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Forest growth response and sensivity to climatic variability across multiple spatial scales in the Olympic Mountains, Washington

Metadata:


Identification_Information:
Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Melisa L. Holman
Publication_Date: 2004
Title:
Forest growth response and sensivity to climatic variability across multiple spatial scales in the Olympic Mountains, Washington
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: Journal article
Other_Citation_Details:
Master of Science thesis, College of Forest Resources, University of Washington
Larger_Work_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: College of Forest Resources, University of Washington
Publication_Date: Unpublished Material
Title:
CLIMET (Climate-Landscape Interactions on a Mountain Ecosystem Transect) Ecoplot Data for North Cascades and Olympic Mountains, Washington
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: Database
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: University of Washington, Seattle, WA
Publisher: David L. Peterson
Online_Linkage:
http://www.cfr.washington.edu/research.fme/climet/
Description:
Abstract:
Forests of the Pacific Northwest are highly productive and may act as substantial carbon sinks as global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide continue to rise. Few studies analyze how tree growth sensitivity to climatic variability varies over multiple spatial scales-including responses of non-dominant trees and trees that are not located at the extremes of their growth ranges. We quantified tree growth for all size classes and species in 76 forest plots (0.05 ha) spanning the diversity of forest types and growing conditions in the Hoh River watershed on the wet, west side of the Olympic Mountains, and the Dungeness River watershed, within the eastern rainshadow. We compared annual basal area increment (BAI) during two different time periods (1947-1976 and 1977-2000), representing approximately the two most recent phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a dominant system of interdecadal climatic variability in the Pacific Northwest. We performed analyses at different spatial scales (stand, forest type, watershed, subregion) to determine the scale of the dominant growth influence during these periods of contrasting climate. Growth correlations at small spatial scales suggest that trees are responding to very local growth conditions. However, significant positive growth correlations between geographically adjacent forest types (R=0.440-0.852) and between watersheds (R=0.430) indicate that there is a common overarching growth-limiting factor (or set of co-occurring factors) that similarly affects the growth of many trees over large areas. Because the magnitude and direction of future climatic variability and change remain uncertain at the regional scale, we also estimated the sensitivity of forest types to annual variability in growth-limiting factors. The Sitka spruce forest type in the Hoh watershed is the most sensitive to environmental change with the highest mean sensitivity (0.345), the highest potential for annual growth change (mean BAI=0.0047 m2), and the highest growth variability (coefficient of variation = 0.498, range in variability = 4.40 m2). In addition, this forest type is most likely to exhibit extreme positive growth responses (4.2% of years have BAI values two standard deviations above the mean).
Purpose:
The Hoh Sitka spruce forest type and other highly productive Pacific Northwest forest types are relatively sensitive to changes in growth-limiting factors and will likely play an important role in storing carbon in a warmer future climate. Managers can employ the processes used in this study to evaluate the sensitivity and carbon storage potential of forests in other subregions within the Pacific Northwest (and elsewhere), thereby increasing our understanding of the potential effects of climatic change on regional productivity and carbon dynamics.
Supplemental_Information:
A central goal of this study was to capture the full range of tree and forest growth patterns and to retain as much of the natural growth variation as possible. Therefore, we extensively sampled forest environments, including all tree species and size classes. We used unstandardized basal area increment values in order to retain variance in growth data and to preserve the natural unbalanced weighting of trees of different sizes and species. The changes in growth patterns of dominant trees will, of course, contribute more to overall changes in forest productivity and carbon cycling. Results are also reported for prewhitened time series, which have had growth removed that resulted from a lag in growth response to a previous year’s growth conditions. Prewhitening allows more accurate comparisons of annual growth patterns for different forests, but it does remove low-frequency variation in growth that may be of interest for some analyses.
Status:
Progress: Complete
Spatial_Domain:
Description_of_Geographic_Extent: Hoh River and Dungeness River watersheds, Olympic Mountains
Point_of_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Person_Primary:
