VSBY. AS FOR WINDS...SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF TAF SITES THRU TNGT...AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS TO MAINTAIN PERIOD OF NELY FLOW WITH FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME GUSTINESS ESPECIALLY FRI IN 12-18KT RANGE. RATZER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LM...NONE. && $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 105 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006 .DISCUSSION FOR MORNING GRIDS/ZONES... 430 AM CDT WITH MODELS NOT VERIFYING ESPECIALLY WELL IN SHORT TERM AM RELYING MORE ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS FOR DETAILS OF TODAY/S FORECAST...AND MODEL OUTPUT FOR SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE. S/WV THAT LIFTED NEWRD FM CO WED HAS IGNITED LARGE TSRA CLUSTER IN ERN NEB...WHILE INCREASED SPEED CONVERGENCE AT NOSE OF LLVL JET FORCING SCT TSRA DVLPMNT INTO E CNTRL IA AND NRN IL TO THE N OF THE SFC. WHILE TYPICAL DIURNAL DEC IN ACTIVITY ANTICIPATED AFT SUNRISE...BAROCLINIC ZONE SHUD REMAIN ACTIVE WITH SIG CAPE IN PLACE ACROSS APPROX S HALF OF CWA WHERE SFC DWPTS ALREADY IN LO AND MID 70S. EXPECT RENEWED TSRA DVLPMNT OVR ALL BUT FAR NERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS S/WV TURNS SEWRD AND DROPS ACROSS NW AND E CNTRL IL LATER TODAY. CONTD CHC FOR TSRA AS S/WV OVR ND TRACKS SEWRD ACROSS UPR MIDWEST. FOR FRI SFC BNDRY FCST TO BE NR LWR OH VALLEY AND ACROSS SRN IL AND ALLOWING ENUF DRYING I ANTICYCLONIC LLVL FLO TO PREVENT ANY PCPN EVEN THO ANOTHER S/WV FCST TO TRAVERSE REGION DURG THE DAY. TREND OF UPPER PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TROF DEEPENS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND FRI WHILE RDG BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND S CENTRAL CANADA AS TROF MOVES INTO B.C. AND PAC NW COAST. THIS ALLOWS SFC HI PRES RDG TO BUILD S FROM ONTARIO ACROSS THE GRTLKS AND MIDWEST FRI AND SAT. WESTERN UPR TROF EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE UPR MIDWEST AND WERSTERN GRTLKS DURG MON AND MON NITE WITH ASSOCIATED CDFNT DROPPING SEWRD THRU REGION WITH RETURN OF THREAT OF TSRA. TRS && .AVIATION DISCUSSION REGARDING 18Z TAFS... 105 PM CDT MAIN AVIATION FOCUS ON CIG/VIS TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT...AS WELL AS LINGERING PRECIP POTENTIAL. VIGOROUS MCS PUSHED SOUTH OF TERMINALS THIS MORNING...WITH LINGERING PATCHY WEAK CONVECTION AND STRATIFORM PCPN ACROSS IA/NRN IL/NRN IND EARLY THIS AFTN. PROFILER/WATER VAPOR DATA INDICATE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS MN/IA...WHICH CONTINUES TO FORCE NEW SHRA DEVELOPMENT IN VERY MOIST LLVL AIRMASS ACROSS FCST AREA THIS AFTN. NAM/RUC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPEAR MARGINAL FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDER THREAT...SO HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO -SHRA FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS VARIOUS TERMINALS. APPEARS GREATER TSRA THREAT WILL REMAIN SOUTH INTO CNTRL/SRN IL WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER. MODEL TIME SECTIONS INDICATE CONTINUED WEAK UVM THROUGH TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLOWLY TRANSLATES ACROSS FCST AREA. COULD BE ADDITIONAL SPOTTY LIGHT PCPN...BUT GIVEN LACK OF WIDESPREAD PCPN FARTHER UPSTREAM ATTM WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TNGT. WRF/NAM FCST SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS INDICATE LLVL MOISTURE LINGERING WITH COOL NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW MAINTAINING HIGH RH. STATISTICALLY GUIDANCE SUPPORTING MVFR CIGS THRU THE NGT...THOUGH SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR CIGS BLO 1 KFT. FOR NOW WILL HINT WITH SCT008-010 FT LAYER AND BKN MVFR DECK AND 4-5SM VSBYS IN HZ/BR. DRIER LOW LEVEL ADVECTION FRI AS SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS LAKES SHOULD ALLOW IMPROVEMENT/SCT OF LOWER CIGS AND VSBY. AS FOR WINDS...SFC LOW PRESSURE PASSING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF TAF SITES THRU TNGT...AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO. THIS TO MAINTAIN PERIOD OF NELY FLOW WITH FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME GUSTINESS ESPECIALLY FRI IN 12-18KT RANGE. RATZER && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IL...NONE. .IN...NONE. .LM...NONE. && $$ il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1120 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006 .DISCUSSION... MCV NOW EXITING THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE DROPPING PRECIP MOST AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH RUC40 HAS REDEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON...CURRENT FEELING IS THAT THE AIRMASS IS TOO WORKED OVER TO RECOVER THAT QUICKLY TODAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHERN AREAS MAY STILL SEE SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE BORDER THOUGH NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH. CURRENTLY TRACKING NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE IN COLORADO ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM AND WITH CURRENT SPEED...SHOULD REACH WESTERN IA BY 0430Z. THUS...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE NEXT ROUND BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING AS DYNAMICS INCREASE AT THAT TIME. HIGHS NOT CHANGED FOR THE DAY AS CLOUD COVER BREAKING UP ATTM. SOME SLIGHT CONCERNS ABOUT ST NORTHWEST...BUT ELSEWHERE AM EXPECTING DECENT...BUT FILTERED SUNSHINE ON THE WAY FOR REST OF DAY./REV .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ACTIVE WEATHER SO WILL KEEP DISCUSSION SHORT. WATCH JUST ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WC COUNTIES THRU 7 AM. MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS ROLLING OUT OF ERN NE WL BE WINDS. STORMS HAVE ALSO FIRED ALONG HWY 20 CORRIDOR IN REGION OF MU CAPE MAX AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. COULD SEE SOME LARGE HAIL EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING...HAVE EMPHASIZED POPS FOR SOUTHERN HALF. THE NAM IS STRONGLY SUGGESTING AN MCS TO ROLL OVER SRN IA WITH WIND/HEAVY RAIN THREAT. HAVE ADDED SLT CHC POPS IN FAR E ON FRI TO ACCT FOR NAM SOLUTION WHICH LINGERS AN INVERTED TROF AND PRECIP ACRS MUCH OF CWA. THE GFS IS VIRTUALLY DRY. DAY SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE. IN THE LATER PERIODS...STILL FOLLOWING CONSISTENT ECMWF TIMING FOR PRECIP LATE SAT AND SUN. NO CHANGES DAYS 4-7. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ KINNEY ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 228 PM MDT THU AUG 10 2006 .DISCUSSION...16Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA...MAKING IDENTIFYING SFC FEATURES RATHER DIFFICULT. SFC TROUGH STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. COLD FRONT WAS ALSO NOTED ENTERING THE WESTERN CWA...ALTHOUGH WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT. WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS INDICATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. RUC TROP PRESSURE ANALYSIS INDICATES A BIT STRONGER TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO WHICH IS LINING UP WELL WITH WEAK CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. BOTH MODELS INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH GENERALLY SMALL ERRORS AROUND THE CWA. NAM DID INITIALIZE A BIT STRONGER WITH H5 TROUGH OVER COLORADO...AND CURRENT WV IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM IN THE NEAR PERIODS. TONIGHT...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES EARLY IN THE EVENING. 12Z NAM...ALONG WITH DISTANCE SPEED ESTIMATES WOULD SUGGEST LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE EXITING THE CWA AROUND 00Z. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS...APPARENT GRAVITY WAVE SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS NEBRASKA ATTM...LEADING TO INCREASED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND MAY SLOW DOWN TIMING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL LET CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEFORE MAKING A FINAL DESCSION...BUT REGARDLESS PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE ALSO VERY WARM ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH MAY FURTHER INHIBIT CONVECTION. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC BRINGING INCREASING TD'S TO THE AREA AND CANT RULE OUT FOG FORMATION IN THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW...SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE IN FULL EFFECT ACROSS THE CWA LEADING TO PLENTY OF WARMING AND DRYING ALOFT. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL WARM TO NEAR CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND WILL HAVE A WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...STRONG CAP SHOULD BE IN PLACE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION. SATURDAY...H5 RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT...TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP TO FOCUS SFC CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CWA PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THINGS LOOK TO BE COMING TOGETHER PRETTY WELL FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO WILL INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN CWA. IN THE EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH STILL ABOUT 12 HOURS DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF...BUT GENERAL TREND IS FASTER. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO GOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS EVERYTHING LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. FOR WX...WITH MODELS BEGINNING TO LOCK INTO FRONTAL TIMING UPPED POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO FRONT WILL NOT GET TO FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA BEFORE LIFTING NORTH AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT...AND SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION ON MONDAY. AFTER THAT...H5 TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES PLACING CWA IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOISTURE FIELDS INDICATE FLOW ALOFT WONT BE TOO DRY...SO ADDED SOME LOW AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS THROUGH MID WEEK. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ JRM ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 330 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 .DISCUSSION... OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS OVER IA THIS MORNING IS NOW KICKING UP SOME VERY STRONG STORMS OVER SE IN. TOPS ON RADAR INDICATING OVER 60K WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF WEAKENING. TRACK OF STORMS WILL TAKE IT ACROSS ERN KY WITH IMPACT TO OCCUR AROUND 5 PM. WILL HAVE LIKELY POP TONIGHT AND FRI WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE FOLLOWING S/WV NOW OVER WRN IA. WAA HAS BOOSTED OUR HIGH TEMPS TODAY INTO THE UPPER 80S N AND LOWER 90S SW. CLOUD COVER ON FRI WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY AND WILL ONLY FCST LOWER/MID 80S FOR FRI. HAVE GONE ABOVE MAV MOS FOR MOST OTHER TEMPS AS DRY AIR WILL KEEP DRY WX IN AREA AND DRY WX WILL HEAT UP BETTER. FOG IN VALLEYS AND RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TO MIN TEMPS LIKELY. WEEKEND WX WILL FEATURE NO PCPN FROM SAT THRU MON AND TEMPS STARTING NEAR 80 AND BUILDING INTO THE UPPER 80S. NEXT SERIES OF S/WVS TO PUSH INTO ERN KY MON NITE THRU WED WITH CHC PCPN TO RETURN TO FCST AND THEN AS HIGH PRESS SHIFTS EAST TO NEW ENG NE FLOW WILL KEEP DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN FCST. HAVE FOLLOWED GFS FOR THE LONG TERM FCST. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 1157 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 UPDATED THE ZONE PACKAGE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT MOST RECENT TRENDS CONCERNING THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. IR SAT LOOPS SHOWING THIS SYSTEM REDEVELOPING TO THE EAST. CAN ALSO SEE DECENT COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL RUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA. RUC ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A TONGUE OF INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR NOSING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...AT LEAST IN PART DUE TO THE LARGE AREA OF CLEARING TO OUR WEST. SINCE INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS REMNANTS OF THE MCS PUSHES INTO THE AREA. SPC HAS ALSO PLACED EASTERN KENTUCKY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH PWS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...THREAT IS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT WITH STEERING WINDS PICKING UP CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY. UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE ALREADY OUT. 859 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WHILE THERE ARE STILL A FEW SPOTS WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG...COVERAGE IS NO LONGER EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY EXTENSION TO THE ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION OF PATCHY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE ZONES UNTIL MID MORNING UPDATE WHEN FOG WILL HAVE BURNED OFF. UPDATE OUT SOON. 302 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS...SO WENT WITH GFS SOLUTION ONCE AGAIN FOR CONSISTENCY. STATIONARY FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST AFTER SUNRISE. GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MET AND FWC POPS SEEMED A BIT LOW...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AT SURFACE. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT THE MAV MOS HAS. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE FOR FRIDAY...AS A FRONTAL WAVE FORMS AND MOVES EASTWARD ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT. WENT WELL ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING GOOD LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS FRONTAL WAVE TRAVERSES REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE ALREADY. A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE BASED UPON A BLEND OF MAV MOS AND MRF ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS. OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. WINDS WERE ALSO TWEAKED FOR FRIDAY...TO BETTER REFLECT PASSAGE OF WAVE ALONG STALLED/SLOW MOVING FRONT...WHICH WILL POSSIBLY BE DRAPED ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE AND WERE UNCHANGED. WEATHER GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED UPON CHANGES MADE TO POP FORECAST. FOG HAS ALSO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG FORMATION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO MADE SURE TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE 6-13Z TIME FRAME THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 1040 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2006 PRECIP HAS ENDED AND POPS CAN BE LOWERED. HOWEVER...PREFER NOT TO TAKE IT BELOW CHANCE LEVEL. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW OFF THE SURFACE TONIGHT PROVIDING WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPINGING ON THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEFT OVER THE REGION. CONCERNED THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/DESTABILIZATION DUE TO THIS TO ALLOW SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HAVE USED 30 PERCENT POP AREA WIDE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DUSTY ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1157 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 .DISCUSSION... UPDATED THE ZONE PACKAGE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT MOST RECENT TRENDS CONCERNING THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. IR SAT LOOPS SHOWING THIS SYSTEM REDEVELOPING TO THE EAST. CAN ALSO SEE DECENT COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL RUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA. RUC ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A TONGUE OF INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR NOSING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...AT LEAST IN PART DUE TO THE LARGE AREA OF CLEARING TO OUR WEST. SINCE INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS REMNANTS OF THE MCS PUSHES INTO THE AREA. SPC HAS ALSO PLACED EASTERN KENTUCKY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH PWS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...THREAT IS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT WITH STEERING WINDS PICKING UP CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY. UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE ALREADY OUT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 859 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WHILE THERE ARE STILL A FEW SPOTS WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG...COVERAGE IS NO LONGER EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY EXTENSION TO THE ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION OF PATCHY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE ZONES UNTIL MID MORNING UPDATE WHEN FOG WILL HAVE BURNED OFF. UPDATE OUT SOON. 302 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS...SO WENT WITH GFS SOLUTION ONCE AGAIN FOR CONSISTENCY. STATIONARY FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST AFTER SUNRISE. GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MET AND FWC POPS SEEMED A BIT LOW...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AT SURFACE. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT THE MAV MOS HAS. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE FOR FRIDAY...AS A FRONTAL WAVE FORMS AND MOVES EASTWARD ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT. WENT WELL ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING GOOD LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS FRONTAL WAVE TRAVERSES REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE ALREADY. A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE BASED UPON A BLEND OF MAV MOS AND MRF ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS. OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. WINDS WERE ALSO TWEAKED FOR FRIDAY...TO BETTER REFLECT PASSAGE OF WAVE ALONG STALLED/SLOW MOVING FRONT...WHICH WILL POSSIBLY BE DRAPED ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE AND WERE UNCHANGED. WEATHER GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED UPON CHANGES MADE TO POP FORECAST. FOG HAS ALSO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG FORMATION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO MADE SURE TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE 6-13Z TIME FRAME THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 1040 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2006 PRECIP HAS ENDED AND POPS CAN BE LOWERED. HOWEVER...PREFER NOT TO TAKE IT BELOW CHANCE LEVEL. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW OFF THE SURFACE TONIGHT PROVIDING WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPINGING ON THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEFT OVER THE REGION. CONCERNED THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/DESTABILIZATION DUE TO THIS TO ALLOW SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HAVE USED 30 PERCENT POP AREA WIDE. 331 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2006 OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM MCS THAT CRUISED ACROSS SRN IN/CNTRL KY HAS FINALLY MADE IT INTO ERN KY. PROGRESSION IS FAST ENUF TO KEEP PCPN TOTALS TO 1/2 IN OR LESS MOST PLACES AND NOWCASTING THE MVMT. CONCERN THAT THE OUTFLOW WILL SLOW WHEN IT HITS THE HIER TERRAIN OF OUR ERN MTNS. ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF MCS IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO CNTRL IND. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN THE FCST WITH THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL PCPN FROM FOLLOW ON SYSTEMS. SFC CHART HAS WRM FNT FRM STL TO BNA TO ATL. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH THE FNT PUSHES DWPTS INTO THE 70S. MODELS IN DISARRAY AND HAVE FOLLOWED THE ECMWF FOR BEST CONSISTENCY. GFS MIRRORS THE ECMWF FAIRLY WELL THIS RUN AND KEEPS THE E/W FNT ACROSS THE OH VLY THRU FRI WHEN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER S/WV DROPS OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES TO PUSH IT FAR ENUF SOUTH TO ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR IN FOR THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FNT RETURNS TO AREA AND BRINGS THE CHC OF PCPN WITH IT. TEMPS WILL RUN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. EXPECT FOG EACH MORNING AND SHOULD SEE SOME EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ RAY ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 859 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 .DISCUSSION... WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WHILE THERE ARE STILL A FEW SPOTS WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG...COVERAGE IS NO LONGER EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY EXTENSION TO THE ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION OF PATCHY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE ZONES UNTIL MID MORNING UPDATE WHEN FOG WILL HAVE BURNED OFF. UPDATE OUT SOON. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 302 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS...SO WENT WITH GFS SOLUTION ONCE AGAIN FOR CONSISTENCY. STATIONARY FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST AFTER SUNRISE. GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MET AND FWC POPS SEEMED A BIT LOW...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AT SURFACE. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT THE MAV MOS HAS. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE FOR FRIDAY...AS A FRONTAL WAVE FORMS AND MOVES EASTWARD ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONT. WENT WELL ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING GOOD LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AS FRONTAL WAVE TRAVERSES REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE ALREADY. A FEW TWEAKS WERE MADE BASED UPON A BLEND OF MAV MOS AND MRF ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS. OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. WINDS WERE ALSO TWEAKED FOR FRIDAY...TO BETTER REFLECT PASSAGE OF WAVE ALONG STALLED/SLOW MOVING FRONT...WHICH WILL POSSIBLY BE DRAPED ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO IN GOOD SHAPE AND WERE UNCHANGED. WEATHER GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED UPON CHANGES MADE TO POP FORECAST. FOG HAS ALSO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG FORMATION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO MADE SURE TO INCLUDE FOG IN THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE 6-13Z TIME FRAME THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 1040 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2006 PRECIP HAS ENDED AND POPS CAN BE LOWERED. HOWEVER...PREFER NOT TO TAKE IT BELOW CHANCE LEVEL. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW OFF THE SURFACE TONIGHT PROVIDING WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPINGING ON THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEFT OVER THE REGION. CONCERNED THAT THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT/DESTABILIZATION DUE TO THIS TO ALLOW SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HAVE USED 30 PERCENT POP AREA WIDE. 331 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2006 OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM MCS THAT CRUISED ACROSS SRN IN/CNTRL KY HAS FINALLY MADE IT INTO ERN KY. PROGRESSION IS FAST ENUF TO KEEP PCPN TOTALS TO 1/2 IN OR LESS MOST PLACES AND NOWCASTING THE MVMT. CONCERN THAT THE OUTFLOW WILL SLOW WHEN IT HITS THE HIER TERRAIN OF OUR ERN MTNS. ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF MCS IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO CNTRL IND. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN THE FCST WITH THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL PCPN FROM FOLLOW ON SYSTEMS. SFC CHART HAS WRM FNT FRM STL TO BNA TO ATL. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/NORTH THE FNT PUSHES DWPTS INTO THE 70S. MODELS IN DISARRAY AND HAVE FOLLOWED THE ECMWF FOR BEST CONSISTENCY. GFS MIRRORS THE ECMWF FAIRLY WELL THIS RUN AND KEEPS THE E/W FNT ACROSS THE OH VLY THRU FRI WHEN A SLIGHTLY STRONGER S/WV DROPS OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES TO PUSH IT FAR ENUF SOUTH TO ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR IN FOR THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK THE FNT RETURNS TO AREA AND BRINGS THE CHC OF PCPN WITH IT. TEMPS WILL RUN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. EXPECT FOG EACH MORNING AND SHOULD SEE SOME EVEN INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. 956 AM EDT WED AUG 9 2006 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS 850 MB JET FROM TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS IS SUPPORTING THE MCS OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA. WRF AND RUC BOTH SHOW WEAKENING OF THE 850 JET DURING THE DAY...THUS LESS SUPPORT FOR THE MCS. INDEED IR SATELLITE ALREADY SHOWING THAT TOPS ARE WARMING. AT THE SURFACE A FRONT STRETCHES FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO NORTHEAST TN. EVEN WITH THE MCS WEAKENING TREND FEEL THAT BOUNDARIES FROM THIS AND NEARNESS OF FRONT WILL WARRANT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS THIS AFTERNOON. PLAN TO INCREASE POPS 10 TO 20 PERCENT...AND THESE POPS WILL BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS. DENSE FOG IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO LIFT. WILL UPDATE MORNING FORECAST SUITE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ RAY ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 931 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... 18Z GFS AND 23Z RUC IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE H5 TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND THE H85 TROUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AT 00Z. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONCUR WITH THESE TWO MODEL PROJECTIONS. 00Z IAD SOUNDING DEPICTS STRONG DRYING ALOFT BETWEEN H85 AND H5 HAS OCCURRED BETWEEN 12Z THURSDAY AND 00Z FRIDAY. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS APPEARING ON RADAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH SOUTHERN PA AND NORTH-CENTRAL WV AT 00Z. WEAK H5 VORTICITY AXIS ALOFT ABOVE THE COLD FRONT IS SHEARING OUT. COLD FRONT IS LOSING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND MOVING INTO AN ATMOSPHERE THAT HAS BEEN DRYING OUT...SO INCLUDED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE FROPA THROUGH 08Z. FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF CENTRAL VA AFTER AFTER 08Z. DECAYING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO THE WEST MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHWESTERN HIGHLANDS OF THE CWA BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...BUT H85-H3 THICKNESSES SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST. INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN HIGHLANDS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM PA/OH FRIDAY WITH DECENT CAA...AND BELOW NORMAL HIGHS LOOK ON TRACK. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE REGION BY A STRONG H25 JET AHEAD OF A H5 SHORTWAVE ACROSS EASTERN TN/SOUTHERN WV WILL PRODUCE SCT TO BKN HIGH CIRRUS. COMBINATION OF CAA AND LESS INSOLATION WILL RESULT IN HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BETWEEN 80 TO 85. ZONE UPDATE WILL BE SENT WITHIN THE NEXT 15 MINUTES. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LOTS OF CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER OUR CWA AT 18Z...WITH A FEW BREAKS MAKING THEIR WAY TOWARD OUR W/SW CWA. KLWX WSR-88D INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING EAST OF THE BLUE...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS LACKED PRESENCE GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT RELATIVE LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. IF MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN WORK EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD BE ACHIEVED TO SUPPORT GENERAL THUNDER. AT THE VERY LEAST...SOME HEATING WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS PA AND OH. THE RUC...NAM AND GFS ALSO AGREE ON ACTIVITY FOCUSING TOWARD THE DCA/BWI METROS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE GETTING SQUASHED SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL VA LATER TONIGHT. THIS JIVES WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS TOO...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS E/SE AND LOWEST POPS N/NW THROUGH TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL RESIDE TO OUR SOUTH IN SOUTHERN VA...BUT AM LEERY OF POTENTIAL UPSTREAM ACTIVITY (CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR REMNANTS OF??) AFFECTING OUR CWA. THE GFS BRINGS PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS US DRY. SIDED MORE TOWARD THE NAM...ONLY INCLUDING 30 POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OUR CWA. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIPRES BLDG FRI NGT SFC-H8. IN THE MID LVLS /H7-5/...CYCLONIC FLOW IN CNDN MARITIMES WL SLOWLY RLS GRIP. IN COMBO...XPCT MUCH DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FM THE N...WHICH SHUD PUSH QSTNY BNDRY FRTHR S...AND ERODE NRN FRINGE OF CLD DECK. THINK QPF FIELD FM GFS CONTAMINATED BY CNVCTV FEEDBACK...AND WL BE GOING W/ DRY FCST. COLUMN REMAINS DRY /RH AOB 20 PCT/ H8-H4...SO ONCE WE LOSE DIURNAL HTG...IT WL BE REAL TUFF FOR CLDS. WL GO W/ FEW...THERE CUD ALWAYS BE SOME CI SINCE MSTR HIER ABV H4. CNTR OF HIPRES OHD BY SUN. SINCE SOURCE RGN OF AMS CNTRL CNDA...AND BURBS HAD MIN-T IN THE 50S YDA MRNG...SIDED W/ COOLER MAV TEMPS. WL SMOOTH OUT SOME OF THE XTRMS THO... HIPRES AT START OF XTNDD PD /MON/ WL BE SHOVED ASIDE BY CDFNT EMBEDDED IN WLYS. FROPA TUE...W/ SCT SHRA/TSRA. CNDN HIPRES WL POWER BHD SYSTM...FOR CLR-N-DRY CONDS WED-THU. DID HANG ONTO SOME CLDS ACRS THE S WED PENDING SPD OF CDFNT...OTRW SCT CLDS AT MOST. TEMP DIFF AT END OF PD MORE NOTICIBLE AT NGT...DUE TO LWR DEWPTS. AVIATION... SHOWERS HAVE KEPT MVFR OR IFR TYPE VSBYS/CIGS AT MANY TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN SHOWERS THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING...AND THEN AT LEAST SIMILAR VSBY CATS WILL OCCUR IN FOG LATER TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO FORM AND BE A PROBLEM...ALTHOUGH AM NOT AS CONFIDENT ON THIS LOW OF A DECK FORMING ATTM. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL BY 13Z. MARINE... ONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE ALLOWED WINDS TO GUST AOA 18 KT AT TIMES AT SITES ON THE BAY/POTOMAC TODAY. OTHERWISE...10 TO 15 KT WIND HAVE OCCURRED. HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE BEHIND A COLD FROPA WILL LEAD TO SCA WINDS OVER THE BAY BY FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CORE OF THIS SURGE WL BE S OF THE WATERS /MD PORTION OF THE BAY- TDL PTMC/ BY FRI EVE. WL GO W/ STRAIGHT 15 KT...JUST BLO SCA CRIT. WNDS WL SUBSIDE FM THERE FRI NGT AND SAT AS HIPRES BUILDS. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>534 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM... md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 604 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST TO REDUCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. 18Z NMM WRF AND 20Z RUC SHOW THE H5 TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY 22Z...AND RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT CLOUD AND RAIN COVERAGE HAS DECREASED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. NMM WRF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT LAYER OF DRIER AIR BETWEEN H85 AND H5 MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN PA AT 21Z. THE LOBE OF H5 VORTICITY COINCIDENT WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO SHEAR OUT...SO WILL INCLUDE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FROPA...EXCEPT FOR LOW SCATTERED POPS ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND LOWER SOUTHERN MD...WHERE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. UPDATED ZONES SENT OUT AT 555 PM EDT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LOTS OF CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER OUR CWA AT 18Z...WITH A FEW BREAKS MAKING THEIR WAY TOWARD OUR W/SW CWA. KLWX WSR-88D INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING EAST OF THE BLUE...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS LACKED PRESENCE GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT RELATIVE LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. IF MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN WORK EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD BE ACHIEVED TO SUPPORT GENERAL THUNDER. AT THE VERY LEAST...SOME HEATING WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS PA AND OH. THE RUC...NAM AND GFS ALSO AGREE ON ACTIVITY FOCUSING TOWARD THE DCA/BWI METROS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE GETTING SQUASHED SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL VA LATER TONIGHT. THIS JIVES WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS TOO...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS E/SE AND LOWEST POPS N/NW THROUGH TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL RESIDE TO OUR SOUTH IN SOUTHERN VA...BUT AM LEERY OF POTENTIAL UPSTREAM ACTIVITY (CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR REMNANTS OF??) AFFECTING OUR CWA. THE GFS BRINGS PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS US DRY. SIDED MORE TOWARD THE NAM...ONLY INCLUDING 30 POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OUR CWA. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIPRES BLDG FRI NGT SFC-H8. IN THE MID LVLS /H7-5/...CYCLONIC FLOW IN CNDN MARITIMES WL SLOWLY RLS GRIP. IN COMBO...XPCT MUCH DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FM THE N...WHICH SHUD PUSH QSTNY BNDRY FRTHR S...AND ERODE NRN FRINGE OF CLD DECK. THINK QPF FIELD FM GFS CONTAMINATED BY CNVCTV FEEDBACK...AND WL BE GOING W/ DRY FCST. COLUMN REMAINS DRY /RH AOB 20 PCT/ H8-H4...SO ONCE WE LOSE DIURNAL HTG...IT WL BE REAL TUFF FOR CLDS. WL GO W/ FEW...THERE CUD ALWAYS BE SOME CI SINCE MSTR HIER ABV H4. CNTR OF HIPRES OHD BY SUN. SINCE SOURCE RGN OF AMS CNTRL CNDA...AND BURBS HAD MIN-T IN THE 50S YDA MRNG...SIDED W/ COOLER MAV TEMPS. WL SMOOTH OUT SOME OF THE XTRMS THO... HIPRES AT START OF XTNDD PD /MON/ WL BE SHOVED ASIDE BY CDFNT EMBEDDED IN WLYS. FROPA TUE...W/ SCT SHRA/TSRA. CNDN HIPRES WL POWER BHD SYSTM...FOR CLR-N-DRY CONDS WED-THU. DID HANG ONTO SOME CLDS ACRS THE S WED PENDING SPD OF CDFNT...OTRW SCT CLDS AT MOST. TEMP DIFF AT END OF PD MORE NOTICIBLE AT NGT...DUE TO LWR DEWPTS. AVIATION... SHOWERS HAVE KEPT MVFR OR IFR TYPE VSBYS/CIGS AT MANY TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN SHOWERS THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING...AND THEN AT LEAST SIMILAR VSBY CATS WILL OCCUR IN FOG LATER TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO FORM AND BE A PROBLEM...ALTHOUGH AM NOT AS CONFIDENT ON THIS LOW OF A DECK FORMING ATTM. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL BY 13Z. MARINE... ONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE ALLOWED WINDS TO GUST AOA 18 KT AT TIMES AT SITES ON THE BAY/POTOMAC TODAY. OTHERWISE...10 TO 15 KT WIND HAVE OCCURRED. HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE BEHIND A COLD FROPA WILL LEAD TO SCA WINDS OVER THE BAY BY FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CORE OF THIS SURGE WL BE S OF THE WATERS /MD PORTION OF THE BAY- TDL PTMC/ BY FRI EVE. WL GO W/ STRAIGHT 15 KT...JUST BLO SCA CRIT. WNDS WL SUBSIDE FM THERE FRI NGT AND SAT AS HIPRES BUILDS. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>534 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...SMITH md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 300 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED LOTS OF CLOUDS PERSISTING OVER OUR CWA AT 18Z...WITH A FEW BREAKS MAKING THEIR WAY TOWARD OUR W/SW CWA. KLWX WSR-88D INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING EAST OF THE BLUE...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS LACKED PRESENCE GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT RELATIVE LACK OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. IF MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN WORK EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD BE ACHIEVED TO SUPPORT GENERAL THUNDER. AT THE VERY LEAST...SOME HEATING WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS PA AND OH. THE RUC...NAM AND GFS ALSO AGREE ON ACTIVITY FOCUSING TOWARD THE DCA/BWI METROS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE GETTING SQUASHED SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL VA LATER TONIGHT. THIS JIVES WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS TOO...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS E/SE AND LOWEST POPS N/NW THROUGH TONIGHT. LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL RESIDE TO OUR SOUTH IN SOUTHERN VA...BUT AM LEERY OF POTENTIAL UPSTREAM ACTIVITY (CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OR REMNANTS OF??) AFFECTING OUR CWA. THE GFS BRINGS PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS US DRY. SIDED MORE TOWARD THE NAM...ONLY INCLUDING 30 POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF OUR CWA. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... HIPRES BLDG FRI NGT SFC-H8. IN THE MID LVLS /H7-5/...CYCLONIC FLOW IN CNDN MARITIMES WL SLOWLY RLS GRIP. IN COMBO...XPCT MUCH DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN FM THE N...WHICH SHUD PUSH QSTNY BNDRY FRTHR S...AND ERODE NRN FRINGE OF CLD DECK. THINK QPF FIELD FM GFS CONTAMINATED BY CNVCTV FEEDBACK...AND WL BE GOING W/ DRY FCST. COLUMN REMAINS DRY /RH AOB 20 PCT/ H8-H4...SO ONCE WE LOSE DIURNAL HTG...IT WL BE REAL TUFF FOR CLDS. WL GO W/ FEW...THERE CUD ALWAYS BE SOME CI SINCE MSTR HIER ABV H4. CNTR OF HIPRES OHD BY SUN. SINCE SOURCE RGN OF AMS CNTRL CNDA...AND BURBS HAD MIN-T IN THE 50S YDA MRNG...SIDED W/ COOLER MAV TEMPS. WL SMOOTH OUT SOME OF THE XTRMS THO... HIPRES AT START OF XTNDD PD /MON/ WL BE SHOVED ASIDE BY CDFNT EMBEDDED IN WLYS. FROPA TUE...W/ SCT SHRA/TSRA. CNDN HIPRES WL POWER BHD SYSTM...FOR CLR-N-DRY CONDS WED-THU. DID HANG ONTO SOME CLDS ACRS THE S WED PENDING SPD OF CDFNT...OTRW SCT CLDS AT MOST. TEMP DIFF AT END OF PD MORE NOTICIBLE AT NGT...DUE TO LWR DEWPTS. && .AVIATION... SHOWERS HAVE KEPT MVFR OR IFR TYPE VSBYS/CIGS AT MANY TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN SHOWERS THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING...AND THEN AT LEAST SIMILAR VSBY CATS WILL OCCUR IN FOG LATER TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO FORM AND BE A PROBLEM...ALTHOUGH AM NOT AS CONFIDENT ON THIS LOW OF A DECK FORMING ATTM. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL BY 13Z. && .MARINE... ONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE ALLOWED WINDS TO GUST AOA 18 KT AT TIMES AT SITES ON THE BAY/POTOMAC TODAY. OTHERWISE...10 TO 15 KT WIND HAVE OCCURRED. HOWEVER...A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE BEHIND A COLD FROPA WILL LEAD TO SCA WINDS OVER THE BAY BY FRIDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CORE OF THIS SURGE WL BE S OF THE WATERS /MD PORTION OF THE BAY- TDL PTMC/ BY FRI EVE. WL GO W/ STRAIGHT 15 KT...JUST BLO SCA CRIT. WNDS WL SUBSIDE FM THERE FRI NGT AND SAT AS HIPRES BUILDS. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ530>534 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...PELOQUIN LONG TERM...HTS MARINE...PELOQUIN/HTS md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1159 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO PRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER SOUTHERN MD AND THE LOWER POTOMAC/BAY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS...LIGHTER AREAS OF RAIN EXIST BACK TOWARD NORTHWEST MARYLAND. THE MODELS DID NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF RAINFALL. USED RADAR/OBS AND THEIR TRENDS FOR THE EARLIER MORNING UPDATE...AND CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. RAINFALL WAS A PRODUCT OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT...AND AIDED BY A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT...BOTH EFFECTS WHICH WILL WANE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THERES ALSO A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THAT WILL BE COMING TROUGH TONIGHT...AND AM STARTING TO WONDER HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE VERY LEAST...THE RAIN ON RADAR WILL BE AROUND FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...AND WARRANTS HIGH POPS (CAT SE INTO EARLY PM...HIGH CHC ELSEWHERE). IN ADDITION...THE RUC...NAM AND GFS INDICATE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE CONVERGING CLOSE TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. DO BELIEVE THAT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AFTER THE CURRENT PRECIP MOVES AWAY AND A LITTLE BIT OF HEATING OCCURS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ACROSS A LOT OF THE CWA...WHICH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. SHOWERS COULD POP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT THE BEST CHC FOR THUNDER MAY BE ACROSS THE SW AND NE WHERE THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR BREAKS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ALSO...WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER...HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ONE TO TWO CATEGORIES...WHICH STILL MAY NOT BE ENOUGH IN A FEW SPOTS. PRODUCTS OUT SOON... && .AVIATION... SHIELD OF RAIN HAS MOVED AWAY FROM TERMINALS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING. LOW CLOUDS REMAIN AS WELL...AND VSBYS HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOW TO COME UP. SHOULD BE AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR/VFR BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING. COLD FROPA TONIGHT WILL ALSO USHER IN A WIND SHIFT. && .MARINE... A FEW SPOTS HAVE HAD GUSTS ABOVE 18 KT...BUT BELIEVE THAT THEY HAVE BEEN A FUNCTION OF SHORT LIVED/SHORT DURATION CONVECTIVE EFFECTS INSTEAD A LONGER FUSED SCA EVENT. WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH SOUTHERLY FLOW BUT BELIEVE IT WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AND NO FLAGS WILL BE RAISED ATTM. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 828 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE RADAR...AND OBS. ITS RAINING IN A LOT OF PLACES ACROSS OUR CWA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEADING WAVE. HAVE BUMPED MORNING POPS UP TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL IN THESE PLACES. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME... PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... HIGH PRES WILL EASE AWAY AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS AND THRU THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WIND SHIFT TO THE N WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. WENT JUST UNDER LIKELY POPS LATE TODAY WITH THE FRONT NEARING. DOESN/T SEEM WELL ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO INSPIRE GREAT CONFIDENCE IN RAIN... BUT WITH THE LIMITED FORCING AND INSTAB AND TIME OF DAY... SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS AND TSRA. WEAK WAVE AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING ABOUT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THE MID 80S. AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN TO MVFR AND LIKELY IFR AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH COLD FRONT MOVING INTO AND THRU THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH A DRIER N WIND OVERNIGHT. MARINE... WINDS CHANNELING AROUND 15KT OUT OF THE S UP THE BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH S WINDS AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS REVERSING OUT OF THE NORTH. HIGHEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY MORNING. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY REGARDING A POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE GFS AND KEEP A MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MORE TYPICAL AIRMASS WILL RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK COLD FRONT AS WELL AS PASSING SHORT WAVES WILL LEAD TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...PELOQUIN PREV DISCUSSION...PELOQUIN/STRONG/ALLEN md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 331 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006 .DISCUSSION... A LITTLE TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A WAVE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS NW/NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WITH NOT A BIG TURN SOUTHEAST YET. THINK RUC AND NAM A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH PRECIP. IF PRECIP DOES DEVELOP FATHER SOUTHEAST IT WILL BE MOVING INTO MORE STABLE AIR. SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WARM ADVECTION. LIKE GFS AND UKMET QPF PATTERN BETTER. CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER ND/SD BORDER REGION MAY DRIFT TOWARD SW MN LATE TONIGHT. DRY FORECAST STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR FRIDAY WITH VERY LITTLE FORCING. WILL GO MORE WITH GFS AND ECMWF TIMING FOR FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW CAP DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND EVEN INTO PART OF SATURDAY EVENING. BETTER CHANCE FIR PRECIP WILL BE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS CWA. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL..GFS SHOWING SIGNAL OF SUB TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING UP TO INTERACT WITH FRONT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2.5 INCHES. WILL INCREASE POPS BUT WILL NOT GO UP TO LIKELY AT THIS POINT...UNTIL WE GET A BETTER TREND. LONGER TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AS THE PERIOD STARTS WITH DEEP UPPER TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE TIMING WITH THE GFS BEING A BIT SLOWER ON THE EXIT OF MOISTURE AND ENTRANCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. GOOD SET UP FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR PWATS OVER 2 INCHES BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION. THE DETAILS ON THE MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS SATURDAY APPROACHES...AS WELL AS THE PLACEMENT OF THE GREATEST RAINFALL. WEATHER FOR MONDAY MORNING STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT FRONT WILL HAVE EXITED THE CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH AN INCREASE IN WARMTH BY MID WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGE OVER TOP THE REGION BY THIS TIME WITH SFC TROF SETTING UP TO THE WEST WHICH SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHICH MAY ROLL EASTWARD AND AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ JPR/MDB mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 955 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006 .DISCUSSION... OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...FROM THE CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH...HAVE PROPAGATED AS FAR SOUTH AS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI. THESE WAVES HAVE BEGUN TO INTERACT WITH THE WARM MOIST AIR ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO POP UP AS A RESULT AND IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM KSGF AND KTOP BOTH SHOW A NICE INVERTED V SOUNDING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON...IF AND WHEN ACTIVITY STARTS TO POP UP AGAIN IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL COULD BE A PROBLEM. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S THIS MORNING SHOULD MITIGATE OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL. USED JUST SCATTERED (40%) POPS TO COVER THE MORNING ACTIVITY AS THE POPCORN NATURE OF THE CONVECTION MAKES IT LOOK LIKE THE STORMS WILL NOT CONGEAL INTO A LARGE COMPLEX. THE OTHER FORECAST CONSIDERATION IS THIS MORNING IS THAT WITH ALL THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND CLOUD COVER OUR HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA COULD BE IN TROUBLE. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING MIGHT STILL BE ABLE TO GET HEAT INDICES TO 105...BUT DEW POINTS WILL HAVE TO GET TO AND STAY NEAR 70 IF CLOUD COVER PREVENTS AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM CLIMBING TO 100 DEGREES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CUTTER && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 442 AM... PROBLEMS CONTINUE TO BE PRECIP CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES TODAY. MCS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ON NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AS IT VEERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI THIS MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE MID 20S...EXPECT READINGS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 100 TO 102 DEGREE RANGE. WHILE DEW POINTS IN EXTREME EAST CENTRAL KANSAS MAY MIX OUT INTO THE LOW 60S...MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW TO MID 70S. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER FOR TODAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OFTEN DURING THE PAST WEEK OR SO...AREA MAY SEE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. HAVE CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA DURING THAT TIME. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT (315K SURFACE) DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEST FOCUS SEEMS TO BE EASTERN SECTIONS SO HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR EASTERN SECTIONS. WHILE MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME DISCREPANCY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...THEY ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH FOR FRIDAY. SO GOING FORECAST OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL LOOKS GOOD FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NRR 950 PM WED... HAVE REMOVED OR LOWER POPS ALONG THE IOWA BORDER. EVENING UPR AIR INDICATES A RATHER STRONG CAP IN PLACE WITH H7 TEMPS FROM 12-14 DEG/C FM TOPEKA NORTH TO OMAHA. LATEST RUC/WRF INDICATES THAT THE WARM FRONT IN NRN MO WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY NORTH WITH THE BEST H8 THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 315K SURFACE TO BE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CWA. WEAK 315K ISENTROPIC LIFT DOES EXIST TONIGHT NEAR THE IOWA BORDER...BUT CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE FM 100-200 ACROSS THE NW CORNER. WILL HOLD A LOW POP FOR THE EXTREME NERN CORNER WHERE VERY ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WHERE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE 50 OR LOWER. ONLY OTHER RISK OF PRECIPITATION FOR TONIGHT IS WITH THE TROPICAL PLUME TO OUR NW. IT APPEARS IT WILL STAY TO OUR NW...AT LEAST FOR TONIGHT. DB && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY FOR MOZ028- MOZ029-MOZ030-MOZ031-MOZ037-MOZ038-MOZ039-MOZ040-MOZ043- MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ053-MOZ054. KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY FOR KSZ057- KSZ060-KSZ103-KSZ104-KSZ105. $$ WFO EAX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 324 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2006 .DISCUSSION... SYNOPSIS...12Z UPPR AIR ANLYS INDCD UPPR LVL H3 JET SEGMENT OF 60 KTS FM SRN SD INTO SRN MN. THE JET ENERGY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A NUMBER OF SHRTWV TROFS AT H5 WITH THE FIRST OVR SE NEB/SW IA AT 12Z. UPSTRM...ANOTHER WAVE WAS NOTED OVR ERN SD...AND YET ANOTHER IN ERN MT/NRN WY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVR ACRS ERN NEB/WRN IA...THE EML WAS STILL IN PLACE OVR THE WRN HI PLAINS WITH +15 C AT H7 AT KLBF THIS MRNG. 19Z SFC ANLYS INDCD LO PRES DEEPENING OVR NRN SD ASSOCIATED WITH THE MT SHRTWV TROF. SFC LO AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY OVR THE SRN CWA HAD PUSHED SWD INTO KS/MO. FORECAST...FORECAST STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN THRU THE EVNG. CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DVLPD OVR NRN SD AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE SFC LO AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVR CNTRL SD. OTHERWISE CONVECTION CONTS OVR NE KS ALNG BOUNDARY THAT MOVED SOUTH OF THE FA. WITH CWA IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF CONVERGENCE...AND WITH UPPR LVL RIDING OVR ERN NEB/WRN IA...STILL FEEL CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT FOR THE OAX CWA. WL INCLUDE SOME SCHC POPS FOR OUR NRN FA THIS EVNG WITH LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FM THE RUC INDICATING THAT THE MLCIN IS WEAKENING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WL ALSO INCLUDE A SCHC IN THE SRN FA WHERE ONGOING MID LVL WK CONVECTION SHLD CONT FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE...WITH LLJ FOCUSED TO OUR WEST AND SE TONIGHT...SHLD SEE A PRETTY QUIET NIGHT IN STORE. HAVE ADDED SOME FOG WITH PARTLY CLDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND SIG LO LVL MOISTURE. UPPR HEIGHTS CONT TO RISE ON FRI AS HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE BOUNDARY OVR KS/MO SHLD GENERALLY WASH OUT...OR RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT FOR FRI NIGHT. SOME DECENT THEAT-E ADVECTION NOTED ON FRI NIGHT WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...BUT INCREASING CAPPING INVERSION WL LIKELY INHIBIT TSRA DVLPMNT AND WL LEAVE OUT ATTM. SFC LO OVR THE WRN HI PLAINS WL CONT TO DEEPEN ON SAT AS WRLY UPPR LVL FLOW CONTS TO INCREASE ACRS THE ROCKIES. NAM CONTS TO BE QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT...PARTLY DUE TO OUTFLOW FM MODEL GENERATED CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT IS FM CONVECTION...FEEL THE GFS IS TO SLOW WITH THE FRONT WITH A GENERAL FLAT UPPR LVL RIDGE OVR THE SRN PLAINS. THUS HAVE ADDED SOME SCHC POPS TO THE FAR NW CWA FOR LATE SAT AFTN NR THE FRONTAL ZONE. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHC CAT OVR THE NW ON SAT NIGHT AS CONVECTION SHLD BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE LLJ DVLPS. EXTENDED...GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. FRONT WL STILL BE IN THE AREA ON SUN AND HAVE CONTD THE LIKELY POPS FOR SUN AFTN/NIGHT WITH DECENT UPPR LVL SUPPORT INDICATED BY THE NAM/GFS/EC. WL HAVE THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF THE FA ON MON WITH SFC HI PRES BUILDING IN. HAVE DROPPED TMPS FOR THE TUE-THURS PERIOD GIVEN THE SFC HI OVR THE AREA AND LIMITED MIXING EXPECTED. OTHERWISE DRY WX IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ BOUSTEAD ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 1050 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006 .UPDATE... CHALLENGE TODAY IS CONVECTIVE CHANCES. FLOW IS ONCE AGAIN VERY LIGHT UP TO 500 MB WITH NO MORE THAN ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOT FLOW. WATER VAPOR AND MODEL INITIALIZATIONS FROM NAM/RUC SHOWS NICE LOOKING VORT MAX OVER NW/WCNTRL MN LATE MORNING AND REMAINING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN. LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE DTL-FFM-ADC AREAS IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...WHILE NEW CONVECTION HAS FIRED THIS MORNING IN MARSHALL COUNTY MN. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LAPS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY OVER JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER...DID INCREASE POPS TO THE 40-50 PCT RANGE IN NW/WCTNL MN WHERE IT WOULD APPEAR GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE. CANNOT RULE OUT CONVECTION THOUGH RED RIVER WESTWARD AS HEATING INTO THE LOWER-MID 80S COMBINED WITH MID 60 TO AROUND 70 DEW PTS WOULD HAVE 1500-2000 J/KG AND LI TO -4. WILL LEAVE 20-30 POP FOR ERN ND THIS AFTN. SEPARATE 500 MB WAVE IN WRN ND SEEMS TO NOT BE INITIALIZED WELL BY MODELS AND THIS MAY ADD INCREASED COVERAGE THIS EVENING IN SE ND AS IT MOVES IN. NO CHANGES TONIGHT AND BEYOND. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ RIDDLE nd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1130 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 .UPDATE /THIS AFTERNOON/... THE CWA BASICALLY DIVIDED IN HALF THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE AND 800 MB IS TRYING TO WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE DELMARVA. SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SO FAR THIS MORNING. WAA INDUCED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER CONTINUES TO ROLL SOUTHEASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP OUR MARYLAND AND DELAWARE COUNTIES INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER EXAMINING THE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL SUITE INCLUDING THE RUC, IT WAS FOUND THAT ONLY THE NGM HAD THE WAA PRECIPITATION AS FAR EAST AS IT WAS (VIA RADAR) AT 12Z TODAY. THE OTHER MODELS HAD THE PRECIPITATION BUT THEY WERE TOO SLOW WITH ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWING A COMPLEX PATTERN WITH THE WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD, THEN A PREFRONTAL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NORTHERN MICHIGAN. MOST OF OUR CWA MAY BE CAPPED FOR AWHILE, HOWEVER AS THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER ALONG WITH BETTER UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS ARRIVING A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED. THE BETTER CHC OF CONVECTION MAY BE THIS EVENING AS THE TRUE FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AND THEN MOVES EASTWARD. HOWEVER, CURRENTLY WATCHING A CELL POPPING UP IN CHESTER COUNTY, AS A LINE OF CU IS BUILDING NORTH OF THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRECIPITATION MASS TO OUR SOUTH. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MIXED LAYER CAPE GET TO ABOUT 1500 J/KG. NEARBY 12Z RAOBS SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER ALOFT WHICH PERHAPS MAY HELP TO CAP THINGS FOR AWHILE, BUT THIS COULD ALSO PROMOTE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS THAT POP THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WE WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY. AS FOR THIS UPDATE, REWORKED THE POPS SOME BY SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE CHC POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND NEAR TERM GUIDANCE. ALSO DID SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING TONIGHT BASED ON SOME NEWER GUIDANCE, BUT DID NOT WANT TO MAKE DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD ATTM. BASED ON TEMPERATURE TRENDS THIS MORNING, BOOSTED UP THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM ABOUT PHILADELPHIA ON EASTWARD. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS TO START WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND THEN FOR EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE UPDATED ZFP HAS ALREADY HIT THE STREETS. AN UPDATED PFM AND AFM WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY WITH THE GRAPHICS BEING SENT TO THE INTERNET ATTM. HAVE A GOOD AFTERNOON! && .AVIATION... PLENTY OF CU POPPING ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN ON SOUTHWARD AS WAA GOT UNDERWAY EARLIER AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND WILL BE WATCHING FOR AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION TO POP THIS AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... NO MAJOR CHANGE MADE DURING THIS UPDATE, HOWEVER DID DELAY THE START OF THE PRECIPITATION CHCS THIS AFTERNOON MOST ZONES. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE STILL LOOKS GOOD AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES A BIT. WE WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEW PACKAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BEHIND COLD FRONT AND GOOD CAA. MORE ON THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NJ...NONE. DE...NONE. MD...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...GORSE pa AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1035 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 .SHORT TERM /TODAY/...UPR LVL RIDGE CENTERED OVR THE AL/GA BORDER CLEARLY DEFINED ON WV IMAGERY MATCHES UP FAIRLY WELL WITH NAM/RUC GUIDANCE. SEVERAL SHTWVS WILL SWING AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WHICH WILL INTERACT NOT ONLY WITH A WOBBLING FNTL BNDRY JUST N OF THE CHS CWFA BUT ALSO THE SEABREEZE AND CONVECTION OUTFLOWS LATER ON TDA. DEEP WNW FLOW MAY ACT TO PIN THE SEABREEZE A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST TDA...BUT THIS WILL NOT PREVENT SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING LATER TDA ACRS MUCH IF NOT THE ENTIRE CWFA. TIMING AND LOCATION PREVENTS MENTIONING LIKELY POPS BUT HIGH CHC 50 POPS ARE CERTAINLY VIABLE TDA. CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S WILL CERTAINLY BE MET AND THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND HIGH PWATS FOR TSTMS TO WORK WITH. ALTHOUGH MODEL AND MODIFIED AREA SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CAPE OF 4-5 DEGREES C...AS WAS SHOWN IN PREVIOUS DAYS THOSE VALUES HAVE HAD NO PROBLEM BEING BROKEN AND SHOULD AGAIN BE THE CASE TDA ALONG WITH NO CINH. AGAIN...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ISOLD STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS THE MAIN THREAT. HAVE AGAIN ADDED GUSTY WINDS TO THE GRIDDED AND TEXT PRODUCTS. WITH PWATS SO HIGH AND STORM MOTIONS AOB 5 KT...ISOLD FLOODING COULD ALSO BE A PROBLEM ESP CONSIDERING THAT SCATTERED POCKETS WITHIN THE CWFA HAS RECEIVED OVR 1 INCH OF RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS. NEXT CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. AM RATHER CONCERNED WITH THE AMT OF CLOUD COVER OVR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA THUS FAR...WHICH IS WHERE THE HEAT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. ALTHOUGH DEWPTS ARE HOLDING FORT IN THE MID 70S...THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER PLUS TCU DEVELOPMENT LATER ON MAY MAKE THINGS DIFFICULT FOR REACHING HEAT ADVY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WOULD RATHER GIVE THE ADVY A CHANCE INSTEAD OF DROPPING IT BEFORE GOOD AFTN HEATING SO WILL MAINTAIN IT AS IS. DID TWEAK DOWN TEMPS A DEGREE BUT KEPT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. HEAT INDICES FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE HEAT ADVY SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 100...POSSIBLY 102 OR 103. && .AVIATION...STILL DEALING WITH MVFR VSBYS AT KSAV DUE TO BR/HZ BUT IT APPEARS TO BE LIFTING UP TO 6SM PER THE KSAV 5-MIN OBS SO WILL LET KSAV TAF RUN AS IS. KCHS MAINTAINING VFR...SO NO VSBY CONCERNS THERE. VFR CONDS SHOULD HOLD THRU MID AFTN WHEN CONVECTION WILL AGAIN OCCUR BUT...AGAIN...LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION PREVENTS ANYTHING MORE THAN CB. WILL MAINTAIN METWATCH FOR BOTH TERMINALS AND RE-VISIT THE ISSUE IN THE 10/18Z TAFS. && .MARINE...SWLY WINDS TO CONTINUE TDA AOB 15 KT AND SEAS AOB 4 FT WITH WEAK APCHG FNTL BNDRY FROM THE N AND BERMUDA SFC HIGH PRES OFFSHORE. ONLY COSMETIC WORDING TWEAKS NEEDED TO ONGOING MARINE FCST AS ALL WX ELEMENTS LOOK WELL HANDLED. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR GAZ099>101-114>119-137>141 UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY. SC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCZ047-048-051 UNTIL 8 PM WEDNESDAY. MARINE...NONE. && $$ JPC sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 256 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...INTERESTING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID-WEST AND OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ONE SUCH WAVE (MCV) IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. CORFIDI VECTORS SLOWLY TURN MORE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME WHICH SHOULD ALLOW DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO TURN MORE SOUTH TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. FAIRLY DECENT INSTABILITY ADVECTING INTO THESE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL-WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH SPC SHOWING MLCAPES OF 4000-4500 J/KG. MLCAPES MUCH LESS OVER EAST TENNESSEE FOR NOW...BUT LATEST RUC SHOWING INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON- EVENING. GIVEN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND 500-700 THICKNESS...STORMS SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND HIGH PWS...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. LATEST HPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SHOWS A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN BY MIDNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR FRIDAY...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME MODERATE UNSTABLE WITH CAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG...SO CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY...NAM AND GFS MODELS DIFFER GREATLY IN REGARD TO SHORT-WAVE PASSAGE. GFS MUCH FASTER THAN THE NAM AND LATEST NCEP DISCUSSION SUGGEST NAM IS AN OUTLIER AND SHOULD BE DISGARDED. WILL TREND TOWARD THE LOWER POPS OF THE GFS MODEL. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH OF THE AREA WHICH COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL NOT TAKE POPS OUT TOTALLY. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...WATCHING SHORT WAVES DROPPING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE VIEWING AREA ON MODEL PROGS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LEAVING A BIT DRIER AND A LITTLE MORE STABLE ATMOSHPERE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NEXT SERIES OF WAVES HELPS TO PRESS ANOTHER SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH POSSIBILITY OF PASSAGE AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FROPA IN NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP POPS IN SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS EAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND FRONT. STAYED CLOSE TO SUPERIOR GFS MOS CONCERNING TEMPS THROUGH LONG TERM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 74 89 71 85 / 30 70 40 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 88 70 83 / 40 70 50 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 72 88 69 83 / 50 70 50 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 82 65 79 / 60 70 60 30 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DH/TH tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1052 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006 .DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS MISSOURI...ILLINOIS...AND INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH CONVECTION THUS FAR REMAINING ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS THIS MORNING ARE SHOWING SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NW/SE SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH WEAK WIND PROFILES ALOFT SURFACE BASED CAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 16KFT...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. THINK THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL/WINDS AS THE THREATS IF ANY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES THUS FAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH HEAT INDICIES ALREADY APPROACHING 100. WILL KEEP HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING UNLESS CONVECTION WARRANTS DROPPING THE HEADLINES SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BE MAKING SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE PUBLISHED SHORTLY. CJC .PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 251 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2006... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUDS FORMING OVER THE REGION. THIS IS A GOOD INDICATION OF DEEP MOISTURE POOLING AS INDICATED BY GFS/NAM. TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT COOLED MUCH TONIGHT WITH MEM STILL REPORTING 85 AT 07Z. STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED NORTH OF THE REGION WHILE RUC DATA SHOWS A GENERAL WEAKNESS AT 500MB OVER THE MIDSOUTH AND AROUND THE HIGH THAT IS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. AM INCLUDING CONVECTION IN THE MORNING AS ENVIRONMENT SEEMS PRIMED FOR SOME ISOLATED SUNRISE SURPRISE. AM CONTINUING WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR TODAY...WITH TRIPLE DIGITS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I 40. BASED UPON YESTERDAYS TRENDS...EXPECT TEMPS TO SOAR IN THE MORNING BEFORE LATE MORNING CLOUDS/CONVECTION LEVEL TEMPS. HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY WITH INDICES AROUND 105 BEING PRODUCED BY DEW POINTS AROUND 70 AND TEMPS NEAR 100. ON FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WHICH SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE FOR STORMS. RAIN CHANCES AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD SUPPRESS TEMPS. FRIDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A FOCUS FOR RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE REGION HOWEVER THE DEEPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAVE THE REGION MAINLY DRY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY WITH 850 TEMPS LOWERING TO AROUND +18 BUT SHOULD WARM BACK UP AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD- CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-MISSISSIPPI- PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS. MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT. MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON(MS)- CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE(MS)- MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN- TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA. TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER- CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN- HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY- OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY. && $$ VALLE tn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 805 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. && .AVIATION... EXPECT WIDESPREAD HAZE AND LIGHT FOG TONIGHT...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS HAVING PATCHY DENSE FOG. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE REGION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... DIFFICULT FCST FOR THIS EVE THROUGH FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW DIV AT 250 AND 850 CONV VCNTY OF SRN PORTION OF THE CWA AT VARYING TIMES THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THIS MAKES THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF HIGHER POPS DIFFICULT. LOCAL WRF MODEL AND RUC ALSO SUPPORT 250 DIV/850 CONV 23 TO 04Z TIME FRAME SO HAVE GONE WITH LKLY POPS OVER THE SOUTH THEN. INCREASE POPS AGAIN AND SHIFT TO SE DURING FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW SUPPORTS LIFT WHILE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW LEVELS SHOULD PROMOTE UPSLOPE PCPN. HAVE LOWERED THE MAX TEMPS FOR FRIDAY ALSO IN LIGHT OF THE CLOUDS/PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. AVIATION... CONDS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY NIGHT. FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SHOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO DEVELOP AS USUAL OVER NIGHT. STRONG SE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT LOW LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO NEW TAFS SHOULD REFLECT LOWER CONDITIONS AT BKW IN AFTN. