OCTOBEB 1956 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW 363 THE WEATHER AND CIRCULATION OF OCTOBER 1956' Including a Discussion of the Relationship of Mean 700-mb. Height Anomalies to Sea Level Flow HARRY F. HAWKINS, JR. Extended Forecast Section, U. S. Weather Bureau, Washington, D. C. 1. WEEKLY CIRCULATION STATES RELATED TO DROUGHT RELIEF As October began, critical drought conditions prevailed over most of Texas, the Central Plains, and southeastern Rocky Mountain States. Moisture deficiencies, par- ticularly during the growing season, had mounted to record proportions in some areas; e. g., western Texas was already in its sixth year of drought [ll]. Unirrigated crops had been a failure, pastureland of little use, and there was insufficient moisture for germination of seed for winter small grains. First week.-Salient details of the first week in October are pictured in figure 1. Over North America the gross features of a ridge in the West and a trough in the East continued, as in September, to be the overriding charac- teristics [3]. Warmth predominated over the United States with ridge conditions along the eastern Rockies (fig. la) and heights well above normal aloft. The eastern North American trough was stronger than normal and off the coast in the north, although it lay inland over the Appalachians in the south. At sea level (fig. lb), a maritime high pressure ridge extended from the Far Northwest to the Central Plains. With the exception of extreme eastern Texas and central California, no precipi- tation of note occurred west of the Mississippi-Ohio Valleys(fig. Id). Widespread rains in the East were due to cyclonic activity in the Appalachian trough. The rather unseasonal California precipitation was associated with entry of a coId front into the closed California Low shown in figure la. No appreciable drought reliefwas experienced in central United States. Second week.-Significant changes in circulation became manifest toward mid-month. During the last five days of this period (fig. 2a and b) mean ridge conditions a t 700 mb. moved rapidly northeastward toward the central Appalachians. The closedLow off the California coast (Sg. la) was gradually transformed into a vigorous polar trough. The entire west coast wasnow subjected to the effects of westerly perturbations which gradually extended their area of influence to lower United States latitudes. In the fast westerly band across the North Pacific (cf. I See Oharts I-XVII following p. 377 for analyzed climatological data for the month. 700-mb. and sea level patterns in fig.2) disturbances travelled rapidly eastward. Although major centers passed into central Canada (Chart X), trailing fronts and secondary centers brought cold air and precipitation into the Northwest. Toward the end of this period, an upper- levelcyclonic circulation worked eastward at lower latitudes to the midcontinent and in concert with the frontal advance of cold air, effected a meridional release of precipitation which fell in a swath from southern Texas to the western Lakes (fig. 2d). While these welcome rains fell in the Midwest, the East was enjoying one of its famous spells of fine autumn weather. This resulted from eastward motion of the upper-level ridge (noted above) in conjunction with a cold Canadian High at sea level. The High swept down out of Canada on the 9th (Chart IX) and passed eastward into New England. The upper-level ridge came eastward during this period and intensification a t both levels took place from the southwestern Appalachians into New England. Dynamic anticyclogenesis was apparently in- volved in the maximum sea level pressure (daily) of 1040 mb. noted in New England on the 12th. Although the high center passed off eastward, ridge conditions were maintained over much of the East and in the almost stagnant circulation the cumulatory effects of industrial pollution of the air were noted in a number of eastern cities. In general, however, crisp cool nights and hazy autumn days were the order, except in those more southerly areas where onshore easterly flow to the south of the ridge line brought cloudiness and precipitation (note Florida, fig. 2d). Simultaneously the mid-United States was warmed by return flow to the rear of the High, but the East remained below normal due to the initial low temperatures of the Canadian air. Third week.-Further extension of weak westerly influ- ence into central and southeastern United States was noted during the third week. (See fig. 3a for latter part of week.) Most noteworthy event was the slow movement across the southern United States of an upper-level cyclonic cir- culation which spread precipitation from New Mexico eastward. Central and southern Texas received 1 to 2 inches generally, and temporary local drought relief was accomplished(fig. 3d). Heavy amounts of rainfall were 364 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW OCTOBER 1956 FIGURE 1.