AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1244 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2005 .AVIATION... LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS STILL OCCURRING AT SBN AND LESSER SO AT FWA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE WIND TURNS TO THE WEST THIS EVENING. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED IN NATURE SO CONDITIONS WORSEN WHENEVER A SNOW SHOWER PASSES OVER SBN. A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO MAY MAKE IT TO FWA BEFORE THE WIND TURNS TO THE WEST THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG ENOUGH OF A PERIOD TO MENTION. THEN LATER TONIGHT SOME MORE VFR CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO SBN. ALSO AT BOTH SBN AND FWA THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON TONIGHT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM... TODAY...EAST/WEST BAND OF ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA ATTM ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THIS BAND TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND WEAKEN BY 12Z. MEANWHILE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE REORGANIZING ONCE AGAIN ON 340 DEGREE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. 00Z NAM AND LOCALLY RUN WORKSTATION ETA 925MB OMEGA FIELDS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF BANDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL FOLLOW FOR THIS PACKAGE. EXPECT MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. WORKSTATION ETA SUGGESTING DOMINANT SHORE PARALLEL BAND MAY FORM FOR A TIME THIS MORNING AS FLOW VEERS TO THE LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE. SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN BY DAWN AND STRONG COOLING OVER THE LAND IN LOWER MICHIGAN MAY RESULT IN LAND BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL AID LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LAKESHORE. SEEING SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS ALREADY WITH KBIV AND KMKG HAVING OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT. WILL GO WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMS OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW QUICKLY BACKS AND BECOMES MORE SHEARED AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO ILLINOIS. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WSW TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z SAT. WAA ALOFT AND MODERATE TO HIGH SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SEVERELY LIMIT LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. LAKE INDUCED CAPES IN THE EVENING OF 200J/KG DROP TO ALMOST NIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WAA ALOFT. 13KM FSL EXPERIMENTAL RUC KEEPS MEASURABLE QPF NORTH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT FROM KAZO NORTH WHERE DEEPER COLD AIR IS SLOWER TO DEPART AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SW FLOW IS FAVORED. WAS CONSIDERING DROPPING POPS ALL TOGETHER BUT WILL KEEP CONTINUITY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS OVER MICHIGAN COUNTIES. APPROACHING TROUGH COMBINED WITH LINGERING LAKE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO GOING. LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... WK CDFNT WILL DROP SE ACRS THE GRTLKS SAT AND THEN STALL OUT OVER CWA SAT NGT AS SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. H85 TEMPS A LITTLE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SAT, BUT, WITH WK FRONT MOVG THROUGH LEFT IN A LOW POP OVER SWRN MI WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHSN. SRN STREAM LOW MOVG EAST OUT OF PLAINS ON SAT NGT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS INDIANA ON SUNDAY. WITH GULF OPENING UP THIS SRN STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE LOTS OF MOISTURE WITH STRONG ISENT LIFT DVLPG NORTH OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MAIN QUESTION IS TIMING THE PRECIP AS GFS IW QUICKER TO MOVE IT IN THAN NAM. WENT WITH COMPROMISE BETWEEN MODELS WHICH IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FCST BUT WELL COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS. WITH GFS NOW CONSIDERABLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH TRACK OF LOW AND SIMILAR TO NAM EXTENDED THE CHC OF SNOW INTO SUNDAY ACROSS SRN PORTION OF CWA. ALSO APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT, SHOULD BE BRIEF IN THE TRANSITION FROM RN TO SN IF IT DOES OCCUR, SO FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF FCST. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER MON AS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. 00Z GFS GENERALLY SUPPORTS WX GRIDS IN LATER PERIODS OF FCST WITH ANOTHER WK SHRTWV FCST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MON NGT BRINGING A CHC OF SNOW AND THEN DRY WX TUE-THU AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SLOWLY ESE FM NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE GRTLKS. LEANED TOWARD COOLEST MOS TEMPS SAT AS ARCTIC AIRMASS LIKELY A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE OUT THAN FCST BY MODELS AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING ON ETA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACRS SRN PORTION OF CWA LOOKING OVERDONE. UP TO 10F DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MAV/MET MOS FOR HIGHS SUNDAY. GENERALLY WENT WITH COMPROMISE AND LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF SFC LOW BY GFS. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IN...NONE. .MI...NONE. .OH...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK LONG TERM...TAYLOR in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 625 AM EST FRI FEB 18 2005 .AVIATION... MAIN CONCERN FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE REVOLVES AROUND THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT SNOW. BANDING HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THE PAST FEW HOURS AS 340 DEGREE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A DEPARTING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH. 06Z NAM 925MB OMEGA ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO KEEP BANDING STATUS QUO THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BEGINS TO QUICKLY BACK AND DISRUPT FETCH. ALSO EXPECT BANDS TO BEGIN TO BREAK APART INTO A MORE DISORGANIZED CELLULAR STRUCTURE ONCE DAYTIME HEATING GETS GOING UNDER THE NOW STRONGER MID FEBRUARY SUN. WILL CONTINUE WITH MVFR TEMPO IFR AT KSBN THROUGH THE MORNING. KFWA COULD ALSO SEE A FEW MVFR SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS WELL WITH LAKE BANDS PENETRATING WELL INLAND. LATER THIS AFTERNOON CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AS SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. && .SHORT TERM... TODAY...EAST/WEST BAND OF ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA ATTM ALONG AND JUST BEHIND A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH. EXPECT THIS BAND TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND WEAKEN BY 12Z. MEANWHILE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE REORGANIZING ONCE AGAIN ON 340 DEGREE FLOW ACROSS WESTERN MICHIGAN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. 00Z NAM AND LOCALLY RUN WORKSTATION ETA 925MB OMEGA FIELDS HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF BANDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL FOLLOW FOR THIS PACKAGE. EXPECT MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. WORKSTATION ETA SUGGESTING DOMINANT SHORE PARALLEL BAND MAY FORM FOR A TIME THIS MORNING AS FLOW VEERS TO THE LONG AXIS OF THE LAKE. SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL WEAKEN BY DAWN AND STRONG COOLING OVER THE LAND IN LOWER MICHIGAN MAY RESULT IN LAND BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL AID LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LAKESHORE. SEEING SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS ALREADY WITH KBIV AND KMKG HAVING OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT. WILL GO WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMS OVER THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW QUICKLY BACKS AND BECOMES MORE SHEARED AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO ILLINOIS. EXPECT LAKE EFFECT TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WSW TONIGHT AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z SAT. WAA ALOFT AND MODERATE TO HIGH SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SEVERELY LIMIT LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. LAKE INDUCED CAPES IN THE EVENING OF 200J/KG DROP TO ALMOST NIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WAA ALOFT. 13KM FSL EXPERIMENTAL RUC KEEPS MEASURABLE QPF NORTH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT FROM KAZO NORTH WHERE DEEPER COLD AIR IS SLOWER TO DEPART AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SW FLOW IS FAVORED. WAS CONSIDERING DROPPING POPS ALL TOGETHER BUT WILL KEEP CONTINUITY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS OVER MICHIGAN COUNTIES. APPROACHING TROUGH COMBINED WITH LINGERING LAKE INSTABILITY MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO GOING. && .LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... WK CDFNT WILL DROP SE ACRS THE GRTLKS SAT AND THEN STALL OUT OVER CWA SAT NGT AS SRN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. H85 TEMPS A LITTLE LOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SAT, BUT, WITH WK FRONT MOVG THROUGH LEFT IN A LOW POP OVER SWRN MI WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHSN. SRN STREAM LOW MOVG EAST OUT OF PLAINS ON SAT NGT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS INDIANA ON SUNDAY. WITH GULF OPENING UP THIS SRN STREAM SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE LOTS OF MOISTURE WITH STRONG ISENT LIFT DVLPG NORTH OF OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MAIN QUESTION IS TIMING THE PRECIP AS GFS IW QUICKER TO MOVE IT IN THAN NAM. WENT WITH COMPROMISE BETWEEN MODELS WHICH IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FCST BUT WELL COLLABORATED WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS. WITH GFS NOW CONSIDERABLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH TRACK OF LOW AND SIMILAR TO NAM EXTENDED THE CHC OF SNOW INTO SUNDAY ACROSS SRN PORTION OF CWA. ALSO APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT, SHOULD BE BRIEF IN THE TRANSITION FROM RN TO SN IF IT DOES OCCUR, SO FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF FCST. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY LINGER MON AS LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. 00Z GFS GENERALLY SUPPORTS WX GRIDS IN LATER PERIODS OF FCST WITH ANOTHER WK SHRTWV FCST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MON NGT BRINGING A CHC OF SNOW AND THEN DRY WX TUE-THU AS SFC HIGH BUILDS SLOWLY ESE FM NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE GRTLKS. LEANED TOWARD COOLEST MOS TEMPS SAT AS ARCTIC AIRMASS LIKELY A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE OUT THAN FCST BY MODELS AND AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MIXING ON ETA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ACRS SRN PORTION OF CWA LOOKING OVERDONE. UP TO 10F DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MAV/MET MOS FOR HIGHS SUNDAY. GENERALLY WENT WITH COMPROMISE AND LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH FARTHER SOUTH TRACK OF SFC LOW BY GFS. