AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 230 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004 .CURRENTLY...MOSTLY SUNNY W AND PARTLY SUNNY E OF RIVER. TEMPS MID 80S AND DEW POINTS FROM MID 60S SE ALA TO MID 70S SE BIG BEND. 24 HR TEMP/DEW POINT COMPARISON SHOWS SHARP LOCAL AIRMASS CONTRASTS WITH SITES W OF RIVER NOTICEABLY WARMER AND DRIER WITH THOSE E OF RIVER NOTICEABLY COOLER AND WETTER. WINDS W LESS THAN 10 MPH ALA/GA AND S/SW 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS FLA. RADAR SHOWS ISOLD CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS ERN BIG BEND AND APALACHEE BAY. && .DISCUSSION...PROGRESSIVE MID-UPR PATTERN WITH TROFS PAC NW AND NE WITH RIDGE IN BETWEEN. ERN TROF AXIS JUST E OF CWFA. ASSOCD UPR LO NE TENN MAKING SLOW NE PROGRESS WITH VORT LOBE NOW E OF CWFA. SATELLITE H20 SHOWS NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND S/W QUAD OF LOW AND FILTERING INTO LOCAL AREA. INCREASINGLY DRY UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS ATTEST TO THIS. THIS ACCOUNTS FOR ABOVE AIR MASS CONTRAST. AT SURFACE...LO OVER S CAROLINA WITH QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS CNTRL GA...SCNTRL ALA AND SRN MISS. UPR LOW FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT NE TONIGHT AS AN OPEN WAVE REACHING MID ATLC STATES BY TOMORROW. LINGERING MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND LO MAY BRUSH NE THIRD OF CWFA THIS EVENING SO WILL LEAVE SMALL POPS THERE..OTHERWISE WILL DROP POPS. WITH HI DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS..WILL INTRO PATCHY FOG LATE..MNLY E OF RIVER WHERE GRADS WEAKEST. NEXT SHORT WAVE ACROSS SRN PLAINS SHOULD MOVE SE BUT REMAIN WELL N OF CWFA TOMORROW. AS SURFACE LO RIDES UP FRONT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...FRONT SAGS SEWD BUT WITH UPR FLOW WEAKENING...SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMES LARGELY PARALLEL TO UPR FLOW AND BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG OR JUST N OF CWFA. TOMORROW...AIR MASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE DEEP LYR RIDGE (BERMUDA HI) BEGINS TO NOSE WWD...CNTRL FLA SURFACE HI/RIDGE MOVES NWD. GA/ALA FRONT THEN LIFTS NWD BY SUNDAY. THUS LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR FOR FORESEEABLE FUTURE WITH HIGH DEW POINTS AND WEAK GRADIENT FLOW. 1000-700 MB FLOW IS LIGHT-MDT SW NEXT TWO DAYS..THEN LIGHT SLY THE FOLLOWING TWO DAYS. RETURN TO CLIMO SUMMER SEA-BREEZE REGIME WITH LO-MID SCT AFTN POPS FLA (WITH ERN PANHANDLE COAST FAVORED) AND WDLY SCT LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS ELSEWHERE. ALTHO ISOLD PULSE SEVERE NOT IMPOSSIBLE..ABSENCE OF DEEP LYR SHEAR ON MODEL SOUNDINGS ARGUES AGAINST SAME. && .LONG TERM...UPR RIDGE BECOMES DOMINANT FEATURE BY LATE SUNDAY AND CONTS INTO MID-WEEK. SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER N...ALIGNED W-E ACROSS SRN GA BORDER COUNTIES WITH LOCAL FLOW SHIFTING FROM W/SW TO SELY. NEXT UPR/SFC LOW MOVES E ACROSS GULF TO APPROACH LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK FOR INCREASING POPS. && .MARINE...WITH LOCAL GRADIENTS ON WEAK SIDE...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN AOB 10 KNOTS AND 3 FEET THRU THE WEEKEND. && .FIRE WX...AMPLE LOW LVL MOISTURE SO NO SHORT TERM FIRE WX CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 68 89 69 89/ 10 30 20 30 PFN 73 87 73 87/ 10 20 20 30 DHN 68 89 71 88/ 05 20 20 30 ABY 68 89 69 89/ 10 20 20 30 VLD 69 89 70 88/ 20 30 20 30 CTY 70 89 69 88/ 10 40 20 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. $$ BLOCK ____________________________________________________________________- .PREV DISCUSSION... 930 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004 .SHORT TERM...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NC COAST TO WEAK LOW OVER SC PIEDMONT TO UPPER TX COAST. WATER VAPOR/IR COMPOSITE ANIMATION SHOWED UPPER LOW OVER S/CNTRL KY W/ N-S TROUGH AXIS INTO NRN GULF. VORT LOBE EXTENDED FROM SE GA TO NE GULF. REGIONAL 88DS INDICATED A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MOVING E AT 30 KTS. IN ITS WAKE...NVA & MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING (BMX PWAT 1.37, JAN PWAT 1.03)...BUT FAIRLY MOIST/UNSTABLE BELOW 600 MB. LATEST SPC SWODY1 HAS MUCH OF OUR CWFA HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS TODAY. GIVEN ENERGY/LIFT EXITING TO THE E...FEEL SLIGHT RISK COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO GENERAL TSTM & WILL DROP SEVERE WORDING FROM ZONES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE TSTM OR TWO W/ WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY W/ LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION INTERACTING W/ GULF SEA BREEZE. ALSO...WILL REMOVE MORNING WORDING & TWEAK SKY/POPS IN A FEW AREAS. && .MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LIES S/SE OF COASTAL WATERS...RESULTING IN W/SW WINDS 10-15 KTS. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2 FT. KEATON BEACH RECORDED A NW WIND GUST TO 25 KTS AS LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVES ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY COAST AT 13Z. RUC/MESOETA MAINTAIN A GENERAL W/SW WIND DIRECTION TODAY. WILL ADD CAVEAT FOR HIGHER WINDS/SEAS NEAR SHWRS/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY FOR WATERS E OF APALACHICOLA. && ...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 257 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND SATURDAY). CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT HIGHER POPS THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...PLACED HIGHER POPS OVER THE ERN CWFA AS THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH POSITION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE CWFA. SPC WENT WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OUR CWFA...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT FARTHER N AND WET MICROBURST WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT FARTHER S. WILL MENTION POSSIBLE SEVERE IN THE ZONES. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT...AND THEN FOR SATURDAY AGAIN KEPT HIGHEST POPS OVER OUR ERN CWFA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY). FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. && .MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 88 67 90 68 / 40 20 30 20 PFN 87 72 87 72 / 30 10 20 20 DHN 87 67 89 69 / 30 10 20 20 ABY 88 66 89 68 / 40 20 20 20 VLD 87 68 89 68 / 50 20 30 20 CTY 87 70 88 69 / 40 20 40 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. && $$ TJT/MAJ fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 930 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004 .SHORT TERM...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NC COAST TO WEAK LOW OVER SC PIEDMONT TO UPPER TX COAST. WATER VAPOR/IR COMPOSITE ANIMATION SHOWED UPPER LOW OVER S/CNTRL KY W/ N-S TROUGH AXIS INTO NRN GULF. VORT LOBE EXTENDED FROM SE GA TO NE GULF. REGIONAL 88DS INDICATED A LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG THIS FEATURE MOVING E AT 30 KTS. IN ITS WAKE...NVA & MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING (BMX PWAT 1.37, JAN PWAT 1.03)...BUT FAIRLY MOIST/UNSTABLE BELOW 600 MB. LATEST SPC SWODY1 HAS MUCH OF OUR CWFA HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS TODAY. GIVEN ENERGY/LIFT EXITING TO THE E...FEEL SLIGHT RISK COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO GENERAL TSTM & WILL DROP SEVERE WORDING FROM ZONES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE TSTM OR TWO W/ WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY W/ LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION INTERACTING W/ GULF SEA BREEZE. ALSO...WILL REMOVE MORNING WORDING & TWEAK SKY/POPS IN A FEW AREAS. && .MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LIES S/SE OF COASTAL WATERS...RESULTING IN W/SW WINDS 10-15 KTS. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2 FT. KEATON BEACH RECORDED A NW WIND GUST TO 25 KTS AS LINE OF SHWRS/TSTMS MOVES ACROSS TAYLOR COUNTY COAST AT 13Z. RUC/MESOETA MAINTAIN A GENERAL W/SW WIND DIRECTION TODAY. WILL ADD CAVEAT FOR HIGHER WINDS/SEAS NEAR SHWRS/TSTMS...ESPECIALLY FOR WATERS E OF APALACHICOLA. && ...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 257 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND SATURDAY). CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT HIGHER POPS THIS MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON...PLACED HIGHER POPS OVER THE ERN CWFA AS THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH POSITION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THE CWFA. SPC WENT WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF OUR CWFA...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT FARTHER N AND WET MICROBURST WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT FARTHER S. WILL MENTION POSSIBLE SEVERE IN THE ZONES. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TONIGHT...AND THEN FOR SATURDAY AGAIN KEPT HIGHEST POPS OVER OUR ERN CWFA. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY). FEW CHANGES WERE MADE. && .MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 88 67 90 68 / 40 20 30 20 PFN 87 72 87 72 / 30 10 20 20 DHN 87 67 89 69 / 30 10 20 20 ABY 88 66 89 68 / 40 20 20 20 VLD 87 68 89 68 / 50 20 30 20 CTY 87 70 88 69 / 40 20 40 20 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. && $$ TJT/MAJ fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 920 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004 .DISCUSSION... ...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY TODAY... FOR SEVERAL RUNS DATING BACK TO LAST WEEK...GFS HAD BEEN POINTING TO A MID WEEK BREAK IN THE HEAT WAVE CORRESPONDING TO THE ONSET OF THE WET SEASON AND HAD ALSO BEEN SHOWING THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH FRIDAY HAVING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL. FROM THE LOOKS OF THINGS AS OF 12Z...IT HAS PRETTY MUCH NAILED BOTH THESE EVENTS. COMPARED TO THIS TIME THU...THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OVER ECFL LOOKS EVEN MORE CONDUCIVE TO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER ECFL. H50 VORT AXIS ANALYZED BY WATER VAPOR/RUC EXTENDING FROM NE GOMEX ACROSS NORTH FL AND UP THE SERN SEABOARD. LOCAL MEAN PWAT HAS INCREASED TO ~1.8" WITH H50 TEMPS -9/-10C. MODIFYING FOR 91F/72F YIELDS ~2800J/KG CAPE WITH LI NR -8C AND WBZ ~13KFT. H85-H50 WINDS FCST TO BE SW AT 15-17KT NR THE OCALA FOREST AND ~10KT NR LAKE OKEE BY THIS AFTN SO STEERING IS STRONGER THAN THU..AND DIRECTED ONCE AGAIN BACK TWD THE EAST COAST. LOOKING UPSTREAM...FOR (AT LEAST) THE 4TH DAY IN A ROW...THERE IS A RESIDUAL SQLN TO OUR NW...HOWEVER THIS ONE IS MUCH CLOSER TO ECFL... ALREADY IMPINGING ON THE JAX CWA...SO IT APPEARS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A DIRECT FACTOR. ALSO (SIMILAR TO WED/THU) ANTICIPATE CONVECTION TO FIRE OUT AHEAD OF THIS LINE EAST OF APALACHEE BAY OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DYNAMIC FORCING FROM THE H50 VORT LOBE POISED TO DROP SEWD ACROSS THE AREA THRU THIS AFTN. GIVEN THE SFC-STEERING FLOW COUPLED WITH DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC CONSIDERATIONS...AS WELL AND ONGOING UPSTREAM CONVECTION...I REALLY HAVE NO QUALM WITH KICKING POPS UP TO AT LEAST 70% ALL ZONES (COVRG MAY BE A TAD LOWER ALONG THE TREASURE COAST) TODAY. IT SEEMS TO ME THAT OUTSIDE OF HAVING PWATS AOA 2.0"... YOU'D BE HARD PRESSED TO PRIME THE LOCAL AIR MASS A WHOLE LOT BETTER THAN THIS. HWO/G-HWO HAS HIT LOCAL THREATS VERY WELL. ONLY ANTICIPATE A MINOR TWEAK OR TWO THERE. && .MARINE...MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTN WILL BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ENE TWD THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE WATERS BY LATE AFTN. THREAT FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 KNOTS AND HAIL WITH STORMS. WINDS HAVE BEEN IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE THE LAST 24 HOURS AT BUOY 41009 WEAKER THAN MODEL PROGS. WINDS SHOULD BACK TO SOUTHERLY (AND SE NEAR THE COAST WITH THE AFTN SEA BRZ) AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BUT WITH STRONGER GUSTS NEAR STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI LONG TERM...VOLKMER fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 147 PM MDT FRI JUN 4 2004 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY...OVER MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY EARLY TONIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD AHEAD OF DIGGING PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNDAY. TONIGHT...VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED ON WATER VAPOR OVER NORTHEAST UTAH WILL TOP THE RIDGE AXIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EJECT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND PALMER DIVIDE IN COLORADO AND THEN PROPAGATE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE TRI STATE AREA (CAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG...BRN SHEAR AROUND 100...0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE SHEAR AROUND 150). THESE PARAMETERS SUGGEST A FEW SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. SEVERE THREAT EARLY MAY EVOLVE INTO A HEAVY RAIN EVENT BY LATE EVENING GIVEN SLOW STORM MOVEMENT (0-6 KM MEAN WIND/RIGHT MOVERS LESS THAN 10 KTS) AND VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 130% OF NORMAL AND DEW POINTS STEADILY RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S). STORMS/MCS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SATURDAY...ETA/RUC FORECASTING COOL FRONT TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM IN POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT. MOST UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT SEVERE THREAT ANTICIPATED NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SUNDAY...MODEST MOISTURE RECOVERY EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON IN EASTERN COLORADO IN UPSLOPE REGIME...WHERE MUCAPE CAPE VALUES FORECAST BY ETA TO BE AROUND 500 J/KG IN THE FAR WESTERN AREAS. 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AS WELL...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEAK 0-6KM MEAN WIND AROUND 10 KTS SHOULD PREVENT THE STORMS FROM MAKING IT TO THE KANSAS STATE LINE BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. && .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH ECMWF SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...SUGGESTING THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE DRY SLOTTED. PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE WILL BE LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S CELSIUS SUPPORTING HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S THROUGH THURSDAY. AS FOR CONVECTION...700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 15C THIS PERIOD...A MODERATE TO STRONG CAP. MOISTURE AXIS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE ACTIVE THIS PERIOD...WITH LIFT MAXIMIZED IN NEBRASKA ON THE NOSE OF THE JET. THERE WILL ALSO BE OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE VERY STEEP IN THE WEST...SO IF THE CAP DOES BREAK VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WILL DEVELOP. IN SUMMARY...LIMITED MOISTURE AND STRONG CAP WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION BUT THE NOCTURNAL JET AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THOSE FACTORS. IN ADDITION...THIS WILL BE A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER. A LOW CONFIDENCE SLIGHT CHANCE POP SEEMS TO BE WARRANTED EACH DAY. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ JDK ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 350 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERN IS TIMING/COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER SAT/SAT NIGHT AND POTENTIAL FOR SVR STORMS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A GENERAL WNW FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS WITH NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST CURRENTLY OVER NRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WAS OVER FAR ERN MN/WRN WI AND WAS ONLY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME AC AND ENHANCED HIGH BASED AFTN CU. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRES WAS COVERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TO THE W...A SFC TROF OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS WAS SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR SOME CONVECTION THERE. 12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SWINGING MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE SE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SUN. THERE IS ALSO GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY. SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH WITH REGARD TO PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. GOING FCST HAS SITUATION WELL IN HAND. TRANQUIL NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH ONLY SCT AC SPREADING OVER THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING SUBTLE SHORTWAVE. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM COOLEST E TO WARMEST W AS IS TYPICAL WITH DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRES. GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE VERY SIMILAR (40S E TO LOWER 50S FAR W) AND LOOK FINE. UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE DIVES RATHER SHARPLY SE SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING COLD FRONT REACHING WRN LAKE SUPERIOR SAT EVENING. MODELS LOOK REASONABLE IN BRINGING PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO ABOUT AN INCH AND A THIRD OVER WRN UPPER MI BY SAT EVENING AS SWRLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. 12Z ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER OF ABOUT AN INCH AND A QUARTER OVER KS/OK READY TO ADVECT N. PLENTY OF MOISTURE...DIGGING SHORTWAVE...DECENT DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET STREAK OVER ONTARIO SUPPORTS HIGH POPS WITH SYSTEM. HAVE OPTED TO BUMP UP POPS TO LOW CATEGORICAL DURING PERIOD OF BEST FORCING SAT NIGHT. AS FOR START TIME...HEALTHY 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION IS NOTED DURING THE DAY SAT AS THETA-E RIDGE NOSES INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND TRIGGER FOR SCT CONVECTION MAY BE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ASSISTING CONVECTION IN ND AS IT SWINGS INTO THE AREA SAT AFTN AHEAD OF STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS FOR LATE AFTN OVER THE W. ETA MLCAPE (0-1KM) INCREASES TO 500-1000J/KG WHICH IS SIMILAR TO SBCAPE OBTAINED BY MODIFYING ETA FCST SOUNDINGS FOR SFC T/TD OF 75/54F. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS A LITTLE LACKING (AROUND 30KT)...BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD SVR STORMS. EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO END FROM W TO E WITH FROPA LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING...BUT THERE IS SOME CAUTION IN TIMING FRONT. UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE BOTH NOTABLY SLOWER THAN GFS/ETA WHICH MAY NOT ONLY DELAY PCPN ONSET OVER THE E SAT NIGHT...BUT ALSO DELAY ENDING PCPN ON SUN. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TRENDS IN FUTURE ETA/GFS RUNS. WITH DEPARTURE OF SYSTEM...EXPECT DRY AND PLEASANT WX REST OF SUN/MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. TUE THRU FRI...GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...ONE THAT IS DEFINITELY MORE SUMMERLIKE FOR THIS AREA WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS AND MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES SHIFTING N. MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE DETAILS RELATED TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WED. 00Z UKMET IS BY FAR THE STRONGEST...PUSHING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THRU THE UPPER LAKES TUE NIGHT TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY WED EVENING WITH HIGH PRES NOSING S INTO THE AREA FOR WED. 12Z UKMET HAS BACKED OFF THIS SOLUTION. ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE...BUT DOES HAVE FRONT DROPPING THRU THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND REACHING SRN LWR MI BY WED EVENING. CANADIAN/GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER ERN CONUS PREVAILING AND ONLY ALLOWING A WEAKENING FRONT TO DRIFT S INTO THE UPPER LAKES LATE WED. GFS THEN HANGS FRONT UP OVER THE UPPER LAKES. SINCE GFS HAS STRONG SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLES... WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS SOLUTION FOR MIDWEEK...BUT WILL ALSO GIVE SOME WEIGHT TO ECWMF. WILL CARRY SHRA/TSRA CHC TUE NIGHT/WED AS FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE AREA. WITH HEAT/HUMIDITY CONTINUING TO BUILD TO THE S...FRONT OVER THE UPPER LAKES MIGHT BECOME PRETTY ACTIVE THU/FRI AS PIECES OF ENERGY LIFT NE INTO UPPER MIDWEST FROM WRN TROF. AS FOR TEMPS...COULD GET QUITE WARM TUE AND WED THOUGH WED HIGHS WILL DEPEND ON THE UNCERTAIN TIMING OF FRONT. FOR NOW...80S SEEM LIKELY ALL AREAS BOTH DAYS EXCEPT CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE TO GIVE A DEFINITE SUMMER FEEL. THU/FRI WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER (CLOSE TO NORMAL) AS FRONT SHOULD BE OVER OR JUST S OF THE AREA. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1040 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2004 .DISCUSSION... RAIN CHANCES TODAY IS MAIN CONCERN ANOTHER SUNSPLASHED MORNING UNDERWAY OVR CWA WITH STRIPE OF AC MID CLOUDS HANGING TO THE W FM N OF LK SUPERIOR INTO NE/ECNTRL MN. CLOUDS ARE QUITE CONVECTIVE LOOKING DUE TO PROXIMITY TO H7 TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY...BUT UPSTREAM RADAR/SFC OBS SHOWING NO PCPN AS WAS CASE YDY AFTN WITH THIS FEATURE. SHORTWAVE IN PROCESS OF DIGGING MORE SE THAN E PER RUC/WV. RESULT IS LITTLE EWD PROGRESS OF MID CLOUD. H7 TEMPS BLO ZERO HAS BEEN GOOD SIGNAL WITH REGARD TO CU DEVELOPMENT LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND CWA IS WITHIN HEART OF THIS TODAY. SHOULD SEE SCT-BKN CU FIELD DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN MID 60S ARE REACHED. RUC/ETA DEPICT SOME QPF OVR SW ZONES BTWN 18Z-00Z BUT THINK AN OVERALL DRY AIRMASS (PWATS ONLY AS HIGH AS 0.65 AT INL THIS MORNING) AND LINGERING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN LLEVELS PROHIBITS ANY PCPN MENTION. LATEST 10KM RUC DOES SUGGEST SOME LK BREEZES THIS AFTN AS BLYR WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND LAKE/LAND TEMP DIFFERENCES BECOME SIGNIFICANT. MIGHT HAVE A STRAY SHOWER/SPRINKLE POP UP DUE TO ADDED CONVERGENCE ALONG LK BREEZE FRONT OVR W HALF BUT COVERAGE WOULD BE VERY LIMITED SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS/ZONES ATTM. MIXING TO H85-H8 SUPPORTS GOING FCST HIGHS OF 68-74 INLAND. WILL TWEAK MAX T GRIDS DOWN A BIT RIGHT ALONG LK SUPERIOR SHORE AS ONSHORE WIND KICKS IN. JLA && .PREV DISCUSSION... REST OF TONIGHT...LINGERING AC DEBRIS WILL GRDLY DISSAPPATE. COMBINATION OF LINGERING CLDS/HIER PWAT AND A STEADY SW FLOW BTWN SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC HI AND MSLP FALLS IN THE NRN PLAINS AHEAD OF DIGGING SHRTWV NOW IN NW CAN WL HOLD TMINS QUITE A BIT HIER THAN THIS MRNG. PREFER HIER ETA MOS FCST LO TEMPS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WRN ZNS WHERE SW GRADIENT FLOW IS STRONGER FOR MORE OF THE NGT. LOWER TEMPS OVER THE E CLOSER TO DEPARTING HI/WEAKER GRADIENT/LOWER PWAT. FOR SAT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING SHRTWV NOW OVER NW CAN DIGGING SE TO NR INL BY 00Z SUN IN NW FLOW ALF... WITH ALL TRENDING FASTER IN GENERATING QPF OVER AT LEAST THE W 1/3 OF THE CWA BY 00Z SUN IN ADVANCE OF ASSOCIATED SFC LO PRES TROF/AXIS OF HIER PWAT ARND 1.33 INCH. ALTHOUGH THE GFS APPEARS TO SUFFER FM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS...OTHER MODELS WHICH DO NOT FCST SIMILAR SCENARIO. VIGOROUS 12-18HR HGT FALLS OF ARND 100M...DEEP LYR H85-3 QVECTOR CNVGC...AND H7 UVV ACCOMPANYING SHRTWV PASSAGE LATE SAT/SAT NGT AS WELL AS SOME UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF 80KT H3 JET MAX ETA/GFS FCST IN ONTARIO AT 00Z ALONG WITH HEALTHY H85 THETA-E ADVCTN/DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVCTN... GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING ARRIVAL OF PCPN...AND GFS/ETA MOS POPS HI CHC/LIKELY ALL WARRANT MENTION OF POPS OVER AT LEAST THE W LATE IN THE AFTN. MODIFIED ETA FCST SDNGS ON SAT AFTN FOR IWD FOR SFC T/TD OF 71/55 AND H5 TEMP OF -14C YIELDS CAPE OF ONLY ABOUT 490 J/KG. BUT WL INCLUDE MENTION OF TSRA GIVEN DIURNAL MAX HTG TIME... FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS/ DIFFERENTIAL TEMP ADVCTN AND POTENTIAL FOR LOWER H5 TEMP (AS INDICATED BY NGM WITH -16C) WITH VIGOROUS DPVA IN THIS NW FLOW ALF. THIS PCPN WL SPREAD W-E SAT NGT AS SHRTWV/ DYNAMICS/SFC LO AND ATTENDANT COLD FNT PROGGED TO SHIFT E...THEN END OVER THE W OVERNGT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DNVA/DRIER AIR IN THE NW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LO/COLD FNT. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY SAT NGT GIVEN STRENGTH OF DYNAMICS. DRIER DAY ON TAP FOR SUN ONCE LINGERING SHRA DEPART ERN ZNS IN THE MRNG WITH APRCH OF SHRTWV RDG/SFC HI PRES. PREFER SOMEWHAT LOWER GFS FCST H85 TEMPS ON SUN GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHRTWV WITH TREND TOWARD LOWER GFS MOS TMAX IN THE 70 TO 75 RANGE AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK SUP IN NW FLOW BEHIND THE SFC LO PRES. COORDINATED WITH APX. KC && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 935 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004 .DISCUSSION...SFC TROF ISN'T MAKING MUCH EWD PROGRESS AND IS STILL OUT IN THE CENTRAL DAKS. A WEAK WMFNT EXTENDS E ALG THE ND/SD BORDER. TSTMS CONTINUE BUT HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT. A FEW CELLS ARE TRYING TO FIRE ALNG THE EWD EXTENSION OF THE WMFNT IN W-C MN SW OF AXN. ANOTHER AREA IS CONTINUING TO SIMMER IN ND CLOSE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER WHERE A POCKET OF DVNGC IS NOTED ON THE LATEST RUC. FOR THE EVENING FCST WE RAISED THE TEMPS IN OUR WRN CWA DUE TO CLOUDS AND WM AIR ADVTCN. OTHERWISE, WE MERELY TIMED THE CLOUDS AND PCPN AS WELL AS WE COULD. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED. && .DLH...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MN...NONE. WI...NONE. $$ CS mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 945 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004 .DISCUSSION... WILL DELAY ANY POSSIBLE UPDATE TO LATE MORNING. EXPECT SOME SUN TO WORK INTO THE SOUTH BEFORE NOON. PREFER A NEAR STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY SIMILAR TO THE RUC MODEL. SEE HIGHS NEAR 83 IN THE SOUTH. IN THE NORTH CAN NOT RULE OUT A LITTLE SUN AND AFTERNOON FORECAST TEMPERATURES PERHAPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOW BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH IN THIS AREA. REASONABLE HELICITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY TODAY AND A SMALL THREAT FOR A TORNADO. TO THE SOUTH THREAT LOOKS TO BE DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. && $$ RLH nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 924 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004 .DISCUSSION... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED MID LEVEL WAVE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. KILN SHOWS PRECIP SHIELD JUST GRAZING LEWIS COUNTY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH INVERTED TROF INTO EASTERN OHIO AND INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA. LATEST RUC AND ETA SHOW UPPER LOW MOVING FROM WESTERN KY TO SOUTHEAST OHIO BY THE END OF THE DAY BEFORE MOVING TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL GIVE A SHARP DELINEATION BETWEEN RAIN AND NO RAIN...SIMILAR TO A COLD SEASON SYSTEM. THIS DELINEATION WILL BE CLOSE TO OUR EASTERN FA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL IN HAND. UPDATE ALREADY SENT TO TWEAK POPS IN THE TRI-STATE AND RESOLVE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WORDING. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. KY...NONE. OH...NONE. && $$ TIPTON oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 950 PM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004 .UPDATE... MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AS OF 0130Z... BUT KGSP RADAR STILL SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS NEARBY. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 00Z RUC...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT SOME WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION IS POSSIBLE AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS OFF TO THE NORTH. MOST RECENT LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS SOME RESIDUAL CAPE TO WORK WITH ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA. WILL RETAIN A LOW CHANCE POP UNTIL MIDNIGHT...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST THEREAFTER. TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY MIGHT BE A DEGREE OR TWO ON THE COOL SIDE AND THAT MINOR ADJUSTMENT WILL BE MADE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED AT 215 PM SHORT TERM... UPPER LOW OVER FAR E KY MOVG INTO WV-VA AND TRACKING SLOWLY NE. WEAK SFC FRONT LIES ACROSS PIEDMONT ALONG S BORDER CWA AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONLY VERY SLOWLY E. PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING WITH EARLIER CONVECTION AND CHANCE OF SCT SHWRS AND TSTMS CONT INTO THIS EVE WITH STROGER STORMS E OF AREA. UPPER TROF MOVES E TONIGHT AND LOW LEVELS DRY OUT FOR SAT. ON SUN HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SE AND BRUSH N CWA. MOISTURE IS A BIT SPARSE SUN THOUGH AND ETA SOUNDINGS SHOW ATMOSPHERE TO BE CAPPED BY WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...COULD STILL SEE ISOLD AFTN-EVE CONVECTION MAINLY MTNS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE POINT TOWARD CHANCE SHWRS AND TSTMS FOR MON AND HAVE RAISED POPS OVER MTNS SLIGHTLY. LONG TERM... RIDGE WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PER NCEP/S MANUAL PROGS AND THE 00 UTC GFS...SFC FRONT WL BE STATIONARY SOMEWHERE ROUGHLY ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER TUE THROUGH THU...WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT BY LATE THU INTO FRI. ALOFT...A WEAK SHORT WAVE WL BECOME ORPHANED SOMEWHERE OVER THE SRN MID ATLANTIC STATES TUE AS HGHTS RISE QUICKLY TO ITS N. A PERSISTENT AXIS OF HIGH LAYER RH VALUES AND RATHER COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST S OF THIS FEATURE...RESULTING IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS BOTH DAYS. APPEARS THAT WE MAY DRY OUT A LITTLE THU. HOWEVER...PER HPC/S PCPN NUMBERS AND TO AGREE WITH MOST OF THE NEIGHBORS...WL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE ZONES. BY FRI SW FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE WITH A RESULTANT INCREASE IN GFS RH VALUES. THEREFORE...WL ONCE AGAIN CARRY AN AFTN POP NEXT FRI. RB/BPM && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ MOORE sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 840 PM MDT FRI JUN 4 2004 .DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST WYOMING. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WYOMING. LATEST RUC STILL INDICATING STRONG LIFT OVER THE CWA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CHANGED WORDING IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES TO NOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO OTHER CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. && UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .SD...NONE. .WY...NONE. $$ JS sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR PUBLIC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1111 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004 .DISCUSSION... 