-(a) and (b) 5-day mean 700-mb. and sea level charts showing continuation of September pattern of mean ridge west of Continental Divide with mean trough along or off the east coast. (c) and (d) show continuation of September's temperature and precipitation regime with no drought relief in central United States. FIGURE 2.-Major changes in circulation pattern took place toward middle of month. Development of west coast trough and rapid motion of mean ridge into Yortheast (a) and building of dynamic anticyclone in New England (b) brought changes in temperature regime, (c) and first Midwest drought relief (d). OCTOBER 1956 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW 365 Temperature departure ,? FIGURE 4.-(a) and (b) show an intensification of the new pattern which first emerged in figure 2. Fresh cold air from the north Pacific was swept through the trough to the Divide (c) as pre- cipitation spread eastward. Note rain-shadow over much of drought area (d), with precipitation in Mississippi Valley in region removed from foehn components (a). 366 M O N T H L Y W E A T H OCTOBEB 1956 FIGURE 5.-Mean 700-mb. height contours and departures from normal (both in tens of feet) for October 2-31, 1956. Abnormal Pacificr ridge led to strong development of west coast trough and complete suppression of east coast trough activity except in Florida. also noted in the far Northwest, with strong onshore flow achieved during a momentary relaxation of the New Eng- or trailing fronts providing daily rains. land blocking as a fresh cold surge moved in. The storm Anticyclonic circulation maintained itself over New left two or more inches of precipitation along most of the England (fig.3b) as two new migratory Highs entered coast from Florida to southern New Jersey. St. Cloud, this area during the week (Chart IX). This continued Fla., reported 17.30 in. the regional circulation pattern established the preceding Temperatures were generally warm during this third week,whichwas reintensified during the last week(fig. week.Aninflux of marine air accompanying the storm 4a,b). Early in the third week a “semitropical” Low noted above and rapid passage of Highs off the coast re- formed near Cuba in the easterlies well south of the High stored above normal conditions to most of the East (fig. over New England. The Low moved up along the Florida 3c). In the West, the major trough was off the coast, and coast and turned abruptly eastward only after reaching Pacific air from a more southerly and warmer source Chesapeake Bay on the 18th (Chart X). This turn was moderated previously cool conditions. I \ OCTOBEB 1956 MONTHLYWEATHERREVIEW 367 Fourth week.-During this period a return to, and in- tensification of, the general circulation type of the second week was noted. The west coast trough and New England Highbecame stronger than before(fig. 4a and b). This was part of a general increase in amplitude of the mid- latitude wave system (fig. 4a) and a marked decline in zonalwesterlies from what had been a typical October high index. Below normal temperatures again dominated the West (fig. 4c), as the eastern Pacific trough came eastward and great quantities of cold North Pacific air were swept inland. Precipitation (fig. 4d) extended from the Mexi- can to the Canadian border in the West, with greatest amounts in the Northwest, where heights were below nor- mal and cyclonic activity most marked. Again precipita- tion spread eastward as westerly perturbations were prop- agated downstream. A prelude to winter couldbeseen in the storm of the 23d to 24th which left up to 2 feet of snow in the northern Cascades; 19 inches at Alta, Utah; lesser amounts over Colorado and Wyoming; and 6 inches over the Black Hills of South Dakota.2 As the cold air advanced eastward, precipitation also fell over the North- ern and Eastern Plains, but foehn action extended the rain shadow of the Rockies over most of Texas. The eastern half of the country was warm since the two daily Highs affecting the area were mainly of modified Pacific air (Chart IX). Precipitation in the East was associated with cyclonic developments in the east coast trough and orographic control of the strong onshore moist flow. In the last few days of October (not shown here) another westerly disturbance worked eastward at lower latitudes from the west coast trough. Modest but significant amounts of precipitation fell over much of the drought area. Thus October brought temporary relief to many critical drought areas. The further restoration of soil moisture and adequate water tables remained to the future. 