AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 930 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2003 FRONT CONTINUES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...WHERE MOST OF THE ONGOING PCP IS OCCURRING. IR SATELLITE INDICATING BACK EDGE OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE MOVING EAST. SO WE MAY SEE A RESPITE OF THE ONGOING RAINS IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...MESO-ETA/RUC PROGS SURFACE WAVE IN GULF TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL GA OVERNITE WITH A GOOD 700 MB OMEGA FIELD MOVING THRU MUCH OF THE CWA. THIS WOULD HELP REGENERATE CONVECTION AGAIN. WILL KEEP CURRENT FLOOD WATCH/POPS GOING OVERNITE. MARINE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWING UP WITH WINDS AT THE BUOY 43 NM EAST OF ST AUGUSTINE SW AT 8 KNOTS AND WINDS AT GRAYS REEF SE AT 10 KNOTS. WITH FRONT SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH...EXPECT A WIND SHIFT INTO THE SW ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THE CURRENT EXERCISE CAUTION LOOKS GOOD. MAIN EMPHASIS WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFFSHORE. .JAX... FL...FLOOD WATCH FOR BAKER...COLUMBIA...DUVAL...HAMILTON...NASSAU... AND SUWANNEE COUNTIES TIL 6 AM SUNDAY. GA...FLOOD WATCH FOR CHARLTON COUNTY TIL 6 AM SUNDAY. PP/SC fl EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 900 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2003 FNTL BNDRY NOW OVER N FL CONTINUES TO PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FORCING FOR TRAINING CONVECTIVE ACTVTY. SFC WV DEVELOPING OVER THE NE GULF WILL LIFT NE AND SLOWLY DEVELOP AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST OF GA SUN MORNING. ETA SUITE/RUC KEEP BNDRY TO OUR N OVER NIGHT AND THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE BNDRY INTO CENTRAL FL AS LOW SPOOLS UP OVER THE SERN COAST. STILL...LOW-MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS NRN FL OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION MAY ONCE AGAIN INTENSIFY WITH ACTVTY PRIMARILY STAYING N OF FCST AREA. HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTAB REMAINS THRU CENTRAL FL WITH ADAS IMPLIED CAPE OF AOA 1000 J/KG. INSTAB COMBINED WITH INCREASING WND FIELD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS TO PROPAGATE S WILL MEAN THERE IS STILL SOME CHC OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE ACTVTY N OF ORLANDO AND WILL KEEP POPS IN PLACE. WILL UPDATE TO ADJUST WORDING AND REMOVE EVE REF. MARINE...WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN RELUCTANT TO VEER OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS APPEAR TO BE FINALLY DOING SO. STILL NEAR 20KTS AT 41010 SO WILL KEEP SCEC CONDITIONS FOR WELL OFFSHORE. CONVECTION MAY SPREAD BACK OVER NRN AREAS TOWARDS MORNING. .MLB...NONE. PUBLIC/MARINE...BLOTTMAN AVIATION/FIRE WX...WIMMER $$ fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 847 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2003 .PUBLIC...BUSY MORNING. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES EASTERLY FLOW AND LOW LEVEL WEDGING GOING ON. SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING ON ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. WILL GO WITH DRIZZLE...FOG...AND CHILLY TEMPS IN NORTH...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MIDDLE GA. UPDATE WILL LOWER TEMPS IN NORTH...PER RUC. .AVIATION...WILL LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO 200 TO 400 FEET AND 1 TO 2 MILES ACROSS FTY...ATL...AHN AREA...UNTIL BETWEEN 16 TO 18Z. AFTER THAT...THINGS WILL ONLY IMPROVE SLOWLY AS RAIN MAY MIX THINGS OUT A LITTLE. .ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. $$ NOEL ga AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 135 PM CST SAT MAR 01 2003 SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS...NUMEROUS FCST CHALLENGES THRU THE NEXT 7 DAYS. LONG TERM MODELS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THAN REV DAYS THOUGH. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN FOCUS ON SNOW AMOUNT/LOCATION TONIGHT AND POSSIBILITY OF MIXED PCPN...SKY COVER TOMORROW AND THE CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. LONGER TERM CONCERNS STEM AROUND TEMPS/TIMING OF EVENTS ACROSS THE AREA IN AN INCREASING ZONAL FLOW. TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TOWARD THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC ALREADY SHOWING PCPN OVER MO MOVING TO THE NE BETWEEN I-44 AND I-70. PCPN MOVG NE AT A GOOD CLIP. SAT PICS SHOWING THE WHOLE MIDWEST AREA SOCKED IN UNDER LOW CLOUDS...FOG AND SOME LIGHT DZ. UPPER AIR CHARTS STILL SHOWING VERY COLD AIR OVER CANADA. 12Z MESOETA AND LATEST RUC MODELS SIMILAR IN BRINGING IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT, MORE OR LESS RIGHT ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA. MM-5 AND OTHER MODELS INDICATE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AS DID SOME OF THE 01/00Z MODEL RUNS. THIS CREATES A DILEMMA ON WHERE TO PLACE THE BEST SNOW BAND. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PCPN WILL PROBABLY BE MIXED ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL PRESS TIME TO MAKE FINAL DECISION ON BEST SNOW LOCATION. PCPN TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE EARLIER THAN LAST NIGHTS 1-2+ INCHES THAT FELL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA. PLANNING ON MAKING NO MENTION OF PCPN TIMING CONSIDERING FROPA LATE ALSO. STILL LOOKING FOR FROPA AROUND 08Z OR SO IN THE NORTH AND TOWARD 11-12Z IN THE SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS WILL STAY PRETTY STEADY TONIGHT UNTIL FROPA...MAKING OVERNIGHT LOWS A LITTLE TRICKY. TIME HEIGHTS/PLAN VIEWS INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW WITH FLURRIES IN THE MORNING...BECOMING PC IN THE AFTERNOON...HAVE WORDED ZONES THAT WAY. TEMPS WONT GO MUCH OF ANYWHERE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW. COLD TOMORROW NIGHT UNDER MCLR SKIES. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON-MORE SO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. LOWERED POPS A TAD FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE DATABASE. BEST CHANCE POPS ON TUE AND RAISED POPS TO LIKELY. MAY BE A DECENT SNOW TUE...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH CLOSELY. I DROPPED THE POPS FOR WED MORNING OUT OF THE DATABASE. NEXT SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE AREA THURSDAY BUT MORE SO THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY. REMOVED POPS FOR THUR DAY AND WILL MAKE MENTION OF POPS THUR NIGHT AND FRI. WENT DRY ON SAT, BUT THAT ME BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE ALSO. TIMING OF SYSTEMS IN FAST ZONAL FLOW THRU THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUFF. MODERATING TEMPS WED-FRI, BUT STILL WENT A LITTLE BELOW THE MOS NUMBERS. ADJUSTED THURSDAYS HIGHS UPWARD TO BETTER MATCH LSX TEMPS. THANKS TO LSX FOR COORDINATION. FURTHER COORDINATION WELCOME. .ILX...NONE. $$ HALL il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1003 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2003 WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATE SHORTLY. WILL BE TAKING OUT ALL MORNING WORDING FOR PRECIPITATION AND FOG. BASED ON SATELLITE LOOKS LIKE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ALSO WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH ALREADY WITH A TAD HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. RUC LOOKS TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL... AND WILL UPDATE WITH THE LATEST GRIDS. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APROACHING MAXES IN THE NORTHEWEST HALF. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RUC...WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES 3 TO 5 DEGREES THERE. WILL LEAVE THE TEMPERATURES ALONE IN THE EXTREME SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES DUE TO THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER. .GLD...NONE. $$ BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 242 PM CST SAT MAR 01 2003 SHORT TERM CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS TONIGHT. IN THE LONGER TERM...WARM UP STILL BEING ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. POTENT MID TROP VORT MOVING INTO WEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE VORT...FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI...BACK INTO SW MISSOURI AND NE OKLAHOMA. THE PRECIPITATION WAS REPORTED TO BE SLEET AND SNOW IN MISSOURI...TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT RAIN IN NE OKLAHOMA. SHORT TERM MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE RUC...ETA AND AVN ALL SHOW MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA...AND LATEST RADAR LOOP SUPPORTS THIS TREND. FORCING AND MOISTURE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE OUR CHANCE POPS FOR EITHER RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW ACROSS S ILLINOIS AND SW INDIANA FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...POPS RATHER LOW...AND QPF SCANT FARTHER SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY AND SE MISSOURI. WILL GO WITH SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...BUT STILL ON THE CLOUDY AND COOL SIDE AS NW LOW LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS AND MAINTAINS SOME CAA. THIS WILL LEAD TO COLD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN SKIES ARE FORECAST TO FINALLY CLEAR OUT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE RULE MONDAY...WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING BY AFTERNOON. SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILDER. