WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 903 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2002 DESPITE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE (PW'S CLOSE TO 2")...DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY ALONG WITH WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS (-6C 50H)...AND LIMITED SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT KEPT AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS CONTINUES TO BE THE CASE EARLY THIS EVENING...AS DEPICTED BY 88D RETURNS WHICH ONLY SHOWS AN ISOLATED SHOWER LINGERING OVER SOUTHEASTERN PASCO COUNTY. WITH LOSS OF SFC HEATING...ONGOING CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE WANE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER WITH A SFC TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE S- CENTRAL PENINSULA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING INTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGE AXIS SAGS FURTHER SOUTH...MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG COASTAL ZONES FROM PINELLAS SOUTH WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW MAY SET UP. GIVEN THIS PLAN TO LEAVE A LOW POP MENTION (20%) IN ALONG COASTAL ZONES FROM PINELLAS SOUTH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ELSEWHERE WILL REMOVE EVENING POP WORDING INTERIOR...AND RE-WORD FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING FROM HERNANDO NORTH GIVEN EXPECTED S-SWLY STEERING FLOW. MARINE...BASED ON THE LATEST RUC/MESO-ETA DATA AND BUOY TRENDS WILL CUT BACK 15 KNOT WIND WORDING TO 10-15 KNOTS IN THE 1030 PM UPDATE. IN ADDITION WILL ADJUST PRECIP WORDING TO FIT ONGOING AND EXPECTED TRENDS OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED. TBW...NONE. MCMICHAEL fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 900 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2002 WILL UPDATE EVENING FORECAST WHEN CONVECTION WINDS DOWN AFTER SUNSET. OVERALL CONVECTION TREND HAS BEEN WINDING DOWN AS THEY MOVE W-NW...ALTHOUGH SOME ENERGY SEEN IN THE MESOETA LIFTING FROM W FL COAST TOWARD NORTHERN APALACHEE BAY. RUC ALSO HAS THIS FEATURE IN VORT PATTERN...BUT APPEARS WITH SHEAR ZONE OVER N FL IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THIS ENERGY IS ELONGATING & WEAKENING BEFORE IT GETS PULLED TO THE WEST. ATMOSPHERE OVER N FL NOT AS UNSTABLE AS LAST FEW DAYS & & LIFT FROM UPPER SYSTEM WEAKENING AS IT MOVED WEST. ALSO SEA BREEZE CONTRIBUTION WAS NEGLIGIBLE TODAY OVER FL BIG BEND...WITH ONLY A GOOD STORM OVER EASTERN PART OF FL PANHANDLE...AS IS NORMAL WITH SE FLOW. 00Z TLH SOUNDING HAD A PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.71 INCHES...LI OF -5.7...WITH S-SE FLOW. MESOETA HAS SOME LIFT DRIFTING SOUTH FROM CONVECTION COMPLEX NOW OVER NORTHERN AL & GA...& REACHING CWA OVERNIGHT. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SW GA & SE AL ZONES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK. OTHERWISE...SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS CIRCULATION IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEX...SOUTH OF PENSACOLA. MODELS TREND THE UPPER FEATURE TO NORTH THAN HAVE IT ABSORBED IN THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE SURFACE LOW DRIFTS TO THE FL PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY. LOCATION IS A BIT UNSURE WITH DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT A WET PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK & INTO THE WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP. JUST WHAT THE AREA NEEDS TO HELP WITH THE RAINFALL DEFICIENT. FIRE WEATHER...NO HEADLINES. MARINE: SCEC GOING IN MAINLY OFFSHORE LEGS...& WILL KEEP. BUOY DATA HAS 15-20 KNTS & 4-6 FT. THIS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK. .TLH... .AL...NONE. .GA...NONE. .FL...NONE. MCT fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1215 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2002 UPDATED COASTAL WATERS TO INCLUDE EXERCISE CAUTION BASED ON BUOY DATA. PREVIOUS AFDTLH FOLLOWS. .TLH... .AL...NONE. .GA...NONE. .FL...NONE. TJT ----------- 930 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2002 AS PROGGED BY MODELS...LOCAL 12Z SOUNDINGS HAVE DRIED OUT SOME... WITH 1.56" PRECIPITABLE WATER REPORTED HERE AT TLH. