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000 FXUS04 KWBC 090947 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 547 AM EDT MON MAR 09 2009 FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION VALID MAR 09/1200 UTC THRU MAR 12/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR THE 06Z MDL RUNS WERE IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS..SO MADE ONLY VRY MINOR CHGS TO THE PRELIM DAY 1 QPF. DAY 1... ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ANOTHER ROUND OF LCLY HVY TO PSBLY EXCESSIVE RNFL IS LIKELY FOR PTNS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST THIS PD..AND ESP MON NGT. ALTHO THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFS IN HOW THE MDLS ARE HANDLING THE WRN U.S. H5 TROF DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES THIS PD..THEY ALL AGREE THAT THE MID/UPR LVL FLO WL BACK SUBSTANTIALLY OVR THE CNTRL STATES MON NGT..LEADING TO A RAPID INCREASE IN OVRRNG RNFL/CNVCTN FM PTNS OF ERN KS/ERN OK ENEWD INTO THE LWR GTLKS. A STRENGTHENING SSWLY/SWLY LLJ AOA 50KTS IS FCST TO DVLP LTR MON AFTN UP THRU THE SRN PLAINS..AND CONT MON NGT UP INTO THE MIDWEST/LWR GTLKS..BRINGING PWS ABV 1.25 INCHES INTO THE RETREATING WRMFNTL BNDRY. THIS WAA/MSTR ADVECTION WL SUPPORT THE EXPANDING RNFL REGIME..AS ALL OF THE MDL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. AS A MATTER OF FACT..MDL QPFS ARE ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT..AT LEAST IN FCSTG THE HVIEST RNFL AXIS FM ERN KS ENEWD INTO NRN IL/NRN IN..ALTHO THE NAM AMTS MAY BE A LTL ON THE LOW SIDE. THUS..LEANED TWDS THE SLGTLY HVIER GFS/12Z ECMWF HIRES QPF SOLNS.. AND XPC AT LEAST A BAND OF 1-2+ INCH RNFL TOTALS..WITH SOME ISOLD 3 INCH AMTS PSBL. ...NEW ENG... LATEST MDL SOLNS ARE IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE ERN GTLKS H5 S/WV GENLY EWD THRU NY STATE AND SERN NEW ENG ON MON..UNDERNEATH CANADIAN MARITIMES MID/UPR LVL VORTEX. WHAT IS LEFT OF ANY GULF AND OR ATLC INFLO INTO SRN NEW ENG AHD OF THIS S/WV WL BE PASSING OFFSHORE VRY ERY IN THE PD..SO MSTR AVBLTY WON`T BE AS GREAT WITH THIS SYS AS WAS THE CASE YDA. HOWEVER..SYS WL HAVE COMPACT BUT IMPRESSIVE HGT FALLS/MID LVL DYNAMICS/FORCING WITH IT..SO THAT AT LEAST SOME 0.25-0.50 INCH WTR EQUIVALENTS ARE LIKELY GENLY ALG AND N OF ITS TRACK FM ERN NY STATE EWD THRU SERN NEW ENG. MANUAL QPF GENLY TOOK A BLEND OF THE HVIER NAM/SLGTLY LIGHTER GFS QPF SOLNS. ...WRN STATES... THE REGIME OVR THE WRN STATES WL BE DOMINATED BY THE H5 TROF DIGGING SSEWD FM THE PAC NW/NRN GT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL SRN ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PD..WITH THE LATEST MDL SOLNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LEAST ON THE LRG SCALE. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE MID LVL HGT FALLS/DYNAMICS AND LRG SCALE LIFT WL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PCPN..MSTLY SNOW..THRUOUT THE CNTRL GT BASIN AND ROCKIES. ALTHO MSTR NOT THAT GREAT..STG LIFT AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WL SUPPORT SOME MDTLY HVY SNOWS..AND PREFERRED THE HVIER NAM QPF OVR THE WASATCH AND THE HVIER GFS QPF OVR THE MTNS OF CNTRL CO. OTRW..MDL QPFS WERE RATHER SIMILAR ELSEWHERE IN THE W..AND SEEMED REASONABLE. DAY 2... SPLIT FLOW ALOFT FEATURES A SHEARED SRN STREAM VORT ROUNDING THE CREST OF ERN U.S. RIDGE AS A PARTIALLY PHASED NRN/ARCTIC STREAM AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY. THE RESULT ON DAY 2 WILL BE TWO AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT QPF AMOUNTS...ONE RAIN AND THE OTHER FROZEN PCPN. ...OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST... AFOREMENTIONED SRN STREAM FEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THRU THE NORTHEAST AS IT ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE ERN U.S. RIDGE WHILE AN ACTIVE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD FROM THE OH VLY. DEEP SWLY FLOW ORIGINATING NEAR THE WRN GOMEX WILL TRANSPORT AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH MDT/HVY AMTS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OH VLY INTO THE LWR GREAT LAKES REGION. GFS IS SHOWING BOTH LOW LVL MOISTURE FLUX AND PW VALUES SEVERAL STD DEV ABOVE THE NORM HERE. AREAL AVGS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FURTHER EXACERBATE CURRENT FLOODING CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS REGION. LEANED MORE CLOSELY TOWARD THE ECMWF HERE. NEAR THE END OF THE DAY 1 PERIOD BOTH THE NCEP MODELS DEPICT A STRONGER WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BNDRY THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE SHEARED NATURE OF THE MID LVL SYSTEM. ...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES... THE MULTIPLE STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT FROM THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING AND LARGE SCALE UPPER LIFT THRU THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WHERE SOME DEEP LOW LVL MOISTURE NEAR THE ACTIVE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAWN NWD ALONG A VERY WELL DEFINED INVERTED SURFACE TROF. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE FORMIDABLE MID/UPR FORCING WILL DEVELOP A SOLID SHIELD OF MDT TO HVY SNOWFALL WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY A 0.25 TO 1 INCH FROM ERN ND/SD ACROSS MN AND INTO NRN WISC AND U.P OF MICH. REFER TO THE HPC WINTER WX SUITE FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE THREATS FOR HVY SNOW/ICE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DAY 3... ...GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST... THE MULTIPLE STREAMS OVER THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY WILL PHASE OVER ERN CANADA...AS DEEP SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AND A POWERFUL COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE NERN QUARTER OF THE U.S. AS THE WRN EDGE OF AN INTENSE COMMA HEAD OF SNOWFALL LIFTS OUT OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD... A SWATH OF LGT/MDT RAINS NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT ARE EXPECTED TO PRESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS PREVIOUSLY NOTED FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE SRN PLAINS. AS MORE SRN STREAM DYNAMICS APPROACH WRN TX...EXPECT HVY RAINFALL/CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FROM THE TX HILL AND BIG BEND COUNTRY THRU THE ARKLATEX AND INTO THE TN VLY. WITH PWS REMAINING QUITE MOIST ACROSS THIS REGION AND FAVORABLE UPR JET DYNAMICS FURTHER BOLSTERING THE LIFT ALONG THE BNDRY...AREAL AVGS OF ANYWHERE FROM 1-3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION. LEANED MORE CLOSELY TOWARD THE ECMWF ACROSS THIS REGION. NAM HAS THE SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF/CMC GLOBAL/UKMET FOR A STRONGER TROF THAN THE GFS SHOWS MOVING ACROSS NWRN MEX/SWRN U.S. WED...BUT IT HOLDS ONTO IT LONGER THAN THOSE MODELS AND THE NAM HAS NO SUPPORT FOR THE STRONG COMPACT VORT IT BRINGS INTO WRN TEX THU MORNING. TERRY/PEREIRA GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 10/12Z 0.01 518887 517882 516880 511877 507877 503880 497885 494889 492893 482900 477906 474907 471904 470894 469884 465875 461871 457868 453865 450860 446854 443849 440843 439837 436830 433825 424816 420814 414814 401819 394823 388828 381836 379843 378849 377862 377869 378874 377881 377886 376897 372909 368922 364930 358939 353946 345955 333973 318989 303004 300008 297010 294013 293019 294026 297031 300033 302032 306030 315023 322015 328008 337002 360998 376992 383989 391987 402976 409969 413964 417963 425970 428972 428975 426982 426988 429001 431007 432016 431023 429030 415046 411049 404050 393056 384061 381068 373061 367059 364054 349040 344038 340037 336039 335043 335047 