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF RAIN AS THE FRONT AND AREA OF MID LEVEL FORCING MOVES THROUGH. WENT MORE WITH GFS TIMING. QUIET WX IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE U.S. S/SW LOW LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A MUCH ANTICIPATED WARM UP... ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. PER THE ECMWF AND MRF...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS...WE WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. .PAH...NONE. $$ CN ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 1000 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2003 BAND OF -RA OR DZ TRANSLATING ACROSS SRN IND ATTM, ALIGNED WITH 500MB FLOW PTTN. POOL OF RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL STATIC STABILITY AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER WRN IL FOCUSING LIFT OVER SRN IND. SAID PCPN TO MOVE NEWD AND MORE OR LESS OUT OF LMK FA BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON. RECENT ACARS RAOBS OUT OF KSDF SHOW VERY STRONG INVERSION ~850MB. 12Z RUC DATA SUGGESTS THAT THIS INVERSION WILL HOLD THROUGH TODAY, THEREFORE WILL GO WITH OVC SKIES ALL ZONES IN THE 1ST PERIOD. .SDF...NONE. XXV ///PREV AFD BELOW/// SKIES CLOUDY ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE AREA. RADAR INDICATES AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA JUST NORTH OF FA. PATCHY FOG OVER THE AREA BUT VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN 1 MILE OR HIGHER. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN BUT DIFFER SOME IN HOW FAST THE COLD AIR WILL COME IN ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE GFS FOR TEMPS AND POPS AND A BLEND FOR TIMING OF RAIN/SNOW CHANGEOVER. MAIN FORECAST PROBLEMS...THIS MORNING...LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF ANY PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN WITH COLD FRONT STREAMING SOUTHEAST INTO FA SUNDAY. AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT SNOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF FA EARLY THIS MORNING IS DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS THE PRECIPITATION ELEMENTS MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SCRAPE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF FORECAST AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS DO NOT EXPECT ACCUMULATION. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY TODAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE WILL INTO 4OS TODAY AHEAD OF FRONT PUSHING IN TONIGHT. GFS AND ETA BOTH BRING PRECIPITATION INTO FA TONIGHT...ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT. MOST OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO BE RAIN. FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW BEFORE MORNING. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BECOME MIXED WITH FLURRIES AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY OR FALL SLOWLY INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FA DURING THE DAY. ACROSS THE SOUTH TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 30S. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OHIO VALLEY. AS CLOUDS DECREASE TOWARD MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCHOLZ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 924 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2003 .UPDATED...CLOUDS MOVING IN DOWNEAST HAVE ALREADY CAPPED LOW TEMPERATURES... WITH A COUPLE HOURS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING LEFT UP NORTH. WILL ADJUST LOWS TO REFLECT THIS...WITH THE MAJOR CHANGE RAISING THE LOWS DOWNEAST. LOOKS LIKE THE MAV HAD THE RIGHT IDEA FOR LOWS FOR TONIGHT. 00Z RUC INDICATES SNOW MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH NORTHERN MAINE BY 12Z...BUT WITH IT SO CLOSE WILL LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST ALONE. ON THE WATERS...SEAS PUSHING 5 FT...AND WINDS CLOSE TO SCA AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY THE RUC SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE SCA. .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING SUNDAY AND THEN MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY VERY WINDY AND BITTER COLD CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE THE LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A BLAST OF BITTER COLD AIR FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS PRETTY MUCH ALL IN LINE IN TRACKING THE DEVELOPING LOW NORTHEAST TO AROUND CAPE COD BY 00Z/MON NORTHEAST TO AROUND EASTPORT 06Z/MON AND THEN RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES EARLY MONDAY. MODELS INDICATING AN INCH TO INCH AND HALF OF QPF ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY SNOW WITH A MIX POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ACROSS SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY. WITH EXPECTED QPF WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONES 1>6-10-31 SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ACROSS INTERIOR AND COASTAL DOWNEAST PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW THEN BECOMING MIXED ON SUNDAY BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. ISSUED A FLOOD STATEMENT FOR DOWNEAST ZONES TO EMPHASIZE THE POSSIBILITY OF PONDING WATER DUE TO POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINS. THE STORM WILL DEPART INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY EARLY MONDAY. BITTER COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONG H85 COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE. IT ALSO WILL BE VERY WINDY AND WIND CHILL WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SKIES WILL START PARTLY CLOUDY ON TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW BY LATE IN THE DAY WITH SNOW LIKELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MR DOES HINT AT ANOTHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN ENSEMBLE FORECASTS WILL JUST GO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR NOW. COASTAL WATERS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE SUNDAY NIGHT. GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY IN THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ON MONDAY. .CAR...WINTER STORM WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ZONES 1>6-10-31 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT GALE WARNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY COASTAL WATERS. APFFEL me AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1012 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2003 ...FORECAST QUANDARIES THIS EVENING ARE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES BEHIND ARCTIC COLD FRONT PRODUCING DANGEROUS WIND CHILL READINGS... SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PASS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CWA...AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EDGING INTO WESTERN UPPER MI. THIS SHARP COLD FRONT IS MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY AND IS EXPECTED TO VACATE THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 23Z SURFACE TEMP AT KIWD WAS 37 DEGREES BUT HAD DROPPED TO 28 DEGREES BY 00Z. AVN 850MB TEMPS DROP FROM -7 DEGREES ACROSS CWA AT 00Z TO -28 DEGREES OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND ONLY ABOUT -18 DEGREES OVER EASTERN CWA BY 12Z. STRONG WINDS AT THE SURFACE BEHIND THIS FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...CREATING A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS CWA INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREA OF SUBSIDENCE INDICATED BY Q-VECTOR DIVERGENCE AND DOWNWARD OMEGA WILL HELP TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. RUC40 SHOWS NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND UP TO 30MPH OVER INLAND AREAS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNRISE AS GREATEST SURFACE PRESSURE RISES PASS THROUGH CWA. SHARP BACK EDGE OF MOISTURE FIELD ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH CWA BY DAYBREAK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GREATEST ETA 850MB OMEGA FIELDS MATCH WELL WITH CURRENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH UPPED AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES OVER KEWEENAW PENINSULA...HURON MOUNTAINS...AND EAST OF MARQUETTE. SHOULD ONLY BE A FEW FLURRIES FLOATING AROUND WEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS AFTER THE BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COMING TO AN END BY MID MORNING OVER THE EASTERN CWA. