FXUS63 KDLH 051005
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
330 AM CDT THU AUG 5 2004

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERNS ARE ON TEMPS...AS LOWS THIS EVENING
ACROSS NRN MINNESOTA MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED ALL-TIME RECORDS FOR THIS
DATE.  ISOLATED AREAS WITH FROST ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.

BUILDING UL RIDGE DOMINATES CENTRAL CANADA AND N CNTRL US WITH
DOWNSTREAM 75KT MAX WIND BAND HEADING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHLAND.
CURRENT TREND WITH RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER
AIR OUR WAY TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  STG 1027MB SFC HIGH CENTERED
OVR SRN MANITOBA...PROVIDING A LGT NELY DRIFT TO AREA SFC WINDS.
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL START TO SLOWLY DRIFT
SOUTHEAST ACRS ERN WISCONSIN.  THIS WILL OPEN US UP TO A RETURN
SLY SEMI-MOIST FLOW FROM CENTRAL PLAINS AND GULF. INDICIES POINT TO
AN AXIS OF LL CONV AHD OF TRIPLE POINT OVR ERN NEBRASKA ON
SATURDAY.  H5 THERMAL TROUGHING IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THIS AREA AT THAT TIME FOR INSTABILITY ALOFT. IN ADDITION...TOTALS
TOTALS OF 49 TO 52...LIS TO -7...AND CAPES 1600 TO 1900 OVR WRN AND
CNTRL MN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALSO FAVOR CONVECTION. CURRENT TSTM
FORECASTS APPEAR ON TRACK.

MODEL PREFERENCES. FOCUS ON BEST INITIALIZATION WITH RUC AND
SHORT RANGE GFS SOLUTIONS FOR UL FEATURES WITH 00Z RPTS...WHILE
ETA AND NGM ALSO AGREE ON SFC FEATURES. LOOKING AS 00Z RAOB RPTS OVR
SRN ONTARIO AND NRN MINNESOTA...00Z ETA FORECASTS H5 S/WV TROF
ROTATING INTO MINNESOTA TOO DEEP.

EXTENDED...A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS IN STORE THIS WEEKEND AS
PART OF UL RIDGE IS FORCED EASTWARD OVR MN.  THIS WILL CAUSE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO THE UPR 70S ACRS NRN MN. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BRING MORE COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER TO THE NORTHLAND.  AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN AN UPR
LVL RIDGE ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND AN UPR LVL TROF ACRS
THE ERN USA.  THIS MEANS COOL...DRY NWLY WINDS ACRS UPR
MIDWEST WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
AUGUST.


.DLH...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.

$$

TRIPOLI