1111 PM UPDATE. UPDATED ZONES TO DROP SVR TSTM WATCH. STORMS IN NW TX HAVE ACCELERATED SOUTHEAST AND WILL MOVE INTO NW PARTS OF N TEXAS IN TWO TO THREE HOURS IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER. && .740 PM PUBLIC UPDATE. ZONES UPDATED FOR NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. 59 && .620 PM PUBLIC UPDATE. RAISED POPS SOUTH WHERE STORMS WERE ONGOING AND LOWERED POPS NORTH UNTIL MIDNIGHT THEN RAISED POPS NORTH AND LOWERED POPS SOUTH. STORMS IN THE TX PNHDL LOOK POISED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ALONG BOUNDARY FROM OK STORMS. THIS WOULD PUT STORMS INTO NRN 1/2 NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. 59 && .AVIATION... SCT SVR TSRA NOW GOING OVER SW 1/2 OF N TX AND SHOULD STAY TO THE SW OF D/FW TAF SITES...THO AN ISOLD TSRA/SCT SHRA CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR THIS PTN OF TRACON THROUGH THE EVE. RUC LOOKS TO BE SUPERIOR OVER THE META AND SOMEWHAT BETTER ON MORE ISOLD/SCT COVERAGE OVER THIS REGION AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...SO WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR TAF SITES...PARTICULARLY KACT WHICH SHOULD SEE VCTS THROUGH 02Z OR SO...BEFORE PSBLY CATCHING ERN PTNS OF A LINEAR MCS THRU 05Z OR SO. THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW TO BE LIGHT ESELY THRU 15Z SAT...PD THRU 05Z SAT FOR KACT WILL HAVE SOME TEMPO +TSRA WITH IFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS...ALG WITH STG VRB WINDS FOR OUTFLOW GUSTS. PROB30 GROUP LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR AFTER 21Z SAT AS ANOTHER...LESS IMPRESSIVE S/W ARRIVES IN WEAKENING NW FLOW ALOFT...BUT ARRIVES RIGHT AT PRIME HEATING OF THE DAY WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE AT LEAST MODERATE. 05/ && .PREV PUBLIC DISCUSSION... 406 PM CDT SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW THIS WEEKEND...KEEPING NORTH TEXAS WEATHER UNSETTLED. HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION...WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUIETER WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS WITH PERHAPS SOME SEABREEZE ACTIVITY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A TENDENCY TO BE ERRATIC IN HANDLING THE EVENTS THIS PAST WEEK AND THE NEXT TWO DAYS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT. FOR TONIGHT...CURRENT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS EAST...AND WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT AM CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAINS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. WITH THE GROUND STILL QUITE WET IN MANY AREAS...RUNOFF WILL BE EXCESSIVE IN URBAN SETTINGS SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...MAINLY THIS EVENING. TIMING OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE NOT AS CLEAR. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A RESPITE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THOUGH...THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 68 86 70 87 / 60 40 20 30 WACO, TX 70 89 71 90 / 40 30 20 30 PARIS, TX 66 80 68 85 / 60 50 20 30 DENTON, TX 68 86 70 86 / 60 40 20 30 MCKINNEY, TX 67 84 69 86 / 60 50 20 30 DALLAS, TX 68 86 70 87 / 60 40 20 30 TERRELL, TX 67 85 70 86 / 60 40 20 30 CORSICANA, TX 68 86 71 87 / 60 40 20 30 TEMPLE, TX 70 89 72 90 / 40 30 20 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES TXC001...TXC035...TXC085...TXC093...TXC097...TXC113...TXC121... TXC133...TXC139...TXC143...TXC147...TXC161...TXC181...TXC193... TXC213...TXC217...TXC221...TXC231...TXC237...TXC251...TXC257... TXC289...TXC293...TXC309...TXC337...TXC349...TXC363...TXC367... TXC379...TXC397...TXC425...TXC429...TXC439...TXC467...TXC497... TXC503. && $$ 42 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR PUBLIC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 740 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004 .740 PM PUBLIC UPDATE. ZONES UPDATED FOR NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. 59 && .620 PM PUBLIC UPDATE. RAISED POPS SOUTH WHERE STORMS WERE ONGOING AND LOWERED POPS NORTH UNTIL MIDNIGHT THEN RAISED POPS NORTH AND LOWERED POPS SOUTH. STORMS IN THE TX PNHDL LOOK POISED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ALONG BOUNDARY FROM OK STORMS. THIS WOULD PUT STORMS INTO NRN 1/2 NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. 59 && .AVIATION... SCT SVR TSRA NOW GOING OVER SW 1/2 OF N TX AND SHOULD STAY TO THE SW OF D/FW TAF SITES...THO AN ISOLD TSRA/SCT SHRA CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR THIS PTN OF TRACON THROUGH THE EVE. RUC LOOKS TO BE SUPERIOR OVER THE META AND SOMEWHAT BETTER ON MORE ISOLD/SCT COVERAGE OVER THIS REGION AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...SO WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR TAF SITES...PARTICULARLY KACT WHICH SHOULD SEE VCTS THROUGH 02Z OR SO...BEFORE PSBLY CATCHING ERN PTNS OF A LINEAR MCS THRU 05Z OR SO. THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW TO BE LIGHT ESELY THRU 15Z SAT...PD THRU 05Z SAT FOR KACT WILL HAVE SOME TEMPO +TSRA WITH IFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS...ALG WITH STG VRB WINDS FOR OUTFLOW GUSTS. PROB30 GROUP LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR AFTER 21Z SAT AS ANOTHER...LESS IMPRESSIVE S/W ARRIVES IN WEAKENING NW FLOW ALOFT...BUT ARRIVES RIGHT AT PRIME HEATING OF THE DAY WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE AT LEAST MODERATE. 05/ && .PREV PUBLIC DISCUSSION... 406 PM CDT SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW THIS WEEKEND...KEEPING NORTH TEXAS WEATHER UNSETTLED. HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION...WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUIETER WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS WITH PERHAPS SOME SEABREEZE ACTIVITY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A TENDENCY TO BE ERRATIC IN HANDLING THE EVENTS THIS PAST WEEK AND THE NEXT TWO DAYS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT. FOR TONIGHT...CURRENT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS EAST...AND WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT AM CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAINS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. WITH THE GROUND STILL QUITE WET IN MANY AREAS...RUNOFF WILL BE EXCESSIVE IN URBAN SETTINGS SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...MAINLY THIS EVENING. TIMING OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE NOT AS CLEAR. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A RESPITE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THOUGH...THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 68 86 70 87 / 60 40 20 30 WACO, TX 70 89 71 90 / 40 30 20 30 PARIS, TX 66 80 68 85 / 60 50 20 30 DENTON, TX 68 86 70 86 / 60 40 20 30 MCKINNEY, TX 67 84 69 86 / 60 50 20 30 DALLAS, TX 68 86 70 87 / 60 40 20 30 TERRELL, TX 67 85 70 86 / 60 40 20 30 CORSICANA, TX 68 86 71 87 / 60 40 20 30 TEMPLE, TX 70 89 72 90 / 40 30 20 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES TXC001...TXC035...TXC085...TXC093...TXC097...TXC113...TXC121... TXC133...TXC139...TXC143...TXC147...TXC161...TXC181...TXC193... TXC213...TXC217...TXC221...TXC231...TXC237...TXC251...TXC257... TXC289...TXC293...TXC309...TXC337...TXC349...TXC363...TXC367... TXC379...TXC397...TXC425...TXC429...TXC439...TXC467...TXC497... TXC503. && $$ 42 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR PUBLIC NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 620 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004 .620 PM PUBLIC UPDATE. RAISED POPS SOUTH WHERE STORMS WERE ONGOING AND LOWERED POPS NORTH UNTIL MIDNIGHT THEN RAISED POPS NORTH AND LOWERED POPS SOUTH. STORMS IN THE TX PNHDL LOOK POISED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ALONG BOUNDARY FROM OK STORMS. THIS WOULD PUT STORMS INTO NRN 1/2 NORTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. 59 && .AVIATION... SCT SVR TSRA NOW GOING OVER SW 1/2 OF N TX AND SHOULD STAY TO THE SW OF D/FW TAF SITES...THO AN ISOLD TSRA/SCT SHRA CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR THIS PTN OF TRACON THROUGH THE EVE. RUC LOOKS TO BE SUPERIOR OVER THE META AND SOMEWHAT BETTER ON MORE ISOLD/SCT COVERAGE OVER THIS REGION AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...SO WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR TAF SITES...PARTICULARLY KACT WHICH SHOULD SEE VCTS THROUGH 02Z OR SO...BEFORE PSBLY CATCHING ERN PTNS OF A LINEAR MCS THRU 05Z OR SO. THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW TO BE LIGHT ESELY THRU 15Z SAT...PD THRU 05Z SAT FOR KACT WILL HAVE SOME TEMPO +TSRA WITH IFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS...ALG WITH STG VRB WINDS FOR OUTFLOW GUSTS. PROB30 GROUP LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR AFTER 21Z SAT AS ANOTHER...LESS IMPRESSIVE S/W ARRIVES IN WEAKENING NW FLOW ALOFT...BUT ARRIVES RIGHT AT PRIME HEATING OF THE DAY WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE AT LEAST MODERATE. 05/ && .PREV PUBLIC DISCUSSION... 406 PM CDT SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW THIS WEEKEND...KEEPING NORTH TEXAS WEATHER UNSETTLED. HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION...WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUIETER WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS WITH PERHAPS SOME SEABREEZE ACTIVITY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A TENDENCY TO BE ERRATIC IN HANDLING THE EVENTS THIS PAST WEEK AND THE NEXT TWO DAYS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT. FOR TONIGHT...CURRENT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS EAST...AND WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT AM CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAINS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. WITH THE GROUND STILL QUITE WET IN MANY AREAS...RUNOFF WILL BE EXCESSIVE IN URBAN SETTINGS SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...MAINLY THIS EVENING. TIMING OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE NOT AS CLEAR. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A RESPITE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THOUGH...THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 68 86 70 87 / 60 40 20 30 WACO, TX 70 89 71 90 / 40 30 20 30 PARIS, TX 66 80 68 85 / 60 50 20 30 DENTON, TX 68 86 70 86 / 60 40 20 30 MCKINNEY, TX 67 84 69 86 / 60 50 20 30 DALLAS, TX 68 86 70 87 / 60 40 20 30 TERRELL, TX 67 85 70 86 / 60 40 20 30 CORSICANA, TX 68 86 71 87 / 60 40 20 30 TEMPLE, TX 70 89 72 90 / 40 30 20 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES TXC001...TXC035...TXC085...TXC093...TXC097...TXC113...TXC121... TXC133...TXC139...TXC143...TXC147...TXC161...TXC181...TXC193... TXC213...TXC217...TXC221...TXC231...TXC237...TXC251...TXC257... TXC289...TXC293...TXC309...TXC337...TXC349...TXC363...TXC367... TXC379...TXC397...TXC425...TXC429...TXC439...TXC467...TXC497... TXC503. && $$ 42 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 545 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004 .AVIATION... SCT SVR TSRA NOW GOING OVER SW 1/2 OF N TX AND SHOULD STAY TO THE SW OF D/FW TAF SITES...THO AN ISOLD TSRA/SCT SHRA CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR THIS PTN OF TRACON THROUGH THE EVE. RUC LOOKS TO BE SUPERIOR OVER THE META AND SOMEWHAT BETTER ON MORE ISOLD/SCT COVERAGE OVER THIS REGION AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING...SO WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY FOR TAF SITES...PARTICULARLY KACT WHICH SHOULD SEE VCTS THROUGH 02Z OR SO...BEFORE PSBLY CATCHING ERN PTNS OF A LINEAR MCS THRU 05Z OR SO. THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW TO BE LIGHT ESELY THRU 15Z SAT...PD THRU 05Z SAT FOR KACT WILL HAVE SOME TEMPO +TSRA WITH IFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS...ALG WITH STG VRB WINDS FOR OUTFLOW GUSTS. PROB30 GROUP LIKELY NEEDED AGAIN FOR AFTER 21Z SAT AS ANOTHER...LESS IMPRESSIVE S/W ARRIVES IN WEAKENING NW FLOW ALOFT...BUT ARRIVES RIGHT AT PRIME HEATING OF THE DAY WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE AT LEAST MODERATE. 05/ && .PREV PUBLIC DISCUSSION... 406 PM CDT SEVERAL MORE TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW THIS WEEKEND...KEEPING NORTH TEXAS WEATHER UNSETTLED. HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION...WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUIETER WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS WITH PERHAPS SOME SEABREEZE ACTIVITY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A TENDENCY TO BE ERRATIC IN HANDLING THE EVENTS THIS PAST WEEK AND THE NEXT TWO DAYS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH DIFFERENT. FOR TONIGHT...CURRENT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT SPREADS EAST...AND WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT AM CONCERNED ABOUT HEAVY RAINS...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. WITH THE GROUND STILL QUITE WET IN MANY AREAS...RUNOFF WILL BE EXCESSIVE IN URBAN SETTINGS SO WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY...MAINLY THIS EVENING. TIMING OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES OVER THE WEEKEND ARE NOT AS CLEAR. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A RESPITE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY THOUGH...THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 68 86 70 87 / 60 40 20 30 WACO, TX 70 89 71 90 / 40 30 20 30 PARIS, TX 66 80 68 85 / 60 50 20 30 DENTON, TX 68 86 70 86 / 60 40 20 30 MCKINNEY, TX 67 84 69 86 / 60 50 20 30 DALLAS, TX 68 86 70 87 / 60 40 20 30 TERRELL, TX 67 85 70 86 / 60 40 20 30 CORSICANA, TX 68 86 71 87 / 60 40 20 30 TEMPLE, TX 70 89 72 90 / 40 30 20 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 800 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ZONES TXC001...TXC035...TXC085...TXC093...TXC097...TXC113...TXC121... TXC133...TXC139...TXC143...TXC147...TXC161...TXC181...TXC193... TXC213...TXC217...TXC221...TXC231...TXC237...TXC251...TXC257... TXC289...TXC293...TXC309...TXC337...TXC349...TXC363...TXC367... TXC379...TXC397...TXC425...TXC429...TXC439...TXC467...TXC497... TXC503. && $$ 42 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 500 PM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004 .UPDATE...SCT RW AND A FEW TRWS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF THE SEA BREEZE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. TEMPS REMAIN IN THE UPR 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES IN THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS W/ DEWPOINTS NEAR 70. THIS IS PRODUCING RELATIVELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN WRN AREAS AND SEE NO REASON WHY THIS CONVECTION WILL NOT CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH TOWARDS THE LRD REGION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WILL THEREFORE UPDATE IN INCREASE POPS IN WRN AREAS THIS EVENING. ALSO...A STORMS ARE CURRENTLY FORMING SOUTH OF FTW ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THAT REGION. IF THIS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP INTO A GOOD MCS...IT SHOULD MOVE STRAIGHT SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST ACCORDING TO CORFIDI VECTORS AND AS DEPICTED BY THE RUC AND MESO ETA. WILL NOT RAISE POPS IN THE ERN HALF OF THE REGION YET...BUT MAY DO SO IN A LATER UPDATE IT CONVECTION ORGANIZES BETTER TO THE NORTH. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)...MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE NEAR THE VICTORIA AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE SLOWLY MOVES INLAND. ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER SOUTH OF VICTORIA AND SLIM CHANCE WILL EXIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS. LATEST ETA MODEL DEPICTS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NORTH OF ABILENE. INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS SOUTHEAST TO NORTH OF THE VICTORIA AREA. THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN SIZE AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT BUT MOST OF THE ACTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR NORTHEAST ZONES OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. SURFACE PRESSURES FALL OVER WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND WILL SEE A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCEC LEVELS FOR THE BAYS AND GULF WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER BRIEFLY BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ADVECT WARMER TEMPS AND DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS INTO SOUTH TEXAS SATURDAY. WILL GO NEAR MAV GUIDANCE TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND NO POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. LONG-TERM (SUNDAY THRU FRIDAY)...NOT AN EASY FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS. PATTERN CHANCE IS EXPECTED AS H5 RIDGING AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOWS SIGNS OF ENDING AS RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD LEAVE THE CWA IN A RELATIVELY SUBSIDENT STATE ON SUNDAY...WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.4 INCHES. WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF ZONES AT THIS TIME. SAME GOES FOR MONDAY AS FAR AS PRECIP CHANCES ARE CONCERNED. DO NOT THINK THAT POSSIBILITY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION BUT WILL SHOW THE 10 POPS IN THE GRIDS. THE FORECAST GETS VERY INTERESTING BY TUESDAY. PWAT VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE BY THIS TIME AS PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AT THE SAME TIME...A LARGE H5 TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND AFFECTING SOUTH TEXAS. TIMING IS GOING TO BE TRICKY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO LOW-END CHANCE POPS BY TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL NOT RAISE CHANCES FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS MODELS STILL DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. CANADIAN MODEL AND THE GFS BOTH GRAB ON TO A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO. THE GUIDANCE PULLS THE SYSTEM ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY. ETA SHOWS NO SIGNS OF PICKING THIS SYSTEM UP AND SLOWLY SPINS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. WITHOUT MORE CONSENSUS AND BETTER CONFIDENCE DO NOT FEEL THE NEED TO CHANGE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOO MUCH. WILL LEAVE TEMPERATURES ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD PROHIBIT TOO MUCH INSOLATION. THESE TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL. HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS SCENARIO ALTHOUGH A LOT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 75 93 76 90 76 / 10 10 05 10 10 VICTORIA 73 92 74 92 74 / 20 20 05 10 10 LAREDO 77 103 77 100 77 / 30 05 05 10 05 ALICE 74 97 75 96 74 / 10 10 05 10 10 ROCKPORT 78 90 78 89 77 / 20 10 05 10 10 COTULLA 73 101 74 96 76 / 10 05 05 10 05 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ MJG...UPDATE 89/TMT...SHORT-TERM 94/MJ...LONG-TERM tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1020 AM CDT FRI JUN 4 2004 .DISCUSSION...A WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHED INTO THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED A LITTLE NORTH TO ROUGHLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND HOUSTON. WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO LINGER NEAR THE NORTHEAST ZONES WITH A BIT HIGHER MOISTURE POOLING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACCORDING TO LATEST ETA SOUNDINGS. ETA SHOWS PWATS NEAR 1.85 INCHES NEAR VICTORIA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED T-STORMS TO FIRE OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREA AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE WITH RUC/ETA SHOWING CAPES FROM 3000-3500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX FROM -8 TO -10 DEGREES C THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK WIND FIELD AND RELATIVELY HIGH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. FARTHER SOUTH...WILL CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED T-STORMS FORMING ALONG THE SEABREEZE FOR INLAND SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 92 75 92 76 90 / 20 20 20 05 10 VICTORIA 92 71 92 74 92 / 40 30 30 05 10 LAREDO 101 77 102 77 102 / 20 20 10 05 10 ALICE 95 74 97 75 97 / 30 20 20 05 10 ROCKPORT 88 75 89 78 89 / 20 30 30 05 10 COTULLA 97 73 100 74 100 / 20 20 10 05 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 89/TMT tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 953 AM EDT FRI JUN 4 2004 .UPDATE... FA IN BTWN SYS TDA WITH DRY NW FLOW ALF AND SFC HI PRES IN CNTRL. VIS SATL SHWS SOME LINGERING SC ACRS NE VT IN AREA OF COOLER MID LVL TEMPS. TMPS ALF WRM TDA SO XPCT DECRG CLDS DURG AFTN. 12Z RAOBS RATHER DRY AND ONLY XPCT MINIMAL CU DEVT ELSW SO MOSUNNY LOOKS GOOD. CRNT FCST TMPS NR 70 ALSO LOOKS GOOD. UPDATED NE KINGDM FOR MORE MRNG CLDS THEN MOSUNNY AFTN. && KJC *** PREV DISCUSSION *** HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE FA FROM THE WEST ON TODAY THRU SAT. STORM SYS TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST OF THE USA TODAY THRU SUN. CF TO MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION ON SUN. S/W TO MOVE UP ACRS THE FA FROM THE SW ON SAT NITE AND EARLY ON SUN. 00-03Z 20KM "DEVELOPMENT" RUC SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE M60S-L70S TODAY WITH SFC WINDS W-NW AT 5-15 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE L-M70S TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO CONT TO AFFECT HE FA TODAY. RUC SHOWS MOSUNNY SKIES WITH NO PCPN ACRS THE FA TODAY. WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA TODAY...THEN WK WAA FOR TONITE THRU SUN. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR ADVECTION TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA LATER TONITE AND ON SAT/SAT NITE. SOME LOW-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE FA AGAIN ON SAT THRU SUN. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON THRU SAT. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT THE SRN TIER ZONES LATE ON SAT AND THE ENTIRE FA ON SAT NITE AND SUN. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE 0.4-0.8" ON SAT AND AROUND AN INCH ON SAT NITE/SUN. IR SAT PIX SHOW SOME LOW CLDS ACRS PARTS OF VT ATTM. WILL PLAN ON HANDLING ANY CLDS/FG WITH THE STF EARLY THIS MORNING AND CONT TO MENTION DRY WX TODAY AND TONITE. HAVE GENERALLY SCALED BACK ON POPS FOR THE SAT THRU SUN TIME-FRAME AS THE NEXT SYS APPEARS TO BE A LIL SLOWER AND DESTINED TO MAYBE AFFECT MOSTLY REGIONS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. LIKELY POPS ACRS SRN VT ON SAT NITE STILL SEEM OK...BUT CHC POPS SHOULD DO IT OTRW. T1MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE M30S-M40S TONITE AND BASICALLY 40-50F ON SAT NITE. T1MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE M70S ON SAT AND LOOK A TAD WARM...BUT HAVE GENERALLY RAISED TEMPS FROM THE PREVIOUS SAT FCST WITH LESS CLDS/PCPN EXPECTED THEN. WILL CONT TO MENTION SCT FROST ACRS THE NRN ADIRONDACKS FOR TONITE AND LET THE DAY-SHIFT HAVE A CRACK AT ISSUING ANY FROST HEADLINES. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST BEYOND SUN FOR NOW. WRK ZONES AND PRELIM ISC GRIDS SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ATTM. FINAL ZFP BY 4 AM. .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 330 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 2004 ...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTN... ...FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT TO FL WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK... .DISCUSSION... CURRENT...BROAD 500MB TROUGH STILL PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANALYSIS PUT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. 40KM RUC ANALYSIS PLACED AN EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE OVER EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO POISED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGES WERE SHOWING AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF/BIG BEND SECTION AND AREA NWS DOPPLER RADARS WERE DETECTING SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ONSHORE ASSOCD WITH THIS S/W TROUGH. TODAY/TONIGHT...SERIES OF VORT MAXES/MINOR SHORT WAVE IMPULSES SWING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGER 500MB TROUGH THAT STILL IS PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. FORECASTS SHOW A GOOD EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLISION FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY TO ORANGE COUNTY SOUTH TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STEERING WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY... 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS AND LESS THE FURTHER SOUTH ONE GOES...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER.../1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES/ ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN AND URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN. WE EXPECT TO GO INTO WARNING OPERATIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW WITH H5 TEMPS REMAINING AT -9C COMBINES WITH WEAK INHIBITION...SFC HEATING AND MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATM TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AGAIN TODAY. STRONGEST STORMS WILL OCCUR INVOF MESOSCALE (SEA/LAKE BREEZE) BOUNDARY COLLISIONS PRODUCING DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESP NEAR MULTIPLE BOUNDARY MERGERS. AREAS LEAST FAVORED FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL BE MARTIN/ST LUCIE COASTS WITH 40% CHANCE. SUN...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT FURTHER NORTH TO BETWEEN LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE CAPE. STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO STEER STORMS TOWARD THE N/NE...ALLOWING AFTN STORMS TO PUSH BACK TO THE EAST COAST..ESP THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COAST. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS SHOULD FINALLY SETTLE BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AS MID LEVEL TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM AND PCP WATER VALUES BEGIN TO LOWER. THIS MEANS 50% INTERIOR/NORTH COAST AND 40% CENTRAL/SOUTH COAST. MON-WED...LL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS NORTHWARD...CLEARING OUR FA BY LATE TUE. UPPER HIGH REBUILDS OVER THE AREA...REBUILDING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. AS A RESULT...WILL SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN POPS ACROSS THE BOARD DURING THIS PERIOD. THE INCREASINGLY DEEP SE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL FOCUS AFTN/EVE CONVECTION OVER INTERIOR AND WEST SIDE OF THE FL PENINSULA RATHER THAN THE EAST SIDE BY TUE AND WED. ALTHOUGH THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROTECT EAST COAST FROM AFTN/EVE STORMS...WILL CALL FOR ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS FOR THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS DURING THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS TUE-THU. THU-FRI...UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS GFS PROGS NEXT UPPER LVL S/W TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE NE GULF COAST. WILL INCREASE POPS BACK TO CLIMO RANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH FLOW VEERING TO SOUTHERLY FRI AFTN AHEAD OF NEXT PROGD UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. && .MARINE...MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF THE PENINSULA. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 34 KTS...HAIL AND FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES...ESP NORTH OF FPR INLET. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. && .PRELIM NUMBERS... DAB 89 71 87 71 / 60 40 50 20 MCO 90 71 90 71 / 60 40 50 20 MLB 89 72 87 72 / 60 30 40 20 VRB 89 72 87 72 / 50 30 40 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...WIMMER LONG TERM....KELLY fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 311 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT. NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALONG WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS...MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME LATCHING ON TO THE DOMINANT SHORTWAVE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE BEGINNING TO MASK WEAK SFC TROUGH...ONE PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW MOVING THROUGH KFSD ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK CONVECTION. FEEL THE GFS AND RUC HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION WITH MAIN SHORT WAVE PASSING JUST SW AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ANOTHER PASSING TO THE NORTH. AS ALLUDED TO LAST NIGHT...THIS WOULD SUGGEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TO BE SPLIT. 07Z SFC ANALYSIS BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THIS AS WELL WITH PRESSURE FALLS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST. MUCH OF THE EAST WILL BE DRY TODAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES TONIGHT. WILL DECREASE POPS IN THIS AREA AS WELL. SEVERE THREAT TODAY STILL APPEARS TO BE LOW. CLOUD COVER TODAY COMBINED WITH LITTLE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TROUGH SHOULD KEEP INSTABILITY LOW. A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT ANY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE MARGINAL. SUNDAY WILL BRING A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND THEN THE FIRST REAL TASTE OF SUMMER ARRIVES FOR THE BEGINNING TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AS VERY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE STATE. LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DONAVON EFFECTIVE 7 AM JUNE 8 2004...THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER FOR THIS PRODUCT WILL CHANGE FROM AFDDSM TO AFDDMX. THE WMO HEADER WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. PLEASE ENSURE THAT ANY NEEDED CHANGES ARE COMPLETED BY JUNE 8 2004. ia AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 330 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2004 .DISCUSSION... 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SPLIT FLOW ACRS NAMERICA. SRN BRANCH DOMINATES MOST OF CONUS...WITH WNW FLOW ALF OVER THE GRT LKS BTWN RDG OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROFFING ACRS THE E. NRN BRANCH FLOW DOMINATED BY VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY DOWNSTREAM OF RDG IN WRN CAN. SEVERAL SHRTWVS OF INTEREST EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LARGER SCALE FLOW. THE ONE CLOSEST TO THE CWA IS OVER WI AND IS RATHER SUBTLE...WITH IMPACTS LIMITED BY DRY/STABLE AIR SHOWN ON 00Z GRB SDNG (00Z KINX 7) AND SFC-H85 ACYC FLOW ACRS THE GRT LKS ON WRN FLANK OF SFC RDG OVER SE ONTARIO. SCT-BKN AC LINGERING OVER THE W HALF OF FA...DEBRIS FM ELEVATED CU THAT FORMED UNDER H7 THERMAL TROF YDAY AFTN. SKIES MOCLR TO THE E. FAIRLY HEALTHY SHRTWV IN SRN BRANCH FLOW NOTED MOVING INTO ND FRI EVNG...AND THIS SHRTWV TRIGGERING QUITE A BIT OF SHRA/TSRA FM NR LK WINNIPEG S THRU THE DAKOTAS ALG ACCOMPANYING SFC-H85 TROF AND UNDER H5 THERMAL TROF (00Z TEMP ARND -15C)/AXIS OF HIER PWAT 1.00-1.25 INCHES. 