FXUS62 KRAH 161341
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
940 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2003

AIRMASS APPEARS TO STABILIZING ACROSS CENTRAL NC IN THE NEAR TERM 
FOR TODAY.  FLOW IS PREDOMINANTLY WEST NORTHWEST IN THE RAOB...VWPS 
...AND PROFILERS THIS MORNING.  SATURATION IN THE LOWEST LAYERS 
SHOULD MIX OUT DURING MIDDAY AND MORPH INTO FLAT SCT-BKN STRATO CU 
BENEATH SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LAYERS.  A FEW CIRRUS WILL ADD TO THE 
CLOUDINESS LATER TODAY...BUT WE SHOULD SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS 
AFTERNOON.  THICKNESS FROM THE GSO RAOB SUPPORTS PREVIOUS FORECAST 
MAX TEMPERATURES OF UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BUT CLOUD COVER MAY CUT 
TEMPERATURE RISE SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST.  WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE 
MOST OF THE DAY.

CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION AND THE SLIGHT 
THREAT WILL BE REMOVED FROM WORDED FORECASTS FOR TODAY.  HOWEVER... 
THE CHANCE WILL BE ELEVATED SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT GIVEN A FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH AND A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW ALOFT.  
MESO MODELS INCLUDING MM5 ARE FOCUSING RAIN IN THE SOUTHERN HALF 
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT.

.RAH...NONE.

RFG