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/ LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD HAVE BEEN TO INCREASE POPS FOR THE EXTREME SE CORNER OF THE CWA FOR EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TO SLOW DOWN POPS AGAIN FOR THE COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...THE SLOWDOWN WAS BETWEEN 6 TO 12 HOURS FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR QUITE A WHILE...WILL BE TEMPORARILY TAKING A VACATION...ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO SLIDE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...REALLY STARTING ON SATURDAY. IN FACT...THE RIDGE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD 12Z MONDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH...WITH THE TROUGH SLIDING IN AGAIN WITH OUR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS BUTTING HEADS AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE NAM KEEPING ABUNDANT PRECIP IN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AND THE GFS SWEEPING IN THE COOLER SFC HIGH FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT OF THESE DISCREPANCIES...HAVE TAILORED THE FORECAST WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER GFS. FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A GFS/ECMWF MIX WAS GENERALLY AGAIN PREFERRED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...RPY AVIATION...RPY wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 251 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... DIFFICULT FCST FOR THIS EVE THROUGH FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW DIV AT 250 AND 850 CONV VCNTY OF SRN PORTION OF THE CWA AT VARYING TIMES THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THIS MAKES THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF HIGHER POPS DIFFICULT. LOCAL WRF MODEL AND RUC ALSO SUPPORT 250 DIV/850 CONV 23 TO 04Z TIME FRAME SO HAVE GONE WITH LKLY POPS OVER THE SOUTH THEN. INCREASE POPS AGAIN AND SHIFT TO SE DURING FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW SUPPORTS LIFT WHILE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW LEVELS SHOULD PROMOTE UPSLOPE PCPN. HAVE LOWERED THE MAX TEMPS FOR FRIDAY ALSO IN LIGHT OF THE CLOUDS/PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. && .AVIATION... CONDS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY NIGHT. FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SHOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO DEVELOP AS USUAL OVER NIGHT. STRONG SE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT LOW LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO NEW TAFS SHOULD REFLECT LOWER CONDITIONS AT BKW IN AFTN. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/ LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD HAVE BEEN TO INCREASE POPS FOR THE EXTREME SE CORNER OF THE CWA FOR EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TO SLOW DOWN POPS AGAIN FOR THE COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...THE SLOWDOWN WAS BETWEEN 6 TO 12 HOURS FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR QUITE A WHILE...WILL BE TEMPORARILY TAKING A VACATION...ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO SLIDE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...REALLY STARTING ON SATURDAY. IN FACT...THE RIDGE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD 12Z MONDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH...WITH THE TROUGH SLIDING IN AGAIN WITH OUR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS BUTTING HEADS AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE NAM KEEPING ABUNDANT PRECIP IN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AND THE GFS SWEEPING IN THE COOLER SFC HIGH FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT OF THESE DISCREPANCIES...HAVE TAILORED THE FORECAST WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER GFS. FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A GFS/ECMWF MIX WAS GENERALLY AGAIN PREFERRED. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/ AVIATION... AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...LOW LEVELS FAIRLY SATURATED. AS A RESULT...OVERNIGHT CLOUDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT MANY VARIOUS LEVELS AOB 50 THSD. ONE UPPER AIR FEATURE DID GENERATE THOSE SHOWERS AFTER 06Z..MAINLY CKB-MGW-EKN. THAT FEATURE SHOULD BE TRANSFERRING EAST OF MOUNTAINS AT START OF 12Z TAFS. THINKING A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CAUSE CEILINGS AT 1 TO 2 THSD FT BKN/OVC 12Z-15Z. THAT SHOULD LIFT INTO 2 TO 4 THSD FT BKN/OVC AFTER 15Z. HARD TO PINPOINT ANY ENHANCED AREAS OF SHOWERS FOR AFTERNOON. MOST CAPE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN FM HTS ON W. SOME MAIN THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE TO OUR W...WITH MAINLY JUST SHOWERS HERE. HOLD WDSPRD 4 TO 6 MILES IN HAZE TODAY...WITH FOG FORMING AFTER 03Z FRI EKN-CRW. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE CAUSING EARLY MORNING SHOWERS IN NRN WV...COULD FORM DOWN THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES TOO...BUT FEATURE EXITS SHORTLY AFTER DAWN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE..SO THINKING CLOUDS COULD FORM AFTER SUNRISE WHERE THERE ARE FEW NOW. WINDS VEER INTO NW TODAY. PROBLEM IS WHERE NEXT SUPPORT WILL BE. SOME HINTS OF VORT MAX IN CNTRL IL AT 07Z. DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUDS FORECAST...KEPT POPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON...WITH THAT SUPPORT PASSING. INSTABILITY AND CAPE HIGHEST HTS ON W AND S...SO NOT MUCH ENERGY FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES. 4-6 MILES IN HAZE MAY LINGER THRU MUCH OF THE DAY...TO FIT THE LAST OF THE DOG DAY IMAGE. DRIER AIR OOZES SOUTH TONIGHT. LOWERED/DRIED POPS FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES BUT MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO SOUTHERN COUNTIES. FOG AND STRATUS MAY FORM ESPECIALLY EKN-48I-CRW AFTER 04Z. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN MODELS THROUGH SATURDAY. NAM INSISTS ON DUMPING ENERGY INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERATING A STRONG SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WHICH DUMPS RAIN ON CWA THROUGH SATURDAY. GFS AND MOST OTHER MODELS PAINT A WEAKER...MORE SUPPRESSED SCENARIO THAT ALLOWS DRIER AIRMASS TO PENETRATE SOUTHWARD MORE QUICKLY AND SUPPRESS VORT MAX TO A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. CONSIDERING THE MODEL CONSENSUS...THE NAM STILL LOOKS MORE LIKE AN OUTLIER...BUT ITS STUBBORNNESS TO CHANGE STILL GIVES ME A BIT OF PAUSE. AT ANY RATE...MODELS AGREE ON MOIST EASTERLY FLOW INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS REQUIRES AT LEAST A SMALL INCREASE IN POPS. FOR FRIDAY...KEEPING MOST POPS SOUTH OF I-64 CORRIDOR ALONG WITH QUICKER...MORE SOUTHERLY GFS TRACK. DRIER NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW GETTING INTO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES SHOULD SUPPRESS PRECIP THERE. FLOW TURNS EAST/SOUTHEAST IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. H500 WAVE ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH 00Z-06Z SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD BE BEST PERIOD FOR UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. FROM HERE ON...SLOW NORTH TO SOUTH DRYING TREND AS H500 TROUGH SLOWLY EXITS. EXPECT PRECIP TO BE GONE BY 18Z SATURDAY...WITH A DRY AND PLEASANT REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. AGAIN...MODEL TREND IS CLEAR BUT NAM IS DIFFICULT TO TOTALLY IGNORE. GENERALLY PREFERRED MET TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WENT COOLER FRIDAY/WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE SOUTH DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER/RAIN. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...AAR AVIATION...AAR wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 614 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .DISCUSSION... EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WEST TO NEAR CRW AND THEN WEST NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND THEN NW INTO CENTRAL IL. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WAS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL WV AND THE FRONT WAS DRIFTING SOUTH INTO THE CWA BEHIND THIS WAVE. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAY REGIONS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER THE OHIO VALLEY. DEWPOINTS NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WERE IN THE LOWER 60S...AS COMPARED TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS OVER THE JKL CWA. AT THE MID LEVELS...A SW/V WAS MOVING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. THE ABOVE MENTIONED SW/V WILL APPROACH THE REGION NEAR PEAK HEATING AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTH. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RATHER WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPEST. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW TO MODERATE INSTABILITY OF 1400 TO 2100 J/KG SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LI/S IN THE -3 TO -5 RANGE. SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT STORM INTERACTIONS COULD LEAD TO A STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WITH PW/S OF 1.8" OR BETTER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE THE MAIN FEATURE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE SW/V PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION AROUND MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPS TODAY WERE A TOUGH CALL WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER PLAYING A LARGE ROLE...BUT OPTED FOR THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS VERIFIED BEST AS OF LATE. IF CLOUDS ARE SLOW TO REACH THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...TEMPS THERE COULD POSSIBLY APPROACH 90. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH THE COOLER AIR WORKING INTO THE NORTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES FIRST. OPTED FOR THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE ON SAT AS WELL. THE COOLEST NIGHT SHOULD BE ON SAT NIGHT...AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES TO THE EAST. LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE COLDEST SPOTS...WHILE RIDGE LOCATIONS HOLD IN THE MID 60S. SOME FOG...ESPECIALLY VALLEY FOG MAY OCCUR...BUT DID NOT HIT REAL HARD AT THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCE MAY BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THAT HAVE RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN RECENTLY. TERRAIN DRIVEN ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED ON SUN AS RETURN FLOW BEGINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THE INVERSION MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED RATHER SHALLOW SHOWERS BELOW THE INVERSION. EXTENDED...THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME. OVERALL...MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON FORECAST 8H TEMPS...BUT GENERALLY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 90 AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 330 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 DISCUSSION... OUTFLOW FROM THE MCS OVER IA THIS MORNING IS NOW KICKING UP SOME VERY STRONG STORMS OVER SE IN. TOPS ON RADAR INDICATING OVER 60K WITH LITTLE INDICATION OF WEAKENING. TRACK OF STORMS WILL TAKE IT ACROSS ERN KY WITH IMPACT TO OCCUR AROUND 5 PM. WILL HAVE LIKELY POP TONIGHT AND FRI WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE FOLLOWING S/WV NOW OVER WRN IA. WAA HAS BOOSTED OUR HIGH TEMPS TODAY INTO THE UPPER 80S N AND LOWER 90S SW. CLOUD COVER ON FRI WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY AND WILL ONLY FCST LOWER/MID 80S FOR FRI. HAVE GONE ABOVE MAV MOS FOR MOST OTHER TEMPS AS DRY AIR WILL KEEP DRY WX IN AREA AND DRY WX WILL HEAT UP BETTER. FOG IN VALLEYS AND RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TO MIN TEMPS LIKELY. WEEKEND WX WILL FEATURE NO PCPN FROM SAT THRU MON AND TEMPS STARTING NEAR 80 AND BUILDING INTO THE UPPER 80S. NEXT SERIES OF S/WVS TO PUSH INTO ERN KY MON NITE THRU WED WITH CHC PCPN TO RETURN TO FCST AND THEN AS HIGH PRESS SHIFTS EAST TO NEW ENG NE FLOW WILL KEEP DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN FCST. HAVE FOLLOWED GFS FOR THE LONG TERM FCST. 1157 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 UPDATED THE ZONE PACKAGE THIS MORNING TO REFLECT MOST RECENT TRENDS CONCERNING THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS MOVING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. IR SAT LOOPS SHOWING THIS SYSTEM REDEVELOPING TO THE EAST. CAN ALSO SEE DECENT COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL RUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA. RUC ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A TONGUE OF INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR NOSING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...AT LEAST IN PART DUE TO THE LARGE AREA OF CLEARING TO OUR WEST. SINCE INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS REMNANTS OF THE MCS PUSHES INTO THE AREA. SPC HAS ALSO PLACED EASTERN KENTUCKY IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH PWS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. HOWEVER...THREAT IS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT WITH STEERING WINDS PICKING UP CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE DAY. UPDATED ZONE PACKAGE ALREADY OUT. 859 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 WILL ISSUE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONES TO REMOVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. WHILE THERE ARE STILL A FEW SPOTS WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG...COVERAGE IS NO LONGER EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY EXTENSION TO THE ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION OF PATCHY...LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE ZONES UNTIL MID MORNING UPDATE WHEN FOG WILL HAVE BURNED OFF. UPDATE OUT SOON. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ JP ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 333 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY AND THE TEMPERATURES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC SHOWING A CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CANADA...A RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS OF CONUS...AND ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA EXTENDING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE IS MOVING THROUGH MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN INTO THE THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM A LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO A LOW OVER OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE MONTANA...WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NEVADA. A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BLANKETS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DIGGING OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA IS FEEDING AN MCS IN THAT AREA. MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING ON THE NEXT SYSTEMS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FOR DAY 1 THROUGH 3. AFTER DAY THREE THE MODEL TIMING ARE STILL IN A FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME INTENSITY VARIATIONS. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONTINUITY SO WITH WHAT VARIATION THERE ARE...WILL FAVOR THE GFS AS PER HPC DISCUSSION. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE EAST INTO ALBERTA TODAY PUSHING THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. THE MINNESOTA SHORTWAVE WILL REACH EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. FORECAST SOUNDING SUGGEST DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND ONTARIO. THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND 30K FEET. OTHERWISE...WILL BE LOOKING FOR PLENTY OF SUN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SINCE THE IRONWOOD AREA WILL BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY...THERE WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS IN THAT AREA. THUS EXPECTING MORE LOW CLOUDS IN THAT AREA...HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND STABLE ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS TRAJECTORY FORECAST STILL DEPICT DRAWING COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM EASTERN ONTARIO TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASED SUN THERE SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING. THUS LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ABOVE GFS GUIDANCE. A CLOSED LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND SHIFT INTO NORTHERN MANITOBA SATURDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLIP INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE MID LEVEL FEATURE AND MOVE TO NORTHERN MANITOBA AS WELL. FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM THE MANITOBA LOW TO A LOW OVER WESTERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY BUT DUE TO THE DRY AIR MASS...AND STABLE CONDITIONS AT THE LOW LEVELS...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION. THE SOUNDING FORECAST INDICATES LAYER OF CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA EARLY SATURDAY...OTHERWISE FAIRLY DRY. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER MANITOBA WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY INTO EAST CENTRAL MANITOBA WHILE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RELOCATE OVER UPPER MICHIGAN...WHILE A STRONG DEEPER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIG OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN U.P. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL U.P. ON SUNDAY. THE LOW OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA WILL MANEUVER INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO AND MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. A DRY SLOT WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA. GFS/NAM INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL SHIFT A LITTLE SOUTH. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND IN MONDAY. THUS WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE FORECAST FORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO EASTERN ONTARIO...WHILE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC STATES AS A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FINDS ITS WAY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FAIRLY DRY UNTIL THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 627 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .AVIATION /12Z-12Z/... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITATION TRYING TO FILL IN. HAVE A VCSH IN KDAY AND TEMPO GROUPS AT KCVG AND KLUK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. KCMH AND KLCK SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ACROSS THE NORTH. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...SO FG/BR SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT. JUST HAVE ADDED MVFR BR AT KCVG AND KLUK WITH THOSE LOCATIONS DUE TO MORE RAINFALL. RLG && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... PCPN TRYING TO FILL IN SOME ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THOUGH WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE. THE GFS APPEARS TOO OVERDONE WITH ITS SURFACE AND 850 LOW/LOW LEVEL JET AT 06Z BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. HOWEVER ON THE OTHER HAND...NAM-WRF APPEARS TOO UNDERDONE BASED ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON. AS A RESULT WILL TAKE A BIT OF A BLEND OF THE TWO...BUT LEAN CLOSER TO DRIER NAM-WRF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO BE CRANKING OUT WAY TOO MUCH PCPN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AT ANY RATE...AS WAVE PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT OVERALL...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME TODAY...PARTICULARLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE GO CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE MOST PREVALENT. THEN EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW WARM UP IN AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. PREV DISCUSSIONS... THE FOLLOWING WAS ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006 AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... CURRENT SURFACE MAP DEPICTS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. AN AREA OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN THE NAM/WRF. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AND INCORPORATED LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN INDIANA DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST...SO HAVE KEPT A VCSH AT KDAY AND KILN. SOME SUNRISE MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES...WITH KILN DROPPING TO IFR THIS MORNING. KCVG AND KLUK WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR SHOWERS AND BR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS BUT REMOVED VCTS AND CB MENTION THROUGH 10Z. KEPT CB MENTION AFTER SUNRISE WITH BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ALLOWING FOR DRIER TO WORK INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY BEGAN TO SCATTER OUT LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. RLG ISSUED 430 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/ SFC HI PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND PROVIDE FOR A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. POLAR VORTEX WILL HOLD OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK...TRAPPED BTWN BROAD MID LVL RIDGE OVER CNTRL PLAINS AND RIDGE OVER NRN ATLC OCEAN. AS UPR LO BEGINS TO PULL NE AWAY FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND...ANOTHER FAIRLY POTENT MID LVL S/WV WILL MOVE ALONG US/CANADIAN BORDER MON AND TUES DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THRU REGION. SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA BTWN EXTENDED MODELS...SO BROUGHT CHANCE POPS INTO NRN FCST AREA MON AFTN AND ACRS ENTIRE FCST AREA MON NIGHT. FRNTL BNDRY WILL PUSH SE OF FCST AREA TUES AS ANOTHER PLEASANT CANADIAN HI PRES BUILDS INTO REGION. HI PRES WILL THEN REMAIN ACRS REGION THRU END OF FCST PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 625 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .SHORT TERM (TODAY)... ADJUSTED WORDING FOR TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND THE SHOWERS THAT MAY BRUSH THE SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AM. