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000
FXUS04 KWBC 130953
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
552 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2009
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAR 13/1200 UTC THRU MAR 16/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1...
UPDATED...THE 0600 UTC NCEP RUNS AS WELL AS THE 0000 UTC ECMWF AND
CMC MODELS CONTD TO OFFER DIFFERING QPF SOLUTIONS OVER THE SOUTH.
A VERY SLIGHT NWD TREND WAS NOTED IN THE GFS AND NAM. FOR THE
MOST PART..THE DIFFERENCES BTWN THE FINAL AND PRELIM DAY1 QPF
REFLECTED CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
...SRN STATES...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS...MODEL QPF CONTINUITY
LEAVES A LOT TO BE DESIRED WITH SOME SGFNT DIFFERENCES NOTED ON
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE QPF IN ANY GIVEN 6HR PD.
FORTUNATELY..ALL THE MODELS INDC A SGFNT PCPN EVENT FOR THE LWR MS
AND TN VLYS WITH SOME SMALL LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES NOTED. HAVE
LITTLE ARGUMENT WITH THEIR HEAVY TOTALS THERE GIVEN WHAT SHOULD BE
HI PW AVBLTY..STGLY DIV FLOW ALOFT AND FVBL ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG
AN AXIS OF STRONG BAROCLINICITY LYING ACROSS THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...THEY DIFFER SGFNTLY ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE
INITIATION OF THE EVENT OVR ERN/CNTRL TX. THE GFS IS AT ODDS WITH
MOST GUIDANCE IN SUGGESTING LESSER PCPN AMTS THERE AND BELIEVE TO
SOME EXTENT IT IS IN ERROR AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE FEEDBACK ISSUES
BRINGS THE BEST LLVL MSTR CNVGNC TOO QUICKLY EWD. THE NAM AND THE
GEM REGIONAL ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS PCPN TOTALS OVR
CNTRL/ERN TX EARLY IN THE PD AND BASED ON THE AXIS OF PWS FCST TO
BE IMPINGING ON THAT AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PD AS WELL AS
THE FVBL DIV ALOFT ASOCTD WITH A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE INDCTD IN
ALL GUIDANCE..WILL LEAN TOWARDS THERE HEAVIER TOTALS THERE. ALSO
NOTED IS THAT THE QPF ECMWF IS FARTHER NORTH THAN MOST OTHER
GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN A BIAS NOTED IN THAT MODELS QPF OVR THE
PAST 36 HOURS. SO FOR NOW WILL USE A NAM/GEM REGIONAL BLEND OVR
MUCH OF THE FCST OVR THE SRN STATES THOUGH WILL ADD TO THE TOTALS
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NWRN/CNTRL GULF COAST GIVEN THE IMMEDIATE
ACCESS TO GULF MSTR THERE.
...SRN ROCKIES EWD TO THE SRN PLAINS...
MODELS WHILE AGAIN DIFFERING ON DETAILS ALL MAINTAIN AND/OR DVLP
SHWRS FM THE SRN ROCKIES EWD INTO THE SRN HI PLAINS WHERE LOW TO
MID LVL MSTR CNVGNC WILL CONTINUE IN ASOCTN WITH A GRADUALLY
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROF. STAYED RELATIVELY CONSERVATIVE WITH
TOTALS HERE GIVEN SGFNT MODEL QPF DIFFERENCES WITH PLACEMENT
THOUGH EXPECT BEST ACTVTY ACROSS NRN NM INTO THE ADJACENT HI
PLAINS WHERE BEST MID LVL DEFORMATION ZONE SHOULD RESIDE.
DAYS 2 AND 3...
...SRN PLAINS EWD THRU THE GULF CST STATES AND INTO THE SRN MID
ATLC REGION...
EMBEDDED UPPER DYNAMICS ALONG AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH...
BASED OVER MEXICO INTO THE SRN PLAINS... WILL COME OUT INTO THE
MOISTURE LADED SOUTH IN TWO ENTITIES... BASICALLY ONE ON SAT AND
ANOTHER ON SUN. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF
SPREAD ON THESE DREADED SHORT WAVE SMALL SCALE IMPULSES... WHICH
SHOULD FLOURISH WITH THE AVAILABLE LL MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND BROAD
SWRLY UPPER DIFFLUENCE. ON SAT... EXPECT A SURFACE WAVE TO
ORGANIZE OVER NRN MS/AL AND SHIFT TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS...
