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August 10, 2001
The USDA estimates Kazakstan total grain production for 2001/02 at 13.7 million tons, up from 11.4 million last year. Wheat output is estimated at 11.0 million tons, up 2.0 million from last month and 1.9 million from last year. The weather has been generally favorable for grains in north-central Kazakstan, where roughly 80 percent of the country's wheat is grown. Precipitation during during the past two months has been adequate but not excessive. Vegetative indices derived from NOAA/AVHRR satellite imagery indicate that conditions during the second half of July -- when vegetative indices are typically at peak levels and provide the best indicator of yield potential -- were significantly better than last year, but not as good as two years ago, when Kazakstan harvested a bumper crop with a near-record yield.
The area sown to grains in Kazakstan declined sharply during the 1990's, as farmers diverted much of their less-productive grain land to pasture. Total grain area dropped over 50 percent between 1992/93 and 1999/2000, from 22.6 million hectares to an estimated 10.9 million. In 2000/01, grain area increased by nearly 2 million hectares, to 12.7 million -- the first increase of this size in almost 40 years -- and 2001/02 area is estimated at approximately the same level. Spring wheat is by far the dominant grain in Kazakstan, comprising nearly 95 percent of the total wheat area of 10.5 million hectares, and about 75 percent of total grain area.
Northern Kazakstan receives an average of 200 millimeters (8 inches) of precipitation during the growing season, barely enough for grain production. The grain crop must rely on rainfall alone for its moisture; virtually no grain fields are irrigated in Kazakstan. As a result, grain yield is highly susceptible to drought and can fluctuate widely from year to year. Typically, Kazakstan grain production is significantly affected by drought in two years out of five. Abundant precipitation, however, does not necessarily translate into high yield. In 1997, for example, the key grain region received generous rainfall, but due to a lack of herbicides and fungicides, the moisture resulted chiefly in increased weed and disease infestation. The precipitation pattern for May through July for the current growing season has been similar to 1999, which was a year of high grain yield.
Wheat harvest in north-central Kazakstan typically begins in late August or early September and continues through October, weather permitting.
View current USDA estimates of grain production in the former Soviet Union.
For more information, contact Mark Lindeman with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0143.
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