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WORDING OF THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST AREA. NORTHEAST FLOWS CAN BE TOUGH IN CAUSING CLOUDS IN INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO...WILL MENTION BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. THE CLOUDS OVER THE LAKE ARE NOT TOO BUBBLEY...THUS THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS SEEM VERY LOW. ALSO LOCAL WATERSPOUT SCHEME SAYS NORTHEAST FLOW IS TOUGH FOR THEM TO DEVELOP. SHORT TERM(TODAY-SUN)... COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AT 12Z WILL BE NEAR 13C AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE DAY. WILL FORECAST PARTLY CLOUDY THE ENTIRE CWA AS SOME CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM A VORT MAX THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND IN THE NORTH SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EVEN OVER NW OHIO BECAUSE THE FLOW IS NORTHEAST. ALL THE MODELS (NGM, WRF, GFS, RUC) INDICATING A THREAT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKESHORE THROUGH 14Z BECAUSE OF CONVERGENCE...WILL GO WITH A 20 POP FOR THE LAKESHORE THIS MORNING. THE CANADIAN AND LOCAL SCHEME INDICATE A WATERSPOUT THREAT BECAUSE OF COLD AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE AND SOME CONVERGENCE AS INDICATED BY RADAR AND SATELLITE. THE CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO BE DECREASING. THE THREAT SHOULD END BY NOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. MAY MENTION A WATERSPOUT THREAT IN HWO. CLEARING TONIGHT AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE WARMS SOME AND DECREASES THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO ABOUT 10C DURING THE NIGHT. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH AND THE AIRMASS DRYING OUT SOME IT WILL BE OR BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. PLENTY OF SUN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAV GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY OK...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...A LITTLE WARMER SATURDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE MAV MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN THE EAST AND TOO COOL AT TOL. && .LONG TERM (MON-THU)... THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT FOR MONDAY THAN THE GFS. NONE THE LESS THE THREAT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD BE OK. ACCORDING TO THE GFS THE CAPE AND LIS NOT THAT BAD. WILL MONITOR SPC DAY4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN FOR THE EXTD WITH ONLY ONE COLD FRONT TO DEAL WITH MON AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTRED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE-THU. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. && .AVIATION(06Z-06Z)... LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA. WILL ACCOUNT FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AT CLEVELAND...ERIE...AND TOLEDO THIS MORNING. REST OF THE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL START MORNING OVER AREA WITH CLOUDS BUT REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA ALONG WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST AS GRADIENT INCREASES DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA LONG TERM...OUDEMAN/KIELTYKA AVIATION...LOMBARDY oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 355 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .SHORT TERM(TODAY-SUN)... COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AT 12Z WILL BE NEAR 13C AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE DAY. WILL FORECAST PARTLY CLOUDY THE ENTIRE CWA AS SOME CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM A VORT MAX THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND IN THE NORTH SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EVEN OVER NW OHIO BECAUSE THE FLOW IS NORTHEAST. ALL THE MODELS (NGM, WRF, GFS, RUC) INDICATING A THREAT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKESHORE THROUGH 14Z BECAUSE OF CONVERGENCE...WILL GO WITH A 20 POP FOR THE LAKESHORE THIS MORNING. THE CANADIAN AND LOCAL SCHEME INDICATE A WATERSPOUT THREAT BECAUSE OF COLD AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE AND SOME CONVERGENCE AS INDICATED BY RADAR AND SATELLITE. THE CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO BE DECREASING. THE THREAT SHOULD END BY NOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. MAY MENTION A WATERSPOUT THREAT IN HWO. CLEARING TONIGHT AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE WARMS SOME AND DECREASES THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO ABOUT 10C DURING THE NIGHT. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH AND THE AIRMASS DRYING OUT SOME IT WILL BE OR BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. PLENTY OF SUN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAV GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY OK...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...A LITTLE WARMER SATURDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE MAV MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN THE EAST AND TOO COOL AT TOL. && .LONG TERM (MON-THU)... THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT FOR MONDAY THAN THE GFS. NONE THE LESS THE THREAT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD BE OK. ACCORDING TO THE GFS THE CAPE AND LIS NOT THAT BAD. WILL MONITOR SPC DAY4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN FOR THE EXTD WITH ONLY ONE COLD FRONT TO DEAL WITH MON AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTRED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE-THU. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. && .AVIATION(06Z-06Z)... LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE AREA. WILL ACCOUNT FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY AT CLEVELAND...ERIE...AND TOLEDO THIS MORNING. REST OF THE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL START MORNING OVER AREA WITH CLOUDS BUT REMAIN VFR THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DRIER AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA ALONG WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST AS GRADIENT INCREASES DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA LONG TERM...OUDEMAN/KIELTYKA AVIATION...LOMBARDY oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 225 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... PCPN TRYING TO FILL IN SOME ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THOUGH WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE. THE GFS APPEARS TOO OVERDONE WITH ITS SURFACE AND 850 LOW/LOW LEVEL JET AT 06Z BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. HOWEVER ON THE OTHER HAND...NAM-WRF APPEARS TOO UNDERDONE BASED ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON. AS A RESULT WILL TAKE A BIT OF A BLEND OF THE TWO...BUT LEAN CLOSER TO DRIER NAM-WRF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO BE CRANKING OUT WAY TOO MUCH PCPN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AT ANY RATE...AS WAVE PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT OVERALL...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME TODAY...PARTICULARLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE GO CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE MOST PREVALENT. THEN EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW WARM UP IN AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. && .PREV DISCUSSIONS... THE FOLLOWING WAS ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006 AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... CURRENT SURFACE MAP DEPICTS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. AN AREA OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN THE NAM/WRF. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AND INCORPORATED LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN INDIANA DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST...SO HAVE KEPT A VCSH AT KDAY AND KILN. SOME SUNRISE MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES...WITH KILN DROPPING TO IFR THIS MORNING. KCVG AND KLUK WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR SHOWERS AND BR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS BUT REMOVED VCTS AND CB MENTION THROUGH 10Z. KEPT CB MENTION AFTER SUNRISE WITH BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ALLOWING FOR DRIER TO WORK INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY BEGAN TO SCATTER OUT LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. RLG ISSUED 430 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/ SFC HI PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND PROVIDE FOR A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. POLAR VORTEX WILL HOLD OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK...TRAPPED BTWN BROAD MID LVL RIDGE OVER CNTRL PLAINS AND RIDGE OVER NRN ATLC OCEAN. AS UPR LO BEGINS TO PULL NE AWAY FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND...ANOTHER FAIRLY POTENT MID LVL S/WV WILL MOVE ALONG US/CANADIAN BORDER MON AND TUES DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THRU REGION. SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA BTWN EXTENDED MODELS...SO BROUGHT CHANCE POPS INTO NRN FCST AREA MON AFTN AND ACRS ENTIRE FCST AREA MON NIGHT. FRNTL BNDRY WILL PUSH SE OF FCST AREA TUES AS ANOTHER PLEASANT CANADIAN HI PRES BUILDS INTO REGION. HI PRES WILL THEN REMAIN ACRS REGION THRU END OF FCST PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 144 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... CURRENT SURFACE MAP DEPICTS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. AN AREA OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN THE NAM/WRF. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AND INCORPORATED LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN INDIANA DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST...SO HAVE KEPT A VCSH AT KDAY AND KILN. SOME SUNRISE MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES...WITH KILN DROPPING TO IFR THIS MORNING. KCVG AND KLUK WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR SHOWERS AND BR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS BUT REMOVED VCTS AND CB MENTION THROUGH 10Z. KEPT CB MENTION AFTER SUNRISE WITH BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ALLOWING FOR DRIER TO WORK INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY BEGAN TO SCATTER OUT LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. RLG && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/ SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... CONVECTION IS FIRING AROUND CVG METRO AREA AND ALONG A BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST NW OF KDAY...STRETCHING SE. DO NOT THINK THAT THIS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT THIS SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL GET ITS MID LEVEL FORCING AND ANY INSTABILITY FROM UPSTREAM WHICH IS HARD TO GAUGE CONSIDERING THERE AREN'T MANY STORMS ATTM. WILL NOT REMOVE THUNDER...AND THE WIDELY SCT NATURE OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THIS SHOULD OCCUR WHERE THEY ARE FIRING ATTM ALONG A VANCEBURG...GEORGETOWN...METRO CINCY...I-74 LINE. THIS IS HANDLED WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND I'M NOT GOING TO CHANGE THE CATEGORICAL CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE SW THAT ARE FOUND LATER OVERNIGHT JUST BECAUSE IT'S STARTING OUT SLOW. UPDATE THIS EVENING IS MAINLY COSMETIC...MAY BRING IN THE HIGHER CHANCE OF PREICP A LITTLE EARLIER AS THE ACTIVITY ALONG OHRIVER IS REALLY GETTING GOING AND SHOULD BE FARILY PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT. FRANKS AVIATION /0Z-0Z/... MAJORITY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN SW FCST AREA OUTSIDE OF TAF SITES. CVG WILL GET INTO ACTIVITY THE LONGEST...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS STILL STRONG ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE AXIS OF PRECIP FROM EXPECTED MCS. NERN EXTENT OF PREICP WILL HAVE A STRONG CUTOFF WITH DRIER NE WINDS BEING ENTRAINED...BUT THIS ALSO WILL DEPEND ON WHERE AXIS OF MID LEVEL LIFT SETS UP. TRACK OF SFC LOW CONTINUES TO BE IN QUESTION...BUT MODELS AGREE THAT THE NE SIDE OF SFC LOW (CLOSER TO H5 VORT AXIS) WILL BE THE AREA FOR THE MCS TO TRACK TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI. NAM12 HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON QPF FIELDS ATTM...AND IS INDICATING THE LINE OF INSTABILITY CURRENTLY RUNNING FORM PKB AND S OF ZZV THRU CMH AND FWA TOWARDS VPZ WILL SEE ACTIVITY FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT. IT ALSO PROGS THAT THIS WILL BE ALL OF THE ACTIVITY OVER CWA THROUGH 12Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR SW. UNLESS SHOWERS FILL IN ON THIS LINE...WILL PLAY DOWN THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION OVER NERN 1/2 OF FCST AREA AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. AM ALSO CURRENTLY SEEING SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING OUT OF CVG FOR AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF VALID TAFS. FRANKS PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... ISSUED 430 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/ CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA SOON. REMNANTS FROM THE MORNING MCS THAT OCCURRED TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. BUT THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOO. THEN THE QUESTION BECOMES WHEN AND WHERE CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS REGARD. MODEL CONSENSUS SAYS THAT CINCINNATI AND AREAS SOUTH AND WEST WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. FROM THAT AREA THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT IN PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHEAST. HAVE DRAWN POPS IN A SIMILAR MANNER ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHTER PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AN ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. IN THE WAKE OF THIS THERE WILL BE AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALTHOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING IN THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. EXPECT SUFFICIENT CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/ SFC HI PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND PROVIDE FOR A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. POLAR VORTEX WILL HOLD OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK...TRAPPED BTWN BROAD MID LVL RIDGE OVER CNTRL PLAINS AND RIDGE OVER NRN ATLC OCEAN. AS UPR LO BEGINS TO PULL NE AWAY FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND...ANOTHER FAIRLY POTENT MID LVL S/WV WILL MOVE ALONG US/CANADIAN BORDER MON AND TUES DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THRU REGION. SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA BTWN EXTENDED MODELS...SO BROUGHT CHANCE POPS INTO NRN FCST AREA MON AFTN AND ACRS ENTIRE FCST AREA MON NIGHT. FRNTL BNDRY WILL PUSH SE OF FCST AREA TUES AS ANOTHER PLEASANT CANADIAN HI PRES BUILDS INTO REGION. HI PRES WILL THEN REMAIN ACRS REGION THRU END OF FCST PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. RYAN && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 443 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .SHORT TERM/TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CURRENTLY SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST TO OUR NORTH...AND WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY. SHORT TERM 00Z RUN MODELS/ESPECIALLY THE NAM/WRF HAVE INITIALIZED POORLY ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND NEITHER THE GFS OR THE NAM/WRF PICKED UP ON MCS ACTIVITY ACRS WRN NC EARLIER. A FEW STRAY SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE HELD TOGETHER THRU SCNTRL VA AND LOOK TO MOVE INTO PIEDMNT CNTYS OVR THE NXT FEW HRS. OVERALL...FOR TODAY HAVE FOLLOWED RUC DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF GFS AND WRF. NNE FLOW IN LOW LVLS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MSTLY CLDY EXCEPT FOR N/NE ZONES CLOSER TO THE DRIER AIR WHERE SKIES LOOK TO BECOME PTLY SNNY AFTER INITIAL LOW CLDS MIX OUT. AS FOR TEMPS WENT A BIT COOLER THAN GDNC DUE TO THE CLDS AND NNE FLOW...MOST AREAS LOOK TO MAX OUT CLOSE TO 80F. SFC BASED INSTABALITY NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE TODAY BUT WITH MODERATELY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES ABOUT 6.5C MVG THRU LATER THIS AFTN/EVENG WITH NXT SHORTWAVE WILL STILL MENTION AT LEAST ISO THUNDER FOR MOST ZONES. POP WISE HAVE GONE DRY IN MD TO 50% SCTD ACRS SW ZONES CLOSEST TO APPCHG SHTWAVE FROM TN/OH VLY. TONIGHT...CONTD LKLY POPS IN FAR SRN ZONES FOR THE EVENG HRS AS THIS APPEARS TO BE TIME OF BEST LOW LVL CONV AND UPR DIV FROM RRQ OF DEPARTING UPR JET. FARTHER NORTH POPS ARE MUCH LWR (20-30%) AS MORE STABLE AIR WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED IN FROM THE NORTH (AND CONTD WITH DRY FCST IN MD). GNRLY FAVORED A SOLN BETWN GFS WHICH LOOKS FAR TOO HIGH WITH THE QPF AND NAM WHICH IS TOO FAR SOUTH WITH PRECIP DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR WEST. SKIES BECOME MSTLY CLR N AND PCDY SOUTH TWDS DAYBRK. SAT...ASIDE FROM LINGERING LOW CLDS EARLY MAINLY NEAR VA/NC BORDER SAT LOOKS TO BE A NICE PTLY TO MSNNY DAY WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NRML FOR MID AUGUST...HIGHS ONLY IN UPR 70S TO LWR 80S FOR THE MOST PART. SAT NGT SKIES BECOME CLR ALL ZONES AS SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLC. TEMPS MAY CHALLENGE REC LOWS AT NORMALLY COOL SBY ASOS. MOST AREAS WILL DIP INTO 50S FOR 1ST TIME IN QUITE AWHILE...GNRLY IN MID/UPR 60S ALONG SE VA/NC COAST. && .LONG TERM/SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRG HIGH PRESSURE CNTRD OVER REGION SUNDAY...SLIDING OFFSHORE INTO ERLY NXT WEEK. TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DGRS SUNDAY AND SUN NGT...BUT OTHERWISE HAVE MADE NO CHNGES AS IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD UNTIL TUE/WED AS NXT FRONT APPROACHES. && .AVIATION... WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS (3-5SM) EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF IFR OR 1-2SM VSBYS...WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART BY 13-15Z THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LOWER CHES BAY/MID ATLC COAST WITH THE MOIST NE FLOW. && .MARINE... WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HOISTED IN ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL SURGE TODAY...THEN ANOTHER ONE SAT MORNING AS THE LOW DEPARTS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND LEADS TO A SECONDARY EPISODE OF 900-800 MB COOLING ON THE BACKSIDE. NE FLOW MAY ABATE A LITTLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...HOWEVER STRONG OVER-WATER INSTBY/VIGOROUS MIXING SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS AT THE VERY LEAST NEAR THE BOTTOM END OF SCA CRITERIA. THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SCA'S GOING THROUGH SATURDAY OVER ALL WATERS...AND THROUGH EARLY SUN OVER THE SRN CSTL WATERS..SHORT TERM /TODAY/... && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630>632 FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM SATURDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ633 FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 4 PM SATURDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ654 FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ650-652 FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ656-658 FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM SUNDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...BROWN LONG TERM...BROWN AVIATION...HURLEY MARINE...HURLEY va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 400 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES PRODUCED AS MUCH AS 3-4 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...BASED ON RAIN GAUGES AND KFCX WSR-88D RADAR. DID NOT RECEIVE ANY REPORTS OF MAJOR FLOODING. HOWEVER...THE WATER DID FLOOD QUITE A FEW OF THE ROADS ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOGAN AND WYOMING COUNTIES. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN GENERATED BY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH COULD NOT REALLY BE SEEN IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...UNTIL THE STORMS HAD FORMED. THIS TROF HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST VA COUNTIES FOR TODAY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ENDING WITH CLEARING SKIES FROM NORTH OT SOUTH. TEMP GUIDANCE FOR TODAY APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE WAS COOLER WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND HAVE TWEAKED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN TO REFLECT THIS TREND. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... MODELS EXIT COOL FRONT TO THE SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS IN THE FAR SOUTH ENDING BY NOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CANADA EARLY SATURDAY RIDGES SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES OUR REGION TUESDAY. LOOKS TO BE A STRONG ENOUGH UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY... AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT GETS A GOOD PUSH SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH RATHER STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL BRING BACK DRIER WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006/ AVIATION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WV...NORTHEAST KY AND SOUTHWEST VA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS NEAR THESE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE IFR/LIFR CATEGORIES...WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THE STORMS. ACROSS THE NORTH...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL RESULT IN DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AFTER DARK TONIGHT. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. AVIATION... EXPECT WIDESPREAD HAZE AND LIGHT FOG TONIGHT...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS HAVING PATCHY DENSE FOG. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE REGION. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... DIFFICULT FCST FOR THIS EVE THROUGH FRIDAY. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW DIV AT 250 AND 850 CONV VCNTY OF SRN PORTION OF THE CWA AT VARYING TIMES THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THIS MAKES THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF HIGHER POPS DIFFICULT. LOCAL WRF MODEL AND RUC ALSO SUPPORT 250 DIV/850 CONV 23 TO 04Z TIME FRAME SO HAVE GONE WITH LKLY POPS OVER THE SOUTH THEN. INCREASE POPS AGAIN AND SHIFT TO SE DURING FRIDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW SUPPORTS LIFT WHILE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AT LOW LEVELS SHOULD PROMOTE UPSLOPE PCPN. HAVE LOWERED THE MAX TEMPS FOR FRIDAY ALSO IN LIGHT OF THE CLOUDS/PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006/ LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... CHANGES FOR THIS PERIOD HAVE BEEN TO INCREASE POPS FOR THE EXTREME SE CORNER OF THE CWA FOR EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TO SLOW DOWN POPS AGAIN FOR THE COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...THE SLOWDOWN WAS BETWEEN 6 TO 12 HOURS FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR QUITE A WHILE...WILL BE TEMPORARILY TAKING A VACATION...ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO SLIDE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...REALLY STARTING ON SATURDAY. IN FACT...THE RIDGE SHOULD BE OVERHEAD 12Z MONDAY. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED THOUGH...WITH THE TROUGH SLIDING IN AGAIN WITH OUR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE NAM AND GFS BUTTING HEADS AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE NAM KEEPING ABUNDANT PRECIP IN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AND THE GFS SWEEPING IN THE COOLER SFC HIGH FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT OF THESE DISCREPANCIES...HAVE TAILORED THE FORECAST WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER GFS. FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A GFS/ECMWF MIX WAS GENERALLY AGAIN PREFERRED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JSH LONG TERM...JMV wv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 955 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .UPDATE... MORNING SOUNDING AT KMPX SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. 