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000 FXUS04 KWBC 141952 QPFPFD QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 351 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2009 PRELIM DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION VALID MAR 15/0000 UTC THRU MAR 18/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1... ...NWRN U.S... A MULTI DAY HEAVY PCPN EVENT UNDERWAY ACRS THE NWRN U.S. AS A SERIES OF NERN PAC HT FALLS WL ROTATE EWD TOWARD THE NWRN U.S. ON THE SRN SIDE OF THE MEAN MID TO UPR VORTEX OVR THE NERN PAC. THIS WL SUPPORT SUSTAINED ONSHORE FLOW DURG THE DAY 1 PERIOD. ONSHORE FLOW WL STRENGTHEN EARLY DAY 1 ASSOC WITH THE LEAD VORT MOVG TOWARD THE PAC NW COAST. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN SAT NIGHT BEFORE STRENGTHENING AGAIN EARLY SUN AS A MORE POTENT SFC WAVE PUSHES TOWARD THE WA COAST. THE STRONGEST MOISTURE FLUX DAY 1 IS AIMED AT OREGON SWD INTO NWRN CA....WITH AREAL AVG PCPN AMTS OF 2-3"+ DEPICTED THRU THE OR CASCADES/COAST RANGE AND INTO NWRN CA. LIGHTER PCPN AMTS EXPECTED FARTHER NWD THRU THE WA CASCADES/COAST RANGE AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM NERN OR...NERN WA...CNTRL TO NRN ID AND NWRN MT. FOR QPF DETAILS...THE DAY 1 QPF FOLLOWED THE HEAVIER ECMWF AND SREF MEAN. ...CNTRL GULF COAST...SERN U.S...MID ATL... AN AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PW VALUES EXPECTED TO PERSIST DAY 1 FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST...NEWD INTO THE SERN U.S. AND SRN MID ATL. WELL DEFINED LARGE SCALE UVVS IN THIS MOISTURE AXIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS SHRTWV ENERGY PUSHES NEWD IN THE BROAD SWLY MID TO UPR LEVEL FLOW ACRS THESE AREAS. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGRMNT IN THE LATEST OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE WITH THE AXIS OF MAX PCPN FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST INTO THE SRN MID ATL..WITH AREAL AVG .50-1"+ AMTS DEPICTED. FOR QPF DETAILS THE ECMWF AND SREF MEAN WERE USED. ...NRN MAINE... AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BNDRY FCST TO DROP SEWD FROM QB INTO NRN MAINE THIS PERIOD. ENHANCED UVVS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BNDRY WL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR NRN MAINE. THE OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE AGREE THAT LIQUID EQUIVALENTS WL BE LIGHT...MOSTLY LESS THAN .10"...WITH THE DAY 1 QPF NOT DEVIATING FROM THIS CONSENSUS. DAYS 2 AND 3... ...GULF CST STATES THROUGH THE OH VLY AND MID ATLC REGION... NO MAJOR CHANGES COMPARED TO THE PREV FORECAST. A POSITIVELY TILTED SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH...WILL EJECT FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE EAST BEFORE REACHING THE ERN SEABOARD BY TUES MORNING. THE RESULTANT WILL BE AN UNSETTLED/WET PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE SOUTHEAST THRU TUES AS THE MID LVL ENERGY INTERACTS WITH MOIST SWLY LOW/MID LVL FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL BE OVERRUNNING A RATHER LARGE DOME OF MODESTLY COLD AIR WHICH SHOULD FOSTER AN EXPANSIVE AXIS OF LGT TO MDT RAINS. WARM SECTOR CONVECTION HOWEVER IS LIKELY CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST...AND HENCE HEAVIER RAINFALL AMTS CAN BE EXPECTED HERE LOCALLY. HPC FOLLOWED A NON-GFS CONSENSUS ACRS THE EAST WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH...LED PRIMARILY BY THE 00Z ECMWF...AND WITH THE 12Z GFS APPEARING TO BE TOO PROGRESSIVE. ...PAC NW AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... A DEEP VORTEX INVOF THE GULF OF AK WILL HELP TRANSPORT A SERIES OF SHRTWV IMPULSES UNDERNEATH IT AND EWD INTO THE PAC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PD. EACH IMPULSE WILL ACCOMPANIED BY COPIOUS AMTS OF MOISTURE AND GIVEN RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER LVL JET DYNAMICS...MDT TO HVY OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED PCPN CAN BE EXPECTED. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ACRS SWRN OR AND NWRN CA WHERE PERSISTENT DEEP LYR ONSHORE FLOW AND ENHANCED FORCING ASSOC WITH A FRONT SHOULD AFFORD HVY RAINFALL RATES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE LED BY THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS ALSO SUGGEST SUFFICIENT H85/H7 MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT PCPN DOWNWIND INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...PARTICULARLY THE SAWTOOTH...BITTERROOTS AND TETONS. THIS GENERAL PCPN AXIS OF HEAVIER QPF WILL ALSO TEND TO FOCUS IN THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET AS IT PUSHES INLAND WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS. MEANWHILE...RELATIVELY LOW SNOW LVLS WILL HELP FOSTER HVY ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE CASCADES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED TERRAIN OF THE NRN ROCKIES. HPC QPF FAVORED A SOLN GENERALLY CLOSE TO THAT OF THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS...GIVEN THE PREFERRED MASS FIELDS OVER THE 12Z NAM. ORAVEC/ORRISON GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV 24HR QP VT 16/00Z 0.01 486685 484679 482675 477672 472669 465668 462676 460684 460691 461701 464707 465713 465731 468741 471750 473752 474757 475766 479805 483828 485834 486841 487847 490850 494855 499857 504859 506853 504841 505831 503821 501807 501800 498788 496767 493756 492745 490737 491731 490727 491717 489706 488698 486687 486685 0.01 531224 534216 536207 536198 535191 532185 530181 524173 519163 513155 498140 493134 486128 481125 476124 467128 463127 460123 457112 455106 452102 444097 439096 436094 430088 427086 425088 425091 428102 427118 430122 434120 437120 441123 444126 445133 447137 446139 443138 436135 428139 427143 424149 418154 412162 410169 412176 415180 439170 445178 439183 436187 437193 440202 438206 434205 431202 427199 419195 416197 414202 412208 407206 400201 389198 386195 382193 378195 377201 380207 393220 373213 368213 364217 363219 365223 368232 370236 375238 385242 390247 398253 408258 418263 423264 429265 437266 444265 461262 466261 470262 479266 488274 495282 497284 500287 502287 506287 510285 514277 517269 519261 520252 519245 516240 515234 513228 510223 508218 506211 509212 513216 520224 523227 525229 528229 531224 0.01 403719 402712 399705 394697 386693 378698 372706 365715 362723 358732 353739 348746 340762 333780 325797 321803 315809 309815 303822 299829 296837 293847 291855 288863 284870 273883 263896 259902 254910 249924 243939 241946 239954 239959 240965 242975 246983 251989 256994 264997 267995 270992 274987 276983 280980 289977 296971 301966 306959 314955 320949 324943 324929 325918 327910 329902 333894 337887 339883 344881 349886 355896 357899 360902 366902 371901 377895 379892 380886 381873 381868 383863 389856 395849 399839 405822 408813 411802 412793 412780 411768 409754 406736 403719 0.25 526198 523191 520184 513171 494147 491140 487134 481132 476131 474133 474137 476139 483142 484146 482151 476150 467143 463141 459142 456147 452150 448149 442145 439144 436144 434147 432151 433154 436161 446170 449178 447186 447191 450194 453193 462183 466177 468175 471174 494185 502186 507189 519199 522201 525199 526198 0.25 512261 513252 512248 508236 504226 501214 496205 491203 485203 476206 468208 462206 459208 457211 452213 444213 437213 432209 425204 421204 421207 421214 419221 414215 406211 399206 392202 389202 387204 388209 393214 402219 404221 405224 404228 400228 394227 387223 384224 382227 382231 385235 392241 408252 414255 419257 430258 438258 446257 454255 464254 474256 485260 489263 493267 499275 502277 504276 505266 512261 0.25 444109 444108 441106 438107 438108 438109 441110 444111 444109 0.25 389741 386731 382727 379725 375725 368731 360743 354757 349768 344781 339792 332805 315825 303847 292868 281893 277903 272915 263938 262944 262952 264960 268963 276962 283961 289958 294954 299942 305930 314906 319894 325883 333873 343863 354856 362853 370849 377836 379830 381824 384809 385794 385778 388761 390751 389741 0.50 509255 510249 508244 504234 500225 498213 495209 490208 480208 473210 470211 464210 460211 457213 455214 450214 442215 437214 432212 426209 422221 421226 419229 417228 414223 413219 409216 405214 402212 397207 391205 391207 393211 397214 404217 407221 407227 404231 402231 397232 394234 395239 398242 406247 413251 423254 430255 437254 446253 461249 471249 479252 484251 485244 481236 476226 476224 478223 483224 492229 496238 501245 506254 509255 0.50 486165 485160 479157 475154 472150 468146 465144 462146 461152 462157 467161 469164 475166 478168 