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .IN...NONE. .MI...NONE. .OH...NONE. && $$ AVIATION/SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK LONG TERM...TAYLOR in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 215 PM MST FRI FEB 18 2005 .DISCUSSION...MAIN CHALLENGES ARE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND TIMING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW NEXT WEEK. TONIGHT...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. FIRST CHALLENGE IS TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FOR CERTAIN...AND RAIN IS FALLING IN A SWATH FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. FORECAST MODELS HAVE A SEEMINGLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE ATMOSPHERE RIGHT NOW...BUT THEY ARE A LITTLE STINGY WITH THE PRECIPITATION. THE MOS PRODUCTS FOR THIS FORECAST LOWERED THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS THE AREA. ON THE OTHER HAND...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEPICT STEADY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SATURATED SOUNDINGS AROUND THE 295 K LEVEL OVERNIGHT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCE POPS RUNNING FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT. WOULD LIKE TO STEER AWAY FROM 50 PERCENT...BEING A FIRST PERIOD NON CONVECTIVE FORECAST. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND THE PRESENCE OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER...WILL LEAN TOWARD LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST...CENTERED AROUND OAKLEY AND HILL CITY...WHERE THE 18Z NAM DOES PRODUCE PRECIP. WILL HAVE 30 TO 40 POPS ELSEWHERE. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT ALL AREAS WILL SEE HEAVY DRIZZLE EVEN IF THEY DO NOT SEE RAIN. SECOND PROBLEM THEN BECOMES THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE. A TROF AXIS WHICH PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION LAST NIGHT BROUGHT VERY LOW DEWPOINTS IN...AND THESE ARE STILL IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RUC MAINTAINS DEWPOINTS BELOW FREEZING ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. SOIL TEMP OF 32.7 HERE AT GOODLAND ALSO NOT GOING TO HELP MUCH WITH GROUND HEAT FLUX. FELT STRONGLY ENOUGH TO PLACE A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN ALONG I-70 IN THE EVENING...AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 THROUGH THE NIGHT. FORECAST WILL COME OUT SAYING RAIN FOR SIMPLICITY...BUT MANY AREAS COULD SEE MORE DRIZZLE THAN RAIN. SATURDAY...OFFERS ITS OWN CHALLENGES. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SHUTS DOWN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK IN THE EAST. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE THERE IN THE MORNING TO MATCH SURROUNDING OFFICES. FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BE PREVALENT EARLY...BUT DOWNSLOPE DRYING WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYING...AND THIS COULD BE ITS MAINTENANCE OF A STRONGER JET STREAK TOPPING THE MOUNTAINS OF COLORADO. MOS PRODUCTS VERY SIMILAR ON TEMPERATURES...SO HARD TO ARGUE A WHOLE LOT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST ALL DAY...THOUGH...SO WILL UNDERCUT MOS A FEW DEGREES THERE...AND GO WITH THE MOS IN THE WEST. SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...THE TIMING OF THE DRY PUNCH COULD MAKE A 10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE. THE APPROACHING JET STREAK WILL ALSO BRING STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND PREVIOUS SHIFTS AS WELL AS SURROUNDING OFFICES WERE CONSIDERING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS THAT CHANCE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 40S WOULD BE NEEDED TO BREAK THE CAP. NOT LOOKING TOO LIKELY FROM THE SOUNDINGS...SO WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. IN THE EAST...MOISTURE STAYS TRAPPED UNDER MID LEVEL INVERSION WITH STRATUS AND FOG AT SURFACE...AND DO NOT SEE ANY MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. PERHAPS AFTER DARK WHEN THE JET KICKS OUT...MODELS INDICATE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER. A WEST WIND WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT...THOUGH...AND EXPECT A WARM DRY DAY ON SUNDAY. IN THE EXTENDED...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS. THEY PAINT A WINTRY...FOGGY...SNOWY PICTURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TIMING HAS CHANGED SLIGHTLY...BRINGING IN THE FIRST CHANCE FOR SNOW ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BECAUSE THE STORM HAS SLOWED DOWN...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR GULF MOISTURE TO GET INVOLVED LATE IN THE EVENT. THE GFS AND DGEX INDICATE SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE FLUX/WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE COLD DOME WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER KANSAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. TOO EARLY TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE AMOUNTS THOUGH. STORM TRACK AND TIMING WILL LIKELY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .KS...NONE. .NE...NONE. .CO...NONE. && $$ BURKE ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1142 AM EST FRI FEB 18 2005 .NEAR TERM... SNOW SHOWERS THAT TRAVELED ACROSS THE FA EARLIER ARE NOW CONTAINED OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS AS INSTABILITY SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST. BUFKIT SHWG MORE STABLE LAPSE RATES AND WITH DOWNSLOPE SUNSHINE PREVAILS. ADJUSTED SKY COVER AND MAX TEMPS IN MOST ZNS TO REFLECT THIS AS CAA IS SLOWER TO ARRIVE. .MARINE... HAVE PUT UP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE MERRIMACK RIVER TO PLYMOUTH...CAPE COD BAY AS WELL AS NANTUCKET AND VINEYARD SOUNDS. EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP BY EARLY TONIGHT...SO WITHIN WINDOW TO HOIST THEM. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. && ...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS TODAY WILL USHER IN VERY COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND AND SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... .MESO 1 609 AM...SNOW HAS DESCENDED TO THE SFC UNDER SOME OF THE RETURN WITH 21/2-3 MI AT BED ~ 6AM. NOWCAST CONTS POSTED AS IS. CONTD COOLING CLOUD LAYER MWN TO KBOX AXIS WITH ECHOS REDEVELOPING IN THAT AXIS. THIS COULD BE A PBLM FOR PART OF THE MORNING COMMUTE JUST N AND W OF BOS? ALSO NOTICED A WSHIFT TO NNE AT IOS SUGGESTING INCREASING L;OW LVL CNV ALONG THE NH NE MASS COAST TONTG TO FAVOR THE ONGOING FCST OF NUMEROUS SNOW SHWRS DEVELOPING SHORTLY. OTRW BLO NO CHG FM 427AM. .TODAY...MERGED 00Z/18 GFS/NAM/UKMET/LOCAL OFFICE ETA10/SUSBMMN5 QPFS. GIVES 1-3" VCNTY GLOUCESTER-WELLFLEET AXIS. SCT .5" ELSEWHERE MASS AND RI IN LESS ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. CONFIDENCE AVG. WE SAW THE DRIER 06Z NAM AND THE 00Z BTV ETA WAS GENERALLY OFFSHORE AS WAS THE 06Z RUC. OTRW VAR CLOUDINESS TODAY WITH THE MOST SUNSHINE IN CT AND ETA MOS TEMPS. ALL THE ABV ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC COLD CORE AND MOIST UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTN...THIS SHOULD TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SW-. ADDITIONALLY...POSSIBLY A LITTLE OCEAN CONTRIBUTION WITH NNE BUOY FLOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING. .TONIGHT...HIGHLY UNSTABLE NNW FLOW FOR THE OUTER CAPE. SOME ACCUM LIKELY OUT THERE TONIGHT TOO. DAY SHIFT CAN ENHANCE AS EVIDENCE FOR FURTHER ACCUM DEVELOPS. .SATURDAY...DRY BUT COLD WITH LATE DAY WAA CLOUDINESS. MOS GUIDANCE REASONABLE. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... A REINFORCING SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS LOOKS GOOD AND THE GFS LIGHTS UP ITS 850 MB OMEGA TO OUR WEST WHICH IS OFTEN AN INDICATION. LOOKED UP THE WINDEX CRITERIA FOR SNOW SQUALLS AND THE CRITERIA IS MET. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY BECAUSE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRYER. SUNDAY SHOULD BE VERY COLD DAY DESPITE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -14 AND -18C...HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20S AND WILL GO WITH THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. SEEMS LIKE MANY TIMES THAT THE 2ND SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WE GET IS OFTEN A BIT COLDER THAN THE MODELS DEPICT. THINGS GET VERY INTERESTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ALL THE MODELS TRACK A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL INDUCE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ETA BEING THE SLOWEST AND THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST. PREFER THE COMPROMISE OF THE ECWMF/CANADIAN WHICH WOULD BRING SNOW INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. DESPITE THERE REALLY NOT BEING A STRONG STORM SYSTEM...BRINGING WARM AIR OVER AN ARCTIC DOME WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD SNOW. SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE DEEP LIFT FOR SNOW GROWTH LOOKS TO HAVE PASSED TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH SHALLOW LIFT AROUND THERE COULD BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...SLEET AND VERY LIGHT SNOW LEFT BEHIND. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY HAVE BECOME WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PLAIN DRIZZLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW WHEN THE DEEP LIFT IS IN PLACE. AS THE SURFACE LOW HEADS UP TO THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND A SECONDARY LOW WILL TAKE OVER LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THIS SECONDARY LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...ALL THE LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT IT DOES NOT WANT TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER UNTIL ITS WELL EAST OF US. HOWEVER... THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THINGS CAN CHANGE. FOR NOW...IT JUST LOOKS LIKE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE ON THE FRONT END (WARM ADVECTION SIDE) WHERE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL APPEARS LIKELY. OTHERWISE...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL PROBABLY BE TUESDAY AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE. A COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR SHOULD HOLD HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW WESTERLY WHICH WOULD TAKE THE STORM OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY. THAT IS 7 DAYS OUT THOUGH AND TOO EARLY TO SAY THAT FOR SURE. && .AVIATION... VFR BECOMING MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BAF-PVD-ACK LINE NEWD. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BOS/HYA/MHT. THEN BECOMING VFR DURING TONIGHT ALL EXCPT POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS HOLDING ACK/HYA DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT CLOUD CVR. && .MARINE... TODAY...SCA FOR 254 AND 255 PVC-ACK-MTK OUTER WATERS. TONIGHT...SCA LIKELY REQUIRED MOST OTHER WATERS EXCEPT NOT ENOUGH TIME FOR CRITIERA TO BE MET AT BOS HARB AND NARR BAY. IN THE LONGER TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE NEEDED BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...THEN WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE QUICKLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH STRONG SCA BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO THINK ABOUT A MARGINAL GALE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW FORMS OVER MID ATLANTIC AND TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALES TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E MA COASTAL WATERS WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER...BUT RIGHT NOW MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE WELL DEVELOPED AFTER IT PASSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254-255. && $$ NEAR TERM...CF SHORT TERM...EVT ma AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION..MESO UPDATE.. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 610 AM EST FRI FEB 18 2005 ...LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS TODAY WILL USHER IN VERY COLD AIR FOR THE WEEKEND AND SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... .MESO 1 609 AM...SNOW HAS DESCENDED TO THE SFC UNDER SOME OF THE RETURN WITH 21/2-3 MI AT BED ~ 6AM. NOWCAST CONTS POSTED AS IS. CONTD COOLING CLOUD LAYER MWN TO KBOX AXIS WITH ECHOS REDEVELOPING IN THAT AXIS. THIS COULD BE A PBLM FOR PART OF THE MORNING COMMUTE JUST N AND W OF BOS? ALSO NOTICED A WSHIFT TO NNE AT IOS SUGGESTING INCREASING L;OW LVL CNV ALONG THE NH NE MASS COAST TONTG TO FAVOR THE ONGOING FCST OF NUMEROUS SNOW SHWRS DEVELOPING SHORTLY. OTRW BLO NO CHG FM 427AM. .TODAY...MERGED 00Z/18 GFS/NAM/UKMET/LOCAL OFFICE ETA10/SUSBMMN5 QPFS. GIVES 1-3" VCNTY GLOUCESTER-WELLFLEET AXIS. SCT .5" ELSEWHERE MASS AND RI IN LESS ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. CONFIDENCE AVG. WE SAW THE DRIER 06Z NAM AND THE 00Z BTV ETA WAS GENERALLY OFFSHORE AS WAS THE 06Z RUC. OTRW VAR CLOUDINESS TODAY WITH THE MOST SUNSHINE IN CT AND ETA MOS TEMPS. ALL THE ABV ASSOCIATED WITH CYCLONIC COLD CORE AND MOIST UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTN...THIS SHOULD TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD SW-. ADDITIONALLY...POSSIBLY A LITTLE OCEAN CONTRIBUTION WITH NNE BUOY FLOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE THIS MORNING. .TONIGHT...HIGHLY UNSTABLE NNW FLOW FOR THE OUTER CAPE. SOME ACCUM LIKELY OUT THERE TONIGHT TOO. DAY SHIFT CAN ENHANCE AS EVIDENCE FOR FURTHER ACCUM DEVELOPS. .SATURDAY...DRY BUT COLD WITH LATE DAY WAA CLOUDINESS. MOS GUIDANCE REASONABLE. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... A REINFORCING SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT. THIS LOOKS GOOD AND THE GFS LIGHTS UP ITS 850 MB OMEGA TO OUR WEST WHICH IS OFTEN AN INDICATION. LOOKED UP THE WINDEX CRITERIA FOR SNOW SQUALLS AND THE CRITERIA IS MET. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY BECAUSE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRYER. SUNDAY SHOULD BE VERY COLD DAY DESPITE LOTS OF SUNSHINE. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -14 AND -18C...HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 20S AND WILL GO WITH THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE. SEEMS LIKE MANY TIMES THAT THE 2ND SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WE GET IS OFTEN A BIT COLDER THAN THE MODELS DEPICT. THINGS GET VERY INTERESTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ALL THE MODELS TRACK A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM UP TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL INDUCE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE ETA BEING THE SLOWEST AND THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST. PREFER THE COMPROMISE OF THE ECWMF/CANADIAN WHICH WOULD BRING SNOW INTO THE WESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. DESPITE THERE REALLY NOT BEING A STRONG STORM SYSTEM...BRINGING WARM AIR OVER AN ARCTIC DOME WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD SNOW. SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE DEEP LIFT FOR SNOW GROWTH LOOKS TO HAVE PASSED TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...WITH SHALLOW LIFT AROUND THERE COULD BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE...SLEET AND VERY LIGHT SNOW LEFT BEHIND. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY HAVE BECOME WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PLAIN DRIZZLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SNOW WHEN THE DEEP LIFT IS IN PLACE. AS THE SURFACE LOW HEADS UP TO THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND A SECONDARY LOW WILL TAKE OVER LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH THIS SECONDARY LOW TRACKS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...ALL THE LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT IT DOES NOT WANT TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER UNTIL ITS WELL EAST OF US. HOWEVER... THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THINGS CAN CHANGE. FOR NOW...IT JUST LOOKS LIKE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW...SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE MAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE ON THE FRONT END (WARM ADVECTION SIDE) WHERE ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL APPEARS LIKELY. OTHERWISE...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL PROBABLY BE TUESDAY AS THE STORM PULLS AWAY...AND NORTHWEST FLOW MAY ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND INTO THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE. A COLDER NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR SHOULD HOLD HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS KEEP OUR UPPER LEVEL FLOW WESTERLY WHICH WOULD TAKE THE STORM OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY. THAT IS 7 DAYS OUT THOUGH AND TOO EARLY TO SAY THAT FOR SURE. && .AVIATION... VFR BECOMING MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BAF-PVD-ACK LINE NEWD. BRIEF IFR CONDS IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BOS/HYA/MHT. THEN BECOMING VFR DURING TONIGHT ALL EXCPT POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS HOLDING ACK/HYA DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT CLOUD CVR. && .MARINE... TODAY...SCA FOR 254 AND 255 PVC-ACK-MTK OUTER WATERS. TONIGHT...SCA LIKELY REQUIRED MOST OTHER WATERS EXCEPT NOT ENOUGH TIME FOR CRITIERA TO BE MET AT BOS HARB AND NARR BAY. IN THE LONGER TERM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE NEEDED BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING...THEN WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE QUICKLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH STRONG SCA BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO THINK ABOUT A MARGINAL GALE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW FORMS OVER MID ATLANTIC AND TRACKS SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALES TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE E MA COASTAL WATERS WHERE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER...BUT RIGHT NOW MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE WELL DEVELOPED AFTER IT PASSES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ235-237 254-255 TODAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...DRAG LONG TERM...FRANK ma AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1045 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2005 .UPDATE... MAIN FCST CONCERNS OVERNIGHT ARE LES TRENDS. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK CLIPPER SHRTWV HAD SLIPPED SE INTO NRN LWR MI. TRAILING AREA OF 280K ISENTROPIC LIFT SUPPORTED AN AREA OF -SN OVER N AND CNTRL WI. AT THE SFC...A TROF MOVING FROM WRN LK SUPERIOR INTO W UPR MI. 950 CONV ALONG WITH TEMPS TO AROUND -20C AROUND H8 INVERSION...PER 23Z TAMDAR SNDG...ALONG WITH MOIST 850-700 LYR PROVIDED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LES INTO THE KEWEENAW. SO FAR...ONLY INTERMITTENT HEAVIER SHSN WERE OBSERVED BUT KCMX WINDS HAVE ALSO REMAINED SW. IR IMAGERY STILL SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER LES BANDS TO MOVE ONSHORE. EXPECT OCNLY HEAVY SHSN TO CONTINUE OVER NW UPR MI TIL WINDS VEER NW FROM 06Z-09Z AND BEST 950 CONV SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS TO 320-300 LATE SHOULD ALSO BRING AT A FEW INCHES TO ONTONAGON...SRN HOUGHTON AND PORTION OF GOGEBIC COUNTY NEAR THE PORCUPINE MTS. LES SHOULD DIMINISH LATE WITH INCREASING QDIV/SUBSIDENCE...850-700 DRYING AND TRANSITION TO SHORTER FETCH. SO...LES ADVY LEFT INTACT FOR ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT. VEERING WINDS TO NW WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH LES INTO NE UPR MI...MAINLY BTWN 09Z-12Z. GIVEN LATER ONSET...GOING FCST OF 1-2 INCHES LOOKS ON TRACK. OTHERWISE...PATCH -SN/FLURRIES...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH WILL ALSO DIMINISH...PER ETA 280K PROG. && JLB .PREV DISCUSSION...FOR LATER PERIODS ISSUED 350 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2005 LINGERED SNOW SHOWERS LONGER FOR SAT IN W ZONES WITH LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE PROGGED TO EASE ONLY AFTER 15Z. LIMITING FACTORS MENTIONED EARLIER WILL ONLY BE INCREASING BY THIS TIME AND WILL KEEP ACCUMS TO AROUND AN INCH. FLOW BECOMING SE LATER SAT AFTN INTO SAT NIGHT WILL PUSH LK EFFECT OFFSHORE BY LATE SAT EVENING. KEPT LOW TEMPS BLO ZERO FOR INTERIOR SAT NIGHT WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD. EXPECT ONLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS FM APPROACHING TROUGH TO SPILL INTO SW ZONES VERY LATE. SUN INTO MON...STILL VARYING SOLNS FOR COMBO OF S BRANCH/N BRANCH SHORTWAVES TO AFFECT REGION. NOW APPEARS THAT MODELS COMING INTO AGREEMENT THAT BRANCHES WILL REMAIN UNPHASED AS TROUGHS CROSS AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SFC LOW TO GENERALLY MOVE W TO E FM CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY INTO N FRINGES OF OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LOW TRACKS VARY FM FARTHER N GFS/CANADIAN TO THE S ETA/NAM...UKMET...AND ECMWF. AS IT LOOKED LIKE A COUPLE DAYS AGO...THIS SOLN MAKES SENSE AS HIGH PRES RIDGE HOLDS OVR GREAT LAKES AS LATE AS SUN AND PERSISTENT SE WINDS WILL ADVECT DRIER AIRMASS INTO OUR CWA AHEAD OF THE LOW/INVERTED TROUGH. UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME FRAME SO MADE FEW CHANGES WITH GOING CHANCE OF SNOW FOR ALL CWA. POTENTIAL LATER CHANGES WOULD BE DELAYING ONSET OF LGT SNOW FOR SUN MORNING IF DRIER AIR HOLDS LONGER (AS SHOWN BY ETA/NAM)...AND SCALING BACK POPS FOR N HALF OF CWA. EDGE OF SNOW LOOKS PRETTY CERTAIN TO AT LEAST AFFECT THE FAR S...SO WENT WITH LIKELY POPS FOR S HALF OF MENOMINEE COUNTY SUN PM INTO SUN NIGHT. EXTENDED (TUE THROUGH FRI)...LITTLE CHANGE IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FM YDY SOLNS. LOW PRES TROUGH PASSES OVR UPR LAKES EARLY IN THE WEEK AND USHERS IN BRIEF COOL SHOT (H85 TEMPS AROUND -14C) FOR TUE/WED. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN LATER WED THROUGH FRI DUE TO UPR CONFLUENCE BTWN DEPARTING N BRANCH AND S BRANCH TROUGH EMERGING FM SW CONUS. WARM AIR ADVECTION DEPICTED OVR UPR PLAINS AND POSSIBLY INTO UPR LAKES TOWARD END OF WEEK. OVERALL...OTHER THAN THE LIGHT WNW FLOW LK EFFECT REGIME THROUGH WED THEME OF EXTENDED IS TRANQUIL WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS. COORD WITH APX. && MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT MIZ001-003. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR. && $$ JLA(PREV DISC) mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1107 AM EST FRI FEB 18 2005 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW OVER THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS LONGWAVE IS OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. A RIDGE RUNS ALONG THE WESTERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND A LOW IS DIGGING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A RIDGE OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BLANKETING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A LOW IS OVER SOUTHEAST MANITOBA DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE MINNESOTA SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WEAKEN AS THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT DRAPES THROUGH SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE 850MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -16C OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO -19C OVER THE EAST. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL SUPPORT PRODUCTION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTH TODAY THE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL MOVE THE LES HEAVIEST SNOWFALL OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. STILL AREAS LIKE THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES MAY SEE A SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KMQT-88D STILL SHOWING SOME MINOR BANDS OVER ALGER COUNTY AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER THE THE NORTHERN U.P. AND CLEAR OVER THE SOUTH. THE WILL CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING OVER THOSE AREA. MAY NEED TO ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE ACCORDINGLY. && MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR ALL OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MIZ006-007-085. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FRI NIGHT MIZ001-003. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 227 PM PST FRI FEB 18 2005 .SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DISTURBANCES EJECTING FROM THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...WITH SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A PATTERN CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK MAY FINALLY ALLOW THE AREA TO DRY OUT. && .SHORT TERM...ONE WAVE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EXITING THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AT THIS TIME WITH HEAVIER RAINS STILL OVER LAKE MEAD. THIS WAVE WAS HANDLED VERY WELL BY THE MODELS. AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP WITH ISOLATED THUNDER WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY BORDER WITH KERN AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES AND WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. THIS PRECIP WAS NOT MODELED SO WELL. THESE TWO AREAS SHOULD COMPRISE ONE OF TWO MAIN WAVES OF PRECIP TO AFFECT THE CWFA...WITH THE SECOND ONE COMING IN THE LONG TERM ON MONDAY/TUESDAY. BACK TO THE SHORT TERM...IN BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN WAVES WE REMAIN UNDER MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ZIPPING BY PERIODICALLY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SCENARIO WITH HIGH POPS BUT LOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED. BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST CWFA CLOSEST TO THE SHORTWAVE TRACK...AND LESSER CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER WHERE THE NAM AND GFS BOTH HINT AT A DRY SLOT MOVING IN. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE ALSO ADDED AREAS OF FOG TO ALL ZONES DUE TO THE EXPECTED BREAK IN THE PRECIP WITH WET GROUND IN PLACE. THE HEAVY SNOW WARNINGS WERE A TOUGH DECISION. LOTS OF CALLS TO SPOTTERS SUGGEST THAT CRITERIA HAVE NOT BEEN MET ANYWHERE. HOWEVER...WITH SIGNIFICANT STRATIFORM PRECIP OVER CLARK COUNTY AND CONVECTIVE PRECIP OVER INYO COUNTY...DID NOT WANT TO CANCEL EITHER ONE EARLY. RUC AND 12-KM NAM OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL BE OVER IN BOTH AREAS AROUND 6 PM...SO DID NOT WANT TO EXTEND IT EITHER. COMPROMISE SOLUTION WAS TO LET IT GO UNTIL 6 PM...AND HOPE THAT EVENING CREW GETS SOME GOOD LAST MINUTE INFORMATION. && .LONG TERM...GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG TERM BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THE MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME. SCENARIO TO PLAY OUT IS THIS. ANOTHER WAVE / LOW MOVES SOUTHWEST OUT OVER THE CALIFORNIAN COAST SUNDAY/MONDAY AND SETS UP ANOTHER SOUTHWEST MOIST FLOW OVER THE REGION. IT LOOKS TO BE DIFLUENT AS WELL. WHEN THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MOST OF THE CWA WILL EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION IN SOME FORM. HAVE INCREASED POPS AS WELL FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MODELS AGREE WELL AND BRING IN ABUNDANT MOISTURE. AFTER TUESDAY THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND COLD AIR WILL MAKE FOR SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND DECREASED COVERAGE ON BACK SIDE OF LOW. && .AVIATION...A BAND OF RAIN CENTERED OVER THE COLORADO RIVER THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP THE RAIN OVER KLAS AND ASSOCIATED CIGS/VSBYS DOWN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR THE RAIN TO LET UP AROUND 02-03Z. CIGS SHOULD BE BACK ABOVE 5000 FEET BY 12Z IN THE MORNING. CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AS WELL WITH THE DAGGETT CORRIDOR BEING THE FIRST TO CLEAR. && .VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NV...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NVZ018 AND NVZ019 ABOVE 7000 FEET UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING. .AZ...NONE. .CA...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CAZ026 ABOVE 6500 FEET UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING. $$ MORGAN/JACQUES nv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV 326 AM PST FRI FEB 18 2005 .SHORT TERM... IMPRESSIVE LOOKING RAIN BAND MOVING UP THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS MORNING. A LOOK AT THE WATER VAPOR IMAGE EXPLAINS WHY...WITH A TIGHT VORT CENTER OFF OF POINT CONCEPTION AND A RUC ANALYZED 80-100 KT JET MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE RAIN BAND SHOULD MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE VORT MOVES NORTH AND THE JET STREAK MOVES INLAND OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. OUR ZONES ARE POSITIONED IN BETWEEN ALL THE ACTION TODAY...WITH STRONG JET FORCING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND DEFORMATION TO OUR NORTHWEST. STILL...WE ARE EXPECTING ENOUGH OF THE REMNANT RAIN BAND COMBINED WITH MODEST OROGRAPHICS OVER MONO COUNTY TO KEEP THE SNOW ADVISORY GOING...ALTHOUGH IT HAD TO BE PUSHED BACK FURTHER TODAY PER CURRENT PROGRESSION OF THE COASTAL/CENTRAL VALLEY RAIN BANDS. WITH UPPER TROUGHING REMAINING OFF THE COAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND WEAK TO MODEST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...IT WAS HARD TO PINPOINT TIMING DETAILS OF PRECIP. THEREFORE...THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PRECIP EACH PERIOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN OVER THE SIERRA...WITH CHANCE OR LIKELY POPS EACH PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BETTER OROGRAPHICS ARE PROGGED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF A POSITIVELY TILTED EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH. THIS MAY LEAD TO MORE SIGNIFICANT QPF FOR THE SIERRA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST GETS TRICKIER...AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. EXACTLY HOW FAR OFF THE COAST IT MOVES IS CRITICAL FOR PRECIPITATION. CURRENT PROGS ARE LEANING TOWARDS A FURTHER OFF COAST POSITION...WHICH WOULD DRAMATICALLY REDUCE REGIONAL PRECIP. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE POPS. SNYDER .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... GFS/EURO IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SPLIT FLOW PATTERN NEXT WEEK BUT DIFFER IN THE DETAILS. EURO A BIT FASTER TO EJECT THE UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND...AND GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH. WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY TRIM EACH DAY WITH ALL AREAS DRY BY THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL BE WARMING MAX TEMPS NEAR THE OREGON BORDER WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED THERE. OVERALL...VERY FEW CHANGES TO PREV FORECAST GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. WALLMANN && .REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NV...NONE. .CA...SNOW ADVISORY 10 AM THRU 10 PM FRIDAY CAZ073. && $$ nv AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1211 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... WL UPDATE ZONES TO REMOVE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINE FROM THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY... THOUGH A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WL STILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ONLY A FEW TWEAKS MADE TO THE GRIDS. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 1018 AM EST FRI FEB 18 2005) SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... SHORTWAVE WITH CHANNELLED VORTICITY EMBEDDED IN GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT JUST UPSTREAM OF OUR CWFA. THIS FEATURE IS PROGD TO STAY NORTH OF US...BUT PROGRESS SLOWLY...EXTENDING SUBSIDENCE PERIOD. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT WIND FIELDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS PROJECTED IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. CWFA SEEMS TO BE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE CORE OF STRONGEST 85H WINDS... WITH BOTH RNK AND GSO SOUNDINGS INDICATING WINDS OF 50 KTS OR GREATER FROM AROUND 85H INTO THE MID LEVELS. COLD ADVECTION LOOKS TO CONTINUE ALSO...STRONGER IN THE NORTH...BUT WEAKENING FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WITHIN OUR TWO WIND ADVISORY AREAS SHOW THAT HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS HAVE OCCURRED SINCE 4 AM; BEECH MOUNTAIN REPORTED A GUST TO 43 MPH WHILE NEWLAND GUSTED TO 36 SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM. FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WINDS HAVE NOT YET RESPONDED AS ANTICIPATED...AND WE ENTERTAINED SERIOUS THOUGHT OF CANCELLING IT. BUT AS MIXING GETS UNDERWAY HERE IN THE NEXT LITTLE WHILE... WINDS SHOULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THERE...