09Z/12Z RUC SUGGESTS SOME DRYING BUT STILL ENOUGH TO GET CU/TCU. BEST AREA FOR A FEW SHOWERS WOULD BE IN EAST CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN IN CURRENT CLOUD FREE AREA. MORE STABLE AIR INTO WI. WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW...WITH VERY LITTLE OTHER FORCING. TEMPS SEEM OK. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006/ DISCUSSION... FORECAST CONCERN NEAR TERM CONSISTS OF ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL CWA EARLY. LAST VESTIGES OF IOWA/SODAK MCS MOVING ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MN EARLY AM. SURFACE THETA-E RIDGE ALONG WITH LEFTOVER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER THIS REGION EARLY AM...AND MAY YET YIELD A TSRA OR TWO. DO BELIEVE THIS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND 12Z HOWEVER. DRIER/MORE STABLE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD THEN TAKE OVER CWA TODAY. SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE AND WITH H85 TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE LOWER TEENS...LOWER 80S SHOULD BE THE RULE. LIKE THE 00Z GFS OVERALL WITH TIMING OF SUN/SUN NIGHT FRONT ACROSS REGION. FORECAST MCS'S IN THE MEANTIME IS THE CHALLENGE IN BETWEEN. APPEARS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...AND THICKNESS INDICATES MCS MOVING INTO FAR NORTHWEST CWA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED MENTION IN THE NORTHWEST CWA AFTER 08Z. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT WEST. PWATS INCREASE IN THIS REGION AS WELL. ANY REMNANTS OF MCS SHOULD TRAVEL ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHERN/INTO CENTRAL CWA SATURDAY MORNING SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME POPS FOR THIS. BOUNDARY CONSIDERATIONS ARE AN ADDED PROBLEM FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE KEPT SOME POPS GOING IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. SOME INDICATION THAT MID LEVEL CAP DEVELOPING INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WHICH MAY STALL DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST INITIALLY. ANOTHER MCS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN DAKOTAS OR WESTERN MN. CONTINUED MODERATE POPS ACROSS THE WEST INTO SUNDAY. THEN FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA. CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH INSTABILITY/FORCING FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH HIGH PWAT AVAILABLE. LONGER TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FRONT WELL AHEAD OF TROUGH...SO MOISTURE SHOULD BE SCOURED OUT OF THE LOWER LEVELS AS SFC HI BRINGS IN DRY W TO NW FLOW. UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER MN/WI THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN... UKMET... CANADIAN AND ECMWF ALL DEPICT RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS WED AFTERNOON OR NIGHT...HERALDING A RETURN TO UPPER SW FLOW. HOWEVER... THE GREATEST ENERGY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO CANADA. LIFT WITH EMBEDDED NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES MAY EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTH INTO THE CWA. THERE IS ALSO A HINT OF SUBTROPICAL JET APPROACHING AND GFS BRINGS IN TWO INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR THURSDAY. THUS WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR THURSDAY. WARMING TEMPS AND DEW POINTS OF COURSE WITH APPROACH OF WRN TROUGH. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$ DWE/TDK/JPR mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1015 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .UPDATE... NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOWS UP NICELY IN MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY..JUST BEHIND DRY SLOT BEGINNING TO ROTATE INTO THE CWA. HAVE SENT UPDATE TO ADJUST SKY/TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS. ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LATE MORNING POPS/WEATHER/QPF. IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...AS WELL AS JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION. RUC IS DEPICTING A RATHER UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGH CAPES AND LITTLE CAP. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE LIKELY OVERDONE. KTOP 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DRY PUNCH ON WATER VAPOR. THIS DRYING IS EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE IN HINDERING STORM DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS CUTTING OFF THE DRY SLOT FARTHER EAST...AND LATEST WRF IS PAINTING SOME POPCORN CONVECTION OVER OUR NORTHEASTERN/EASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS ROUGHLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. UPDATED PRODUCTS ARE OUT. SCHULTZ && .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THESE STORMS LOOKED TO BE FIRING IN AN AREA OF CONFLUENCE/CONVERGENCE AROUND 850MB AS DEPICTED BY THE WIND PROFILER NETWORK. ANOTHER FEATURE AIDING THE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA IS A DECENT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY TRACKING THROUGH THE REGION. ALSO NOTED WAS A 80 TO 100 KT JET STREAK MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE CONFIGURATION OF THIS JET STREAK PUT THE FORECAST AREA IN THE FAVORABLE ENTRANCE REGION FOR SOME GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. ITS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN WILL END ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD...TAKING THE UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH IT. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO VEER...WHICH WILL PUT THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE THIS MORNING...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AS WELL. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT RADAR TRENDS BEFORE MAKING THE FINAL DECISION ON POPS...BUT THE FIRST GUESS WILL BE HIGH END CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...DWINDLING DOWN TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. LOOKING AT ALL OF THE FORCING PARAMETERS...THE ETA LOOKED TO HAVE TOO HIGH OF POPS FOR TODAY. FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE DRIER MAV. THE SREF HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION...AND IT'S SOLUTION IS CLOSE TO MY THINKING WITH THE BULK OF RAINFALL ENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. ONE ITEM THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS A WEAKENING MCS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE REMNANTS OF THIS FEATURE MAY REACH CENTRAL MISSOURI TOWARD MIDDAY. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THAT AREA THIS MORNING...AND SINKING MOTION ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION...I'M NOT EXPECTING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE WITH ANY POSSIBLE MCV LEFT OVER. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY...WHICH WILL ACT TO FORCE THE VERY HOT AIRMASS WE'VE HAD THE PAST FEW DAYS WESTWARD. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TODAY. AREAS OUT WEST WILL LIKELY STILL REACH THE MIDDLE 90S WITH CLEARING LIKELY BY MIDDAY...WHILE COLD COVER AND COOLER AIR FILTERING IN THE FROM THE EAST WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION...EASTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING PW VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 1 INCH ON SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER FRONT BY THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. GOING THE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE UKMET AND GFS. I'VE GOT LOW POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR FAR NORTHWEST AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREE WARMER THAN TODAY ON SATURDAY AREAWIDE. WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION...SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY WARM. UPPER 90S ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE PLATEAU WITH LOWER 90S EXPECTED ACROSS THE GREENER AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL MISSOURI. SAW && .AVIATION... SCATTERED STRATUS AROUND 5 KFT AND A BROKEN MID LEVEL DECK NEAR 9 KFT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THE ACCOMPANYING MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL BE CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD TERMINALS BEFORE ENDING BY MID MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. FOSTER && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ WFO SGF mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 1000 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)... UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING PORTION. ALSO WENT MOSTLY SUNNY IN NE. && .AVIATION(12Z-12Z)... DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE EASTERN AREAS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT. SOME LINGERING VFR AND MVFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE WESTERN HALF THROUGH THE DAY WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY)... ADJUSTED WORDING FOR TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND THE SHOWERS THAT MAY BRUSH THE SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AM. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WORDING OF THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST AREA. NORTHEAST FLOWS CAN BE TOUGH IN CAUSING CLOUDS IN INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO...WILL MENTION BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. THE CLOUDS OVER THE LAKE ARE NOT TOO BUBBLEY...THUS THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS SEEM VERY LOW. ALSO LOCAL WATERSPOUT SCHEME SAYS NORTHEAST FLOW IS TOUGH FOR THEM TO DEVELOP. SHORT TERM(TODAY-SUN)... COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AT 12Z WILL BE NEAR 13C AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE DAY. WILL FORECAST PARTLY CLOUDY THE ENTIRE CWA AS SOME CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM A VORT MAX THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND IN THE NORTH SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EVEN OVER NW OHIO BECAUSE THE FLOW IS NORTHEAST. ALL THE MODELS (NGM, WRF, GFS, RUC) INDICATING A THREAT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKESHORE THROUGH 14Z BECAUSE OF CONVERGENCE...WILL GO WITH A 20 POP FOR THE LAKESHORE THIS MORNING. THE CANADIAN AND LOCAL SCHEME INDICATE A WATERSPOUT THREAT BECAUSE OF COLD AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE AND SOME CONVERGENCE AS INDICATED BY RADAR AND SATELLITE. THE CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO BE DECREASING. THE THREAT SHOULD END BY NOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. MAY MENTION A WATERSPOUT THREAT IN HWO. CLEARING TONIGHT AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE WARMS SOME AND DECREASES THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO ABOUT 10C DURING THE NIGHT. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH AND THE AIRMASS DRYING OUT SOME IT WILL BE OR BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. PLENTY OF SUN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAV GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY OK...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...A LITTLE WARMER SATURDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE MAV MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN THE EAST AND TOO COOL AT TOL. && .LONG TERM (MON-THU)... THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT FOR MONDAY THAN THE GFS. NONE THE LESS THE THREAT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD BE OK. ACCORDING TO THE GFS THE CAPE AND LIS NOT THAT BAD. WILL MONITOR SPC DAY4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN FOR THE EXTD WITH ONLY ONE COLD FRONT TO DEAL WITH MON AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTRED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE-THU. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/LW LONG TERM...OUDEMAN/KIELTYKA AVIATION...LOMBARDY oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 912 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ARE SLOWLY DROPPING SSE. INCREASED POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE INDIANA COUNTIES...AS THIS AREA WILL SCRAPE THROUGH THEM. NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THESE SHOWERS WILL WORK...AS THE EASTERN EDGE HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND ERODING OVER THE LAST HOUR. DIDNT BRING THE INCREASED POPS EAST OF I-75. DROPPED MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE EAST AND LOWERED POPS. TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER LOOK OKAY FOR NOW. SITES && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006/ AVIATION /12Z-12Z/... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITATION TRYING TO FILL IN. HAVE A VCSH IN KDAY AND TEMPO GROUPS AT KCVG AND KLUK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. KCMH AND KLCK SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ACROSS THE NORTH. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...SO FG/BR SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT. JUST HAVE ADDED MVFR BR AT KCVG AND KLUK WITH THOSE LOCATIONS DUE TO MORE RAINFALL. RLG PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... PCPN TRYING TO FILL IN SOME ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THOUGH WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE. THE GFS APPEARS TOO OVERDONE WITH ITS SURFACE AND 850 LOW/LOW LEVEL JET AT 06Z BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. HOWEVER ON THE OTHER HAND...NAM-WRF APPEARS TOO UNDERDONE BASED ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON. AS A RESULT WILL TAKE A BIT OF A BLEND OF THE TWO...BUT LEAN CLOSER TO DRIER NAM-WRF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO BE CRANKING OUT WAY TOO MUCH PCPN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AT ANY RATE...AS WAVE PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT OVERALL...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME TODAY...PARTICULARLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE GO CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE MOST PREVALENT. THEN EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW WARM UP IN AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. PREV DISCUSSIONS... THE FOLLOWING WAS ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006 AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... CURRENT SURFACE MAP DEPICTS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. AN AREA OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN THE NAM/WRF. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AND INCORPORATED LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN INDIANA DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST...SO HAVE KEPT A VCSH AT KDAY AND KILN. SOME SUNRISE MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES...WITH KILN DROPPING TO IFR THIS MORNING. KCVG AND KLUK WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR SHOWERS AND BR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS BUT REMOVED VCTS AND CB MENTION THROUGH 10Z. KEPT CB MENTION AFTER SUNRISE WITH BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ALLOWING FOR DRIER TO WORK INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY BEGAN TO SCATTER OUT LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. RLG ISSUED 430 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/ SFC HI PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND PROVIDE FOR A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. POLAR VORTEX WILL HOLD OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK...TRAPPED BTWN BROAD MID LVL RIDGE OVER CNTRL PLAINS AND RIDGE OVER NRN ATLC OCEAN. AS UPR LO BEGINS TO PULL NE AWAY FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND...ANOTHER FAIRLY POTENT MID LVL S/WV WILL MOVE ALONG US/CANADIAN BORDER MON AND TUES DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THRU REGION. SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA BTWN EXTENDED MODELS...SO BROUGHT CHANCE POPS INTO NRN FCST AREA MON AFTN AND ACRS ENTIRE FCST AREA MON NIGHT. FRNTL BNDRY WILL PUSH SE OF FCST AREA TUES AS ANOTHER PLEASANT CANADIAN HI PRES BUILDS INTO REGION. HI PRES WILL THEN REMAIN ACRS REGION THRU END OF FCST PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM... oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 721 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .AVIATION(12Z-12Z)... DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE EASTERN AREAS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT. SOME LINGERING VFR AND MVFR CLOUDS WILL PERSIST IN THE WESTERN HALF THROUGH THE DAY WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY)... ADJUSTED WORDING FOR TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND THE SHOWERS THAT MAY BRUSH THE SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AM. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WORDING OF THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST AREA. NORTHEAST FLOWS CAN BE TOUGH IN CAUSING CLOUDS IN INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO...WILL MENTION BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. THE CLOUDS OVER THE LAKE ARE NOT TOO BUBBLEY...THUS THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS SEEM VERY LOW. ALSO LOCAL WATERSPOUT SCHEME SAYS NORTHEAST FLOW IS TOUGH FOR THEM TO DEVELOP. SHORT TERM(TODAY-SUN)... COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AT 12Z WILL BE NEAR 13C AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE DAY. WILL FORECAST PARTLY CLOUDY THE ENTIRE CWA AS SOME CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM A VORT MAX THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND IN THE NORTH SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EVEN OVER NW OHIO BECAUSE THE FLOW IS NORTHEAST. ALL THE MODELS (NGM, WRF, GFS, RUC) INDICATING A THREAT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKESHORE THROUGH 14Z BECAUSE OF CONVERGENCE...WILL GO WITH A 20 POP FOR THE LAKESHORE THIS MORNING. THE CANADIAN AND LOCAL SCHEME INDICATE A WATERSPOUT THREAT BECAUSE OF COLD AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE AND SOME CONVERGENCE AS INDICATED BY RADAR AND SATELLITE. THE CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO BE DECREASING. THE THREAT SHOULD END BY NOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. MAY MENTION A WATERSPOUT THREAT IN HWO. CLEARING TONIGHT AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE WARMS SOME AND DECREASES THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO ABOUT 10C DURING THE NIGHT. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH AND THE AIRMASS DRYING OUT SOME IT WILL BE OR BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. PLENTY OF SUN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAV GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY OK...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...A LITTLE WARMER SATURDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE MAV MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN THE EAST AND TOO COOL AT TOL. && .LONG TERM (MON-THU)... THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT FOR MONDAY THAN THE GFS. NONE THE LESS THE THREAT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD BE OK. ACCORDING TO THE GFS THE CAPE AND LIS NOT THAT BAD. WILL MONITOR SPC DAY4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN FOR THE EXTD WITH ONLY ONE COLD FRONT TO DEAL WITH MON AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTRED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE-THU. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA LONG TERM...OUDEMAN/KIELTYKA AVIATION...LOMBARDY oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1029 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .UPDATE...FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY ADJUSTED UPWARD BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN-MOST TIER OF ZONES...AS PER THE LATEST RUC AND 12 HI-RES NAM 850HPA THERMAL PROGS. WINDS ALSO APPEAR TO INCREASE TO THE WINDY CATEGORY OUT ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. TWEAKED THE START TIME OF CONVECTION TO APPX 23Z FOR THE WESTERN-MOST TIER OF COUNTIES AND CONCENTRATED MOVEMENT OF POPS INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. RESENDING POINT FORECAST MATRICES AND SUBMITTING AN AMMENED FIRE WX FORECAST BY THE TOP OF THE HOUR. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AT THE MOMENT. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ DORN sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1045 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .AVIATION... HAVE AMENDED METROPLEX TAFS TO SHOW EALIER TS TIMING. AIRMASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE WEAK LIFT NECCESARY TO GET ISO-SCT TS GOING ALONG RED RIVER. STORMS WILL MOVE SSE AS MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS WHICH WOULD BRING THEM INTO THE METROPLEX BETWEEN 6PM AND MIDNIGHT. HAVE PUT A PROB30 CENTERED AROUND 2-3Z...BUT 18Z TAF ISSUANCE WILL REQUIRE THE REMOVAL OF PROB30...AND WILL MAKE THE DECISION WHETHER TO GO VCTS OR TEMPO AT THAT TIME. TR.92 && .UPDATE... CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES ALREADY...SO I AM LOWERING HIGHS A BIT UP THERE. DON/T THINK 100S WILL HAPPEN WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS. I AM CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTICALLY RAISING THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED A TREND OF LOOKING WETTER AS TIME GOES ON...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AS WELL. IF THE THICK CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH FASTER THAN EXPECTED CENTRAL AREAS MAY NOT REACH TRIPLE DIGITS EITHER. MODELS DIVERGE ON EXACT SOLUTION OF WHERE POPS WILL BE...BUT RUC HAS SHOWN NO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS NAM/ETA. VERY LITTLE 12Z GFS IN YET TO COMPARE. UPDATE SHOULD BE OUT WITHIN NEXT 15 MINUTES. 84 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006/ DISCUSSION... THE RED FLAG WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THEY WILL NOT BE CONTINUED INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF CHILDRESS TO SOUTH OF FORT SMITH AT 08Z. 88D REGIONAL LOOP SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH DUE TO LAST EVENINGS OUTFLOW AND PRESSURE RISES. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH DOWN TO A JACKSBORO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE THIS EVENING.THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/4 LATE TONIGHT AND SLIDING SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY. THE NAM FAVORS THE SAME AREA...BUT WITH MUCH LESS QPF. BY ANY TOKEN...THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CAPE FORECASTS ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND LI/S DOWN TO -4 INDICATED SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND A FEW MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE ON SATURDAY. PWAT ARE RUNNING NEAR 1.50" EAST OF I-35 AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2" ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT....THUS SLOWING MOVING STORMS WILL DUMP OUT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ALONG THEIR PATHS. THE TUTT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH WEST TEXAS. DOUBT IF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE ANY RAINFALL FOR THE WESTERN CWA. THE MASSIVE TROPICAL HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO ALLOW THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE NORTH...THEN SETTLES OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND STRENGTHENS A LITTLE FOR NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE HOT AGAIN TODAY...