NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 AM MST SAT AUG 7 1999
SYNOPSIS...DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN
ARIZONA. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL BE UNDER THE SYNOPTIC SCALE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PACNW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. QUICK LOOK AT RUC AND MESOETA MODELS
SHOWS DRY AIR REMAINING OVER WESTERN TW0-THIRDS OF CWA AND MOVING
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BELIEVE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
CWA WILL HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RW/TRW TODAY AS MOISTURE
BOUNDARY AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR HUGS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
TODAY WITH DRY AIR AND STRONGER SW FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT LESS ACTIVITY
ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES EASTWARD. ABOVE TRENDS
HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT PACKAGE. NO UPDATES PLANNED ATTM. TW
.FLG...NONE.
FXUS65 KTWC 071618 az
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
840 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999
TOO WARM AND DRY ALOFT...AND THAT ALONG WITH TOO MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND FOR THE CUMULUS LINE TO DEVELOP MADE FOR A VERY QUIET WEATHER
DAY EARLIER TODAY. CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DOES SHOW AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THERE IS SOME
CONVECTION FROM ANDROS AND THE BIMINIS TO THE CAY SAL BANK.
WITH VERY DEEP...ALBEIT RATHER WEAK EASTERLIES WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST MOVE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT. THERE
IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS UP TO 2 INCHES...AND
IT
IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE OVER 4000...LIFTED INDEX OF -8 AND THE
K-INDEX IS 31. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT STEERING FLOW IS FROM ABOUT 070
DEGREES...WHICH WOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OFFSHORE
IN THE STRAITS. I WILL DEBATE WHETHER TO DROP POPS FOR THE KEYS TO
WIDELY SCATTERED FOR TONIGHT.
UNLESS SOME RAIN-COOLED AIR MOVES IN...THE CURRENT LOW TEMPS FOR
TONIGHT LOOK A LITTLE TOO LOW WITH THE WARM EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE
OFF 86 TO 88 DEGREE WATER TEMPS. I MAY TWEAK TEMPS UPWARD.
CONCERN FOR SUNDAY IS WHETHER OR NOT THE CUMULUS LINE DEVELOPS.
MODELS SHOW TOO MUCH WIND FOR IT TO BE A MAJOR FACTOR...AND WITH
STEERING FLOW EAST TO SOUTHEAST...CUBA AND THE PENINSULA ACTIVITY
WOULD NEVER GET HERE. IF CUMULUS LINE DOES NOT DEVELOP AS MODELS
SUGGEST...THEN POPS WOULD BE OVERDONE.
WINDS IN MARINE FORECAST MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH TONIGHT. I WILL LIKELY
KEEP WINDS AT 10 KTS TONIGHT...MORE IN LINE WITH 00Z SOUNDING...21Z
RUC AND THE EARLIER ETA WHICH HAS BEEN VERIFYING WELL.
.EYW...NONE
MOHLIN
FXUS62 KJAX 080029 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
905 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 1999
UPDT TO ZFP TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING. TROF/WNDSHFT ROUGHLY FM
CHI/PIA/IRK AT 02Z...WITH SECONDARY FNT/BNDRY ACROSS CNTRL WI/SERN
MN MARKING SFC DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG
SOUTHERN BNDRY WKNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND DRIFTING SE
AWAY FROM FA. SHWRS ALNG NRN BNDRY...VCNTY OF LSE...EXPCTD TO WEAKEN
NXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS PER 00Z RUC FCSTS. THEREFORE...LGT SHOWERS
NOW OVR CHI SRN SUBURBS AND TSTMS OVR FAR SERN CWA SHOULD COME TO AN
END BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH MO CLDY SKIES OVRNGT.
.CHI...NONE.
RATZER
FXUS63 KDVN 080151 il
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
250 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 1999
SFC ANAL SHOWS CURRENT MCS CONTS TO MOVE ALONG EAST INTO IND WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERATED ACROSS SWRN IL FIRING TSRA JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF CEN IL. SFC COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM ERN IA TO NWRN MO TO
ERN KS. VIS SATL SHOWS SOME NICE CU DVLPING ALONG THE FRONT WHERE
SOME CLRG HAS DVLPD. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA WITH THE BEST
INSTABILITY AS SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED THINGS TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT. 75
DEG DWPTS ARE ALSO POOLING ALONG THE FRONT.
SHORT TERM PROBLEMS ARE WHETHER ANY TSRA WILL MOVE BACK INTO CEN IL
THIS EVE AND TNGT WITH THE FRONT. LOTS OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
ALONG THE FRONT IN NRN MO BUT THIS AREA WAS WORKED OVER EARLIER TDY.
SO STRENGTH OF FRONT WILL HAVE TO WORK AGAINST THE CAPPED ATMOS.
WILL MAKE A PRESS TIME DISCISION ON POPS FOR THIS EVE...WITH THE
FRONT MAKING ITS WAY CLOSER TO IL...IF ANYTHING DOES DVLP.
TSRA/SHRA IF THEY DVLP ALONG THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY BE ITS LAST
SHOT AS MODELS BRING FRONT INTO IL BY 06Z. 15Z RUC EVEN SPEEDS THIS
UP TO AROUND 03Z WHICH WITH THE CURRENT SPEED OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE GOOD TIMING. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT SO MOSTLY
CLOUDY TNGT WITH POSSIBLY SOME FOG WITH THE AREAS THAT RECIEVED THE
MOST RAIN. MAY KEEP THE SHRA CHC AROUND LONGER IN THE SE WITH THE
COLD FRONT LINGERING TIL TIL 12Z IN THE THIS AREA.
LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE NW OF IL...SO WITH MID LVL FLOW FROM THE
NW WILL INCREASE CLOUDS TO PARTLY SUNNY TMRW BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
PRES BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AS NW FLOW KEEPS THINGS PRETTY PROGRESSIVE
ACROSS IL WITH WK S/WV'S MAKING THIER WAY DOWN FROM CAN FOR TUES AND
WED IN THE EXTENDED.
GUID NUMBERS LOOK FINE FOR TNGT AND WITH INCREASED CLOUDS FOR
TMRW...FWC NUMBERS LOOK FINE.
SPI BB 067/081 057/081 060 22400
PIA BB 065/080 056/081 061 22400
DEC BB 067/081 057/081 061 22500
CMI BB 066/080 056/081 060 22500
MTO BB 068/082 057/082 062 22600
LWV BB 068/082 056/082 062 22500
.ILX...NONE.
KETCHAM
FXUS63 KDVN 071945 il
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
855 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999
TWO ITEMS TO CONCENTRATE ON THIS EVE. 1ST IS AREA OF CNVCTN AND
CDFNT IN THE MIDWEST. MSAS SFC ANALY PLACES CDFNT NRN IL/MO. BETTER
ENHANCEMENT EVIDENT IN SE MO/SRN IL/SRN IND/WRN KY. MVMT STEADY
EWD...AND MESOETA HNDLG OF SYSTEM OK...PERHAPS A TOUCH TOO SLOW. 21Z
RUC SIMLR. MESOETA PROG PLACES QPF ON WRN DOORSTEP ARND 12Z. GUD
DEWPT POOLING IN ASSOC W FNT. RTNS CLS ENUF TO JUSTIFY ADDTN OF 30
POP IN WRN ZNS.
2ND ITEM IS 70F PLUS DEWPTS CRAWLING UP SE CST TWD CHSPK BAY IN
RSNBL S/SE FLW. AREA MTRS REPORT WNDS ABT 5KT W/ EITHER A SLY/ELY
COMPONENT. THERE ARE SOME XCPTNS...MAINLY W/ WNDSPD. IN RESPONSE...
NYG DEWPT 67...NHK 71. WL REGROUP ZNS TO THE S AND E OF DCA-BWI
LN...AND PLACE THEM WITH THE CITIES.
FEEL THIS NXT SYSTM PROVIDE BEST CHC OF PCPN CWFA HAS SEEN IN A WHL.
SETUP DOES SEEM SIMLR TO JULY 24TH...ALTHO MSTR NOT QUITE AS
PLENTIFUL...AND THUS INSTAB NOT QUITE AS GREAT. WL RESIST TEMPTATION
TO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS...AND ALLOW MID SHIFT TO DO THE HNRS...DEPENDING
UPON WHAT THE NEW MDL GUID REVEALS. THUS...CHGS TO 2ND-4TH PDS
COSMETIC.
ZFP/EOL TO HIT THE STREETS ARND 930 PM. COMMENTS ALWAYS WELCOMED.
G'NGT!
.LWX...NONE.