482169 486165 0.50 452172 453167 453163 454159 453156 452155 450153 447151 445150 444149 442147 439146 436148 436149 435152 435154 436156 438159 440161 443163 446166 448170 449171 451173 452172 0.50 380750 380745 379741 375737 369739 366743 362748 359754 354765 348786 344797 339805 311840 301857 291877 284895 280905 278916 275925 274932 274937 278940 282942 284944 286944 290942 295933 300923 302914 308902 312894 318886 332868 338861 347853 356848 363843 367838 368833 369827 368813 370801 372789 377769 379759 380750 1.00 478243 479239 479237 477234 476233 474233 473235 471236 472239 474242 475242 478243 478243 1.00 464238 462231 461228 464225 469219 465214 461214 455216 448217 440217 434217 430217 426219 424221 424223 428231 425234 422234 414232 410233 407235 402239 409245 414248 423250 428251 436250 449246 456244 461242 464238 1.00 469153 468149 467153 467154 469153 1.00 445154 444153 441153 440153 441154 444155 445154 1.00 368761 364759 360766 357784 353800 350809 348816 343822 337828 332833 324840 311851 305856 302863 297876 293884 290891 288898 287902 288907 291907 294905 299899 308888 314882 320875 328864 340851 346847 352841 356834 356830 354828 352822 350817 354810 360794 365778 368769 368764 368761 1.50 464221 464218 461217 455217 452218 446218 440218 437219 431220 427221 427225 429228 435232 437234 439231 444228 447227 450226 457225 461224 464221 1.50 447241 442239 437234 434234 431236 428236 422235 416234 412235 409238 410242 415245 420247 426248 430248 435246 438245 442244 447241 1.50 351832 350829 349829 347830 346831 345835 347838 349838 349837 350834 351832 1.50 322865 319862 317863 310861 306865 302871 300876 297882 297888 300888 306883 312879 316874 319869 322865 2.00 462220 460219 457218 456219 457221 460222 462220 2.00 452222 451221 448220 445220 442219 439221 436221 435221 436225 438226 441227 444226 447226 448225 451222 452222 2.00 432244 431240 430240 428238 425237 422236 419235 416235 415235 413238 412238 413239 415242 418244 421245 423246 426246 429246 432244 3.00 427243 424240 422239 419239 417240 418241 421243 424243 427243 24HR QP VT 17/00Z 0.01 524261 514219 515215 519214 526216 529219 532221 534220 536216 537210 538201 537197 536189 532180 530176 528170 522163 515155 507146 500140 495135 492131 485125 483125 479121 478120 480115 482112 486110 498111 501107 503103 504099 503094 502087 497072 497068 493067 489075 483081 480085 475083 472080 470077 469073 468059 465051 463047 459047 456049 453051 453058 453067 451069 447068 440066 438067 438070 438073 441075 447081 449085 447088 441086 435086 430085 424084 421088 422094 423100 420110 417114 416117 416121 418127 419130 418134 416142 413145 406149 403151 403155 411157 415160 417164 419166 417168 415171 413175 415180 416185 419189 423192 422196 416196 413196 408198 405200 400198 394194 384190 379189 376191 374196 376202 380211 384215 378218 373214 370217 368220 370229 373235 378242 381245 386249 395255 401258 407259 417262 426263 434262 448258 458256 470261 481266 487274 493280 496282 498288 502294 505297 509297 512294 0.01 487197 489191 488188 484186 479184 474180 468181 464187 458190 454197 454201 456204 465205 468205 471202 478199 481200 484197 487197 0.01 419785 419778 416773 411767 403766 396768 391771 386769 378762 378755 379750 379742 377721 373719 371720 367718 363720 354726 346730 340736 334745 328759 323766 321772 318783 315792 308808 302821 299828 295834 284849 277863 272877 268884 267887 269892 270895 269899 267903 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456244 468243 477247 482252 484255 491265 499274 502276 504272 504267 503262 500257 497254 495249 492243 489240 485239 482239 480236 476232 471231 468227 469223 474221 478221 485222 489226 492230 493236 496241 500248 503253 506259 508262 511262 512261 0.50 487139 486137 484134 483133 481132 478133 477133 476137 477138 480138 481138 483139 486140 487139 0.50 476163 478160 476157 473153 471149 468143 463140 457141 449146 445146 442143 439141 436144 434147 434156 435160 437165 445171 449175 451177 454176 457164 460161 464160 472164 476163 0.50 452118 455114 455110 454105 453101 453100 450101 447102 444101 441099 438099 437100 435103 434104 433108 435112 438112 441114 443115 445117 446118 449120 452118 452118 0.50 359762 358756 356751 353749 348749 343753 339757 335765 329780 322798 