000 FXUS63 KDLH 162143 AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 343 PM CST MON FEB 16 2009 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NE MN...EXTENDING SW THROUGH NC MN...AND INTO SE NO DAK. IN THE WARM SECTOR...A GUSTY SFC WIND AND STRONG WAA/THETA-E ADV TODAY ALLOWED FOR TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE UPR 20S IN THE IRON RANGE/ARROWHEAD TO MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS CEN MN/WIS. DEW PTS REACHED WELL INTO THE TEENS AND A FEW 20S. INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ACCOUNT FOR WARMER AIR IN PLACE...MAINLY OVER SRN HALF OF FA WHERE STRONGER WAA PERSISTS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT SHSN IN THE NRN ZONES OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2 IN NE MN. AROUND AN INCH OF NEW IS EXPECTED IN THIS REGION WITH ISOLD SHSN OR FLURRIES SOUTH OF HWY 2. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MN ARROWHEAD WHERE A SRLY WIND COMPONENT WILL PROVIDE MINIMAL ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC LIFT. A STRONG SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN IN WV IMAGERY TRACKING S OVER SAK CANADA...WILL ROTATE AROUND THE H50 HUDSON BAY LOW...DIVING INTO THE UPPER PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASED FORCING AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND ARCTIC AIR BEHIND IT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER FGEN ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR 2 OF SN ACCUM TO THE BORDERLAND DURING THE DAY TUES. INCREASED POPS IN NRN THIRD OF CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. FOCUS TURNS TO THE LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL...MAINLY LATE TUES THROUGH WED. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT AND BACK OUT OF THE E/NE BY TUESDAY AFTRN. INCREASED POPS FOR ZONES ADJACENT TO LK SUPERIOR FOR THIS TIME. ATTM...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY THROUGH WED...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED. MEANWHILE...A WELL ORGANIZED LOW PASSES TO THE OF THE FA AND TRIES TO PHASE WITH THE UPR LVL LOW THAT DROPS S FROM CANADA AND CENTERS OVER THE WRN GRT LKS REGION BY 00Z THURS. .EXTENDED...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP UP FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...GENERATING STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. THE MAIN FOCUS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN...WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT COMING BEHIND A CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM DROPPING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO MODERATE ONCE AGAIN BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .AVIATION...MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN KHIB...WITH VFR CLOUD HEIGHTS GIVING WAY TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA...FROM THE KBRD AREA...EASTWARD TO KDLH AND KHYR...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TONIGHT. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTHWARD AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. && POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 18 31 17 17 / 40 40 60 50 INL 2 18 -6 1 / 30 70 40 20 BRD 18 33 11 12 / 20 20 40 30 HYR 22 32 20 22 / 10 20 60 60 ASX 21 31 19 19 / 30 30 60 70 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. $$ GRANING/DAP