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER TAMPA WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO SE USA. RESULT IS UPPER CONFLUENCE AND APPARENT SUBSIDENCE OVER N FL. AS NOTED IN EARLIER AFDTLH...MODELS PICK UP ON THIS POCKET OF DRIER AIR...SO QUESTION IS WHETHER IT WILL STIFLE E COAST SEABREEZE (ECSB) CONVECTION. SELY FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ALSO SEEMS A LITTLE WEAKER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND THIS IS PROGGED BY RUC TO CONTINUE. THUS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE ECSB WILL BE LESS OF A PLAYER TODAY. HOWEVER...DO NOT PLAN TO LOWER POPS ANY MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY DID. MARINE: NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED. THERE WAS A CONCERN ABOUT SWELLS AND POSSIBLE RIP CURRENTS AFFECTING OUR BEACHES. LATEST BUOY DATA SUGGEST SWELL HEIGHTS ARE NOT INCREASING...SO RIP CURRENT THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MINOR CATEGORY. EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR WIND ADJUSTMENTS...NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST. .TLH... .AL...NONE. .GA...NONE. .FL...NONE. TJT fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 930 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2002 AS PROGGED BY MODELS...LOCAL 12Z SOUNDINGS HAVE DRIED OUT SOME... WITH 1.56" PRECIPITABLE WATER REPORTED HERE AT TLH. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER TAMPA WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO SE USA. RESULT IS UPPER CONFLUENCE AND APPARENT SUBSIDENCE OVER N FL. AS NOTED IN EARLIER AFDTLH...MODELS PICK UP ON THIS POCKET OF DRIER AIR...SO QUESTION IS WHETHER IT WILL STIFLE E COAST SEABREEZE (ECSB) CONVECTION. SELY FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ALSO SEEMS A LITTLE WEAKER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND THIS IS PROGGED BY RUC TO CONTINUE. THUS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE ECSB WILL BE LESS OF A PLAYER TODAY. HOWEVER...DO NOT PLAN TO LOWER POPS ANY MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS SHIFT ALREADY DID. MARINE: NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED. THERE WAS A CONCERN ABOUT SWELLS AND POSSIBLE RIP CURRENTS AFFECTING OUR BEACHES. LATEST BUOY DATA SUGGEST SWELL HEIGHTS ARE NOT INCREASING...SO RIP CURRENT THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MINOR CATEGORY. EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR WIND ADJUSTMENTS...NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST. .TLH... .AL...NONE. .GA...NONE. .FL...NONE. TJT fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 820 PM MDT WED JUL 10 2002 EVERYTHING WAS BEHAVING ITSELF...UNTIL THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED INTO THE AREA. RUC HAD A GREAT HANDLE ON THE TSRA ACTIVITY...CONFINING IT TO AREAS ALONG THE FRONT AND WITHIN THE 700 THTE-E AXIS. STRONGEST ACTIVITY WAS ALSO CONFINED WITHIN THE STRONGEST 700-500 OMEGA FIELDS. FORECAST WAS TO HAVE THE ACTIVITY OVER LINCOLN COUNTY MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH ITS DOING BUT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FIRED UP SOME STORMS OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF KIT CARSON AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF COLORADO. UPDATED AFTERNOON PACKAGE TO INCLUDE SOME STORMS THROUGH EVENING AND INCREASE THE CLOUDS DUE TO CIRRUS BLOWOFF. AS WAS THE CASE THIS MORNING...CIRRUS SHOULD THIN OUT TOWARD MORNING. .GLD...NONE. DDT ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 930 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2002 ...UPDATED FOR HIGH CLOUD TRENDS... CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CWA AT 900 PM. SOUNDING FROM DTX AND RUC AND LAPS SOUNDING SUGGEST BASE OF THE MOISTURE IS NEAR 20000 FT. IR AND WV SHOW THE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH AND THIN WITH TIME. THEY ARE BEING HELPED BY THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 100 KNOT 300 MB JET OVER EASTERN NY. OVERNIGHT... AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SRN MN CONTINUES TO ALSO SINK SOUTH SOUTHEAST WITH TIME... MORE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST FROM WI INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN WHILE THEY CONTINUE TO THIN. AS THAT IS GOING ON... THE DEPTH OF THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WITH HEIGHT WILL INCREASE. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE DEPTH WILL HAVE INCREASED FROM 14000 FT AT 00Z TO NEAR 25000 FT. ALL THAT DRY AIR COMING IN FROM THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THE CLOUDS FROM EAST TO WEST. SO... SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. OVER THE NORTHWEST CWA... BKN HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME SCATTERED BY 12Z TO 15Z. THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SEE THE THICKNESS CLOUDS THE LONGEST. AS A RESULT... I HAVE UPDATED TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA BUT WENT WITH THE CLEARING TREND OVER THE NE CWA. GOING TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS FINE. .GRR...NONE. WDM mi SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1055 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2002 CIRRUS FROM SYSTEM OVER WISONSIN AND MINNESOTA BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER INTO UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW. RUC AND NEW NGM SHOW 300MB RH OF 90+ SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOWER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THICKER CIRRUS TOWARD EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS ON TRACK. WILL UPDATE FOR THE DETROIT GROUP TO REMOVE THIS MORNING WORDING AND ADD MOSTLY SUNNY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DRC mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 637 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2002 UPDATED WORKZONES AVAIABLE. .DISC...2NDRY COLD FRONT HAS ALL BUT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION. JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS BUT THESE ARE DIEING. FIRST VSB SAT PIX SHOWS CLOUDS ERODING AWAY. WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE MENTION OF SHOWERS OR FOG IN THE EARLY PERIOD. .HYDROLOGICAL STATUS...NONE. NO PCPN EXPECTED THROUGH F48. .ALY...NONE. HWJIV _____________________________________________________________________ PREVIOUS AFD WORKZONES OUT. .DISC...TODAY IS THE 13TH ANNIVERSARY OF A MAJOR TORNADO OUTBREAK THAT PRODUCED F4 SCHOHARIE CTY TORNADO. NOTHING LIKE THAT TODAY. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS IS STILL SLOWLY WORKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON/S BAY REGION OF CANADA. A BATCH OF NUISANCE SHOWERS ARE STILL FOUND THE MOHAWK VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH 2DNRY PUSH OF COOL AIR. ONLY THE RUC HAS HINT OF A CLUE WITH THESE SHOWERS. SO FAR...HAVE BEEN HANDLING THEM WITH NOWCASTS. IF THEY ARE STILL AROUND DURING THE NEXT HOUR WILL HAVE TO ADD AN EARLY MORNING PERIOD. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE GONE BY SUNRISE (OR AT THE VERY LATEST 12Z). WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CAA...DROPPING H8 TEMPS FROM 14-7C BY THIS AFTERNOON...STEEPING THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATE...STILL BELIEVE A GOOD DEAL OF CU/SC WILL FORM DESPITE SINKING AIR. HOWEVER...LITTLE IF ANYTHING EXPECTED TO FALL OUT OF THEM (MAYBE SOME SPITS OVR THE MOUNTAINS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN ZONES). GOOD GUSTY BREEZE WILL KICK IN LATER TODAY AS WELL. H8 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO FALL STILL FURTHER OVN...DOWN TO AS LOW AS 2C WHICH IS NEARLY UNHEARD OF THIS TIME OF YEAR! EVEN WITH A GRADIENT...TEMPS LOOK TO FALL NEAR RECORD TERRITORY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY EVEN AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. KALB/S RECORD FOR TONIGHT IS 48 SET BACK IN 1986 AND ON FRI NIGHT IS 44 SET IN 1978. ALL THE MODELS DO INDICATE A SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS VIRTUALLY LACKING...AND WAVE IS COMING THROUGH AN ANTICYLONIC FLOW. BOTH FACTORS ALONG WITH NO INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS ONE DRY...WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS. THE BIG WX CONCERN IS WHETHER OR NOT THE SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON THU. FROM WHAT WE HAVE DEDUCED...THE FIRES IN NRN QUEBEC HAVE NOT BEEN EXTINGUISHED YET. THAT COULD CHANGE IN A DAY OR SO. I PERSONALLY COULD NOT SEE A SMOKE PLUME FROM THE LATTER VSB SAT PIXS ON TUE...BUT APPARENTLY SMOKE HAS REACHED BACK TO THE GREATER MONTREAL AREA. THE TRAJECTORY WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER SURGENCE OF THE SMOKE BUT DUE TO TOO MANY VARIABLES WILL NOT MENTION AS SUCH FOR THU. EVEN IF THE SMOKE DOES NOT GET US...THE COOL H8 TEMPS WOULD MEAN MORE SC...ESP NORTH SO PARTLY SUNNY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST WAY TO GO WITH THE SKY. ANY SMOKE WILL POSSIBLY THIN ON FRI AS THE WINDS BACK TO A NWRLY DIRECTION...THEN A WRLY DIRECTION. HOWEVER WITH THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT THE SMOKE MIGHT GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A SUBSIDENCE AND PERSIST A LITTLE LONGER. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOW LOOKS TO HOLD ITS GROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND KEEP US MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THE CHC OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH WHERE WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE MIGHT BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE TO YIELD SOME. .EXTENDED...THE UA RIDGE WHICH RETROGRADED TO THE WEST...IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST...BUT MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA ON MON...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKER CAN HIGH PRESSURE. NO REAL CHANGES TO EXTENDED FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED. .HYDROLOGICAL STATUS...THE SHOWERS IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY ARE LIGHT AND WILL BE GONE BY 12Z. NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS FORECAST AFTER THAT THROUGH F48. THEREFORE...NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. .ALY...NONE. HWJIV ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 943 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2002 WILL UPDATE ZFP FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT JUST N OF VA LINE AT 00Z WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER MOST OF ERN NC. CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL LAST PAST MIDNIGHT AND MAY SEE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WITH FRONT MOVING IN OVERNIGHT SO LIKELY POPS LOOK FINE. TEMPS OK AS WELL BUT WILL ADJUST WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS AND LATEST FCST FROM RUC40. MARINE: XPCT FRNT TO MAKE IT S AS FAR AS HAT 12Z THU. WL KEEP WIND SW FOR THE SRN COAST AND MAINTAIN SCA (FSPN 26G28 AT 9PM) IN PRE FRNTL FLOW. WILL RETAIN SCA XPTD IN POST FRNTL NE 20 TO 25 KT FLOW FOR ALL WATERS AS ISALLOBAR MAXIMA WORKS SWD ALG THE NC COAST THU. .MHX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CAPE HATTERAS TO SURF CITY JBM/MJC nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 950 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2002 WILL UPDATE ZONES AND RAISE POPS IN THE CSRA BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND ADJUST WINDS AREAWIDE. RADAR SHOWS MOST SECTIONS OF THE CSRA WILL HAVE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY. THERE HAS GENERALLY BEEN A WEAKENING TREND AND THE LAST RUC SHOWS LITTLE OR NO UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT THROUGH 09Z SO EXPECT THE TREND WILL CONTINUE BECAUSE OF THE LOSS OF HEATING. CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR TSTMS LATE TONIGHT...BUT EXPECT LITTLE COVERAGE BECAUSE OF THE DIURNAL TIMING AND LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. ANY TSTMS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN NON-SEVERE BECAUSE OF ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY. THE LAST MSAS SHOWS LI/S AROUND -2 WITH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONFINED TO THE CSRA. FCSTID = 5 CAE 74 87 71 79 / 60 40 40 40 AGS 72 89 70 80 / 60 40 40 40 SSC 73 87 70 80 / 40 40 40 40 OGB 73 89 70 80 / 40 40 40 40 .CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. RJL sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 930 PM CDT WED JUL 10 2002 UPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN THIS EVENING. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE RUC AND LAPS INDICATED ALONG THE MN/IOWA BORDER BETWEEN KMCW AND KRST. THIS IS AREA THAT DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS EVENING OF AROUND 2 INCHES IN SOUTHWEST PART OF MOWER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MN. DRY AIR FEEDING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA HAS INHIBITED RAINFALL. RUC MODEL SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IOWA ZONES AS UPPER LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. THUS...ANTICIPATE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AFFECTING THESE LOCATIONS TO GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OVERNIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME...WILL CONTINUE FLOOD STATEMENT