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH TIMING OF SNOW WEST TO EAST...AND A DIMINISHING TREND OVER WEST HALF OF CWA BY DAYBREAK. WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES EXPECT WIND CHILLS IN INCREASE OVERNIGHT...THEREFORE CONTINUING THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED DUE TO SPOTTER REPORTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND SURFACE OBS INDICATING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS SHOULD BE LOCALIZED OVER AREAS IN THE ADVISORY AS THEY ARE UNDER THE GREATEST SURFACE PRESSURE RISE. .MQT...GALE WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO OVERNIGHT MIZ001-003>005. ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT MIZ001>007-009>011-014-084-085. WIND CHILL ADVISORY SUNDAY MORNING MIZ001>005-009>011-084. WIND CHILL ADVISORY SUNDAY MIZ006-007-012>014-085. LAROSA mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1040 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2003 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR ACROSS NORTHWEST MN/SOUTHERN ND...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS SD/NE. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS SET UP AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AC DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI/CENTRAL LOWER MI...AS WELL AS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS MN/ NORTHWEST WI/FAR WESTERN UPPER AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. AREA OF FOG/ST ALSO CENTERED OVER LUCE/WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA/MACKINAC COUNTIES IN EASTERN UPPER. APX/GRB/DTX SOUNDINGS SHOW VARYING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ABOVE 750MB...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED THICKER CLOUD COVER ACROSS IA/IL/IN...WITH A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS CLOUD LAYER ACROSS MO/IA. CLOUDS WILL BE IMPINGING UPON THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH AS THE DAY WEARS ON. ALTHOUGH MAIN AREA OF CLOUD COVER TO THE SOUTH JUST SPREADING INTO NORTHERN IL/FAR SOUTHERN LOWER...CONTINUED MID LEVEL WITHIN THE MOIST LAYER DEPICTED ON AREA SOUNDINGS SHOULD ALLOW AC TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AS THE DAY WEARS ON PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND 12Z RUC/ETA MOISTURE FIELDS. ALSO EXPECT AC TO THE WEST TO ALSO SPREAD IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONGER QG FORCING AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SPREADS IN. LOOKS LIKE LOWER LAYERS WILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTION OF FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON MOST AREAS THOUGH WILL LEAVE IN AROUND SAGINAW BAY AREA. GOING TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD BASED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS...LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL GET ENOUGH SUN TO MIX CLOSE TO 850MB...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HANGING IN MOST OF THE MORNING. UPDATED ARBZFPAPX WILL BE OUT BY 1610Z. .APX...NONE. $$ JPB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 731 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2003 WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS NRN FL/SRN GA. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AND EJECTING UPPER SHORT WAVE HAS RESULTING IN OVER RUNNING TYPE PCPN ACROSS SE NC AND INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE SMALL AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS DRIFTING NE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. LATEST RUC IS TRENDING TOWARD A MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN OVERNIGHT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF QPF OVER THE BULK OF THE AREA. EXCEPTION IS IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS WHERE FORECAST LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEXES WOULD ARGUE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG THE COAST. INLAND SHOULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE...BUT NOT A GENERAL RAIN. WILL LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY AND PULL MENTION OF THUNDER INLAND...BUT MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG THE COAST. CWF: SO FAR ONLY FPSN7 IS IN WARM SECTOR WITH GUSTY SE WINDS AND LARGE SEAS. LATEST RUC40 AND ETA12 SHOW WEAK LOW PASSING N JUST INLAND FROM CST OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD PUT MOST OF CSTL WTRS AND PAMLICO SOUND IN WARM SECTOR/SCA WINDS FOR A PERIOD AS CRNT FCST INDICATES. FOR NRN WTRS SRLY FLOW MAY BE WEAKER HOWEVER GIVEN 4 TO 5 FOOT NE SWELL ALREADY PRESENT WONT TAKE MUCH OF A WIND WAVE TO REACH SCA LVLS SO WILL KEEP CURRENT HEADLINES. .MHX...SCA COASTAL WATERS AND PAMLICO SOUND. MLF/RF nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 936 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2003 WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE PAST HOUR HAVE SEEN SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN STEADY IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. 00Z ETA STILL SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TO CROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WARM FRONT NOW OVER SRN GA WITH SURFACE WAVE NEAR SAV. CATEGORICAL POPS STILL LOOK OKAY FOR THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE RISING. SCATTERED TSTMS STILL A POSSIBILITY. 00Z RUC HAS SHOWWALTER INDEX DOWN TO MINUS 2 BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. OVERALL, FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. MAY UPDATE TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY MOST OF THE NIGHT. FCSTID = 10 CAE 49 66 40 56 / 90 50 10 10 AGS 50 68 38 58 / 90 40 10 10 SSC 48 65 40 56 / 90 50 10 10 OGB 51 66 41 57 / 90 50 10 10 .CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. LM THE FOLLOWING IS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION. ************************************************************** AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC 244 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2003 PROGS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SHORTWAVE FROM SW US EASTWARD AND SHEARING IT OFF. TIMING IS ANOTHER STORY. IN THE MEANTIME ETA A LITTLE SLOWER TO END PCPN AND WILL FOLLOW FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S. TEMPERATUERS SHOULD REMAIN STEADY FOR A FEW HOURS THEN SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF THUNDER LOWLEVEL SHEAR AND AIRMASS CONTINUING UNSTABLE. COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED THE SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. WILL CUT MOS TEMPERATURES SOME RAIN EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE MORNING AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOW TO GO. OTHERWISE MOS TEMPERATUERS LOOK OK. EXTENDED...SOUTHERN JET CONTINUES FROM TEXAS EASTWARD WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES INDICATING A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY...BUT FEEL BEST CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH UPPER FLOW GOING FROM NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY. MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE. 12PLANET LOST SO LITTLE IF ANY COORD. CAE 51 66 40 56 / 90 50 10 10 AGS 51 68 38 58 / 90 40 10 10 SSC 51 65 40 56 / 90 50 10 10 OGB 51 66 41 57 / 90 50 10 10 .CAE... GA...NONE. SC...NONE. CDL sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1019 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2003 .UPDATE... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES AND LATEST TRENDS IN REGIONAL 88D RETURNS AND SAT PICS COMBINED WITH LATEST RUN OF THE RUC MODEL AND MORNING SOUNDINGS SUPPORTS RAISING TEMPS CWA WIDE BY 2 TO 6 DEGREES DUE TO MECHANICAL AND DIRECT INSOLATION INDUCED MIXING OF BL THIS MORNING. SURFACE TEMPS NORTH OF CWA BEHIND COLD FRONT ALREADY ON THE DECREASE AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING CWA AND SUSPECT IT WILL BE ALL THE WAY THROUGH CWA BY 18Z. TWEAKED TEMPS/DWPTS/WINDS/SKY/RH/WCHLLS AND SFC WX THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM TO BE LOOKED OVER SHORTLY. CURRENT 20 TO 30 MPH WINDY WORDING LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD FOR NOW. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS OF SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN/RETREATS AND THEN BACK IN AGAIN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW PRES TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS MRNG MOVING EAST WILL BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT JUST ACROSS THE ND/CANADIAN BORDER AT 09Z. HIGHS FOR TODAY ACROSS THE ABR CWA SHOULD OCCUR BY NOON BEFORE THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES IN. TEMPS WILL FALL ACROSS THE N PART OF CWA THIS AFTN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NORTH WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH. SFC PRES RISES OF 3 TO 5 MB WERE IN S CANADA EARLY THIS MRNG. ALSO...LOW CLOUDS WILL OVERTAKE THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. MDL TSCTS SHOW WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL LIFT WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH AND MDL QPF IS VERY LIGHT. THUS...BELIEVE ONLY FLURRIES WILL OCCUR WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTN AND EARLY THIS EVENING. MDLS SHOW GOOD DRYING TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN. THEREFORE...THE FLURRIES AND LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE OUT THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. WIND CHILLS COULD BE A PROBLEM ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AS TEMPS FALL TO BELOW ZERO AND WINDS REMAIN ABOVE 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR SO. WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW AND WILL MENTION IN THE HWO. LOWS WILL BE TUFF TONIGHT DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE WINDS DROP OFF AND HOW LOW THE DWPTS GO BUT...WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOWCOVER...THE LOWS SHOULD NOT BE AS COLD AS THE ETA AND MAV GUID ARE GOING AND NOT AS WARM AS THE FWC. GUID WAS TOO COOL WITH HIGHS AND LOWS WITH THE ARCTIC AIR LAST WEEK AND BELIEVE THIS AGAIN WILL BE THE CASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THUS...TRENDED HIGHER ON LOWS AND HIGHS THAN THE ETA AND MAV OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUNDAY WILL HAVE SUNNY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER SFC LOW PRES BEGINS TO APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE NW. AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP...S TO SW WINDS WILL PICK UP BY SUN AFTN. WITH SS...WAA AND GOOD SFC HEATING...TEMPS WILL RISE QUITE A BIT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY FROM THE COLD MRNG LOWS BELOW ZERO. THE ETA...GFS...CANADIAN AND UKMET SHOW A SFC LOW PRES DROPPING ACROSS ND...NE SD AND INTO C MN SUN NIGHT AND MON. WAA CLOUDS SHOULD SPREAD SE ACROSS THE ABR CWA SUN AFTN AND EVENING. WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK AND MDL QPF...NC SD INTO WC MN SHOULD HAVE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW WITH C SD REMAINING DRY. WITH CLOUD COVER AND MUCH OF THE ABR CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR...TEMPS SHOULD NOT FALL OFF MUCH SUN NIGHT AND MAY EVEN RISE. KEPT A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN NE SD AND WC MN MON MRNG WITH SFC LOW MOVING THROUGH. MONDAYS HIGHS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MRNG WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC PUSH OCCURRING MON AFTN AND NIGHT. .ABR...NONE DORN/MOHR sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 855 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2003 THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. ********************************************************************* EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE) 855 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2003 CLOUDS HAVE FILLED BACKED IN QUICKLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AFTER A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. SURFACE TROUGH LIES ACROSS FORECAST AREA WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR THAN SURROUNDINGS. RUC SHOWS EXITING SHORTWAVE FROM THE MOUNTAINS EAST INTO NORTH CAROLINA. NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NOW WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE LATE TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WITH HIGHEST CHANCE NORTHEAST SECTIONS. SINCE ALREADY IN FORECAST NO UPDATE PLANNED. .MRX... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. TD ********************************************************************* AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION 245 PM EST SAT MAR 1 2003 SATELLITE SHOWING CLOUDS BREAKING ACROSS THE CWA. SHOULD FILL BACK IN TONIGHT. WEAK INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST MAY BRING SOME PRECIP TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...RADAR SHOWING A FEW ECHOES IN NORTHEAST AL/NORTHWEST GA. BETTER CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MOISTURE FAIRLY SHALLOW...NOT EXPECTED A LOT OF PRECIP...SO WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GRADIENT INCREASES SUNDAY...SHOULD HAVE A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES/THICKNESSES INDICATE SNOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. TOO DRY FOR SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL KEEP CHANCE FOR FLURRIES MONDAY MORNING...THEN DRY AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. CHA 46 56 32 47 / 30 20 20 10 TYS 45 52 29 43 / 40 30 20 10 TRI 43 50 27 39 / 50 40 20 10 OQT 45 52 29 43 / 40 30 20 10 GH ********************************************************************* LATE MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE) 1000 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2003 OBSERVING SITES ACROSS THE CWA INDICATING VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED ABOVE 1/4 MILE...WILL UPDATE ZONES TO TAKE OUT DENSE FOG...AND CLEAN UP AFTERNOON WORDING. SATELLITE SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE NORTH...BUT MODELS SHOWING A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY EVERYWHERE FOR TODAY. WEAK DISTURBANCE TRACKS TO THE SOUTHEAST...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS STILL REASONABLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. GH ********************************************************************* EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION 315 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2003 GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT FOR WHICH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS JUSTIFIED. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID-MORNING. WEAK RIDGING AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY A ZONAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA IN THE FIRST PERIOD. WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL THROW SOME MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...BUT THIS MOISTURE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MAKING IT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE VALLEY PER MODEL PROJECTIONS. AM INCLINED TO CUT BACK POPS IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN-MOST ZONES WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE IS STILL APPROPRIATE. AT ANY RATE...THIS APPEARS TO BE A VERY MINOR EVENT. SHORTWAVE BEGINS AFFECTING OUR FORECAST AREA IN EARNEST BY LATE IN THE SECOND PERIOD. THIS HOWEVER ALSO APPEARS TO BE NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT AS MOISTURE IS CONFINED GENERALLY TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING USHERING IN ANOTHER SHOT OF WELL-BELOW CLIMATOLOGY TEMPS. MESOETA DEPICTS AN UPSLOPE EVENT SUCCEEDING THIS FEATURE INTO THE FIFTH PERIOD. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME EROSION OF THE OVERCAST IN THE VALLEY AT THAT TIME HOWEVER AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN...GENERALLY WENT WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TEMPS. PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOLLOW: CHA 58 45 56 32 / 10 30 20 20 TYS 55 44 52 30 / 10 40 30 20 TRI 54 42 50 27 / 10 50 40 20 OQT 56 44 52 29 / 10 40 30 20 LCM tn COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 840 PM CST SAT MAR 01 2003 WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS-IS FOR THE TIME BEING AS LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST REMAIN 1/2 MILE OR LESS. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWFA...BUT RUC AND NEW GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF CAUSING HIGHER DEWPOINTS GOING OVER COOLER WATERS AND CREATING SEA FOG WHICH IS MOVING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SITUATION THOUGH...AND WILL ALSO KEEP OTHER COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL NOT WASTE TIME IN ISSUING UPDATE IF VSBYS WORSEN ELSEWHERE OR IF I AM CONVINCED WINDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWFA WILL REMAIN SO TO INHIBIT ADVECTION FOG. TEMPS MAY NEED A LITTLE NUDGE UPWARDS BUT NOT MUCH. WILL MAKE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WIND DIRECTION AS WELL. NO CHANGES TO THE LATTER PERIODS. FOR THE MARINE...WILL ADJUST WINDS AND CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SEA FOG WHERE ADVERTISED. .CRP...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TXZ242>247 TONIGHT. 86/GW tx WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 738 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2003 THE SHORT TERM MODELS DISAGREE ON EXTENSIVENESS OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. BOTH GENERALLY AGREE ON THE BIG COUNTRY...HEARTLAND AND THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. HOWEVER THE 00Z RUC WANTS TO EXTEND THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. GIVEN THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COVERAGE THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS...THE MOIST GENERALLY EAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...AND FOG ALREADY STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL MENTION SOME TYPE OF FOG ACROSS ALL ZONES. WINDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THE COLD AIR DOES NOT PUSH SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY TIL NEAR 12Z. THIS WILL KEEP THE GOING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN LINE FOR THE BIG COUNTRY. HOWEVER WILL BUMP UP THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES LOWS CLOSER TO THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS (IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S). 