2. MEAN CIRCULATION OF THE MONTH . From the preceding rather thorough sampling of the month one should be able to estimate the monthly mean state without great difficulty. Figure 5 shows the mean 700-mb. circulation pattern and accompanying height departures from normal. The westerlieswere stronger and farther north than normal with essentially four mid- latitude troughs-not counting a weak lee-trough east of the Canadian Divide. I n t h e Pacific, an anomalously long wavelength existed; the troughs were on either shore, separated by an elongated ridge.Across the northern periphery of the ridge lay a strong, fast westerly belt, while in the ridge itself heights were 500 ft. above normal. This is the greatest positive (hemispheric) anomaly of record for October. 2 8ee adlacent article by Vore and McCarter discussing forecasting problems associated with this type of development. In retrospect one can see that the first week of October (fig. la) was essentially a continuation of the regime which prevailed during September [3]; i. e., an east coast trough and a ridge west of the Divide. Only in the second week of October, as the west coast trough deepened and anti- cyclogenesis prevailed over the East (fig. 2), did the new regimebecome manifest. During the last twoweeks secondary variations of the new pattern prevailed.Con- sequently, there was a considerable change in circulation type over North America between September and October and, as we have seen, a significant change in certain aspects of the precipitation distribution. Anexception to the general change, however, should be noted in the low- latitude trough over Florida which represented little vari- ation in circulation or weather for this area. For the country as a whole, temperature changes were greater than average; i. e., 58 percent of the stations changed tempera- ture by more than one class compared to 35 percent nor- mally anticipating so great a change from September to October. Another interesting facet of October's weather has been pointed out by Ballenzweig. I n recent research on hurri- canes [I], he has established that patterns similar to figure 5 are generally favorable to hurricane development and subsequent incidence in the Florida area. How then does one account for only one "semitropical)' Low this October? His precursory survey of sea surface temperatures as plotted on current weather maps was expanded and is presented in figure 6. Although complete data are not yet available, those so far examined show surface water temperatures this October werebelownormal [lo] and almost all boxes were below 81'-83' F., which Palmen has noted as approximately the lowest water temperature over which hurricanes are likely to form [12]. Just how FIGURE 6."Preliminary survey of sea surfacewatertemperatures (O F .) forOctoberfrom plotted synoptic data on eleven selected days. Key: inupper left corner of square,number of observa- tions; center, mean sea surface temperature; lower right, depar- turefromnormal. Data farfromcompletebutstrongly suggest prevalence of cooler than normal conditions. and normal temperature for each station. Limiting departures are determined from past 8 Monthly temperature clssses are defined with reference to the monthly variability records so that classes below, near, and above normal each occur j4 of the time, while much below and much above occur $6 of the time. 368 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW OUTOBEB 1966 successfully these anomalies can be related to the atmos- pheric circulations of preceding months is beyond the scope of this note. However, both August and Septem- ber were conspicuous for strong westerly trough activity in western and eastern sectors of the Atlantic. I n fact, the discussion of September [3] mentioned the unconfirmed report of an ice floe sighted near the Azores in uncommon southerly latitudes. Since water temperature anomalies are usually assumed to change but slowly, there is here a definite suggestion (cf. Riehl [14]) that such anomalies have prognostic implications. For a month with similar regional circulation characteristics, but with hurricane activity, the reader is referred to October 1947[4]. It should also be mentioned that the Low near Cuba (Chart X) on the 30th and 31st became a full-fledged hurricane on November 4. 