FXUS04 KWBC 141000 PAA QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 559 AM EDT SAT JUN 14 2003 FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JUN 15/1200 UTC THRU JUN 17/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR ...DAY1... AGAIN...FLIP-FLOPPING QPFS OVER THE SOUTH WERE NOTED BTWN THE 0000 AND 0600 UTC RUNS OF THE SAME MODEL LENDING VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO THE FCST THERE. MADE SOME SGFNT CHANGES EARLY IN THE FCST PD OVR WRN GULF STATES BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION OF SE TX UPPER VORT CNTR. ...NEW ENG... THE ETA AND GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR HANDLING THE SHRTWV CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS NEW ENG AS WELL AS THE EVOLUTION OF A SFC LOW OFF THE NEW ENG CST. AS A RESULT MODEL QPFS ARE NOT THAT DIFFERENT...WITH BOTH INDCTG OVRRNG RAINS LIFTING NWD ACROSS NRN NEW ENG...AND THEREFORE DID NOT DEVIATE SGFNTLY FM GUIDANCE. ...CONCERNING THE WEAK BROAD TROF OVR THE CNTRL/ERN U.S... FIRST OF ALL...CONFIDENCE HERE IS ABOUT AS LOW AS YOU CAN GET HERE WITH THE MODELS HAVING A SGFNT QPF DIFFERENCES DUE THE VERY WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING HERE AND THE INVOLVEMENT OF MESOSCALE SYSTEMS. ONE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT APPEARS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 12-24HRS IS THAT PIECES OF SHRTWV ENERGY WILL FIRE AREAS OF HVY CNVCTV RAINS FM TX EWD INTO THE SERN U.S. ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER TROF PSN. IT IS MOST DIFFICULT TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON ANY PARTICULAR MID LVL IMPULSE THAT WILL FIRE THIS ACTVTY AND THE UNCERTAINTY IS COMPOUNDED BY THE UNKNOWN EFFECTS OF MESOSCALE FORCING. ACROSS SRN TX...WE WILL HAVE A FVBL MSTR CHANNEL ASOCTD WITH LLVL SELY FLOW OFF THE WRN GULF. ANY ACTVTY THAT DVLPS OVR THE SRN HI PLAINS LATER THIS AFTN WILL LIKELY ADVANCE SEWD WITH TIME ALONG THIS AXIS. MEANWHILE...THE CNTRL GULF/SERN U.S. WILL SEE SHWRS TRIGGERED BY CNVCTVLY ENHANCED VORTS BEING EJECTED ENEWD FM CURRENT AND FUTURE ACTVTY OVR TX. THE ETAS QPF FM THE CNTRL GULF COAST NEWD TWDS THE SRN APLCNS APPEARS REASONABLE THOUGH SHIFTED IT SLIGHTLY EWD TO REFLECT THE TIMING OF THE CURRENT CNVCTN OVR THE NWRN GULF COAST AREA AND ITS ASOCTD MESOSCALE GENERATED VORT CNTR. MEANWHILE...LLVL MSTR CNVGNC AXIS LYING FM THE MID ATLC REGION WSWWD ACROSS THE OH VLY TO THE SRN PLAINS WILL BE ANOTHER FEATURE ALONG WHICH CNVCTN COULD FOCUS. THE ONLY WELL- DEFINED MID LVL FEATURE FOR TRIGGERING ACTVTY ALONG THIS AXIS IS THE WEAK MID LVL TROF FCST TO BE OVR THE MIDWEST/LWR OH VLY AREA BY THIS EVNG. ANOTHER WEAK PERTURBATION NOW BEING EJECTED EWD INTO THE UPPER OH VLY COULD SERVE TO FIRE CNVCTN OVR THAT AREA AND THE CNTRL APLCNS DURING THE DAY TODAY. IN ADDITION...A LEE TROF OVR THE SRN MID ATLC REGION COULD HELP TO FOCUS ADNL SHWRS THERE. ...NRN PLAINS... SCTD SHWRS ARE EXPECTED HERE ASOCTD WITH THE EWD PUSH OF A WEAK CDFNT. AMAZINGLY...THE MODEL QPFS AS FAR AS PLACEMENT IS CONCERNED ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. DAY 2... ...SERN STATES/CAROLINAS... MORE WET WEATHER ON TAP FOR THE SE AND MID-ATLC STATES THIS PERIOD AS MSTR CONTINUES TO STREAM UP THRU THE GULF STATES AND MID-ATLC STATES FROM THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF. BOTH MODELS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN SHOWING A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE PATN AT 500 MB WITH A VARIETY OF S/WV'S EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW LIFTING UP THRU THE REGION. WHILE THEY ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN... THEY.. OF COURSE... ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME OF THE STRENGTH AND TIMING DETAILS OF THE EMBEDDED VORTS. THE GFS LOOKS FASTER THAN THE ETA WITH THE PCPN THAT IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE BNDRY DRAPED THRU THE SE. ENDED UP GOING MORE WITH THE ETA HERE AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS MIGHT BE A BIT TOO FAST CONSIDERING THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE SE COAST. ADDITIONALLY.. THE GFS DOES LOOK OVERDONE WITH ITS QPF ...SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY... LINGERING S/WV ENERGY WILL COMBINE WITH THE ABUNDANT TROPICAL MSTR POOLED ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION TO PRODUCE FAIRLY HVY RNFL OVER LA AND ERN TX. THE ETA SEEMS TO BE A BIT BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE VORT OVER SRN TEXAS AND THUS IS ALSO BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE QPF. AGAIN... THE GFS LOOKS LIKE IT IS HAVING FEEDBACK PROBLEMS.. THIS TIME OVER N CNTRL TEXAS WHERE IT HAS ALMOST THREE INCHES. ...SOUTH FLORIDA... BOTH THE ETA AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT HERE AS BOTH THE MODELS SHOW TROPICAL MSTR STREAMING NWD ACRS SRN FLORIDA AND SUPPORTING MDT TO HVY DIURNAL CONVECTION. DAY3.... WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MASS FIELDS ON DAY3.. THE QPF ACTUALLY LOOKS RATHER SIMILAR TO THAT ON DAY2. THE BROAD AND WEAK UPPER TROF WILL LINGER OVER THE MS AND OH VLYS AND MSTR CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED NWD FROM THE ERN AND CNTRL GULF SUPPORTING YET MORE MDT TO HVY RAINS IN A SWATH FROM THE LWR MS VYL EWD THRU THE OUTER BANKS. HAVING LITTLE FAITH IN THE ABILITY OF THE MDLS TO PRODUCE CONVECTION THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.. WILL JUST BASICALLY BROAD BRUSH THE PCPN. AGAIN.. THE ETA LOOKS MUCH BETTER ORGANISED COMPARED TO THE GFS AT H5 WITH THE MAIN VORT. A FAST MOVING NRN STREAM S/WV WILL ALSO SPREAD SOME LT TO MDT RAINS EWD ACRS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VLY. KORTY/ROBSON GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 15/12Z 0.01 497680 492666 490662 485655 478643 471634 462626 457625 453624 450626 447625 441622 436622 431626 428626 426626 424629 421635 419641 417648 414661 410673 407677 404680 400684 391694 384698 374703 365711 360718 350737 338758 332767 327776 321781 314783 309783 303785 284788 274789 265789 258789 252790 240797 239803 239809 240815 248822 254826 271835 279840 287846 291852 292855 293861 292868 288876 285886 266922 263929 261938 259943 257948 252953 247962 245966 244972 244978 245986 249997 253005 259012 267017 273022 280027 287034 294043 300048 305051 321057 326056 332057 338058 341060 348061 352064 356065 363067 377065 388064 396065 401063 406060 424050 429053 432057 437060 444062 458058 462059 463061 461068 456079 456087 455092 447098 446101 446105 448109 452115 455118 460124 463131 474137 477142 482145 490154 494157 493161 493162 489162 486162 483164 485170 489175 494179 504186 515189 518187 519183 521177 520170 514157 510149 507145 502141 492135 483130 481125 479116 478110 478100 479080 482071 481060 481055 483054 488050 497046 508044 519039 526035 529030 530024 529019 528012 526009 520006 516006 504002 500000 502999 