24 BELOW IS THE AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION. -------------------------------------------------------------------- LOW CLOUDS WERE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES...WERE BRINGING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NW HILL COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ONLY A WEAK PUSH WAS INDICATED TONIGHT...BUT COLDER AIR WITH STRONGER PUSH ON SUNDAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OVERRUNNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER MONDAY...SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN ON MONDAY. SOME DIFFERENCE NOTED IN THE GFS AND ETA MODELS MONDAY...WITH THE AVN FASTER...DRIER AND LESS 700 MB LIFT. WENT TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY WETTER ETA ON MONDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES. MODELS TEND TO CLEAR OUT MOISTURE TOO FAST. MODERATELY WARM TEMPERATURES IN UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S INDICATED IN GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS HOWEVER DOES INDICATE A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO MIDDLE AND SOUTHEAST U.S. TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS COLD AIR REMAINS EAST OF THE REGION... HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PATCH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH MODERATE FORECAST. CCF PRELIMS... ABI 039/045/032/059 0-23- SJT 041/051/036/061 0-33- JCT 042/054/037/061 0-331 .SJT...NONE. $$ 04 tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD AVIATION DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 535 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2003 ...AVIATION DISCUSSION... CURRENT TAFS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE REQUIRED FOR THIS ISSUANCE. MAJOR CONCERNS FOR THE UPCOMING 24 HOUR PERIOD WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE FROM THE MESOETA AND RUC40 SUGGEST THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. CEILINGS AND OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY AFTER 02/06Z...BUT WILL NOT MENTION IN TAF AT THIS POINT. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 65/DD ...PREVIOUS PUBLIC DISCUSSION... EXPECT CONFLUENT...W/SWLY/FAST ZONAL TYPE FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH FAIRLY PERSISTENT CLOUD CVR THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY. A BRIEF PD OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN SW HALF WHERE DEPTH OF LOW LVL MSTR/REMNANTS OF OLD ARCTIC DOME IS THE SHALLOWEST. RETROGRADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IN POLAR STREAM WHICH WILL PUSH LOW PRESSURE OVER W TX DOWN INTO NRN MEXICO AND ALLOW A MINOR BACK DOOR FRONT LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING...BEFORE REINFORCING POLAR COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY SUNDAY. WILL INSERT LOW END POPS LATE TODAY NORTH... THEN BETTER SHOT SOUTH SUN. ACTION PICK UPS OVER THE REGION MON AFTN PER CANADIAN/EXTENDED ETA. SUB TROPICAL JET EASES NWD AT THIS TIME WITH DESERT SW SHORTWAVE TROUGH PULLING OUT OVER TX/OK. PWATS NEAR 1 INCH OVER CENTRAL TX BY THIS TIME. FOR NOW WILL INSERT LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN...SLGHT CHANCE OF ELEVATED THUNDER...AS MID LVL LAPSE RATES INCREASE OVERHEAD IN LIEU OF 850 WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER LOW LVL COOL DOME. MODELS VARY GREATLY ON SCENERIO...THUS THE LOW POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMO AVERAGES FOR EARLY MARCH THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. SWLY FLOW/WAA PATTERN RESUMES BEHIND DEPARTING POLAR HIGH TUESDAY...WITH A BREEZY/WARMER DAY EXPECTED WITH FINALLY SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE AS WELL. .EXTENDED...SW U.S SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES RETROGRADING SWWD OVER THE ERN PACIFIC/BAJA CA REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SECOND COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY...BEFORE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE NRN PLAINS OCCURS WITH POLAR HIGH SHUNTING COOLER AIR BACK EAST WITH ANOTHER SLOW WARM UP THURS/FRI AS WAA/SWLY LOW LVL FLOW RESUMES. NOT GOING QUITE AS WARM AS GFS AS IT NEVER REALLY BRINGS THE POLAR AIR INTO N TX. I FIND THIS HARD TO SWALLOW PER SOURCE REGION OF AIRMASS AND KNOWING GFS'S POOR HANDLING OF LOW LVL POLAR BEYOND DAY 4. EXPECT MORE OF GRADUAL WARM UP AND AT LEAST SOME COOL DOWN WHICH CANADIAN/ECMWF SOLUTIONS SHOW...DESPITE ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. IT'S STILL WINTER. FCSTID = 05/ DFW 55 41 48 33 / 0 0 20 20 ACT 59 44 50 34 / 0 20 30 30 PRX 51 40 47 32 / 20 0 20 10 DTO 53 36 45 29 / 20 0 20 10 TKI 53 36 45 29 / 20 0 20 10 DAL 55 41 48 33 / 0 0 20 20 TRL 55 45 50 35 / 0 10 20 20 CRS 55 45 50 35 / 0 10 20 20 TPL 60 46 52 36 / 0 20 30 30 .FWD... TX...NONE. tx UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT 1140 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2003 .SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WINTER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND REMAIN FOR MONDAY. .DISCUSSION...MADE QUITE A FEW CHANGES TO LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE. COMPLICATED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL MESOSCALE FEATURES COMPLICATING SNOWFALL FORECAST. SNOW PICKED UP JUST BEFORE SUNRISE ALONG THE WASATCH FRONT PRIMARILY BETWEEN THE SALT LAKE AREA AND OGDEN AREAS. VERY OBVIOUS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE RADAR LOOP MOVING SOUTH OVER THE LAKE. HEAVY SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE FARMINGTON AND EAST LAYTON AREAS...ALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION. 06Z MM5-ETA ACTUALLY PEGGED THIS CIRCULATION QUITE NICELY...ALSO SHOWING THE CONVERGENCE WEAKENING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT ON CUE...SNOW HAS DECREASED IN THE NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT...BUT STILL GOING ALONG I-80 AND SOUTH FROM THE GRANTSVILLE AREA TO THE EAST SALT LAKE AREA INTO COTTONWOOD HEIGHTS. THIS ISN'T SHOWING SIGNS OF LETTING UP...WHILE POINTS NORTH HAVE ALREADY DIMINISHED. FEEL HEAVY SNOW IS OVER FOR MOST AREAS...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ADVISORY AMOUNTS FOR STORM TOTALS...MAYBE EVEN HIGH END ADVISORY FOR THE AREAS UNDER CURRENT BAND ACROSS SLC AREA. LOW LEVEL VORT CENTER ON THE LATEST RUC OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO AND IN THE IR LOOP IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY...BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS A POSSIBLE SNOW ENHANCER IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NOT DOING AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80 GIVEN POOR OROGRAPHICS. 700 MB FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY...FURTHER DECREASING CHANCES OF HEAVIER SNOW THERE. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTH...700 MB LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY GETTING REPORTS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM DELTA TO AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SGU AREA. WITH NEWEST MODELS TAKING 700 MB LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH...AGAIN SHOWING UP NICELY ON THE RUC ANALYSES AND FORECASTS...AND MATCHING UP WELL WITH LATEST IR ENHANCEMENTS AND RADAR RETURNS...AND COMBINED WITH FORECAST INSTABILITY...FEEL SOUTHWEST UTAH WILL SEE WARNING LEVEL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY UNDER A FOLDING OVER RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. SO ALSO ADDED WARNINGS TO THE SOUTH AND AN ADVISORY TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. SLC 720 CDC 830 JACKSON .SLC...SNOW ADVISORIES AND HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS THROUGH THIS EVENING WASATCH FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS. SEE SLCWSWSLC FOR DETAILS. $$ ut AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 220 PM CST SAT MAR 1 2003 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE...SNOW CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. ANALYSIS AT 19Z SHOWING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. AREA OF SNOW OCCURRING IN A BAND RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING IS. SUBSIDENCE NOT TOO FAR BEHIND THE SNOW...CAUSING CLOUDS TO ERODE QUICKLY. CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY HAVE BEEN MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH. IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEM REMAINS A CLEAR SLOT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT CONTINUE TO PUSH TEMPERATURES UP. ETA/GFS/RUC CONTINUE GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW FORCING IN ALL LAYERS AND ARE TIMELY WITH IT. BEST FORCING REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BUT BASED ON CURRENT REALITY...THINK THERE REMAINS A LIKELIHOOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SO TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE SNOW CHANCES WITH INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST FORCING RESIDES. ANOTHER PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT IS EXACTLY HOW COLD IT WILL GET AND WITH HOW MUCH WIND. 850 MB WIND FORECAST SHOWS 25 TO 30 KNOTS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. BY 12Z...THESE WINDS SHOULD BE RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...1000-850 MB LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY 2-3 C/KM. THIS LACK OF INSTABILITY DOES NOT FAVOR THE MIXING DOWN OF MOMENTUM. THIS MAY BE UNDERDONE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT...6-8 MB/HR SURFACE PRESSURE RISES...AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SUGGEST THIS. WITH THAT SAID...THE COLDER TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE IN. AS A RESULT...BEST ESTIMATION FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY RESIDE FROM 6-10 AM SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE WIND SWEPT AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES IS WISCONSIN. WITH THE TEMPERATURES BEING WARMER...IT SEEMS TO BE BORDERLINE. AM NOT CONFIDENT IN ADVISORY WIND CHILLS AT THIS TIME SO WILL HOLD OFF AND ASK THE EVENING AND MIDNIGHT SHIFTS TO REASSESS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ASSESSMENT OF THE 285K ISENTROPIC SURFACE REALLY SHOWS THE STRENGTH OF THIS DISTURBANCE. IN EXCESS OF 8 UBARS/S OF NET ADIABATIC ASCENT IS FORECAST BY THE ETA. THE GFS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS. TIMING REMAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS VERY GOOD. LOOKS LIKE SNOW WILL BE FORMED BY DENDRITIC PROCESSES...SO SNOW WATER RATIOS SHOULD BE HIGH. THIS COULD LEAVE A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH...AND IN FACT...TRENDS TOWARD WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FORECASTING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD /7 DAYS/. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THOUGH THE REGION DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME PERIOD. ALSO...THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER...PUSHING THE 850 MB ZERO DEGREE CELSIUS LINE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SUGGESTS SOME RAIN CHANCES. WILL NOT INTRODUCE THIS AT THIS TIME. BUT IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...WILL INTRODUCE IN SUNDAYS AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE. WHAT I DID DO DURING THE TIME IS WARM TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE FLATTENING OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. MPX/DMX/DVN/MKX/GRB/DLH...ISC GRIDS OUT. CANNOT LOG INTO COORDINATION CHAT SOFTWARE DUE TO SLO PROBLEM. .LSE...NONE. KRC $$ wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 215 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2003 COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA WITH THE GREATEST PRESSURE RISES OVER THE EASTERN CWA...WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE. EXPECT ONLY A GLANCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TODAY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST...ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. BOTH GFS AND ETA APPEAR TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE AND UPPER FEATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIODS...ALTHROUGH GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH SHIFTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST. PREFER THE ETA HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE AND HAVE LEANED TOWARDS RUC/ETA IN THE FIRST PERIOD FOR WINDS. SNOWPACK IN THE SOUTH HAD LITTLE INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY...WITH ETA 850 TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S EAST TO THE UPPER 30S WEST WHICH IS A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES WARMER THAN THE LATEST MAV GUIDANCE. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER 20S WHICH IS SIMILAR TO MAV/MET/FWC. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR MONDAY WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AND PLENTY OF INSOLATION ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ETA EXTENSION MAY BE SLIGHTLY FASTER COMPARED TO THE GFS...WHILE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BOTH VERY SIMILAR. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN...ALTHOUGH SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN MAV WITH SOME HEATING EXPECTED PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...NO CHANGES. MCGUIRE .GLD... CO...NONE. KS...NONE. NE...NONE. $$ ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 455 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2003 MAIN FCST CONCERNS SHIFT FROM WIND CHILLS AND LIGHT LES TODAY INTO THIS EVENING TO SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS MON INTO MON NIGHT. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED NRN STREAM MID/UPR LVL FLOW DOMINATING THE WRN LAKES WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND HUDSON BAY VORTEX. STRONG SHRTWV WAS LOCATED OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR WHICH HAS HELPED PUSH SFC ARCTIC FRONT SE INTO NRN LWR MI TOWARD SRN WI. KMQT 88D INDICATED THAT THE BAND OF SN ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT HAD MOVED INTO SE UPR MI WITH WEAK WDLY SPACED LES BANDS IN ITS WAKE. IR LOOP WHICH SHOWED MID CLOUDS CLEARING OVER THE WRN LAKE...ALSO SUGGESTS LES BANDS MUCH WEAKER AND MORE WIDELY SPACED THAN WOULD BE TYPICAL WHEN MORE OPEN WATER IS PRESENT. RADAR TREND IS CONSISTENT WITH STRONG DRYING TREND DEPICTED BY ETA BUFR SNDGS WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM STRONG CAA/ISENTROPIC DESCENT. ALTHOUGH BEST ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT HAS SHIFTED S OF UPR MI WITH PRES RISE MAX OVER CNTRL UPR MI...TIGHT GRADIENT AND DECREASING LOW LVL STABILITY HAS KEPT WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. TEMPS DOWN TO ZERO TO -5 F OVER THE NW HLF HAVE PUSHED WIND CHILLS INTO THE -17 TO -30 RANGE. TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MDLS WERE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. SO...HAVE GENERALLY RELIED ON ETA FOR DETAILS WILL LOW LVL WINDS...BUT USED ETA/LAMP/GFS GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPS. EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AS SFC RDG BUILDS IN FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...WITH TEMPS STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING FROM CURRENT READINGS...EXPECT WIND CHILL CRITERIA OF -25 TO BE MET OVER ALL BUT FAR S PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 0 F. SO...WL CONTINUE WIND CHILL ADVY THROUGH THE MORNING WEST AND THROUGH THE DAY FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. EVEN WITH STRONG OVER LAKE INSTABILITY WITH H8 TEMPS DOWN TO -29C...SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER AND VERY COLD/DRY ARCTIC AIR (HINDERING SNOWFLAKE GROWTH) WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT LES. ONLY SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MENTIONED WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH. WHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW THIS MORNING...WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FALLING SNOW VSBYS HAVE IMPROVED ENOUGH TO DROP WINTER WX ADVY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WIND CHILLS WILL BE LESS SEVERE THIS EVENING AS WINDS QUICKLY DROP BLO 10 MPH...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET INTO THE -15 TO -25 RANGE INLAND. LATE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WAA OVER THE WEST AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF AS MUCH. MON INTO MON NIGHT...MDLS DISPLAY DIFFERENCES WITH TRACK OF SFC LOW TOWARD THE WRN LAKES WITH THE GFS FARTHEST SOUTH THE ETA/UKMET TO THE NORTH AND THE CANADIAN IN BTWN WITH THE LOW NEAR KLSE-KEAU BY 00Z/TUE. REGARDLESS OF LOW TRACK...EXPECT PERIOD OF DECENT 280-285K ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MODERATE TO STRONG QVECTOR CONVERGENCE WITH SUPPORTING SHRTWV TO BRING LIKELIHOOD OF -SN TO UPR MI. MDL CONSENSUS QPF OF 0.05 TO 0.15 INCH WITH SNOW/WATER OF 20/1-25/1 SUGGESTS SNOW AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 1-3 INCHES. WITH INITIAL DRY AIRMASS AND ONLY 1 G/KG AVBL (280K)...GENERAL 1-2 INCH AMOUNT IS EXPECTED. ETA LOW LVL WINDS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT OFF OF LK MI FOCUSING ON THE GARDEN PENINSULA. ENOUGH ICE FREE FETCH IS AVBL ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON AND LK-H8 DELTA/T APPROACHING 19C TO SIGNIFICANTLY BOOST SNOWFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH LOW TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LVL WINDS...HAVE NOT ISSUED WATCH BUT BOOSTED LCL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE 2-5 INCH RANGE. .MQT...GALE WARNING ERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WIND CHILL ADVISORY THIS MORNING MIZ001>003-009-084. WIND CHILL ADVY TODAY MIZ004>007-010-011-013-014-085. JLB mi COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1150 PM CST SAT MAR 01 2003 UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE ADVISORY ALL SECTIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. -------------------------------------------------------------------- WILL KEEP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS-IS FOR THE TIME BEING AS LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST REMAIN 1/2 MILE OR LESS. CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWFA...BUT RUC AND NEW GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE GULF CAUSING HIGHER DEWPOINTS GOING OVER COOLER WATERS AND CREATING SEA FOG WHICH IS MOVING INLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SITUATION THOUGH...AND WILL ALSO KEEP OTHER COUNTIES OUT OF THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WILL NOT WASTE TIME IN ISSUING UPDATE IF VSBYS WORSEN ELSEWHERE OR IF I AM CONVINCED WINDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWFA WILL REMAIN SO TO INHIBIT ADVECTION FOG. TEMPS MAY NEED A LITTLE NUDGE UPWARDS BUT NOT MUCH. WILL MAKE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WIND DIRECTION AS WELL. NO CHANGES TO THE LATTER PERIODS. FOR THE MARINE...WILL ADJUST WINDS AND CONTINUE THE MENTION OF SEA FOG WHERE ADVERTISED. .CRP...DENSE FOG ADVISORY TXZ242>247 TONIGHT. 