WHILE THE UPPER DYNAMICS LIFT FROM THE LWR MS VLY INTO THE OH VLY.
THE BIG QUESTION IS NOT NECESSARILY THE HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED
ALONG THE POLAR FRONT OVER THE SOUTH AND LIGHTER PRECIP DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATL REGION BUT HOW MUCH LL MOISTURE REALLY
REACHES UP INTO THE OH VLY TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LEVEL
DYNAMICS. THIS IS WHERE THE ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE AT ODDS VS THE
GFS/NAM AND UKMET. HPC WENT WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION ON SAT
RELYING HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF/NAM ALONG THE FRONT AND 21Z SREF MEAN
ACROSS THE MID-ATL REGION BACK INTO THE OH VLY... HIGHLIGHTING A
.01 TO .10 IN THE MODEST COLD SECTOR OVER THE OH VLY. BY SUN...
THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH BACK OVER MEXICO/SRN PLAINS WILL LIFT OUT
INTO THE MS/TN/OH VLYS BUT WITH THE DEEP LL MOISTURE AND SURFACE
FRONT SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH... THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD
OCCUR IN THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORRIDOR
WITH THE THREAT OF LIGHT PRECIP LINGERING OVER THE OH VLY INTO THE
MID-ATL STATES. HPC CONTINUED TO RELY HEAVILY ON THE 21Z SREF MEAN
TO TAKE OUT MANY OF THE SMALL SCALE DIFFS AND ADD PARTS OF THE
ECMWF AND NAM AT TIMES.
...PAC NW INTO THE NRN GT BASIN...
A BARRAGE OF INTENSE PAC ONSHORE FLOW WILL INUNDATE THE PAC NW
INTO NRN CA AND SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN
REGION... YIELDING VERY HEAVY IF NOT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND LARGE
AMOUNTS OF SNOW IN THE CASCADES ON SAT AND SUN. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
FORECASTS A STRONG SHORT WAVE/PAC JET SLAMMING INTO WA/OR ON SAT
BEFORE SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN TEMPORARILY. A MUCH MORE
POTENT CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE NERN PAC ON
SUN AND STEER ANOTHER IMPRESSIVE JET AND A WEALTH OF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION... FOCUSING ON OR INTO NRN CA. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
2-4 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL PWATS WILL FEED INTO THE REGION POUNDING
THE COAST/COASTAL RANGES WITH UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE 48
PERIOD. HPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS W/ AN
INCORPORATION OF THE 21Z SREF MEAN FOR BETTER OROGRAPHIC DETAILS.
MUSHER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
24HR QP VT 14/12Z
0.01 540202 538192 536186 533181 529173 522166 518163 513164
505165 499165 496167 492167 490167 487170 488177 489181
494189 494194 496196 500200 507205 509207 511213 512219
515223 520234 523241 517239 512231 509226 507221 504216
502215 500209 497206 492203 490200 474207 450227 443230
437238 436246 438251 441254 445256 452255 461253 467254
471258 477264 480266 480272 476287 475295 476301 479304
484306 489305 495302 500298 503298 507301
0.01 392722 390713 387705 385701 382699 378695 371695 364700
358705 357709 354712 351724 349729 347732 346735 336747
332753 328756 324762 322766 321772 321777 323780 326783
327782 332778 334778 338782 339792 336798 331804 327808
326815 322839 320844 317849 310858 301868 295877 290887
286898 284902 282908 280922 279928 277932 272942 265953
260963 254970 251973 250977 253984 257988 261991 267993
274993 278989 281985 284981 286981 288984 290986 293994
296999 302001 306004 306011 304019 305026 310040 318049
321052 322058 325064 329068 326074 325078 325084 330096
333112 340121 341127 346130 353131 359128 362123 361118
360115 352108 352103 357104 362108 366109 370109 371106
371101 371097 374094 386092 390090 392086 391081 390079