515995 525991 529986 529980 523978 518977 503977 495978 489980 483982 477985 464989 452989 445988 441985 440975 435971 430969 417970 410970 404970 396968 388965 379963 374962 369961 362958 357955 355950 355944 356936 361927 368916 377898 382889 386879 391866 395861 399855 403852 406847 410840 413834 420815 423791 424783 423777 421770 418766 416761 416757 417749 418737 420733 426730 432730 437731 449733 460736 469737 475737 482732 487727 491721 493709 495703 496695 497680 0.01 536216 536210 534202 531198 526198 523199 522201 521206 522212 524217 525222 526231 525236 523239 520240 512236 507231 504225 500215 497210 495209 491211 490215 488218 489223 493235 498244 500251 499248 495245 493242 490241 484240 477232 473233 471236 472241 477247 484259 488268 493276 500287 505291 511293 0.01 437000 433000 430002 427005 422009 419011 417015 414018 417020 421017 425014 428011 434008 436004 437000 0.25 485690 484684 482676 475664 469657 462650 449637 443634 440635 435639 431648 428656 425676 424684 425692 431697 438704 443711 447715 450716 457713 466713 473712 478709 482705 484701 485696 485690 0.25 516272 516266 514261 511256 509253 506254 505259 502260 499259 493257 493259 495267 497272 499276 504280 507281 509279 513276 516272 0.25 403753 401747 398742 395736 391732 386731 381732 377737 375739 372737 369733 364735 361739 359745 357758 353769 349778 343785 335794 331798 325802 314808 307811 301812 291810 281807 266800 262799 256802 253807 252813 258819 267823 277825 289826 298826 305828 310831 313834 317842 317849 314854 312857 308858 304860 302864 299874 297879 293886 286902 282912 279923 275936 273946 272952 270956 265965 261972 258979 257988 260994 265003 272010 279016 289021 296029 301035 309040 319042 330041 337039 341035 350028 348021 345017 339009 330951 328946 326939 327930 328924 330911 331906 334902 336898 337891 343884 349873 353869 356868 359869 362876 362882 360896 361898 364897 368893 374883 378875 382866 386856 390849 393845 399840 402837 407826 409819 410812 410804 410796 408784 405772 404768 403763 403753 0.50 479690 476681 471672 467666 463660 454649 449646 444644 440645 437650 434665 435671 435677 438681 442689 446698 450702 455703 465703 472701 477699 479695 479690 0.50 404809 404805 403802 402801 402803 400805 399808 398809 396813 394817 393818 392821 392823 392827 393830 395831 398830 400829 402826 404822 404820 405817 404813 404810 404809 0.50 384752 383748 381748 377752 375755 373758 369764 367769 366773 366777 368781 373779 378775 380772 383768 382761 383756 384752 0.50 355827 355818 353815 351813 346814 343817 341823 337838 333850 331856 328861 323866 315870 307872 303877 296887 291897 287910 284922 279935 281942 282944 284944 286942 290941 289946 284959 282964 277970 271977 267981 265988 266995 269001 278010 281012 286014 292018 295022 300027 305031 318035 325034 330032 332029 333025 330018 327012 323007 313000 310995 308992 309987 313983 317977 319971 319964 317955 314947 316942 319936 322931 324924 324914 326907 332896 336884 342872 346860 348852 351846 354835 355827 0.50 281816 278816 274815 270811 267808 265806 261804 257805 258809 260811 263814 266817 270818 273819 276819 278817 281818 281816 1.00 330879 330876 328876 324880 313886 307889 303891 298895 295899 292910 292917 290923 299928 303932 307932 311930 315924 317913 321902 326893 330882 330879 1.00 315019 314014 310010 306007 302003 299999 296992 290986 287979 286977 283977 280980 276985 276990 278994 285003 292009 299017 302021 309023 315019 