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Continental water plays a crucial role in the dynamics of the Earth system. Water availability on land regulates fluxes of water and energy into the atmosphere, thereby playing a major role in the control of Earth's climate. Water availability is also a prime control of the global distribution of ecosystems and net primary productivity, with additional feedbacks to climate through the effect of vegetation on land-surface characteristics. Changes in water storage on the continents are the major control of the seasonal cycle of global-mean sea level and a significant factor in decadal to centennial sea-level rise. The time-varying load of continental water induces detectable deformations of the solid Earth and perturbations in its gravity field. This intimate relation among continental water and other parts of the Earth system presents numerous opportunities for synergy among the scientific disciplines of global hydrology, climate dynamics, global ecology, and geodesy. From a practical standpoint, such opportunities include new avenues for estimation of sensitivities of water-resource availability and streamflow characteristics to global variability and global change.
The project objectives are pursued with a global and interdisciplinary perspective. A balance is maintained among diagnostic analyses, theory, and modeling. Partnerships with other Federal agencies and universities are used to bring scientists from other disciplines into project studies. Especially strong and temporally persistent ties with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Princeton University are facilitated by location of the project in Princeton, New Jersey. For additional information, see project homepage.
REPORTS PUBLISHED 1999-2008
Funkhouser, J.E., Eng, K., Moix, M.W., in press. Low-flow characteristics and regionalization of low-flow characteristics for selected streams in Arkansas: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2008-5065, 161 p.
Milly, P.C.D., Betancourt, J., Falkenmark, M., Hirsch, R.M., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Lettenmaier, D.P., and Stouffer, R.J., 2008, Stationarity is dead: Whither water management?: Science, v. 319, no. 5863, p. 573-574. (on-line report in pdf format)
Eng, K. and Milly, P.C.D, 2007, Relating low-flow characteristics to the base flow recession time constant at partial record stream gauges: Water Resources Research, v. 43, W01201, doi:10.1029/2006WR005293. (on-line abstract or on-line journal article in pdf format)
Eng, K., Milly, P.C.D., and Tasker, G.D., 2007, Flood regionalization: A hybrid geographic and predictor-variable region-of-influence regression method: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, v. 12, p. 585 - 591. (on-line abstract)
Eng, K., Stedinger, J.R., and Gruber, A.M., 2007, Regionalization of stramflow characteristics for the Gulf-Atlantic Rolling Plains using leverage guided region-of -influence regression, in Kabbes, K.C., ed., Proceedings of the World Environmental and Water Resources Congress, May 15–19, 2007, Tampa, Florida, USA: American Society of Civil Engineers. (on-line abstract)
Findell, K.L., Shevliakova, E., Milly, P.C.D., and Stouffer, R.J., 2007: Modeled impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate: Journal of Climate, v. 20, no. 14, p. 3621-3634. (on-line abstract or on-line journal in pdf format)
Milly, P.C.D., 2007, Stationarity is dead: Ground Water News & Views, Association of Ground Water Scientists and Engineers, v. 4, no. 1, p. 6, 8.
Delworth, T.L., Broccoli, A.J., Rosati, A., Stouffer, R.J., Balaji, V., Beesley, J.A., Cooke, W.F., Dixon, K.W., Dunne, J., Dunne, K.A., Durachta, J.W., Findell, K.L., Ginoux, P., Gnanadesikan, A., Gordon, C.T., Griffies, S.M., Gudgel, R., Harrison, M.J., Held, I.M., Hemler, R.S., Horowitz, L.W., Klein, S.A., Knutson, T.R., Kushner, P.J., Langenhorst, A.R., Lee, H.-C., Lin, S.-J., Lu, J., Malyshev, S.L., Milly, P.C.D., Ramaswamy, V., Russell, J., Schwarzkopf, M.D., Shevliakova, E., Sirutis, J.J., Spelman, M.J., Stern, W.F., Winton, M., Wittenberg, A.T., Wyman, B., Zeng, F., and Zhang, R., 2006, GFDL's CM2 Global Coupled Climate Models. Part I: Formulation and Simulation Characteristics: Journal of Climate, v. 19, no. 5, p. 643-674. (on-line abstract or on-line journal article in pdf format)
Findell, K.L., Knutson, T.R., and Milly, P.C.D., 2006, Weak simulated extratropical responses to complete tropical deforestation: Journal of Climate, v. 19, no. 12, p. 2835-2850. (on-line abstract or on-line journal article in pdf format)
Swenson, S.C., and Milly, P.C.D., 2006, Climate model biases in seasonality of continental water storage revealed by satellite gravimetry: Water Resources Research, v. 42, no. 3, W03201, doi:10.1029/2005WR004628. (on-line abstract or on-line paper in pdf format)
Eckardt, F., Wood, W.W., Kraemer, T., and Eng, K.G., 2005, Airborne transport of evaporite salts from the Makgadikgadi depression, Environmental Geology in Semi-Arid Environments, in Vogel, H. and Chilume, C. eds., Proceedings of the International Workshop on Environmental Geology in Semi-Arid Environments, November 11-12, 2004, Selebi-Phikwe, Botswana.