00Z ABR SDNG SHOWS STEEP LAPSE RATES THRU THE ENTIRE TROP. A POTENT SHRTWV WITH 00Z H5 TEMP DOWN TO -21C AT CYQD NOTED IN NRN BRANCH FLOW OVER NRN MANITOBA. DARKENING NOTED IN CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN ON WV IMAGERY IS INDICATIVE OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYS. BUT ND SHRTWV APPEARS TO BE CUTTING OFF MAJORITY OF MSTR INFLOW TO THIS MORE SYS. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE REVOLVE ARND TIMING/COVG/INTENSITY OF SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM SHRTWVS. TDAY WL START OFF ON THE QUIET SIDE WITH ACYC FLOW/DRY AIRMASS ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HI STILL DOMINATING. BUT ETA/NGM/GFS SHOW ND SHRTWV REACHING WRN LK SUP BY 18Z AND ACCOMPANYING DPVA/H85-5 QVECTOR CNVGC MOVING INTO THE WRN CWA THEN WITH ASSOCIATED SFC TROF APRCHG THE WRN COUNTIES ARND 00Z. NGM AND ETA ESPECIALLY FCST VIGOROUS H85 THETA-E ADVCTN (ETA SHOWS H85 WINDS 30-35KT) UNDER WEAK H5 CAD (RELATIVELY LGT WNDS AT H5 ARND 30KT) IN VEERING WIND PROFILE. HOWEVER...ALL 3 MODELS SHOW H85-5 LAPSE RATES REACHING ONLY ARND 6.0C/KM BY 18Z-24Z SAT. ETA FCST SDNGS FOR IWD-IMT BEFORE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION KICKS IN FOR SFC T/TD 72/55 (55 DWPT MAY BE ON THE HI SIDE GIVEN VERY DRY AIR DEPICTED ON 00Z INL/MPX SDNGS AND IN AIRMASS SOURCE RGN OVER SRN WI) YIELD ONLY UP TO 550 J/KG. CONSIDERING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY ARND 30KT WITH LTL VERTICAL SHEAR SFC-H5...AND WITH FAIRLY MODEST LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY THINK SPC DESIGNATION OF FA IN SLGT RISK FOR SVR TSRA A BIT OVERDONE EVEN THOUGH WBZ FCST IN FVRBL 9K FT RANGE. BUT FCST TSRA STILL LOOK ON TARGET GIVEN VIGOROUS DYNAMICS/MAX SOLAR HTG TIME EVEN IF INSTABILITY/SHEAR NOT THE BEST. ETA/NGM MOS SHOW VERY SML CHC FOR SVR TSRA EVEN THOUGH TSRA CHC FAIRLY HI. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO LIKELY OVER THE WRN ZNS IN THE AFTN...WITH CHC POPS ACRS THE CNTRL...EVEN THOUGH ETA INDICATES ONTARIO JET MAX WL BE TOO FAR N FOR UPR DVGC IN RRQ TO IMPACT CWA (GFS STILL FCSTS THIS FEATURE CLOSE ENUF). PCPN WL ARRIVE OVER THE ERN ZNS SAT EVNG AS ND SHRTWV SHIFTS EWD. ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF THIS SHRTWV TO THE E BY MIDNGT SAT NGT WL LIKELY TAKE THE DEEPER MSTR WITH IT...STRONGER NRN BRANCH SHRTWV IN NRN MANITOBA FCST TO DIG TOWARD NW LK SUP BY 12Z SUN AND PROLONG DPVA/ HGT FALLS/PCPN CHCS. ALTHOUGH ETA SHOWS VIGOROUS DRYING/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC DVLPG OVRNGT...MODEL HANGS ON TO H7-3 QVECTOR DVGC/DPVA AND SOME UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF ACCOMPANYING JET MAX ALMOST AS LONG AS GFS. SO WL FOLLOW SLOWER TIMING OF THE GFS ON DEPARTURE OF SYS SAT NGT...WITH CHC POPS LINGERING OVER THE E INTO EARLY SUN MRNG. LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT TSRA CHCS FARTHER E AFTER SUNSET...BUT VIGOROUS DYNAMICS WL STILL SUSTAIN ISOLD TSRA. AFTER DEPARTURE OF ANY LINGERING SHRA FM THE ERN ZNS SUN MRNG... THE WX WL BE DOMINATED BY THE ARRIVAL OF ACYC FLOW AND DRIER AIR...FIRST ALF THEN AT THE SFC. ALTHOUGH ETA FCST SDNGS SHOW STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES ACRS THE SRN TIER ZNS INTO THE AFTN...DRYING ALF UNDER UPR CNVGC IN RIGHT EXIT OF CNDN JET MAX WL PRECLUDE THE DVLPMNT OF ANY INSTABILITY SHRA (EVEN MORE UNSTABLE ETA SHOWS KINX DROPPING TO ARND 15 OVER THE SRN TIER). BOTH GFS/ETA FCST H85 TEMPS ACRS THE SRN TIER ZNS REMAINING ARND 11C THRU THE DAY...WHICH SUPPORTS TMAX WELL INTO THE 70S TO NR 80 ESPECIALLY IN PLACES THAT DOWNSLOPE WITH NW WIND. INTENSE SFC HTG INLAND AND WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WL SUPPORT LK BREEZE FORMATION...SO LOCATIONS NR THE LKS WL BE COOLER. GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A RETURN SW FLOW AT H85 BACK ON SUN NGT AND EVEN GENERATES SOME LGT QPF. CONSIDERING QUICKLY RISING HGTS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV...STALLING SFC FNT NOT TOO FAR S OF FA...AND UKMET/CNDN MODEL FCST OF A SIMILAR SCENARIO (CNDN GENERATES SOME LGT QPF NR THE WI BORDER AS WELL)...HAVE OPTED TO TREND TOWARD THE GFS FCST. HOWEVER...THINK AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN...JUST SOME PTCHY CLD (PER THE UKMET). TRENDED TOWARD HIER GFS MOS FCST TMINS WITH FASTER MSTR RETURN THAN INDICATED BY THE NGM/ ETA. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF PTCHY FOG AS SUGGESTED BY GFS MOS WITH LLVL MSTR RETURN UNDER UPR LVL DRYING. MON WL BE A WARMER DAY WITH RETURN SW FLOW UNDER RISING HGTS DOWNSTREAM OF HGT FALLS IN THE PAC NW. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMP PROGGED TO RISE NR 15C...GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW THIS WARMING WL CREATE CAP UNDER QUICKLY RISING H5 HGTS TO ARND 580DM BY 00Z TUE. EXPECT ONLY PTCHY ACCAS WITH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES ABV CAP. MIXING TO H85 ON ETA/GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS TMAX NR 77 OVER INLAND AREAS AWAY FM LK COOLING...WHICH WL BE MOST PRONOUNCED NR LK MI AND OVER THE KEWEENAW IN SE SFC FLOW. COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ KC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 330 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY A FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND NO PCPN IS EXPECTED. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IT WILL BE WARMER AND REMAIN DRY FOR MUCH OF TODAY BUT THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO OUR WESTERN ZONES/PARISHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES OVER THE AREA. WL INCREASE POPS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY BEGINNING THIS EVENING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS...WL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THE BERMUDA HIGH WHICH WILL RIDGE WEST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND LIMIT POPS OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVELS WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND RESULT IN A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES EACH EVENING DUE TO SEA BREEZE TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN THURSDAY WHILE WARM TROPICAL AIR WITH PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN GREATER THAN NORMAL CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 87 67 86 69 / 00 20 50 30 MERIDIAN 87 66 86 68 / 00 20 40 30 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ 22 ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 141 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004 .DISCUSSION...LL MASS FLUX WITHIN LLJ AXIS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDGE POKING IN FM THE W AIDING CONVN THIS AM...PARTICULARLY ACRS NC KS AND OVR NE SANDHILLS. FCST DILEMMA LIES W/EVOLUTION OF SANDHILLS CONV CLUSTER THROUGH THIS AM AND POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN ALG ADV WK FRONTAL BNDRY DROPPING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS IN ASSOCN/W LEAD TROF. GIVEN STEEP EML SPREADING OUT OVERTOP CWA THIS AM AND DEEP LL MSTR PLUME IN PLACE...SEE NO REASON FOR DVLPG MCS OVR THE SANDHILLS OR COMING OUT OF SW SD TO DECAY GIVEN FVRBL LLJ. EXTRAPOLATION PER 850- 300MB THICKNESSES CLIPS NE CORNER OF CWA BTWN 9-12Z W/SANDHILLS ACTIVITY AND THRU 18Z W/SD LEFT OVERS IN LINE W/SHRT TERM RUCII PROGS. OTHERWISE SUSPECT KS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE CLEARED THAT AREA BY 12Z. AFTN CHCS RELEGATED TO DEGREE OF DIURNAL RECOVERY AND DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. HWVR SYNOPTIC SIGNAL WEAK ESP IN REGARD TO SUSTAINED CVRG ALG WK SFC BNDRY. ALTHOUGH GIVEN ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION LIKE ETA PROGS...NO AT ALL OUT OF THE QN. FOR NOW WILL CONCENTRATE ON AM ACTIVITY AND ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY. WILL TRY REFINING AFT PD BUT TIME WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SHORT AS FOCUS SHIFTS QUICKLY INTO KS TONIGHT. HOPEFULLY IT PANS OUT.? AFT THAT...WRN TROF/CNTRL US RIDGE DVLPMNT SIGNAL TORRID WEEK HERE. PERHAPS A SHOT AT SOME NEEDED PRECIP THU NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST BUT SIGNAL MIXED AT BEST THIS FAR OUT. HWVR WARMING UPR RIDGE LOOKS TO FLIRT W/100 DEGREE READINGS ACRS THE SW QUARTER OF THE CWA BY MID WEEK W/90S ELSEWHERE. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && EFFECTIVE JUNE 8 2004 THIS PRODUCT WILL HAVE THE ID CHANGED FROM OMAAFDGRI...TO OMAAFDGID. FOR MORE INFORMATION CHECK OUT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS/USE LOWER CASE LETTERS: HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/PUBLIC/WMOHEADERS/CR_PHASE1.HTM $$ T ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 405 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004 .DISCUSSION... FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING IS TIMING OF BEST PRECIP CHANCES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST. PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY DIFFICULT TO PLACE WITH CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE ON SURFACE WINDS...BUT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM AROUND KBIS TO JUST WEST OF KPIR TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING THE UPPER WAVE OUTRUNNING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING...WITH THE UPPER WAVE INTO MN AND WRN IA BY 00Z...WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT WEAKENS AND HANGS BACK OVER EXTREME SERN SD. WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER LEVEL WAVE...OVER THE LOW LEVEL FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...THINK IT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT FOR TSRA TO REDEVELOP ALONG FRONT. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THIS MORNING FOR ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...TAPERING TO MORE SCATTERED WORDING IN THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. AS OF 08Z... ETA AND RUC SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY IN NRN NE AND SRN SD...SO HAVE FOLLOWED THESE MODELS A LITTLE MORE CLOSELY FOR TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS AND QPF VALUES FOR TODAY. AS FOR POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH LIMITED DYNAMIC SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON... WILL HAVE TO RELY ON INSTABILITY. THIS GREATEST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IN AREA WHICH HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE AND HEAT OUT BEST. THINK SOUTHEAST WILL BE HAMPERED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER AND LIMITING INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL IN HWO ALONG MAINLY EAST OF JAMES RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCE BETWEEN JAMES RIVER AND I-29 CORRIDOR. WILL LINGER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL FRONT INTO THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 25C OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 20C OR A LITTLE WARMER IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST. GFS MAINTAINS THE WARM TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY...AND AGAIN WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE CWA. WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S...SHOULD ALSO SEE VERY MILD NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. GET A PRETTY GOOD NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET GOING SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER WARM FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS TIME...AND MID LEVEL WARMING PUSHES 700MB TEMPS TO +12 TO +14C. SO THINK ANY TSRA CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHEAST AND PUSH SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SOME COOLER MID LEVEL AIR INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOING FORECAST BRINGS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AND DID NOT REALLY MAKE ANY CHANGES TO PLACEMENT OR TIMING AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGES BEYOND WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. && .FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ HACKER sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 300 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 2004 .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER LOW FINALLY PASSING THE AREA TO THE NORTH AS WIDESPREAD SHRA CONT TO SLOWLY TAPER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ATTM. EXPECT AS DEEP RH/UVV GRDLY LIFT FARTHER N...AND 85H UPSLOPE ENDS WILL SEE MAJORITY OF SIG RAINFALL FADE THIS MORNING...AS BOTH THE RUC/MESO-ETA WRAP WEAK SUBSIDENCE UNDER SYSTEM EARLY ON. THUS PLAN TO CONT CHCY POPS MAINLY FAR N EARLY ON WITH CLOUDS TRICKY GIVEN DOWNSLOPE E AND DRY SLOT ACROSS THE S/SW. THINK OVERALL BECMG PC S/WRN SLOPES TO MAINLY CLDY NW AND A FEW BREAKS IN BETWEEN. NEXT WEAK S/W PER ETA TO ROTATE IN FROM THE NW LATE WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING/INSTAB DESPITE DVLPG MID LEVEL CAP. APPEARS ANY HEATING ESPCLY OVER THE RIDGES ENOUGH TO SPARK ADDED LOW TOPPED SHRA WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL KEEP IN SLGT CHCS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH THIS AFTN. TEMPS ALSO IN QUESTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO JUMP WHERE SUN GETS THRU WHILE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLOUDS ELSW. WITH ETA SHOWING SOME RESIDUAL WEDGING HOLDING OUT E WONT RAISE HIGHS MUCH FOR NOW EXCEPT FAR SOUTH WHERE PLAN TO NUDGE UP A CAT TO COVER. UPPER TROF FINALLY PULLS OUT/WEAKENS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING SOME WEAK SFC RIDGING TO DEVELOP TNGT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. MAY NEED A LOW POP FOR ISOLD EVENING SHRA PER VORT...OTRW PLAN TO GO DRY OVERNGT WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG A GOOD BET LATE GIVEN LGT WINDS/WET GROUND. WAA MAKES A RETURN BEHIND EXITING RIDGE SUNDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS EDGING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS. COULD AGAIN BE ISOLD SHRA RIDGES LATER SUNDAY WITH HEATING/MOIST BLYR BUT GIVEN WARM LAYER ALOFT AND LITTLE FOCUS WILL GO PC/DRY FOR NOW .LONG TERM... NEXT WEAK UPPER TROF APPROACHES SUNDAY NGT BEFORE DISSIPATING MON UPON MOVING INTO BUILDING SE 5H RIDGE. APPEARS BEST LIFT/MOISTURE AGAIN A BIT SLOWER WITH BEST CHCS COMING DURING MAX HEATING MON...SO WILL CUT BACK CHCS SUNDAY NGT ESPCLY OUT E. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY OFFSHRE RIDGE WITH LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER HIGH HEIGHTS. CANADIAN AGAIN BASICALLY DRY TUE-FRI WHILE GFS SHOWING DAILY TSRA WITH BETTER CHCS LATE WEEK AS S/W ENERGY DENTS RIDGE A BIT. SINCE THE CANADIAN WAS TOO STRONG WITH RIDGE A WHILE BACK AND STILL WILL HAVE LOTS OF RH AROUND...THINK HARD TO CAP TSRA ESPCLY W SO PLAN TO STICK WITH DIURNAL CHC POPS AT THIS POINT. OTRW LITTLE CHANGE TO PC/WARM/HUMID FCST WITH TEMPS 75-80 W AND 80-85 E THRU THE EXTENDED. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ JH va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 918 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 2004 ...