FXUS63 KLOT 161746 CCA
AFDCHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1145 AM CST MON FEB 16 2004

.FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR AM ZONES/GRIDS:

THE WEATHER WILL BE COLD WITH LIGHT WINDS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEW YORK BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING. 
WE EXPECT A SOUTH WIND AND WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. ALL 
THE GUIDANCE SHOW THE TEMPERATURES BECOMING HIGHER THROUGH THE WEEK. 
LOOKING AT THE FORECAST POSITION OF THE 500 MB WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT 
THE AVN AND ETA MODELS ARE SIMILAR. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH 
THIS WAVE AND ITS SURFACE COLD FRONT. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY FORECAST 
PRECIPITATION AS ALL MOS GUIDANCE POPS ARE LOW. 

A CYCLONE DEVELOPS IN WESTERN KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVES EAST
TO NORTHERN GEORGIA. THE INVERTED TROUGH PASSE THROUGH NORTHERN 
ILLINOIS LATE FRIDAY. THE UPPER AIR WAVE HAS MORE NEGATIVE TILT 
FORECAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. SO WE EXPECT THIS CYCLONE TO BE 
STRONGER. THERE WILL BE A STRONG SOUTH FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA 
FROM THE GULF. HENCE WARMING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. 
PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN OR A MIXTURE OF BOTH. WHW 
    
&&

.AVIATION DISCUSSION REGARDING 18Z TAFS:

SYNOPSIS...RETREATING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER MICH AND SRN ONTARIO 
WILL ALLOW A WEAK RETURN FLOW TTHIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER 
WEAK TROUGH WIL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY VEERING THE 
WINDS AROUND TO W OR NW AGAIN.

WINDS...GRADIENT FAIRLY WEAK AND WITH SNOW COVER AND SHALLOW 
INVERSION AT AROUND 2500FT REMAINING LIGHT SE WINDS UNDER 10 KT 
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS BECOMING MOVE SW AHEAD OF TROUGH 
DURING THE NIGHT THEN WEST SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING. ALL SPEEDS 12KT 
OR LESS.

VIS...NO RESTRICTIONS ENTR PERIOD. 

CLOUDS/CIGS...WIDESPREAD CIRRUS WITH SOME LOWER DECKS TO 10K TONIGHT 
AND TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL CONTINUED DRY AND NO MEANINGFUL MOSITURE SEEN 
AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH TUE.

KL

&&

.LOT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LK MI...NONE.

&&

$$