Eng, K., Tasker, G.D., and Milly, P.C.D., 2005, An analysis of region-of-influence methods for flood regionalization in the Gulf-Atlantic Rolling Plains, Journal of the American Water Resources Association, v. 41, no. 1, p. 135-143. (on-line abstract or on-line paper in pdf format)
Milly, P.C.D., 2005, Trends in the water budget of the Mississippi River basin, 1949-1997: U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 2005-3020. (on-line fact sheet in html format or on-line fact sheet in pdf format, 107 KB)
Milly, P.C.D., Dunne, K.A., and Vecchia, A.V., 2005, Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate: Nature, v. 438, no. 7066, p. 347-350. (on-line abstract or on-line paper in pdf format)
Potter, N.J., Zhang, L., Milly, P.C.D., McMahon, T.A., and Jakeman, A.J., 2005, Effects of rainfall seasonality and soil moisture capacity on mean annual water balance for Australian catchments: Water Resources Research, v. 41, no. 6, W06007, doi:10.1029/2004WR003697. (on-line abstract or on-line paper in pdf format)
Cazenave, A., Milly, P.C.D., Douville, H., Benveniste, J., Kosuth, P., and Lettenmaier, D., 2004, Space techniques used to measure change in terrestrial waters: EOS, v. 85, no. 6, p. 58-59. (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format)
The GFDL Global Atmospheric Model Development Team, 2004: The new GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM2-LM2: Evaluation with prescribed SST simulations. Journal of Climate, v. 17, no. 24, p. 4641-4673. (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format)
Manabe S., Milly, P.C.D., and Wetherald, R., 2004, Simulated long-term changes in river discharge and soil moisture due to global warming: Hydrological Sciences Journal, v. 49, no. 4, p. 625-642. (on-line abstract and on-line article in pdf format)
Manabe, S., Wetherald, R.T., Milly, P.C.D., Delworth, T.L., and Stouffer, R.J., 2004: Century-scale change in water availability: CO2-quadrupling experiment. Climatic Change, v. 64, no. 1-2, 59-76. (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format)
National Research Council, 2004, Groundwater Fluxes Across Interfaces: : National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 85 p. (on-line book)
Wood, W.W., Eckardt, F., Kraemer, T.F., and Eng, K., 2004, Quantitative eolian transport of evaporite salts from the Makgadikgadi Depression (Ntwetwe and Sua Pans) in northeastern Botswana: Implications for regional ground-water quality, in Barth, H-J., ed., Sabkha Ecosystems, v. 2, Africa Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Eng, K., Coulter, R.L., and Brutsaert, W., 2003, Vertical velocity variance in the mixed layer from radar wind profilers: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, American Society of Civil Engineers, v. 8, no. 6, p. 301-307. (on-line abstract)
Milly, P.C.D., Cazenave, A., and Gennero, M.C., 2003, Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciencies, v. 100, no. 23, p.13158-13161. (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format)
Swenson, S., Wahr, J., and Milly, P.C.D. 2003, Estimated accuracies of regional water storage variations inferred from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE): Water Resources Research, v. 39, no. 8, 1223 (on-line abstract or on-line report in pdf format)
Milly, P. C. D., and K. A. Dunne, 2002, Macroscale water fluxes 1. Quantifying errors in the estimation of basin mean precipitation: Water Resources Research, v. 38, no. 10. (on-line abstract or paper in pdf format)
Milly, P. C. D., and K. A. Dunne, 2002, Macroscale water fluxes 2. Water and energy supply control of their interannual variability: Water Resources Research, v. 38, no. 10. (on-line abstract or paper in pdf format)
