FXUS04 KWBC 260651 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 151 AM EST FRI NOV 26 2004 PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION VALID NOV 26/1200 UTC THRU NOV 27/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... ...CNTL U.S... MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PD WITH HANDLING OF PAC COLD FRONT PUSHING RAPIDLY ACRS THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY. UPR SUPPORT WILL REMAIN SPLIT ALONG THE FRONT WITH SATL SHOWING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS S/WV THRU THE SRN GT BASIN THAT WILL DROP INTO THE SRN PLANS FRI EVENING..WHILE FARTHER NORTH S/WV ENERGY OVER SWRN CANADA WILL DROP SEWD ACRS THE DAKOTAS. MODELS AGREE THAT NRN S/WV WILL HELP SUPPORT A DEEPENING SFC LOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NEWD TOWARD WITH BY SAT MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY AN EXPANDING AREA OF WAA PCPN. WHILE SYNOPTICALLY..THE GFS SOLN IS PREFERRED GIVEN ITS BETTER INITIALIZATION AND CONTINUITY...MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO ITS QPF. THE GFS LOOKED A LITTLE HEAVY WITH AMOUNTS ACRS NE NEB AND NW IA WHERE IT WRINGS OUT SOME .50 TO 1 INCH AMOUNTS IN AREA OF MODEST 85H CONVERGENCE..BUT THE FACT THAT THE BEST LOW LEVEL JET AND PWS ARE FARTHER EAST..SUGGESTS THESE AMOUNTS MAY BE OVERDONE. FARTHER SOUTH...AIRMASS INITIALLY IS QUITE DRY OVER THE SRN PLAINS THOUGH 1 INCH PWS LINGER RIGHT OFF THE TX COAST AND MODELS DO ALLOW SOME 1.25 INCH PWS TO BUILD INTO THE LOW MS VALLEY FRI NIGHT AHEAD OF SRN STREAM S/WV. WITH LOW LEVEL JET FCST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KTS ALONG WITH DECENT PVA ASSOCD WITH THE S/WV ITSELF..SUSPECT THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AREA OF SHWRS AND EMBDD TSTMS DVLPG ACRS ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRI NIGHT. THOUGH SYSTEM WILL BE A FAST MOVER THINK THE GFS IS TOO DRY ACRS THIS REGION. ...WEST COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... SOME RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WITH NW FLOW..MOST OF WHICH SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME .25 INCH LIQUID AMOUNTS OCCUR ACRS THE SAN JUANS OF SRN CO AS QUICK MOVING S/WV IMPULSE TRACKS ACRS THE AREA DURING THE MRNG HOURS. NEXT SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF UPSTREAM ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT COASTAL AREAS OF NRN CA FRI EVE..WHILE A WEAK SYSTEM DROPPING SEWD ALONG THE COAST OF BC WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF COASTAL SHOWERS AND INLAND SNOWS OVER WA FRI NIGHT. CA SYSTEM IS FCST TO AMPLIFY TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST AND THUS WILL HAVE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO BACK FLOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT. THUS MAIN IMPACT HERE WILL BE OVER THE HIER ELEVS..PARTICULARLY THE NRN/CNTL SIERRAS. DID NOT DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MODELS HERE. ACRS THE NW..USED A MODEL BLEND ADJUSTED TO TOPOGRAPHY. SULLIVAN GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 27/12Z 0.01 498653 492650 484657 477664 474673 472681 474688 476693 481699 485699 489696 493688 496683 497680 498669 499665 498658 498653 0.01 542198 540190 537184 534177 531170 528164 525161 521157 518155 514155 511157 508161 501159 494159 484156 478151 474146 475145 481146 485149 491150 494149 494143 492136 488130 483126 477124 473123 469124 466128 463127 460125 457126 452130 447141 443142 439140 436142 434150 435158 438163 440166 443170 448180 454184 457184 460180 459173 460171 464171 469171 473170 478173 479177 481179 485183 489188 492194 493199 489197 486196 480197 470200 467203 462205 459204 456207 454210 443211 439214 435217 430219 428221 427218 428203 431185 432176 433171 432166 430161 427155 425150 423146 416136 413134 410133 403134 398135 393139 391143 389151 389159 387167 386177 393187 395193 394196 392196 386194 382190 372184 369184 366185 364189 376204 379210 383214 387216 392220 395223 393225 383221 378219 374214 368211 365208 362205 360203 357203 353207 353210 358219 361224 367229 376235 383241 390244 397245 406248 412248 416246 419243 421239 420235 417231 