AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON 1000 AM EST SUN JAN 09 2000 SERIES OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA IN FAST ACTIVE ZNL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY. MDLS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR HAVING PROBLEMS IN DEALING WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF EACH SHORTWAVE IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE AFFECTED THE AREA OVRNGT WITH TRACE AMTS OF -RA/PE. THIS SYSTEM IS NOW WELL E OF THE AREA. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVR THE OH VLY THIS MORNING WL TRACK EWD PASSING JUST TO OUR N THIS AFT/EVE. DECENT WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IS RESULTING IN A WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN OVR SW VA AND WV TRACKING ENE. 06Z ETA AND LATEST RUC SUGGESTS THAT RAIN WL LINGER INTO EARLY EVE AS THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO THE N...THEN PCPN SHUD CUT OFF WELL BFR MIDNIGHT. THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE WL APPROACH ON MON MORNING...PASSING THRU THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SFC FNT WL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS THE FCST IS CONCERNED...WILL BUMP POPS UP ALL AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL OCCUR WHICH WL RESULT IN SOME COOL AIR DAMMING E OF THE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WL HOLD MAX TEMPS DOWN A BIT AND I ADJUSTED THEM AS NEEDED. WL LET THE CHC OF RA LINGER INTO EARLY TNGT THEN BRING THE CHC BACK IN LATE TNGT. OTHERWISE...NO CHGS 2ND AND 3RD PDS. .LWX...NONE. DMW md AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1030 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2000 OVERNIGHT FCST CONCERNS ARE DEVELOPING PRECIP AND WHAT FORM PRECIP WILL TAKE. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES OF NOTE THIS EVENING....ONE MOVING INTO MISSOURI/ARKANSAS...ANOTHER IN NE MANITOBA AND A THIRD MOVING INTO E MONTANA. REFLECTION OF N SHORTWAVE IS A 987 SFC LOW IN NE MANITOBA. A TROF EXTENDS FROM THAT LOW S TO MISSOURI WHERE A WEAK SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED...ASSOCIATED WITH THE S SHORTWAVE. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIP IN NE IA/SE MN AND S/CNTRL WI. IR IMAGERY SHOWS CI SHIELD ENHANCING/FANNING OUT SOME IN SAME AREA INDICATING UPPER DIVG INCREASING AS LEFT EXIT REGION OF JET COMES INTO PLAY. PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND RAPIDLY UPSTREAM OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS UPPER DIVG ACTS ON MOISTENING LOW/MID LEVELS. QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHAT FORM WILL PRECIP TAKE WHEN IT REACHES/DEVELOPS OVER FA. 00Z GRB SOUNDING SHOWS ABOUT 1100FT THICK LAYER ABOVE FREEZING CENTERED AROUND 925MB. AT ITS WARMEST POINT...TEMP IS LESS THAN 1C...AND SHOULD STILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW. HOWEVER...TEMP IN MOIST LAYER IS ABOVE -10C...SUGGESTING LIQUID PRECIP. BOTH 00Z GRB AND APX SOUNDINGS A BIT COOLER THAN MODELS PROGGED. ETA/RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOVE FREEZING LAYER FROM SFC TO ABOUT 900MB MAX OVERNIGHT WITH MAX TEMP AROUND 1C...EXCEPT 2C OVER FAR SCNTRL/SE FA. THESE SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT SLEET...AND THUS EXPECT SNOW/RAIN AS CURRENT FCST INDICATES. 00Z RUC/18Z ETA SHOW 1000-850MB THICKNESS ACROSS FA AROUND 1305M OVERNIGHT...ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF MIX. WITH WARMEST ABOVE FREEZING LAYER ACROSS FAR S/SE FA...RAIN POTENTIAL GREATEST THERE. HOWEVER...WITH MODELS JUST A TOUCH TOO WARM AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...WILL KEEP MENTION OF MIX ALL NIGHT FOR E/SE FA AS OPPOSED TO HITTING RAIN HARDEST. TEMPS ARE WAVERING AROUND 32F...SO FREEZING RAIN A THREAT. GRB SOUNDING SHOWS THAT AT LEAST AT ONSET...TEMP IN MOIST LAYER WARMER THAN -10C AND WILL PREVENT ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION. PER COORD WITH GRB/APX WILL ISSUE WINTER WX ADVY FOR BARAGA/IRON EASTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR A LIKELY PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN. PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT...BUT ENOUGH AND WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO CREATE DRIVING PROBLEMS. FREEZING RAIN THREAT LEAST NEAR THE LAKES. BEST PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD COME IN THE 09Z-15Z TIME FRAME AS 00Z RUC SHOWS UPPER DIVG MAXIMIZED AROUND 12Z JUST AHEAD OF UPPER TROF. TIMING OF DIMINISHING PRECIP MON STILL LOOKS GOOD. COORD WITH APX/GRB. .MQT...WINTER WX ADVY OVERNIGHT MIZ004>007-010>014. ROLFSON mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1100 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2000 ...FOG IS MAIN UPDATE CONCERN... VIS IMAGERY SHEDDING LIGHT ON EXTENT OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG OVER UPR MI. BR/FG WIDESPREAD IN DICKINSON/IRON COUNTY WITH FLP SUPPORTING CONTINUATION THU AFTERNOON. SW COUNTIES REMAIN M SUNNY WHILE BKN SC DECK DISSIPATING IN CMX PER ASOS/PHONE CALL TO