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND. STORM OUTFLOW WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL COOLING OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/4 SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE BACK IN CONTROL. && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ100- TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132- TXZ141-TXZ142-TXZ143. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ102-TXZ103- TXZ104-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ120-TXZ133-TXZ134. && $$ /75/05 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1024 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .UPDATE... CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES ALREADY...SO I AM LOWERING HIGHS A BIT UP THERE. DON/T THINK 100S WILL HAPPEN WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS. I AM CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTICALLY RAISING THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED A TREND OF LOOKING WETTER AS TIME GOES ON...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AS WELL. IF THE THICK CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH FASTER THAN EXPECTED CENTRAL AREAS MAY NOT REACH TRIPLE DIGITS EITHER. MODELS DIVERGE ON EXACT SOLUTION OF WHERE POPS WILL BE...BUT RUC HAS SHOWN NO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS NAM/ETA. VERY LITTLE 12Z GFS IN YET TO COMPARE. UPDATE SHOULD BE OUT WITHIN NEXT 15 MINUTES. 84 && .AVIATION... 628 AM VFR THROUGH THE FCST. WE ARE WATCHING WEAK...SLOW MOVING FRONT/BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL OK ATTM...WHICH IS PROGGED TO SINK SWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER AFTER 00Z SAT. FEEL ISOLD/SCT...HIGH- BASED TSRA WITH GSTY WNDS PSBL AFTER 03Z FROM D/FW AREA...NWD TO RED RIVER NEAR THIS BOUNDARY WITH INVERTED-V TYPE ENVIRONMENT AND HOT TEMPS TO THE S OF THE BOUDNARY. HARD TO SAY WHAT THIS BOUDARY WILL DO...BUT SEE ENOUGH TO ADD PROB30 GROUP LAST 6 HRS OF 12Z TAF FCST AROUND D/FW. GFS TRYING TO INDICATE AN MCS CLIPPING DAL/DFW SITES...BUT NOT BUYING THAT FOR NOW. OTRW...SSW WNDS 8-10 KTS...TO BACK TO THE SE AT 9-12 KTS THIS AFTN. VRB GSTS TO 35-40 KTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH ANY TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN COUNTIES THIS EVE. KACT SHD REMAIN DRY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006/ DISCUSSION... THE RED FLAG WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THEY WILL NOT BE CONTINUED INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF CHILDRESS TO SOUTH OF FORT SMITH AT 08Z. 88D REGIONAL LOOP SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH DUE TO LAST EVENINGS OUTFLOW AND PRESSURE RISES. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH DOWN TO A JACKSBORO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE THIS EVENING.THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/4 LATE TONIGHT AND SLIDING SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY. THE NAM FAVORS THE SAME AREA...BUT WITH MUCH LESS QPF. BY ANY TOKEN...THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CAPE FORECASTS ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND LI/S DOWN TO -4 INDICATED SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND A FEW MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE ON SATURDAY. PWAT ARE RUNNING NEAR 1.50" EAST OF I-35 AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2" ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT....THUS SLOWING MOVING STORMS WILL DUMP OUT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ALONG THEIR PATHS. THE TUTT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH WEST TEXAS. DOUBT IF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE ANY RAINFALL FOR THE WESTERN CWA. THE MASSIVE TROPICAL HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO ALLOW THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE NORTH...THEN SETTLES OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND STRENGTHENS A LITTLE FOR NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE HOT AGAIN TODAY...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND. STORM OUTFLOW WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL COOLING OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/4 SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE BACK IN CONTROL. && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ100- TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132- TXZ141-TXZ142-TXZ143. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ102-TXZ103- TXZ104-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ120-TXZ133-TXZ134. && $$ /75/05 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 1048 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006 FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING -RA (REMNANTS OF PREVIOUS MCS)IN THE VCNTY OF FNT SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. CURRENT FCST LOOKS...SO WL ONLY MAKE A FEW COSMETIC CHGS TO THE WORDING. SO FOR TDY... WL KEEP AN EYE ON THE TEMPS AS SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED PARTICULARLY IN THE MORE NORTHERN ZONES. PCPN CHCS GREATEST TO THE S NEAR THE FNT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 443 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006) SHORT TERM/TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...CURRENTLY SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST TO OUR NORTH...AND WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY. SHORT TERM 00Z RUN MODELS/ESPECIALLY THE NAM/WRF HAVE INITIALIZED POORLY ACRS THE ERN CONUS AND NEITHER THE GFS OR THE NAM/WRF PICKED UP ON MCS ACTIVITY ACRS WRN NC EARLIER. A FEW STRAY SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE HELD TOGETHER THRU SCNTRL VA AND LOOK TO MOVE INTO PIEDMNT CNTYS OVR THE NXT FEW HRS. OVERALL...FOR TODAY HAVE FOLLOWED RUC DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF GFS AND WRF. NNE FLOW IN LOW LVLS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MSTLY CLDY EXCEPT FOR N/NE ZONES CLOSER TO THE DRIER AIR WHERE SKIES LOOK TO BECOME PTLY SNNY AFTER INITIAL LOW CLDS MIX OUT. AS FOR TEMPS WENT A BIT COOLER THAN GDNC DUE TO THE CLDS AND NNE FLOW...MOST AREAS LOOK TO MAX OUT CLOSE TO 80F. SFC BASED INSTABALITY NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE TODAY BUT WITH MODERATELY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES ABOUT 6.5C MVG THRU LATER THIS AFTN/EVENG WITH NXT SHORTWAVE WILL STILL MENTION AT LEAST ISO THUNDER FOR MOST ZONES. POP WISE HAVE GONE DRY IN MD TO 50% SCTD ACRS SW ZONES CLOSEST TO APPCHG SHTWAVE FROM TN/OH VLY. TONIGHT...CONTD LKLY POPS IN FAR SRN ZONES FOR THE EVENG HRS AS THIS APPEARS TO BE TIME OF BEST LOW LVL CONV AND UPR DIV FROM RRQ OF DEPARTING UPR JET. FARTHER NORTH POPS ARE MUCH LWR (20-30%) AS MORE STABLE AIR WILL LIKELY HAVE MOVED IN FROM THE NORTH (AND CONTD WITH DRY FCST IN MD). GNRLY FAVORED A SOLN BETWN GFS WHICH LOOKS FAR TOO HIGH WITH THE QPF AND NAM WHICH IS TOO FAR SOUTH WITH PRECIP DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO OUR WEST. SKIES BECOME MSTLY CLR N AND PCDY SOUTH TWDS DAYBRK. SAT...ASIDE FROM LINGERING LOW CLDS EARLY MAINLY NEAR VA/NC BORDER SAT LOOKS TO BE A NICE PTLY TO MSNNY DAY WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NRML FOR MID AUGUST...HIGHS ONLY IN UPR 70S TO LWR 80S FOR THE MOST PART. SAT NGT SKIES BECOME CLR ALL ZONES AS SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLC. TEMPS MAY CHALLENGE REC LOWS AT NORMALLY COOL SBY ASOS. MOST AREAS WILL DIP INTO 50S FOR 1ST TIME IN QUITE AWHILE...GNRLY IN MID/UPR 60S ALONG SE VA/NC COAST. LONG TERM/SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STRG HIGH PRESSURE CNTRD OVER REGION SUNDAY...SLIDING OFFSHORE INTO ERLY NXT WEEK. TWEAKED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DGRS SUNDAY AND SUN NGT...BUT OTHERWISE HAVE MADE NO CHNGES AS IT LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD UNTIL TUE/WED AS NXT FRONT APPROACHES. AVIATION... WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS (3-5SM) EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF IFR OR 1-2SM VSBYS...WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART BY 13-15Z THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN AREAS OF RAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LOWER CHES BAY/MID ATLC COAST WITH THE MOIST NE FLOW. MARINE... WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HOISTED IN ALL AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SUSPECT THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL SURGE TODAY...THEN ANOTHER ONE SAT MORNING AS THE LOW DEPARTS OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND LEADS TO A SECONDARY EPISODE OF 900-800 MB COOLING ON THE BACKSIDE. NE FLOW MAY ABATE A LITTLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...HOWEVER STRONG OVER-WATER INSTBY/VIGOROUS MIXING SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS AT THE VERY LEAST NEAR THE BOTTOM END OF SCA CRITERIA. THEREFORE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SCA'S GOING THROUGH SATURDAY OVER ALL WATERS...AND THROUGH EARLY SUN OVER THE SRN CSTL WATERS..SHORT TERM /TODAY/... && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ630>633 UNTIL 4 PM SATURDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ654 UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ650-652 UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ656-658 FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM SUNDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...64 va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 130 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .FCST DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS ON TEMPS AND FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT...THEN ON PRECIP CHCS MON-TUES. LATEST SFC MAP AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS WESTERN KY WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL IN. WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS IA MOVING SLOWLY SE. IT APPEARS THAT THIS DISTURBANCE HAS SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF THE 850MB FRONT AND ANY STRONGER PUSH OF DRIER AIR IN THE 925-850MB LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM 63F ACROSS FAR NW OH TO 66F AT HUF. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN IN AND OH WHICH SUGGESTS DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TONIGHT...EXPECT CLDS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. 850MB WINDS OUT OF THE EAST MAY PROLONG BKN SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS ALL AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. A LIGHT GRADIENT WIND OF AROUND 5KTS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT ANY MORE WIDESPREAD FOG...HOWEVER, WET GROUNDS WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EVAPORATION TODAY SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR GOING FCST VALUES WHICH ARE RIGHT WITHIN A GUIDANCE BLEND. ONLY CAVEAT IS THE MIN TEMP AT IND WHICH SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES WARMER DUE TO A NE WIND. SAT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND PROVIDE A PLEASANT WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPS AND 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUGGEST NEAR 80 OR LOWER 80S SAT WHICH AGREE WITH GUIDANCE AND THE GOING FCST. SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY AS UPPER HTS BUILD WITH NEAR AVG CONDS. THE GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW THE NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION MON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FCST AS THIS SCENARIO AND TIMING IS HANDLED WELL. BEYOND TUES...LOOK FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY AND SEASONAL CONDS AS SFC AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION. && .AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS FOG/LOW STRATUS. WITH HIGH MOVING IN OVERNIGHT..RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION SETTING UP LATER TONIGHT. WITH RECENT 2 DAY RAIN TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES ON AVERAGE...THE GROUND IS PLENTY WET PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE. IF AN INVERSION SETS UP AS THE RUC FORECASTS BOTH LOW VIS AND CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT WIND WILL NOT BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO START RADIATION FOG PROCESS. 12Z MOS HAS BROUGHT WINDS DOWN TO 5KTS THEN CALM LATE TONIGHT SO THAT WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. CLOUDS ARE VERY SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. KLAF WILL CLEAR FIRST AND WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR IFR CIGS/VIS BELOW 1SM. WILL TRY AND TIME THE FOG WITH THE INVERSION STRENGTH. THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE MORE TRICKY WITH TIMING BECAUSE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR FROM THOSE SITES. .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE && $$ PUBLIC...CO AVIATION...SP in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 100 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS FOG/LOW STRATUS. WITH HIGH MOVING IN OVERNIGHT..RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION SETTING UP LATER TONIGHT. WITH RECENT 2 DAY RAIN TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES ON AVERAGE...THE GROUND IS PLENTY WET PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE. IF AN INVERSION SETS UP AS THE RUC FORECASTS BOTH LOW VIS AND CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT WIND WILL NOT BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO START RADIATION FOG PROCESS. 12Z MOS HAS BROUGHT WINDS DOWN TO 5KTS THEN CALM LATE TONIGHT SO THAT WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE. CLOUDS ARE VERY SLOWLY CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. KLAF WILL CLEAR FIRST AND WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATE FOR IFR CIGS/VIS BELOW 1SM. WILL TRY AND TIME THE FOG WITH THE INVERSION STRENGTH. THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE MORE TRICKY WITH TIMING BECAUSE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR FROM THOSE SITES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... FORECAST FOCUS WL BE ON CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TODAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY. AT 7Z A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. SHOWERS WERE OCCURING MAINLY NORTH OF I70 AND WERE ESPECIALLY HEAVY AROUND KLAF. THE PRECIP HAS SLOWLY BEGAN TO MOVE TO THE SE...BUT MAINLY HAS BEEN SITTING IN THE SAME AREAS AND HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE INCREASE. THE GFS NOT INITALIZING WELL AND HAS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. NAM LOOKING MORE LIKE THE SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...STATIONARY FRONT WL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTH. CENTRAL INDIANA WL BE IN FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET. MODELS ARE SHOWING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. WITH THESE PARAMETERS IN PLACE IN ADDITION TO FRONTOGENESIS HAVE KEPT PRECIP CHANCES IN FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S WITH PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. FRIDAY NIGHT DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE AREA AND WL ACT TO START DECREASING CLOUD COVER. WEAK CAA WL START TO LOWER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID 50S ACROS THE NORTHERN CWA TO MID 60S AROUND KHUF. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. THE NAM IS SHOWING AN INVERTED TROUGH TRYING TO SET UP FOR SATURDAY...HOWEVER AS OF NOW NOT PUTTING MUCH TRUST IN THIS FEATURE EXCEPT TO HAVE A FEW EXTRA CU ACROS THE SOUTH. DEWPOINTS WL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TO THE EAST OF A COLD FRONT THAT WL MOVE ACROS THE STATE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. FRONT AND CHANCES OF PRECIP MOVE OUT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS POINT TEMPERATURES WL STEADY OFF MAINLY IN THE MID 80S. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE && $$ PUBLIC...AB AVIATION...SALLY in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 220 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWED BY POPS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AFTER BUSTING LAST NIGHT'S MIN TEMPS BY 3 TO 7 DEGREES...WILL TRY TO DO BETTER TONIGHT. THE DEW POINTS ARE AVERAGING 2-5 DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL PROGS...AND THUS HAVE UNDER CUT TEMP GUIDANCE BY 2-4 DEGREES TONIGHT. THE MODELS INITIALIZED FAIRLY CLOSE AT 12Z...BUT THE GFS QUICKLY BECOMES MORE SATURATED THAN THE NAM OR NGM. THE NAM IS THE CLOSED TO THE RUC AT 18HRS OUT...AND THUS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER... SLOWER NAM. NONE OF THE MODELS...EVEN THE GFS...BRINGS IN ANY CONVECTION (OR STRATIFORM) PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. THEY ALL DELAY MEASURABLE PRECIP UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER ON SUNDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. PLAN ON 20 POPS IN THE FAR WEST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR A LEE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD... THEN BLANKET THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH 20 POPS AND INCREASE INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY WHEN THE FRONT PASSES. DAYS 3-7... THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROF THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE PAC NW TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER IN THE WEEKEND. ALL MODELS BUT THE 12Z GFS BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS BY 00Z MONDAY WITH CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTH OVER WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT REINFORCED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. THE FRONT SHOULD RETURN NORTH ON MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AS TROUGHINESS OUT WEST LOWERS SURFACE PRESSURES OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BY TUESDAY MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS STALLED NOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS WESTERN KS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE MAIN FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL BE THE LEE TROUGH OUT WEST WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY POPPING EACH DAY ALONG IT. OVERALL MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON THE TIMING OF THE FEATURES. ON A SIDE NOTE, THE 12Z GFS DIGS THE SHORTWAVE TROF MUCH DEEPER INTO THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH HAS GREAT SIGNIFICANCE IN REGARDS TO THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURES. HOWEVER, WILL NOT CHANGE THE ENTIRE FORECAST ON ONE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION. IN THE 8 TO 10 DAY THE CDC REFORECAST ENSEMBLES STILL POINT TO A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH LOWER HEIGHTS IN THE PAC NW AND OVER THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDWEST DURING THIS PERIOD AND THIS SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS. STATUS QUO IN THE 8 TO 10 DAY FORECAST OF ABOVE AND BELOW FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP STILL LOOKS GOOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 66 97 68 97 / 0 10 20 30 GCK 64 96 67 95 / 0 20 20 40 EHA 63 94 65 94 / 0 20 20 30 LBL 66 96 66 97 / 0 20 20 30 HYS 67 97 68 96 / 0 10 20 30 P28 69 99 72 99 / 0 10 20 20 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ FN12/27 ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 358 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THESE SHOULD FINALLY MOVE OUT EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE CLEARING ALONG WITH DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER AN INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREV FCST AS SFC HI PRES WILL BE ACRS REGION FOR SUNDAY. AS SFC HI PUSHES TO EAST ON MON...SFC FLO WILL BECOME SRLY WITH TEMPS WARMING AS MID LVL RIDGE ACRS CNTRL PLAINS EXPANDS EAST. A STRONG MID LVL S/WV WILL TRACK ACRS SRN CANADA MON AND TUES. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE...TRACKING INTO OH VLY MON NIGHT AND TUES. EXTENDED MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON FROPA TIMING...BRINGING BNDRY THRU FCST AREA LATE MON AND DURING DAY TUES WITH SCT TSTMS. LARGE SFC HI PRES WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF ACRS GRT LKS AND OH VLY IN WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT TUES NIGHT...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED THEN THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS WILL LARGELY REMAIN SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT FOR MUCH OF EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS HINTING AT AN EXPANSION OF RIDGE INTO EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS END OF FCST PERIOD. BROUGHT AFTN HIGHS BACK UP INTO U80S BY NEXT FRI...AND DOES APPEAR A RETURN TO HOTTER AND MORE HUMID WX EXISTS BY NEXT WEEKEND. RYAN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006/ AVIATION /18Z-18Z/... PCPN NR KCVG REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG AN AREA OF WEAK SFC/H8 CONVERGENCE. RUC HAS THIS AREA FINALLY WEAKENING AFT 18-02Z. WILL KEEP A TEMPO AT KLUK FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND VCSH AT KCVG/KILN. AFT 20Z...PCPN SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF TAFS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD BE SCT BY 03Z IN THE SOUTH. DRIER DEWPOINTS WORK IN FROM THE NE TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING FOG IN THE NORTH...BUT CARRIED MVFR FOG IN THE SW...WHERE THE PCPN HAS LINGERED TODAY. SCT CU SHOULD FORM AFT 15Z IN THE SW. SITES && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 201 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .AVIATION /18Z-18Z/... PCPN NR KCVG REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG AN AREA OF WEAK SFC/H8 CONVERGENCE. RUC HAS THIS AREA FINALLY WEAKENING AFT 18-02Z. WILL KEEP A TEMPO AT KLUK FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND VCSH AT KCVG/KILN. AFT 20Z...PCPN SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF TAFS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD BE SCT BY 03Z IN THE SOUTH. DRIER DEWPOINTS WORK IN FROM THE NE TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING FOG IN THE NORTH...BUT CARRIED MVFR FOG IN THE SW...WHERE THE PCPN HAS LINGERED TODAY. SCT CU SHOULD FORM AFT 15Z IN THE SW. SITES && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA ARE SLOWLY DROPPING SSE. INCREASED POPS ESPECIALLY IN THE INDIANA COUNTIES...AS THIS AREA WILL SCRAPE THROUGH THEM. NOT CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THESE SHOWERS WILL WORK...AS THE EASTERN EDGE HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND ERODING OVER THE LAST HOUR. DIDNT BRING THE INCREASED POPS EAST OF I-75. DROPPED MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE EAST AND LOWERED POPS. TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER LOOK OKAY FOR NOW. SITES PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006/ AVIATION /12Z-12Z/... CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITATION TRYING TO FILL IN. HAVE A VCSH IN KDAY AND TEMPO GROUPS AT KCVG AND KLUK FOR MVFR CONDITIONS. KCMH AND KLCK SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH DRIER AIR WORKING IN ACROSS THE NORTH. