EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PDT TUE AUG 10 1999
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INLAND INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TODAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM THE
SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
TODAY...THEN WARM WEDNESDAY...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY.
NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS.
MDLS ARE STILL CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST OF MOVG THE CLOSED LOW
OFF THE CNTRL CA CST INLAND INTO CNTRL CA TODAY...THEN WKNG IT AND
SHEARING IT INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WED.
HEIGHTS ACROSS SRN CA REACH THEIR MIN POINT TODAY...THEN REBUILD
QUICKLY WED AND THU AS THE UPR LOW MOVES INLAND AND WKNS AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RDG S OF 30 N BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHWARD INTO SRN CA.
CSTL EDDY HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED. MORE CORRECTLY...A CSTL EDDY THAT
DEVELOPED LATE LAST NIGHT AND PERSISTED INTO MON AFTERNOON...QUICKLY
REDEVELOPED EARLY MON EVENING. WINDS AT SAN...FOR EXAMPLE...STAYED
SLY TO SWLY ALL DAY MON INTO MON EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT SLY TO
SELY LATE MON EVENING. SOUNDINGS EARLY MON EVENING SHOWED THE BASE
OF A WK MARINE INVERSION NR 2000 FT. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE
MON EVENING SUGGESTED HEIGHTS MAY HAVE ALREADY BOTTOMED OUT OVR SWRN
CA. HENCE... ADDITIONAL WKNG OF THE INVERSION IS UNLIKELY AND
INVERSION MAY ACTUALLY STRENGTHEN A MINOR AMOUNT THIS MORNING
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW STRATUS TO SPREAD INTO ORANGE COUNTY...THE
INLAND EMPIRE...AND POSSIBLY SRN LOS ANGELES COUNTY BY MORNING. SOME
MINOR DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LYR MAY ALSO OCCUR INTO THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE REPORTS SUGGEST A DEPTH OF AROUND 2500
FEET OVR CSTL SAN DIEGO AS OF 09Z...A DEEPENING OF AROUND 500 FT FM
EARLY MON EVENING. TIME OF CLEARING FOR THIS MORNING HAS YET TO BE
RESOLVED. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE MARINE LYR HAS DEEPENED SOME FM
24 HOURS AGO AND THAT THE LATEST (06Z) RUC SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED EDDY
CRCLN PERSISTING THRU 18Z...WOULD EXPECT SLOWER CLRG AT THE CST THAN
THE PAST TWO MORNINGS. AS THE RDG BEGINS TO BUILD INTO SRN CA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THU...THE MARINE INVERSION SHOULD GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AND LWR THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS.
SAN 000
.SAN...MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW ALONG CST
NEXT FEW DAYS...SEE LAXMWSSAN.
MARTIN
FXUS66 KLOX 100954 ca
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
422 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 1999
SHORT TERM...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INHIBIT SEA BREEZE FORMATION FOR MOST OF THE COAST. RADAR
SHOWING SCATTERED...AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE...LIGHTNING STORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND EXITING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.
ALSO ...RADAR SHOWING SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LOWER PORTION OF AJAX FORECAST AREA WITH MORE BOUNDARIES
APPROACHING FROM THE BIG BEND REGION. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY GET
STRONGER AS THEY MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTERACT WITH THE
MARINE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST RUC PROG PLACES 700MB TO 500MB TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. LAPS 500MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS PLOT
PLACE MAIN AXIS OF VORTICITY MAX OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR TONIGHT...PERSISTENCE FORECAST MID 70S AND LIGHTNING STORMS AND
SHOWERS ENDING DURING THE EVENING.
LONG TERM...MODELS ARE STILL IN SOMEWHAT AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE
WEAK AND DYING SURFACE TROUGH SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FA ON WEDNESDAY. PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE FOCUS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY. WILL STAY CLOSE TO NGM NUMBERS TONIGHT AND ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER WILL UP POPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA
TO LIKELY POPS DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY.
THE MODELS DIFFER INVOLVING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OFF THE
EAST COAST BY THURSDAY. NGM/AVN DEVELOP LOW AND PUSH ANOTHER TROUGH
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FA BETWEEN 18Z THURSDAY TO 00Z FRIDAY...WHILE THE
ETA DOES NOT BASICALLY RECOGNIZE THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW...WILL GO
ALONG WITH THE NGM SOLUTION AS IT LOOKS TO BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE ETA AND THE MORE AGRESSIVE AVN REGARDING THIS.
AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY...WILL GO
CLOSE TO NGM GUIDANCE BOTH PERIODS.
TEMPS LOOK GENERALLY GOOD FROM NGM AND FAN GUIDANCE AND IS
ACCEPTABLE.
.MARINE...WILL BE PERSISTENT AS FAR AS COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.
BUOYS 9 AND 10 CONTINUE TO INDICATE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM SW-W
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO THIS SOLUTION TONIGHT. AS FOR
WEDNESDAY...WILL PUSH WINDS AROUND MORE TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO
15 KNOTS. WILL AGAIN DROP BACK WINDS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED TSRA AGAIN WILL BE MENTIONED.
.PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
DAB TB 074/093 074/092 075 11453
MCO TB 075/091 075/093 076 11454
MLB TB 074/092 075/093 075 11454
.MLB...NONE.
WIMMER/TROUTMAN
FXUS72 KMFL 101849 fl
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 1999
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CAPE AND TAMPA SOUNDINGS HAVE LIFTED INDICES OF -4 OR BETTER. LAPS
700MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS WELL AS RECENT SOUNDINGS...CAPE 925MHZ
PROFILERS AND 88D VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
15 KNOTS. ANY SEA BREEZE THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL COUNTIES. STORMS AND OUTFLOWS FROM WEST COAST WILL BE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. LATEST RUC PROGS DEPICT 500MB
VORTICITY MAX OVER NORTHERN FORECAST AREA.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NO MORNING UPDATE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE...NO HILIGHTS AS OFFSHORE FETCH AREA CONTINUES. HIGHEST WINDS
ALONG SEGMENT NORTH OF CAPE WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHER GRADIENT
THERE. LOOSENING GRADIENT SHOWN BY EARLY THU.
.MLB...NONE.
WIMMER/TROUTMAN
FXUS72 KMFL 101341 fl
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1000 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 1999
GEORGIA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WHICH...AS IT HAS FOR THE PAST MONTH...REMAINS OVER TEXAS
PRODUCING EXCESSIVE HEAT AND DROUGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH TEMPS AT
850MB NUDGING ABOVE +20 DEG. C ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT AS BAD AS IT WILL GET IF THE
MODELS ARE CORRECT. FWC MAXES FOR WED/THU APPEAR OVERDONE AS USUAL
THIS SUMMER. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASING CLOSE TO
LOCAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND THIS SHOULD BE WATCHED BY LATER
SHIFTS. IT APPEARS THAT CENTRAL AREAS OF OUR CWA WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO THE CRITICAL 105 DEG. HEAT INDEX WED AND THU.
WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THESE
PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS THIS EVENING. MESO-ETA DEPICTS WEAK
TROUGH TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE THIS
EVENING...WHILE LAPS ANALSYSIS SHOWS WEAK WIND CONVERGENCE IN THIS
AREA. WEAK SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN VICINITY OF AGS. OTHERWISE...VERY
LITTLE ELSE TO SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...MESO-ETA DOES NOT
SHOW FEATURE DISSIPATING ENTIRELY UNTIL AROUND 15Z WED...SO MAY NEED
TO KEEP ISOLATED POPS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL AREAS FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS IN UPDATE.
RUC/MESO-ETA MODEL AGREE ON GENERAL PATTERN OF WNW FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONING TO A MORE NW FLOW ALOFT AS RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD...BUT RUC MODEL APPEARS MUCH DRIER ACROSS N/CENTRAL GA
THROUGH THE PERIOD THAN MES0-ETA MODEL. PREFER MESO-ETA DEPICTION
OF MOISTURE. THIS FACTORS COMBINED WITH CIRRUS DEBRIS FROM MCC
ARKLATEX REGION MAKE ME UNCOMFORTABLE WITH CURRENT "MOSTLY CLEAR"
WORDING AND WILL CHANGE TO FAIR OR PARTLY CLOUDY AS NEEDED.
TEMPERATURES BASICALLY APPEAR ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH READINGS AT MOST
LOCATIONS ARE 2-3 DEG. WARMER THAN AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. WILL
ADJUST AS NECESSARY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THE NE MOUNTAINS...WHERE I WOULD NOT EXPECT 50S
TONIGHT (E.G., BLAIRSVILLE REPORTED A LOW OF 58 THIS MORNING).
VISIBILITIES REDUCED BY HAZE ALREADY AT MANY LOCATIONS...AND WILL
WORD ZONES MOST AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR MORNING FOG AND HAZE.
VISIBILITIES MAY REMAIN IN THE 6SM HZ RANGE MUCH OF THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF DAYTIME WORDING FOR NOW.
ATL...NONE.