86/GW tx SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1100 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2003 ARCTIC BOUNDARY MAKING NICE PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA. HIRES 8-BIT 88D REFLECTIVITY DEPICTS THIS BOUNDARY NICELY AND WILL BE CROSSING OVER THE OFFICE SHORTLY. TEMPERATURES DROP A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES WITH THE IMMEDIATE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AS WINDS PICK UP WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST. LATEST VISIBLE SHOWS PLENTY OF SKC ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH LAKE CLOUDS NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS INTO THE NORTHERN CWA. RUC SOUNDINGS CONTINUE WITH A SHARP DECLINE IN INVERSION HEIGHTS AND NOT TO MENTION THE DRY AIR! LAPS AND MSAS STREAMLINES BECOME MORE NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH ALSO POINTS TOWARD SOME DOWNSLOPE FURTHER REDUCING CLOUDS. SO A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT WITH METARS OBSERVING VIS DROPPING TO NEAR 1 MILE THEN A QUICK RECOVERY. ---PREVIOUS AFD--- AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS OVER THE LAKES REGION TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO RECORD TERRITORY. THE LACK OF A DEEP SNOW PACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP THE RADIATIONAL FORCING IN CHECK, HOWEVER THE CHARACTER OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD STILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP BELOW -10F NORTH OF A HOWELL TO PORT HURON LINE, WITH VALUES IN THE -5 TO -10F OUTSIDE OF THE URBANIZED AREAS OF DETROIT, WHERE TEMPS WILL SLIP TO AROUND ZERO IF NOT A TICK BELOW. EXPECT THAT WARM ADVECTION CLOUD COVER WILL STAY WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT WILL QUICKLY MAKE INROADS MONDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES. NCEP SUITE MEMBERS SELF-CONSISTENT WITH THE THEIR DEPICTION OF THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THE SUBSEQUENT SYSTEM TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY, THE MEMBERS DO NOT AGREE WITH ONE ANOTHER. THE ETA IS FARTHER NORTH AND SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE FIRST WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES REGION THAN THE GFS. ADDITIONALLY, IT IS FARTHER SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER WITH THE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OF THE SECOND SYSTEM. THE NET RESULT IS THAT THE ETA TAKES THE SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND GFS MOVES THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THERE STILL REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SECOND WAVE AS THE CMC GLOBAL IS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AND THE LOCALLY RUN ETA-XX TRACKS THE LOW ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY, SO WILL ADVERTISE INCREASING CLOUDS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW LATE. TEMPS WILL RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES IN EARNEST. THE BEST SHOT FOR SNOW WILL BE DURING THE EVENING AS THE DEEPEST THETA-E ADVECTION (850-600MB LAYER) SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION. UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS BRIEF SHOT OF LIFT (ONLY MODEST OMEGA VALUES ~5UB/S FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH THE BEST LIFT LOCATED AT TEMPS LOWER THAN -20C- NOT OPTIMIZING SNOW GROWTH MICROPHYSICS). SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE RESULTANT TRACK, ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH WOULD RECEIVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IF THE ETA/S NORTHERN SOLUTION IS CORRECT. AS STATED ABOVE, THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IS INTRIGUING. AT THIS POINT, WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AMONG THE SOLUTIONS AND STICK WITH THE MENTION OF SNOW LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS COULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH THE RIGHT TRACK, BUT THIS IS CERTAINLY EARLY IN THE GAME WITH THIS SYSTEM. NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. .DTX...NONE. $$ BGM MANN EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX (ALL LOWER CASE) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1042 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2003 WILL UPDATE ZFP TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING. SFC LOW NEAR KORF AT 15Z WITH COLD FRONT BISECTING MHX CWA...PROGGED TO MOVE OFF COAST EARLY THIS AFTN. LAST OF SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG COAST AND MAJORITY OF LATEST DATA SUPPORT DRY FCST FOR THIS AFTN. STLT INDICATES BACK EDGE OF MID/UPR LVL CLOUDS OVER CNTRL NC WHICH SHOULD ALSO MOVE OFF COAST EARLY AFTN. STILL WILL HAVE LOW LVL MSTR TO DEAL WITH BUT W-NW SFC WINDS AND SOME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW IT TO LIFT INTO BKN CU/SCU DECK...THUS PLAN ON A BECOMING PT SUNNY FCST. TEMPS TRICKY..ESPECIALLY COASTAL PLAINS...BUT SOME SUN WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO 60S EVEN THERE. MARINE: WW3 SIG WAVE HGHT DATA OVERDONE A BIT AS GFS WIND SPEEDS APPEAR EXAGGERATED. OBSERVED MSL CONTOURS LOOSER THAN PACKED GFS GIVEN PRESENCE OF SECONDARY SFC LOW ALG THE WRN NC/VA BRDR. KEEPING IN MIND HOWEVER THAT THE SFC LOW WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATE OFF THE DELMARVA SHORE...WILL MAINTAIN SCA FLAGS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS GET UGLY WHEN WNW TRAJ STARTS TEARING INTO RESIDUAL SE PRIMARY WAVE DIRECTION. RUC40 AND MESOETA SEEM AGREEABLE ON HOLDING OFF ON BEST WINDS UNTIL LATE TNGT INTO ERLY MONDAY AS CAA MAXIMIXES. STILL...GIVEN DEEPENING OF LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL LIKELY INSERT CAUTIONARY HEADLINE FOR INCREASING W-WNW FLOW LATE THIS AFTN. .MHX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COASTL WATERS FOR SEAS. JBM/COLBY nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 915 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2003 16Z SURFACE MAP HAD LEE TROUGH/WARM FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL MT TO NORTHEAST CO. PRESSURE FALLS DECENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SO EXPECT IT TO MOVE EAST TODAY. 12Z RUC AGREES WITH ROBUST WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850MB. UPDATE WILL BE TO RAISE TEMPERATURES IN FAR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY AND TO PUSH WINDS UP A NOTCH DUE TO EXPECTED PRESSURE FALLS. CLOUD COVER COULD KNOCK PEAK OFF POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES...SO WON/T GO NUTS WITH HIGHS. .UNR...NONE. $$ HELGESON sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1109 AM MST SUN MAR 2 2003 WILL BE ISSUING AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO ADDRESS ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS. GRADIENT BETWEEN EXITING SURFACE HIGH AND DEVELOPING LEE TROF HAS BECOME QUITE STRONG OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LASTEST RUC/ETA...WILL BE PUTTING BREEZY IN THE WEST WHILE KEEPING 10 TO 20 IN THE EAST. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND GUIDANCE PARTLY SUNNY OR BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY LOOKS GOOD. CLOUDS AND RECYCLED COOL AIR KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TOO MUCH...