FXUS63 KDLH 192033
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
300 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2004

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FOCUS THIS EVENING IS AGAIN ON FROST FORMATION
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UL PATTERN ACRS U.S.A. BEGINNING A TREND TOWARDS MORE ZONAL AS THE
LAST IN A SERIES OF S/WVS HEADS INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM MANITOBA.
PARENT TROF AND ASSCD SFC LOW NOW EJECTING NE INTO ERN HUDSON BAY.
UL RIDGE ACRS BRITISH COLUMBIA SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN AS CI
AND CS TRACKS ARE EDGING FURTHER SOUTH THERE. 90 KT MAX AND THERMAL
TROF JUST UPSTREAM SPT S/WV. HOWEVER...THINK CLDS AND ASSCD
INSTABILITY WILL TRACK MAINLY THROUGH NRN MN WITH THE HIGH OVR S
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA.

FOR MODEL TRENDS...WILL GO WITH A BLEND BETWEEN THE MESOETA AND
GFS FOR NEAR TERM...THEN MRF AND ECMWF SOLNS FOR EXTENDED WEATHER AND
TEMPS.

AT THE SFC...A TROF STRETCHES SOUTHWEST FROM ERN MANITOBA...TO
WRN N DAKOTA. A 1021MB HIGH LIES ACROSS NEBRASKA AND S DAKOTA. FROST
IS LIKELY TONIGHT AS 12Z MESOETA FORECASTS SFC RIDGE RIGHT
OVER NRN AND CNTRL MN TONIGHT.  GRADIENT WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
FROM SFC A BIT EARLIER THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR MORE TIME
TO RADIATE OUT. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER DAY HAS PASSED WITH A DRY
ATMOSPHERE.  WILL MAKE ADVISORY VALID FROM 1AM THROUGH 6 AM FOR ALL
ZONES.

UNSEASONABLY COOL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS UPSTREAM RIDGE IS SLOW TO BREAK
DOWN. ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND ON SUNDAY SO HAVE MENTIONED TSTMS THEN. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...NORTHLAND SHOULD OPEN UP TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AS A L/WV TROF IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.A.
SO HAVE CONTINUED WITH TSTMS IN FORECAST FOR THAT TIME.

.DLH...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MN...FROST ADVY TNGT ALL ZONES.
WI...FROST ADVY TNGT ALL ZONES.

$$

LJT