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. 12KM ETA AND 09Z RUC BOTH SHOW SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL PLAN TO KEEP BOTH WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...AND WILL ALSO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN COUNTIES NOT CURRENTLY WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY. OUR FRESH WIND GRIDS SHOW THAT SOME HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY COULD STILL GUST INTO ADVISORY RANGE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA EXPIRES AT NOON. WE WILL LOOK AT WIND SPEED TRENDS TOWARD EXPIRATION TIME OF THE CURRENT FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ADVISORY TO SEE IF IT NEEDS TEMPORAL EXTENSION. IF WE DO GO AHEAD AND LET IT EXPIRE AT MIDDAY...IT WILL BE REPLACED WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE NO PLANS TO CANCEL THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN WIND ADVISORY BEFORE ISSUING THE 4 PM PACKAGE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR CWFA. A GENEARL DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOCATIONS IN THE LEE OF THE APPALCHIANS CLEAR TODAY UNLESS MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ATTENDANT WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FROM TIME TO TIME. FUL SUN COULD HELP NEGATE THE COLD ADVECTION AFFECTING THE REGION LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. WE WILL LOWER SOME OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA BUT MAINTAIN MID 50S THERE FOR HIGHS PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME. WILL PLAN TO LOWER MAXES ACROSS ALL OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MAY NOT ESCAPE THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 325 AM EST FRI FEB 18 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... PLAN ON LEAVING INHERITED WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NC MTNS AS IS BASED ON 08Z NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AWOS MTRS AND EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF CAA/SOME PRESSURE RISES THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY TAME ACRS THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ATTM...BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS AND DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AFTER SUNRISE... STILL COULD SEE ADVISORY CONDS BEFORE CAA ABATES...NW FLOW JET DECREASES AND PRES GRADIENT LOOSENS BY MIDDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...DEEPENING MIXED LAYER INTO THE AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS. SFC RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE CWFA TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE COAST ON SATURDAY. DEEPER WAA RH PROGGED TO SPREAD INTO THE NC MTNS BY 00Z SUN...WITH BOTH THE GFS/NAM TRENDING QUICKER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. WILL STILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY...BUT WILL BEEF UP TREND TOWARD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS BY DAY'S END. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... LOOKS LIKE LOBE OF WAA LIGHT PCPN WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA SATURDAY EVENING WHILE DEEPER RH CLOSES IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WILL RAMP UP POPS HIGHER THIS PERIOD...INCREASING TO CHANCE FOR THE NC MTNS AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. MODEL PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES STILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINTRY MIX SUNDAY MORNING...BUT QUICKER ENCROACHMENT OF RH DOES NOT ALLOW MINS TO GET AS COLD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A RISE OF 2-5 DEG F AT KAVL AS PER LATEST MAV/MET FROM PREVIOUS RUN. SLUG OF DEEPER RH AND LIFT STILL PROGGED FOR SUNDAY WITH LIKELY POPS BY AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS. AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE A BIT OF A PROBLEM AS LEE TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WILL BE SOME GUSTS DURING THE DAY OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...BUT DIRECTIONS WILL BE DIRECTLY RELATED TO LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF LEE TROF. HAVE GONE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY FOR DIRECTIONS. ONCE THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN EARLY THIS MORNING WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AT KAVL. HAVE GUSTS BEGINNING BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT BEST WINDS WILL BE AFTER MIXING BEGINS BY MID MORNING. FIRE WEATHER... COULD SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15-20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...IN COMBINATION WITH WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. COORDINATION WITH LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES WAS HELD ON THURSDAY AND IT WAS DETERMINED THAT FUEL MOISTURES WERE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY RED FLAG ISSUANCE. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-049-050 FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY. ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065 FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...BPM sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1018 AM EST FRI FEB 18 2005 .SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)... SHORTWAVE WITH CHANNELLED VORTICITY EMBEDDED IN GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT JUST UPSTREAM OF OUR CWFA. THIS FEATURE IS PROGD TO STAY NORTH OF US...BUT PROGRESS SLOWLY...EXTENDING SUBSIDENCE PERIOD. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT WIND FIELDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS PROJECTED IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS. CWFA SEEMS TO BE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE CORE OF STRONGEST 85H WINDS... WITH BOTH RNK AND GSO SOUNDINGS INDICATING WINDS OF 50 KTS OR GREATER FROM AROUND 85H INTO THE MID LEVELS. COLD ADVECTION LOOKS TO CONTINUE ALSO...STRONGER IN THE NORTH...BUT WEAKENING FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WITHIN OUR TWO WIND ADVISORY AREAS SHOW THAT HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS HAVE OCCURRED SINCE 4 AM; BEECH MOUNTAIN REPORTED A GUST TO 43 MPH WHILE NEWLAND GUSTED TO 36 SHORTLY AFTER 9 AM. FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WINDS HAVE NOT YET RESPONDED AS ANTICIPATED...AND WE ENTERTAINED SERIOUS THOUGHT OF CANCELLING IT. BUT AS MIXING GETS UNDERWAY HERE IN THE NEXT LITTLE WHILE... WINDS SHOULD APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THERE...ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. 12KM ETA AND 09Z RUC BOTH SHOW SUPPORT FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL PLAN TO KEEP BOTH WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED...AND WILL ALSO KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN COUNTIES NOT CURRENTLY WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY. OUR FRESH WIND GRIDS SHOW THAT SOME HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS WITHIN THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY COULD STILL GUST INTO ADVISORY RANGE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA EXPIRES AT NOON. WE WILL LOOK AT WIND SPEED TRENDS TOWARD EXPIRATION TIME OF THE CURRENT FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ADVISORY TO SEE IF IT NEEDS TEMPORAL EXTENSION. IF WE DO GO AHEAD AND LET IT EXPIRE AT MIDDAY...IT WILL BE REPLACED WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR AREA LAKES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE NO PLANS TO CANCEL THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN WIND ADVISORY BEFORE ISSUING THE 4 PM PACKAGE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER OUR CWFA. A GENEARL DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOCATIONS IN THE LEE OF THE APPALCHIANS CLEAR TODAY UNLESS MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ATTENDANT WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER FROM TIME TO TIME. FUL SUN COULD HELP NEGATE THE COLD ADVECTION AFFECTING THE REGION LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. WE WILL LOWER SOME OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA BUT MAINTAIN MID 50S THERE FOR HIGHS PER LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME. WILL PLAN TO LOWER MAXES ACROSS ALL OF THE NORTH CAROLINA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MAY NOT ESCAPE THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 325 AM EST FRI FEB 18 2005) SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... PLAN ON LEAVING INHERITED WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NC MTNS AS IS BASED ON 08Z NORTHERN MOUNTAIN AWOS MTRS AND EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF CAA/SOME PRESSURE RISES THROUGH MID-MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY TAME ACRS THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY ATTM...BUT WITH AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS AND DEEPENING MIXED LAYER AFTER SUNRISE... STILL COULD SEE ADVISORY CONDS BEFORE CAA ABATES...NW FLOW JET DECREASES AND PRES GRADIENT LOOSENS BY MIDDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...DEEPENING MIXED LAYER INTO THE AFTERNOON COULD RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS. SFC RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE CWFA TONIGHT AND MOVE TO THE COAST ON SATURDAY. DEEPER WAA RH PROGGED TO SPREAD INTO THE NC MTNS BY 00Z SUN...WITH BOTH THE GFS/NAM TRENDING QUICKER WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN. WILL STILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY...BUT WILL BEEF UP TREND TOWARD MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDS BY DAY'S END. LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... LOOKS LIKE LOBE OF WAA LIGHT PCPN WILL LIFT NORTH ACRS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA SATURDAY EVENING WHILE DEEPER RH CLOSES IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. WILL RAMP UP POPS HIGHER THIS PERIOD...INCREASING TO CHANCE FOR THE NC MTNS AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. MODEL PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES STILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINTRY MIX SUNDAY MORNING...BUT QUICKER ENCROACHMENT OF RH DOES NOT ALLOW MINS TO GET AS COLD SUNDAY MORNING WITH A RISE OF 2-5 DEG F AT KAVL AS PER LATEST MAV/MET FROM PREVIOUS RUN. SLUG OF DEEPER RH AND LIFT STILL PROGGED FOR SUNDAY WITH LIKELY POPS BY AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO LATER PERIODS. AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE A BIT OF A PROBLEM AS LEE TROF REMAINS OVER THE AREA. WILL BE SOME GUSTS DURING THE DAY OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...BUT DIRECTIONS WILL BE DIRECTLY RELATED TO LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF LEE TROF. HAVE GONE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY FOR DIRECTIONS. ONCE THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION KICKS IN EARLY THIS MORNING WINDS SHOULD PICK UP AT KAVL. HAVE GUSTS BEGINNING BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT BEST WINDS WILL BE AFTER MIXING BEGINS BY MID MORNING. FIRE WEATHER... COULD SEE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 15-20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...IN COMBINATION WITH WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. COORDINATION WITH LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES WAS HELD ON THURSDAY AND IT WAS DETERMINED THAT FUEL MOISTURES WERE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY RED FLAG ISSUANCE. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ048-053-065 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO NOON FRIDAY. ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ048-053-065 FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY. ...WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033-049-050 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY. ...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM FRIDAY. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SAB sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 830 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2005 .UPDATE...SFC HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT KEEPING A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. SFC THETA-E GRADIENT AT 2Z RUNS FROM HBV TO ALI TO RKP WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND LOWER 50S WELL TO THE NORTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE EARLY TONIGHT...THEN EXPECT A RISE IN TEMPS TOWARD MORNING AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. CLOUD COVER ALONG THE COAST HAS THINNED OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT THINK THIS TREND IS TEMPORARY AS CRP/BRO SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 290-295K LAYER OVERNIGHT BUT AREA RADARS ARE QUIET AT THE PRESENT TIME. WILL LOWER POPS TO ISOLATED OUT WEST. ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WINDS/TEMPS NEEDED. && .AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS ARE PERSISTING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND SOUTHWEST TO LAREDO. BUT AFTER MVFR CEILINGS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL BEND SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z...STRATUS HAS ERODED. THE RUC/ETA MODEL SHOW SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE NORTHEAST. AFTER 06Z...BOTH THE ETA/RUC SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING BACK INTO THE COASTAL BEND. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS...THAT ARE PREVALENT OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS...WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL COASTAL BEND BY AROUND 04Z. A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. CEILINGS ARE LOWER NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS WITH IFR CONDITIONS REPORTED AT HBV ALONG WITH FOG REDUCING VSBY TO 2 1/2 SM. OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM LAREDO TO HBV EASTWARD TO NEAR ALI AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 91/DUNN...PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS 89/TMT...AVIATION tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1120 PM CST FRI FEB 18 2005 .UPDATE...WILL THROW A MENTION OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IN ZONES FOR TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT NOW PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN WHICH IS REACHING THE GROUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE. /91 && .AVIATION...MVFR CEILINGS ARE PERSISTING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BEND SOUTHWEST TO LAREDO. BUT AFTER MVFR CEILINGS MOVED INTO THE COASTAL BEND SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z...STRATUS HAS ERODED. THE RUC/ETA MODEL SHOW SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE NORTHEAST. AFTER 06Z...BOTH THE ETA/RUC SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING BACK INTO THE COASTAL BEND. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS...THAT ARE PREVALENT OVER MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS...WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL COASTAL BEND BY AROUND 04Z. A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. CEILINGS ARE LOWER NEAR THIS TROUGH AXIS WITH IFR CONDITIONS REPORTED AT HBV ALONG WITH FOG REDUCING VSBY TO 2 1/2 SM. OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM LAREDO TO HBV EASTWARD TO NEAR ALI AFTER MIDNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 91/DUNN...PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS 89/TMT...AVIATION tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 910 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2005 A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN STORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN GA. JAX SOUNDING SHOWS VERY ATMOS CONDS WITH PWAT AT 0.30 INCHES AND NE FLOW AOB 4 KFT AND BECOMING NW AND W ALOFT. AFTER A COLD/FROSTY START WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO OCCASIONALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO NE AND E AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EWD INTO ATLC TONIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 EXPECTED WITH LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. MESO-ETA AND GFS SHOW SOME INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE ASHORE IN THE SE ZONES AND THEN SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER AL AND EXTREME WRN GA TO MOVE INTO THE NRN TIER OF COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS IN GRIDS. MARINE...WEAK SFC TROUGH ALONG THE COAST ALLOWING A SQUEEZE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SAUF1 REPORTING NNE 13KT...AND SIMILAR READING AT 41012. MAY TWEAK WINDS UPWARD FOR NEARSHORE WATERS BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TARGET. && .FIRE WEATHER...LATEST RH ANALYSES AND RUC SUPPORT RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF INLAND NE FL. THUS NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS POINT. && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 5 PM EST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...FLZ020...FLZ021...FLZ022...FLZ023... FLZ024...FLZ025...FLZ030...FLZ031...FLZ032...FLZ035...FLZ036... FLZ037...AND FLZ040. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$ ARS fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 1026 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2005 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/ETA SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER JAMES BAY...A WEAK RIDGE RUNS NORTH THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS...AND A LOW OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. WEAK SHORTWAVES SLIDING DOWN THE LEE OF THE RIDGE ARE OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO AND WEST CENTRAL MANITOBA. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE A LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN PLAINS. A 1031MB HIGH IS EXPANDING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RIDGE IS CAUSING WINDS TO WEAKEN AND DRIER...COLDER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IS AROUND -20C. ETA12 CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. VISIBLE SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SPEEDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH MUCH WEAKER BANDS OVER THE WESTERN LAKE. KMQT-88D IS TRACKING A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS ACROSS ALGER AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES. SURFACE REPORTS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE LAKE EFFECTS SNOW ARE LIGHT OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND MUCH HEAVIER EAST OF MARQUETTE. SOUNDING DATA SHOWING THE BASE OF THE LOWEST INVERSION IS AROUND 875MB. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL MIGRATE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. ETA12 SHOWING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN AS WELL AS WINDS BECOME FORE ANTI-CYCLONIC ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER MOVE INTO CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR. ETA12 270K ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS INDICATE A LOW LEVEL JET TO THE NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WITH A NEUTRAL LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT IS INCREASING TO 200MB. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY. THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL THE WEAKEN LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. && MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 457 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 .SHORT TERM... TODAY AND TONIGHT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FROM THE UPPER LOW CENTERED OFF THE NW CALIFORNIA COAST. THE BULK OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE NORTH OF OUR REGION BUT BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW A WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA LATER THIS EVENING. THIS MAY ENHANCE RAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN...LIGHT PCPN OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA WILL TRY TO MOVE EAST INTO OUR DRY AIRMASS. JAN 00Z SAT SOUNDING HAD A VERY DRY LAYER BETWEEN 600-900MB THAT WILL TAKE TODAY TO SATURATE. EL DORADO REPORTED LIGHT RAIN LAST HOUR AND THIS COULD MAKE IT INTO ASHLEY AND CHICOT COUNTIES BEFORE DRYING UP ...SO HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BACK INTO THAT AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE DELTA WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE ALABAMA. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST TODAY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY RETURN MOISTURE TO THE REGION. SFC DEW PTS IN THE 30S SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S IN THE SW BY THIS EVENING ALONG WITH PWS BACK TO ONE INCH. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND BEGIN TO TRACK EAST. AS IT DOES...