Milly, P.C.D., and Shmakin, A.B., 2002, Global modeling of land water and energy balances, Part I: The Land Dynamics (LaD) model: Journal of Hydrometerology, v. 3, no.3, p. 283-299. (on-line abstract)
Milly, P.C.D., and Shmakin, A.B., 2002, Global modeling of land water and energy balances, Part II: Land-Characteristic Contributions to Spatial Variability, Journal of Hydrometerology,v. 3, no.3, p. 301-310. (on-line abstract)
Milly, P.C.D., and Wetherald, R.T., 2002, Macroscale water fluxes 3. Effects of land processes on variability of monthly river discharge: Water Resources Research, v. 38, no. 11. (on-line abstract or paper in pdf format)
Milly, P.C.D., Wetherald, R.T., Dunne, K.A., and Delworth, T.L., 2002, Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate: Nature, v. 415, p. 514-517. (on-line abstract or on-line article in pdf format, with permission from Nature)
Schlosser C.A., and Milly, P.C.D., 2002, A model-based investigation of soil moisture predictability and associated climate predictability: Journal of Hydrometerology, v. 3, no. 4, p. 483-501. (on-line abstract or paper in pdf format)
Shmakin, A.B., Milly, P.C.D., and Dunne, K.A., 2002, Global modeling of land water and energy balances, Part III: Interannual Variability: Journal of Hydrometerology,v. 3, no.3, p. 311-321. (on-line abstract)
Koster, R.D., Dirmeyer, P.A., Milly, P.C.D., and Russell, G.L., 2001, Comparing GCM-generated land surface water budgets using a simple common framework, in Lakshmi, V., ed., Land Surface Hydrology, Meteorology, and Climate - Observations and Modeling: American Geophysical Union, p. 95-105. (on-line abstract)
Milly, P.C.D., 2001, A minimalist probabilistic description of root zone soil water: Water Resources Research, v. 37, p. 457-463. (on-line abstract or article in pdf format)
Milly, P.C.D., and Dunne, K.A., 2001, Trends in evaporation and surface cooling in the Mississippi River basin: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 28, no. 7, p. 1219-1222. (on-line abstract)
van Dam, T., Wahr, J., Milly, P.C.D., and Olivier, F., 2001, Gravity changes due to continental water stroage: Journal of Geodetic Society of Japan, v. 47, no. 1, p. 249-254. (on-line abstract)
van Dam, T., Wahr, J., Milly, P.C.D., Shmakin, A.B., Blewitt, G., Lavallée, D., and Larson, K.M., 2001, Crustal displacements due to continental water loading: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 28, no. 4, p. 651-654. (on-line abstract or to download paper in pdf format)
Costa, J.E., Bales, J., Holtschlag, D., Lanfear, K., Lipscomb, S., Milly, P.C.D., Viger, R., and Wolock, D., 1999, An initiative for a U.S. Geological Survey National Streamflow Information Program: Planning Ahead--Reducing Flood Losses in the 21st Century, Proceedings, Portland, Oregon, May 24-28, 1999, Association of State Floodplain Managers, p. 263-267.
Milly, P.C.D., 1999, Factors determining the partitioning of precipitation into evaporation and runoff, in Browning, K.A., and Gurney, R.J., eds., Global Energy and Water Cycles: Cambridge Univ. Press, p. 247-253.
Milly, P.C.D., 1999, Comment on "Antiphasing between rainfall in Africa's Rift Valley and North America's Great Basin": Quaternary Research, v. 51, p. 104-107.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS PROJECT, CONTACT:
Chris Milly
U.S. Geological Survey c/o Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, P. O. Box 308, Princeton, New Jersey 08542,
Email: cmilly@usgs.gov
Telephone: 609-452-6507
Kenny Eng
U.S. Geological Survey, 430 National Center, 12201 Sunrise Valley Drive, Reston, VA 20192
Email keng@usgs.gov
Telephone: 703-648-5843
For information on additional projects in the National Research Program, see Indexes to NRP projects and bibliographies
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U.S. Geological Survey