3. MEAN HEIGHT DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL AND WEATHER ANOMALIES In the course of this series of articles considerable atten- tion has been paid to the relation between surface weather and mean 700-mb. height anomalies. The usual proce- dure is to interpret the height anomaly gradients by means of the geostrophic relationship and to speak of “anom- alous components” of flow. This departure from normal (DN) flow may be considered as that flowwhich,when added to the appropriate normal flow,wouldyield the observed flow pattern. Relating mean states of tempera- ture and precipitation to the observed mean 700-mb. flow pattern is rendered much easier through explanations couched in terms of the DN flow, as if the flow has direct physicalexistence. The general success of this approach has won it a certain degree of acceptance, but no explicit justification of its employment has been attempted. It is therefore proposed that some further rationalization be offered here. One of the most convincing demonstrations of the utility of thinking in terms of DN flow was offered in Martin’s temperature studies [8] and, to a lesser extent, in those of Hawkins relating to precipitation [8]. The common employment of DN flow in the work of the Extended Forecast Section [9] stems from about this time (1949) and the concept was employed from the very first in these monthly articles on weather and circulation [6]. It is the author’s opinion that this has proven to be a justifiable procedure and that the success noted was because there are component flows on the observed sea level patterns which correspond, on the whole, quite closely to the con- comitant 700-mb. height departure from normal (DN) pat- terns. This might be extended to the effect that, strong gradients of 700-mb. DN flow usually resemble the total observed flow at sea level. Where the DN flows are weak, and over continental areas in general, this correspondence becomeslesswell marked. In view of the fact that we are concerned with mean maps, and that cold Lows and warm Highs are the more stable and longer-lived elements FIGURE 7.-Vertical component of mean relazive geostrophic vorticity a t 700 mb. for October 2-31, 1956. Centers are labeled in units of lode per second, negative-anticyclonic, positive- cyclonic. Compare overall field with height departures from normal (fig. 5), and sea level mean pressure (fig. 8). contributing to these means, the total resemblance essen- tially reaffirms the hydrostatic equation if one admits the persistent recurrence of given circulation states. On the other hand, shallow Highs and Lows are subject to steering by the upper-level currents. These upper currents are then generally indicative of the deployment of this class of sea level systems. I n this latter connection previous work related the tracks of daily sea level cyclones and anticyclones to the relative vorticity field at 700 mb. [5, 131. The relation between height anomalies and relative vorticity is quite straightforward, since the anomaly centers are, in effect, the perturbations superposed upon a normal field of almost straight westerly flow. If one compares the departures from normal in height (fig. 5) with the 700-mb.field of relative vorticity (fig. 7) the general similarity is quite evident. Correspondence of significant centers was ex- cellent. For example, major positive anomaly centers in the Pacific, St. Lawrence Valley, eastern Atlantic, and southern Siberia found direct reflection in the anticyclonic (negative) vorticity centers; in like manner, the stronger negative height centers in the Gulf of Alaska, off south- eastern Greenland, over European Russia, and in north- eastern Siberia had cyclonic relative vorticity centers as- sociated with them. The correlation coefficientbetween 700-mb. height departure from normal pattern (fig. 5) and the 700-mb. field of relative vorticity (fig. 7) was computed OCTOBER 1956 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW 369 FIGURE 8.-Thirty-day mean sea level pressure,October 2-31, 1956. Strong High over New England resulted in onshore moist currents over most of east coast and warm return flow in central United States. Strong Gulf of Alaska Low was accompanied by weak Basin ridge and anomalouscyclonic activity along west coast of North America. at 72 points distributed evenly around the hemisphere between 30' and 60' N., inclusive, and was found to be Actually, the relative vorticity field at 700 mb. can also be directly related to the field of total sea level pressure. This connection may be found in earlier articles (e. g., Klein [5]) but a forthright statement of the relation has been lacking. Presumably through the agency of the hydrostatic equation, well-marked centers of vorticity (fig. 7) can usually be related to similar centers at sea level(fig. 8 ). The correlation between the patterns of figures 7 and 8 on the 72-point grid was found to be -0.74. This was larger in magnitude than the correlation between 700-mb. height