HTS
FXUS61 KLWX 071813 md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
1010 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999
RUC PICKS UP ON A WEAK VORT MAX MOVG THRU OH THIS MRNG. THIS IS
SPREADING SOME MID AND HI CLDS E. TIMING WOULD BRING SOME OF THESE
ACRS THE FA DURG THE AFTN. RUC ALSO SHOWS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT MID
LEVELS MOVG INTO THE FA THIS AFTN. WL CHG MSTLY SUNNY FCST TO PTLY
SUNNY THIS AFTN. WITH THE ADDED CLDS WL DROP MAXES SLIGHTLY EVEN
THOUGH MRNG SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CURRENT FCST IF THERE IS FULL SUN.
ALL MODELS SHOW NEXT CHC FOR PRECIP ON SUN. SHD BE AN AREA OF TSTMS
MOVG ACRS THE FA ON SUN. WL WAIT FOR NEW MODELS BEFORE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO LATER FCST RAINS.
.LWX...NONE.
JAB
md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1000 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT SPARKED A SIGNIFICANT
AREA OF SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY...RUC SHOWS THIS MOISTURE AXIS
SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. KAPX 88D RADAR LOOP SHOWS THIS
WELL WITH THE SHOWERS THINNING AROUND 0Z AND DISSIPATING THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE UP AND LAKE
MICHIGAN HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A BAND OF SHOWERS BUT EVEN
THIS IS HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE.
PRIMARY PROBLEMS FOR TONIGHTS UPDATES... WINDS AND PRECIPITATION.
RUC SHOWS SOME DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT THAT DOESN/T APPEAR
TO BE HAPPENING BASED ON MSAS AND SURFACE ANALYSIS. VAD WIND
PROFILE FROM AREA WSR-88DS AND APX SOUNDING MINIMALLY SUPPORT A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEHIND THE FRONT. ONLY STATION REPORTING THOSE
WINDS ARE STANNARD ROCK AND 45004. DON/T BELIEVE THE NEARSHORE
AREAS WILL SEE MUCH OF THAT WIND BUT WILL RAISE SMALL CRAFT IF THOSE
SIGHTS WINDS CONTINUE THIS HOUR.
WILL MAKE CHANGES TO CURRENT ZONES FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. CLOUD
COVER IN CURRENT ZONES IS WELL HANDLED WITH MENTION OF SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN WESTERN AREAS. ETA AND RUC MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW
THESE VFR CEILINGS TO MAKE IT THERE AROUND 9Z. THOUGH MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW THIS...IF TRENDS CONTINUE ACROSS WISCONSIN I
WILL AMEND THE TAFS EARLY TO REFLECT THESE IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
COORDINATED WITH MQT
.APX...NONE.
HIRSCH
FXUS63 KMQT 080201 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
352 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999
KAPX 88D SHOWING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GENERALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF
M-32...WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALSO PUSHING EAST OF THE ST MARY'S RIVER. RAIN
OVER LOWER MICHIGAN PRIMARILY FORCED BY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALTHOUGH
THE BEST MOISTURE INFLOW FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER THIS EVENING. KMQT
88D BEGINNING TO SHOW A FEW RETURNS OVER WESTERN UPPER ALONG COLD FRONT
LINED UP FROM CMX-EAU-DSM AT 19Z. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM TONIGHT IS ENDING
RAIN CHANCES...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
SHORT TERM MODELS PROGGING SIMILAR IDEAS...WITH COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS
STATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS FOR NORTH CENTRAL/ NORTHEAST LOWER THIS
EVENING...WITH SCATTERED POPS EASTERN UPPER AND AREAS WEST OF U.S. 131.
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED IN 12Z GRB RAOB AND IN 15Z RUC MODEL
SOUNDINGS...SO PLAN TO MAINTAIN THUNDER MENTION IN FORECAST THOUGH SHOULD
BE PREDOMINANTLY RAIN SHOWERS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE SETS IN OVERNIGHT IN
CAA PATTERN AND IN RFQ OF UPPER JET PUNCHING INTO ONTARIO. VISIBLE LOOP
SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER UPSTREAM...SOME OF WHICH IS CONVECTIVE
AND WILL LIKELY FALL APART WITH SUNSET. WILL MENTION PARTIAL CLEARING
ALL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL COOLING WILL PROMOTE A GOOD DEAL OF CU/SC DURING
THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL PREVENT DIURNAL SHOWERS FROM
DEVELOPING. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD WORK...THOUGH THINK THERE WILL
BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S TO MID 70S...WARMEST OVER EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES WITH NORTH/
NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPING WIND. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.
.EXTENDED...NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS NORTHEAST
U.S. TROF AND WESTERN RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH RISING HEIGHTS INTO THE
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK AS WARMER TEMPERATURES MAKE A COMEBACK. EXTENDED MODELS
SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES ON TUESDAY REGARDING PROGGED SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE
REFLECTIONS. CANADIAN/NOGAPS SWING WEAK SURFACE LOWS THROUGH THE STATE ON
TUESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WIDESPREAD RAIN. BUT EACH
MODEL PEGS ITS SURFACE DEVELOPMENT ON A DIFFERENT FEATURE...WITH THE NOGAPS
PUSHING A DECENT WAVE OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO THE STATE. MRF DROPS A
WEAK UPPER WAVE INTO THE STATE TUESDAY EVENING...AND THOUGH ITS INITIAL
SURFACE LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS NEVER REACHES THE WESTERN LAKES...THE MODEL
IS INDICATING AN 850MB TROF AXIS AND DECENT WAA. ECMWF KEEPS STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE REGION RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...A SOLUTION THE
MRF IS TRENDING AWAY FROM ALTHOUGH ITS RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY LEAVES MUCH
TO BE DESIRED. 12Z SHORT RANGE PROGS LEANING TOWARD CANADIAN MODEL IDEA
OF MOVING A SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
PLAN TO PUSH RAIN CHANCES UP INTO THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FORECAST...
THEN DRY THINGS OUT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
IN AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES TOWARD THE LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY WHERE
AN ALL DAY CLOUD COVER WOULD KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S. WARMER
WEATHER COULD BE ON THE WAY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IF ZONAL FLOW AND
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP AS PROGGED.
COORDINATED WITH GRR/MQT/DTX.
.APX...NONE.
JPB
FXUS63 KGRR 071951 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1125 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999
CFNT ERN MN... WRMFNT KEWEENAW SE THRU CENT UPR MI. CFNT TO ENTER
WRN LK SUPERIOR MID AFTN AND PASS THROUGH CENTRAL UPR MI DURG
EVENING. KMQT VWP INDICATES MAIN CLD BASE 140 ATTM.
SHWRS ERN LK SUPERIOR TIED TO 700-500 MB Q-VEC CONVGC AXIS AND
UNSTABLE AIR...MVG E. SHWRS/ISOLD TSTMS DVLPG WRN LK SUPERIOR ASSOC
W/LEADING EDGE OF RUC DEPICTED PVA WITH APCHG SHRT WV FM NW.
WHEREAS DYNAMICS ARE FAVORABLE FOR AFTN ORGANIZED STRONG
CONVECTION... MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND INSOLATION ARE LIMITING
FACTORS. 700-400 MB QG FORCING PRESENT ALONG WITH 300-200 MB
DIVERGENCE IN RGT ENTRANCE RGN OF JET STRK THIS AFTN FAVOR THE
CONVECTION. 200-400 CAPES...HIGHEST IN SRN UPR MI...AND NEAR 0 LI
INDICATE DYNAMIC FORCING TO SUPPORT ISOLD TSTMS BUT BLO SVR LEVELS.
WILL INCREASE AFTN MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEG IN WRN AND SRN ZONES AND
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS.
.MQT...NONE.
PELLETT
FXUS63 KGRR 071444 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1043 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999
WILL KEEP THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING FORECAST... SINCE CURRENT TRENDS
STILL INDICATE THAT PCPN WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER... MAY ADJUST WORDING SOME AND NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
OVER THE WEST.
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN... WITH MAINLY LIGHT ACTIVITY NOTED. SOME OF THIS IS NOT
REACHING THE GROUND... PER UPSTREAM SURFACE OBS... BUT SOME
LOCATIONS DID REPORT RAIN AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVED THROUGH. THIS AREA
OF PCPN IS DEPICTED NICELY ON THE 12Z RUC 310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE...
WITH GOOD UPGLIDE AND LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS INDICATED
OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AT 15Z. THE RUC PROGS
THIS AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW CPDS INTO OUR AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON... WITH THE BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDER BY LATE AFTERNOON... AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS MOVE INTO THE
AREA... AND THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES... PRODUCING DECENT 850MB
THETA-E ADVECTION. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA IS A
TOUGHER CALL FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS... SINCE THEY ARE IN A BIT OF A
GAP BETWEEN THE GOOD BAROCLINIC FORCING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE
BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING NEAR THE UPPER JET TO OUR NORTH. THIS GAP IS
SHOWN IN THE RUC/S 850-500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FIELDS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO DE-STABILIZE SOME THIS AFTERNOON... WITH A BIT MORE
IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. THE NEW ETA DEPICTS SOME INSTABILITY... WITH
CAPES OF AROUND 700 J/KG... OVER THIS AREA BY EVENING. FEEL THEIR
BEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL COME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING... ONCE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE.