392076 394070 393061 403053 402049 399047 395045 389042
384038 374029 371026 368021 368016 370007 371005 371998
368991 362980 359975 356967 355962 353954 353948 353937
353928 354921 356914 358909 364897 370885 375874 379863
382850 383833 383818 382808 382804 383800 387786 389773
393761 394752 394740 392722
0.25 534225 536218 537211 536201 532192 526186 521181 517178
513177 510182 511188 514195 518205 521212 523217 525221
528229 531230 534226 534225
0.25 520269 520263 518259 514252 510245 506235 502229 499221
497217 494215 489214 486214 482213 481215 481219 485221
489224 492230 494235 495240 500246 501250 502253 502256
496259 493263 492266 491275 493280 495283 499285 502285
508283 512275 517272 520269
0.25 491248 490243 487240 481241 476234 472232 464232 458234
452236 448238 452242 457240 463239 468240 472242 477247
481251 485250 491248
0.25 376757 375749 373742 371739 368738 365737 363740 359746
358751 357755 357759 358766 360773 364775 369774 372770
373766 375761 376757
0.25 372835 372828 369824 364823 358823 354822 350819 343817
338819 335822 331832 329843 327852 318869 313877 309880
304883 298889 292896 289904 287914 288926 286936 283946
282956 282962 285967 294968 299972 300975 306983 309985
314985 325985 330988 332991 335995 341994 342990 342983
343971 343945 344935 346923 349912 352904 360885 364876
367866 369859 371849 372835
0.25 379079 380076 380072 377068 374065 369063 367059 366055
369050 365047 360040 357035 354033 351034 349038 349048
350054 352058 355063 356068 356071 358073 364073 369072
372077 375081 379079
0.50 534210 534205 534203 532200 531198 529194 526195 523197
524202 524205 525207 527210 530213 532213 534210
0.50 515262 514260 511257 509259 510265 511265 513265 515262
0.50 505277 506273 506270 503269 500269 498269 498274 499277
502279 505277 505277
0.50 368844 367838 366834 358832 342827 338829 336832 334841
331850 328859 321874 317880 314884 311887 305891 297897
293904 290911 292918 293923 292927 289936 288940 288946
288953 289959 291962 300963 303967 305972 309977 313978
316976 325972 333969 335962 336951 339932 344913 350897
358880 364864 367853 368844
1.00 360855 359851 356852 350850 344847 342847 335859 330869
325881 319893 313902 301911 298922 294933 294940 296946
297950 300953 305954 312954 314952 316947 317946 323942
330933 335922 337916 339909 345899 350885 354873 358863
360855
1.50 347877 347871 344867 340867 336870 332876 330883 326891
322898 318904 312909 307915 303921 300929 299931 300937
299942 301947 307945 316933 329921 332915 335909 343893
345885 347877
2.00 340886 340882 339879 335881 329892 322902 315910 310918
312922 309921 310924 312927 312931 318925 325918 332908
337898 339892 340886
24HR QP VT 15/12Z
0.01 522265 522259 521254 518245 513230 504211 509212 516219
520225 526231 530229 531227 533221 534216 538206 538199
538191 536182 532175 528169 523162 514152 501140 495133
489130 482125 476123 461118 458114 460110 459104 455097
451093 447093 442092 438091 436093 429094 430100 425103
421104 418107 414111 410103 407104 403110 402114 403116
408121 414123 417126 418132 418138 416144 413153 412175
413181 417186 423193 422198 420200 415212 410211 404206
393200 389202 386205 386209 387212 389215 390217 387219
384219 381222 379226 382233 386238 391242 408252 424258
435262 442263 447262 457262 464264 473265 482272 487278
490283 494286 498289 505292 508292 512290
0.01 472197 469195 467193 464194 462195 461199 463200 465202
468200 469199 472197 472197
0.01 406726 405719 402714 394709 387708 379708 373711 368715
364720 361725 354734 348743 337759 327771 317791 306805
303813 302821 309825 312828 311831 291865 285882 280897
272916 269925 266932 257964 254973 254979 255985 255997
260997 263996 266999 276010 280017 282019 287020 294018