FOR URBAN/SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS UNTIL 1145 PM THIS EVENING FOR MOWER COUNTY. OPTED TO LEAVE ZONE FORECAST WORDING AS IS FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH MISSISSIPPI RIVER ZONES AND EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL WI MAY NOT SEE TOO MUCH RAINFALL TONIGHT FOR REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE. .LSE...NONE. THOMPSON wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 236 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2002 SYNOPTIC PICTURE THIS MORNING SHOWS MONSTER 500H LOW...BY SUMMER STANDARDS...SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDS FROM A 1014MB CENTRAL MISSOURI LOW TO OMA AND FSD. SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS CONTINUING TO FORCE PRECIP FROM BRL TO IOWA TO CID AND NORTHWEST TO NEAR MASON CITY. NEAR STATIONARY ASPECT OF CONVERGENT ZONE HAS CREATING A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL WHICH IS CREATING URBAN/SMALL STREAM PROBLEMS...AND COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOOD OR RIVER FLOOD PROBLEMS. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THIS PACKAGE IS IN THE SHORT TERM...IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS...WITH PRECIP TREND THRU TODAY...AFTER WHICH THE RAIN MOVES SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. MODEL QPF HAS BEEN PRETTY POOR...TO SAY THE LEAST. THE THE SHORT TERM MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AT 00Z...BUT ONLY THE ETA AND MESO-ETA ARE FOLLOWING PRECIP TREND THRU 06Z WITH ANY DEGREE OF ACCURACY...AND EVEN THESE ARE NOT DOING THAT WELL. THE AVN AND NGM STRUCK OUT IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME WITH CONVERGENT PRECIP ACROSS THE DVN FORECAST AREA. AT 500H AND THE SURFACE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 24 CRITICAL HOURS. THE 500H LOW SINKS SE TO BETWEEN OTM AND BRL BY 00Z THIS EVENING...TO BETWEEN EOK AND UIN BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING...AND TO STL BY 00Z FRIDAY EVENING. THE INVERTED TROF AT THE SURFACE IS SUPPRESSED SOUTH INTO MISSOURI BY THIS EVENING...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. UVV'S ALSO SINK SOUTH INTO MISSOURI BY 00Z. IN THE SHORT TERM...MESO-ETA AND RUC INDICATE THAT UVV'S AND PVA WILL MAINTAIN OVER CURRENT PRECIP AREA THRU 15Z...THEN SHIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIRD OF FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. MESO-ETA AND RUC QPF INDICATED THAT PRECIP FOCUS WILL FOLLOW THIS LEAD...TAKING THE HEAT OFF AREAS WILL CURRENT RAINFALL AND SHIFTING SOUTH. RAIN WILL STILL LINGER LONGER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL STAY WITH COOLEST GUIDANCE TEMPS...BUT GO ABOVE CURRENT PACKAGE PER TRAJECTORIES OUT OF MICHIGAN WHICH INDICATE COOL...BUT NOT EXCEEDINGLY SO. WILL RAISE POPS SOUTHWEST FOR TODAY. WILL KEEP CHANCE PRECIP FOR NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALTO NEW FMR/MEX NOT REALLY STRONG ABOUT. .DVN... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. REA il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 400 AM EDT THU JUL 11 2002 00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV LOOP AND RUC ANAL SHOW HI AMPLITUDE/BLDG POSITIVELY TILTED RDG FM NRN ROCKIES INTO SCNTRL CAN BTWN DEEP TROFS IN ERN CAN/NE CONUS AND OFF THE PAC NW COAST. SLOW MOVG CUTOFF LO OVR SW MN CONTS TO MOVE SSE WITH NWLY FLOW ALF ON BACK SIDE OF ERN TROF DEFLECTING SYS AWAY FM CWA WITH VERY DRY AIR ADVCTG SWD TOWARD CWA (00Z PWAT 0.54 AT INL AND 0.51 AT YPL). ASSOCIATED PCPN REACHED AS FAR E AS DLH-AUW...BUT LATEST 88D LOOP INDICATES THIS RA NOW SINKING S WITH UPR LO. PTCHY HI CLD OVR MAINLY WRN CWA TENDING TO BRK UP AS H3 WNDS VEERING MORE NNW DOWNSTREAM OF BLDG RDG. OTRW...SKIES GENERALLY CLR AS DRY W-E SFC RDG XTNDG FM ND THRU ONTARIO TO JAMES BAY SLIDING SLOWLY S TOWARD THE NW LKS. REPRESENTATIVE 00Z YPL AND GOES DERIVED CYXZ (WAWA) SDNGS SHOW KINX 0 TO 5 WITH VERY DRY AND WELL MIXED BLYR BLO SUBSIDENCE INVRN AT H8-85. MAIN FCST CONCERNS THRU SAT WL BE TEMPS AS RDG/DRY AIRMASS PROGGED TO REMAIN DOMINANT ACRS THE NW GRT LKS. FOR TDAY...SFC HI PRES RDG PROGGED TO DROP OVR CWA BY 00Z. WITH WEAK GRADIENT OVHD...XPCT LK BREEZES FM BOTH LK SUP/MI. SOME CU MAY FORM INLAND OF LK BREEZE FNTS...BUT LO KINX/DRY SDNG OBSVD UPSTREAM SUG NO MORE THAN FEW-SCT CU. PTCHY CI MAY BRUSH THE ERN ZNS AS AREA OF HI CLD IN NRN ONTARIO