416227 419225 423223 424221 426223 429227 433231 436233 435234 431237 426240 425243 428246 431249 438252 448254 459253 480264 488270 496279 503286 508291 512290 523258 521252 519247 517242 515234 513228 510223 508220 505215 502210 501205 504201 507201 511203 514209 517214 520217 525222 528225 533229 0.01 525938 524928 523923 519917 516912 509907 502902 497903 494905 492911 490918 488925 489934 496942 503948 512955 515956 518958 521957 523952 524943 525938 0.01 485853 482830 478817 475804 471791 467783 463774 459767 454761 451758 448756 445755 441756 439752 436747 431744 426748 424757 425765 422781 422791 426798 424805 420812 411823 400835 394841 388844 375855 363865 356869 353872 339880 334882 331886 326890 320894 316897 311902 304906 295915 287925 284932 278938 274942 271946 269950 270954 273961 271965 268970 267974 269978 275981 280981 284979 290975 295971 302968 309965 315963 323961 331957 358948 364948 371952 380959 390971 393974 394978 394982 391986 387993 386999 398997 410999 417002 424004 432007 438010 440011 442015 441020 437020 432021 428023 423029 418033 415034 412037 407045 402048 395050 389049 389057 384052 382050 378047 366047 359049 356051 355054 358061 361061 353062 349062 346064 355069 352072 351077 356077 358075 362074 366075 369080 372086 374096 375099 379100 385096 391091 398089 402083 405080 408079 413079 417077 424072 430071 435076 439076 444078 450081 453081 454079 453068 453064 455063 459064 461068 465074 475085 487098 492101 497102 499098 501093 502087 499077 497068 493059 487043 480025 477018 478008 483989 482976 480966 479960 478952 477938 485903 486891 487878 486861 485853 0.01 474111 474107 473105 469101 459097 454092 452090 449090 435089 426086 418095 411095 406094 403100 395106 392109 386112 379117 377122 377126 379129 382129 387126 391124 397122 406126 410122 417124 421127 423129 426128 434121 438119 441122 448125 452122 455117 459115 462115 469116 473112 474111 0.01 449204 449200 448197 447195 446193 445191 444186 444183 441185 440186 438187 437189 435193 437196 437197 439201 439202 440206 441207 444209 446207 447207 449204 0.01 442231 441230 438229 436230 437233 441232 442231 0.01 379061 378058 377057 375056 372055 369055 367057 366058 367058 369059 372061 375061 378062 379061 0.25 533215 535211 534205 532200 529194 526189 524185 521182 515178 511180 512185 515190 517196 519203 521208 525212 529215 533215 0.25 506277 504267 500260 496254 492247 484241 480235 478231 473231 468235 468240 471244 473251 477254 482255 490259 495266 500272 502276 505278 506277 0.25 503238 500230 498223 495212 491211 488211 485209 481207 478208 473211 470214 470216 474218 478219 482220 487220 491223 492226 496236 498238 500240 502239 503238 0.25 466879 462855 459844 454836 450833 445832 442833 439835 433841 429849 427856 422872 419879 413885 408889 402893 397898 394902 394907 398909 402909 408909 414911 420915 424922 425934 425942 424953 424959 426965 429967 433966 438962 443961 445962 455976 456978 458980 460977 463967 465949 469931 469922 469909 467890 466879 0.25 465239 464235 461234 458234 455234 454235 452239 454242 457242 460243 462242 463239 465239 0.25 451222 451221 449218 446218 442219 444224 445224 446224 448224 451222 451222 0.25 407221 409218 408215 405212 400210 397211 394208 392205 388201 384198 381197 379199 382204 385207 388209 394211 396211 399215 401218 404221 407221 0.25 374901 374893 373890 369889 365888 358890 347895 334901 323906 313913 304920 300930 299935 298938 295940 291943 288946 283950 282956 285961 287962 290962 300959 307957 312954 321948 332942 337939 340935 343931 349930 354929 358926 367918 371914 373909 374901 0.25 382079 382075 381072 378069 377068 375067 374065 372064 369064 368065 369066 370068 372072 372073 373075 374079 375082 375083 378084 379083 381081 382079 0.50 478243 478241 477238 476237 475238 475239 477243 477245 478243 0.50 460920 460910 459899 456878 453869 451866 449864 444866 440870 433881 428893 427898 428903 431912 432922 433932 433937 434944 438946 441945 449944 452943 455940 457934 459927 460920 0.50 363901 363897 359897 351901 346903 338907 332910 326914 322919 328921 334919 340918 347913 353910 358906 363901 0.50 298950 296950 294950 292951 294952 297952 298950 $$