298015 301011 302005 305998 307994 306988 304980 302975
301969 302961 304952 305948 307944 311940 314936 318926
323925 327927 352943 358944 363944 368942 378931 390924
399913 405891 414875 423863 426855 426848 425841 422828
418815 408792 405783 404776 404765 406746 406726
0.01 434200 435197 434192 434191 431190 431192 429195 430199
430200 433201 434200
0.01 440129 442121 437117 433120 431124 428129 425135 424141
423146 424152 428151 430147 432144 433140 434136 437132
440129
0.01 393079 390073 387071 382071 379067 375061 370059 364059
350062 347058 346051 344046 342044 338045 333048 329052
326054 327059 331062 328066 324069 321078 318082 313085
310088 307095 304104 307110 311111 321101 325101 330102
335108 340112 343112 346110 348107 348103 346097 349092
353092 356090 357086 356082 358078 362078 367080 371084
378085 384087 389085 392082 393079
0.25 515277 516271 517265 516258 511241 504226 497211 493206
490204 486202 479204 472206 466208 462208 449213 441214
435212 428212 425214 423218 419223 415224 410225 408226
402230 397231 394233 394237 398242 405246 419251 434253
446252 452252 461252 469253 475257 483263 488268 496278
503284 508284 510282 515277
0.25 524197 523190 521185 514176 508168 500159 489143 486143
483147 477148 471146 468143 463142 455147 450150 447150
440149 438153 439156 441161 444166 449171 452168 455162
461162 464165 472173 479178 484182 491183 502184 511192
517197 522198 524197
0.25 386750 386746 384742 379737 374737 370740 359751 354758
351766 345777 340787 335802 331816 329820 326826 318835
311848 303857 296880 291891 285905 267953 264964 264971
264975 266979 268981 273982 282980 286976 288971 296947
301937 308922 314912 321904 332893 338889 344885 354878
364871 370865 375858 378851 380845 383831 385818 388801
389785 387766 386750
0.50 510265 508251 507244 503234 499222 496217 491211 484207
478207 467211 457213 446216 433216 428217 424222 420229
416230 410231 405233 400236 400239 402242 410245 417248
430250 443248 452247 459245 465245 472246 478250 483255
487260 491267 495272 500278 504280 507278 509268 510265
0.50 503257 503252 500247 496240 493238 491233 489228 486225
483225 480226 480230 482236 485236 488238 493242 495247
497251 500256 503257
0.50 488166 487165 484162 483160 482159 479158 476156 473155
472154 470152 468150 465151 463153 464156 465157 467160
468162 470163 472166 475167 475168 478169 481170 484170
486170 487169 488166
0.50 377787 376780 373772 370767 365768 360773 356779 349788
344797 340806 336818 331828 306863 305874 302882 296893
291903 284920 275940 272950 269958 268966 268971 274972
277970 281966 284962 288954 297932 305916 311908 319899
333885 350866 363852 366848 368843 372828 374819 376809
377796 377787
1.00 483213 482213 479212 479213 482214 483213
1.00 461233 464226 466222 464217 458217 452218 449219 443218
434221 431223 428227 426231 422234 417235 413237 409242
414244 420246 429246 439244 448242 454239 461233
1.00 353839 353831 351827 348823 343828 340833 334843 331848
327852 324856 321861 321865 323868 324871 323878 324882
330880 334875 341865 342861 343854 350845 353839
1.50 428243 430240 428238 425238 422238 419238 416239 415239
415240 418243 421243 424243 427244 428243
24HR QP VT 16/12Z
0.01 525256 523248 523242 525232 529222 536217 537215 539207
539202 538197 537194 533183 525169 516156 511149 504142
498136 492130 480121 475117 476109 476105 473102 466098
460098 458097 455093 450091 443090 439089 435090 429085
424084 421088 421094 420099 415102 411101 406100 403106
398111 398116 400119 406123 414126 415130 414138 410148
411161 411168 410173 411178 414184 419189 422192 426192
433188 435188 435192 436203 434205 430204 426200 422198
418198 405202 396200 392199 388201 386204 386207 388212
393218 394222 391221 383220 380223 376223 371217 368218
