FXUS64 KMAF 290917 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 417 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004 .SHORT TERM... A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADLY DIFLUENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL COMBINE WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A PLETHORA OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAKE IT HARD TO PINPOINT THE BEST AREAS FOR CONVECTIVE GENESIS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WHERE ISENTROPIC WARM ADVECTION IS GREATEST...THEN SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS OROGRAPHY COMBINES WITH HEATING AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 2.5 CM/HR. THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES FORECAST TO EXCEED 3 CM ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA. QPF VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 25MM ACROSS THE WEST TO NEAR 150MM ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES. WHILE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ABOUT THE EASTERN QUARTER THIS MORNING SHIFTING WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT BELIEVE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING TO BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH IN TIME AND SPACE TO WARRANT EXTENDING THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH... CONSEQUENTLY WE HAVE ALLOWED THIS WATCH TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. HOWEVER...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE ANTECEDENT RAINFALL IS GREATEST...AND WE WILL STRESS SAME IN THE UPCOMING HWO. GIVEN EXPECTED WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE OVERALL TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE THREAT OF SEVERE CONVECTION IS MINIMAL. TROPICAL FUNNELS MAY HOWEVER OCCUR BENEATH VIGOROUSLY GROWING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES AND QPF TO FALL OFF AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND INCREASING DAVA ALOFT. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO VEER OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE PRESSURES FALL ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURE EXTREMES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE MODULATED GREATLY BY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO OR A BIT ABOVE YESTERDAY'S TEMPERATURES...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS. .LONG TERM... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES ON WEDNESDAY...IN BETWEEN A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD STILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN REGION OF GREATEST INSTABILITY/LIFT WITHIN THE VICINITY OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE STORMS ACROSS THE WEST WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD COMBINE TO GENERATE AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL COMMENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...MOST NOTEABLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...WHERE AFTERNOON MAXES MAY RETURN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE TYPICAL HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BOTH DAYS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE TO MORE TYPICAL READINGS. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SHORTWAVE RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE INTO WESTERN AREAS IN THE LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY TIME FRAME. THIS COULD HELP INCREASE POPS A BIT...BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 82 62 88 68 / 50 50 30 20 CARLSBAD NM 86 64 91 67 / 40 30 20 20 DRYDEN TX 85 68 90 71 / 50 50 30 20 FORT STOCKTON TX 85 68 91 69 / 40 40 20 20 GUADALUPE PASS TX 83 64 86 65 / 30 30 20 20 HOBBS NM 82 63 91 66 / 50 40 20 20 MARFA TX 82 57 86 58 / 30 30 20 20 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 84 66 89 69 / 50 50 30 20 ODESSA TX 85 66 90 69 / 50 40 20 20 WINK TX 89 69 97 70 / 40 40 20 20 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. NM...NONE. && $$ 70/21