SO... WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS WHERE
THEY ARE CURRENTLY MENTIONED. HOWEVER... MAY WORD THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE AREA AS BEING MAINLY TOWARD EVENING. WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER
ALREADY INTO WESTERN LOWER... WILL NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
OVER THE WEST TO LINE UP MORE WITH THE LATEST LAMP AND RUC GUIDANCE.
ZONES WILL BE ISSUED BY 1115 AM.
.GRR...NONE.
TRH
FXUS63 KAPX 071441 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 1999
FCST CHALLENGE...CHC TSRA EARLY FIRST PD...THEN TEMPS.
MAIN FOCUS TODAY HAS BEEN DEALING WITH WIDESPREAD FLOODING...AND
ASSOC PUBLIC RELATIONS.
MIDDAY SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK CDFNT ACRS SERN NEBR/KS
BORDER...MOVG SLOWLY SEWD. WITH GOOD INSOLATION IN VCNTY THIS
BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH EVAPOTRANS/POOLING AND CONVERGENCE...
THOUGHT REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA WOULD BE PSBL THIS AFTERNOON. HAS
NOT HAPPENED YET...AND LAPS AND RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME SFC
INHIBITION. WL WAIT TIL LAST MINUTE TO DECIDE IF WL MENTION IN ZONES
SERN CWFA.
WEAK 500MB SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN WNW FLOW CONT TO MOVE SEWD OVR ERN
NEBR...WITH VAPOR LOOP INDICATING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS FEATURE OVR
SD AND WRN NEBR. THEREFORE...TREND TONIGHT WL BE INCR STABILITY AND
ASSOC SUBSIDENCE AS WK SFC RDG AND SLIGHTLY DRYER AIR MOVS IN. WITH
RECENT FLOODING...HAVE MENTIONED PTCHY AREAS FOG ECNTRL NEBR..GIVEN
LGT NLY WNDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY SLIGHT MIXING.
FOR SUN...SFC RDG MOVS TWD GREAT LAKES...AND WRMFNT/LEE TROF
DVLPS ACRS NRN HI PLAINS. THUS...WARMUP WILL BEGIN AS 500MB HTS BLD
AND SUBSIDENCE CONT. SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING /WAA/ COMMENCES WELL TO
NORTH ACRS ND...EAST OF WARM CORE TROF AND WRMFNT. THIS WL LEAVE
CWFA MAINLY DRY. CU FIELD EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...WHICH COULD HOLD DOWN AFTERNOON HIGHS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
MON...EVEN WARMER TEMPS ANTICIPATED AS SFC LOW DROPS INTO SD WITH
INCR SLY WNDS AND MIXING POTENTIAL. MODELS AGREE THAT MAJORITY OF
PRECIP TO OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF WRMFNT...OVR ERN DAKOTAS AND MN
MON...POSBLY AFFECTING AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS NRN CWFA. LLJ AND
VEERING 850MB WNDS FOCUS BEST WAA AT NOSE OF LLJ OVR ERN SD...WITH
BROAD AND WEAKER AREA WAA EXTENDING SOUTH THRU CWFA. THO BEST CHC
ELEVATED CONVECTION WL BE TO N AS DEPICTED IN MODEL QPFS SUN NIGHT...HAVE
INCLUDED SLIGHT POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON NRN CWFA FOR THIS
SCENARIO. SLUG OF ETA 300MB DIV SEEMS TO PICK UP THIS POSBL MCS SRN
MN AND NW IA MON MORN.
.OMA...NONE
BZ
FXUS63 KLBF 071919 ne
MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
900 PM PDT SAT AUG 7 1999
SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF THE
WEST COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AIR OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION. WEATHER DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL
SERVE TO BRING OCCASIONAL CLOUDINESS...MAINLY TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA
THROUGH MONDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED...WITH
CONTINUING AFTERNOON BREEZES.
DISCUSSION...COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH OFF W COAST THIS EVENING. NRN
PORTION OF THE TROUGH LIFTING N ACROSS THE PAC NW AND SRN PORTION
TRYING TO REFORM OFF CA COAST AS ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY DRIVES DOWN
BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN PART OF
THE TROUGH HAS LIFTED N INTO NRN NV THIS EVENING WITH SKIES CLEAR
THERE.
NOTED VORTICITY MAXIMUM ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGES NEAR 35N/125W
APPROACHING CENTRAL CA COAST. 12Z MODELS DID NOT DEPICT THIS FEATURE
WELL BUT 00Z ETA/RUC SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT UP WITH REALITY. FORECAST IS
FOR THIS VORT MAX TO SHEAR AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES N INTO CENTRAL CA
BY 12Z SUN THEN UP INTO WRN NV DURING THE DAY. UNLIKE LAST
NIGHT...THIS VORT MAX WILL NOT PROVIDE NW PART OF FORECAST AREA WITH
DYNAMICS AND/OR CLOUDS SO CURRENT CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST
OVERNIGHT LOOKS GOOD. PROXIMITY OF THE VORT MAX IN COMBINATION WITH
UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND 500-300MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL STILL
PRODUCE SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS SUNDAY OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA. CURRENT BREEZY CONDITIONS
MENTIONED IN FORECAST IN LINE WITH 00Z NGM MOS GUIDANCE. NOT PLANNING
ANY CHANGES TO EXISTING PACKAGE.
AS ADDITIONAL JET ENERGY DIVES DOWN BACKSIDE OF TROUGH...SRN PART
CLOSES OFF ANOTHER UPPER LOW LATE SUN WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVING S DOWN
THE COAST MONDAY. NOTICED THAT 00Z ETA IS NOW A LITTLE FARTHER
OFFSHORE AND FARTHER S WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN 12Z AVN RUN INDICATED.
PREVIOUS THINKING WAS THAT THIS UPPER LOW WOULD EVENTUALLY OPEN UP
AND SWING ONSHORE ACROSS CENTRAL CA MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NOW THERE
SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER IT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND CONTINUE
DROPPING S. STILL LOOKS LIKE WINDS AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE HOW MUCH
MOISTURE GETS DRAWN BACK INTO AZ IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. TO SAY
THE LEAST...VERY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR EARLY AUGUST.
NEMETH
.LAS...NONE.
FXUS65 KREV 080354 nv
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
946 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999
FLAT ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO CONT ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY.
09Z RUC IS SHOWING A VERY WEAK S/WV TO MOVE ACROSS BUT LITTLE TO NO
UVM IS INDICATED. RUC SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE TO BE OVER THE AREA
THAN YESTERDAY BUT 12Z SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW THIS MOISTURE. ATMOS
IS CAPPED AGAIN TODAY SO IF ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EXPECT IT TO BE
ISOLATED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE ZONES.
HEAT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR THE AFTN AND THIS LOOKS GOOD. SOME
INLAND LOCATIONS COULD HIT WARNING CRITERIA BUT ATTM NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING AS CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
BAD SUNDAY. WILL RAISE TEMPS FOR INLAND SC TO NEAR 100 AND INLAND
COASTAL SC TO UPPER 90S. WILL ALSO RAISE EXPECTED HI/S TO 110 TO
115 RANGE.
CWF: WINDS PRETTY LIGHT ATTM BUT EXPECT THEM TO PICK UP OUT TO THE
SW THIS AFTN WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
PLANNED.
.ILM...HEAT ADVISORY NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-
039-046.
IRELAND
nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
850 PM SAT AUG 7 1999
INITIAL BATCH OF PCPN CONTG TO OVRSPRD NW HALF OF FA THIS EVNG.
DWPTS STILL IN THE UPPER 50S ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF FA AND PCPN HAVING
A BIT OF A TUF TIME MOVG INTO DRIER AIR. COMPOSITE RADAR SHWG PCPN
OVR NRN IND BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD PAST HR OR SO AND THIS IN AREA OF
BETTER UPR LVL DYNAMICS. 00Z RUC NOT AS STG AS 12Z MDLS AND
MESOETA...BUT STILL BRINGG UPR LVL DIVG/LLVL CONV COUPLET ACRS FA
OVRNGT SO WL HANG ONTO HI POPS MOST AREAS. AM XPCTG SRN EDGE OF CRNT
PCPN TO CONT TO FIZZLE AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR SO AM CRNTLY
PLANNING ON LEAVING AFTER MIDNIGHT WORDING IN PMH/FAR SRN GROUP.
NO CHG TO TMP FCST PLANNED.
.ILN...NONE.