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN... .DISCUSSION... CENTRAL FL MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH PWATS IN THE 1.7-1.8 RANGE AND STRONGER SW STEERING FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD. MODEL PROGS ALSO SHOW H7-H5 STEERING FLOW FROM THE SW AT 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE FAR NRN ZONES AND 10 KNOTS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. RUC/GFS SHOW VORT LOBE ACROSS THE NE GULF THAT WILL BE PUSHED EAST ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA BY LATE AFTN AS ANOTHER STRONGER S/W MOVES FROM MS TO GA THROUGH THE LATE AFTN HOURS. CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE FL WEST COAST WHICH PORTENDS AN ACTIVE DAY FOR THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTN. WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ZFP/GRIDS AND HWO THIS MORNING WITH STRONG TO SVR STORMS ALREADY MENTIONED IN HWO. EXPECT EARLY CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE TREASURE COAST SEA BREEZE BY AROUND NOON AND WILL ALSO SEE ACTIVITY ACROSS LAKE COUNTY BY EARLY AFTN AS CURRENT CONVECTION AND WEST COAST SEA BRA ACTIVITY DEVELOPS. CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (BREVARD) WILL PROBABLY SEE STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN WITH PEAK HEATING AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FROM STORMS TO THE NW AND THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. && .MARINE...MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE STORMS NEAR SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH A LITTLE MORE STEERING FLOW NOTED AND MORE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...EXPECT THAT STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE NORTH. LITTLE CHANGE EXCEPT TO ADD WINDS/SEAS HIGHER NEAR STORMS. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VOLKMER LONG TERM....LASCODY fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1040 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 2004 .DISCUSSION... CLOUDS/CONVECTION AND TEMPS MAIN CONCERNS FOR UPDATE WV LOOP AND ROABS SHOW STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRYING TO PHASE OVR MN ATTM. BROAD AREA OF 150M+ HEIGHT FALLS AT H5 THIS MORNING FM CNTRL CANADA INTO MN...WITH STRONG DARKENING ON WV LOOP IS NOSING INTO NW MN ATTM. RADAR FM KDLH AND SFC OBS SHOW SHIELD OF RAIN IS SPREADING INTO NW WI ATTM (JUST ABOUT TO KASX AS OF 1415Z). ALTHOUGH AIRMASS FARTHER E IS DRIER (PWAT AT GRB OF 0.72 AND A PALTRY 0.40 AT KAPX)...THE RAIN IS SHIFTING STEADILY EWD AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/SLIGHT H3 DIVERGENCE PER RUC ENVELOP UPR LAKES. UPDATED GOGEBIC COUNTY EARLIER TO BRING PCPN IN THERE QUICKER...OTHERWISE AFTN DEVELOPING WORDING FOR SHRA/TS SHOWN IN GRIDS CURRENTLY IS GOOD. NOT MUCH TS UPSTEAM ATTM AS THICK AC DECK WITH MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN IS SPREADING QUICKLY E. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS PICKING UP ON LIMITED INSOLATION AND THUS ARE VERY MEAGER WITH AFTN CAPE VALUES. MANAGED TO CONJUR UP 500 J/KG IN FAR SW WITH LESS THAN 100 J/KG FARTHER N AND E OF THERE. 0-6KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 30KT NOT IDEAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME TSMS AROUND DUE TO STRONG DYNAMICS AND MID LEVEL COOLING...POSSIBILITY OF SVR TSMS APPEARS TO BE SLIM. WITH QUICKER INCREASING CLOUD TREND ALSO BUMPED TEMPS DOWN BY 3-5F IN W ZONES. LWR 70S FCST IN CNTRL/ERN ZONES SHOULD STILL HOLD AS TEMPS ARE WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL NOT IMPACT HEATING UNTIL MID AFTN AT EARLIEST. DID NOT CHANGE ANY GRIDS BEYOND THIS AFTN. INTERESTING THAT 12Z ETA WHICH HAS GOOD HANDLE ON AREAL COVERAGE OF PCPN OVR MN ATTM...SHOWS RAIN ENDING EARLIER THAN CURRENT FCST (IN THE EVENING W/BY MIDNIGHT CNTRL/BY DAYBREAK E). WILL NEED TO SEE HOW MUCH REDEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR UPSTREAM AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE THIS AFTN. JLA .PREV DISCUSSION... TONIGHT...PCPN WL ARRIVE OVER THE ERN ZNS SAT EVNG AS ND SHRTWV SHIFTS EWD. ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF THIS SHRTWV TO THE E BY MIDNGT SAT NGT WL LIKELY TAKE THE DEEPER MSTR WITH IT...STRONGER NRN BRANCH SHRTWV IN NRN MANITOBA FCST TO DIG TOWARD NW LK SUP BY 12Z SUN AND PROLONG DPVA/ HGT FALLS/PCPN CHCS. ALTHOUGH ETA SHOWS VIGOROUS DRYING/H85-5 QVECTOR DVGC DVLPG OVRNGT...MODEL HANGS ON TO H7-3 QVECTOR DVGC/DPVA AND SOME UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF ACCOMPANYING JET MAX ALMOST AS LONG AS GFS. SO WL FOLLOW SLOWER TIMING OF THE GFS ON DEPARTURE OF SYS SAT NGT...WITH CHC POPS LINGERING OVER THE E INTO EARLY SUN MRNG. LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT TSRA CHCS FARTHER E AFTER SUNSET...BUT VIGOROUS DYNAMICS WL STILL SUSTAIN ISOLD TSRA. AFTER DEPARTURE OF ANY LINGERING SHRA FM THE ERN ZNS SUN MRNG... THE WX WL BE DOMINATED BY THE ARRIVAL OF ACYC FLOW AND DRIER AIR...FIRST ALF THEN AT THE SFC. ALTHOUGH ETA FCST SDNGS SHOW STEEP LLVL LAPSE RATES ACRS THE SRN TIER ZNS INTO THE AFTN...DRYING ALF UNDER UPR CNVGC IN RIGHT EXIT OF CNDN JET MAX WL PRECLUDE THE DVLPMNT OF ANY INSTABILITY SHRA (EVEN MORE UNSTABLE ETA SHOWS KINX DROPPING TO ARND 15 OVER THE SRN TIER). BOTH GFS/ETA FCST H85 TEMPS ACRS THE SRN TIER ZNS REMAINING ARND 11C THRU THE DAY...WHICH SUPPORTS TMAX WELL INTO THE 70S TO NR 80 ESPECIALLY IN PLACES THAT DOWNSLOPE WITH NW WIND. INTENSE SFC HTG INLAND AND WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WL SUPPORT LK BREEZE FORMATION...SO LOCATIONS NR THE LKS WL BE COOLER. GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE AT BRINGING A RETURN SW FLOW AT H85 BACK ON SUN NGT AND EVEN GENERATES SOME LGT QPF. CONSIDERING QUICKLY RISING HGTS IN WAKE OF DEPARTING SHRTWV...STALLING SFC FNT NOT TOO FAR S OF FA...AND UKMET/CNDN MODEL FCST OF A SIMILAR SCENARIO (CNDN GENERATES SOME LGT QPF NR THE WI BORDER AS WELL)...HAVE OPTED TO TREND TOWARD THE GFS FCST. HOWEVER...THINK AIRMASS WL BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PCPN...JUST SOME PTCHY CLD (PER THE UKMET). TRENDED TOWARD HIER GFS MOS FCST TMINS WITH FASTER MSTR RETURN THAN INDICATED BY THE NGM/ ETA. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF PTCHY FOG AS SUGGESTED BY GFS MOS WITH LLVL MSTR RETURN UNDER UPR LVL DRYING. MON WL BE A WARMER DAY WITH RETURN SW FLOW UNDER RISING HGTS DOWNSTREAM OF HGT FALLS IN THE PAC NW. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMP PROGGED TO RISE NR 15C...GFS FCST SDNGS SHOW THIS WARMING WL CREATE CAP UNDER QUICKLY RISING H5 HGTS TO ARND 580DM BY 00Z TUE. EXPECT ONLY PTCHY ACCAS WITH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES ABV CAP. MIXING TO H85 ON ETA/GFS FCST SDNGS YIELDS TMAX NR 77 OVER INLAND AREAS AWAY FM LK COOLING...WHICH WL BE MOST PRONOUNCED NR LK MI AND OVER THE KEWEENAW IN SE SFC FLOW. COORDINATED WITH APX/GRB. KC && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 700 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004 .UPDATED DISCUSSION...UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDDS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES AND PARISHES THIS MORNING. CURRENT SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI IS WORKING WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS IN CATAHOULA AND CONCORDIA PARISHES. LOCAL RADARS HAVE THESE SHOWERS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING. ALSO...GOING FOR A THIRD RAOB THIS MORNING BUT DATA WILL LIKELY MISS THE CUTOFF. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... SATELLITE IMAGERY/RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING. ONLY A FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND NO PCPN IS EXPECTED. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IT WILL BE WARMER AND REMAIN DRY FOR MUCH OF TODAY BUT THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO OUR WESTERN ZONES/PARISHES BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WHILE THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS SEVERAL ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORT WAVES OVER THE AREA. WL INCREASE POPS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY BEGINNING THIS EVENING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS...WL CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS MONDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THE BERMUDA HIGH WHICH WILL RIDGE WEST OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND LIMIT POPS OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. && .LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVELS WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND RESULT IN A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES EACH EVENING DUE TO SEA BREEZE TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN THURSDAY WHILE WARM TROPICAL AIR WITH PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN GREATER THAN NORMAL CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 87 67 86 69 / 00 20 50 30 MERIDIAN 87 66 86 68 / 00 20 40 30 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ 22 ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 930 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 2004 .PUBLIC...WEAK BOUNDARY/FRONT HAS SLIPPED THROUGH CHS THE PAST FEW HOURS AS WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE NW. STRATUS DECK HAS FOLLOWED THE FRONT SOUTH AND NOW LIES ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR SC. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE GA COAST...BUT STRATUS SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. MODELS INDICATE THE WIND SHIFT WILL WASH OUT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS RE-ESTABLISH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BASED ON THE UNSTABLE CHS SOUNDING FROM THIS MORNING. WHILE PW VALUES ARE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD GIVE ADDITIONAL FOCUS. THE LOW STRATUS DECK MAY ALLOW FOR A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY AS WELL. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE LATEST RUC AND ETA IN SHOWING AN ADDITIONAL S/W TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE CHC POPS ONGOING WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE. TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK FINE. && .MARINE...LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF AMZ350 BUT IT SHOULDNT LAST LONG...MAYBE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. FOR THE MOST PART THE COASTAL LOOKS GOOD WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WELL TO OUR NORTH AND THE STALLING FRONT IN THE AREA...WILL LOWER SPEEDS JUST A BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ PY sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1005 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004 CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING TO THE SE INTO SE SD...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOLLOWING IN BEHIND. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED MENTION OF MORNING -TRW. HOWEVER WITH THE LATEST MSAS ANALYSIS STILL PLACING AXIS OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM JUST SOUTH OF KFAR SOUTHWEST TOWARD CENTRAL NE...STILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF -TRW THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. RUC ALSO ADVERTISES SOME DECENT VALUES OF CAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE RANGING FROM KMBG TO KATY. BEST CHANCE FOR -TRW LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA IN VICINITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH MOST SITES TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S...WITH WINDS SWITCHING AROUND TO THE NW/N AS THE COOL FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE MN...NONE && $$ ALBRECHT sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1005 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004 .DISCUSSION... COMPLICATED FORECAST ONGOING FOR TODAY AS FIRST SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE EAST OUT OF THE AREA. BASED ON ALL THE 12Z MODELS LEANED MORE WITH THE RUC'S HANDLING OF THE H500 PATTERN...WHICH WOULD PLACE THE CWA BETWEEN VORT MAX TO THE WEST...AND TO THE EAST WITH SMALL AREA OF SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN THEM. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TSRA POTENTIAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON. KABR SOUNDING SHOWED A LOT OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IF CONVECTIVE TEMP CAN BE REACHED AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7C. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND NEXT APPROACHING VORT MAX SHOULD ALLOW SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK EAST WITH THE FRONT. SHEAR PROFILES ARE RATHER WEAK FOR THE MOST PART...BUT SOME DECENT ANTICYCLONIC DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS FOUND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MAY HELP A FEW STORMS ORGANIZE. WILL LEAVE SEVERE MENTION OUT OF THE ZONES THOUGH AS WIND SHEAR MAY BE TO WEAK TO ALLOW FOR ALOT OF ORGANIZATION. ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPS A BIT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST H850 PROGS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING IS TIMING OF BEST PRECIP CHANCES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY HAVE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN DAKOTAS SLIDING SOUTHEAST. PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY DIFFICULT TO PLACE WITH CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE ON SURFACE WINDS...BUT APPEARS TO EXTEND FROM AROUND KBIS TO JUST WEST OF KPIR TO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. MODELS SIMILAR IN SHOWING THE UPPER WAVE OUTRUNNING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE EAST BY THIS EVENING...WITH THE UPPER WAVE INTO MN AND WRN IA BY 00Z...WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT WEAKENS AND HANGS BACK OVER EXTREME SERN SD. WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UPPER LEVEL WAVE...OVER THE LOW LEVEL FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...THINK IT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT FOR TSRA TO REDEVELOP ALONG FRONT. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS THIS MORNING FOR ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER...TAPERING TO MORE SCATTERED WORDING IN THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA. AS OF 08Z... ETA AND RUC SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS ACTIVITY IN NRN NE AND SRN SD...SO HAVE FOLLOWED THESE MODELS A LITTLE MORE CLOSELY FOR TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS AND QPF VALUES FOR TODAY. AS FOR POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH LIMITED DYNAMIC SUPPORT THIS AFTERNOON... WILL HAVE TO RELY ON INSTABILITY. THIS GREATEST ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IN AREA WHICH HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE APPRECIABLE SUNSHINE AND HEAT OUT BEST. THINK SOUTHEAST WILL BE HAMPERED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER AND LIMITING INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MENTION MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL IN HWO ALONG MAINLY EAST OF JAMES RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCE BETWEEN JAMES RIVER AND I-29 CORRIDOR. WILL LINGER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL FRONT INTO THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 25C OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AROUND 20C OR A LITTLE WARMER IN THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 90S SOUTHWEST. GFS MAINTAINS THE WARM TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY...AND AGAIN WENT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE CWA. WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S...SHOULD ALSO SEE VERY MILD NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 60S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. GET A PRETTY GOOD NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET GOING SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... HOWEVER WARM FRONT IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS TIME...AND MID LEVEL WARMING PUSHES 700MB TEMPS TO +12 TO +14C. SO THINK ANY TSRA CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO SAG SOUTHEAST AND PUSH SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SOME COOLER MID LEVEL AIR INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GOING FORECAST BRINGS CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AND DID NOT REALLY MAKE ANY CHANGES TO PLACEMENT OR TIMING AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGES BEYOND WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. && .FSD...