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA THAT IS EXPERIENCING GOOD DOWNSLOPE. PROGGED 850 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD SUGGEST MUCH HIGHER THAN CURRENT FORECAST. WILL KEEP CURRENT MAXES IN THE EAST AND EXTREME SOUTH DUE TO CLOUD COVER LASTING THE LONGEST...LINGERING SNOW COVER...AND DEEPER COLD AIR. WILL RAISE EVERYONE ELSE UP A LITTLE. .GLD...NONE. $$ BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 255 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2003 RADAR SHOWS THE COLD FRONT CROSSING THE NIAGARA PENINSULA AT THIS TIME WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. ETA BUFKIT IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A SHORT SPIKE OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT SO WE WILL DROP BACK TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE EVENING IN THE WEST. QPF AMOUNTS ARE HIGHER FROM WATERTOWN TO SYRACUSE SO WE WILL RETAIN LIKELY POPS MAINLY IN THE EVENING. ROCHESTER BUFKIT SHOWS THE INVERSION LIFTING TO 6000 FEET OVERNIGHT, AND WITH WINDS LINING UP FROM THE NORTHWEST, BOTH THE ETA AND RUC10 SHOW SNOW MOVING ONSHORE FROM NIAGARA COUNTY TO OSWEGO COUNTY AFTER 6Z. SO WE WILL KEEP THE LIKELY POPS OVER MONROE WAYNE AND NORTHERN CAYUGA COUNTIES AND CHANCE POPS ALONG NIAGARA ORLEANS AND OSWEGO COUNTIES. WINDS SHOULD BE BRISK TONIGHT WITH GOOD MIXING - ENOUGH TO BRING THE WIND CHILLS TO ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT, THEN RISING DURING THE MORNING AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND TEMPERATURES RISE. TUESDAY'S LOW MOVES RAPIDLY BY SO ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD LESS THAN AN INCH TUESDAY, AND THE DYNAMICS KEEP MOVING RAPIDLY TUESDAY NIGHT, SO EVEN THOUGH THERE IS GOOD UPLIFT, AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, AND THE AVN HINTS AT A CHANCE OF A MIX. THE NEXT SHOT COMES ON FRIDAY, WITH AGAIN A CHANCE OF A MIX AS THE LOW RUSHES BY TO THE NORTH. .BUF...WIND CHILL ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021. $$ APB ny AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1130 AM CST SUN MAR 2 2003 .UPDATE... LATE MORNING UPDATE TO LOWER MAX T GRID VALUES OVER EASTERN HALF OF CWA. KEEPING OPTOMISTIC MAX T OUT EAST...BUT EVEN LATEST RUC LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROGS SUGGESTING HIGH TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 7 DEGREES COOLER OVER THIS AREA THAN GOING FORECAST HAS. CIRRUS ALSO BARRELING INTO CWA ATTM. MID/LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK ALSO MAKING ENTRANCE INTO FAR WESTERN CWA ALREADY. SO...UPDATING FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS WORDING. NOTABLE SURFACE WARM FRONT/BOUNDARY TAKING SHAPE IN SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING A LITTLE WAYS SOUTH AND WEST OF CWA CURRENTLY. UPDATING TO TWEAK TEMPS/DWPTS/SKYCOVER/RH/WNDCHLLS THIS AM. REMAINDER OF GRIDS OKAY FOR NOW. HOPE TO HAVE AFTERNOON ISC GRIDS OUT BY 20Z TODAY. .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WINDS THIS MRNG ACROSS FAR NE SD AND WC MN SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 MPH BY 6 AM. THUS...WILL NOT CONTINUE WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...MDLS SHOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST TODAY WITH SFC LOW PRES DROPPING SE OUT OF CANADA BY EVENING. THEREFORE...SKIES WILL BE SUNNY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN ACROSS THE CWA. WITH GOOD SFC HEATING ALONG WITH WAA...LOWS BELOW ZERO THIS MRNG SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS BY LATE AFTN. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 ACROSS FAR NE SD AND WC MN TO 25 TO 30 IN THE PIERRE AREA. THE MDLS ARE PRETTY CLOSE WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SFC LOW PRES AS IT MOVES SE INTO S ND THROUGH 6Z TONIGHT. THE GFS AND NGM THEN TAKE THE SFC LOW ACROSS NE SD WHILE THE ETA TRACKS IT ACROSS SE ND. NEVERTHELESS...MDL QPF AGREES PRETTY WELL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NE SD AND WC MN HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. WITH SPEC HUMIDITIES IN THE 1 TO 2 G/KG RANGE ALONG WITH QUICK SATURATION AND GOOD WAA IN ADVANCE OF THIS SFC LOW...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NC SD BY EVENING. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD QUICKLY EAST ACROSS NE SD AND WC MN THROUGH THE NIGHT. TSCTS SHOW A SHORT TIME PERIOD OF GOOD LIFT IN THE GOOD SNOW GROWTH TEMP RANGE. THUS...BELIEVE MUCH OF NE SD AND WC MN WILL SEE 1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS BY MRNG. THE ABR CWA SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THUS...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY TONIGHT OR RISE FROM THE AFTN HIGHS. ON MONDAY...THE LIGHT SNOW WILL END EARLY ACROSS FAR NE SD AND WC MN. TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP SOME IN THE MRNG ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS THROUGH AND NW WINDS BECOME N. LOW CLOUDS WILL OVERTAKE THE CWA AS TEMPS FALL IN THE AFTN. ALSO...EXEPCT SOME FLURRIES WITH THE CAA. ARCTIC AIR WILL BUILD IN STRONG MON NIGHT AND TUES AGAIN AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE CWA. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA MON NIGHT AND TUES. ALTHOUGH...WITH SOME LIFT MOVING SE ACROSS C SD...EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA MON NIGHT AS MDLS SHOW SOME QPF INTO THIS AREA. TUES WILL BE COLD...ESPECIALLY OVER NEW SNOW COVERED AREAS OF NE SD AND WC MN. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUES NIGHT AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRES MOVES DOWN THE ARCTIC FRONT. WILL HOLD OFF ON SNOW CHANCES FOR NOW. .ABR...NONE. DORN/MOHR sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 205 PM CST SUN MAR 2 2003 MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE TEMPERATURES AND SNOW CHANCES. DATA ANALYSIS AT 18Z SHOWING NORTHWEST WINDS DECREASING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE WEST CONTINUE TO MOVE IN. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RECOVER SOME AS THERE IS VERY LITTLE SNOW COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ONLY DISCERNIBLE AMOUNT WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF CLARK AND TAYLOR. MODEL INITIALIZATION DOES HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES THIS MORNING. THE ETA INITIALIZED FURTHER NORTH AND STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...THE SAME SURFACE LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. THE GFS IS STRONGER...SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH. AT 18Z...NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ETA SEEM TO BE DOING VERY WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE 18Z RUN OF THE RUC DOES SEEM TO CAPTURE THE SYSTEM BETTER. THE TROUBLING PART ABOUT THIS IS THAT BY 06Z...THE RUC IS FURTHER NORTH THAN EVEN THE ETA. NONE THE LESS...THE STRONG QG FORCING AS WELL AS THE STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOES MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...AM COMFORTABLE WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO THE 90 PERCENT CHANCE RANGE ALONG THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN VERTICAL VELOCITY REGION AT -12 TO -15C FAVORS DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH. AS A RESULT...THINK 15 TO 1 RATIOS A GOOD BET. THE ADIABATIC ASCENT IS QUITE STRONG AND FOCUSED...SUGGESTING A GOOD CHANCE OF MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES. USING THESE RATIONS...LOOKS LIKE A 2 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL EVENT. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE SHOULD DROP INTO THE PLAINS RIGHT BEHIND THIS ONE. HOWEVER...ETA/GFS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE PAST...BUT NOW HAVE SEEMED TO COME TO SOMEWHAT OF A CONSENSUS. ALL OF THE SIGNIFICANT FORCING REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...HAVE TRIMMED BACK SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND RAISED THEM ACROSS THE SOUTH...AS SUGGESTED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT. ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AIR SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE -18 TO -22 RANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE A CLEARING SKY THAT NIGHT...HAVE LOWERED MINS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AIDED BY THE FRESH SNOW COVER THAT WE RECEIVE MONDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF SIGNIFICANCE WILL AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT IN HANDLING IT. THE GFS HAS COME INTO SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF DURING IT LAST FEW RUNS. THE COMMONALITIES ARE THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ALREADY ADVERTISED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH SOME TIME DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE MAIN DISCREPANCIES FOLLOW THIS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS KEY TO WHAT WILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING IT NEARLY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GFS DOES. AS A RESULT...IT DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE AND MOVES IT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO THE SOUTHERN HAVE OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS PUSHES IT FURTHER SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE MAINLY IN CONTROL. TO MAKE MATTERS WORSE...THE 12Z EXTENDED RUN OF THE GFS SHOWS A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND A LA THE ECMWF...WITH COLD TEMPERATURES MOVING IN SUNDAY. THIS IS MARKEDLY DIFFERENT THAN THE PREVIOUS GFS RUN AND ITS 40 DEGREE MEX MOS TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IN THIS WEEKENDS FORECAST IS SO LOW...WILL FORECAST CLIMATE UNTIL COME CONFIDENCE IS BUILT. ISC GRIDS OUT...FYI...COORDINATION SOFTWARE DEAD HERE. .LSE...NONE. KRC $$ wi