Contact_Person: David L. Peterson
Contact_Organization:
USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Fire and Environmental Applications Team
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: mailing address
Address: Box 352100
City: Seattle
State_or_Province: WA
Postal_Code: 98195
Country: USA
Contact_Voice_Telephone: (206)543-1587
Contact_Facsimile_Telephone: (206)685-0790
Contact_Electronic_Mail_Address: wild@u.washington.edu
Data_Set_Credit:
David L. Peterson. The Fire and Mountain Ecology lab: Jill Nakawatase, Michael Case, Jeremy Littell, Don McKenzie, and Amy Hessl. Other members of my committee: Linda Brubaker and Tom Hinckley.
Cross_Reference:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Jill M. Nakawatase
Publication_Date: 2003
Title:
Spatial and temporal variability in tree growth-climate relationships in the Olympic Mountains, Washington
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: Journal article
Other_Citation_Details: Thesis for Master of Science, University of Washington
Larger_Work_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: College of Forest Resources, University of Washington
Publication_Date: Unpublished Material
Title:
CLIMET (Climate-Landscape Interactions on a Mountain Ecosystem Transect) Ecoplot Data for North Cascades and Olympic Mountains, Washington
Geospatial_Data_Presentation_Form: Database
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: University of Washington, Seattle, WA
Publisher: David L. Peterson
Online_Linkage:
http://www.cfr.washington.edu/research.fme/climet/
Taxonomy:
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Kingdom
Taxon_Rank_Value: Plantae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subkingdom
Taxon_Rank_Value: Tracheobionta
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Division
Taxon_Rank_Value: Coniferophyta
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Class
Taxon_Rank_Value: Pinopsida
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Order
Taxon_Rank_Value: Pinales
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Family
Taxon_Rank_Value: Cupressaceae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Chamaecyparis
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Chamaecyparis nootkatensis
Applicable_Common_Name: Alaska cedar
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Thuja
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Thuja plicata
Applicable_Common_Name: western red cedar
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Family
Taxon_Rank_Value: Pinaceae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Abies
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Abies amabilis
Applicable_Common_Name: Pacific silver fir
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Abies grandis
Applicable_Common_Name: grand fir
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Abies lasiocarpa
Applicable_Common_Name: subalpine fir
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Pinus
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Pinus contorta
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Variety
Taxon_Rank_Value: Pinus contorta var. latifolia
Applicable_Common_Name: tall lodgepole pine
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Tsuga
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Tsuga heterophylla
Applicable_Common_Name: western hemlock
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Division
Taxon_Rank_Value: Magnoliophyta
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Class
Taxon_Rank_Value: Magnoliopsida
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subclass
Taxon_Rank_Value: Hamamelidae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Order
Taxon_Rank_Value: Fagales
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Family
Taxon_Rank_Value: Betulaceae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Alnus
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Alnus rubra
Applicable_Common_Name: red alder
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Subclass
Taxon_Rank_Value: Rosidae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Order
Taxon_Rank_Value: Sapindales
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Family
Taxon_Rank_Value: Aceraceae
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Genus
Taxon_Rank_Value: Acer
Taxonomic_Classification:
Taxon_Rank_Name: Species
Taxon_Rank_Value: Acer macrophyllum
Applicable_Common_Name: bigleaf maple
Analytical_Tool:
Analytical_Tool_Description:
COFECHA: used for data quality control on tree-ring measurements, to verify crossdating among ring measurement series.
Tool_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Grissino-Mayer, H.D., Holmes, R.L., and Fritts, H.C.
Publication_Date: 1992
Title: International tree-ring data bank program library: users manual
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Tucson, AZ
Publisher: Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona
Other_Citation_Details: 104 pp
Online_Linkage: www.ltrr.arizona.edu/software.html
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Data_Quality_Information:
Lineage:
Methodology:
Methodology_Type: Field
Methodology_Description:
* Data collection