PUSHES S IN NNWLY FLOW ALF. FULL MIXING OF FCST H85 TEMPS (ARND 11C) INDICATE MAX TEMPS WL REACH THE UPR 70S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE LKS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPSTREAM OBS IN ONTARIO ON WED. PREFER HIER NGM MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX OVR INLAND AREAS. MODELS SHOW SFC HI PRES RDG DRIFTING S OF CWA OVRNGT WITH INCRSG GRADIENT WLY FLOW ACRS THE NRN TIER OVRNGT. STRGR WINDS WL KEEP TEMPS THERE FM FALLING AS FAR AS THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY ON THE MORE EXPOSED AND FARTHER N KEWEENAW PENINSULA. HOWEVER...INLAND AREAS ACRS THE SCNTRL SHUD SEE READINGS JUST AS LO WITH SGNFT DECOUPLING UNDER DRY AIRMASS (PWAT NR 0.50 INCH)/CLR SKIES BEFORE TIGHTER GRADIENT ARRIVES LATE. IN GENERAL...AOB MOS GUIDANCE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...BUT ARND HIER AVN MOS GUIDANCE FOR KEWEENAW. AS HI SINKS FARTHER S ON FRI...TIGHTER GRADIENT WLY FLOW WL OVRSPRD ENTIRE CWA. THIS FLOW WL MINIMIZE LK INFLUENCE...XCPT OVR THE WRN ZNS N OF ONTONAGON AND NR LK MI E OF ESC. BOTH AVN/ETA SHOW H85 TEMPS IN 14-15C RANGE WITH WAD ON N SIDE OF RDG...SO XPCT MAX TEMPS OVR MUCH OF CWA AWAY FM LK MODERATION TO REACH AOA 80 AND ON THE HI SIDE OF MOS...ESPECIALLY IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE NCNTRL CWA. SINCE FLOW IS CONTINENTAL...XPCT ONLY SML INCRS IN LLVL MSTR DESPITE WAD. WITH INCRS IN H85 TEMP...XPCT LTL IF ANY CU. BUT MODELS DO SUG AN AXIS OF HI CLD WL SPILL ACRS CWA AS WEAK SHRTWV IN NWLY FLOW ALF MOVES SINKS THRU ERN ONTARIO. WLY FLOW ON NRN FLANK OF SFC HI REMAINS DOMINANT ON FRI NGT AND SAT. XPCT LTL IF ANY CLD WITH RISING HGTS WELL S OF MAIN JET AXIS IN CAN. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NGT WL BE CONSIDERABLY HIER THAN TNGT OVR MOST OF CWA AS GRADIENT FLOW/MIXING PREVENT DECOUPLING AND TEMP FM FALLING TO DWPT. IN GENERAL...AOA MOS FOR MINS. MAXES ON SAT ALSO AOA MOS... ESPECIALLY IN FVRD DOWNSLOPE AREAS. COOLEST ON W SIDE OF KEWEENAW AND LK MI E OF ESC. .MQT...NONE. KC mi SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 321 AM CDT THU JUL 11 2002 UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYING AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. EXPANSIVE RIDGE / CHARACTERIZED BY 600DM 500MB HEIGHTS CENTERED OVER NV AND CA / DOMINANT OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WHILE LARGE SCALE TROUGH PRESENT FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. IN BETWEEN THESE BROAD FEATURES...CLOSED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUMBLING SSEWRD THROUGH MN/IA OVERNIGHT AMIDST NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. LATEST SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A SFC LOW IN SOUTHERN IA...ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER...AND INTO WESTERN KS. CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE CWA. NORTH OF THE IOWA SFC LOW...INVERTED TROUGH/WIND SHIFT AXIS DENOTED FROM WESTERN IA INTO WESTERN MN. STRATUS PLUNGING SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN NEB. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER COLD POOL / -10C AT 500MB / PIVOTS THROUGH IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ON PERIPHERY OF UPPER LOW/VORT LOBE...QUESTION IS HOW FAR WEST ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP AND WHETHER ANY LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED. THINKING IS GID CWA FAR ENOUGH WEST -- PER LESS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND LESSER DYNAMIC LIFT ON EDGE OF UPPER IMPULSE -- THAT AREA WILL REMAIN MAINLY DRY. THUS...ANY POTENTIAL RAIN COVERAGE IN THE EASTERN CWA WOULD BE SPOTTY AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. 11/00Z OPERATIONAL ETA/AVN CONFINE SCANT QPF TO E/NE CWA...WITH LATEST EXPERIMENTAL RUC20 CONFORMING TO THIS IDEA AS WELL. INFLUX OF COOLER AIRMASS AND DENSE CU/STRATO-CU WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SFC RIDGE WILL REINFORCE E/NE FETCH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- MAINTAINING SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY EAST CWA...BEFORE CLEARING ON FRIDAY. FRIDAYS HIGH TEMPS SIMILAR TO TODAYS. SFC RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY WITH A CORRESPONDING RETURN TO SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW DURING THE DAY. AS SUCH...WOULD EXPECT FAIRLY TIGHT WEST TO EAST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TO SET UP ACROSS THE CWA IN OTHERWISE PLENTIFUL INSOLATION. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE...IF ANY...CHANGES TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK. UNFORTUNATE FOR DROUGHT CONCERNS... PERSISTENT WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL BE PROPITIOUS FOR CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LOSS OF SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS...A GENERAL WARMING TREND OCCURS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TO AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. COORDINATED WITH TOP. GID...NONE. GUYER ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 347 AM EDT THU JUL 11 2002 FNT HARD TO FIND WI VARIOUS BNDRIES IN AREA. HWVR APPRS TO STILL BE LCTD N OF NC/VA BRDR ATTM. LTST RUC HAS IT DROPPG INTO CWA ARND 9Z AND THRU CWA AFT 12Z. ACTVTY TO OUR W DCRSG IN INTENSITY AS IT MVS INTO AREAS THAT HV ALREADY HAD ACTVTY EARLIER IN THE AFTN. HWVR XPCT ACTVTY TO CONT AS FRNT DROPS THRU AREA. MDLS APPR TO INITIALIZAE ABT THE SAME AT 00Z. AS FNT DROPS S OF AREA TDY A WV FORMS ON IT WHICH WL KP MSTR CLOSE TO CST AND SRN SXNS. FNT WL START TO MV BACK N FRI NGT AS SERIES OF WVS MV NE ALNG IT. AVN KPS IT WELL S OF AREA THRU THE WKEND. IN THE UPR LVLS LO OVR NRN TIER STATES WL OPEN UP THRU THE PD THEN TRY TO CUT OFF AS IT DEEPENS OVR THE PLAINS STATES THRU THE WKEND. PIECES OF ENERGY FRM THIS LO WL MV THRU CWA THRU THE PD. HWVR NOT MUCH OMEGA ASSCTD WI THESE WVS. AVN SHOWS FNT MVG N INTO CWA MON AFTN. WUD LIKE TO KP IT DRY THRU THE WKEND TIL FNT MVS INTO AREA ON MON. HWVR WI UPR LVL ENERGY AND HIER RH LVLS WL HV TO CARRY A CHC SAT...INCRSG CHC SUN ...BTR CHC MON. SW LO LVL FLO RETURNG TUE. MRF SHOWG ANTHR PIECE OF ENERGY OVR AREA TUE SO WL CONT CHCS TUE...BUT DROP THEM ON WED. XPCT COOLR TEMPS TDY AND TMRW...LO TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS. UPR 60S TO LO 70S TNGT WI RESIDUAL MSTR AND DROPPG INTO 60S FRI NGT WI DRIER AIR. CWF...COLD FNT TO THE N WILL MOV SWD THRU THE MARINE AREA AS THE DAY UNFOLDS. LUKING AT THE 06Z SFC ANAL THERE IS A GD PRES GRAD ACRS VA AND OUT IN THE OHIO VLY. THIS GRAD WL MOV ACRS THE AREA TDY WITH A GD SURGE OF N/NE WNDS BEHIND THE FNT. SCA'S WL DEFINITELY BE UP AS 25 KT AND GUSTY QUITE LIKELY OVR THE NRN WTRS AND SNDS. OVR THE SRN WTRS...SW FLOW IS STILL PRETTY STRNG AHEAD OF THE FNT. SEAS ARE 6 FT OUT THERE AS THE MONITOR HAD 6 FT YESTERDAY AFT AND FPSN7 NOW HAS 6 FT. SCA WL BE UP FOR SRN WTRS ALSO AS WNDS WL SHFT TO N/NE THIS AFT AND SEA STATE WL ACTUALLY BEC MORE CHAOTIC AFTER WND SHFT AS NE FLOW BUCKS AGAINT RESIDUAL SW SWELL. SCA'S WL REMAIN UP EVERYWHERE TNT AS SEAS WL LIKELY REACH 8 FT UP N. WK WAVE OF LOW PRES OFFSHR AND HI PRES TO THE N WL STILL PROVIDE FRISKY CONDS TO THE CSTL WTRS. WL STILL LILKELY BE SCA CONDS TO START THE DAY. RIP CURRENT THREAT... INCRSD THREAT OTR BNKS AS NE WNDS CRANK UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH ON THE BEACHES AND WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE QUICKLY RESPOND. LIKELY A DANGEROUS THREAT ON FRI. BOGUE BNKS...INCRSD THREAT AS SURF STILL QUITE ROUGH THIS MORN AS SW FLOW PERSISTS. LTR TDY THE WND SHFT TO THE NE WL CLEAN IT UP BUT STILL PLENTY OF RESIDUAL SW SWELL FOR ROUGH CONDS. .MHX...SCA CSTL WTRS AND SNDS. GOODALL/GATES nc EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1010 AM EDT THU JUL 11 2002 LCL WX IS DECEPTIVELY QUIET THIS MORNING. MORNING SOUNDINGS AND LATEST RUC80 ANALYSIS INDICATES THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED S TO THE CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA IN RESPONSE TO A SFC-H50 S/WV SLIDING OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. DEPSITE A THIN BAND OF DRIER AIR WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE PANHANDLE (KJAX/KTLH PW VALUES 1.5"-1.6") AMS OVER THE PENINSULA REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PW VALUES NEAR 2.0" AT KXMR/KTBW/KMFL. MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE W FL COAST IS ALREADY PRODUCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE WCSB. SWRLY H85-H50 STEERING FLOW OVER THE S HALF OF THE PENINSULA WILL PUSH THIS BOUNDARY WELL INLAND BY EARLY AFTN...WHILE PINNING THE ECSB OVER THE COASTAL CWA. LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW NEAR MAX SFC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. EXPECT MORNING SUN TO GIVE WAY TO A SIGNIFICANT