LOTT
FXUS61 KCLE 080038 oh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1017 AM CDT SAT AUG 7 1999
LATEST RUC MDL SHOWS A LOT OF LL RH REMAINING INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE ABR CWA. AS A RESULT...THE EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS SHOWN ON
SATELLITE AND SFC OBS WILL BE SLOW TO MIX OUT. WITH THE LOW CLOUDS AND
CAA...TEMPS WILL NOT DO MUCH RISING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. NORTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON THE FRONTSIDE OF CANADIAN HIGH.
PRECIP IS OVER AS COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA LATE
THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO MAKE SEVERAL CHANGES.
.ABR...NONE.
MOHR
FXUS63 KFSD 071458 sd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
944 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999
ATMOSPHERE QUITE DRY AND STABLE THIS MORNING. LATEST MESO-ETA AND
RUC MODEL PROGS INDICATE A WEAK S/W SYSTEM ALOFT JUST UPSTREAM OF THE
FA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THESE SAME MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW H10/5 MEAN RH
DISTRIBUTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...SO NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS GOOD.
ALSO...BASED ON H10/5 THICKNESS TRENDS...LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER
THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY (WHICH THE FIRST PERIOD ZONES
REFLECT). DESPITE THIS...WILL TRIM BACK AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE NORTH
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU ZONE WHERE IT LOOKS A LITTLE TOO WARM.
OTHERWISE...NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES PLANNED.
.MRX...NONE.
DM
FXUS64 KMEG 070836 tn
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
930 PM CDT SAT AUG 7 1999
THE UPPER AIR OB WENT BAD AROUND 700 MB...SO REALLY HAVE LITTLE NEW
DATA TO ANALYZE AT THIS WRITING. THE VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS A
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND ABOVE THE DECK...WHICH MIXED DOWN TODAY AND
MANAGED TO KICK THE WIND UP TO AROUND THE 15 KT AND GUSTY RANGE.
SURFACE PRESSURE IS DRIFTING UP IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS AS
WARM CORE LOW RECEDES WEST UP RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN FACE OF INTRUDING
GULF HIGH PRESSURE. THE WIND IS SHOWING A CORRESPONDING DECREASE
NOW TOO.
THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER ACTIVITY GENERATED BY THE SEA BREEZE
PETERED OUT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS EARLIER THIS EVENING.
IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN IS BREAKING UP AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE...WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED IN SHEAR AXIS OVER
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N95W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE/RIDGING
ON EAST SIDE WAS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE...YUCATAN...WESTERN CUBA AS WELL AS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS WEST OF 82W (TWDAT). THE TIMING OF THIS
UPPER INSTABILITY MOVING WEST TO NORTHWEST SUGGESTS ANY REMNANTS
COULD ENTER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING.
THE LATEST RUC SHOWS A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE 700 MB FIELD MOVING
ASHORE TONIGHT...AND WITH THE THETA-E AXIS ALIGNED NORTH TO SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. EARLIER MODELS ALSO KEEP MOISTURE UP THROUGH 0812Z
BEFORE BEGINNING A DRYING TREND IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK...SO WILL NOT TINKER WITH IT.
WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT.
SYN/MESO...BHM.54/HMT...ABBOTT
.BRO...NONE.
FXUS64 KAMA 080215 tx
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1015 AM CDT SAT AUG 7 1999
NO CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS INCREASE BY
0.1 INCH OVERALL FROM YESTERDAY AND THE UPPER HIGH HAS STRENGTHENED
OVER SOUTHERN U.S. HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON. GOES SOUNDING PROFILES AND LAND BASED
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 90S(WHICH
WILL BE REACHED AROUND 1 PM). LATEST RUC MODEL INDICATES A BRIEF
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT 850 MB. SO EXPECT
SOME SHORT LIVED CUMULUS CLOUDS. A LOW LEVEL JET HAS RETURNED TO
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH NO FETCH OVER THE GULF.
AS ALWAYS, COMMENTS WELCOMED!
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS
AUS 099/072 099/073 0000
SAT 099/074 100/074 0000
DRT 101/076 102/076 0000
.EWX...OZONE ACTION DAY TODAY AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO.
06/08/DC
FXUS64 KBRO 071511 tx
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1045 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999
LAYER OF MOISTURE AROUND 750 MB WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR A LITTLE BIT OF
ACCAS AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN THAT THE ONLY OTHER LAYER
OF MOISTURE WAS ABOVE 550 MB WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUNDING
QUITE DRY. DON'T FORSEE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION TO WARRANT ANY
POPS THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL ADJUST ZONES ACCORDINGLY. THE ONLY
FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION THAT I COULD FIND WAS BOUNDARY OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS...REMNANTS FROM FRONT 2 DAYS AGO...AND THE
BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH IS SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT TO OVERCOME MID
LEVEL CAP...BUT ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BE EAST OF THE RNK
CWA. THE MESO-ETA IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE AND UVM
BLOSSOMING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT THE RUC.
OTHER THAN DROPPING POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED. NEXT QUESTION IS WHETHER TO LEAVE POPS IN
FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS INDICATE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SINCE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
DRY...BIGGEST BY-PRODUCT FROM LIFT WILL BE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AND VERY LITTLE PRECIP. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE FCST FOR THIS
PERIOD ALONE AND LOOK AT MORE DATA B4 ADJUSTING THE PRECIP THREAT.
AS FOR SUNDAY...APPROACH OF FRONT WILL PROVIDE LIFT NEEDED FOR
AREAWIDE THREAT OF PRECIP. CONFIDENCE OF RAINFALL IN THIS PERIOD OF
THE FCST IS MUCH HIGHER.
.RNK...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
PM
FXUS61 KAKQ 071408 va
WAKEFIELD FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999
DSCN: 12Z SOUNDINGS STILL FAIRLY DRY AND CAPPED ACRS THE REGION...
MEAN LLVL FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS AND VRBL...SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING LWR
TO MID 90S WITH FULL SUN. LTST SATL TRENDS SHOW MUCH OF CI DEBRIS
SHLD PASS THRU NRN CWA...AND ALONG WITH 12Z RUC INDICATING WK PVA
AT 500H...WILL GO WITH P SUNNY N...AND M SUNNY S THIS AFTN. VRBL
WINDS INLD...WITH SEA BREEZES IN CSTL AREAS. ISOLD (10%) ACTVTY PSBL
ALONG SEA BREEZES THIS AFTN...BUT WL KEEP OUT OF FCST.
.CWF...NO CHGS.
.AKQ...NONE.
HESS
va
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 AM MST SAT AUG 7 1999
SYNOPSIS...DRY AIR OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN
ARIZONA. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE CWA
WILL BE UNDER THE SYNOPTIC SCALE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PACNW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. QUICK LOOK AT RUC AND MESOETA MODELS
SHOWS DRY AIR REMAINING OVER WESTERN TW0-THIRDS OF CWA AND MOVING
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BELIEVE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
CWA WILL HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RW/TRW TODAY AS MOISTURE
BOUNDARY AND HIGHER THETA-E AIR HUGS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.
ELSEWHERE...BREEZY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
TODAY WITH DRY AIR AND STRONGER SW FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT LESS ACTIVITY
ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVES EASTWARD. ABOVE TRENDS
HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT PACKAGE. NO UPDATES PLANNED ATTM. TW
.FLG...NONE.
FXUS65 KTWC 071618 az
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
305 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 1999
... SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY AND PART OF MONDAY...
PRIMARY COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI TO CENTRAL IOWA AT 06Z.
SKIES CLEAR NICELY ABOUT 60 MILES BEHIND THE SFC COLD FRONT. THIS
AREA IS CURRENTLY OVER NRN WI. ETA/RUC BRING CLRG INTO SW LWR BY
12Z AND KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLD FREE THE REST OF SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING. NGM HAS MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DOES NOT CLEAR
SKIES TILL EARLY AFTERNOON. BASED ON TIME TOOL ON AWIPS... CLEARING
WILL MOVE ACROSS CWA BTWN 09Z AND 15Z. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOC WITH THE COLD AIR COMING IN... WILL GO WITH THE
BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY IDEA. AIR TO DRY FOR MUCH IF ANY CU TODAY.
SOME INDICATIONS OF MORE CU E THEN WEST BUT WILL NOT MESS WITH THAT
IDEA (ETA KEEPS MORE 850 MOISTURE OVER ERN LWR MI LONGER).