317811 311828 295857 293865 292873 290884 288891 285899 284907 284912 286917 288920 292921 298918 304913 312906 318900 325887 329879 332868 347838 349830 348820 350800 351791 353783 356773 359762 359762 1.00 505244 505243 503238 502237 500233 500232 499227 498225 496222 496221 495222 494226 495230 495231 497235 497236 499239 502242 502243 504244 505244 1.00 463221 460218 458218 455218 453218 451218 449218 446218 443218 442219 440223 442225 444226 447226 449225 451225 454223 454222 457221 460222 463221 1.00 456155 457152 456151 454151 453151 450152 447152 444150 443149 441148 439146 437148 436152 436156 438159 440161 443163 446164 449164 451163 452162 454159 455156 456155 1.00 428243 428239 422235 414230 414224 413217 402213 394210 401218 404220 404224 403228 396231 394236 397241 405247 411248 416247 424246 428243 1.00 343778 341776 338779 335783 329795 320819 317829 312843 307852 301864 301870 300875 294887 288898 289904 294904 304898 310894 314889 320879 322873 323866 324860 326855 335844 338839 340833 341825 341819 341811 342804 343789 343778 1.50 445158 444154 441151 438152 438153 438154 439157 441158 443159 445158 1.50 425243 424238 419235 414233 412231 412227 413222 410219 407221 406229 403232 400235 399238 401240 406244 412245 417246 421245 425243 1.50 315874 315871 312868 309868 307870 304874 302878 299882 297886 294890 292893 291897 293899 296897 299895 303891 305888 308886 311882 314877 315874 2.00 423242 422239 419237 417236 416236 413235 411232 409230 409226 410222 410221 409222 409226 408229 407233 404235 403236 403240 404240 406242 409242 412243 415244 417244 418244 421243 423242 24HR QP VT 18/00Z 0.01 530790 527777 524768 514754 501750 495750 488750 482751 474756 467762 461769 453781 449788 446796 446805 449816 450822 450829 450838 450846 447856 448862 449868 450879 450897 450903 452909 456914 460913 462911 464902 467883 470874 473868 477860 483854 490849 498844 506839 511833 516827 518818 521814 525811 528807 529801 529793 530790 0.01 523261 521255 519245 517238 512229 505216 500209 496204 492203 488201 482200 478200 475202 468205 463206 457199 458193 464190 469187 474182 480180 482183 485185 503190 510194 514199 518205 521209 525210 531208 533205 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481987 481980 484971 0.01 410786 408781 404776 389781 384781 382780 380775 381769 384763 386757 386751 384742 380737 376733 370732 359730 353733 346736 336745 332750 326755 319764 311775 305783 301787 297794 294804 276819 271829 268834 264839 258847 255853 256856 258860 266863 271859 273863 272867 271872 275879 278882 282884 292889 297892 303892 309891 314892 324896 330898 334895 339890 344885 351862 353857 357852 364842 367836 370831 379821 383815 388810 393807 398800 400795 404793 410786 0.01 412227 414223 415219 414214 408213 403210 399208 395204 391206 391210 396214 399216 404219 407222 408229 409230 412227 0.01 416076 416070 415068 415064 413060 410058 404054 400053 395057 392061 388063 384062 382066 382072 383076 387077 389080 392082 398086 402084 404083 411080 416076 0.25 508283 511275 513266 511251 510245 509237 504226 499217 496213 491210 486207 480207 470210 454214 446217 440218 437222 436229 434236 433241 433245 437250 443251 452250 461250 467251 473254 481259 488268 495277 498280 504284 508283 0.25 507174 503169 499163 492157 489156 485155 479156 475155 471154 465149 462153 463157 467161 470167 478170 485174 487175 492176 498174 507175 507174 0.25 461182 459179 456179 455181 456183 459183 461182 0.25 450101 450098 449097 447096 446097 444098 441100 439104 439108 441110 444111 446112 449109 449105 450102 450101 0.25 370759 371755 370752 366746 356744 352745 346747 340752 338755 332765 328774 324784 319792 317797 317802 315812 314816 314819 318821 324822 329823 335833 336840 338843 341842 344839 345834 344826 343819 343814 345809 347803 349798 355790 361780 366771 370760 370759 0.25 313823 311814 306812 298815 293818 288823 285827 283828 285831 285835 287840 290837 293835 298834 303834 308832 308831 307829 309828 312825 313823 0.50 503271 501266 496260 492256 489250 481239 478234 474232 471231 469226 471222 475217 482218 490222 493226 497233 501238 503238 504234 499222 494217 488214 464215 452217 448219 445220 443223 448228 446232 441237 440242 441245 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