331049 322048 319047 316049 313048 310044 307043 304045 297052 296056 295060 296063 304065 307066 309068 311073 310078 308082 303090 305096 308101 312104 318107 322109 328110 336112 340111 342109 350090 356084 358078 361075 364075 365077 367082 373094 376098 379100 381099 385097 389099 389105 386108 375114 365118 362121 358126 358132 361136 364139 367143 371147 376151 383160 385165 386173 389181 388186 384189 382192 382196 387201 393203 398203 404201 421190 428193 432190 436188 438191 440197 442201 444202 454197 462187 466184 471184 474186 479190 481194 481197 481200 477201 468205 465205 461208 450210 446212 440211 432210 428206 423206 423213 420221 418229 414231 407236 404240 403244 409248 415250 422253 429254 441254 453252 464251 471253 479252 482254 486258 493266 496266 498261 497254 493240 495238 499239 502237 504231 505220 505214 505208 506204 508197 510193 514191 519191 522186 522178 520172 518166 514158 507151 502146 500140 498131 496123 492118 488115 482117 478120 475118 473111 469101 465094 464089 463082 463077 465067 468054 470040 472031 473025 474021 474016 474006 477994 483982 495958 500948 503940 505934 508920 512908 517897 518887 0.01 463751 460739 457727 453716 449705 444695 440688 434679 430673 427668 423665 418660 412658 406658 400660 397662 393666 391673 391681 392689 393696 395708 397715 399735 400743 402753 407767 408770 406775 402781 393792 392795 393797 396799 400798 403795 410794 416796 423800 427802 432802 435799 440794 447792 455791 458790 462782 463773 463764 463751 0.01 481147 473142 469134 466129 465126 456122 443121 438120 436122 431128 427137 426145 427151 429159 432163 433168 437176 440178 442178 442174 438170 437167 435160 434150 436143 439141 446146 450146 453143 459139 464138 467140 470141 474146 481147 0.01 299088 298084 296080 294077 291074 287072 283071 277071 275072 270075 270081 272085 274088 277090 282093 288092 293091 298091 299088 0.25 437713 434702 430691 424682 419677 414673 409671 405673 402677 401683 403694 405701 408712 413721 422733 423738 423740 420744 418748 420753 422754 427751 428742 432735 435728 437718 437713 0.25 477217 482218 487217 487214 486212 483211 477211 476214 477217 0.25 491171 491166 490165 487162 484161 484160 482159 479157 476156 473155 470157 469158 467162 467163 466166 466167 468170 469171 472172 475172 477174 480174 483174 486175 487174 489173 491171 0.25 487939 488932 485927 480933 475940 470948 468956 466966 464975 464983 467982 472975 476968 480960 482953 486944 487939 0.25 462225 465221 464217 461216 458216 452217 449218 443217 439218 433220 431224 432230 434233 437234 443232 446232 451230 455227 459226 462225 0.25 459034 460028 460022 460016 459013 457010 449023 444029 439036 435044 433048 421057 418060 414061 407063 401065 395069 391068 388071 387074 385078 385083 391087 394089 399088 403089 405091 406097 405102 404107 401110 388115 383119 384123 387123 395121 399125 404126 407125 414123 420120 425115 438111 442109 443103 443092 444087 446084 452080 452067 453058 457045 459034 0.25 429860 426849 422841 420839 415838 406841 401847 397855 392872 388888 384905 382913 379921 372935 364948 358957 348974 346979 345982 347983 352983 372979 379977 387973 393969 399964 404958 408953 427925 430916 431913 431906 429895 430884 429860 0.25 425099 424097 423095 421094 418093 416095 415096 414099 414103 414107 415108 418108 418107 421104 422103 424102 425099 0.50 420689 413682 411686 415697 417701 421706 425705 423696 420689 0.50 425873 425862 422852 418846 413845 408848 404854 399867 395881 391895 388910 386917 384922 378935 371946 365958 360970 361973 364973 372972 384969 396961 401956 405950 411939 417927 420920 421913 423905 424895 425883 425873 0.50 415118 411119 409119 408117 408114 408110 410110 412114 415118 0.50 413072 412069 408066 404067 400073 397076 398079 401079 405079 408075 410073 412072 413072 1.00 420871 418864 416856 412855 409859 405869 