NEXT SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE IN THE PAC NW AND WILL RACE
ACROSS THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER SRN CANADA MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM... BUT WITH MOST LONG RANGE MODELS
SHOWING SIG AMOUNT OF ENERGY FROM ALASKA TROF MOVING INTO WRN
CANADA... THIS WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO TAKE A
MORE NRLY TRACK AND KEEP THE BEST DYNAMICS N OF SW LWR TUE. EVEN
SO... ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE ADV/ETC TO KEEP CHC OF SHWRS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WILL PUT INCREASING CLDS MONDAY
AFTERNOON (NRN 1/2 CWA) FOR WAA CLDS ASSOC WITH THIS WAVE. NRN
AREAS WILL SEE MORE OF THIS THEN SRN AREAS SO WILL HAVE BCMG PARTLY
CLOUDY SRN PART OF CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AS FOR TEMPS... VARIOUS FCST METHODS SUPPORT HIGHS IN MID 70S TODAY
AND MONDAY SO WILL GO CLOSE TO MOS BOTH DAYS. AIR WILL BE QUITE DRY
TONIGHT ABOVE SFC... SO GOOD RADIATION COOLING WITH HIGH OVERHEAD TOO.
THUS WILL FCST LOWS MID 40S TO NEAR 50 NRN AREAS AND NEAR 50 SOUTH.
ZONES BY 400 AM.
.GRR...NONE.
WDM
FXUS63 KAPX 080217 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1000 PM EDT SAT AUG 7 1999
MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT SPARKED A SIGNIFICANT
AREA OF SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY...RUC SHOWS THIS MOISTURE AXIS
SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. KAPX 88D RADAR LOOP SHOWS THIS
WELL WITH THE SHOWERS THINNING AROUND 0Z AND DISSIPATING THE PAST
HOUR OR TWO. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER THE UP AND LAKE
MICHIGAN HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A BAND OF SHOWERS BUT EVEN
THIS IS HAVING A LITTLE TROUBLE.
PRIMARY PROBLEMS FOR TONIGHTS UPDATES... WINDS AND PRECIPITATION.
RUC SHOWS SOME DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW BUT THAT DOESN/T APPEAR
TO BE HAPPENING BASED ON MSAS AND SURFACE ANALYSIS. VAD WIND
PROFILE FROM AREA WSR-88DS AND APX SOUNDING MINIMALLY SUPPORT A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEHIND THE FRONT. ONLY STATION REPORTING THOSE
WINDS ARE STANNARD ROCK AND 45004. DON/T BELIEVE THE NEARSHORE
AREAS WILL SEE MUCH OF THAT WIND BUT WILL RAISE SMALL CRAFT IF THOSE
SIGHTS WINDS CONTINUE THIS HOUR.
WILL MAKE CHANGES TO CURRENT ZONES FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. CLOUD
COVER IN CURRENT ZONES IS WELL HANDLED WITH MENTION OF SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN WESTERN AREAS. ETA AND RUC MOISTURE FIELDS SHOW
THESE VFR CEILINGS TO MAKE IT THERE AROUND 9Z. THOUGH MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW THIS...IF TRENDS CONTINUE ACROSS WISCONSIN I
WILL AMEND THE TAFS EARLY TO REFLECT THESE IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
COORDINATED WITH MQT
.APX...NONE.
HIRSCH
FXUS63 KMQT 080201 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
850 PM SAT AUG 7 1999
INITIAL BATCH OF PCPN CONTG TO OVRSPRD NW HALF OF FA THIS EVNG.
DWPTS STILL IN THE UPPER 50S ACRS ERN PORTIONS OF FA AND PCPN HAVING
A BIT OF A TUF TIME MOVG INTO DRIER AIR. COMPOSITE RADAR SHWG PCPN
OVR NRN IND BCMG MORE WIDESPREAD PAST HR OR SO AND THIS IN AREA OF
BETTER UPR LVL DYNAMICS. 00Z RUC NOT AS STG AS 12Z MDLS AND
MESOETA...BUT STILL BRINGG UPR LVL DIVG/LLVL CONV COUPLET ACRS FA
OVRNGT SO WL HANG ONTO HI POPS MOST AREAS. AM XPCTG SRN EDGE OF CRNT
PCPN TO CONT TO FIZZLE AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER AIR SO AM CRNTLY
PLANNING ON LEAVING AFTER MIDNIGHT WORDING IN PMH/FAR SRN GROUP.
NO CHG TO TMP FCST PLANNED.
.ILN...NONE.
LOTT
FXUS61 KCLE 080038 oh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
335 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 1999
ONLY SHORT TERM PRLBM TO WORRY ABOUT IS SOME STRATUS THAT HAS FORMED
IN N CNTRL NEB AND S CNTRL SD WEST OF FSD CWA...AND ARND THE KMML
VCNTY. THESE AREAS ARE EXPANDING...BUT THE AREA ARND KMML IS HAVING
TROUBLE GETTING OVR THE BUFFALO RIDGE. I DID GO AHD AND BREAK OFF
THE THREE S CNTRL CNTYS HOWEVER IN CASE SOME OF THIS STRATUS EXPANDS
INTO THERE. BOTH THE RUC...NGM AND ETA SHOW HIGH 925MB RH MSTR
STREAMING UP INTO THE AREA JUST WEST OF CWA THIS MRNG...SO WORTH
WATCHING.
WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH TDAY AS LLVL RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST. SOME
GOOD THTE RIDGING RETURNS TO THE WRN HALF OF SD SO KEPT A SLGT CHC
OF TSTMS GOING IN S CNTRL ZONE THIS AFTN. HIGHER POPS ARE PROBLY NOT
WARRANTED IN SWRN PTN OF CWA AS 850MB JET IS ONLY 15 TO 20 KTS AND
MSTR IS SEVERELY LACKING. MAINLY WENT WITH THE ETA AND NGM AGAIN FOR
THE 2ND AND 3RD PDS. BOTH MDLS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ABV THE
SFC...WHILE THE NGM HAS ITS USUAL BIAS OF LIFTING THE SFC LOW/TROF
PRBLY TOO QUICKLY TO THE EAST ON MON. THEREFORE FOLLOWED ETA FOR SFC
WNDS. SHRTWV RIDES OVR THE RIDGE TNGT AND MON...AND CRNT PLACEMENT
SHOWN WELL BY WV IMG. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST LIFT AND OVERALL DYNAMICS
ARE HEADING N OF CWA TNGT...MOVG SE ON MON. FEEL THE BEST CHCS OF
PCPN IN CWA WL BE FM BROOKINGS TO WINDOM...BUT WORTH ONLY 40 POPS.
LOWER POPS WARRANTED ELSEWHERE. BOTH MDLS SHOW GOOD THTE RIDGING...
GOOD DIR SHEAR AND EXCELLENT 850MB WAA THRU NE QUAD OF SD. ETA ALSO
BUILDS GOOD CAPES BACK IN TNGT AND MON. BUT...A TRIGGER IN THE LOW
LVLS IS VERY LACKING AS WELL AS MSTR. THE LLVL CONV/UPR LVL DIV IS
DISORGANIZED. THE KEY IS THE 850MB WND PROGS. THESE WNDS ARE SLOW TO
COME ARND WITH LARGE 850MB TO THE SE. BY THE TIME THEY DO...THE
SYSTEM IS ON TOP OF CWA...THEN THE LLVL JET TURNS TO THE WEST EARLY
MON. NOT A GOOD SETUP FOR RAIN. IN FACT...THE WAA REALLY WEAKENS ON
MON AS THE LOW AND MID LVL HEAT BALANCES OUT...AND CONDITIONS COULD
GET QUITE WARM OVR THE WEST. LOOK FOR WELL MIXED CONDITIONS ON MON
SO WARMED THINGS UP QUITE A BIT. BOTTOM LINE...THIS SYSTEM IS COMING
THRU THE CWA ABOUT 24 HRS TOO SOON FOR DECENT RAINFALL.
.FSD...NONE
FUHS
FXUS63 KABR 080740 sd
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1055 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 1999
THE 12Z RUC MODEL SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN KY/TN THAT
MOVES OVER FAR NORTHWEST GA BY MID AFTERNOON. THE SHORT WAVE AND
IMPORT OF MOISTURE WITH IT WILL CAUSE AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...SKY CONDITION IN FAR
NORTHWEST GA WILL BE SHOWN AS PARTLY SUNNY AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASED
TO 50 PERCENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ZONES OVER THE FAR
SOUTH WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED FOR HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 THIS AFTERNOON.
ATL...HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST-CENTRAL GA.
SCHAUB
FXUS72 KFFC 080705 ga
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
937 AM SUN AUG 8 1999
LOW CLDS AND BRIEF DRZL ACRS SRN LWR MI ATTM ALG WITH LK EFFECT
CLDS ALG THE LONG AXIS OF LM. BREAK IN LOW CLDS ACRS CNTRL LWR MI
NE TWD SAGINAW BAY AND THIS DEPICTED WELL BY RUC-3 RH FIELDS BLO
925MB.
RUC INDCS DRYING BY 21Z ACRS AREA XCPT FOR LK EFFECT CLDS FAR NRN
IND WHICH SHD STAY MAINLY ALG AND W OF LAPORTE/PORTER COUNTY LINE.