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL STAY UP A BIT OVERNIGHT...SO FG/BR SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT. JUST HAVE ADDED MVFR BR AT KCVG AND KLUK WITH THOSE LOCATIONS DUE TO MORE RAINFALL. RLG PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... PCPN TRYING TO FILL IN SOME ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THOUGH WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE. THE GFS APPEARS TOO OVERDONE WITH ITS SURFACE AND 850 LOW/LOW LEVEL JET AT 06Z BASED ON CURRENT READINGS. HOWEVER ON THE OTHER HAND...NAM-WRF APPEARS TOO UNDERDONE BASED ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING ON. AS A RESULT WILL TAKE A BIT OF A BLEND OF THE TWO...BUT LEAN CLOSER TO DRIER NAM-WRF AS THE GFS APPEARS TO BE CRANKING OUT WAY TOO MUCH PCPN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AT ANY RATE...AS WAVE PUSHES EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT OVERALL...EXPECT A MAINLY DRY NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL CLEARING TREND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME TODAY...PARTICULARLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL THEREFORE GO CLOSER TO COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THE MOST PREVALENT. THEN EXPECT TO SEE A SLOW WARM UP IN AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY. PREV DISCUSSIONS... THE FOLLOWING WAS ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006 AVIATION /06Z-06Z/... CURRENT SURFACE MAP DEPICTS NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. AN AREA OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WAS NOTED ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN THE NAM/WRF. HAVE GONE WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AND INCORPORATED LATEST RUC ANALYSIS. MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN INDIANA DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRAY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST...SO HAVE KEPT A VCSH AT KDAY AND KILN. SOME SUNRISE MVFR BR IS POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES...WITH KILN DROPPING TO IFR THIS MORNING. KCVG AND KLUK WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR SHOWERS AND BR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS BUT REMOVED VCTS AND CB MENTION THROUGH 10Z. KEPT CB MENTION AFTER SUNRISE WITH BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH ALLOWING FOR DRIER TO WORK INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE GRADUALLY BEGAN TO SCATTER OUT LOW CLOUDS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. RLG ISSUED 430 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2006 LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/ SFC HI PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND PROVIDE FOR A PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS. POLAR VORTEX WILL HOLD OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK...TRAPPED BTWN BROAD MID LVL RIDGE OVER CNTRL PLAINS AND RIDGE OVER NRN ATLC OCEAN. AS UPR LO BEGINS TO PULL NE AWAY FROM NRN NEW ENGLAND...ANOTHER FAIRLY POTENT MID LVL S/WV WILL MOVE ALONG US/CANADIAN BORDER MON AND TUES DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THRU REGION. SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH FROPA BTWN EXTENDED MODELS...SO BROUGHT CHANCE POPS INTO NRN FCST AREA MON AFTN AND ACRS ENTIRE FCST AREA MON NIGHT. FRNTL BNDRY WILL PUSH SE OF FCST AREA TUES AS ANOTHER PLEASANT CANADIAN HI PRES BUILDS INTO REGION. HI PRES WILL THEN REMAIN ACRS REGION THRU END OF FCST PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 115 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .AVIATION(18Z-18Z)... ALTHOUGH OVERALL ATMOSPHERE IS DRY...LOCAL LAKE MOISTURE GIVING WAY TO AFTERNOON CUMULUS. TOL/FDY HAVE FLIRTED WITH MVFR CEILINGS ALL MORNING AS THEY ARE EXPERIENCING A DIRECT FETCH FROM THE LAKE. WITH AFTERNOON MIXING THOUGH...CEILINGS EXPECTED TO RISE AND SKY TO BECOME SCT...AND THEN FINALLY CLEAR FOR THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY FOR ERI/CLE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE DAY SAT. WITH A DRIER MORE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECT LESS CU SAT THAN TODAY. && .SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)... UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING PORTION. ALSO WENT MOSTLY SUNNY IN NE. && .SHORT TERM (TODAY)... ADJUSTED WORDING FOR TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND THE SHOWERS THAT MAY BRUSH THE SW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AM. ALSO ADJUSTED THE WORDING OF THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST AREA. NORTHEAST FLOWS CAN BE TOUGH IN CAUSING CLOUDS IN INLAND NORTHEAST OHIO...WILL MENTION BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. THE CLOUDS OVER THE LAKE ARE NOT TOO BUBBLEY...THUS THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS SEEM VERY LOW. ALSO LOCAL WATERSPOUT SCHEME SAYS NORTHEAST FLOW IS TOUGH FOR THEM TO DEVELOP. SHORT TERM(TODAY-SUN)... COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN. THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AT 12Z WILL BE NEAR 13C AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE DAY. WILL FORECAST PARTLY CLOUDY THE ENTIRE CWA AS SOME CLOUDS BRUSHING THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM A VORT MAX THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND IN THE NORTH SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS EVEN OVER NW OHIO BECAUSE THE FLOW IS NORTHEAST. ALL THE MODELS (NGM, WRF, GFS, RUC) INDICATING A THREAT OF SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKESHORE THROUGH 14Z BECAUSE OF CONVERGENCE...WILL GO WITH A 20 POP FOR THE LAKESHORE THIS MORNING. THE CANADIAN AND LOCAL SCHEME INDICATE A WATERSPOUT THREAT BECAUSE OF COLD AIR OVER THE WARM LAKE AND SOME CONVERGENCE AS INDICATED BY RADAR AND SATELLITE. THE CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO BE DECREASING. THE THREAT SHOULD END BY NOON AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN. MAY MENTION A WATERSPOUT THREAT IN HWO. CLEARING TONIGHT AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE WARMS SOME AND DECREASES THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TO ABOUT 10C DURING THE NIGHT. WITH THE LOCATION OF THE HIGH AND THE AIRMASS DRYING OUT SOME IT WILL BE OR BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. PLENTY OF SUN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MAV GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY OK...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...A LITTLE WARMER SATURDAY AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT FROM THE MAV MAY BE A LITTLE TOO WARM IN THE EAST AND TOO COOL AT TOL. && .LONG TERM (MON-THU)... THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT FOR MONDAY THAN THE GFS. NONE THE LESS THE THREAT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD BE OK. ACCORDING TO THE GFS THE CAPE AND LIS NOT THAT BAD. WILL MONITOR SPC DAY4-8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN FOR THE EXTD WITH ONLY ONE COLD FRONT TO DEAL WITH MON AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUE-THU. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .OH...NONE. .PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/LW LONG TERM...OUDEMAN/KIELTYKA AVIATION...OUDEMAN oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 213 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .DISCUSSION... WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS STARTING ALREADY...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE NAM/ETA HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON THE CONVECTION. THE RUC DEVELOPED THE PRECIP FROM ABOUT UVALDE...COMANCHE...SHERMAN...WHICH TURNS OUT TO BE TOO FAR WEST AND SOUTH. GFS CAUGHT THE SHOWERS STILL IN WEST TEXAS THROUGH OKLAHOMA...BUT DID NOT DO A GOOD JOB ON THE NEW INITIATION IN NORTH TEXAS. WITH THAT BACKGROUND...I HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM FOR THE EVENING AND SATURDAY PRECIPITATION. GFS SEGMENTS THE OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY RAIN INTO DISCRETE BULLSEYES AND THAT APPEARS TO BE ITS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEM SHOWING UP AGAIN. NO MODELS HANDLE SUMMER CONVECTIVE PRECIP VERY ACCURATELY...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON ENDING ALL THE RAIN AT MIDNIGHT. HEAVIER CLOUDS AND HOPEFULLY SOME RAIN WILL KEEP SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 90S SOUTH. HIGHS NEAR 100 RETURN ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT A ONE DAY BREAK IS WELCOME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 95 77 98 / 20 20 20 10 WACO, TX 75 96 77 99 / 10 20 20 10 PARIS, TX 75 92 74 96 / 30 30 20 10 DENTON, TX 76 95 77 98 / 30 20 20 10 MCKINNEY, TX 73 94 74 97 / 30 20 20 10 DALLAS, TX 74 94 75 98 / 20 20 20 10 TERRELL, TX 75 93 75 97 / 20 20 20 10 CORSICANA, TX 75 95 75 99 / 10 20 20 10 TEMPLE, TX 70 95 73 97 / 10 20 20 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ100- TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132- TXZ141-TXZ142-TXZ143. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ102-TXZ103- TXZ104-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ120-TXZ133-TXZ134. && $$ /84 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 155 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .AVIATION... AMENDING METROPLEX TAFS TO BUMP UP TIMING 2-3 HOURS SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. TR.92 1230 PM AVIATION DISCUSSION... AS FRONT STALLS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM MIXING OUT AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WILL BRING ISO-SCT STORMS SOUTH INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 0Z. WILL CARRY TEMPO FOR TSRA FROM 1-4Z FOR DAL/DFW...AND AN HOUR EARLIER FOR AFW/FTW. BELIEVE LOSS OF HEATING WILL CAUSE ACTIVITY TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...KEPT TAFS VFR AT ALL SITES WITH SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTH. HAVE KEPT ALL SITES DRY SAT MORNING...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY RAIN CHANCES UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE. TR.92 && .UPDATE... WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS AGAIN IN THE WEST THROUGH NORTHEAST. RAPID CU GROWTH AND SHOWER/TSTM INITIATION ALREADY BEGINNING TO OCCUR. 84 && .PREV UPDATE... 1030 AM CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES ALREADY...SO I AM LOWERING HIGHS A BIT UP THERE. DON/T THINK 100S WILL HAPPEN WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS. I AM CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTICALLY RAISING THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED A TREND OF LOOKING WETTER AS TIME GOES ON...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AS WELL. IF THE THICK CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH FASTER THAN EXPECTED CENTRAL AREAS MAY NOT REACH TRIPLE DIGITS EITHER. MODELS DIVERGE ON EXACT SOLUTION OF WHERE POPS WILL BE...BUT RUC HAS SHOWN NO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS NAM/ETA. VERY LITTLE 12Z GFS IN YET TO COMPARE. UPDATE SHOULD BE OUT WITHIN NEXT 15 MINUTES. 84 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006/ DISCUSSION... THE RED FLAG WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THEY WILL NOT BE CONTINUED INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF CHILDRESS TO SOUTH OF FORT SMITH AT 08Z. 88D REGIONAL LOOP SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH DUE TO LAST EVENINGS OUTFLOW AND PRESSURE RISES. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH DOWN TO A JACKSBORO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE THIS EVENING.THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/4 LATE TONIGHT AND SLIDING SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY. THE NAM FAVORS THE SAME AREA...BUT WITH MUCH LESS QPF. BY ANY TOKEN...THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CAPE FORECASTS ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND LI/S DOWN TO -4 INDICATED SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND A FEW MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE ON SATURDAY. PWAT ARE RUNNING NEAR 1.50" EAST OF I-35 AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2" ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT....THUS SLOWING MOVING STORMS WILL DUMP OUT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ALONG THEIR PATHS. THE TUTT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH WEST TEXAS. DOUBT IF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE ANY RAINFALL FOR THE WESTERN CWA. THE MASSIVE TROPICAL HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO ALLOW THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE NORTH...THEN SETTLES OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND STRENGTHENS A LITTLE FOR NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE HOT AGAIN TODAY...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND. STORM OUTFLOW WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL COOLING OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/4 SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE BACK IN CONTROL. && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ100- TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132- TXZ141-TXZ142-TXZ143. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ102-TXZ103- TXZ104-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ120-TXZ133-TXZ134. && $$ /75/05 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 144 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .UPDATE... WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS AGAIN IN THE WEST THROUGH NORTHEAST. RAPID CU GROWTH AND SHOWER/TSTM INITIATION ALREADY BEGINNING TO OCCUR. 84 && .AVIATION... 1230 PM AS FRONT STALLS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM MIXING OUT AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WILL BRING ISO-SCT STORMS SOUTH INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 0Z. WILL CARRY TEMPO FOR TSRA FROM 1-4Z FOR DAL/DFW...AND AN HOUR EARLIER FOR AFW/FTW. BELIEVE LOSS OF HEATING WILL CAUSE ACTIVITY TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...KEPT TAFS VFR AT ALL SITES WITH SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTH. HAVE KEPT ALL SITES DRY SAT MORNING...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY RAIN CHANCES UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE. TR.92 && .PREV UPDATE... 1030 AM CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES ALREADY...SO I AM LOWERING HIGHS A BIT UP THERE. DON/T THINK 100S WILL HAPPEN WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS. I AM CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTICALLY RAISING THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED A TREND OF LOOKING WETTER AS TIME GOES ON...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AS WELL. IF THE THICK CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH FASTER THAN EXPECTED CENTRAL AREAS MAY NOT REACH TRIPLE DIGITS EITHER. MODELS DIVERGE ON EXACT SOLUTION OF WHERE POPS WILL BE...BUT RUC HAS SHOWN NO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS NAM/ETA. VERY LITTLE 12Z GFS IN YET TO COMPARE. UPDATE SHOULD BE OUT WITHIN NEXT 15 MINUTES. 84 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006/ DISCUSSION... THE RED FLAG WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THEY WILL NOT BE CONTINUED INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF CHILDRESS TO SOUTH OF FORT SMITH AT 08Z. 88D REGIONAL LOOP SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH DUE TO LAST EVENINGS OUTFLOW AND PRESSURE RISES. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH DOWN TO A JACKSBORO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE THIS EVENING.THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/4 LATE TONIGHT AND SLIDING SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY. THE NAM FAVORS THE SAME AREA...BUT WITH MUCH LESS QPF. BY ANY TOKEN...THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CAPE FORECASTS ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND LI/S DOWN TO -4 INDICATED SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND A FEW MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE ON SATURDAY. PWAT ARE RUNNING NEAR 1.50" EAST OF I-35 AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2" ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT....THUS SLOWING MOVING STORMS WILL DUMP OUT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ALONG THEIR PATHS. THE TUTT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH WEST TEXAS. DOUBT IF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE ANY RAINFALL FOR THE WESTERN CWA. THE MASSIVE TROPICAL HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO ALLOW THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE NORTH...THEN SETTLES OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND STRENGTHENS A LITTLE FOR NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE HOT AGAIN TODAY...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND. STORM OUTFLOW WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL COOLING OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/4 SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE BACK IN CONTROL. && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ100- TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132- TXZ141-TXZ142-TXZ143. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ102-TXZ103- TXZ104-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ120-TXZ133-TXZ134. && $$ /75/05 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1230 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .AVIATION... AS FRONT STALLS IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND AHEAD OF WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS FROM MIXING OUT AS MUCH AS YESTERDAY AND CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY. CU FIELD BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MID AFTERNOON. STORM MOTION WILL BRING ISO-SCT STORMS SOUTH INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 0Z. WILL CARRY TEMPO FOR TSRA FROM 1-4Z FOR DAL/DFW...AND AN HOUR EARLIER FOR AFW/FTW. BELIEVE LOSS OF HEATING WILL CAUSE ACTIVITY TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...KEPT TAFS VFR AT ALL SITES WITH SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTH. HAVE KEPT ALL SITES DRY SAT MORNING...AS CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY RAIN CHANCES UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF CYCLE. TR.92 && .UPDATE... CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES ALREADY...SO I AM LOWERING HIGHS A BIT UP THERE. DON/T THINK 100S WILL HAPPEN WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS. I AM CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTICALLY RAISING THE POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED A TREND OF LOOKING WETTER AS TIME GOES ON...FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AS WELL. IF THE THICK CLOUDS MOVE SOUTH FASTER THAN EXPECTED CENTRAL AREAS MAY NOT REACH TRIPLE DIGITS EITHER. MODELS DIVERGE ON EXACT SOLUTION OF WHERE POPS WILL BE...BUT RUC HAS SHOWN NO RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS NAM/ETA. VERY LITTLE 12Z GFS IN YET TO COMPARE. UPDATE SHOULD BE OUT WITHIN NEXT 15 MINUTES. 84 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006/ DISCUSSION... THE RED FLAG WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THEY WILL NOT BE CONTINUED INTO SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF CHILDRESS TO SOUTH OF FORT SMITH AT 08Z. 88D REGIONAL LOOP SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTH DUE TO LAST EVENINGS OUTFLOW AND PRESSURE RISES. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH DOWN TO A JACKSBORO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE THIS EVENING.THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/4 LATE TONIGHT AND SLIDING SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY. THE NAM FAVORS THE SAME AREA...BUT WITH MUCH LESS QPF. BY ANY TOKEN...THIS IS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. CAPE FORECASTS ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND LI/S DOWN TO -4 INDICATED SOME STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND A FEW MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE ON SATURDAY. PWAT ARE RUNNING NEAR 1.50" EAST OF I-35 AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2" ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT....THUS SLOWING MOVING STORMS WILL DUMP OUT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ALONG THEIR PATHS. THE TUTT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH WEST TEXAS. DOUBT IF THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE ANY RAINFALL FOR THE WESTERN CWA. THE MASSIVE TROPICAL HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO ALLOW THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE NORTH...THEN SETTLES OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AND STRENGTHENS A LITTLE FOR NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE HOT AGAIN TODAY...THEN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND. STORM OUTFLOW WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL COOLING OVER THE NORTHEAST 1/4 SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE BACK IN CONTROL. && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ100- TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132- TXZ141-TXZ142-TXZ143. HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ102-TXZ103- TXZ104-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ120-TXZ133-TXZ134. && $$ /75/05 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 210 PM CDT FRI AUG 11 2006 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON ERODING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...THEN ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRATOCUMULUS DECK HAS ERODED OVER FAR SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH A THICKER CLOUD COVER NORTH OF THE WISCONSIN RIVER. EVEN THERE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A THINNING TREND. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...BUT RUC SOUNDING STILL SHOW SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE BELOW DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL INVERSION WEST OF MADISON. WITH ANY CLEARING SKIES THERE WOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL OF FOG...MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW AREAS AS MID LEVELS DRY. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE UPPER RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. MCS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TNT OVER THE NRN PLAINS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE SAT AM OVER MINNESOTA...OR PUSH OFF WELL TO OUR NORTH...WHILE DRY AIR MASS HOLDS OVER WI. SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WITH COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN ONTARIO AND MINNESOTA. PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHES 2 INCHES ALONG COLD FRONT WITH MAINLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FRONT ALSO COMING THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT/MON AM DURING COOLEST PERIOD SO SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON COVERAGE OF RAIN. 40-50 POPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR NOW. FOR TUE THROUGH THU....UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN AS AN UPPER TROF OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. NO RAIN EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY. MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ HENTZ wi