402878 397899 394911 390919 384933 375951 372957 372960 373961 377963 389958 402946 406936 410926 416905 419884 420871 1.50 388931 383942 381947 381951 382953 384954 388953 394949 399944 405934 408923 411906 412892 412879 412874 411872 408877 407886 404894 399906 394920 393922 388931 2.00 391946 397941 403930 404923 403917 401916 398917 395926 391935 387941 387944 391946 24HR QP VT 11/12Z 0.01 535859 533845 531834 528822 525808 521801 518792 508779 499771 490764 486761 484757 483752 479735 478730 474726 471722 468719 464717 456713 451711 446707 438702 431699 415694 408691 403691 397691 390696 387703 386707 388712 389719 389725 390733 391740 391755 390780 388792 385802 377822 366840 358855 353868 348881 345886 341893 335902 322918 315927 308934 301941 295947 290956 291964 293966 296965 304959 310952 315946 321942 322943 322949 321954 319960 315966 308975 301985 287024 280032 271036 269042 270048 279053 272060 271064 272068 272072 270076 267084 268087 270090 275092 283091 288088 292084 296079 299067 302055 304049 301045 301039 303032 307023 310021 313021 320020 322019 323015 323008 324996 326992 330989 335983 342976 348969 354964 359959 364957 371956 377952 382947 385944 389944 395946 399949 403953 406960 408965 409976 409985 409989 406003 405017 406024 409030 414040 415053 398053 390056 386058 381058 367057 364058 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415750 415754 413759 410767 407784 403802 398816 395834 392842 391851 390854 392861 390870 384883 382892 380897 380902 383907 386908 390906 395905 401904 404901 406896 412883 421867 425861 427852 431834 432825 434817 439809 442801 447785 448778 1.00 492901 492896 490893 487889 483886 479885 476889 474894 474903 474912 477920 479923 484923 487920 489915 490906 492901 1.00 437789 436780 432776 425776 420778 417782 414790 410798 409807 406826 404837 403846 401866 400871 403870 408863 411862 415857 418852 420839 421830 423821 426812 430803 434795 437789 1.50 422804 423796 421796 419801 420802 419806 422806 422804 1.50 412850 411849 410851 412851 412850 24HR QP VT 12/12Z 0.01 500662 493643 488629 484621 481617 474610 470607 466606 459604 452603 443604 436606 430609 425612 417619 388649 378660 372667 367677 364685 361695 359704 355721 354727 353736 353745 354751 358760 361765 362771 363781 363790 365798 362806 358815 345846 338862 332873 322887 316901 310920 303936 298943 294948 281959 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443658 434652 426649 422648 420648 414650 410652 405655 400661 397666 396670 395677 396682 400683 401686 403698 405707 408715 416724 419732 421741 428755 432757 437755 440752 442746 445732 448729 451728 457725 460722 462719 464713 465707 464699 472681 0.25 363875 362871 357867 352869 345876 339883 329899 322914 314931 307948 299964 295971 290977 284985 279992 276998 275007 276018 280027 285032 293035 299035 305034 312029 320016 332000 336993 340985 344975 347966 353948 356937 358927 361909 364890 364879 363875 0.50 443704 440697 436693 433689 429683 424678 421676 418677 415685 414691 414699 415705 417710 423714 428718 433722 436723 439721 442719 443715 443706 443704 0.50 357899 357892 355887 353885 348887 344890 339897 330910 324922 317935 312948 305962 299973 290985 286990 283997 281005 280013 281019 287024 294026 302024 308020 313016 322006 331995 335988 339980 344968 349951 353936 356917 357902 357899 1.00 352918 350908 348901 344903 340907 332919 327928 316950 310964 305973 292993 289000 287005 288013 289015 292017 297017 301017 306014 311010 315006 323996 329987 336974 340964 345951 349939 351926 352918 1.50 347927 346919 340919 335922 332926 328934 323942 318953 315960 306979 296996 294002 294007 297011 300011 308007 315000 321992 326984 335967 340956 344946 347934 347927 2.00 343934 342930 338930 333933 326945 322951 319956 314970 309982 302995 301997 299006 304004 308002 317993 323982 330970 337957 341945 343934 $$