DRIZZLE IN AREA OF WEAK UVV WHICH ALSO...ACCORDING TO RUC...
DIMINISHES BY 15Z. MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLDS THIS AFTN AS
MIXING/DRYING AT LOW LEVELS TAKES PLACE...BUT SC FILLING IN
RAPIDLY WHERE ANY HEATING OCCURS.
WILL UPDATE IND/MI ZONES FOR JUST MINOR CHANGES. FCST TEMPS LOOK
GOOD.
.IWX...NONE.
JAH
FXUS73 KIND 080756 in
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
1010 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 1999
MAIN FRONT BACK IN NW PA AND DROPPING S. TIMING WOULD PUT IT INTO
AREA DURG LATE AFTN. HAVE A LEE TROF DEVELOPING FARTHER SE AND RUC
DEVELOPS THIS OVR ERN PART FA. THIS WOULD CORRESPOND WITH THERE MORE
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR IS NOW WITH 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS E OF MOST OF AREA
AND MAINLY OVR DELMARVA. NOTICED DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN DROPPING SOME
AT IAD AND DCA BUT THESE SHD RECOVER SOME EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS HAVE
TURNED MORE TO W AND ARE ADVECTING IN SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR.
WL CONTINUE 50 POPS WITH CHC OF SHWRS AND TSTMS. BELIEVE BEST RISK
FOR TSTMS WL BE OVR SE PART OF FA CLOSER TO BETTER INSTABILITY. WL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW MUCH DEVELOPS WITH THE FNT AS CLDS
LIMITING ANY HEATING WITH THE FNT AND MODELS PUSH MAIN VORT OUT
AHEAD OF FNT.
MODEL SOUNDINGS OVR SE PART OF AREA GIVE CAPES TO 1500-2000. LOOKED
AT IAD SOUNDING AND WITH TEMPS NEAR 90 STILL HAD A NEG AREA AT LOW
END OF SOUNDING AND CAPES WERE ONLY ARND 1100. OVR SE PART OF AREA
WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND DECENT LLJ COULD SEE SOME TSTMS PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BUT LOOK TO WARM FOR HAIL.
BASIC FCST REMAINS AS IS WL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS
SOME WITH CLDS.
.LWX...NONE.
JAB
FXUS61 KLWX 080712 md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1030 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 1999
MAIN QUESTION FOR LATE AM UPDATE IS WHETHER POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.
MODERATELY MOIST BUT INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL NC
AT THIS TIME. SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM RZZ-BUY-CLT. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS DEPICTS WEAK CAA OCCURRING IN THE MID LAYERS. BOTH RUC AND
MESO-ETA PROJECT BEST LAPSE RATES FROM 1000-850 & 850-700
COINCIDING ACROSS EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN BY 21Z WITH
PROJECTED CAPES AOA 2500 J/KG. WITH THESE PARAMETERS AND BOUNDARY IN
PLACE...THREAT OF CONVECTION LOOKS HIGHER THAN CURRENT NO POP/SLIGHT
CHC POP FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
PRESENTLY...PLAN TO SPLIT EXTREME NE PIED/NRN COASTAL PLAIN FROM
REMAINDER OF PIEDMONT AND GO WITH A 40% POP FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR AREAS AROUND RDU AND FAY...WILL ADJUST POP TO 30%. WILL ISSUE
SPS HIGHLIGHTING THUNDERSTORM THREAT BEFORE 15Z.
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON TEMPERATURES. PLAN
TO MAKE NO CHANGES TO AREAL EXTENT OF HEAT ADVISORY.
.RAH...HEAT ADVISORY NE PIEDMONT...NE PLAINS...AND SANDHILLS.
WSS
FXUS62 KILM 081402 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1000 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 1999
VIS IMG AND SFC OBS CONTINUE TO SHOW DISSIPATION OF LGT FOG ACRS
EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWFA. KFLO VIS IMPROVED TO 8SM FROM
3 SM OVR PAST 2 HRS. STEAM RM CONDITIONS EXISTING EARLY ON WITH SFC
DWPTS 75 TO 79 ACRS THE CENT AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS.
THIS LLVL MOIST COMBINED WITH FCST HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WILL EASILY
PUT US INTO HEAT ADV CRITERIA TODAY.
12Z RAPID UPDATE CYCLE SHOWING WEAK S/W WITH 2 VORT CENTERS EXPECTED
AROUND 18Z AND 21Z THIS AFTN. DESPITE 4 DEGREE CAP IN PLACE...WILL
UPDATE FIRST PERIOD ZONES TO REFLECT ISOLATED TSRA ACTIVITY THROUGH
OUT AFTN AS OPPPSED TO LATE AFTN. WILL ALSO DELETE MENTION OF
INCREASING WIND SINCE SW 10+ MPH COMMON ACRS CWFA ATTM.
CWF...WILL REMOVE POSSIBLE SCA ADV CONDITIONS TO BE MET LATE SUN
INTO MON AS RUC KEEPS SW SFC FLOW < 25 KTS THROUGH NEXT 22 HRS.
.ILM...HEAT ADVISORY
NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046.
JFP
FXUS62 KMHX 081343 nc
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
938 AM CDT SUN AUG 8 1999
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW AREA OF CONVECTION FIRING OVER NE
MT AND NW ND THIS AM IN AREA OF SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND 850 TO 500
Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE. WHILE 12Z RUC TAKES THIS AREA INTO SE
SASKATCHEWAN BY 0Z...IT BRINGS A SECONDARY AREA OF Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
INTO ERN ND BY THEN. WHILE SFC LI/S INDICATE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN
STABLE OVER ALL THE FA...LI/S AT 150 M AGL DROP TO ZERO OVER THE FAR
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA BY 0Z AS WAA DEVELOPS THERE. CONSIDERING
TRACK OF CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THIS SUGGESTS SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL
UPDATE ZFP ACCORDINGLY.
LAMP GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S ALL
AREAS...BUT THIS WARMING TOO AGRESSIVE EAST OF RRV AS BETTER WAA WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THAT AREA UNTIL LATE. WILL LEAVE TEMPS ALONE AS
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FILTER OUT
SOME SUNSHINE TODAY.
TURNER
FXUS63 KBIS 080835 nd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
943 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 1999
SFC FRONT STILL WELL NORTH IN THE OHIO AND MID MISS VALLEY AT 13Z.
RADAR AND SATL SHOW AN AREA OF CONVECTION IN KY AND TN ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS FORECAST BY 09Z RUC AND OTHER MODELS TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST TODAY.
SO MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTN IS THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY.
CONVECTION IN TN HAS LAID OUT A NICE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM JUST EAST
OF BNA...ARCING SOUTH AND WEST INTO NRN AL AND MS. THE OUTFLOW
APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST IN NRN MS AND QUITE A BIT WEAKER IN C/ERN
TN. SFC FRONT TO MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS SOUTH TODAY...SO ONLY
LOW-LEVEL FORCING TO GET CONVECTION GOING WILL BE THE INTERACTION OF
WEAK OUTFLOW PRESSING EAST INTO WRN MTNS THIS AFTN AND INCREASED
MOISTURE FLOW INTO REGION.
ELSEWHERE...A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN DWPTS EXISTS IN THE FOOTHILLS ATTM
(64 AT HKY...66 AT GSP...67 AT AND). CLT HAS A 75 DWPT. EXPECT LEE
TROUGH TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTN IN THE MEAN WESTERLY FLOW.
MOISTURE SHOULD POOL ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. MID-LEVEL TEMPS TO REMAIN
RATHER WARM...SO DON'T EXPECT TO HAVE ANY STORMS GET OUT OF HAND.
PLAN TO KEEP POPS AS CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH HIGHEST CHC IN WRN
MTNS...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC IN THE PIEDMONT. TEMPS LOOK IN LINE AS
WELL. MAY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY CONDITION.
.GSP...NONE.
MOYER
FXUS62 KCHS 081334 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1020 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 1999
KOHX-88D DEPICTED EARLY MORNING CONVECTION STRENGTHENING A LITTLE
NEAR THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU....WHERE THE HIGHEST CAPE AND
LI VALUES WERE (~1400 AND -3, RESPECTIVELY). LOOKING OVER THE LATEST
MODEL DATA...THE 12Z RUC APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE MAGNITUDE AND
SHAPE OF THE UPSTREAM VORT MAX MORE REALISTICALLY IN THE TROUGH
AXIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE THE MESO-ETA TENDS TO SHEAR
IT OUT IN TIME.
12Z RUC SOUNDING FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE FA WILL BECOME
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND FEEL THAT CLOUD FEEDBACK ON
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE THIS CONSERVATIVE. HOWEVER...AS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH...LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND THETA-E RIDGING SHOULD ALSO HELP THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY 09/00Z IN THE NORTHERN FA.