367225 370230 383242 393251 407260 412263 420265 434269
446270 454269 462271 468275 473282 477287 480290 484293
489295 500297 507298 512295
0.01 420777 420771 417766 412761 406757 404752 403746 399740
393734 387728 382725 379723 374721 368718 361718 357722
347738 336752 332758 329765 327771 327781 327790 324798
315815 308825 302838 294852 291859 287869 281896 278904
277913 276922 276926 274933 269943 261954 254967 251975
250979 251983 256985 264985 273984 281981 287977 293970
298965 303958 311948 316943 322939 326936 328932 331924
333915 338906 341901 344896 355882 362878 371875 377873
383869 387862 391847 393838 396830 402814 406804 412793
416785 420777
0.01 434164 432160 432156 430152 430147 427143 424146 424147
423150 424153 424154 426158 426159 429161 431164 434165
434164
0.25 517278 519268 518254 515246 511237 503220 499213 496208
492204 484201 480201 477203 470206 462209 449213 440213
434212 429210 423211 420213 417213 408210 400207 396205
393206 392210 394214 399221 399224 397226 394227 390228
388230 388235 391239 397245 405251 418257 425258 434257
448254 455252 464252 472255 480262 486267 493275 503287
507288 510288 513285 517280 517278
0.25 519191 518185 515178 507167 499161 495156 492148 488139
483134 478131 472129 467132 457139 454142 450145 444143
440142 437144 435148 435156 437161 440165 445175 445179
445184 446192 450192 454188 458184 459182 461178 459173
460170 463171 469174 477175 483178 489178 496178 503182
509189 515194 519191
0.25 451113 451109 450105 449105 447104 444103 441103 438103
435102 434104 432108 431112 432112 435114 438114 440115
443116 446117 449116 451113
0.25 376756 374750 372747 368745 364745 361747 355752 351758
346769 342777 337786 326807 322816 317824 312834 307846
301863 295886 292894 290906 289918 286930 281949 281953
283956 288957 294954 298950 310936 316927 321916 340877
353834 354824 357812 368790 371782 373774 374764 376756
0.50 515272 515258 513250 509240 504229 496217 490209 486206
480206 468210 460212 455212 452214 446216 437216 428215
425216 422220 416222 410218 401214 399212 396211 399215
402217 404217 406221 406224 404226 401228 396230 393232
394236 398242 401245 406248 413252 421254 427255 443252
456249 466249 476253 483258 489265 494272 501280 515272
0.50 487233 486228 483224 481223 478225 480228 481231 482232
485233 487233
0.50 485161 482156 479154 473151 470149 465145 462145 459148
458152 458157 462161 466165 469167 475168 478167 483165
485161
0.50 452171 453168 454164 454159 452157 450155 450154 447152
444150 443149 441148 439148 438149 436152 437157 438158
440161 440162 443165 443166 446168 448171 448172 451173
452171
0.50 344828 343820 342815 339811 335812 332815 326821 319830
315836 312844 308855 303867 302882 301890 298897 297902
295909 293926 292939 293944 296945 298942 306933 314921
325898 331886 336872 336845 341836 344828
1.00 497264 496261 494258 493256 491253 491252 491255 491257
493261 493262 495264 497264
1.00 482245 477235 470232 469226 469218 465215 458216 443218
430220 427221 425225 424230 420232 415231 410231 405232
401235 401239 403242 408246 417250 425251 431251 444248
456244 463242 471241 482245
1.00 331868 327866 322861 318861 314865 311869 309875 307886
307894 307899 304911 303921 307919 310912 314902 318893
321888 325884 328879 330872 331868
1.50 462225 465221 463218 455218 445220 433223 429225 428229
425234 422234 414234 409234 406236 405240 410244 417248
424249 431248 441247 452243 456239 455235 453231 453226
459227 462225
2.00 456224 460224 463221 461219 457220 453222 454223 456224
2.00 453239 450235 444232 440231 443227 448224 442223 439225
435225 434228 433233 429235 425236 416236 411237 410241
412243 417246 423247 432246 441245 449242 453239
3.00 444240 443238 440237 437238 430240 434243 442241 444240
$$