RAB
FXUS72 KFFC 101942 ga
STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1055 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 1999
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG COVERING WEST CENTRAL GA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA.
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF BURNING OFF FROM EAST TO WEST
WITH THE LAST AREAS TO CLEAR LIKELY TO BE ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK LOW NEAR AGS WITH A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/TROF STRETCHING FROM NEAR ATL TO NEAR AGS. NEAR AND SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PM T-STORM
ACTIVITY. MESO ETA DID NOT SHOW ANY PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
AREA...BUT 12Z RUC DID SHOW A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH
ALONG THE GA/AL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA OF 50% RH IN THAT
AREA. IT ALSO DID SHOW SOME PRINTOUT IN THAT AREA AS WELL. MODIFIED
12Z FFC SOUNDING TO 92F DID SHOW AN LI OF -5.7 WITH A CAPE OF 2935
J/KG. MORNING ZONES FOR THE MOST PART LOOKED OK...BUT AM INCLINED TO
PUT A 20 POP IN ATL ZONE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING
THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE ATL AREA. ALSO WILL RAISE MCN ZONE TO 30
POP...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE IS. WILL CHECK 11 AM OBS AND SEND ZONES
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
ATL...NONE.
AP
ga
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
330 AM CDT MON AUG 9 1999
NOT MUCH TO DISCUSS IN THE SHORT TERM. FRONT BARELY EVIDENT ON SFC
MAPS AND WILL LIKELY WASH OUT. RUC POINTS TO A VERY DRY AMS AND A
GOOD SUBSIDENCE FIELD MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THEREFORE I WONT
TRY AND MAKE MORE OUT OF THIS. WL JUST WORD THE FCST SUNNY. AS FOR
TEMPS...THE FRONT WASN'T MUCH OF A COLD FRONT SO TEMPS WILL STILL BE
IN THE MID 80S. THERE WILL BE SOME COMPRESSIONAL HTG IN THE IVOF
FRONT OR WHERE IT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE SERN FA. THEREFORE I WL
FCST MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER IN THIS AREA.
NEXT SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO IA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WL LAY A BOUNDARY OUT SOMEWHERE OVER
THE STATE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SVR (WND/HAIL EVENT MOST LIKELY).
THE UNKNOWN HERE IS WHERE THE BOUNDARY WL GET STRETCHED ACROSS. IN
ANY EVENT THE BOUNDARY WL BE SLOW TO LEAVE SO I WL CONTINUE THE TREND
OF KEEPING A MENTION OF CONVECTION THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPS TO REMAIN
SEASONAL AS WELL.
.DSM...NONE
FAB
ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
930 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 1999
DEWPOINT-WINDSHIFT BNDRY LINE (WEAK FRONT) AT 00Z WAS ONLY MOVING
SLOWLY SE AND WAS LOCATED JUST NE OF OHIO RIVER ACRSS S IN AND OH AT
00Z. SOME MOISTURE POOLING NOTED ALONG THE BNDRY...BUT MOISTURE AT ALL
LEVELS ACRSS THE AREA IS PRETTY SCARCE. FEW SHRA S/ONE OR TWO TSRA S
FIRED UP AN HOUR OR SO AGO OVER S IN AND NEAR CVG. 21Z RUC IS ABOUT THE
ONLY MODEL THAT PICKED UP ON THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.
SAT PIXS SHOWING A FEW CLOUDS DRIFTING ACRSS CWA OUT AHEAD OF THE WEAK
FRONT. AIRMASS OVERHEAD IS PRETTY DRY AND STABLE...SO NOT EXPECTING A
WHOLE LOT OF ANYTHING GOING ON TONIGHT. CURRENT TEMPS IN ZONE PACKAGE
MAY BE A TAD LOW. LAMP DATA TRENDS (METEOGRAMS-TIMES SERIES) THIS
EVENING CONTINUE TO SHOW THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WARMER WITH EACH RUN
AND THIS SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE WITH SW FLOW AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AND
TEMPS ARE RUNNING SOME 6-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WHEN LOWS
GOT DOWN TO AROUND 60.
WILL WATCH TRENDS A FEW MINUTES LONGER...BUT MAY UPDATE AND TWEAK TEMPS
AND SKY COVER A TAD.
THANKS TO SDF FOR COORDINATION.
.JKL...NONE
HALL
FXUS63 KJKL 101928 ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
200 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 1999
IN THE SHORT TERM...MAIN CONCERN IS A SURFACE TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT
LINE THAT WAS JUST NORTH OF A FAM-MVN-HUF LINE AT 18Z. LATEST RUC MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 750 MB IN THIS
AREA...SUPPORTED BY 12Z BNA RAOB. EVEN THOUGH RUC INDICATES THE CAP
WILL ERODE OR DISSIPATE BY EVENING...CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS
MINIMAL DUE TO SHALLOW NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERY
WEAK UPPER SUPPORT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CAP IS WEAKENING AND LATEST
VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW CU FIELD EXPANDING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF EARLY EVENING THUNDER IN
NORTHERN ZONES.
AFTER THIS EVENING...FORECAST CONCERN BECOMES THE HEAT. INTENSE HEAT
IS BUILDING WEST OF THE CWA...WITH TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS IN THE SRN
PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT 850 MB SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH OF THIS HEAT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNTIL LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE FA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WARM ADVECTION.
THEREFORE...NGM MOS HIGHS APPEAR OVERAGGRESSIVE IN WARMING TEMPS TO
THE UPPER 90S WEDNESDAY...AND WILL CUT THEM BACK SEVERAL DEGREES.
ONCE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THURSDAY...THE
HEAT WILL BUILD IN EARNEST AS SHOWN BY NGM MOS. PRECIP CHANCES
APPEAR VERY REMOTE AS THE SURFACE TROUGH WASHES OUT AND THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
MRF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS IN BRINGING A
WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...THE BULK OF
THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS NORTH OF THE CWA...SO PRECIP
POTENTIAL APPEARS LOWEST WHERE NEEDED MOST...IN THE SOUTHEAST THIRD
OF THE CWA.
.PAH...NONE.
MY
FXUS63 KLMK 101850 ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1045 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 1999
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING SWAY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR CHICAGO DOWN TOWARD ST LOUIS. A
BATCH OF WEAKENING...RENEGADE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LATEST RUC AND MESOETA
KEEP ANY EFFECTS OF THIS WELL NORTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT AND
A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE CLIP OUR NORTHEAST PORTION ON ITS WAY PAST. FOR
TODAY THOUGH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WINDS TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL
PUT TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE MIDDLE 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THIS IS WITH
IN THE FORECASTED HIGH AND CLOSE TO 00Z MOS NUMBERS. THEREFORE THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL LET IT RIDE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
.JKL...NONE
GREIF
ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1015 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 1999
LATEST APX 88D SHOWING SHOWERS HAVE NOW DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA... AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PUSH EASTWARD INTO LAKE HURON. LATEST RUC SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... PROGGED TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE
WESTERN LAKE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. RUC MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY TIME SECTIONS SHOWING DECREASING
MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA... WHICH
MATCHES WELL WITH CURRENT STLT TRENDS.
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND CALMING WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NORTHEAST LOWER AND EAST UPPER MICHIGAN...
DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW... WILL KEEP
MENTION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
.APX...NONE.
SWR
FXUS63 KGRR 110224 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1034 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 1999
12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...ONE
NEAR P59...AND ANOTHER NEAR GRB...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...AND
SOUTHEAST IOWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN...AND THIS SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
THE TOUGH FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH A LARGE HOLE IN THE
OVERCAST IN AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 69. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...AND SOME OF THIS WAS ADVECTING
EAST...YET HOLES ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERCAST IN A FEW
SPOTS.
12Z RUC SHOWS DRY SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60
WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST
DEW POINT PROGGED TO BE OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE 12Z RUC
SHOWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 65 DEGREE F DEW POINTS BETWEEN 21Z AND
00Z. BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND 250 MB DIVERGENCE WILL BE OVER
THAT SOME AREA. 850 THETAE RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER
THE FAR SOUTH. 12Z RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND
LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITY PROG SUGGEST GOOD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAINLY
SOUTH OF M 59...WITH MORE CLOUDS NORTH. WILL OPT FOR PARTLY SUNNY
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST...AND SHOOT FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH.
CHANCES OF THUNDER APPEAR BEST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IN
BETTER INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. GIVEN SUFFICIENT SUN...
WOULD EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP OVER FAR
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. 850 MB AND 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS WANES ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THE THUMB EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND LINGERING SHOWERS AS A RESULT SHOULD WANE AS
WELL. STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REDEVELOPING THERE WITH
UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH ALONG WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. GOOD
STABILITY IN PLACE ON THE 12Z RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS BY 00Z IN
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
WILL TEND TO LOWER EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-69 WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOST PLENTIFUL. COMMENTS WELCOME.
.DTX...NONE.
DJF
FXUS63 KMQT 100907 AMD mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
930 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 1999
MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCE.
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ERUPT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...
IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. TWO DISTINCT
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING AT LATE EVENING. THE FIRST WAS
OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND THE OTHER WAS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
BOTH WERE ASSOCIATED WITHIN AN AREA OF STRENGTHENING WAA AND WITH
TWO WEAK VORT MAXES. WAA IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AS WELL
AS THETA-E ADVECTION.
HAVE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN ZONES
TONIGHT...WITH THE NEW ETA HINTING AT STORMS MOVING INTO THAT AREA
BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE NEW ETA DOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CONVECTION IN NORTH DAKOTA...NOR DOES THE RUC OR NGM. STILL THINK
THE MAIN THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME AFTER DAYBREAK FOR MOST
AREAS...AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH
PERHAPS A BREAK FOR A TIME ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE DEWPOINT IN SOME
SPOTS ALREADY...HAVE ALSO BROUGHT SOME FOG IN OVERNIGHT.
.DLH...NONE.
DAP
FXUS63 KMPX 110248 mn
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 1999
FORECAST CONCERNS: PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WIND SHIFT/PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH LITTLE FANFARE AND NO CLOUDS TO SPEAK OF. ACTUAL COLD
FRONT REMAINED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI WHERE DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE
LOWER 60S. SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
DISSIPATED RAPIDLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE REMNANT CIRRUS DEBRIS
DRIFTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED AGAIN...
WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 90S.
IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TEASED BY
MOTHER NATURE: MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE OKLAHOMA COMPLEX
IS FORECAST BY THE RUC AND THE AVN/ETA/NGM TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
ARKANSAS TONIGHT.
MAIN WEATHER SYSTEM...THE ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST...
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THE
BEST LIFTING WILL TO OUR NORTHWEST AND LEAVE US DRY AND WARM YET
AGAIN. MAIN EFFECT ON THE LOCAL WEATHER WILL BE A BREEZY SOUTH WIND
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY IN
THE FIRST TWO DAYS FOR ALL ZONES.
FAN GUIDANCE STILL TOO COOL AND MUST NOT TAKE THE BAKED GROUND INTO
ACCOUNT. PREFER THE WARMER FWC...WHICH STILL MAY BE TOO COOL AT SGF.
IN THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME: ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY...AND THE CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE
RETAINED.
JLN BB 073/094 073/094 073 081--1
SGF BB 071/095 071/095 071 081--1
UNO BB 069/095 070/095 071 081--1
VIH BB 068/092 069/093 070 081--1
.SGF...NONE.
SUTTON
FXUS63 KLSX 101852 mo
SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
830 PM MDT TUE AUG 10 1999
MODELS FCST UPR LOW NEAR RNO TO MOVE NE AND BECOME OPEN TROF OVER MT BY
WED EVE...WITH MOST ENERGY OVER SRN MT. SHORT WAVE TROF OVER ID WL MOV
INTO SWRN MT BY 12Z. THIS AGREES WELL WITH THE 00Z RUC. RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS MOVG INTO SW MT ALREADY THIS EVE AND WL UPDATE FOR HIR POPS. AMS
IS STILL DRY AND STABLE ACROSS CNTRL MT...THUS WL UPDATE ZN 12 & 13 TO
DELAY SHOWERS TO AFTER 06Z AT THE EARLIEST. WILL ALSO UPDATE SFP
WILLIAMSON DC/EYSSAUTIER
GTF 2553 HLN 5543 HVR 1452
FXUS65 KTFX 110232 mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
935 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 1999
PLENTY OF MORNING CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPS DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL NY SO
HAVE ADJUST AFTN MAXES DOWNWARD JUST A LITTLE. LAMP GUIDANCE AND
MORNING SOUNDINGS AC/AS MAXES LEAN TOWARD 65 TO 70 ACROSS CEN NY. A
LITTLE MORE SUN THIS AM FOR THE POCONO/CATSKILL REGION BUT CLOUDS THIS
AFTN WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER THE MAXES A TAD THERE...TOO.
A FEW SPRINKLES ARE APPROACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OUR FORECAST
AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. 09Z RUC HAS ITS VORT MAX MOVING
ACROSS PA THIS AFTN...SO CURRENT FCST POPS AND WORDING LOOK GOOD FOR
THIS AFTN. REST OF FORECAST LEFT UNCHANGED.
.BGM...NONE.
CHIARAMONTE
FXUS61 KALY 101337 COR ny
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
900 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 1999
ONLY PRECIP ACROSS THE CWFA CONTINUES TO BE A LONE TRW ACROSS SRN
WILLIAMSBURG CNTY PROBABLY BEING FUELED BY VERY WEAK FRONT & OUTFLOW
FROM EARLIER STORMS. SHOULD SEE A WEAKENING TREND W/ LOSS OF HEATING
& WILL LEAVE OUT OF ZFP UPDATE. OTHERWISE... NOTHING APPEARS UPSTREAM
IN EITHER SAT IMAGERY OR MODELS TO CREATE MORE THAN JUST SCT CLOUDS
FOR OUR AREA. WILL BE MORE OPTIMISTIC & GO MOSTLY CLEAR OVRNGT.
LATEST LAMP PROJECTIONS MATCH WELL W/ CURRENT OBS & GOING FCSTS SO NO
CHANGES THERE.
CWF: WINDS MAINLY SE ALONG THE CST TNGT. RUC POINTS TO A LGT S WIND
BY MORNING. AGAIN NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.
.ILM...NONE.
LGE
FXUS62 KMHX 110034 nc
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
900 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 1999
FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE INCLUDES TSRA THREAT AND TEMPS. LDS
AND UPSTREAM 88-D'S INDICATING SCT CONVECTION CONTINUING TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS W DAKS AND SE SASK IN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
WAA. LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN LINE WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF DUAL JET STRUCTURE FROM 00Z RUC. UPPER JET CORE SHIFTS EAST
OVERNIGHT. WITH H8 LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING AND SHIFTING EAST AS
WELL AS H8 WAA AND THETA-E RIDGE FEEL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EAST WHILE ENCOUNTERING INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOIST IN WAKE
OF MID LEVEL RIDGE. AS A RESULT WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS BUT TRY TO FINE TUNE TIMING SLIGHTLY. CURRENT TEMP
FCST SEEMS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH DEW POINTS IN LOWER 60S AND INCREASED
LOW LEVEL WAA. NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.
.FGF...NONE.
VOELKER
FXUS63 KBIS 102024 nd
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
925 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 1999
LATEST RUC AND 18Z ETA AGREE ON DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT
BUT BOTH HAVE SWLY INSTEAD OF SELY FLOW LIKE LAST NIGHT. KGSP VWP
CURRENTLY HAS SWLY TO NWLY FLOW. SAT PIX SHOW FEW IF ANY CLOUDS ATTM
AND EXPECT LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. MOST AREAS ALREADY HAVE CLEAR FCST
AND WILL TREND THAT WAY IN THE REST OF THE ZONES. TEMPS LOOK GOOD.
NO CHANGES THERE.
.GSP...NONE.
RWH
FXUS62 KCHS 110058 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
859 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 1999
FRONT LINGERING ACROSS NRN S CAROLINA HAS AN IMPRESSIVE SFC DEW POINT
GRADIENT THIS EVENING BUT ONLY WEAK MCON. 00Z FSL MAPS CHS SOUNDING
PLOT INDICATES LOTS OF DRY WARM AIR ALF AND CAPPED POSITIVE ENERGY.
SAV RAOB IS SIMILAR...BUT WITH A LITTLE LESS OF A LOW LEVEL CAP.
LOW LEVEL GEOSTROPHIC VORTICITY MAXIMA DID LITTLE TO ASSIST ISOLD
CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND THIS FEATURE APPEARS INNOCUOUS OVERNIGHT. OF
MORE CONCERN WOULD BE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE NW FLOW ALF...BUT
18Z ETA AND LATEST RUC KEEP THIS ENERGY TO THE N OF OUR AREA. OF
COURSE WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS BEFORE RELEASE...BUT QUIET WX SHOULD
PREVAIL IN THE SHORT TERM. OTHERWISE...ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP/WINDS WILL
BE VERY MINOR AND SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGH TIDE TONIGHT ROSE TO AN ASTOUNDING 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL AT CHS AND
THERE IS UP TO 3 FT OF WATER ON SOME DOWNTOWN STREETS. WILL BRIEF
MID SHIFT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SHLW COASTAL FLOODING ON WED NIGHT
TIDE. FT PULASKI HIGH TIDE REMAINED BELOW 9 FT.
CWF...WINDS AT THE BUOYS STARTING TO PICK UP. ALREADY 17 KTS AT
GRAYS REEF...BUT ONLY 10 KTS AT 40 MILE. XPCT WNDS TO PICK UP ON SC
WATERS. PLAN ON INCRG WNDS AT 15-20 KTS ON GA WATERS OUT TO 20 NM
AND MENTION SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION. WL ADD THIS HEADLINE TO 20-
50 NM FCST AS WELL. PLAN ON REMOVING MENTION OF PCPN IN ALL XCPT FOR
GA 20-50 NM FCST.
