FXUS63 KSGF 101834
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
134 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

...WELL ADVERTISED ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS KNOCK KNOCK KNOCKIN ON 
OUR DOOR...

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE OBVIOUSLY CENTERED AROUND THE CONVECTION 
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL MO 
AND KS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. PW'S AROUND 2 INCHES WILL COMBINE WITH SLOW STORM MOVEMENT TO 
LEAD TO THE THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. GIVEN THE SLOW STORM 
MOVEMENT AND POTENTIAL OF CELL TRAINING WOULDN'T BE AT ALL 
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS END UP WITH MORE THAN 4 INCHES. 
WHILE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS MORNING AND LOWEST FFG ARE 
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES...THE POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF THE HEAVY 
RAINFALL JUSTIFIES A FLOOD WATCH ALL LOCATIONS.

18Z SOUNDING IN THROUGH 400 MB SHOWS AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH AN LI OF -11C. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CAP ON THE 
ORDER OF ABOUT 1 DEGREE CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULDN'T BE TOO DIFFICULT 
TO OVERCOME THIS AFTERNOON. WIND FIELDS NOT ALL THAT GREAT BUT WITH 
SUCH EXTREME INSTABILITY ORGANIZED MULTICELLS COULD CERTAINLY GO ON 
TO PRODUCE SOME GOOD (WELL BAD I GUESS) SIZED HAIL WITH DAMAGING 
WIND POTENTIAL INCREASING AS THE STORMS MORPH INTO LINE SEGMENTS 
THIS EVENING.

BEYOND THE SHORT TERM VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS. 
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MEANDERING FRONT IN AND ABOUT THE 
AREA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. POSSIBILITY OF A CUT OFF LOW 
FORMING NEAR THE END OF THE EXTENDED CERTAINLY COULD BE BAD NEWS IF 
WE ACTUALLY DE REACH OUR RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS.

ALL GRIDS ARE OUT.

THANKS FOR COORD LSX/TSA/ICT!

.SGF...
.MO...FLOOD WATCH WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT.
.KS...FLOOD WATCH WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$

IZZI