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000 FXUS04 KWBC 090620 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 219 AM EDT MON MAR 09 2009 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID MAR 09/1200 UTC THRU MAR 10/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... ANOTHER ROUND OF LCLY HVY TO PSBLY EXCESSIVE RNFL IS LIKELY FOR PTNS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST THIS PD..AND ESP MON NGT. ALTHO THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFS IN HOW THE MDLS ARE HANDLING THE WRN U.S. H5 TROF DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES THIS PD..THEY ALL AGREE THAT THE MID/UPR LVL FLO WL BACK SUBSTANTIALLY OVR THE CNTRL STATES MON NGT..LEADING TO A RAPID INCREASE IN OVRRNG RNFL/CNVCTN FM PTNS OF ERN KS/ERN OK ENEWD INTO THE LWR GTLKS. A STRENGTHENING SSWLY/SWLY LLJ AOA 50KTS IS FCST TO DVLP LTR MON AFTN UP THRU THE SRN PLAINS..AND CONT MON NGT UP INTO THE MIDWEST/LWR GTLKS..BRINGING PWS ABV 1.25 INCHES INTO THE RETREATING WRMFNTL BNDRY. THIS WAA/MSTR ADVECTION WL SUPPORT THE EXPANDING RNFL REGIME..AS ALL OF THE MDL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. AS A MATTER OF FACT..MDL QPFS ARE ACTUALLY IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT..AT LEAST IN FCSTG THE HVIEST RNFL AXIS FM ERN KS ENEWD INTO NRN IL/NRN IN..ALTHO THE NAM AMTS MAY BE A LTL ON THE LOW SIDE. THUS..LEANED TWDS THE SLGTLY HVIER GFS/12Z ECMWF HIRES QPF SOLNS.. AND XPC AT LEAST A BAND OF 1-2+ INCH RNFL TOTALS..WITH SOME ISOLD 3 INCH AMTS PSBL. ...NEW ENG... LATEST MDL SOLNS ARE IN VRY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE ERN GTLKS H5 S/WV GENLY EWD THRU NY STATE AND SERN NEW ENG ON MON..UNDERNEATH CANADIAN MARITIMES MID/UPR LVL VORTEX. WHAT IS LEFT OF ANY GULF AND OR ATLC INFLO INTO SRN NEW ENG AHD OF THIS S/WV WL BE PASSING OFFSHORE VRY ERY IN THE PD..SO MSTR AVBLTY WON`T BE AS GREAT WITH THIS SYS AS WAS THE CASE YDA. HOWEVER..SYS WL HAVE COMPACT BUT IMPRESSIVE HGT FALLS/MID LVL DYNAMICS/FORCING WITH IT..SO THAT AT LEAST SOME 0.25-0.50 INCH WTR EQUIVALENTS ARE LIKELY GENLY ALG AND N OF ITS TRACK FM ERN NY STATE EWD THRU SERN NEW ENG. MANUAL QPF GENLY TOOK A BLEND OF THE HVIER NAM/SLGTLY LIGHTER GFS QPF SOLNS. ...WRN STATES... THE REGIME OVR THE WRN STATES WL BE DOMINATED BY THE H5 TROF DIGGING SSEWD FM THE PAC NW/NRN GT BASIN INTO THE CNTRL SRN ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PD..WITH THE LATEST MDL SOLNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LEAST ON THE LRG SCALE. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE MID LVL HGT FALLS/DYNAMICS AND LRG SCALE LIFT WL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PCPN..MSTLY SNOW..THRUOUT THE CNTRL GT BASIN AND ROCKIES. ALTHO MSTR NOT THAT GREAT..STG LIFT AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WL SUPPORT SOME MDTLY HVY SNOWS..AND PREFERRED THE HVIER NAM QPF OVR THE WASATCH AND THE HVIER GFS QPF OVR THE MTNS OF CNTRL CO. OTRW..MDL QPFS WERE RATHER SIMILAR ELSEWHERE IN THE W..AND SEEMED REASONABLE. TERRY GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 10/12Z 0.01 472034 473023 475009 478993 487972 504940 516909 518899 517892 515888 512887 508888 502891 494898 492900 489899 486897 479903 476907 473907 471903 470897 469888 468882 467878 463872 454865 445854 441845 439842 430827 423824 413823 402826 392837 384846 378870 377884 376897 373909 370917 368922 365929 362933 358938 353942 351947 345955 333974 315992 303004 297010 294013 293018 293025 296030 301032 306030 313024 319016 325008 333000 337997 339999 338004 339011 346006 350003 352002 361000 364997 371995 375992 383989 389989 394986 400978 413964 416963 420965 428973 426983 426989 427993 432009 432020 430025 428030 425034 417043 378065 364054 352043 347039 343037 338037 335040 335048 330049 326048 321047 316048 314049 311045 309044 306044 302048 298051 296057 295062 297063 303065 307066 310070 311076 308082 305087 303092 305097 