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Acronyms .................................................... ix Acknowledgements................................................................................... xi Chapter 1 Introduction ...........................................................................1 1.1 Structure and Agent in Science-Policy Interaction ...............1 1.2 The Scientific Diplomacy of Climate Change .........................5 1.3 Structure of the book ........................................ ..... 7 1.4 Generalisations .................................................................... 10 Chapter 2 Effectiveness in Processes of Science-Policy Interaction. 13 2.1 Introduction ...........................................................................13 2.2 Effectiveness as Realisation of Official Purpose................... 14 2.3 Policy Acceptance as Reflected in a Consensual Problem Diagnosis ............................................................................ 17 2.3.1 The Development of a Consensual Problem Diagnosis......... 18 2.4 Towards a Comprehensive Definition of Effectiveness ........20 2.5 A "Consensual Problem Diagnosis" versus "Consensual Knowledge" ...........................................................................22 2.6 In Sum ..................................................................................24 Chapter 3 The Science-Policy Nexus ...................................... 27 3.1 Introduction ...........................................................................27 3.2 The Internal Dynamics of Scientific Inquiry .........................28 3.2.1 The Role of Consensus in Science................................. 29 3.2.2 The Development of Consensus in Science........................... 34 3.2.3 In Sum .................................................................................... 40 3.3 The Internal Dynamics of Politics .........................................40 3.3.1 The Strategic Value of Information in Distributive Bargaining ............................................................................. 41 3.3.2 The Role of Information in Integrative Bargaining ............... 45 3.3.3 The Dilemmas of Mixed Bargaining ..................................... 49 3.3.4 What Kind of Information is Needed and When? .................51 3.3.5 In Sum ....................................................................................55 3.4 The Dynamics of Science-Policy Interaction ........................56 3.4.1 Scientific Knowledge as Legitimisation for Policy Choice... 57 3.4.2 "Negotiating" Knowledge ..................................................... 61 3.5 In Sum ....................................................................................63 Chapter 4 Designing Institutions for Science-Policy Interaction ............................................................................ 65 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................... 65 4.2 Institutions Defined ............................................................... 66 4.3 Do Institutions Matter, and Can They be Designed? ............. 67 4.3.1 Social Institutions as Rational, Natural and Open Systems... 68 4.3.2 Institutions as Instruments ..................................................... 69 4.4 Realising the Instrumental Potential of Institutional Design. 71 4.4.1 Institutional Functions ...........................................................71 4.4.2 Linking Functions to Institutional Devices ............................ 73 4.5 Leadership Performance ........................................................ 80 4.5.1 Leadership Performance in Negotiations .............................. 81 4.5.2 The Role of Scientific Elites .................................................. 83 4.5.3 Leadership Functions in Processes of Science-Policy Interaction .................. ....................................84 4.5.4 Links Between Institutional Design and Leadership Performance .................. ...............................87 4.6 Problem Malignancy and the State of Knowledge ................87 4.6.1 Problem Malignancy............................................................. 88 4.6.2 State of Knowledge ...............................................................90 4.7 In Sum ....................................................................................90 Chapter 5 The Development of an International Regime on a Human-Induced Climate Change ......................................93 5.1 Introduction ...........................................................................93 5.2 The Problem of a Human-Induced Climate Change .............. 93 5.3 The Scientific and Political History of the Development of an International Regime on a Human-Induced Climate Change ...................................................................................97 5.4 The Effectiveness of the Science-Policy Dialogue ............. 100 5.5 In Sum ................................................................................. 103 Chapter 6 Structure: The Institutional Design of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change................. 105 6.1 Introduction ......................................................................... 105 6.2 The Institutional Set-up of the IPCC ................................... 106 6.3 The Assessment Process of the IPCC ..................................109 6.3.1 The Assessment Process in Principle ................................. 109 6.3.2 The Assessment Process in Practice: The Proceedings of WGI .................................................................................112 6.3.3 The Assessment Process in Practice - In Contrast to the Proceedings of the Old WGIII .......................................119 6.4 The Capacity of the Institutional Arrangements of the IPCC to Serve the Four Main Functions ............................. 123 6.4.1 Scientific Autonomy ............................................................ 123 6.4.2 Science-Policy Integration .................................................. 126 6.4.3 Geographic Representativeness ........................................... 130 6.4.4 Mechanisms for Conflict Resolution ................................... 132 6.5 Enhanced Effectiveness? ..................................................... 142 6.5.1 Score ................................................................................... 142 6.5.2 Effect .................................................................................. 145 Chapter 7 Agent: Leadership Performance in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change................. 151 7.1 Introduction ......................................................................... 151 7.2 Identifying Leadership Performance ................................... 152 7.2.1 Actor Capabilities ................................................................ 153 7.2.2 Leadership in the Development of the Knowledge Base..... 156 7.2.3 Leadership in the Transformation of Scientific Knowledge 161 7.2.4 Boundary-role leadership in the Development of Institutional Arrangements ..................................................168 7.2.5 Boundary-role Leadership in the Provision of Communicative Links.......................................................... 177 7.3 Institutional Conditions for Leadership Performance.......... 182 7.3.1 A Mandate for Leadership? ................................................. 183 7.3.2 Leadership Recruitment....................................................... 186 7.4 Enhanced Effectiveness? ..................................................... 188 Chapter 8 Causal Relationship: Real or Spurious? ..........................193 8.1 Introduction ......................................................................... 193 8.2 The Political Malignancy of the Problem of a Human Induced Climate Change...................................................... 196 8.3 The State of Knowledge ........................................ 206 8.3.1 The Scientific Uncertainty f Climate Change .................... 207 8.3.2 The IPCC's handling of Scientific Uncertainty .................. 210 8.3.3 In Sum..............................................219 8.4 Causal Relationship: Real? .................................................. 220 Chapter 9 Structure and Agent in the Scientific Diplomacy of Climate Change ............................................ . 225