departures from normal and the mean sea level pressure pattern, which was 0.63 for an 81-point grid (including data at 75' N.). Thus the 700-mb. height de- partures from normal are closely related to the field of relative vorticity (at 700 mb.) and, to a slightly lesser degree, to the sea level pressure field itself. Of greater relevance to the general problem is the relation between the upper-level height departures from normal (fig. 5) and the sea level departures from normal (fig. 9). Inspection reveals that, although the maps were not identical, overall similarity was striking. The correlation coefficient between the two patterns, computed at 81 points distributed evenly around the hemisphere between 30' and 75'N., was 0.82. This demonstrates the desired relationship since the prime requisite is that the anoma- lous,%r abnormal, sea level flow be closely related to the -0.70. 409153-67-2 FIGURE 9.-Mean sea level pressuredeparturefromnormal for October 2-31, 1956. Note similarity in field of departures to height departurefield (fig. 5), also correspondence of strong gradients with sea level gradients (fig. 8). 700-mb. height DN flow. In essence this infers that the immediate causes of the mean temperature and (to a lesser extent) precipitation departures from the climatic average are abnormal components offlow in the lower troposphere. The general mode of thinking outlined above is far from new but explict demonstrations have been seldom offered. Nonetheless, objections to the use of any departure from normal map as depicting a real physical entity are com- monly met. More recently the mathematid expression of any flow field in terms of normal and abnormal com- ponents and the utility of such representation has become more generally appreciated [2]. In practice, one finds few, if any, cases in which mean DN flows of signscant inten- sity do not have actual physical currents of like nature on some of the daily synoptic charts which contribute to the series. Comparisons can also be made between 5-day mean height departures at 700 mb. and the concurrent sea level patterns in figures 1 through 4. Where DN gradients were strong, sea level gradients were quite similar. In a number of instances surprising correspondence of detail can be noted. I n application then, one would associate the below normal temperatures in the West (Chart I-B) with the abnormally strong fetch of cold air from the northeastern Pacific into the western United States, indicated by the departure from normal flows a t 700 mb. (fig. 5) and at sea level (fig. 9). The same deductions are possible from the total observed sea level pattern (fig. 8 ) although only comparison with the normal (i. e., fig. 9) or an analog dl reveal the inherent abnormality in figure 8. In like 370 M O N T H L Y W E A T H OOTOBEB 1956 fashion, the prevailing warmth over the central United States occurred where DN flows were southerly or weak and slightly anticyclonic. The east coast was warm in central sections where onshore, warm, moist flowwas strong, but below normal in temperature over Florida, where cyclonic circulation and cloudiness were dominant, and below normal in southern New England, where radia- tion effects were a t a maximum at the center of the sea level High (fig. 8). Precipitation amounts are (often less directly) asso- ciated with the circulation anomalies relative to the pertinent moisture source regions. For instance, precipi- tation in the West (Charts I1 and 111) was due to the strong onshore flow, trailing frontal passages in the trough, and cyclonic developments which occurred immediately down- stream from the trough. This could be inferred from either figures 5,8, or 9, but appears more clearly delineated in the height anomalies of figure 5, or the pressure anomalies of figure 9. Similarly, most of the east coast precipitation couldbe associated with onshore easterly flow and per- turbations associated with it. Heaviest amounts occurred in the central sector, where onshore flow was strongest, and over Florida where cyclonic circulation, at sea level and aloft, was most marked. Precipitation totals in the central portion of the country were comparatively small and, in proportion, less directly related. The precipitation was released by perturbations travelling downstream from the west coast trough, with moisture supplied from the Gulf of Mexico and advected northward around the ridge in the East. The general utility of concentrating attention upon abnormal flow features to explain anomalies in weather has been pointed out in many and diverse writings. The application of this concept to mean flows is both logical and demonstrable. However, it must be expected that, when time means are