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$ JRM/HACKER sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 945 AM EDT SAT JUN 5 2004 UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY N...WITH MAIN PRECIP SHIELD NOW NORTH OF THE FCST AREA. WEAK DOWNSLOPE HAS KICKED IN ALONG BLUE RIDGE...WITH CLRG NOTED NC AND SRN VA FOOTHILL COUNTIES. SFC LOW STILL PRODUCING NORTHERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN PIEDONT ALLOWING SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF STRATO-CU OVER AREA EAST OF DANVILLE. A.M. SOUNDING SHOWS SATURATION TO 790 MB...WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT THAT LEVEL. WITH SO MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FEEL THAT ANY HEATING IN CLEARED OUT AREAS WILL RESULT IN RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SC DECK THIS AFTN. CHC SHRA AREA DEPICTED OVER WEST & NW THIS AFTN IS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSAGE...AND LOOKS REASONABLE. WILL DO A LATE AM UPDATE MAILY FOR REMOVING AM WORDING AND TO ADJUST CLDS/TEMPS WHERE NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM... VAPOR LOOP SHOWING UPPER LOW FINALLY PASSING THE AREA TO THE NORTH AS WIDESPREAD SHRA CONT TO SLOWLY TAPER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ATTM. EXPECT AS DEEP RH/UVV GRDLY LIFT FARTHER N...AND 85H UPSLOPE ENDS WILL SEE MAJORITY OF SIG RAINFALL FADE THIS MORNING...AS BOTH THE RUC/MESO-ETA WRAP WEAK SUBSIDENCE UNDER SYSTEM EARLY ON. THUS PLAN TO CONT CHCY POPS MAINLY FAR N EARLY ON WITH CLOUDS TRICKY GIVEN DOWNSLOPE E AND DRY SLOT ACROSS THE S/SW. THINK OVERALL BECMG PC S/WRN SLOPES TO MAINLY CLDY NW AND A FEW BREAKS IN BETWEEN. NEXT WEAK S/W PER ETA TO ROTATE IN FROM THE NW LATE WITH SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING/INSTAB DESPITE DVLPG MID LEVEL CAP. APPEARS ANY HEATING ESPCLY OVER THE RIDGES ENOUGH TO SPARK ADDED LOW TOPPED SHRA WITH THIS FEATURE SO WILL KEEP IN SLGT CHCS ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH THIS AFTN. TEMPS ALSO IN QUESTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS TO JUMP WHERE SUN GETS THRU WHILE QUITE CHILLY UNDER CLOUDS ELSW. WITH ETA SHOWING SOME RESIDUAL WEDGING HOLDING OUT E WONT RAISE HIGHS MUCH FOR NOW EXCEPT FAR SOUTH WHERE PLAN TO NUDGE UP A CAT TO COVER. UPPER TROF FINALLY PULLS OUT/WEAKENS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALLOWING SOME WEAK SFC RIDGING TO DEVELOP TNGT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. MAY NEED A LOW POP FOR ISOLD EVENING SHRA PER VORT...OTRW PLAN TO GO DRY OVERNGT WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG A GOOD BET LATE GIVEN LGT WINDS/WET GROUND. WAA MAKES A RETURN BEHIND EXITING RIDGE SUNDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGH TEMPS EDGING BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS. COULD AGAIN BE ISOLD SHRA RIDGES LATER SUNDAY WITH HEATING/MOIST BLYR BUT GIVEN WARM LAYER ALOFT AND LITTLE FOCUS WILL GO PC/DRY FOR NOW .LONG TERM... NEXT WEAK UPPER TROF APPROACHES SUNDAY NGT BEFORE DISSIPATING MON UPON MOVING INTO BUILDING SE 5H RIDGE. APPEARS BEST LIFT/MOISTURE AGAIN A BIT SLOWER WITH BEST CHCS COMING DURING MAX HEATING MON...SO WILL CUT BACK CHCS SUNDAY NGT ESPCLY OUT E. REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY OFFSHRE RIDGE WITH LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER HIGH HEIGHTS. CANADIAN AGAIN BASICALLY DRY TUE-FRI WHILE GFS SHOWING DAILY TSRA WITH BETTER CHCS LATE WEEK AS S/W ENERGY DENTS RIDGE A BIT. SINCE THE CANADIAN WAS TOO STRONG WITH RIDGE A WHILE BACK AND STILL WILL HAVE LOTS OF RH AROUND...THINK HARD TO CAP TSRA ESPCLY W SO PLAN TO STICK WITH DIURNAL CHC POPS AT THIS POINT. OTRW LITTLE CHANGE TO PC/WARM/HUMID FCST WITH TEMPS 75-80 W AND 80-85 E THRU THE EXTENDED. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ JH/MG va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 217 PM MDT SAT JUN 5 2004 .SHORT TERM... (TODAY AND TONIGHT) WEATHER ISSUES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW GRADE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS (A FEW STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS) AS WELL AS WARMING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. CWFA CURRENTLY NOTING SOME VERY HEALTHY CELLS NEAR THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BORDER...(THANKS TO SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE REGION) RUNNING FROM SOUTHWEST OF TRINIDAD TO SOUTHERN BACA COUNTY WITH SOME WEAKER CELLS NOTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTERNOON EARLY JUNE TEMPERATURES RUNNING AT TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS OF THE RUC/MESO-ETA INDICATE THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY TO REMAIN NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS INTO THE EVENING AND THIS IS WHERE I HAVE PUT THE HIGHER SCATTERED POPS... (AGAIN WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE ONE OR TWO APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS AT LEAST BRIEFLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR)...OTHERWISE ISOLATED POPS SHOULD SUFFICE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. SWITCHING GEARS TO TEMPERATURES...HAVE BUMPED UP INHERITED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY BY A CATEGORY OR TWO SEVERAL AREAS AS LATEST MODELS HAVE VERY WARM TO HOT 700 MB TEMPERATURES MOVING OVER DISTRICT. THANKS SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR COORDINATION. .LONG TERM... (MONDAYDAY THROUGH SATURDAY) ...MAIN CONCERN THIS FCST PERIOD IS FIRE WX... MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR SE AND SC COLORADO DURING THIS PERIOD. A DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BC CANADA IS FORECAST TO DIG AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE ONSHORE AND CROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES... DRY AND VERY WARM SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ENTER THE REGION. MAIN CONCERN FOR THESE WINDS WILL BE IN THE WED AND THU TIME FRAME. IF FUELS ARE SUFFICIENTLY DRY...THEN FIRE WX HILITES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. A MINOR FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY AND THIS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO COOL THINGS OFF A FEW DEGREES. ETA80 IS HINTING AT SOME LOW POPS FAR E PLAINS BUT PLAN TO PLAY IT CONSERVATIVE AND LEAVE IT DRY FOR NOW. AS FOR PRECIP FARTHER OUT...I CANT REALLY GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT MUCH. SOME ISOLD POPS ARE IN THE GRIDDS FOR TOMORROW NITE AND WED AND CANT SEE ANY GOOD REASON TO REMOVE POPS. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THU MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME POPS BUT DECIDED TO LEAVE IT HOT AND DRY FOR NOW...AND WILL ALLOW FOR LATER SHIFTS TO RE-ADJUST IF NEEDED. \/HODANISH && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE IDAHO 225 PM MDT SAT JUN 5 2004 .SHORT TERM...PACIFIC SYSTEM OVER SE OREGON AND MUCH OF IDAHO CONTINUES TO BE MOISTURE STARVED ESPECIALLY ON ITS SRN FRINGES INCLUDING FOR BOISE. AN UPPER JET MAX NR 100 KTS PER RUC MAX WIND IS PUSHING INTO E CENTRAL OREGON WITH AN UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH OREGON. AS MAXT TIME APPROACHES AND THESE FEATURES CONTINUE MOVING E/NE INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR N ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD FIRE OFF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLY TO 50 MPH FAR N...WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 25 MPH FILTER THROUGH THE REMAINING ZONES WITH THE FRONT THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A FEW MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE FRONTAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH WHILE SEVERE TS SHOULD REMAIN NE OF THE REGION. COOLING IS THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS FIRST SYSTEM...FROM NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY TO AVERAGE FOR HIGHS SUNDAY. BROAD WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE OREGON COAST BACK TO 45N 140W WITH THE UPPER SPEED MAX WILL BE ACROSS SW IDAHO SUNDAY SO WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION... AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BRING LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. A SECONDARY PACIFIC TROF IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF AK THIS AFTERNOON WILL AMPLIFY THE WESTERN U.S. TROF RESULTING IN A SECONDARY COLD SURGE AND A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR HIGHS NEAR AVERAGE. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE THE DEEPEST ON WEDNESDAY AND STARTS TO LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY WITH WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION AFFECTING MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. PW VALUES DON/T LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE...ONLY ABOUT .60...SUCH THAT QPF REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. BY THE LATTER HALF OF THURSDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW SOME DRYING TO START TO INTRUDE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A LOW LEVEL COLD POOL IS TO FOLLOW THE SURFACE LOW KEEPING MAX TEMPS MUCH BELOW NORMAL...ON THE ORDER OF 6 TO 10 DEGREES...WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND FROM WED IN MANLY LOCATIONS. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE...ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE ORIGINAL TROUGH...WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES. BY SATURDAY...THE LONG WAVE RIDGE THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN RESIDING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL COME ON-SHORE AND PROGRESS EASTWARD REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL. $$ .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .ID...NONE. .OR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VM LONG TERM....RH id AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 308 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004 .SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH NOW WELL EAST OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES. UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS REACHED FROM SW KS THROUGH EASTERN NEB TO NW MN. MID LEVEL VORT MAX WAS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA WITH PATCHY LIGHT SHOWERS AND DENSE CI SHIELD SEEN ON SATELLITE. STRONGER MCV EVIDENT FURTHER SOUTH WAS PRODUCING NEARLY SMALL NEARLY STATIONARY TSRA COMPLEX OVER NE KS. FURTHER WEST AND NORTHWEST... CONVECTION WAS JUST STARTING TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE TROUGH BOUNDARY IN PLAINS. OVER CWA...PLENTY OF INSOLATION AND COOL H7 TEMPS HAVE LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG EDGE OF APPROACHING HIGH CLOUDS WHERE INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL VORT MAX BEGINNING TO BE FELT. && .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SHOWERS AND A FEW TSRA WILL BE ON-GOING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS INITIAL VORT MAX TRACKS ACROSS AREA AND RUC HAS DECENT HANDLE ON THIS. THEN...MAIN MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NW MN...PRODUCES BEST LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES TOWARD MIDNIGHT. WILL COUNT ON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THEN SEVERAL HOUR BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL LIFT AND SLOW MOVING SURFACE TROUGH. THUS KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING FOR MOST OF CWA LATE TONIGHT. QPF WILL BE ON LIGHT SIDE AS MOISTURE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. GFS ESPECIALLY WAS OVERDONE ON H85 DEWPOINTS INTO NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. ON SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE SURFACE TROUGH HANGING UP OVER AREA AND WASHING OUT AS STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS OVER NORTHERN PLAINS GENERATES RETURN FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER EARLY IN MORNING...THEN FEW COULD REDEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST ALONG DISSIPATING BOUNDARY IN AFTERNOON AND KEPT SCATTERED POPS THERE. CLOUDS AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVING INTO AREA WILL LIMIT LOWS TO UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS AND AFTERNOON SUNSHINE...TEMPS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. ...SHEETS... .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... SUNDAY NIGHT BEGINS A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER...WITH RIDGING ALOFT...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. CONDITIONS GET INCREASINGLY WARM ALOFT...WITH 700MB TEMPS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON APPROACHING 12 DEG C...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A PRETTY DECENT CAP ON CONVECTION. IT COOLS OFF A LITTLE ALOFT BY TUESDAY...BUT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE CWA BY THEN...NOTHING FOR CONVECTION TO FOCUS ON. SO...HAVE GONE DRY FOR THESE PERIODS FOR NOW...THOUGH A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THESE PARAMETERS COULD REALLY CHANGE THINGS. FOR NOW...HAVE PICKED ON THE GFS AS IT SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE CURRENT FEATURES BEST...AND HAS REASONABLE SOLUTION THROUGH PERIOD. DO NOT SEE WHY ETA IS PUSHING THE FRONT AND PRECIP SO FAR SOUTH TUESDAY...AND HAVE IGNORED AS A RESULT. TEMPS IN THIS PERIOD TO GRADUALLY WARM...WITH INCREASINGLY HUMID LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... THIS TIME FRAME DOMINATED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...WITH AN EQUALLY STRONG CUT OFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES. GFS IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE...KEEPING THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE CWA...ACROSS MN AND WI. BOTH EUROPEAN MODELS BRING THIS SURFACE FRONT TO LAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT FEEL THAT THEY ARE UNDERDOING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE TO RE-INFORCE...AND OVERDOING THE STRENGTH AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH. SO...THIS TIME FRAME TO BE HOT AND DRY...WITH TEMPS PUSHING 90 DURING THE DAY...AND ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AT NIGHT. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY... IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN...ITS TOO MUCH TO EXPECT THAT WE WOULD STAY DRY FOR LONG. THE CUT OFF LOW MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH FINALLY SWINGS OUT OF THE FAR WEST...AND DEPRESSES THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO SPIN SOME PRECIP OUR WAY. WITH THE GULF HAVING BEEN OPEN FOR A FEW DAYS...THERE WILL BE LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE AREA AND THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY SHOULD DEFINETELY BE ABLE TO KICK OFF SOME PRECIP. HAVE SOME PRECIP INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST COULD NOT RULE OUT AN MCS OR LIKE FEATURE RIDING DOWN THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...WHICH REALLY ISN'T THAT FAR AWAY TO THE NORTH. OVERALL THOUGH...BEST PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY THE GFS SPINS UP A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW OVER OKLAHOMA...