FXUS61 KILN 281717
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
118 PM EDT THU OCT 28 2004


.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
WEAK SFC LOW PRRESSURE AND FRONT OVER THE TN VALLEY WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE OVER THE GREA LAKES. POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS EXTEND N TO 
NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER AND REMAIN S OF THE TAF SITES.
STRATUS FORMED IN LOW LEVEL NE FLO OFF LAKE ERIE. THESE CLOUDS WERE 
AFFECTING NW OH AND THE SRN EXTENT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE KDAY 
TAF.  LATEST VIS SATL IMGRY WAS SHOWING THAT THESE CLDS WERE SLOWLY 
ERODING AND SHUD BE OUT OF THE KDAY SITE SOON. FOG WAS ALSO SLOWLY 
IMPROVING AND WL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH MORE SUNSHINE.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE S TO PUSH NWD AS A WARM FRONT LATER 
TONIGHT/FRI. GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS LATER TNGT AHD OF THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. EXPECT CLDS TO LOWER LATE THIS EVE WITH
CIGS GOING BLO 1000 FT. WL LIMIT SHOWERS TO 4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP 
LATE TONIGHT IN THE SW AND EARLY FRI IN CNTRL OH. ELEVATED INSTBY
IS INDICATED AND AT THIS TIME WL MENTION VCTS IN THE WESTERN TAF
SITE. GFS CONTS TO BE WETTER IN WARM SECTOR ON FRI WHILE ETA IS
DRIER. FOR NOW WL OPT FOR DRY WARM SECTOR FOR TAF POINTS.
&&   
  
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE FOLLOWING WAS ORIGINALLY ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT THU OCT 28 2004

SHORT TERM (TODAY)...
CLOUDS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AFFECTING THE HI TEMPERATURE IS
THE WEATHER PROBLEM TODAY. WEAK SFC LOW PRRESSURE AND FRONT OVER THE 
TN VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREA LAKES. POST FRONTAL 
CLOUDS EXTEND N TO NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER. STRATUS FORMED IN 
LOW LEVEL NE FLO OFF LAKE ERIE. THESE CLOUDS WERE AFFECTING NW OH 
AND LATEST VIS SATL IMGRY WAS SHOWING THAT THEY WERE SLOWLY ERODING. 
FOG WAS SLOWLY IMPROVING AND WL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH MORE 
SUNSHINE. EXPECT NRN KY TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WL MAKE THAT 
ADJUSTMENT. CLOUDS ACRS THE NW EXPECT TO CONT TO SLOWLY ERODE THRU
AFTN WITH PC CONDITIONS LKLY LATE. WL MAKE SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS 
TO THE HIGH TEMPS BASED ON THESE CLOUDS.
&&


THE FOLLOWING WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2004

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
GFS SHOWING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS FA THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY
WHILE LATEST ETA SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND DRIER NOW WITH FRONT. HAVE
OPTED TO STICK CLOSER TO GFS FOR CONSISTENCY PURPOSES AND KEEP HIGH
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN DRY THINGS OUT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH SOME INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF FRONT...WILL KEEP
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY
BUT DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL LIFT UP TOWARD AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING...WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH CHANCE
POPS TO SPREAD UP FROM THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AND
WITH SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITIES...WILL ALSO INCLUDE A
CHANCE OF THUNDER.

AS WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ON MONDAY...FA GETS INTO THE
WARM SECTOR. WITH FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST...WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDER.
SINCE SHORT WAVE APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...PREFER FASTER
GFS AND WILL DRY THINGS OUT WEST TO EAST ACROSS AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. GOOD CAA BEHIND FRONT SO THINGS COULD GET
A LITTLE WINDY AS 8H WINDS STILL IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOT RANGE THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z TUESDAY. WILL THEN KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED BUT LOWER TEMPS AND GO COOLER THAN GUID FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS AS IT LOOKS LIKE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.  JGL

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$