####018001585####
ACUS02 KWNS 281655

SWODY2

SPC AC 281653



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1053 AM CST WED JAN 28 2009



VALID 291200Z - 301200Z



...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...



...SYNOPSIS...

IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW FCST TO CONTINUE ACROSS

MUCH OF CONUS THROUGH DAY-2...SUPPORTING PROGRESSIVE SERIES OF

MOSTLY POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVES.  FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW

ANALYZED FROM LH SSWWD ACROSS WRN TN -- IS FCST TO EJECT ENEWD FROM

NEW ENGLAND ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS PERIOD...WITH EMBEDDED

500 MB LOW DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.  AS THIS OCCURS...SFC CYCLONE --

INITIALLY OVER UPPER OH VALLEY -- WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE OVER SRN

MARITIMES...WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS TO

NRN FL AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD. THIS FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY

SEWD...REACHING CENTRAL/SRN FL BY 30/12Z.



...FL PENINSULA...

ONE OR TWO BANDS OF PRECIP AND EMBEDDED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP

ALONG OR BEHIND COLD FRONT...FROM SERN GULF ACROSS FL TO GULF STREAM

WATERS OF ATLANTIC.  OVER GULF LOOP CURRENT AND GULF STREAM...MARINE

THERMODYNAMIC FLUXES MAY BOOST LOW LEVEL THETAE SUFFICIENTLY TO

GENERATE DEEP CAPE IN SUPPORT OF THUNDER POTENTIAL.  ALTHOUGH VERY

BRIEF/ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER LAND...SMALLER

VALUES OF THETAE WILL BE JUXTAPOSED BENEATH WEAK/STABLE LAPSE RATES

ALOFT.  THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE BUOYANT LAYER FROM DEEPENING

SUFFICIENTLY INLAND TO SUPPORT ENOUGH LIGHTNING FOR AOA 10-PERCENT

THUNDER PROBABILITIES.



..EDWARDS.. 01/28/2009