FXUS63 KBIS 251951
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
250 PM CDT WED AUG 25 2004

.SHORT TERM...
ACTIVE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS 
TONIGHT. RADARS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS IN BEST LIFT REGION NORTH OF WARM 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER REGION OF INTEREST THIS 
EVENING WILL BE ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH 
DAKOTA. AS THIS SYSTEM SLIDES EAST THE BETTER CHC FOR PRECIP WILL BE 
NORTH AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW. HAVE PARCED THE CHC FOR PRECIP 
ALONG THESE LINES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG 
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION THURSDAY. 
EXPECT COOL SHOWERY DAY WEST TOMORROW. CHC SHOWERS WILL EXTEND INTO 
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL DRY FORECAST OUT FRIDAY. 

.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ZONAL FLOW AT H500 THROUGH THE LONG TERM 
FORECAST PERIOD. ON SUNDAY A VORT CENTER MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS 
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A VORT TAIL EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS NORTH 
DAKOTA. KEPT MENTION OF PRECIP OUT MAINLY BECAUSE MOST OF THE ENERGY 
REMAINS IN CANADA...AND BEYOND DAY 3 OF FORECAST TIMING PROBLEMS ARE 
NOTORIOUS WITH FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVES. DAYS 5-7 INDICATE MAINLY 
CHANNELED VORTICITY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
WAA/JV