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVER OUR WESTERN PARISHES AND COUNTIES BRINGING IN MUCH WARMER AND MOIST AIR. COMBINED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE LIKELY POPS SEEM JUSTIFIED IN THE NORTH ALONG HIGHWAY 82 TONIGHT. LOWER POPS STILL EXPECTED SOUTH. THE MODELS DO HINT AT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE WEST TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING BUT WL OPT TO LEAVE OUT MENTION OF THUNDER UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MADE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DID NOT WANT TO FLIP FLOP ON FORECAST...BUT MODELS SUGGEST BETTER RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THE GFS HAS THE BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA...WITH LOW LEVELS WINDS INCREASING ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE. INSTABILITY WAS NOT GREAT...BUT THERE WAS AN INCREASE IN THE MODEL CAPE VALUES. THE ETA AND UK NEVER REALLY BRING THE BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA...BUT THE UK DOES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF RAIN JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. DECIDED TO STICK WITH GFS AND SHIFT HIGHER POPS ABOUT 12 HOURS. STILL LOOKS THERE MAY BE A BREAK MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO CONTINUED TO TAPER RAIN CHANCES OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY SEEMS TO HANG AROUND I-20 AS THE MAIN LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. WARM MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...SO A GRADUAL INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 70S WAS STILL GOOD THROUGH MONDAY. .LONG TERM... THE BOUNDARY SEEMS TO STALL OVER THE AREA MONDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS THE BOUNDARY COMES BACK AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY...MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS SHOWS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE SE US AND FORCING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH. WENT AHEAD AND CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF TH FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS WERE OK. NOT REAL SURE ABOUT THE DEWPOINTS...MODELS SUGGEST COOLER DRY AIR BY MID WEEK. DECIDED TO KEEP CURRENT VALUES. GENERALLY NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS OF 10-15K THIS MORNING IN THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST THIS MORNING. AS RAIN SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 6-8K FT BY 00Z SUNDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 62 49 68 60 / 20 40 40 80 MERIDIAN 62 46 68 58 / 10 40 40 80 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...NONE. LA...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ 07/22 ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 918 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 .UPDATE...THE LATEST RUC IS THE ONLY OPERATIONAL MODEL THAT ACCURATELY INITIALIZED THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS JUST ENTERING THE COASTAL PLAINS. MESO-ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED WEDGE OF COOLER AIR OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THIS REGION THROUGH 00Z. ONLY CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS WILL BE TO LOWER SOME ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AND RAISE SOME OVER THE NORTHERN COAST. BAND OF RAIN/SHOWERS OVER THE EAST IS LOCATED IN A PERSISTENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE REGION WHICH WILL TREK NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL INDICATE HIGH-END CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE. ELSEWHERE JUST DRIZZLE IN AN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REGIME. FOG OVER THE WESTERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON IN FAVORABLE WEST FLANK OF THE WARM FRONT. && .MARINE...WILL KEEP WINDS JUST SHY OF SCEC OVER THE BAYS/NEARSHORE WATERS AND AT SCEC CRITERIA ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO SEAS. && .AVIATION...IFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW CEILINGS/FOG WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND MIDDAY AND TO VFR CRITERIA IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS TREND WILL BE MUCH SLOWER IN AREAS FROM LAREDO TO COTULLA. AREAS OF RAIN/SHOWERS FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO VICTORIA WILL OCASIONALLY SLOW THIS PROCESS AS WELL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ 85/SHORT-TERM tx AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 1205 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2005 ...UDPATED TO EXPAND RFW INTO SE GA WHERE RH WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S. A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN STORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE AREA...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN GA. JAX SOUNDING SHOWS VERY ATMOS CONDS WITH PWAT AT 0.30 INCHES AND NE FLOW AOB 4 KFT AND BECOMING NW AND W ALOFT. AFTER A COLD/FROSTY START WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S PRETTY MUCH AREA-WIDE...MOSTLY SUNNY TO OCCASIONALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO NE AND E AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EWD INTO ATLC TONIGHT. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 EXPECTED WITH LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. MESO-ETA AND GFS SHOW SOME INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE ASHORE IN THE SE ZONES AND THEN SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER AL AND EXTREME WRN GA TO MOVE INTO THE NRN TIER OF COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS IN GRIDS. MARINE...WEAK SFC TROUGH ALONG THE COAST ALLOWING A SQUEEZE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH SAUF1 REPORTING NNE 13KT...AND SIMILAR READING AT 41012. MAY TWEAK WINDS UPWARD FOR NEARSHORE WATERS BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TARGET. && .FIRE WEATHER...LATEST RH ANALYSES AND RUC SUPPORT RED FLAG WARNING FOR MOST OF INLAND NE FL. && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...FLZ020...FLZ021...FLZ022...FLZ023... FLZ024...FLZ025...FLZ030...FLZ031...FLZ032...FLZ035...FLZ036... FLZ037...AND FLZ040. GA...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GAZ132...GAZ133...GAZ134...GAZ135...GAZ136...GAZ149... GAZ150...GAZ151 ...GAZ152...GAZ162...GAZ163...AND GAZ164. AM...NONE. && $$ ARS fl AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 300 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... SURFACE BASED CONVECTION DOESN'T LOOK LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A NUMBER OF REASONS. THERE IS NO APPARENT UPPER WAVE THAT WOULD HELP COOL THE COLUMN AS RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS 500MB TEMPS STILL AROUND -16C. THE COOLING WILL NOT COME UNTIL OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE IS GOOD CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE, THERE IS NO DEEP LAYER CONVERGENCE CO-LOCATED WITH IT. WITH CIN'S ON THE ORDER OF 100J/KG, LOOKS LIKE THERMODYNAMICS CAN'T DO IT ALONE TODAY, AND THAT'S WHAT YOU'D EXPECT FOR FEBRUARY IN THIS AREA OF THE COUNTRY. IF ANYTHING, AN ISOLATED STORM IS POSSIBLE AFTER DARK ACROSS THE EAST AS WEAK 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION PICKS UP AFTER 00Z BUT SHIFTS QUICKLY EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO. AM NOT CONFIDENT ENUF TO GO 20 POPS HOWEVER. SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS KS OVERNIGHT AS WEAKENING UPPER WAVE IN THE SW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH WINDS STAYING UP TONIGHT, TEMPS WILL PROBABLY NOT DROP OFF MUCH SO HAVE RAISED LOWS SLIGHTLY. LOOKS LIKE A MILD DAY IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AS WINDS SWITCH TO MORE OF A WEST TO NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE. WITH MILD 850MB TEMPS AROUND 10C, TEMPS SHOULD GET WELL INTO THE 60S OVER MOST OF WESTERN KS. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN SOME UP NORTH WITH 850MB COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON. A GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME FOR PRESIDENT'S DAY. HOWEVER, 850MB TEMPS REMAIN FAIRLY MILD AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN SO HAVE RAISED HIGHS A CATEGORY OR SO FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INTO THE 50S. DAYS 3-7... THE MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE EXTENDED IS IF ANY CHANGES ARE WARRANTED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. SEE THE SHORT WAVES WHICH ARE EJECTED FROM CALIFORNIA UPPER LOW, ONE EVERY 36 HOURS OR SO. JUST PIECES OF ENERGY SEEM TO PEEL OFF AND FLOW EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE CAN BE A LITTLE TRICKY AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SEEM TO WARM THE LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE UP NICELY, BEFORE COLDER AIR IS RUSHED IN ON NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND FROPA. CHANGE THE PRECIP TYPE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO JUST RAIN, THEN TRANSITIONED TO R-/ZR-/S- TUESDAY NIGHT, STAYING WITH 30 POPS. AT THIS POINT, IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO NOT GO HIGHER THAN 20-30 POPS, AS THE UPPER SYSTEMS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY PROGRESS EAST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 44 65 34 53 / 10 0 0 0 GCK 39 64 32 54 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 40 65 34 60 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 43 67 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 41 62 30 51 / 10 0 0 0 P28 47 68 37 55 / 10 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .KS...NONE. && $$ LACY/TSB ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 455 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2005 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERNS ARE SNOW TRENDS/AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED SPLIT FLOW ACRS NOAM WITH NW NRN STREAM FLOW THROUGH THE UPPER GRT LAKES. ONE SIGNIFICANT SRN STREAM SHRTWV WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS. NRN STREAM ENERGY WAS EMERGING FROM CLOSED LOW OVER SRN BC. AT THE SFC...A RDG EXTENDED FROM LK WINNIPEG THROUGH WRN LK SUPERIOR AND N WI TOWARD THE OH VALLEY. REMAINING LES BANDS HAVE WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE ERN LAKE...PER KMQT RADAR LOOP...WITH MAINLY JUST SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES. OVER THE WEST LES HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED WITH ONLY SOME SCT LAKE CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES. VIS/IR LOOPS SHOWED WAA CLOUDS INTO THE SW HLF OF WI AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING HIGH PLAINS TROUGH. RADARS/OBS INDICATED LEADING EDGE OF PCPN HAD SPREAD INTO SRN MN AND NW IA. OTHERWISE...VERY DRY AIR PREVAILED ACRS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS FROM AROUND -10F N OF LK SUPERIOR TO NEAR 0F OVER MOST OF UPR MI. TONIGHT...AS THE RDG AXIS SLIDES EAST AND WINDS BECOME VARIABLE TOWARD 06Z AND OFFSHORE WITH WEAK LAND BREEZE... ANY LINGERING -SHSN SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. OTHERWISE...ETA 700-500 RH SUGGESTS CLOUDS FROM WI SHOULD SPREAD ACRS UPR MI BTWN 03Z-09Z. ALTHOUGH ETA/GFS QPF SUGGEST -SN SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE SW NEAR 12Z...MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS (EXCEPT KIWD VCNTY) AS DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD SLOW ONSET OF -SN AT THE SFC. SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...ALTHOUGH MDLS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN NOT PHASING NRN/SRN STREAM ENERGY AND OFFER SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SFC LOW TRACKS (ETA FARTHER S)...SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF AN INVERTED TROF...AIDED BY DIV FROM H3 JET RIGHT ENTRANCE... WILL SUPPORT BROAD AREA OF -SN INTO THE WRN LAKES. DECENT MOISTURE ON 25-35 KT DEEP LYR 280-295K WILL BRING -SN ACRS UPR MI SUNDAY. WITH RELATIVELY MODEST DYNAMICS AND MORE PROMINENT H8 FRONT TO THE SOUTH...LEANED TOWARD MORE CONSERVATIVE 12Z GFS QPF WITH AMOUNTS TO AROUND 0.25 INCH OVER THE SOUTH. THE 18Z ETA HAS ALSO TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION. ALSO EXPECT THAT SFC DRY ACYC SE FLOW MAY REDUCE PCPN AMOUNTS MORE THAN MDLS SUGGEST. SNOW/WATER RATIO IN THE 10/1 TO 15/1 RANGE(PER ROEBBER GUIDANCE) WOULD GIVE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO 3-4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTH WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SO...ADVY POSTED FOR MUCH OF SRN TIER THROUGH SUN EVENING. EXPECT SN TO THEN TAPER OFF BTWN 03Z-06Z FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SFC-H8 TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO STRONG 850-500 QVECTOR CONV WITH THE NRN STREAM SHRTWV WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF -SN GOING. MON...STRONG QDIV TAKES OVER BEHIND THE SHRTWV. MOIST CYCLONIC NRLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROF WITH H8 TEMPS TO AROUND -12C WILL BRING SOME SCT -SHSN/FLURRIES OVER MAINLY NRN UPR MI. MON NIGHT INTO TUE...ETA/GFS/UKMET SUGGEST A WEAK CLIPPER SHRTWV WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GRT LAKES. HOWEVER...DETAILS WITH LOW LVL WIND FIELDS INCREASES AS ETA DEPICTS MORE BACKING. WEAK SFC GRADIENT AND WIND FIELDS WITH LK INDUCED TROFFING DOMINATING LEADS ALSO REDUCES CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF LES CHANCES. SO...MAINTAINED GENERAL -SHSN ACRS THE NORTH. WED-SAT...NW FLOW DOMINATES THROUGH THE LAKES DOWNSTREAM OF REX BLOCK OVER WRN NOAM. -SN/FLURRIES WERE MENTIONED FOR WED NIGHT WITH WEAK CLIPPER SHRTWV FOLLOWED BY SOME LES EVEN THROUGH GFS/ECMWF H8 TEMPS ARE MARGINAL FOR LES INSTABILITY. NEXT -SN CHANCE FOR SAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBILIY OF ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER..PER 00Z-12Z GFS. && MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SNOW ADVISORY MIZ010>013 6 AM EST TO 10 PM SUNDAY. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING LAKE SUPERIOR. && $$ JLB mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 330 PM EST SAT FEB 19 2005 .SHORT TERM... DISORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES NOTED. WITH A LACK OF A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE...TOUGH TO GAUGE EXACTLY WHERE THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE CENTRALS PLAINS TONIGHT. HISTORICALLY...MODELS TEND TO BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. A MORE WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE OVER THE MIDWEST TOMORROW. EQUALLY IMPORTANT FOR US IS THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHICH WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES TONIGHT. THIS HIGH HAS/WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE FRONT TO SINK SOUTH OF LOWER MICHIGAN...SETTING UP A GOOD OVERRUNNING SITUATION ON SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE PRESSURE IS HIGHER THAN FORECASTED BY 12Z ETA/GFS OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PROBLEMS BETWEEN THE MODELS SEEM TO LIE WITH THE CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA. HOW FAST DOES A PIECE OF ENERGY EJECT EASTWARD...AS UKMET/GFS AND ESPECIALLY 12Z CANADIAN INDICATING PHASING OCCURRING BY SUNDAY EVENING...WHICH TRANSLATES TO A STRONGER AND FARTHER NORTH SURFACE TRACK...AND THUS MORE WARM AIR. MEANWHILE...12Z ETA/NGM REMAIN FASTER AND WEAKER WITH THE INITIAL PSEUDO SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE...AS PHASING DOES NOT REALLY OCCUR. WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING...AS EASTERLY FLOW FROM ONTARIO WOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WITH A STRONG HIGH OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. IT SHOULD BE NOTED 12Z GFS RUN IS 3 MB WEAKER WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY 6Z MONDAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUN. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH A GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A BURST OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. UNFORTUNATELY...THE THERMAL PROFILES REMAIN IN QUESTION. BOTH GFS AND ETA INDICATING GREATER THAN A HALF AN INCH TO JUST UNDER ONE INCH OF QPF OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN (EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE THERE IS LESS). UNTIL I SEE A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY EJECT FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA...FAVOR A FARTHER SOUTH AND FLATTER INITIAL WAVE...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY 20KM RUC. EVEN WITH THE WARMER GFS SOLUTION...SHOULD BE A GOOD BURST OF SNOW BEFORE WE CHANGEOVER. GFS BUFKIT GUIDANCE AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST 4-7 INCHES. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND/OR ICING...WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. WILL GENERALLY BE MENTIONING 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH LESS AMOUNTS TOWARD OHIO BORDER. OBVIOUSLY...IF THE PRECIPITATION IS MOSTLY SNOW WE COULD BE ON THE HIGHER END...OTHERWISE WE WILL HAVE TO SETTLE FOR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH A CHANGEOVER TO ICE. GUIDANCE ISSUED BY HPC IS TO TAKE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN ETA/GFS. A QUICK GLANCE AT 18Z ETA SHOWS SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER. HOWEVER...A LITTLE CONCERNING IS THE LACK OF QPF FORECASTED. WILL NOT JUMP SHIP YET WITH PREVIOUS THINKING...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WATCH ENDED UP BEING TRANSITIONED TO A ADVISORY BY MIDNIGHT SHIFT. CAN'T RECALL TOO MANY TRUE OVERRUNNING EVENTS WHICH PRODUCE MORE THAN 6 INCHES. && .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MODELS DO AGREE ON SURFACE LOW PULLING AWAY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY...WITH TROUGH ALSO RETREATING EAST...BUT SUBSEQUENT RESUMPTION OF TROUGHINESS OR WEAK WAVE SETTLING DOWN INTO AREA FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT 500 MB...A VORTICITY LOBE SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING DURING THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME. MODEL SOUNDINGS...BOTH GFS AND NAM...SHOW MOISTURE ALOFT RAPIDLY PEELING AWAY BY MID DAY OF MONDAY...PROMISING THEN LITTLE IN WAY OF ICE NUCLEI AVAILABILITY. THUS WILL CONFINE MONDAY PRECIPITATION... CHANCE POPS AS BEFORE...JUST TO THE MORNING. SOME INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE AGAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS PER NAM/GFS...SO WILL INTRODUCE FLURRIES MENTION FOR THOSE PERIODS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE PRETTY GOOD THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. OMEGA FIELDS IN LOW TO MID LEVELS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY GENERALLY INDICATE WEAK SUBSIDENCE. SOME SLIGHT 850 TO 500 MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL DIFFERENTIAL PVA...WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME SLIGHT AT BEST. FOR REMAINDER OF EXTENDED PERIOD...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM FORECASTS OF PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN BY MID WEEK WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THEN INDICATING HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DGEX 1000 TO 500 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS...06Z RUN...DO NOT GENERALLY INDICATE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH 700 MB OMEGA LIFT AND MODEL QPF ALSO ABSENT. AT 500 MB...SERIES OF NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PIVOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME MODEL CONSENSUS TOWARD RIDGING BUILDING IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .AVIATION...ISSUED 1220 PM EST SAT FOR THE SHORT TERM AVIATION CONCERNS (THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT) MAIN CONCERN IS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND WINDS. STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IN WESTERLY FLOW AND 12 UTC DTX RAOB SHOWING A PRETTY DECENT MOIST LAYER FROM 3-5KFT. ENOUGH SUN IS COMING THROUGH (ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH) TO ALLOW A MINOR DIURNAL COMPONENT TO THE CLOUD COVER AND EXPECT BKN-SCT BASES AROUND 2.5KFT FOR A GOOD PART OF THE REMAINING DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A MORE SOLID LAYER ABOVE NEAR 4-5KFT. AS WE MIX OUT... SOUNDINGS DO OFFER SOME SUPPORT FOR WESTERLIES GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAFS AS WELL. BY THIS EVENING DIURNAL COMPONENTS TO THE WEATHER WILL TAKE A BACK SEAT TO APPROACHING SYSTEM OUT OF THE ROCKIES. WINDS THIS EVENING SHOULD DIE OFF QUICKLY AND LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS SHOULD THIN AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR WELL INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN DURING THAT TIME FRAME. PRETTY MUCH BUYING INTO THE NAM TIMING SCENARIO OF BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW AMD MVFR INTO ALL BUT MBS BY AROUND 16 UTC WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE OUT PERIOD AFTER 18 UTC. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 4 AM MONDAY FOR MIZ053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083. .LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO PORT HURON. .LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE. .MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE. && $$ SF/DWD mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 1115 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2005 .UPDATE... LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFTING ACRS WHILE SATELLITE INDICATE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKING E THRU W TX. NAM40 INDICATES WEAK INSTABILITY TO FOCUS ALONG/JUST E OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THIS PM WITH CAP OF 50J/KG TO OVERCOME. ACCORDING TO ELP/MAF SOUNDINGS AND RUC 7H-5H LR/S SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION MAINLY E AND S. OTHERWISE WINDS ACRS GDP MTNS ON THE WINDY SIDE WITH HIER ELEVATIONS GUSTING TO 50 TO 60 MPH. ACCORDING TO CROSS SECTIONS A WANING MTN WAVE COUPLET FAVORS A MARGINAL EVENT CONFINED TO FAVORED AREAS LIKE THE PASS AND EXPOSED RIDGES. FOR NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT GUSTY WINDS IN PRODUCTS WITH NO WARNING PLANNED ATTM FOR THIS PM. && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ tx