311104 316107 320108 324110 329109 335111 338112 340111 345102 349091 356083 358077 361075 364076 367081 372093 375097 379100 382099 384097 387097 389100 389104 386108 381110 371116 365118 361122 359126 358130 359133 364139 371147 376151 378154 383160 385166 387175 389179 389184 383190 382193 383198 387201 391203 395203 405201 410198 415194 421190 426193 430192 434188 437189 440196 441199 444202 454197 461188 468183 472184 477188 480191 482195 480200 476203 455208 446212 435211 429207 424205 422217 418229 409234 404240 403242 405246 408247 416250 423253 431254 436254 444253 449253 453252 464251 473253 478252 482254 488261 494267 497265 498259 495245 493239 496238 499239 502238 504231 505220 505213 505207 507203 510194 512192 515191 517192 521188 522182 522177 519169 517162 514157 505149 500141 498131 495122 491117 486115 478120 474115 470102 464091 463082 464072 466060 468053 470042 472034 0.01 464755 458731 453717 449705 444696 440688 437683 434677 428670 418660 414658 410658 402659 396663 392669 391679 392689 395707 398717 398727 398735 400746 402755 406764 408771 407776 405778 398785 392791 387798 387803 400798 406798 412800 421806 427805 433804 438805 445804 451800 454797 459789 462783 464773 465761 464755 0.01 457140 463141 471146 476148 480148 480145 476140 471135 469130 464125 457123 445121 438122 433125 429132 427139 426148 427151 429159 432163 433168 436174 439178 442178 442174 439172 437167 435160 434151 435144 439141 445146 449146 453143 457140 0.01 299088 298084 296080 294077 291074 287072 283071 277071 275072 270075 270081 272085 274088 277090 282093 288092 293091 298091 299088 0.25 437713 435705 432695 428687 423681 419676 414672 409671 404674 402679 401686 405701 407709 411718 419730 421734 421738 420747 423755 426757 429756 432752 434743 434737 436730 437723 437716 437713 0.25 486214 485212 478211 476214 477216 482217 485216 486214 0.25 475173 485174 488174 490170 490167 487163 479157 473155 469156 467161 466167 469171 475173 0.25 474967 478962 482955 484947 486939 485936 483935 480937 475941 470948 469955 469961 469968 470971 472969 474967 0.25 462225 464222 464217 461216 458216 452217 449218 443217 439218 433220 431224 432230 434233 437234 443232 446232 451230 455227 459226 462225 0.25 459034 460024 459012 456012 455014 453016 450022 443032 439038 436043 433047 427052 421057 416061 407062 401065 396068 392068 388070 387074 385077 385081 387084 390086 396089 401088 405091 406096 405101 404106 402108 388115 384118 383123 386124 393121 399125 403126 406125 412124 419121 425115 427113 431113 437112 441109 443105 443092 443088 445085 451082 452075 451069 452063 453057 456047 459034 0.25 429888 429878 427867 424854 422848 419845 414842 410843 403848 398856 393867 391877 389884 381914 376927 369939 361951 354964 350970 348976 347980 348983 356983 364982 372979 382976 389972 397966 403960 408953 415943 424930 427923 430916 431911 431905 429899 429892 429888 0.25 425099 423097 419095 417095 415097 415101 415105 416109 418108 420105 424102 425099 0.50 420691 416685 413683 412684 411688 413692 416700 420707 422708 423707 424704 423700 422697 420691 0.50 423862 422857 418850 416848 413848 409852 405857 402862 397875 393886 389901 387911 384918 381925 377934 370946 365954 362960 361965 362969 368971 374970 382968 389965 393964 398960 405950 411939 417926 421915 422906 422899 423866 423862 0.50 407113 407117 408119 410120 412120 415120 415118 414117 413115 410110 408109 407113 0.50 399079 404079 406077 409074 412074 413072 412070 407068 404069 402072 399075 396078 398079 399079 1.00 417872 416866 414862 411861 409863 406868 400886 394907 387925 383934 378943 374951 374954 377959 385958 394955 400948 405939 408930 412917 414909 415897 417872 1.50 401940 406929 410913 412898 412888 411884 409883 407884 405889 398910 391925 386935 381946 382950 384951 388951 394950 399945 401940 2.00 393929 388939 387942 387945 389947 392946 398939 403928 404920 403916 401916 398919 393929 $$