IN A AFTERNOON ZONE UPDATE...PLAN TO KEEP HIGHS AND POPS THE SAME...
AND WILL ADJUST SKY CONDITIONS TO CLOUDY NORTH AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SOUTH.
.MRX...NONE.
DM
FXUS64 KMEG 080817 tn
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 1999
SEA BREEZE HAS SET UP AS FAR AS MELBOURNE AND COCOA. SUSPECT IT WILL
TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO SET UP FROM THE CAPE TO DAYTONA BEACH.
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STILL AROUND A VERO BEACH TO TAMPA LINE.
FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS AS SHORT RANGE MODELS DEPICT A WEAK IMPULSE
BETWEEN 700 AND 500MB MOVING ACROSS THE AREA PAST MIDNIGHT. RUC
PICKS ON THIS FEATURE AS PLACEMENT OF EXISTING CLOUDS AND STORMS IN
THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO IS PRETTY GOOD. PREFER 30 POPS ACROSS
THE CWA AS VORTICITY IS ADVECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
SFC RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE BACK S OF FCST AREA ON MON AND AT LEAST THRU
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WEAK VORT AXIS ALONG THE PANHANDLE ATTM GETS
REINFORCED TOMORROW AND ON TUE AS SHORT WAV ROTATES THRU THE BASE OF
BROAD EAST COAST MID LEVEL TROF. RESULT IS TAIL OF ELONGATED VORT
AXIS ACROSS SOME PART OF THE FCST AREA FROM LATE TMRW INTO MID WEEK.
MDLS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN HOW THEY HANDLE FEATURE BUT ALL GUID DEPICTS
THE SYSTEM WELL. THE ETA SHOWS SHRT WV MOVING THRU KY A BIT
STRONGER THAN THE OTHER TWO AND SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING HOW
FEATURE SHOWS IN WATER VAP IMG THIS AFTN. THE ETA MAY BE OVERDONE IN
THE AMT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS WAVE HOWEVER...CONSIDERING DRYING
TREND MOVING IN FM S. THE NGM ON THE OTHER HAND IS FASTER W/ FEATURE
AND PUSHES IT FARTHER S. WL FOLLOW MORE IN LINE W/ ETA. POPS SHUD BE
NEAR OR JST ABV CLIMO FOR NRN AREAS TMRW W/ APPROACH OF VORT AXIS LT
IN DAY. WL GO BLO GUID/CLIMO S PART FOR MON. PROXIMITY TO
WEAKENING/STALLING VRT AXIS ON TUE WL RESULT IN ABV CLIMO POPS.
STEERING FLOW W/ BE OUT OF THE SW THRU THE PD AND WL KEEP CHC OF EVE
ACTVTY ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE...SFC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES S OF WATERS TMRW. WHILE PRES GRAD
INCREASES ESP OVER N WATERS TMRW AND TUE SHUD BE BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHT
LEVELS. ETA/AVN WND FIELD NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF PRES GRAD ESP IN LATER
PDS.
PRELIM...
DAB TT 074/095 074/093 075 05453
MCO BT 075/095 074/093 074 05343
MLB BT 074/094 074/093 075 05332=
.MLB...NONE.
WIMMER/BLOTTMAN
FXUS62 KTBW 081833 fl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
328 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 1999
COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF MICHIGAN WITH DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SPILLING
SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S WILL SLOWLY REPLACE AN AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S TONIGHT. MAY BE DIFFICULT TO GET RID OF SOME OF
THE LOW CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HANGS ON
IN EARNEST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. 15Z RUC...AND EVEN THE 12Z
ETA...SHOW GOOD 950 MB RH HANGING ON AT LEAST THROUGH 06Z OVER
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...POSSIBLY A LITTLE LONGER THAN THAT OVER THE
THUMB COURTESY OF THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE HURON. DEW POINT
DEPRESSION NEAR THE BASE OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INCREASES
OVERNIGHT ON MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH SOME OF
THE STRATOCU. WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS...THOUGH...WITH SCT TO BKN
CLOUDS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ALONG A BAND NORTH OF A PHN TO CARO
LINE...AND PLAN TO CARRY MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE THUMB FOR THE
EVENING. WILL LOOK AT LAST SATELLITE IMAGE BEFORE GOING TO PRESS.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN...FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS ESPECIALLY WITH
SUNSET...AND THE LIGHT WINDS WITH SOME CLEARING SHOULD ALLOW MINS TO
REACH FWC/FAN MOS...WHICH ARE RATHER CHILLY. SOME READINGS CLOSE TO
45 ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED COOL SPOTS BY MORNING.
WEAK UPPER WAVE IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY
OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AS PER THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGES. LEAD UPPER WAVE PROGGED TO PROVIDE FOR
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THE THUMB WHERE MID LEVEL RH VALUES ARE
HIGHEST. EXPECT ANY BKN AC TO LAST AN HOUR OR SO IN ANY ONE
SPOT...WITH MAIN THRUST OF INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE
OF THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WHICH THE NGM HAS PROGGED INVOF DLH BY 00Z
TUESDAY...AND THE ETA HAS PROGGED NEAR IWD. THIS UPPER WAVE MOVES
OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE FRONT SLOSHES BACK
ACROSS THE AREA.
DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT EVIDENT ON THE 300K SURFACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS FALL QUICKLY OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THE
THUMB. DRY AIR AOB 850MB HOLDS IN PLACE BEYOND 06Z TUESDAY ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER...BUT UVV AND 850 MB CONVERGENCE STRONG
ENOUGH ON BOTH THE NGM AND ETA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TO MENTION A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EVEN FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST. BEST VERTICAL MOTION
AND DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THE
THUMB...AND DESPITE THE NEARLY NON-EXISTANT QPF ON THE ETA PLAN TO
FORECAST LIKELY POPS IN MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NGM...WHICH SHOWS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NEAR 12Z...AGREE WITH THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK KEEPING
GENERAL THUNDER OUT OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DUE TO THE STABILITY ON
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. NEGATIVE LIS STAY JUST WEST OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THROUGH 12Z. FIGURE A RUMBLE AT BEST...AND WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THE MOMENT.
SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOSH BACK SOUTH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. AFTER A CLOUDY START...BOTH THE NGM
AND ETA FORECAST MID LEVEL DRYING JUST WEST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AT
12Z TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. SUNSHINE...AND CONTINUED HIGH 850MB THETAE AIR...
SHOULD CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT TO MENTION A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FORECAST CLOSE TO THE FWC THROUGHOUT
THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD GIVEN THE AGREEMENT WITH THE FAN.
EUROPEAN MODELS ARE FASTER THAN THE MRF WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESS
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK. HOWEVER...THE MRF IS A BIT
MORE IN LINE WITH THE AVN...WHICH HAS THE LOW BASICALLY OVER THE
STATE AT 00Z WEDNESDAY AND JUST EAST AT 12Z WEDNESDAY. WILL DRY
THINGS OUT WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN...THOUGH
THERE MAY BE A ROGUE SHOWER OR TWO WEDNESDAY IN CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
SURFACE LOW. SHOULD BE A COOL NIGHT OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS UPON US.
UPPER RIDGING PROGGED TO MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON THE EXTENDED
MODELS FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
MRF AND THE UKMET IN TERMS OF THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC COAST BY FRIDAY. THE UKMET IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST
WITH THE TROUGH...AND ITS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMPLITUDE FLOW RESULTS IN
A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE MRF WITH REGARD TO THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD AFFECT OUR WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS MORE LIKE THE MRF WITH THE UPPER PATTERN BUT
STILL A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW.
MCS DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE WEST OF MI THURSDAY IN MOIST
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WITH FAST 850MB WINDS...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY
WEST OF MI FOLLOWING THE THICKNESS PATTERN. HOWEVER...FRIDAY
COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY IF THE FASTER MRF VERIFIES. WARM FRONT
WOULD RETURN LATE FRIDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY ON THE
MRF. WITH SOME MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES WILL NOT MODIFY TREND OF
EXTENDED FORECAST AND MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGE AND WARMING OF 700MB TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY SUNDAY...WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES.
.DTX...NONE.
DJF
FXUS63 KGRR 081900 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 8 1999
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR UPDATE ARE CLOUDS AND TEMPS.