OBSERVER. ELSEHWERE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH PATCHY FOG LINGERING. LOWERED TEMPS IN DICKINSON/IRON COUNTIES TO REFLECT REDUCED ISOLATION. WATCHING ADVANCE OF WARM FRONT THRU WI W/ SFC DEWPTS IN THE 30S/FG SURGING NORTH BEHIND FRONT. MESOETA/RUC AGREE THAT THIS LL MOISTURE WILL NOT ADVECT INTO S CWA UNTIL 21-00Z. .MQT...NONE. WOLF mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 830 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2000 ADVISORY: WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACRS CURRENTLY DEFINED AREA. 00Z RUC INDICATES SFC TROF SLOWLY WORKING EAST OVERNIGHT... AND WOULD EXPECT SOME DRYING OF LOW LVLS LATE. HOWEVER...SFC MOIST ADV WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN WI/E CNTRL MN THRU 12Z. PCPN: WILL ENHANCE PCPN WORDING ACRS WRN WI TONIGHT. EVENING UPR AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS SIGNIFICANT 700-500MB TROF ACRS ERN GREAT PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...300MB JET STREAK EXTENDED FM SW MO TO SW WI. BAROCLINIC LEAF HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER ERN IA/WI. NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM CLEARLY VISIBLE ACRS MT. OVERNIGHT...MT SYSTEM WILL DIG SE... CAUSING THE LEAD TROF TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THEN EJECT. SEVERAL FACTORS COME INTO PLAY ACRS WRN WI/ERN MN LATER TONIGHT. QG PROGS SHOW SOME SATURATED EPV ADV LATER TONIGHT IN THE MID LEVELS...WITH DECENT UPR LVL DIVERGENCE ON THE LFQ OF JET STREAK. THERE IS ALSO ISENTROPIC ASCENT EARLY...AND 295K MIXING RATIOS ARE NR 2 G/KG. 18Z ETA OMEGA FIELDS SHOW STG FORCING CENTERED OVER THE -15C ISOTHERM. CURRENT TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE A MINOR WARM LAYER JUST OF THE SURFACE...BUT LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE ABLE TO COOL THIS TO BELOW 0 C. THEREFORE...WILL ENHANCE SNOW WORDING FM THE TWIN CITIES EWD INTO THE EAU AREA... AND REMOVE FZRA AS A RA TO SN CHANGEOVER SHOULD OCCUR. OTHER: WILL UPDATE CURRENT FCSTS FOR WORDING...AS WELL AS TO IMPLY IMPROVING VSBYS LATE. THX TO ARX FOR COORD. .MSP...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT MNZ052-053-060>063-069-070- 076>078-084-085-093-WIZ014>016-023>028. DAVIS mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..CORRECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 300 AM CST SAT JAN 8 2000 SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM IS STRATUS AND FOG MOVING UP FROM SOUTH. BOTH 06Z ETA AND LATEST RUC FORECAST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING UP INTO SE MN AND WESTERN WI THIS MORNING. WILL HOLD OFF ON FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH. WILL MENTION AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE ..CONCERNS ARE THE PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATER INTO THIS EVENING..AND ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERALL..LIKE AVN MODEL. IT LOOKS LIKE IT HAS BEST HANDLE ON VORT PATTERN OVER ROCKIES AT AROUND 06Z AND HAS VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY FOR LAST 3 RUNS. ETA AND NGM HAVE COME AROUND TO THE SHARPER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. BEST LAYER (850-700) Q VECTOR CONV FAVORS SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BETTER PRECIPITABLE WATER COMES INTO PLAY OVER EASTERN MN THIS EVENING. PV AT 400 MB PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF MN BUT ADVECTION DECENT INTO SE MN AND WESTERN WI THIS EVENING. BASED ON PAST PRECIP PATTERNS DURING LAST MONTH OR SO..WILL FAVOR EASTERN CWA FOR THIS EVENING AND UP POPS OVER MOS...CLOSER TO AVN. FOR MONDAY...THERE IS REMARKABLE AGREEMENT LOOKING AT DPROG/DT ON AVN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR VORT SLIDING TOWARD MN/IA BORDER AREA. FORECAST LAPSE RATES (7000-500) QUITE STEEP ON MONDAY..NEAR 7.5 C. WILL AGAIN RAISE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW..PRIMARILY NE PART OF CWA. LOOKS WINDY IN SW MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL WITH COLD ADVECTION. .MSP...DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS MORNING..MNZ074>078..MNZ082>085..MNZ091>093 RICHARDSON mn AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 237 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2000 STRONG WESTERLIES WITH EMBEDDED WAVES WILL PROVIDE AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH TEMPS A CHALLENGE THROUGHOUT FCST. IN ADDITION...THERE IS STILL A SHORT TERM CHC OF SHOWERS...AND WINDS WILL BE IMPORTANT MONDAY. IN THE SHORT TERM...UPPER DIFL AND MID LEVEL COLD ADVN ARE EXPANDING CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND PROVIDING FAVORABLE LIFT. A BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER MILD AND MOIST AIR AT LOW LEVELS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA...CAN BE WORKED INTO THE MIX TO PRODUCE SHOWERS. AT THE MOMENT RADAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY WK ECHOES ALOFT...AND 18Z RUC DOES NOT SHOW POTENTIAL INSTABILITY EITHER. FOR NOW WILL TRIM THE FCST BACK TO SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THIS EVE...BUT KEEP A WARY EYE ON THE RADAR UNTIL THE ZONES GO OUT. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT...EXCEPT THAT BY 48 HRS THE ETA HAS CHOSEN A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER SOLN THAN NGM OR ESPECIALLY AVN. THIS GIVES CANADIAN AIR MORE TIME TO PENETRATE INTO THE AREA. SEE BELOW FOR MY REASONS TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF MOS WITH THIS FCST. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN MILD ALONG WITH UPSTREAM AIRMASS. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN UP SOMEWHAT AS SFC LOW IN SRN PLAINS MOVES NORTHEAST AND DEEPENS. WILL GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE PREV FORECAST WITH 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30 SOUTH. MONDAY SHOULD BECOME QUITE WINDY AS ANOTHER WAVE DIVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN... SPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. MODEL GUID DEPICTS ADIABATIC MIXING AS DEEP AS 750 MB DURING THE AFTN WITH WINDS NEARLY PARALLEL FROM SFC UP TO THE JET LEVEL. WILL BOOST THE WIND FCST TO AT LEAST AS STRONG AS NGM MOS AND USE 850 TEMPS +9 OR 10C AS A FIRST GUESS FOR HIGH. AS MIXING DEEPENS...CLOUDS SHOULD FORM IN THE AFTN...BUT SINKING MOTION AND LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY PCPN REACHING THE GROUND. GRADIENT IS SLOW TO DIE MONDAY NIGHT AND WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MIN TEMPS QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN NGM MOS. BELIEVE THAT NGM IS CLOSER ON THE WINDS...WHICH SHOULD BLOW RIGHT UP TO THE SFC RIDGE IN THIS SITUATION. AVN MOS IS FAVORED...AND COULD EVEN GO A FEW DEG ABOVE THAT. WINDS SHOULD FINALLY DECLINE ON TUESDAY AS A WARM ADVN PATTERN SETS UP. MODELS INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 12Z DUE TO WARM ADVN ALOFT...BUT AVN DRIES THE SOUNDING OUT LATER. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE AS FLOW REMAINS STRONG WRLY ALOFT AND LIFT IS LACKING. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER FAIRLY RAPIDLY WITH BARE GROUND...ALTHOUGH WEAK MIXING WILL NOT HELP. AVN IS AGAIN FAVORED OVER COOLER NGM...AND BOTH COULD END UP COLD. BOTH MODELS HAVE LATELY TENDED TO PREDICT UPSTREAM 12Z 850 TEMPS 3-5C TOO COLD OVER NRN ROCKIES AND WRN CANADA EVEN AT 12 HRS. THIS ERROR SEEMED TO CARRY THROUGH ALL THE WAY TO 48 HRS YESTERDAY...AS COMPARABLE 24HR AVN IS NOW ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN YESTERDAY'S SOLUTION OVER THE AREA AND STILL TRENDING UPWARDS. IN EXTENDED...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WELL ABOVE MRF/NCEP MAX TEMPS ON WED. A STNRY FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET UP NEAR THE NE/SD BORDER WITH VERY MILD 850 TEMPS TO THE SOUTH...SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 50S RATHER THAN THE 40S EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR THE SD BORDER. WILL NOT FIGHT GUIDANCE ON DAYS 4 AND 5 AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. DRY PATTERN CONTINUES. .OMA...NONE POLLACK ne AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1004 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2000 INVERTED SFC TROF HAS SET UP ALONG THE CST W/ MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWING A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS ALONG IT. BOTH LATEST RUC & MESO-ETA SHOW A SINGLE PRIMARY LO MOVING UP THE CST THRU THE AFTN ALONG W/ AN UPR S/WV. ONLY WEAK LIFT EXPECTED FROM THESE FEATURES AS WELL AS ANOTHER VORT PASSING WELL N OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTN. ALSO SEEING AREA OF BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHIFT EWD AS WELL. AS EXPECTED THE ATMOS HAS MOISTENED QUITE A BIT IN 24HR W/ 12Z MHX & CHS RAOBS EACH SHOWING PWATS GREATER THAN 1. COLUMN WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AS H7-H8 FLOW BACKS TO MORE SW AHEAD OF TROF NOW OVER THE PLAINS STATES. NEAREST PRECIP ON 88D MOSAIC STILL BACK W OF A KDAN-KGSO-KCLT-KAND LINE & MOVING NE. WILL CONTINUE CHC POPS BUT WILL WORD AS LATE AFTN. BEST INSTABILITIES STILL WELL OFFSHORE BUT CREEP BACK TOWARD CST THRU THE DAY... WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF MENTION OF TRW. TEMPS MAY NEED TO COME DOWN BASED ON LO-LVL THICKNESSES FROM MORNING SOUNDINGS & LAMP GUIDANCE (WHICH IS A LITTLE HIGH BASED ON 15Z TEMPS). WILL PROBABLY DROP A CAT W/ THIS UPDATE. CWF: WINDS TRULY VRB OUT THERE ATTM W/ FPSN7 SHOWING N WINDS 10- 15KT & 41004 SE LESS THAN 5KT. WILL MAINTAIN VRB BECMG SW S OF LITTLE RIVER BUT WILL DECIDE ON INITIAL DIRECTION N OF THERE BASED ON LATER REPORTS. .ILM...NONE. LGE nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 939 AM CST SUN JAN 9 2000 BASED ON SATELLITE...SFC OBS...THE LATEST RUC AND ETA...THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITUATION. THEREFORE...NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. .ABR...NONE MOHR sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 345 AM EST MON JAN 10 2000 THINGS ARE BUSY WITH SEVERE WEATHER SO WILL MAKE THIS SHORT AND SWEET. RUC MODEL SHOWS DRY AIR MOVING IN QUICKLY SO MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER BY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS SHOW THE FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY BECOMING ZONAL AGAIN WITH CLEAR SKIES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL PROBABLY HAVE SEVERAL UPDATES THIS MORNING AS BOXES EXPIRE AND WEATHER MOVES THROUGH. ATL 65/41/63/38 3000 MCN 71/39/67/36 4000 AHN 62/37/63/37 5000 CSG 69/42/66/38 2000 RMG 59/35/58/31 2000 .ATL...NONE. ga AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 440 AM EST MON JAN 10 2000 MAIN FCST CONCERNS TODAY AND TONIGHT INCLUDE PCPN TYPE AND POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS. ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO LES POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MID/UPR LVL PATTERN FEATURES FAST ZONAL FLOW INTO WEST CONUS WITH TROFFING INTO NRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY WHILE RDG HOLDS ON OVER THE EAST. WV IMAGERY INDICATED A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT SHRTWVS THAT WILL AFFECT UPR MI. ONE WAS LIFTING FROM ERN IA INTO WI WHILE ANOTHER STRONG SHRTWV LURKED UPSTREAM OVER ERN MONTANA. IR LOOP SHOWED EXTENSIVE AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDS OVER WRN GRT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH WI SHRTWV AND UPR LVL DIV FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE OF JET OVER ERN ONTARIO. AREA RADARS AND SFC OBS SHOWED PCPN OVER MUCH OF UPR MI AND NW HLF OF WI. MOSTLY -SN REPORTED WITH RAIN MAINLY FROM MNM TO ESC AND ISQ NEAR WARMING INFLUENCE OF LK MI. DEEPER MOISTURE THAT MOVED IN AFT 06Z WAS ENOUGH TO ALLOW ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION AND CHANGE -FZDZ TO -SN OVER CNTRL UPR MI. MDLS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN HANDLING MAJOR FEATURES AFFECTING UPR MI AND WITH LLVL THERMAL FIELDS. SO...HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED ETA WITH BETTER LLVL RESOLUTION. TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT PCPN TO TAPER OFF A BIT FROM SW TO NE BTWN 15Z-18Z AS BEST 700-300 QVECTOR CONV WITH WI SHRTWV LIFTS TOWARD ERN LK SUPERIOR. WL NOT GET FANCY WITH TRYING TO END PCPN THIS AFTERNOON AS QVECTOR FORCING WITH MT SHRTWV MOVES TOWARD UPR MI WITH ENOUGH UPWARD MOTION FOR PERIOD OF PCPN AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...PERSISTENT LLVL CONVERGENCE VCNTY OVER DEEPENING SFC LO AND TROF ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALSO SUPPORTS CONTINUATION OF PCPN. ETA TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD SLIGHTLY COLDER LLVL TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS 09/12Z RUN. ETA/RUC FCST 850-1000 THICKNESS BRINGS 1305M LINE NEAR MQT-IMT LINE AT 18Z. FCST SNDGS SHOW VERY SHALLOW LYR BLO 925 MB ABV 0C OVER CNTRL UPR MI BY 18Z. WL WORD MAINLY AS SNOW WITH POSSIBILITY OF RAIN MIX NEAR LK SUPERIOR WITH DEEPER WARM LYR. TO THE SOUTHEAST...WARM LYR INCREASES UP TO 875 MB. SO...WL KEEP GREATER EMPHASIS ON LIQUID PCPN. WITH TEMPS ALREADY ABV FREEZING WHERE ANY RAIN EXPECTED...WL NOT MENTION -FZRA. MOVEMENT OF SFC LO EAST OF UPR MI BY 00Z AND ATTENDANT CAA SHOULD CHANGE PCPN TO SNOW FOR ALL BUT SOUTHEAST AROUND 00Z. ETA QPF SUGGESTS 1-2 INCH SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY AND UP TO AN INCH THIS EVENING WITH 10/1 SNOW/WATER RATIO IN RELATIVELY WARM TEMP PROFILE. EXPECT -SN TO TAPER TO SCT -SHSN OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT DEPARTS. MDL DIFFERENCES ARISE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ETA...AS USUAL...MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD AIR DROPPING H85 TEMPS 4-6C MORE THAN NGM/AVN WITH CORRESPONDINGLY HIGHER INVERSION HGTS. WL GO WITH COMPROMISE WEIGHTED TOWARD NGM/AVN. ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR SHSN WITH DLT/T TO AROUND 20C. 300-330 FLOW WL FAVOR ONT-P59 AND AREAS EAST OF MQT. WL KEEP MENTION OF WINDY CONDITIONS FOR LATE TONIGHT WITH BNDRY LYR WINDS OF 25-30 KTS AND STRONG CAA. .MQT...NONE. JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY 915 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2000 NW/SE SFC RDG ACRS NEW ENG AT 01Z WHILE SFC FNT EXTENDED FM SRN QUE TO JUST N OF GRTLKS. 00Z KALY SOUNDING MAINTAINED DRY WEDGE IN LOWEST 35 HND FT OR SO WHILE KBUF WAS SHOWING GREATER DISTRIBUTION OF LOW-MID LVL MSTR. SFC DWPNTS ARE DEPICTING A GRADUAL UPTICK...BUT LATEST RUC RUN SHOWS VOT MAX ROAMING THRU SRN SXNS OF NY THRU BAL OF EVNG. LOOKS LIKE SOME BACKPEDALLING IN ORDER ON OVRNGT POPS PER RADAR COVERAGE TRENDS. KLZK SOUNDING DID HAVE H8 JET OF 47 KTS OUT OF THE SW THIS EVNG. FOR MON...MODELS BRING THAT H8 JET CORE ACRS NY AND INTENSIFY IT ACRS VT TWD THE END OF THE PD...ATTM SEEMS CURRENT FCST TREATMENT OUGHT TO COVER SITUATION. MCKINLEY/GEW .ALY...NY ERN/VT EXTRM SRN/MA EXTRM WRN/CT NW...NONE. ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 933 PM EST SUN JAN 9 2000 A NUMBER OF FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SURFACE REPORTS CONTINUE TO SHOW CWFA IN A WEAK WEDGE CONFIGURATION...