.CHS...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
RVT/EVT
FXUS62 KCAE 110055 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG SC
220 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 1999
WEAK SFC LOW EVIDENT ON VIS SATL IMAGERY BETWEEN GSP AND CAE...AND
APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTH. 15Z RUC SHOWS A HINT OF A WEAK
CIRCULATION IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION. 12Z ETA ACTUALLY SHOWS A LOW
IN THE UPSTATE VICINITY AND MOVES IT SLOWLY EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW
CENTER THROUGH TONIGHT...SO ERN PARTS OF CWA MAY HAVE CLOUDS HANGING
ON LONGER TONIGHT.
UPPER JET TO EXTEND FROM UPR MISS VALLEY INTO NC...BUT THIS AREA UNDER
UNFAVORABLE (FOR LIFT) RIGHT EXIT REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. WV LOOP
SHOWS DRYING/SUBSIDENCE NOSING INTO NC ATTM. SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED
UPR SUPPORT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AND THROUGH
NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WEAK SPOKES
OF ENERGY AND COLD TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS CWA IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW...MEAN RH'S QUITE LOW. IT'S A LITTLE DICY THOUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTN/EVENING ACROSS ERN SECTIONS AS TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT
LAKES SYSTEM CATCHES UP TO LEE TROUGH WHICH DEVELOPS TONIGHT. DECENT
1000-850 MOIST CONVERGENCE SHOULD OCCUR WED AND AS STEEPER LAPSE
RATES MOVE ACROSS...COULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT...DUE TO DRYNESS OF ATMOSPHERE...DO NOT
THINK CHANCES ARE MORE THAN 20 PERCENT...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF ZONES.
UPR RIDGE BUILDS EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW
MORE DEGREES WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WITH 20 C TEMPS
ALIGNS ITSELF OVER AREA. DOWNSLOPE WINDS BEHIND LEE TROUGH WILL ALSO
HELP BOOST TEMPS. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS SLIDE IN BEHIND PASSAGE
OF TROUGH WED NIGHT...BUT SIGNIFICANT DRYING/COOLING REMAINS WELL
NORTH. AS TROUGH HANGS UP ALONG CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY...MAY HAVE A
SLIGHT NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND...SO TEMPS WILL PROBABLY
EITHER BE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THURSDAY. EITHER WAY IT
REMAINS ABOVE NORMAL.
IN THE EXTENDED...WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY. MRF CONSISTENT WITH SFC AND
UPR TROUGH...ALONG WITH SOME MOIST INCREASE (ALTHOUGH NOT
EXTRAORDINARY) APPROACHING AREA SAT AFTN AND LINGERS ACROSS CWA
SUNDAY. WILL INCLUDE CHC AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSTMS FOR SAT AND SUN.
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
AVL 65/88/65/87 0000
CLT 69/93/70/93 0200
GSP 71/95/70/94 0000
.GSP...NONE.
MOYER
FXUS62 KCAE 101817 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE/SPARTANBURG, SC
1022 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 1999
SMALL SFC LOW EXISTS JUST S CWA VCNTY AGS. ILL-DEFINED E/W FNTL
BNDRY/TROF EXTENDS THRU LOW. WK SFC MSTR CNVGNC IS OVR EXTREM NE GA AND
JUST TO NE AND E OF SFC LOW. RUC INDCTS WK SHORT WV TROF WILL MOVE ACRS
AREA DURING NEXT FEW HRS. HWVR...SIG INSTBLTY DOES NOT EXIST IN MRNG
SOUNDINGS AND SHRT WV TROF SHUD BE MOVG E OF CWA BY MID TO LATE AFTN.
THUS...WILL NOT ADD POPS TO FCST. LOW CLDS HAVE BEEN RATHER PERSISTENT
OVR SC PORTION OF CWA THIS MRNG...BUT THEY ARE NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF
DISSIPATING. WILL PRBLY LEAVE TEMPS AS THEY ARE...BUT MIGHT OPT TO
SHADE A FEW DEGS FM MAX IN COUNTIES WHERE CLDS LOOK LIKE THEY MIGHT
LINGER.
.GSP...NONE.
LGL
FXUS62 KCHS 101407 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1006 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 1999
MESO AND RUC SOLN ON FRONT DIFFER. RUC KEEPS THE FRONT SOUTH AND
PUSHES IT TO NR NBC BY MID AFTERNOON AS A S/W MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT. THE MESO PUSHES THE FRONT NORTH/WASHES IT OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MESO HAS S/W ENERGY CLOSE TO THE SAME LOCATION AS THE RUC
HOWEVER WEAKER. THE RUC DOES APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
PRECIP FIELD THIS AM.
ANOTHER INTERESTING FCST. CLOUDINESS THIS AM HAS SLOWED HEATING BUT
WL TAKE LITTLE INSOLATION TO BOOST TEMPS. CONCERNED HOWEVER WITH
AREAS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA...IF RUC VERIFIES. MSAS SHOWS A SFC
LOW JUST NW OF AGS. CANNOT FIND THE S/W AT ALL ON WATER VAPOR IMG.
SO...LEAN ON RUC AND WL MAKE SOME CHNGS TO PACKAGE. WL DROP HEAT
ADVISORY. GA ATTM APPEARS WL HAVE BETTER SUN THOUGH CLOUDINESS IS
STRETCHING EAST. WL INCR MENTION OF CLOUDS AS WELL AND DROP TEMPS A
NOTCH.
CWF...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS GIVE MORE OF A WEST DIRECTION ON WINDS.
WILL START THE WINDS OFF FROM THE WEST. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
EXPECTED.
.CHS...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
JCI/JH
FXUS62 KCAE 101344 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
940 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 1999
SATPIX SHOW ST OVR MUCH OF SC WITH CLR SKYS OVR CSRA. 12Z SFC ANAL HAS
WK SFC LOW OVR AGS WITH E/W FNTL BNDRY. ST RMNS ON N SIDE OF CDFNT WITH
WK NE LOW LVL FLO OVR AREA. RUC HAS GD S/WV OVR NRN GA MOVG E INTO CSRA
AND LWR MIDLNDS THIS AFTN THEN TO SE CST BY EVE. LOW LVL MSTR FLDS KP ST
OVR CNTRL AND NRN MIDLNDS AND RMNDR OF ERN SC INTO MID TO LT AFTN. WL HV
TO CUT TEMPS FOR CAE TO CTF PTN OF FCST AREA. RUC SPITS OUT .14 INCHES
AT CAE AT 18Z BUT AMS ON N SIDE OF CDFNT VRY SHALLOW AND DO NOT EPXT ANY
SIG INDUCEMNT WITH APCHG S/WV TO PUT IN ANY POPS. WL KP SKYS MSTLY CLDY
IN CNTRL/NRN CWA BCMG PTLY CLDY BY LT AFTN/EVE. MSTLY SUNNY CSRA.
.CAE...NONE.
SJN
FXUS62 KCAE 101035 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD...UPDATED
848 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 1999
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA...WHILE
FIRST MOVING TOWARD FORECAST AREA...HAVE BEGUN TO TURN MORE EAST.
WSR-88D AT LNX SHOWS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE ALSO HAVE BEGUN TO SHIFT MORE EAST. LAST FEW
PICTURES SHOW BAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF
FORECAST AREA.
21Z RUC SHOWS LOW LEVEL JET STREAM DEVELOPING TONIGHT WITH EASTERN
EDGE OF CORE OVER WESTERN ZONES OF FORECAST AREA BY 09Z. 21Z RUC
ALSO INDICATES 850 MB MOISTURE DOES NOT REACH FORECAST AREA BY 09Z.
ATTM EXPECT TO AMEND TO ADJUST FOR CLOUD COVER IN WESTERN ZONES. MAY ALSO
MENTION LOW POP PRECIPITATION IN A FEW MORE ZONES IN WESTERN PART OF
FORECAST AREA.
DEWPOINTS OVER EASTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA REMAIN ABOVE FORECAST
LOW TEMPERATURES. RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS POTENTIAL TO OFFSET PART
OF THIS...BUT SURFACE ANALYSIS DOES NOT INDICATE DRIER AIR WILL BE
ADVECTED INTO THIS AREA TONIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES
WINDS SHOULD BE ADJUSTED OVER PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.
.FSD...NONE
BLOOM
FXUS63 KUNR 102054 sd
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
833 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 1999
MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WHILE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM ARKLATEX AND LOUISIANA GULF COAST CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. SURFACE TRENDS OF LAST
FEW DAYS PERSIST...ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT INCREASE TO A SOUTHEAST FLOW
WAS NOTED THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHTLY LOWER PRESSURES IN THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST. AS WITH THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS...EXPECT GRADIENT TO RELAX OVERNIGHT ON A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT 850 MB. THIS WILL KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION TO
A MINIMUM AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z RUC. IN ADDITION...HIGH CLOUDINESS
WILL INHIBIT SOME LOW CLOUD FORMATION. SO...WILL SKY COVER FAIR FOR
TONIGHT AND MAINTAIN BRIEF MENTIONS OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE AND WIND TRENDS SIMILAR FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND MAY MAKE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THESE FORECASTS FOR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING EWX CWA FORECASTS. SYN..04/MESO..18.