24HR QP VT 16/12Z 0.01 437600 432610 430616 433624 436632 437638 440645 443648 448654 452657 457659 460663 463671 465677 465685 464691 456702 455709 455714 459717 463718 470716 475710 477705 479698 481684 485659 487644 487637 486628 486622 486617 479603 475595 472591 467584 465581 463580 455579 0.01 540207 539204 539202 537197 537196 535193 532191 529193 528194 527198 527203 527206 527208 529213 529217 530219 531223 535221 535220 536216 538211 539209 540207 0.01 520264 521257 521252 516244 512243 509245 507252 508259 505259 500255 498255 494258 493265 494269 498279 501285 505288 507287 513280 516272 520264 0.01 521953 520949 518947 513945 498947 496945 501939 508928 508916 514902 514894 510889 506885 502883 499888 499899 494911 488925 480935 470943 464947 460951 456957 456962 461965 461970 460974 458990 456997 455007 455017 456027 459043 459052 457060 449060 447063 446067 447073 456080 456092 454098 454103 455107 458114 462127 467131 472133 480134 484134 488133 492131 493131 493126 487117 488094 488073 492058 493052 493046 493036 497023 495014 492006 494001 497995 504983 510974 518962 521956 521953 0.01 377711 376706 373701 368695 366694 362696 356701 344709 340721 336736 332749 327762 323773 320778 316785 312790 308792 304794 281787 269787 264787 257788 252790 249793 246798 241809 243816 247821 251826 256829 278836 285837 291838 295840 300845 304851 307860 306868 304874 301881 298887 290897 274917 265925 252933 243939 240943 241951 245954 249956 248959 246966 247972 248977 247985 249993 251999 255006 258011 262014 267017 283009 285016 287024 291029 296033 301037 307037 323035 331034 338033 345034 354034 357037 355041 353048 350050 346051 338051 329050 323053 321055 320060 326065 341065 349068 355068 361068 367070 376070 385069 390068 392067 393063 392056 388050 382045 381042 383039 385037 398031 398026 398021 397015 394014 390015 386017 381020 371026 367027 364026 361020 351009 348003 346996 344985 343980 343974 342963 342953 343938 345921 349908 355895 366871 371855 376841 384811 387805 391799 393795 392790 391783 388763 387746 385737 382726 378715 377711 0.25 463594 457590 447591 442597 441601 441615 444628 448639 451643 456646 463650 467651 471650 474648 475644 475639 469624 467611 467605 464597 463594 0.25 485046 486037 484034 482033 476035 472038 468042 467055 466072 465081 463085 462089 462094 464106 467113 470114 473111 478103 478094 477085 478076 479068 482057 485046 0.25 376740 374732 372725 368721 364719 359722 355726 349734 339751 336762 335771 334781 332791 330796 326800 323803 318804 300807 281806 277805 273802 270800 264800 256802 253805 251810 256817 263823 271826 278827 288827 294827 299828 306831 316829 320831 323835 324841 323845 321856 318866 311885 306892 301900 295906 288911 281918 275923 268931 263938 262942 261948 260958 257977 257984 259989 263998 267001 270002 267993 265986 265980 268970 271962 271957 276956 283955 286956 295959 304962 305968 306975 309980 312983 318982 323979 325975 328966 332944 337922 341902 344892 346888 350884 355878 360869 364858 367849 367841 369836 373827 385787 384782 382775 381762 380755 378748 376740 0.50 461611 460607 458604 456603 454603 453604 452605 451606 449610 449613 449616 449618 450622 451626 454629 456631 456632 459631 461628 461626 461621 461616 461612 461611 0.50 477055 478051 477049 474051 472059 471068 470074 469081 465089 464095 467103 472104 473102 474096 474089 473077 474072 474066 475059 477055 0.50 377760 365727 361727 358730 354736 347748 346755 3