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN MIDDLE 40S MOST AREAS...WHILE DISCERNIBLE SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH ATTEMPTING TO LIFT NORTHWARD; DEWPOINT AT COLUMBIA IS 56. CURRENT CONVECTION ON KGSP 88-D AND SURROUNDING RADARS MOVING WITH THE MEAN WIND...WITH HIGHER REFELECTIVITIES (AND LIGHTNING) SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. LATEST RUC THETA E PLOT TAKES THE AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE INTO OUR SOUTHEAST MOST CWFA (INCLUDING CHARLOTTE METRO AREA) AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT KEEPS HOLD OF A DEFINITE WEDGE CONFIGURATION IN NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS SOUTH TO GSP/AND UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DISPLAYED ON 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS; OFTEN MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE NORTHEAST OF CWFA CAUSES AGEOSTROPHIC SURFACE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE DAMMING REGION THAT RESULT IN KEEPING FOOTHILLS VERY STABLE UNTIL LATE. WATER VAPOR LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW ONE SHORTWAVE LOSING ITS INFLUENCE ON CWFA WHILE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CAUSE OUR WEATHER TO GET INTERESTING CONTINUES DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OVERLAY OF 18Z MESO-ETA MID LEVEL ANALYSES SHOW SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE ON SCHEDULE...BUT BASED ON 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS...UPPER LEVEL WIND ENERGY A TAD STRONGER THAN FORECAST... WITH PLUME OF 50KT 70H WINDS EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO ARKANSAS... WHEREAS 12Z MODELS PROJECTED WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 45 KTS IN THE SAME AREA BY 00Z. PEACHTREE CITY AND GREENSBORO SOUNDINGS BOTH CAPPED AT 00Z... ALTHOUGH THE INVERSION AT PEACHTREE CITY MUCH WEAKER...WITH EVIDENCE OF SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR ALOFT PRESENT THERE. UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A POTENT LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE...ONE THAT FREQUENTLY PRODUCES WEAK TORNADOES IN OUR CWFA WHEN SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE PRESENT WITH STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENTS. ALTHOUGH THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN AFFECTING CWFA MONDAY MORNING AT A TIME WHEN WE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WOULD NOT EXPECT THUNDER...WE WILL KEEP THUNDER IN ALL ZONES AS PRESENTLY ADVERTISED WITH THIS UPDATE... INCLUDING THUNDER CHANCE IN CHARLOTTE GROUPING...WHERE RUC TAKES HIGHER DEWPOINTS EARLIER THAN ZONES TO ITS WEST. NEXT CONCERN IS MOUNTAIN WINDS. OBVIOUSLY...WINDS ALOFT STRONGER THAN FORECAST UPSTREAM BUT THE PRESENCE OF INVERSION AT PEACHTREE CITY MAKES ME SUSPICIOUS ABOUT GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING UNTIL NEAR DAYBREAK. AT THIS JUNCTURE...PLAN TO LOWER MOUNTAIN WINDS TO BREEZY...10 TO 20 AND GUSTY. MIDNIGHT SHIFT SHOULD GET A CHANCE TO ANALYZE UPSTREAM ACTIVITY AND POST WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE THE HIGHER WINDS DEVELOP...IF NECESSARY. WITH RUC INSISTING THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ACROSS MIDLANDS WILL CONTINUE A PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST...FEEL TEMPERATURES HAVE PROBABLY ALREADY REACHED THEIR LOWS AND WILL CHANGE ZONES TO REFLECT NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. GSP WILL ISSUE UPDATED SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK LATER THIS EVENING. .GSP...NONE. BURRUS sc NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO 345 AM MST MONDAY JANUARY 10 2000 SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: WHAT A NIGHT WE HAD UP IN THE N-CNTRL MTNS OF CO...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE DRIVING CONDITIONS. AUTOMATED WIND SENSORS ATOP LOVELAND AND BERTHOUD PASSES AND AT THE EISENHOWER TUNNEL HV MEASURED GUSTS BTWN 70 AND 85 MPH SINCE MIDNIGHT. A CALL UP TO IKE TUNNEL SHRTLY AFT 10Z REVEALED BLIZZARD CNDTNS GOING ON. TUNNEL PERSONNEL SAID WINDS WERE SO STRONG MUCH OF THE FALLEN SNOW (ABOUT 6-8 INCHES SINCE 6PM SAT) HAD BLOWN OFF AND PILED UP INTO DEEP DRIFTS ALONG SIDE I-70 AT THE EAST PORTAL OF THE TUNNEL. WINDS HV NOT BEEN AS STG IN THE FTHLS...ALTHOUGH GUSTS IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HRS HV BEEN IN THE 30 TO 65 MPH RANGE. HV NOT SEEN MUCH WIND ON THE PLNS...XCPT FOR LCL GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH ARND LYONS...GOLDEN AND W SIDE OF FT COLLINS UP NR HORSETOOTH RESERVOIR. SEE A CONTINUATION OF STG W-NWLY WNDS AND PDS OF SNOW/HVY AT TIMES IN THE MTNS AND HIR FNT RNG FTHLS FOR THE REST OF TODAY WITH 120-130KT JET REMAINING OVRHD. CLOUDS APR TO HV THINNED A BIT IN THE HIGH COUNTRY PAST HR OR SO BUT RUC AND 06Z/ETA RH/SPEC HUM CROSS SECTIONS SHOW LOW TO MID-LVL MOISTURE INCREASING AGAIN THIS MRNG AS NXT WV OF PAC MSTR DROPS SEWRD OUT OF ID. OROGRAPHIC SNOW MDL FOR THE PD 4AM-4PM TODAY CAME UP WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4-10 