used, best results will be obtained when dealing with meteorological elements which are con- tinuous in nature and appropriate to time averaging; i. e., temperature, humidity, etc. A discontinuous element such as precipitation does not lend itself as readily to such treatment, although Stidd’s work [15] seems to indicate that when longer and longer time means are employed. even these elements can be successfully treated. The trend of modern meteorology is definitely toward the predictmion of circulation states, although exceptions may be noted. The value of using the departure from normal concept in interpreting these states in terms of weather is believed to be both sound and useful. Furthermore, it is possible that one of the more promising available attacks on the problem of long-range forecasting lies in the treat- ment of evolution of circulations primarily through con- sideration of the field of height anomaly 171. REFERENCES 1. E. M. Ballenzweig, Seasonal Variations in the Fre- quency of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Related to the General Circulation, unpublished report of U. S. Weather Bureau, Extended Forecast Section, Sept. 1956. 2. P. F. Clapp, “Application of Barotropic Tendency Equation to Medium Range Forecasting,” Tellus, vol. 5, No. 1, Feb. 1953, pp. 80-94. 3. H. F. Hawkins, Jr., “The Weather and Circulation of September 1956“Including a Discussion of Hurri- cane Flossy and September’s Typhoon Tracks,” Monthly Weather Review, vol. 84, No. 9, September 4. C. R. Jordan, “River Stages and Floods for October 1947,” Monthly Weather Review, vol. 75, No. 10, Oct. 1947, p. 198. 5. W. H. Klein, “The Weather and Circulation of January 1951,” Monthly Weather Review, vol. 79, No. 1, Jan. 1951, pp. 16-19. 6. W. H. Klein, “The Weather and Circulation of Jan- uary 1950,” Monthly Weather Review, vol. 78, No. 1, Jan. 1950, pp. 13-14. 7. W. H. Klein, “The Central Role of the Height Anomaly in the Outlook for Long-Range Weather Forecasting,” Transactions of New York Academy of Sciences, Series 2, vol. 18, No. 4, Feb. 1956, pp. 375-337. 3. D. E. Martin and H. F. Hawkins, Jr., “Forecasting the Weather-The Relationship of Temperature and Circulation Aloft,” Weatherwise, vol. 3, Nos. 1956, pp. 336-342. 1-6, 1950, pp. 16-19,40-43, 65-67,89-92, 113-116, 138-141. 9. J. Namias, “Thirty-Day Forecasting: A Review of a 10-Year Experiment,” Meteorological Monographs, vol. 2, No, 6, American Meteorological Society, July 1953. (See pp. 1940.) 10. U. S. Navy Hydrographic Office, “World Atlas of Sea Surface Temperatures,” H. 0. Publication No. 225, 2d Ed., 1944. 11. R. C. Nelson, “Precipitation Deficiencies in Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri; January-Septem- ber 1956,” Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, National Summary, vol. XLIII, No. 46, Nov. 12, 1956, p. 7. 12. E. Palmh, “On the Formation and Structure of Tropical Hurricanes,” Qeophysica (Helsinki), vol. 3, 13. 0. E. Richard, Relation of Sea Level Cyclones and Anticyclones to the Five-Day Mean 700-mb. Vor- ticity Field, unpublished Master’s Thesis, Univer- sity of Chicago, December 1952. 14. H. Riehl, Tropical Meteorology, McGraw-Hill Book Co., Inc., New York, 1954. (See pp. 331-332.) 15. C. K. Stidd, “The Use of Correlation Fields in Relating Precipitation to Circulation,” Journal of Meteor- ology, vol. 11, No. 3, June 1954, pp. 202-213. 1943, pp. 26-38. B. Departure of Average Temperature from Normal (OF.). October 1956. LXXXIV-135 OCTOBER 1956 M. W..R.. B. Percentage of Normal Precipitation, October 1956 LXXXIV-137 Chart VI. A. Percen OCTOBER 1956 M. W. R. re of Sky Cover Lxween Sunrise and Sunset, October 1956. B. Percentage of Normal Sky Cover Between Sunrise and Sunset, October 1956. A. In addition to cloudiness, sky cover includes obscuration or the sky by fog, smoke, snow, etc. tihart based on visual observations made hourly at Weather Bureau stations and averaged over the month. B. Computations of normal amount of sky cover are made for stations having at least 10 years of record. OCTOBER 1956 M. W. R. LXXXIV-138 . .1 .~ Chart VII. A. Percentage of Possible Sunshine, October 1956. , B. Percentage of Normal Sunshine, October 1956. A. Computed from total number of hours of observed sunshme in relation to total number of possible hours of sunshine during month. B. Normals are computed for stations having at least 10 years of record. LXXXIV-139 OCTOBER 1956 M. W. R. OCTOBER 1956 M. W. R. XXXIV- ' OCTOBER 1956 M. W. R. XXXIV- ' OCTOBER 1956 M. W. R. XXXIV- ' OCTOBER 1956 M. W. R. 0 0 c') 0 OCTOBER 1956 M. W. R. .. . Lxxm-144 . j i . I 1 .n A A l V -L 4 3 OCTOBER 1956 M:W. R. OCTOBER 1956 M. W. R. LXXXIV-146 J 0 0 m 0 0 ai- "I rd bl 5 m d E 0 0 c\1 L