.EWX...NONE.
FXUS64 KFWD 110115 AMD tx
COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
230 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 1999
SHORT-TERM...MCV NR LA CST THIS AFTN NOT RESOLVED TOO WELL BY
MODELS. ETA PERHAPS THE BEST. THE CONVECTION S OF THIS MCV BEST
HANDLED BY NGM IN ITS VOT FIELD. 12Z ETA/NGM MODEL X-SCTNS SHOW DIF
VOT ADVCTN TNGT WITH 18Z RUC DEPICTING SOME MID/HIGH LVL MSTR INCR.
WL OPT FOR MCLR EVE THEN CONSIDERABLE HI CLDS. GUIDANCE TEMPS
REASONABLE SPCLY WITH CLDS.
LONG-TERM...WL USE PC SKY CHARACTER WITH PRESENCE OF SOME CI/CU AS
ATMOS REMAINS GNRLY DRY AND SUBSIDENT. AVN HINTS AT ANOTHER VOTMAX
WITH DIFF VOT ADVCTN LATER WED NGT AND THU WHICH MAY LEAD TO MORE
CI. MINOR WARMING/COOLING IN COLUMN DICTATES PERSISTENCE WRT TEMPS
THUS WL FOLLOW NGM/FAN/LAMP VALUES WHICH AGREE WITH ONE
ANOTHER.
EXTENDED...MRF INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE. HIGH PRES AND A SUBSIDENT
ATMOS WL CONT WITH CONVECTION FROM THE SERN STATES PROGRESSING SW
AND PRODUCING PERIODIC DEBRIS CLDNESS.
MARINE...DIURNAL WNDS WL CONT WITH NOCTURNAL LLVL JET DICTATING SCEC
FOR BAYS DURING NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. NOCTURNAL LLVL
JET IS STRONGEST WED NGT AND WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS 950MB LAPSE
RATES REMAIN FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AS PER THE ETA WHICH TYPICALLY
DEPICTS THIS BEST. A STRONGER PRES GRAD AND STRONG SEABREEZE
CIRCULATION DUE TO STRONG INSOLATION WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE.
PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
CRP EB 077/097 077/097 077 -0-
NGP EB 082/091 082/091 082 -0-
VCT EB 076/097 076/097 076 -0-
LRD EB 079/103 079/103 079 000
.CRP...NONE.
(SYN)...85/BB
(MESO)...73/ML
FXUS64 KHGX 101914 tx
UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH
915 PM MDT TUE AUG 10 1999
SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS UTAH TONIGHT
BRINGING MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS MOVING NORTHWARD
INTO MOST OF UTAH. AS A RESULT OF THE MOISTURE AND THE RAPID SPEED
OF THE AIR MASS, PERIODS OF RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AND SHORT LIVED.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF OVER HALF AN INCH IN 30 MINUTES WERE REPORTED IN
THE CEDAR CITY AREA...SO LOCAL HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECED THROUGH THE
NIGHT. FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
MAY OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. BECAUSE THESE STORMS
ARE MOVING QUICKLY, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS
TIME.
CELLS ALONG THE UTAH/NEVADA BORDER AND IN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST
AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WASATCH FRONT OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY, WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHOWERS.
THE RUC AND ETA CONTINUE TO MOVE A BROADENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
INTO UTAH WITH GOOD VORTICITY ADVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THE
TROUGH AXIS REACHING THE STATE MIDDAY. AIRMASS BEGINS TO DRY BY 18Z
BUT REMAINS UNSTABLE, SO A CHANCE FOR LINGERING SHOWERS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON REMAINS.
CURRENT ZONES OK...NO UPDATES PLANNED.
SLC 7612 CDC 6111 HANSEN/BURCH
.SLC...NONE.
FXUS65 KSLC 102138 COR ut
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
903 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 1999
REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS SHOW WDLY SCT SHRA TRACKING ACRS NERN WVA THIS
EVE MAINLY NORTH OF THE RNK CWA. INITIAL VORT LOBE/JET MAX ASSOCD WITH
THIS ACTIVITY NOW ACROSS WVA/PA SHOULD PASS INTO SE VA OVRNGT AND
OFF THE CAROLINAS EARLY WED PER LATEST RUC/MESO-ETA. GIVEN LOSS OF
HEATING AND BEST UPR SUPPORT PASSING NORTH...EXPECT MAJ OF SHRA TO
FADE AFTER SUNSET WITH MOST RESIDU ACTION REMAINING TO OUR
NORTH/WEST. MAY NEED TO WATCH FAR NRN/ERN PIEDMONT LATER WHERE GRAD
OF HIER DEWPTS PREVAILS AND SOME THETA CNVRGNC DVLPS LATE. OTRW
OTHER THAN FOR AN ISOLD SHRA NW TIER CTYS EARLY...APRS CAP ALF AND
LACK OF FOCUS TO LIMIT CHCS EVEN WITH SOME INSTAB SEEN IN EVE RAOBS.
WILL MONITIOR FOR PSBL MENTION OF ISOLD CVRG IN ZFP BEFORE RELEASE
OTRW WILL TREND TWD PC NORTH TO MNLY CLR FAR SOUTH OVRNGT. TEMPS
SLOW TO FALL WITH HIER DEWPTS THIS EVE BUT GNRLY LOOK ON TRACK WITH
FCST LOWS AND EXPECT FEW CHANGES.
.RNK...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
JH
FXUS61 KAKQ 101920 va
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
245 AM MDT WED AUG 11 1999
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO OPEN UP TO
NORTHERLY BRANCH OF JET AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA LATER TODAY.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE LOW SPAWNING CONVECTION
OVER UTAH AND THIS ENERGY EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FORECAST AREA AROUND
18Z. ON WATER VAPOR RIDGE AXIS HAS ALREADY MOVED TO SOUTHEAST MONTANA
AND CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AS
DYNAMICS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. SURFACE/850 MB LOW NEAR KSHR EXPECTED
TO REACH WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY 18Z AND RUC QUICKLY BRINGS UPSLOPE LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. PROBLEMS OF DAY ARE STRENGTH
OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS INITIALLY LIMITING
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. DEW POINTS IN GGW HAVE INCREASED INTO THE 60S
ALREADY AND EXPECT EASTERN MONTANA WILL GET INTO THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS
AFTER SUNRISE. FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WILL SPREAD ACROSS FORECAST AREA
AROUND NOON AND EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SHEAR PROFILES BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE LATER IN DAY BUT LAPSE RATES AND CAPES ARE NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE. HOWEVER...MESOETA HINTS AT ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION
DEVLOPING AND DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO LOOK FOR ANY 12Z RUN ADJUSTMENTS
FOR A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. FORECAST TEMPS LOOK PRETTY GOOD AS
700 MB TEMPS SUPPORT MAXES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AS MOISTURE DEEPENS IN ATMOSPHERE AND AIRMASS
REMAINS UNSTABLE. FOR THURSDAY EXPECT UPSLOPE FLOW TO BE A FACTOR
THOUGH AVIATION BUILDS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MONTANA.
EXTENDED...A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVES FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS
REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. GENERALLY COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH
PRECIPITATION THREATS EACH DAY.
BORSUM
BIL EB 085/060 078/059 082 59343
LVM .. 084/055 078/... ... 59364
HDN .. 087/058 079/... ... 59343
MLS .. 087/060 078/058 ... 59464
4BQ .. 086/060 076/... ... 59464
BHK .. 085/058 075/... ... 59464
SHR EB 083/055 076/052 080 59343
FXUS65 KGGW 110245 mt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
315 AM EDT WED AUG 11 1999
ALL MODELS...FROM RUC ON UP...CONTINUE TO BRING DRY AIR INTO REGION
WITH NEXT FRONT. SEVERAL FAST MOVING VORT MAXES MOVE THROUGH NW
FLOW OVER NC/VA BUT LACK OF MOISTURE PRECLUDES PRECIPITATION OVER FA
THIS PERIOD. WEAK FRONT MIGHT MAKE IT ACROSS MOUNTAINS WITH CURRENT
FLOW ALOFT BUT DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVENT ANY CHANCE OF COOLER AIR
ACROSS REGIONS. TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPE WARMING. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT COMBINATIONS IN EASTERN
ZONES AROUND CLT AREA AND TO THE SOUTH AROUND GREENWOOD WILL
BRIEFLY FLIRT WITH 105 HEAT INDEX VALUE BUT MARGINAL AND NO ADVISORY
TO BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. WILL HIGHLIGHT HEAT INDEX IN
ZONES...HOWEVER. POPS NIL. DELGADO
AVL 089/064/088/065 000
CLT 095/071/094/070 000
GSP 096/069/095/069 000
.GSP...NONE.