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE EFFECT CU BANDS PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
ENTIRE UP. 12Z RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOWEST 100MB LAYER
DRYING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. 1000-900MB DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
REACH ABOUT 6 OR 7 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE QUITE
STABLE...SO SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED. LAMP GUIDANCE FOLLOWS THIS TREND
AS WELL...TRYING TO CLEAR SKIES OVER THE UP EARLY AFTERNOON IN WEST
AND LATER IN THE DAY CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. I THINK MOSTLY
SUNNY WORDING IS TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON...SO WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY MOST AREAS...ASSUMING
CLOUDS WILL INDEED DIMINISH. WINDS WILL DECREASE...ESPECIALLY
WESTERN SECTIONS...AS GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH SFC HIGH EDGING INTO FA
FROM THE NW. FORECAST TEMPS A BIT LOW IN SOME LOCATIONS. ISQ ALREADY
ABOVE FORECAST HIGH WITH 14Z TEMP OF 63. WILL BUMP TEMPS UP MOST
LOCATIONS.
.MQT...NONE.
JS
FXUS63 KDTX 081411 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
150 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 1999
FOCUS FOR FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND HIGH TEMPS MON/TUE.
WHILE NGM/AVN DEPICT THE BEST CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS MODEL
RUN...ETA VERIFYING QUITE WELL THE STRENGTH/POSITION OF CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED VORT CENTER NNE OF BNA AT 17Z. HOWEVER BELIEVE STRENGTH OF
VORT CENTER ON ETA TOO STRING BY 12Z/MON AND PREFER WEAKER SOLUTION
OF AVN/NGM. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY LIEING ACROSS EASTERN PIEDMONT SHOULD SUPPORT SCT
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS CWA. APPEARS CONVECTION WILL START INITIALLY S-E OF
RDU IN HIGH THETA-E AIR AND WEAK CONVERGENCE. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHOULD FIRE CONVECTION IN THE FOOTHILLS OF NC BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z .
THIS AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD CROSS WESTERN/MIDDLE SECTIONS OF CWA
DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS. 15Z RUC LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS NOW POINT TOWARD WESTERN SECTIONS OF CWA OF
SEEING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...PLAN TO ADVERTISE POPS AS 60% EXTREME WEST TO 40% SE CORNER.
ETA HOLDS ONTO DYNAMICS A LITTLE LONGER THAN NGM/AVN AT 12Z MON
WHILE NGM HOLDS ONTO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 6 HOURS LONGER THAN ETA.
PLAN TO MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST OF SLIGHT/SMALL CHC IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF CWA MON AM.
TIMING OF DEPARTING CLOUD COVER CRUCIAL TO TEMP FORECAST MON. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS WITH FULL SUN SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS MON AFTERNOON NEAR
90/LOWER 90S. INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER MOST
OF CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING/MID-DAY HOURS...DELAYING HEATING A BIT.
AT THIS TIME PLAN ON HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH
SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS.
AS FAR AS TUE...MOS TEMPS WERE 4-6 DEGREES TOO COOL WITH MOST RECENT
"COOLER AIR" EPISODE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORT NR 90 OVER RDU/FAY
AREAS WITH FULL SUN. PLAN TO ADJUST TUE TEMPS IN THIS DIRECTION.
RDU 69/87/63/90 5200 GSO 68/85/63/87 6100
.RAH...NONE.
WSS
FXUS62 KMHX 081743 nc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
201 PM EDT SUN AUG 8 1999
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC SWIRL ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT SHORTWAVE IN N
CENT TN ATTM. SHOWERS AND TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NOW AS FAR SOUTH
AS N GA IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL MOIST CONVERGENCE/ADVECTION
AND DPVA AHEAD OF VORT CENTER. ALL MODELS INCLUDING LATEST RUC SHOW
THIS VORT CENTER CROSSING THE CWA TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES. I PREFER THE STRONGER AND FASTER ETA/RUC
SINCE IT INITIALIZED BETTER WITH THE APPARENT STRENGTH AND LOCATION
THIS MORNING. WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND ABOUT 30 KTS OF SPEED SHEAR
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE WAVE...SO POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS DOES EXIST.
ALTHOUGH BEST WIND FIELDS WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN SECTIONS...STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS UPSTATE AND CLT AREA COULD LEND TO ISOLATED
SEVERE THERE AS WELL.
THE ONE CONCERN I HAVE FOR THE FORMATION OF CONVECTION EAST OF THE
MTNS IS THE CURRENT LOW 60 DWPTS. HOWEVER...DWPTS HAVE REBOUNDED TO
AT OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES ACROSS N GA IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. I WOULD
EXPECT THIS MOIST ADVECTION TO CONTINUE EAST AS UPPER FORCING WITH
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. A NICE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE COUPLET SETS UP OVER AREA AROUND 00Z. MAIN LEE TROUGH HAS
MOVED MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED AND WILL NOT PLAY A ROLE IN
OUR AREAS WEATHER.
ON ITS CURRENT PACE...VORT CENTER WILL BE EAST OF MTNS AROUND 00Z.
SO WILL GO WITH CAT POPS THIS EVENING IN THE MTNS AND LIKELY
ELSEWHERE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AIRMASS DRIES RAPIDLY IN THE WAKE OF
SHORTWAVE AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.
FOR MONDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS CWA...WITH
BEST PUSH IN THE CENT/ERN CAROLINAS. THE FRONT APPEARS TO STALL OUT
IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FASHION...PARALLEL TO NW FLOW. AREAS IN
NE GA AND SRN UPSTATE MAY NEVER FEEL THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR BEHIND
THIS FRONT. TEMPS APPEAR TO COOL A CAT OR TWO BEHIND FRONT WITH
THICKNESSES DROPPING SOME. BUT...NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY AIR MASS
WILL STILL YIELD TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 THROUGH TUESDAY.
IN THE EXTENDED...LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF CWA AND RIDGE
BUILDING EAST. AREA SHOULD BE UNDER GOOD SUBSIDENCE. COLD
FRONT/TROUGH PASSAGE WED NIGHT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A HIGH ENOUGH CHC OF RAIN TO MENTION IN FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
AVL 62/84/59/84 3000
CLT 69/89/65/87 6000
GSP 69/90/66/89 6000
.GSP...NONE.
MOYER
FXUS62 KCAE 081415 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
200 PM CDT SUN AUG 8 1999
WELL...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS COLD FRONT FROM ZZV-ILN-MVN-VIH
AND THEN THE FRONT HAS A WAVE ON IT FROM A LOW BETWEEN TUL AND MKO TO
SGF AND VIH. SEVERAL HOLES IN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS HAS
ALLOWED A STRONG TEMPERATURE DISCONTINUITY ACROSS THE REGION. 18Z
RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE HAVE VORT MAX JUST EAST OF
BNA.
THIS MATCHES SPOT ON WITH WHAT THE 12Z AND 15Z RUC ADVERTISED.
HOWEVER THE MAIN VORT MAX MOVES TO BETWEEN TYS AND CHA BY 00Z WHILE
AN ELONGATED VORT MAX EXTENDS FROM DYR-COU. I EXPECT MORE ACTIVITY
TO FIRE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALONG THE ELONGATED SHORT WAVE. THE
H8 THRU H3 THICKNESS WILL MOVE THE NEW ACTIVITY MORE E-SE THAN THIS
MORNINGS S-SE. BY 00Z PROGGED LIS WILL BE -4 AND FRONT WILL BE
JUST TO THE NORTH OF BNA.
FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE PERIOD...ZONE ALIGNMENT FOR POPS...
BY 00Z PROGGED LIS WILL BE -4 TO -5 AND FRONT WILL BE
JUST TO THE NORTH OF BNA. WITH FORCING PRESENT FROM SFC-H4 AND DEW
POINTS IN THE LOW 70S EXPECT SCT STORMS TO FIRE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT EARLY. WITH PANDEMIC DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE MOVING INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT...WILL TRY TO SHUT OFF THE PRECIP FROM THE N TO THE
S AND USE A THIS EVENING GROUP IN MOST ZONE GROUPS TO SHUT OFF THE
RAIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT FOR ALL EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHERN TIER ZONES.
TEMPS WILL BE TRICK TONIGHT AS CLOUD COVER AND HOW MUCH TRUE
CLEARING FILTERS INTO THE CWA. A COUPLE OF IL LOCATIONS LAST
NIGHT HAD SCT-BKN STRATUS ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS ADVERTISING
MASSIVE DRYING FROM H2-H800. BOTH ETA AND NGM HAVE 70-80
MOISTURE FROM H925-H850. SO LOOKS LIKE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS
ON MONDAY. WILL WORD PARTLY CLOUDY INSTEAD OF CLEARING TONIGHT IN
THE ZONES. HOWEVER WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO PREVIOUS ZONES.
WITH TONIGHTS LOWS DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHTS ARE DEPENDENT
ON RADITIONAL COOLING. 1000-850 THICKNESS DROP FROM 1440M TO
1405M. WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE ON MONDAY NIGHT AT MOST LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY ON THE PLATEAU.
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...
BNA BU 071/088 064/090 30/0 0/0
CSV BU 066/082 057/085 30/0 0/0
.BNA...NONE
JDG
FXUS64 KMRX 081851 tn