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING UP OUR DIRECTION. ITS TOO FAR WEST FOR PRECIP FOR US SATURDAY...BUT SOME MAY DRIFT DOWN ON US SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FEATURE DRIFTS EAST. TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD TO MODERATE SOMEWHAT WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MORE RAIN IN THE VICINITY...SO HIGHS TO BE IN THE 80S. MINS AT NIGHT TO BE HELD UP THOUGH...AND WITH THE INCREASED RH LEVELS TO BE DOWNRIGHT MUGGY IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. ...LE... && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ DLS/LRE il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 414 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2004 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE COVERAGE AND ENDING OF SHRA TONIGHT/EARLY SUN AND THEN CONVECTION POTENTIAL LATER MON/TUE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP TROF OFF THE W COAST OF CANADA/PACIFIC NW. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES IS ALLOWING SHORTWAVE TO DIG SE THRU MANITOBA TOWARD UPPER GREAT LAKES. PCPN AREA MOVING INTO WRN UPPER MI IS WELL AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND IS TIED TO A MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION AS CYCLONIC SPIN TO RADAR ECHOES IS EVIDENT. CLOUDS/PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS INHIBITING INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN. AT THE SFC... WEAK LOW PRES WAS OVER CNTRL MN. CLOUDS IN THAT AREA HAVE BKN IN THE WAKE OF PRECEEDING PCPN AREA...AND NEW CONVECTION IS FIRING THERE NOW. OTHER CONVECTION IS FIRING OVER NW MN/WRN ONTARIO JUST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE. 12Z MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM THRU THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT ETA IS 3-6HRS FASTER THAN GFS. PREFER THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER GFS GIVEN AGREEMENT WITH CANADIAN/UKMET. GOING FCST MATCHES THIS TIMING WELL...SO FEW CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED TO ENDING TIME OF PCPN. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ON BACKSIDE OF PCPN AREA TIED TO MIDLEVEL CIRCULATION PROGRESSING INTO WRN UPPER MI ATTM AS LATE AFTN INSTABILILITY IS ACTED UPON BY APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. SO PCPN SHOULD FILL IN SOME IN THE WAKE OF CURRENT PCPN AREA MOVING ACROSS UPPER MI. FOR ENDING TIME...WILL USE FROPA AS DEPICTED BY GFS WHICH DOES NOT OCCUR OVER SERN FCST AREA UNTIL ABOUT MIDMORNING SUN. THOUGH PCPN WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SOME MEASURABLE PCPN TONIGHT GIVEN STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE AND AVBL MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER UPWARDS OF AN INCH AND A QUARTER PER 12Z ANALYSIS). AS FOR SVR THREAT...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO LEAD PCPN AREA HAS INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY (LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE LESS THAN 100J/KG). LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 20-30KT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SVR TONIGHT. AFTER LINGERING CHC OF SHRA SUN MORNING OVER E/SE FCST AREA...EXPECT IMPROVING SKY CONDITION FROM W TO E AS PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL DRYING ARRIVES. LOW-LEVELS DRY OUT AS WELL...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCT CU DEVELOPMENT. SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES BY LATE AFTN...SO LAKE BREEZES SHOULD BE IN FULL SWING BY LATE AFTN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR. WILL NEED TO WATCH ERN COUNTIES FOR POTENTIAL OF ISOLD AFTN SHRA IN CONVERGENT ZONE BTWN MICHIGAN AND SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZES. ETA GENERATES SBCAPE UPWARDS OF 500-700J/KG FOR SFC T/TD OF UPPER 60S/MID 50S (SFC DWPT PROBABLY A BIT TOO HIGH THOUGH). WILL LEAVE OUT SHRA MENTION AS MINIMAL CAPE AND INFLUX OF VERY DRY AIR AT AND ABOVE 10KFT SHOULD PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT. TRANQUIL EVENING ON TAP SUN NIGHT WITH SFC HIGH PRES DRIFTING E OF THE AREA. QUESTION ON MON BECOMES CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL UNDER STRENGTHENING WAA. UKMET/ETA/GFS HINT AT IT WITH SOME QPF GENERATED OVER/NEAR UPPER MI...ESPECIALLY UKMET. AT THIS POINT...WOULD APPEAR THAT AIRMASS WILL INITIALLY BE TOO DRY HERE PER ETA FCST SOUNDINGS. JUST UPSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL MN...ETA SHOWS SIGNIFICANT MLCAPE (0-1KM) DEVELOPING MON AFTN WITH VALUES OVER 4K J/KG ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY (THETA-E DECREASING FROM 850-500MB). SINCE NOSE OF LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE FOCUSED NW OF UPPER MI MON...EXPECT BEST INSTABILITY AND RESULTING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN NW OF HERE AS WELL. IN ADDITION...ETA FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PROHIBITIVE SFC BASED CIN OVER UPPER MI AS INVERSION STRENGTHENS UNDER WAA. END RESULT SHOULD BE SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK HERE. MON NIGHT/TUE FCST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES AS STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE TO WRN ONTARIO. ETA/GFS SHOW FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CAPE FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM 850MB MON NIGHT WITH VALUES OF 1-2K J/KG FEEDING NE ALONG JET...AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO VERY STEEP AT 7-8C/KM. ENOUGH FACTORS ARE THERE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA MON NIGHT. ON TUE...STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU ONTARIO WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRIFTING TO UPPER MI LATE. WILL THUS CARRY SHRA/TSRA CHC THRU TUE...EXCEPT OVER THE E WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE CAPPED UNDER THERMAL RIDGE. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER/PCPN AND EXACT TIMING OF FRONT...TUE COULD BE VERY WARM/HUMID WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE OF 18-20C OVER THE AREA. WILL HOLD ONTO LOW-MID 80S IN GOING FCST FOR NOW. WED THRU SAT...SOMEWHAT LESS CONFIDENCE TODAY FOR THIS PERIOD AS NOW THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL TO KEEP STRONG ENOUGH RIDGING OVER THE ERN CONUS TO KEEP COLD FRONT FROM SAGGING WELL S OF THE AREA WED/THU. THE UKMET AND ECWMF ARE VERY SIMILAR NOW AND SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE THE 00Z/04 UKMET RUN. BOTH SHOW ENOUGH HEIGHT FALLS PROGRESSING THRU ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TO FORCE COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED WITH IT STALLING OUT FROM NRN IL TO NRN OH THU. THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH LOOKED LIKE THE GFS YESTERDAY HAS ALSO TRENDED TOWARD THE UK/EC SOLUTION...BUT IT IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER DROPPING FRONT THRU THE AREA WED. THE GFS HAS SHOWN GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY...AND ITS ENSEMBLES STILL SUPPORT OPERATIONAL RUN WHICH HANGS FRONT UP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED THRU FRI BEFORE STRONG SHORTWAVE DRIVES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SAT. HOWEVER...WITH GFS NOW ALONE WITH ITS MORE NRLY FRONTAL PLACEMENT...PREFER TO TREND TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS TODAY. EXPECT FRONT TO DROP S OF UPPER MI WED AND HANG UP OVER THE SRN LAKES REGION THU BEFORE IT STARTS TO RETURN N ON FRI AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF WRN TROF TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH FRONT FARTHER S OF THE AREA THU/FRI THAN WHAT GFS SHOWS...WILL CUT SEVERAL DEGREES OFF GFS MOS GUIDANCE BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE E/NE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL INCREASE COOLING. AS FOR PCPN...WILL CARRY SHRA/TSRA CHC THRU THE PERIOD...ENDING FRI NIGHT. THU MAY END UP BEING A DRY DAY WITH FRONT WELL S OF THE AREA...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO CHC FOR THIS FCST ISSUANCE IN LIGHT OF GFS INSISTANCE ON A FARTHER N FRONTAL POSITION. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 230 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING AND THEIR SEVERITY. THE ETA AND GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND A BLEND OF THE TWO WERE USED. LARGE AREA OF RAIN FINALLY MOVING EAST OF OUR CWA. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE STARTING TO FIRE ELSEWHERE IN MN...AND IN NORTHWEST ONTARIO. CLOUDS HAVE THINNED SOME IN FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS LEAD TO SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -6C. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO OUR WESTERN CWA. A SHORTWAVE AND ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY ARE ALSO FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA...AND IS DEPICTED WELL BY THE RUC. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND WITH THE HEATING WHERE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH FAVORABLE WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS. BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN MINNESOTA...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...AND HAVE ENDED THE PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST BY 06Z. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY TAKES OVER SUNDAY. STRONG 850MB WINDS AROUND 45 KNOTS DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH A TONGUE OF LOW STABILITIES IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WILL ADD A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY NIGHT... AND ACROSS MOST OTHER AREAS ON MONDAY. STABILITIES REALLY DROP DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS 45KT TO 55KT 850MB SOUTHERLY WINDS MOVE OVER ENTIRE CWA. ONE DRAWBACK FOR STORMS MONDAY WILL BE POSSIBLE CAP. 700MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 10C ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA. WE WILL GO WITH A CHANCE FOR STORMS ALL AREAS AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW PUMPS HIGHER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. A BIG QUESTION MARK ON MONDAY WILL BE POSSIBLE LAKE BREEZE AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE (SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP NORTH SHORE MUCH COOLER). SURFACE FLOW FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 160 DEGREES...AND WITH FALLING PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WITH TROUGH MOVING IN...I EXPECT WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AND THEN TURN OUT OF THE EAST OR NORTHEAST IN THE TWIN PORTS HARBOR. I/VE COOLED HIGHS QUITE A BIT FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKE UP THE NORTH SHORE. THERE OBVIOUSLY IS A HUGE BUST POTENTIAL...AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKE IF WINDS REMAIN SOUTH...VERSUS THE 50S NEAR THE LAKE WITH EAST WINDS. SURFACE BOUNDARY STILL FORECAST TO AFFECT CWA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AND WE CONTINUE WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS. && .DLH...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MN...NONE. WI...NONE. $$ MELDE mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 255 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM CONCERN PRECIPITATION ENDING TONIGHT AND THE EXTENT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. THE LONG TERM CHALLENGE IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SOUTHWEST TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ONGOING IN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA PROVIDING WEAK LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. LACK OF SURFACE HEATING DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT QUICKLY LATE THIS EVENING AS ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE ADVANCES SOUTHEAST. SURFACE TROUGH WASHES OUT AFTER 00Z WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WET SURFACE CONDITIONS FROM RECENT RAINS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. WILL BE MENTIONING AREAS OF FOG IN FORECAST BUT WILL LEAVE ANY ADVISORY FOR EVENING SHIFT AS EXTENT OF COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FOR TOMORROW AS SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF LOW AND INCREASING 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK WAVE RIDES ACROSS UPPER RIDGE. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PART OF COUNTY WARNING AREA. WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK AS 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. THIS SHOULD LEAVE THE AREA DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY MIDWEEK THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS REGARDING THE AMOUNT OF CAPPING THAT MIGHT TAKE PLACE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF HEATING IN PLACE. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER WAVE MOVES SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. COULD SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOWEVER PLACEMENT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && NOTE...EFFECTIVE 1200 UTC JUNE 8TH THE AWIPS PRODUCT IDENTIFIER /PID/ FOR THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED BY OMAHA WFO WILL CHANGE TO OMAAFDOAX. THE WMO CODE WILL REMAIN FXUS63 KOAX. $$ GRIFFIS/MOHR ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 1130 AM CDT SAT JUN 5 2004 .DISCUSSION...JUST UPDATE PICTURES AND WORDS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS OF CLOUDS AND TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION CHANCES. DEBRIS CLOUDS MOST PREVALENT OVER EASTERN AREAS AND TEMPERATURES WILL REFLECT AS SUCH...AND 80S SOUTHWEST ZONES WITH MORE SUN. SOUTHWEST ZONES WOULD PROBABLY BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER WAVE SLIDE BY AND SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN TROUGH AND HILL CITY. MOISTURE IS MARGINAL THROUGHOUT...BUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. MAIN ACTION SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWFA FOR THE MOST PART. .PREV DISCUSSION...LL MASS FLUX WITHIN LLJ AXIS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDGE POKING IN FM THE W AIDING CONVN THIS AM... PARTICULARLY ACRS NC KS AND OVR NE SANDHILLS. FCST DILEMMA LIES W/EVOLUTION OF SANDHILLS CONV CLUSTER THROUGH THIS AM AND POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN ALG ADV WK FRONTAL BNDRY DROPPING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS IN ASSOCN/W LEAD TROF. GIVEN STEEP EML SPREADING OUT OVERTOP CWA THIS AM AND DEEP LL MSTR PLUME IN PLACE...SEE NO REASON FOR DVLPG MCS OVR THE SANDHILLS OR COMING OUT OF SW SD TO DECAY GIVEN FVRBL LLJ. EXTRAPOLATION PER 850- 300MB THICKNESSES CLIPS NE CORNER OF CWA BTWN 9-12Z W/SANDHILLS ACTIVITY AND THRU 18Z W/SD LEFT OVERS IN LINE W/SHRT TERM RUCII PROGS. OTHERWISE SUSPECT KS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE CLEARED THAT AREA BY 12Z. AFTN CHCS RELEGATED TO DEGREE OF DIURNAL RECOVERY AND DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. HWVR SYNOPTIC SIGNAL WEAK ESP IN REGARD TO SUSTAINED CVRG ALG WK SFC BNDRY. ALTHOUGH GIVEN ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION LIKE ETA PROGS...NO AT ALL OUT OF THE QN. FOR NOW WILL CONCENTRATE ON AM ACTIVITY AND ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY. WILL TRY REFINING AFT PD BUT TIME WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SHORT AS FOCUS SHIFTS QUICKLY INTO KS TONIGHT. HOPEFULLY IT PANS OUT.? AFT THAT...WRN TROF/CNTRL US RIDGE DVLPMNT SIGNAL TORRID WEEK HERE. PERHAPS A SHOT AT SOME NEEDED PRECIP THU NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST BUT SIGNAL MIXED AT BEST THIS FAR OUT. HWVR WARMING UPR RIDGE LOOKS TO FLIRT W/100 DEGREE READINGS ACRS THE SW QUARTER OF THE CWA BY MID WEEK W/90S ELSEWHERE. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && EFFECTIVE JUNE 8 2004 THIS PRODUCT WILL HAVE THE ID CHANGED FROM OMAAFDGRI...TO OMAAFDGID. FOR MORE INFORMATION CHECK OUT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS/USE LOWER CASE LETTERS: HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/PUBLIC/WMOHEADERS/CR_PHASE1.HTM $$ T/MORITZ ne