We collected data in the Hoh (37 plots) and Dungeness (39 plots) watersheds during the summers of 2001 and 2002, as part of the CLIMET (Climate-Landscape Interactions on a Mountain Ecosystem Transect) program (Fagre et al. 2003). We selected plot access points (mostly National Park trails) prior to sampling using vegetation classifications based on Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery (University of Washington Prism project) and topographic maps (A. Hessl, personal communication). We chose exact plot locations in the field, with the goal of sampling a comprehensive range of the vegetation assemblages and physiographic environments of each watershed.

Plots (0.05 ha) ranged in elevation from near sea level to tree line and were located on various aspects and slopes of varying steepness. Plots were located in mature stands with no obvious evidence of disturbance. This "biomonitoring" procedure of sampling a small subset of geographic locations and species is a rapid and cost effective method of estimating trends in productivity as they relate to climatic change (Hessl and Peterson 2004). Within each plot, we noted the location coordinates using a GPS unit and the physical characteristics of elevation, slope, and aspect. We recorded species, diameter at breast height (DBH) and height of all trees greater than 10 cm DBH. We took two increment cores from each of two live individuals representing each 10-cm diameter class for all tree species present on the plot. We collected a total of 532 tree cores in the Hoh watershed and 547 tree cores in the Dungeness watershed.

Methodology_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Fagre, D, Peterson, D.L., Hessl, A.E.
Publication_Date: 2003
Title:
Taking the pulse of mountains: ecosystem responses to climatic variability
Series_Information:
Series_Name: Clim. Change
Issue_Identification: 59: 263-282
Methodology_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Hessl, A.E. and Peterson, D.L.
Publication_Date: 2004
Title:
Interannual variability in aboveground tree growth in Stehekin River Watershed, North Cascade Range, Washington
Series_Information:
Series_Name: Northw. Sci.
Issue_Identification: In press
Methodology:
Methodology_Type: Lab
Methodology_Description:
* Core Processing

We crossdated and measured ring widths of all tree cores following the procedures of Stokes and Smiley (1968) and Fritts (1976). We did not include cores that did not crossdate well visually in this analysis. Following crossdating, we measured ring widths for each core to the nearest 0.001 mm using a Velmex measuring system. We remeasured a randomly selected 10-year segment of each core for quality control. If the standard deviation of the difference (absolute value) between measured and remeasured sections was greater than 0.05, we remeasured the entire core. We verified crossdating using the COFECHA program (Holmes 1999).

* Time periods of analysis

We chose the time periods of this analysis for several reasons. We chose to restrict the length of the time period to the past half century both so as not to underestimate total plot productivity through successive losses due to mortality as well as to focus the analysis and conclusions on the recent period of increasing growth that may have been affected by increasing global temperatures and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (e.g., Peterson et al. 1991, Peterson 1994, Innes 1998, McKenzie et al. 2001). In addition, we divided the analysis into two sections according to the two most recent phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (cool, wet PDO = 1947-1976; warm, dry PDO = 1977-2000; Mantua 2002) because tree growth patterns might be affected differently during each phase (Peterson et al. 2002, Keeton et al. 2003).

* Plot-Scale Calculations

We converted ring widths and DBH measurements into annual diameter increments with the following equation, which considers the species-specific increase in bark thickness as a tree grows:

Dt-1 = [Dt - (Bs * Dt)] - Rt / 1 - Bt

Dt-1 = diameter at breast height at year t-1

Dt = diameter at breast height at year t

Bs = bark coefficient for species s (Appendix B)

Rt = 2*ring width during year t

This equation introduces a small amount of error into the growth time series as some bark coefficients are derived outside of the PNW. However, because we are comparing relative growth patterns, this error should not affect interpretation of the results.

We then converted these values into annual basal area increments:

BAI= pi * (Dt/2)^2 -pi * (Dt-1/2)^2.

Unlike ring widths, BAI is not subject to decreasing trends as a tree grows, and therefore no detrending is necessary. In addition, BAI serves as a more accurate measure of tree growth than ring widths (Visser 1995). BAI is also a reasonable proxy for the aboveground net primary productivity (NPP) of a stand (Hessl and Peterson 2004). Complete measures of forest NPP are difficult because they must also include belowground productivity, mortality, litterfall, and grazing-factors that were not quantified in this study. We attempted to minimize the loss of previous years’ BAI due to mortality by restricting the time period of analysis. However, the results from the analysis of the earlier time period (1947-1976) should be interpreted with caution because they may more seriously underestimate plot or forest growth amounts. While we expect that BAI measurements underestimate actual forest NPP, they are an effective means of detecting responses to environmental conditions (Hessl and Peterson 2004).