FXUS62 KCAE 110646 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1115 AM EDT WED AUG 11 1999
14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE FRONT RUNNING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. JUST A BIT MORE CLOUDINESS ALONG THE FRONT
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. LATEST MESOETA GUIDANCE
KEEPS US DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DESPITE THE FRONT. THE MESOETA SOUNDING
KEEPS A MID LEVEL CAP THROUGH 00Z SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION. HOWEVER
THE RUC INDICATES THAT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. THE LATEST LAPS AND MSAS
GRAPHICS ACTUALLY HAS THIS AREA THE MOST STABLE. AS A RESULT WILL LEAN
TOWARD KEEPING US DRY AND CAPPED ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THE SITUATION HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
AND SKY CONDITION ARE ON TRACK AND THEREFORE NO UPDATE AT THIS TIME.
.JKL...NONE
GREIF
FXUS63 KPAH 110805 COR ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
930 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 1999
DEWPOINT-WINDSHIFT BNDRY LINE (WEAK FRONT) AT 00Z WAS ONLY MOVING
SLOWLY SE AND WAS LOCATED JUST NE OF OHIO RIVER ACRSS S IN AND OH AT
00Z. SOME MOISTURE POOLING NOTED ALONG THE BNDRY...BUT MOISTURE AT ALL
LEVELS ACRSS THE AREA IS PRETTY SCARCE. FEW SHRA S/ONE OR TWO TSRA S
FIRED UP AN HOUR OR SO AGO OVER S IN AND NEAR CVG. 21Z RUC IS ABOUT THE
ONLY MODEL THAT PICKED UP ON THE ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.
SAT PIXS SHOWING A FEW CLOUDS DRIFTING ACRSS CWA OUT AHEAD OF THE WEAK
FRONT. AIRMASS OVERHEAD IS PRETTY DRY AND STABLE...SO NOT EXPECTING A
WHOLE LOT OF ANYTHING GOING ON TONIGHT. CURRENT TEMPS IN ZONE PACKAGE
MAY BE A TAD LOW. LAMP DATA TRENDS (METEOGRAMS-TIMES SERIES) THIS
EVENING CONTINUE TO SHOW THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT WARMER WITH EACH RUN
AND THIS SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE WITH SW FLOW AHEAD OF BOUNDARY AND
TEMPS ARE RUNNING SOME 6-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WHEN LOWS
GOT DOWN TO AROUND 60.
WILL WATCH TRENDS A FEW MINUTES LONGER...BUT MAY UPDATE AND TWEAK TEMPS
AND SKY COVER A TAD.
THANKS TO SDF FOR COORDINATION.
.JKL...NONE
HALL
ky
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1105 AM CDT WED AUG 11 1999
12Z SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AGAIN WITH CAPES AROUND 3000
J/KG AND PW'S NEAR 2.2 INCHES AT KSIL AND 2.4 INCHES AT KJAN. LOCAL
DOWNBURST CHECKLIST SHOWS MODERATE POTENTIAL TODAY...SO 30 OR 35 KT
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS MAY OCCUR. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO DAYS...THERE IS NO
SURFACE TROUGH AND MAJOR BLOWUP OF CONVECTION IN THE COASTAL
WATERS...PROBABLY DUE TO LESS UPPER DIFLUENCE. HOWEVER...W TO SW
SURFACE WIND MAY ALLOW A WEAK SEA BREEZE AND LAKE BREEZE FRONT TO
COME INTO PLAY. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE LOOPS AND THE RUC ANALYSIS
SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX MOVING SOUTH THROUGH SW MS. CANNOT
RULE OUT THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MORE CONCENTRATED
CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...DO NOT PLAN ON UPDATING CURRENT 40 TO 50 PERCENT
POPS...BUT WILL MENTION THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM
GUSTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. OBNOXIOUSLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WILL PRODUCE 105 DEGREE PLUS HEAT INDICES
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL COOL THINGS DOWN IN MOST AREAS.
.NEW...NONE.
LA...NONE
MS...NONE.
22
FXUS64 KSHV 111548 la
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON
1035 AM EDT WED AUG 11 1999
AFTER PICKING THRU THE RUC AND LATEST LAPS SURFACE DATA...HAVE OPTED
FOR A 20 POP FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MANY OPPOSING FACTORS WITH THIS.
POSITIVE: REASNBLE S/W APPROACHING FROM THE NW. DWPTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S EAST OF THE BLUE RDGE. MODFD SOUNDING HAS -5 LI AND 2000
CAPE. SAT IMGRY HAS CU FORMING IN WV AND WSTRN PA ASSOCTD WITH S/W.
SURF TROF OVR REGION.
NEGATIVE: LOW LVL WNDS OUT OF THE WEST (DOWNSLOPE) EXCPT SURF WINDS
WHICH ARE TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION TODAY. DROUGHT...IE
PERSISTENCE. RUC HAS NO CONVCTVE PRECIP OVR THE LWX CWA TODAY. MOS
HAS 9-10 POP OVR REGION TODAY.
BOTTOM LINE...I DON/T EXPECT IT HERE...BUT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
EITHER. SO...20 POP (SLIGHT CHC).
AFTER THE 10AM OBS...TEMPS LOOK GOOD EXCEPT I WILL RAISE A FEW IN
THE WEST WHERE DOWNSLOPE HAS TEMPS ALREADY 83-84 DEGS. WINDS WILL BE
SW TURNING W AROUND 10 MPH.
.LWX...NONE.
STRONG
FXUS61 KLWX 110619 md
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1125 AM EDT WED AUG 11 1999
CURRENT PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE TO
FRESHEN UP THE WORDING IN SOME OF OUR WIND FCSTS. 12Z RUC LOOKS TO
BE HANDLING THE FEATURES WELL THIS MORNING. EVENTHOUGH WE LOSE THE
CU AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES OUT...WE WILL KEEP THE PARTLY
SUNNY WORDING...AS DEBRIS CLOUD FROM MO/IA MCC AND STORMS FROM MN
MOVES OVER THE CWFA. TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE LOOKING GOOD AS WELL.
.APX...NONE.
LUTZ
FXUS63 KMQT 111455 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1054 AM EDT WED AUG 11 1999
MAIN FCST CONCERN FOR THE AFTN IS SHRA POTENTIAL FOR W HALF OF FA.
VIS/IR SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW CLOUDS QUICKLY STREAKING E
INTO UPPER MI. UPSTREAM...LARGE AREA OF SHRA/SCT TSRA HAVE BEEN
FIRING IN E ND/N MN IN REGION OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONV/WAA/
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS STRONG WAA AND CONV VERY EVIDENT ON MORNING
RAOB DATA. AT 850MB...KABR SOUNDING SHOWED TEMP OF 21C WITH SW WIND
AT 30 KNOTS WHILE KINL HAD TEMP OF 12C AND WNW WIND AT 25 KNOTS.
SHRA HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE E AWAY FROM MAIN
CONV/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGION.
SO CONCERNS FOR THE AFTN WILL BE PROGRESS OF SHRA TOWARD W FA AND
THEN AFFECT OF INCREASING/THICKENING CLOUDS ON HIGH TEMPS. 12Z RUC
SHOWS AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL JET AND RESULTANT WAA/CONV/ISENTROPIC LIFT
MAKING PROGRESS E THIS AFTN. THIS WILL PUT GENESIS REGION OF SHRA
INTO NE MN BY 00Z. AS THE SHRA MOVE E...THEY WILL DIMINISH BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE PROGRESS E INTO DRIER AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OVER FA.
EXPECT SHRA TO REACH W FA THIS AFTN...AFT 18Z FAR W AND 19Z
KEWEENAW. CURRENT FCST HAS AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON BRINGING SCT SHRA
INTO 4 W COUNTIES THIS AFTN. ATTM...WILL NOT EXTEND MENTION OF SHRA
FARTHER E AS EVENING TIMING APPEARS ON TRACK FOR CNTRL COUNTIES.
ACROSS CNTRL/E FA...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN IN
ADVANCE OF SHRA. ALTHOUGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN RISING NICELY THIS
MORNING...FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AND THICKENING CLOUD SHIELD WILL PUT THE
BRAKES ON TEMP RISE. WILL MAKE SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN A FEW
AREAS.
.MQT...NONE.
ROLFSON
FXUS63 KMQT 110946 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1015 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 1999
LATEST APX 88D SHOWING SHOWERS HAVE NOW DIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA... AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PUSH EASTWARD INTO LAKE HURON. LATEST RUC SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS... PROGGED TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE
WESTERN LAKE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. RUC MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY TIME SECTIONS SHOWING DECREASING
MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA... WHICH
MATCHES WELL WITH CURRENT STLT TRENDS.
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND CALMING WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT OVER NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN... WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND PATCHY FOG. FOR NORTHEAST LOWER AND EAST UPPER MICHIGAN...
DUE TO LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW... WILL KEEP
MENTION OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
.APX...NONE.
