FXUS64 KMAF 042013 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 213 PM CST SAT DEC 4 2004 .SHORT TERM... WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LOW OFF CA COAST WITH BROADLY DIFFLUENT DOWNSTREAM FLOW ACRS SWRN STATES. FARTHER SW A MOIST SWLY MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL FLOW IS IN PLACE WITH MINOR EMBEDDED SHRTWV TROF/S WITHIN. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF SFC LOW IN NE NM THIS EVENING ALLOWING A BRIEF RETURN OF S-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW/WAA. FCST TRACK OF UPPER LOW WILL BE N...AND AS IT MOVES THRU CENTRAL NM EARLY SUN AM LOOKS LIKE MOST VORTICITY WILL BE CHANNELED ACRS NW PB. WAVE TRAIN OF MINOR IMPULSES TO MOVE ACRS LOW TRANS PECOS REGION. TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE A DISCONNECT BTWN MID LEVEL LIFT ASSOCD WITH SHRTWV ENERGY AND LOW LEVEL LIFT. EXPECT THAT LOW LEVELS WILL BE MOIST ENUF FOR RAIN AS COLUMN WILL BE ABLE TO MOISTEN IN PART FROM MID LEVELS DOWN. MOS GUIDANCE IS VARIED IN POPS WITH ETA HAVING LOWEST POPS. ATTP WILL INCREASE POPS BUT REMAIN IN CHC CATEGORY FAVORING THE TRANS PECOS REGION...ESPECIALLY LOWER TRAN PECOS DUE PROXIMITY TO SHRTWV TROF/S AND HIER LOW LEVEL DWPNTS. INCREASED MSTR OVERNIGHT WILL HOLD TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. .LONG TERM... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL OPEN UP AND EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE SUNDAY. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY MORNING AS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM...WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO END BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST...WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK...DIVING TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE EJECTING EAST TOWARD NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BACK OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE ETA MODEL EVEN HINTING AT SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. VERY FAST/50-60 KNOT/ MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH WINDS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED BY LATER SHIFTS. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY IN THIS AFTERNOON/S HWO ISSUANCE. IN THE EXTENDED...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LATE TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AS IT TRANSLATES TOWARD THE AREA BY THE LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE BEST DIFFLUENT FLOW/LIFT FOR RAIN WILL EXTEND ACROSS EAST AND SOUTH TEXAS. HAVE KEPT SILENT 10S ACROSS THE FAR EAST FOR NOW. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN BUILDING IN ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 47 64 49 63 / 40 30 10 40 CARLSBAD NM 44 61 44 58 / 30 20 20 30 DRYDEN TX 50 69 55 68 / 50 20 20 30 FORT STOCKTON TX 49 66 51 63 / 40 30 20 30 GUADALUPE PASS TX 39 54 38 52 / 40 20 20 30 HOBBS NM 43 63 45 60 / 30 30 10 40 MARFA TX 40 62 39 56 / 40 20 20 30 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 46 64 50 62 / 40 30 10 40 ODESSA TX 46 64 50 63 / 40 30 10 40 WINK TX 44 66 49 65 / 30 30 10 40 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. NM...NONE. && $$ 49/21