INCHES ON UPR W-NW SLOPES IN MTN ZNS 33/34 USING A 16:1 WATER TO SNOW RATIO. DOUBT WE'LL SEE UPR SNOW AMT WITH MID-LVL WAA INCREASING STATIC STABILITY NR MTN TOP LVL AND WITH WK DOWNWARD QG FORCING MOVG OVR AREA DURING AFTN HRS. SUSPECT NEW SNOW AMTS MORE ON THE ORDER OF 4-8 INCHES ON OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED SLOPES AND AN ADDITIONAL 1-4 INCHES IN THE VLYS. THEREFORE WITH STG NWLY WINDS AND SNOW XPCTD TO CONT TODAY WILL CONT WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ZNS 33 AND 34. WILL ALSO CONT HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY FOR FNT RNG FTHLS WITH STRONGEST GUSTS (IN THE 60-80 MPH RNG) PROBABLY CONFINED TO AREAS ABV 8500 FT MSL. WILL KP GUSTY WNDS IN FOR ADJCNT LOWER ELEVTNS WHERE LCL GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE PSBL WITHIN CHINOOK WIND ZONE W OF I-25. OTWS... XPCT TO SEE A WIDE RNG IN TEMPS ACRS THE PLNS DUE TO WARMING EFFECTS OF ADIABATIC COMPRESSION ALG THE FTHLS. OVRALL MOS TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE. BAKER LONG TERM DISCUSSION: SNOW AND BLOW FCST FOR MTNS INTO TUES STILL LOOKS GUD AS STG 120-130KT JET OVER AREA. MODELS AGREE VERY WELL THAT FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK TO WLY TUES AND BECOME WSWLY WED. ENUF MSTR AVBL WITH STG ORGRPHC LIFTING PLUS PSBLY SOME MORE CSI BANDS TO EXTEND WNTR STRM WARNG THRU TNGT. BLIZZARD WRNG MIGHT BE LITTLE MORE APPROPRIATE...BUT WHY CONFUSE THE ISSUE SNC WNTR STRM WARNING ALREADY IN EFFECT. AS PREV SHIFTS STATED DO EXPECT SNOW TO DCRS TMW AS FLOW BACKS AND WKNS SLGTLY WITH JET LIFTING NWD INTO WY. SHT WVS EMBEDDED IN FLOW MVG TO RPDLY TO TIME PROPERLY AND NOT EVEN SURE CAN DISCERN THEM THAT WELL IN THIS STG WIND PTRN THRFR BROADBRUSH OF SNOW SNOW/BLWG SNOW/WINDY WILL BE WAY TO WORD ZONES. AS FOR SNOW AMTS WILL SEE ANOTHER 2-4 OR 5 INCHES TNGT IN MTNS WITH LESSER AMTS IN ZONES 30...32...37 AS WAA STBLZS AMS AND REDUCES IMPACT OF STG ORGRPHC LIFTING. IN ERN CO PCPN NOT A PRBLM WITH STG CHINOOK IN EFFECT BUT QUESTION IS WHAT TO DO ABOUT HI WIND WRNG IN FTHLS. WITH JET OVERHEAD STILL VULNERABLE TO MOMENTUM TRANSFER INTO FTHL AREAS TNGT HWVR WAA MEANS TEMP PROFILE NOT FAVORABLE TO TRAP MTN WAVE ENERGY AS ALREADY STATED IN PREV AFDS. ON THE FENCE ABOUT EXTENDING IT INTO TONIGHT BUT HAVE DECIDED TO LET IT DIE SINCE TIME SXNS SHOW PEAK WINDS TNGT AROUND 60 KTS. WILL MENTN GUSTS TO NEAR 70 MPH. LOWER ELVNS WILL HAVE EVEN LOWER GUSTS BECAUSE OF UNFAVORABLE STABILITY PROFILE PLUS SFC GRADIENT SHUD BE EASING ESPCLY IF WEAK SURGE/CD FNT ARVS AS HINTED AT BY MDLS. FOR LONGER TERM FLAT RDG TO MOVE INTO ROCKIES THURS AS TROF DVLPS FURTHER OVER ERN PAC. THIS WILL PUSH JET EVEN FURTHER N OF CO BUT STILL SHUD BE STG ENUF GRAD TO KEEP GUSTY WINDS IN MTNS TIL THURS. MSTR TO DCRS WITH BACKING FLOW HWVR STILL ENUF TO KEEP CHC IN MTNS THRU EFP PD AS ORGRPHCS STILL IN FORCE ALBEIT WEAKER. DWNSLP FLOW IN ERN CO SO NO POPS THRU EFP BUT A WEAK CD FNT TO MOVE INTO AREA WED NGT/ERLY THURS WITH SFC HI MOVING ACRS NRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WHICH MAY GENERATE BRF UPSLP PERIOD HERE. THIS TO LOWER TEMPS FEW DEGREES THURS OTRW SHUD BE UNSEASONABLY MILD TUES-FRI. BOODA .DEN...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ZONES 33 AND 34. ...HIGH WIND WARNING TODAY FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS ZONES 35 AND 36. ...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ZONES 30..32..AND 37. co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 945 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2000 STILL DON/T FEEL THAT I HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SITN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. AREAS OF DZ/FZDZ HAVE DEVELOPED ACRS MY FCST AREA. IN ADDITION...SOME -RA HAS DEVELOPED IN E-C WI. EXAMINATION OF LAPS SOUNDINGS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS FOR GRB SUGGEST THAT THE MOIST LAYER WL REMAIN AOA -10C THROUGH 09Z...SO THERE WL PROBABLY NOT BE ANY ICE CRYSTALS INTRODUCED INTO THE COLUMN...AND PCPN SHOULD FALL AS A LIQUID WHICH WL FREEZE ON CONTACT IN AREAS WHERE SFC TEMPS REMAIN BLO FREEZING. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CHANGE TO FROZEN PCPN AT AUW/RHI WL OCCUR EARLIER. HV ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS OF ROADWAYS ICING UP OVER NE WI. AM CONCERNED THAT A BAND FROM C-NE WI COULD GET A DECENT PERIOD OF FZDZ BEFORE PCPN CHANGES. N-C WI LIKELY TO CHANGE SOONER...BUT SOME FZDZ LIKELY THERE ALSO. WL BE ISSUING A WINTER WX ADV FOR NC/NE/C WI AND EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR E-C WI INTO EARLY MONDAY. UPDATED ZFP/WSW/NOW WL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. COORD W LSE...DLH...AND MQT. .GRB...