We assigned uncored individuals in the plot (>30 years) with BAI time series for cored individuals of the same species and size class within that plot or (infrequently) from a plot in the same forest type with similar physical characteristics. The local error inherent in this process is necessary to improve data representation of physical and ecological gradients in each watershed and improve conclusions at larger scales. We summed the tree BAI values to establish total plot BAI time series and calculate total plot basal area. In addition, we calculated a weighted arithmetic average of BAI time series and basal areas for the entire plot. We prewhitened average plot BAI time series by fitting autoregressive models, using the first-minimum Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) to select the model order (number of autocorrelated years). Prewhitening removes autocorrelation trends due to lag effects of growth influences on subsequent years’ growth. Resulting time series are more statistically robust for year-to-year comparisons, but may lack a significant portion of the actual growth amount. Therefore, we report results for multiple growth measures: each plot is represented by total plot basal area and three growth time series, or chronologies, which are the 1) sums of the BAI time series for every individual in the plot and 2) arithmetic averages of the BAI time series for every individual in the plot and 3) the prewhitened plot-average time series.

* Forest-Type Calculations

We partitioned plots into forest types according to the biotic zones and major tree species delineated by Buckingham et al. (1995) in relation to aspect and elevation within the Olympic Peninsula (Figure 4). We expanded the plot measurements to forest types by summing plot BAI and total basal area for all the plots within a forest type, resulting in a single time series of basal area per hectare for each forest type, as well as values of total basal area per ha. We also calculated weighted averages of prewhitened, averaged plot BAI time series within each forest type. We then similarly expanded these forest-type values to obtain overall growth time series for each watershed.

* Correlation Analysis

We calculated mean interseries correlation to assess the degree of similarity among individual BAI time series within each plot as well as among total plot BAI time series within each forest type. Mean interseries correlation calculations present the average of all pair-wise Pearson product-moment correlation coefficients for each BAI series within a plot. Pearson correlation coefficients are a measure of the amount of similarity in year-to-year variation in growth. Similarly, mean "interplot" correlations represent the overall degree of correspondence in growth patterns between plots within a forest type. We also evaluated Pearson correlation coefficients of all possible forest type pairs, as well as between watershed BAI time series to see if growth patterns are statistically similar between certain forest types; this provides information on the scope of growth influences. We also evaluated mean interseries correlation strength among plots grouped by aspect and slope as well as by the non-geographic factors of species, size class, and sample size. Because this correlation analysis encompasses multiple scales, we can examine the correlation strength of growth patterns at these different scales (i.e., plot, forest type, watershed) as an indication of the scale of the dominant growth influences.

* Cluster Analysis

We used agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis with the single linkage method of creating clusters for the prewhitened plot average BAI data (see Rencher 2002). Cluster analysis compares the average growth amount between successive sets of years. The single linkage method calculates the sum of the annual differences in growth amount between BAI series pairs. For example, if all the differences between series pairs are small, then the overall distance between those two plots on the cluster diagram will also be small. This allows us to assess the amount of variation between plot BAI patterns and to determine the most appropriate groupings of plots according to shared growth variability. Clusters contain plots that have similar magnitudes of difference between paired annual BAI series.

* Sensitivity Analysis

We chose the following measures of tree growth and growth variability to provide a comprehensive view of the relative sensitivity of trees and forests to changes in growth-limiting factors:

1) Mean sensitivity - difference between adjacent BAIs within an individual time series divided by the mean of the two increments, averaged over the entire series. This is a measure of the year-to-year variability in growth. A tree with a high mean sensitivity usually has experienced more growth limitation due to environmental factors, such as climate (Fritts 1976).

2) Standard error - amount of variation in BAI relative to growth amount, independent of sample size.

3) Coefficient of variation - measure of relative variability in BAI, independent of growth amount.

4) Magnitude of growth variability - indication of the possible degree of change. Calculated using prewhitened BAI plot averages to allow comparison among forest types (maximum BAI minus minimum BAI).

5) Autocorrelation - indication of how long (years) a given change in a growth-limiting factor affects tree growth. This information is provided from the prewhitening process.

6) Extreme growth - number of years for which growth exceeds a threshold value (1 and 2 times the standard deviation above and below the mean).

Unless noted above, we calculated these sensitivity measures using individual BAI time series and then averaged the calculated values to obtain relative plot and forest-type sensitivity estimates. All of these measures were considered in making a final estimation and comparison of forest sensitivity. In addition, forest types that grow more and have high growth variability (mean sensitivity and coefficient of variation) may have more dramatic swings in growth and productivity from year to year in response to environmental variability (Hessl and Peterson 2004).