SWR
FXUS63 KGRR 110224 mi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
948 AM EDT WED AUG 11 1999
WL CONT HEAT ADVISORY THRU THE AFTERNOON. XPCT HEAT INDICES 105 TO
110 ACROSS FA INTO EARLY EVE.
HIGH TIDE DEPARTURES HAVE PLAGUED AREA DURING THIS TIDE CYCLE.
SOMEWHAT OF A MYSTERY AS TO THE CAUSAL FACTOR. WL HEADLINE ZONES AND
COASTAL FCSTS WITH SHALLOW CSTL FLOODING.
HEAT WL TURN UP A NOTCH THIS AFTERNOON WITHOUT CLD COVER TO INHIBIT
INSOLATION ACROSS THE FA. TEMPS AT H5 WL CREEP UP SOME TDY AND ONLY
XPCT ANY CONVECTION LIMITED TO SEAS BRZ. RUC AND MESO OUT OF PHASE
ON S/W ENERGY PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. WL ADJUST
WORDING FOR PRECIP TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND ONLY MENTION ISOLATED
SHRA/TSTMS. TEMPS LOOK IN LINE...RECORD AT CHS 98 AND 99 IN SAV...
HIGH TEMPS WL BE CLOSE TO THESE LEVELS.
CWF...FCST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY ANTICIPATE MINOR TWEAKS.
.CHS...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON SC040-042>045-047>050.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON GA087-088-089>101-114>119-137>141.
JCI
FXUS62 KCAE 111332 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
917 AM EDT WED AUG 11 1999
THE 09Z RUC SHOWED THE SHORTWAVE REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND KEEPS H7 TEMPERATURES 9 TO 10 IN THE NORTH PART OF
THE AREA AND 10 TO 11 ACROSS THE SOUTH PART. MODIFYING THE FFC AND GSO
RAOBS SHOWS THE ETA FORECAST OF MIDDLE 30S K-INDEX VALUES IN THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OVERDONE. EXPECT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TSTMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AT MOST DUE THE WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF MOISTURE. IF TSTMS DO DEVELOP THESE WOULD
PROBABLY OCCUR IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO A WEAK
BOUNDARY AND THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
.CAE...HEAT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-
035>038-041-GAZ040-063>065-077
RJL
FXUS62 KGSP 111305 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
903 AM EDT WED AUG 11 1999
NO CHANGES IN THE 10 AM PACKAGE EXPECTED. LATEST SOUNDINGS AND
CURRENT RUC SHOW STRONG CAP THAT WE AREN'T GOING TO BREAK TODAY. DRY
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WEEKEND WHEN TROUGH GIVES US A SHORT
RESPITE.
MRF PUTTING HIGH RIGHT ON TOP OF US NEXT WEEK. SO ANOTHER EXTENDED
HOT SPELL IN THE MAKING. NEW DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED THIS
AFTERNOON.
.GSP...NONE.
DICARLO
FXUS62 KCHS 111137 AMD sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1019 AM EDT WED AUG 11 1999
VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS SEEN ON VIS
PICS WITH LOTS OF BREAKS INDICATIVE OF DISORGANIZED WEATHER PATTERN
THIS MORNING. WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY NORTHERN VT. MORE CLOUDS IN
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR ROC AND
WEAK WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THOUGH
SFC CONVECTIVE HEATING MAY BREAK THAT UP A BIT. TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 70S PER CURRENT TEMPS AND SOUNDINGS.
RUC INDICATES UPPER LEVEL TROF ALREADY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA
WITH SLIGHT RIDGING UPSTREAM. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS INDICATED ON ALY SOUNDING MODIFIED
SFC T/TD OF 72/60 IS ENOUGH TO POP A SHOWER...MORE THAN THAT WOULD
RESULT IN THUNDER. RUC/03Z ETA INDICATE THAT WOULD NOT HAPPEN IN
NORTHERN SECTIONS AND NO THUNDER NORTH OF VT/MA BORDER AND NW TO ART
VCNTY WARM FRONT.
BEST CHANCE POPS SW AND S CLOSEST TO WARM FRONT FROM OGS SLK RUT
VSF. WILL LEAVE OUT ANY THUNDER AS INSTABILITY JUST NOT ENOUGH.
WORKZONES AVBL IN ADMBTV.
.BTV...NONE.
SISSON
FXUS61 KBTV 110536 vt
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1005 AM CDT TUE AUG 10 1999
DYING MCC OVER NE/IA TO BE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS UPDATE...ALONG WITH
ITS EFFECTS ON TEMPS.
SATELLITE AND RADAR TELLING STORY RIGHT NOW WITH DYING MCS OVER SW
IA AND ADJOINING STATES. CURRENT MOVEMENT TO ESE RIGHT ON TRACK AS
SYSTEM IS TRYING TO STAY IN BEST INFLOW. HOWEVER PROFILERS AND
MORNING 80H RAOB DATA SHOWING IT IS NOW MOVING EAST OF LLJ...OR
WHATS LEFT OF IT...AND LLJ IS VEERING NOW. SFC OBS TELLING MUCH
DRIER STORY THAN IS THE 88D...WITH ONLY MINOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SW
CWA. DYING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE. WILL HAVE TO UPDATE S/C AND
MAYBE SE CWA FOR WDLY SCT SHRA INTO THE MID AFTERNOON. LOOKING
WEST OF OMA...RADAR SHOWING CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN LNK AND
GRI. THIS MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THIS ACTIVITY
CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO WRN CWA. THIS MAY REQUIRE A LITTLE MORE
AREAL COVERAGE WORDING.
NORTH OF I-80...IT LOOKS LIKE DRY WX THRU THE AFTERNOON.
FINALLY...CLOUDS AND COLD POOL TO MAKE TEMP FCSTS A BIT TOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST SAT PICS INDICATING A FAST THINNING OVER NRN
CWA. WARMEST TEMPS COULD VERY WELL BE UP THERE. MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM AT ALL...HOWEVER...QUICK GLANCE AT 12Z RUC
DOES SHOW THE COLD POOL AT THE SFC. WILL BUMP TEMPS DOWN AT LEAST A
CAT...MAYBE A CAT AND ONE HALF.
.DSM...NONE
SEARCY
FXUS63 KDMX 110822 ia
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1037 AM MDT (1137 AM CDT) WED AUG 11 1999
REMOVED MENTION OF MORNING FOG AND TWEAKED WINDS BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. LATEST CAPS DATA INDICATING INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING UP
OVER MY EASTERN CWA...IN LINE WITH SPC DAY1. RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
WINDS WILL STAY SOUTHEAST-EAST OUT THERE...WITH TROUGH LINE FURTHER
WEST. WINDS WEST OF THE LINE WILL BE SOUTHWEST-WEST. NO NEW FWC
GUIDANCE...BUT LAMP IN LINE WITH FORECAST. ALSO ADJUSTED SKYCOVER TO
BE MORE OPTIMISTIC WITH MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE.
.GLD...NONE.
DDT
FXUS63 KTOP 110845 ks
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1105 AM CDT WED AUG 11 1999
12Z SOUNDINGS ARE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AGAIN WITH CAPES AROUND 3000
J/KG AND PW'S NEAR 2.2 INCHES AT KSIL AND 2.4 INCHES AT KJAN. LOCAL
DOWNBURST CHECKLIST SHOWS MODERATE POTENTIAL TODAY...SO 30 OR 35 KT
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS MAY OCCUR. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO DAYS...THERE IS NO
SURFACE TROUGH AND MAJOR BLOWUP OF CONVECTION IN THE COASTAL
WATERS...PROBABLY DUE TO LESS UPPER DIFLUENCE. HOWEVER...W TO SW
SURFACE WIND MAY ALLOW A WEAK SEA BREEZE AND LAKE BREEZE FRONT TO
COME INTO PLAY. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE LOOPS AND THE RUC ANALYSIS
SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX MOVING SOUTH THROUGH SW MS. CANNOT
RULE OUT THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MORE CONCENTRATED
CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. AT
THIS TIME...DO NOT PLAN ON UPDATING CURRENT 40 TO 50 PERCENT
POPS...BUT WILL MENTION THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORM
GUSTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. OBNOXIOUSLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WILL PRODUCE 105 DEGREE PLUS HEAT INDICES
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL COOL THINGS DOWN IN MOST AREAS.
.NEW...NONE.
LA...NONE
MS...NONE.
22
FXUS64 KSHV 111548 la
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
3 PM CDT WED AUG 11 1999
...FORECAST CHALLENGES...CHC OF PRECIP/LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/TIMING OF
FNT/TEMPS
...SYNOPSIS...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS LO PRES OVR NW KS AND THE
PRIMARY SFC LO OVR NW SD. SFC DEWPOINTS WERE POOLED IN THE 70S NR
THESE LOWS AND S OF THE WRMFNT OVR NCNTL KS. THE RUC2 GRAPHICS HAS
WAA GREATEST N OF THE NRN PLNS WRMFNT...OVR ERN SD...THRU CNTRL
NEB...AND INTO CNTRL KS AND OK. CONVECTION HAS BEEN EXITING THE
CWFA AND IS JUST ABOUT TO MOVE OUT OF OUR FAR ERN COUNTIES. THE 18Z
RUC HAD THE STGR SHTWV OVR CNTRL IA...WITH ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES
IN SE SD AND WRN NEB.