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WIZ022-038>040-048>050- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WIZ005-010>013-018>021-030-031-035>037-045- SKOWRONSKI WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 924 PM CST SUN JAN 9 2000 UPDATED ZONES TO CANCEL DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND UPDATE TIMING OF LGT PRECIP. DRIZZLE AND RAIN ARE MOVG ACRS MOST OF THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF SFC TROF NOW THRU WRN MN AND WRN IA. PRECIP ALIGNED WITH GOOD UPR LVL H3 DIVERGENCE DEPICTED BY THE 00Z RUC. ENHANCED CLDS ON IR SATELLITE IMAGRY MARK AREA WELL. THE PRECIP HAS HELPED RAISE VSBYS ABV 1/4 MILE AT MANY LOCATIONS IN THE ADV AREA...THO 1/4 MILE OR LESS IS STILL POSSIBLE IN SOME SPOTS UNTIL TROF MOVS THRU OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE DROPPED ADV AND MADE MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE IN ZONES. SFC TEMPS TO STAY ABOVE FZG WITH TEMPS HLDG GNRLY IN MID 30S AND 40S ON OUR DOORSTEP IN ILLINOIS...SO PCPN SHUD STAY LIQUID. .MKX...NONE. $$ REM wi NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO 235 PM MST MON JAN 10 2000 SHORT TERM DISCUSSION: CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SNOW IS LETTING UP IN THE MOUNTAINS. IR SATELLITE PICS INDICATES SOME DRYING IN NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST COLORADO...BUT ANOTHER BATCH HEADED FOR THE STATE IN NORTHERN NEVADA WHICH SHOULD REACH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. SOME WARM ADVECTION WILL LOWER LAPSE RATES AND THUS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. SNOW MODEL YIELDING ANOTHER 3-6 INCHES TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE OVERDONE A TAD CONSIDERING SOME WARM ADVECTION. STILL ENOUGH SNOW AND ESPECIALLY WIND TO KEEP HIGHLIGHTS GOING AT LEAST FOR THIS EVENING. WINDS HAVE DECREASED FOR THE TIME BEING AS STRONG SURGE HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS. LEE TROF APPEARS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF BY LATE TONIGHT SO DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH WIND THREAT LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP AGAIN IN/NEAR THE FOOTHILLS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS STABILITY STRUCTURE BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. CSI RELATED SNOW BROKE OUT ON THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AFFECTED AREAS HAS REMAINED PRETTY SMALL WITH BANDED NATURE. RUC CONTINUES TO INDICATE CSI ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED. THUS...WILL ONLY HAVE SCATTERED POPS. BARJENBRUCH LONG TERM DISCUSSION: SATELLITE PICS SHOWING STRONG UPR LVL JET NOSING INTO CO...BUT LATEST INDICATIONS SHOWING JET LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH WK RIDGING AND WAA PATTERN TO CLICK ON IN ERNEST ON TUE. THIS CONFIRMED BY UPSTREAM ACARS DATA OVER PAC NW COAST AND WESTERN GREAT BASIN. MODELS ALSO SHOWING WAA PATTERN FOR TUE. PRESS FALLS WILL BEGIN LATER TNT EAST OF MTNS AND FLOW PATTERN BACKING MORE WESTERLY WITH TIME. MORE HI WINDS TO CONTEND WITH AGAIN FOR MTNS/FOOTHILLS/ADJ PLAIN AREAS LATE TNT AND TUE AS STABILITY AND SHEAR CHARACTERISTICS IMPROVE TOWARDS 12Z FOR MORE MTN WAVE CONDITIONS. 700MB WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 50-60KT RANGE AND WITH SO-SO PROFILE FOR MTN WAVE CONDITIONS EXPECT AT LEAST A HI WIND WATCH IS NEEDED FOR LATE TNT AND TUE. FURTHER EAST ON THE PLAINS...STRENGTHENING GRADIENT BUT MOST WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE SHOULD SUFFICE. WARMING TREND FOR THE PLAINS NEXT TWO DAYS WITH READINGS WARMING UP INTO THE 50S. AS FOR THE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MTNS...BUT INTENSITIES AND AMOUNTS WILL BE LESSENED AS LAPSE RATES LOWER TO 5-6C/KM AND JET DYNAMICS LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER...STRONG OROGRAPHICS WILL KEEP SOME ACCUM GOING. NO NEED TO ISSUE HILITES FOR TUE AT THIS POINT...BUT AN ADVISORY MAY STILL BE NEEDED. LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE WEEK...A SCREAMING WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU THU...THEN MORE RIDGING WITH A RETURN TO A SW FLOW ALF WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVR ERN PAC. MTNS SHOULD BE DRYING OUT SOME FOR THE EXTENDED PRD. ENTREKIN .DEN...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT FOR NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ZONES 33 AND 34. ...HIGH WIND WATCH LATE TONIGHT AND TUE FOR THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS...ZONES 35 AND 36...AND ADJ AREAS OF FOOTHILLS 38>40 FOR TUE. ...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND NORTHERN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS UNTIL MIDNIGHT... ZONES 30..32..35..AND 37. co SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO 214 AM MST MON JAN 10 2000 ...MAIN CONCERNS THIS FCST PERIOD ARE THE WINDS AND THE SNOW IN OUR N MTNS... CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION...RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES MAIN JET CORE RUNNING WNW-ESE ACROSS WY INTO NE CO...WITH A SLIGHT NWD DRIFT THE LAST FEW HOURS. SFC OBS INDICATE WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING...WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN MTNS AND AREAS ADJACENT TO EAST SLOPES. SHORT TERM FCST DISCUSSION...ALL GRIDDED DATA...BOTH EXPERIMENTAL AND OPERATIONAL...INDICATE