MIDDAY CU FIELD...THEN MID/LATE AFTN CONVECTION. SVR WX NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER...AS TEMPS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY WARM. H50/H40 TEMPS YIELD VERY HIGH VOD VALUES...AS HIGH AS 75 AT KXMR. FCST LOOKS FINE. WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE "AFTN" REFERENCES. MARINE...FCST IN LINE WITH THE LASTEST BUOY/C-MAN OBS. NO HIGHLIGHTS...NO SIG CHANGES. .MLB...NONE. PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAGAW AVIATION/FIRE WX...CRISTALDI fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 855 AM EDT THU JUL 11 2002 SYNOPSIS: RUC H5/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMPOSITE SHOWS WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. UPPER LOW DROPPING SEWD INTO IA & UPPER TROF SWINGING THRU NEW ENGLAND/CANADIAN MARITIMES. MEAN RIDGE PERSISTS OVER INTERMOUNTAIN W. RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN EVIDENT OVER SERN CONUS. WEAK LOW OVER N/CNTRL GULF STILL DISORGANIZED W/ CONVECTION ON S SIDE OF CIRCULATION. CONVERGENT BANDS WELL NE OF SYSTEM, HOWEVER, ARE PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS, MOVING N/NW. A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM SRN KY TO SE VA. 12Z TLH RAOB IS SIMILAR TO 24 HRS AGO W/ 1.56" PWAT & UNMODIFIED 2799 J/KG CAPE. SKIES WERE M/SUNNY TO SUNNY W/ TEMPS IN THE 70S. ZONES: SEA BREEZE REGIME TODAY WILL BE LIGHT SELY (TYPE 1) 1000-700 MB FLOW. HOWEVER, W/ FRONT DROPPING S INTO N GA LATER TODAY, LOW OVER GULF & S/WAVE ENERGY ROTATING NWWD ACROSS FL, IT MAY BE A DISTURBED DAY. FOR THESE REASONS, WILL LEAVE POPS AS IS, BUT WILL UPDATE FORECASTS TO FRESHEN UP WORDING. MARINE: NO HIGHLIGHTS. OBS SHOW GENERALLY SLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS & SEAS 2-3 FT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE & HAVE WORDED ACCORDINGLY ON LATE MORNING UPDATE. FIRE WEATHER: NO CONCERNS. .TLH... .AL...NONE. .GA...NONE. .FL...NONE. MAJ fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1000 AM EDT THU JUL 11 2002 GOING FORECAST ON TRACK. UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL IOWA. FLARE UP OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON EASTERN SIDE OF LOW THIS MORNING IS IN RESPONSE TO 30-45 KT LLJ EVIDENT BY 06Z ETA. THIS AREA OF RAIN HAS BEEN MOVING WEST/NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATING AS IT TRAVELS FURTHER INTO THE DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW SOUTHERN TRACK PER RUC AND 06Z ETA. IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IS DOMINATING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SHOULD DO IT THIS AFTERNOON. NO UPDATE IS PLANNED. .MQT...NONE. CVKING mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED CCF NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 1040 AM EDT THU JUL 11 2002 CAE RADAR IS STILL DOWN AND AWAITING PARTS. EARLIEST UPTIME WOULD BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE NC/SC STATE LINE. RUC AND MESOETA HAVE WK VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST UVV OVER THE CSRA. H8 ALSO SHOWS WK COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF NORTHERN ZONES. SATPIX SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND THIS IS WHAT WE WILL NEED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. TEMP FORECAST LOOK GOOD BUT MAY LOWER THEM A TAD IN THE NORTHERN ZONES. CHANCE POPS ARE PROBABLY BETTER DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS OVER THE AREA SO WILL CUT THEM A TAD AS WELL. CAE TW 087/068 077/069 081 566 AGS TW 090/070 080/069 083 577 SSC TW 087/068 077/069 081 566 OGB TW 087/068 077/069 081 566 LKR TW 084/067 075/067 079 455 27J TW 087/068 077/069 081 566 S19 TW 090/070 080/069 083 577 .CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY 1030 AM MDT THU JUL 11 2002 LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG IN ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN SD PLAINS. SUNNY ACROSS THE HILLS AND NE WY. 12Z ETA AND LATEST RUC SHOW SLOW EROSION OF CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST THRU THE DAYTIME HOURS. SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS NW SD NOW...BUT LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS E ZONES MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WILL UPDATE ZONES FOR CLOUD COVER. WILL ALSO LOWER HIGH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS SD PLAINS. .UNR...NONE. ST sd