...FCST...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS STABILIZED BEHIND THE MCS...YET WITH
THE CLEARING SKIES...HOT TEMPS AND POOLING WITH THE WRMFNT...THE
MESOETA HAS AN AXIS OF UNSTABLE AIR FM SCNTRL NE INTO KS. WITH THE
MAIN LO OVR WCNTL SD THE RUC EXTENDS THE TROF INTO CNTRL NEB WITH
THE WRMFNT OVR SE NEB. WITH HI PWS NR THE NEB/KS BORDER...THREAT OF
LOCALLY HVY RAIN. WILL CONSIDER WATCH OVR THE SW COUNTY WARNING
AREA DUE TO THE HVY RAIN THIS AM. FFG IS ONLY 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. AT
THIS TIME WILL MENTION LOCALLY HVY RAIN AND BRIEF EVE SHIFT TO
POTENTIAL. DUE TO THE CONTINUED WAA CHC FOR PRECIP THIS INTO THUR
AM.
MODELS TRACK THE SFC LO ACRS SRN SD AND INTO NRN IA THUR...CARVING
OUT AN UPR TROF WHICH WILL RESULT IN PRECIP CHCS THUR. COOLER TEMPS
FOR FRI WITH GOOD CAA
.OMA...NONE
ZAPOTOCNY
FXUS63 KLBF 111959 ne
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
232 PM CDT WED AUG 11 1999
FCST CONCERN CONT TO BE CHC OF MORE TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN AND TNGHT.
WHILE FRONTAL BNDRY AND SFC LEE TROF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST EASY TO
LOCATE...BNDRY OVER CNTRL KS NOT AS EVIDENT. THERE IS A WK LOW
JUST WEST OF HILL CITY WITH THE MAIN LOW IN WRN SDAK. OUTFLOW BNDRY
FROM THIS MRNG LOOKS TO BE LIFTING NE AND IS SITUATED FROM OLU TO
TOP. HIGHER INSTABILITY PRESENTLY IN NCNTRL KS AS SEEN ON
LAPS. WATER VAPOR IMAGE HAD ANOTHER SHORTWV APPCHG THE AREA FROM ERN
CO THIS MORNING AND WAS PICKED UP ON LATEST RUC MODEL...BUT NOT VERY
WELL ON PROFILER NETWORK. THIS SEEMS TO BE MOVING INTO WCNTRL NEB
ATTM WITH NOTHING POPPING YET WHICH MAY BE BECAUSE OF MORE STABLE
AIRMASS LEFT OVER FROM LINGERING CLOUDS IN THAT PART OF THE STATE.
PROFILERS DID SHOW A UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE AT RWD WHILE
VEERING STILL GOING ON AT FBY. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
DURING LATE AFTN/EVNG FOR POSSIBLE SVR IF SOMETHING DOES POP...ESP
ALONG THE LEE TROF.
MAIN QUESTION SEEMS TO BE HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL GO ON WITH WEAKER
SHORTWV AND POSSIBLE BNDRY IN KS SLIDING NWD COMPARED TO OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE NORTH WITH BETTER FORCING FROM MAIN TROF AND WELL
DEFINED BNDRY. ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED ITEMS...SFC TROF/COLD
FRONT TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TOWARDS MORNING...IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFT THIS EVNG/TNGHT...AND SUBTROPICAL PLUME HAS SHIFTED
EAST OVER THE AREA TO COMBINE WITH ALREADY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER.
ON THE DOWN SIDE...LLJ LOOKS TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SRN MN...
UPPER JET WOULD FAVOR THE DAKOTAS/MN AND MAIN FORCING MORE NORTH.
ALSO AIR MASS STRUGGLING TO RECOVER FROM OVERNIGHT MCS AS 2 PM TEMPS
ONLY IN UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S IN NEB CWA. WHILE IN KS CWA TEMPS VARY
FROM 99 AT HAYS TO 84 IN CNK.
WILL PROBABLY KEEP POPS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST AND MAY ADD MENTION OF
LOCALLY HVY RAIN. SOME AREAS RECEIVED OVER 2 INCHES LAST NIGHT...
RADAR EST 3-5...BUT WILL PASS ON ANY FF WATCH DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF
WHERE STORMS WILL BE. HOWEVER FFG VALUES SOMEWHAT LOW IN PARTS OF
CWA SO WILL ADVISE EVNG SHIFT.
THURS SEES THINGS DRY OUT AS FRONT PUSHES THRU RAPIDLY. IDEA OF
LOWERING TEMPS SEEMS TO BE IN LINE.
.GID...NONE.
EWALD
FXUS63 KOAX 111719 ne
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1210 PM CDT WED AUG 11 1999
UPDATED THE ZONES AND TEMP FCST TO REFLECT LATEST WX DVLPMNTS.
FIRST MCS MOVED TO THE EAST WITH RE-DEVELOPMENT OVER SCNTRL/SE NEB.
RUC 2 DATA WAS HELPFUL IN THE SHRTTRM FCST OF RE-DVLPMNT AS
WAA/INSTABILITY WAS GRTST IN THE GRI AREA ERLIER THIS AM. THE
LATEST RUC 2 DATA HAD THE BEST INSTABILITY OVR CNTRL KS WITH A
WRMFNT. MOISTURE BLYR MOCONV WAS OVR NW KS AND HI KINDICES AND PWS
WERE OVR CNTRL KS THRU CNTRL NEB. THE 15Z RUC CONTINUED TO SHOW TWO
SFC LOWS...ONE OVR KS MOVING N TO SCNTRL NEB AND THE MAIN LO IN WRN
SD BY 00Z. IN ADDITION...THE RUC HAS ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING INTO
CNTRL NEB THIS AFT WITH ANOTHER WAVE NR FSD. WOULD EXPECT TSRA TO
RE-DEVELOP AND FOCUS NR THE WRMFNT AND WITH THE BEST UVVS. WILL
CONTINUE CHC OF TSRA FOR TAF AND TON. LOCALLY HVY RAINS POSSIBLE
WITH HI PWS AND TRAINING OF TSRA.
.OMA...NONE
ZAPOTOCNY
FXUS63 KOAX 110852 ne
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR TYPO AT END OF MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
242 PM EDT WED AUG 11 1999
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, RUC AND OTHER SHORT TERM
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. FIRST HINT OF
RAIN IN THE MODELS IS FOR FRIDAY...BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH PROBS TO
MENTION IN THE ZONES. WITH THE DROUGHT STATEMENT BEING ISSUED
DON'T PLAN TO MENTION PRECIP UNTIL SIGNIFICANT POPS CAN BE
MENTIONED AND THAT IS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AFTER THAT MRF BRINGS NEW RDG OVER AREA NEXT WEEK. SO BRINGING BACK
DRY TERMINOLOGY ON MONDAY.
DWPTS IN 60S TODAY AND FWC KEEPS THINGS FAIRLY DRY WITH NRN TRAJ.
THIS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW THAT CRYSTALIZED 105 MARK
OVER ALL BUT EXTREME SRN PART OF CWA. NO ADVISORIES BUT WILL
HIGHLIGHT ZONES WHERE INDEX WILL GO ABOVE 100.
AVL 063/090/065/089 000
CLT 068/096/069/095 000
GSP 069/097/070/096 000
.GSP...NONE.
DICARLO
FXUS62 KGSP 111836 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
159 AM EDT FRI AUG 6 1999
UPDATING UPSTATE SC ZONES FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.
WILL MENTION HEAT INDEX ONLY IN ZONES THAT ALREADY HAVE IT
IN HEADLINE. RUC INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE FOR TOMORROW.
.GSP...NONE.
FXUS62 KCHS 111348 sc
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
315 PM EDT WED AUG 11 1999
AWIPS VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP INDCTD THAT CU HAD DEVELOPED MAINLY
ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. REGIONAL 88D IMAGE INDICATED A FEW SHOWERS IN
NRN WEST VIRGINIA AROUND BURNSVILLE AREA AND A CELL OR TWO IN
AMHERST. THIS PCPN WAS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE COLD
FRONT. BOTH MM5 SE AND RUC HINTED AT ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVE. QUESTION OF HOW FAR SOUTH TO BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WEST ? WE WILL BE KEEPING A LIGHT POP FOR SE
WV AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLAND THIS EVENING. DRY WX EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY INCREASES IN THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF RNK
CWA...MAY ADD 20 EVENING POP FOR THE PIEDMONT. SURFACE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE IT MARCH EAST. MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND PIVOT
ACROSS THE UPPER TROF. A WEAK FRONT WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE FLOW
AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD. HAVE A GUD EVENING.
.RNK...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
KK
FXUS61 KAKQ 111438 va