WINDS WILL SLACKEN THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT (BUT NOT END) IN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS. ALTHOUGH THETA PROFILES WILL BECOME BETTER LATE TONIGHT FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS...SFC PRESSURE FIELDS WEAKEN ALONG WITH WND SPEEDS AT 700 MBS. CONSENSUS IN THE OFFICE IS TO DROP THE HIGH WIND WARNING FOR OUR CWA. STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MEANT IN MTNS AREAS WHERE PEOPLE ACTUALLY LIVE. MORE STRONG WINDS REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA MIGHT BE POSSIBLE FOR TOMORROW...AND THIS IS DISCUSSED BELOW. AS FOR THE S&BS ADVISORY...WILL PLAN ON KEEPING IT GOING FOR ZONES 58 AND 59. SAT PIX INDICATE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE MTNS AND THIS LIKELY NOT TO ABATE FOR AWHILE. METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN NEXT 48 HOURS IS JET ORIENTATION...THAT IS WE WILL TRANSISTION FROM A NW FLOW TO A MORE WEST FLOW. SPEED OF FLOW OVER STATE TO REMAIN GENERALLY THE SAME WITH THE MAX OVER N COLORADO. AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER... WINDS COULD PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW AS CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE FOR STRONG SFC WINDS...THAT IS: ANOTHER SPEED MAX MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...THE SHEAR PROFILE ALOFT BECOMES SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...AND THE STABILITY BECOMES FAVORABLE AT MTN TOP LVL (THETA PACKING). FOR THESE REASONS A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE NECESSARY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE...STRONGEST WINDS TOMORROW SHOULD BE AROUND 9 AM TO 3 PM. DURING WEDNESDAY...JET BEGINS TO BUCKLE NWD AS DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EPAC AND MOVES EAST. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US IS THAT SFC TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. IT WILL STILL BE WINDY AT TIMES...BUT NOT AS WINDY AS TODAY. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY AS JET DROPS SOUTH AS SYSTEM OVER PACIFIC MOVES CLOSER TO AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NUISANCE. OCCNL SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MTNS...WITH THE SAN JUANS STARTING TO GET INTO THE ACT. THNXS DEN AND GJT (ESPECIALLY FOR THE HEADS UP ON MONARCH) HODANISH .PUB...BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY ZONES 58/59 TONIGHT. ...HIGH WIND WATCH 65>75 LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 1105 AM MST MON JAN 10 2000 ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS UP A FEW DEGREES NORTHEASTERN ZONES AND PLACED WIND GUSTS IN 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE LEE OF FRONT RANGES AND NORTHEAST QUARTER TO REFLECT LATEST RUC2 OUTPUT AND CURRENT OBS. 38 .ABQ...NONE. nm AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 315 PM EST MON JAN 10 2000 NOT A LOT OF TIME TDY FOR DISCUSSION. CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVR WRN PA WHERE INSTABILITY STRONGEST BENEATH UPPER LVL COLD POOL. THIS HAS BEEN STEADILY PROGRESSING NORTH AND E. LTNG STRIKES NOW SHOWING UP IN WRN NY AND OVR NRN NYS. EXPECT FROPA LATE THIS AFTN AND LIKELY TO SEE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE DAY WITH AND JUST BEHIND FNT AN STRONG SUBSIDENCE DVLPS. STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SEEN IN RUC TROP PRESS AND UPPER LVL PV FIELDS WHICH MOVE ACRS CWA THIS EVE. UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH JET NOW MOVING TWRD COAST AND SECONDARY DEVELPMNT FORMING OVR SERN PA AS 11 MB/3HR FALLS TAKING OVER AND BECOMING STRONGER THAN FALLS WITH MAIN LOW OVR GRT LAKES. SUBSEQUENTLY SFC LOW DVLOPING AND CAUSING SFC PRESS GRAD TO WEAKEN OVR ERN PA AND SERN NY. NOT REALLY SEEING A LOT OF STRONG WINDS ACROSS PA AND NY EVEN WITH THE CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED. OUR 88D VAD WINDS SHOW 50 KTS AT 4000 FEET AND THIS WON'T BE TAPPED UNTIL WE GET SOME STRONG SUBSIDENCE WHEN FNT COMES THRU. EVEN THEN AM EXPECTING GUSTS TO ONLY REACH 35-45 MPH WHICH IS UNDER HIGH WND ADVY. WILL THEREFORE CONT TO PLAY THE ISOLD SVR GUST WITH CONVECTION SCENARIO AND HIGHLIGHT STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS WITH SPS. OTHER HIGHLIGHT IS POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT THAT WILL DEVELOP AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO RGN. COORD WITH BUF FOR PORTIONS OF N CNTRL NYS TUE NGT AND WED. 850 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -12C UNDER STRONG 40-50 KT NWLY FLOW. INITIALLY THE BAND MAY TRANSITION THRU NRN ONEIDA TOO QUICKLY FOR SUBSTANTIAL LES CRITERIA BUT DID NOT WANT TO CREATE A "HOLE" IN WATCH AREA. BETTER LES EVENT WILL BE FOR SYR-UCA AREAS WHERE NWLY FLOW IS MORE PROLONGED AND ATTM AM THINKING MORE LIKE ADVY CRITERIA. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF FLOW IS TOO STRONG FOR LES WITH PROGGED 850 WINDS APPROACHING 50 KTS. .BGM...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH TUE NIGHT AND WED...NYZ018-036-037-009. HOLMES ny