Methodology_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Stokes, M. A., and T. L. Smiley
Publication_Date: 1968
Title: An introduction to tree-ring dating
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Chicago, IL
Publisher: The University of Chicago Press
Methodology_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Fritts, H.C.
Publication_Date: 1976
Title: Tree rings and climate
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: London , UK
Publisher: Academic Press
Methodology_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Holmes, R.L.
Publication_Date: 1999
Title: Users Manual for Program COFECHA
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: Tucson, AZ
Publisher: Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona
Methodology_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Peterson, D.L.
Publication_Date: 1991
Title:
Sensitivity of subalpine forests in the Pacific Northwest to global climate change
Series_Information:
Series_Name: NW Environ. J.
Issue_Identification: 7(2): 349-350
Methodology_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Peterson, D. L.
Publication_Date: 1994
Title:
Recent changes in the growth and establishment of subalpine conifers in western North America
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: New York
Other_Citation_Details:
In Mountain Environments in Changing Climates. Edited by Beniston, M. Routledge, London; pp. 234-243
Methodology_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Innes, J.L.
Publication_Date: 1998
Title: Measuring environmental change
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: New York
Publisher: Columbia University Press
Other_Citation_Details:
In Ecological scale: theory and applications. Edited by D.L. Peterson and V.T. Parker; pp. 429-457
Methodology_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: McKenzie, D., Peterson, D.W., Peterson, D.L, Thornton, P.E.
Publication_Date: 2003
Title:
Climatic and biophysical controls on conifer species distributions in mountain forests of Washington State, USA
Series_Information:
Series_Name: J. Biogeogr.
Issue_Identification: 30: 1093-1108
Methodology_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Mantua, N.J. and Hare, S.R.
Publication_Date: 2002
Title: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Series_Information:
Series_Name: J. Oceanogr.
Issue_Identification: 58: 35-44
Methodology_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Peterson, D.W., D.L. Peterson, and G.J. Ettl.
Publication_Date: 2002
Title:
Growth response of subalpine fir to climatic variability in the Pacific Northwest
Series_Information:
Series_Name: Can. J. For. Res.
Issue_Identification: 32: 1503-1517
Methodology_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Keeton, W.S., Franklin, J.F., Mote, P.W.
Publication_Date: 2003
Title:
Climate variability, climate change, and forest ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest
Other_Citation_Details:
Draft; In Rhythms of Change: Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest. Edited by E.L. Miles, A.K. Snover, and the Climate Impacts Group
Methodology_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Visser, H.
Publication_Date: 1995
Title: Note on the relation between ring widths and basal area increments
Series_Information:
Series_Name: Forest Science
Issue_Identification: 41: 297-304
Methodology_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Hessl, A.E. and Peterson, D.L.
Publication_Date: 2004
Title:
Interannual variability in aboveground tree growth in Stehekin River Watershed, North Cascade Range, Washington
Series_Information:
Series_Name: Northw. Sci.
Issue_Identification: In press
Methodology_Citation:
Citation_Information:
Originator: Rencher, A.C.
Publication_Date: 1995
Title: Methods of multivariate analysis
Publication_Information:
Publication_Place: New York
Publisher: Wiley and Sons
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Entity_and_Attribute_Information:
Overview_Description:
Entity_and_Attribute_Overview:
Database is used in "CLIMET ECOPLOT" metadata record. See larger work citation.
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Metadata_Reference_Information:
Metadata_Date: 20040415
Metadata_Review_Date: 20040525
Metadata_Contact:
Contact_Information:
Contact_Organization_Primary:
Contact_Organization: Fire and Mountain Ecology Lab, College of Forest Resources
Contact_Address:
Address_Type: mailing address
Address: University of Washington, Box 352100
City: Seattle
State_or_Province: WA
Postal_Code: 98195-2100
Country: USA
Metadata_Standard_Name:
FGDC Biological Data Profile of the Content Standard for Digital Geospatial Metadata
Metadata_Standard_Version: FGDC-STD-001.1-1999
Metadata_Time_Convention: local time
Metadata_Access_Constraints: None
Metadata_Use_Constraints: None
Metadata_Security_Information:
Metadata_Security_Classification_System: None
Metadata_Security_Classification: Unclassified
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