AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO 837 PM MDT SUN APR 16 2006 .UPDATE... 00Z/17 NAM12 COMING IN THROUGH MON EVENING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/RUC MODEL UPPER AIR ANALYSES SHOWED THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NW/NRN CA. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MET ACROSS MUCH OF S CNTRL AND SERN CO MON LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING...AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CNTRL ROCKIES MON AFTN AND NGT. THE ONLY PLACE THAT MAY BE QUESTIONABLE WILL BE THE FAR SERN CO PLAINS. THE WIND/WIND GUSTS PART OF CRITERIA MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MEET. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 22- 26KTS...WHICH WOULD MEET THE WIND GUST PART OF THE RED FLAG CRITERIA. ACTUALLY...THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH THE WINDS JUST OFF THE GROUND IN SERN CO COMPARED TO THE NAM PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. LOOKING AT THE SFC OBS ACROSS AZ AND UT TODAY...THERE HAVE BEEN ALMOST WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 20-40KTS JUST AHEAD OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM. REACHING THE LOW HUMIDITY PART OF THE CRITERIA WILL BE NO PROBLEM IN THE WARNING AREA WITH VALUES OF 10 PERCENT OR LESS...JUST LIKE TODAY. HUMIDITY RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE POOR ALONG OUR ERN CO MOUNTAINS ERN SLOPES AND SERN CO PLAINS. TEMPERATURES DURING PEAK HEATING WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE READINGS FOR MIDDLE APRIL. THE HAINES STABILITY INDICE WILL BE 5 AND 6 ACROSS S CNTRL AND SERN CO...AND OF COURSE MUCH OF SRN CO IS IN A MODERATE-EXTREME DROUGHT. THE 1 HOUR TO 100 HOUR FUELS HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE CONTENT ALREADY AND ITS ONLY APRIL. FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR...OUR ERN CO MOUNTAINS...AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THE RED FLAG CONDITIONS TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE 11AM-9PM MDT. HOWEVER...THE FAR SERN CO PLAINS MIGHT BE MORE LIKE 3PM-9PM MDT FOR ALL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO COME TOGETHER. I WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT TIME FRAME OF 11AM-9PM MDT FOR ALL THE RED FLAG AREA DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY OF THE ACTUAL START TIME IN THE FAR SERN CO PLAINS. METZE && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 324 PM MDT SUN APR 16 2006) SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW) CURRENTLY...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS ON THE PLAINS HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...50S AND 60S MTN VALLEYS...AND 30S AND 40S MTNS. SAT PIX SHOWS YDAYS WIND STORM JUST TO THE W OF THE GREAT LAKES. OUR NEXT WX SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE W COAST. DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. DECIDED FOR NOW TO LEAVE THE FIRE WEATHER HILITE AS A WATCH FOR TOMORROW. I AM PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT FIRE WX WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...BUT I AM NOT TOO SURE ABOUT THE PLAINS. REASON FOR THIS IS THE LEE TROUGH IS FCST TO BE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE MORNING...AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. ATTM...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WINDS MAY NOT REACH FIRE WX WARNING CRITERIA OVER THE FAR E PLAINS AT ALL TOMORROW....WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF REACHING CRITERIA ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. IF THE SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE NOW IS A BIT SLOWER...THEN WIND CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET ON THE PLAINS AT ALL. SINCE WE HAVE 4 MORE GUIDANCE RUNS TO LOOK AT...LEFT WATCH AS IS AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS DECIDE TO UPGRADE OR REMOVE IT. OTHERWISE FOR TOMORROW...WILL LIKELY SEE A BIT MORE HI CLOUDS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THE POPS THAT WE HAD IN THE C MTNS FOR LATE TOMORROW REMAIN AS IS...BUT TWEAKED LOCATION/POP AMOUNTS JUST A BIT TO REFLECT LATEST GUIDANCE. OVERALL...ANOTHER NICE DAY TOMORROW. \/HODANISH LONG TERM... (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE EXTENT OF MOUNTAIN SNOWS AND SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS/PLAINS WINDS WITH SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NRN CO MON NIGHT/TUES... NAM12/GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...THOUGH GFS IS A TOUCH DEEPER AND FASTER WITH THE TROF WHICH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CO MONDAY NIGHT. AS TROF APPROACHES...SNOW SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY MONDAY EVENING...AND GET HEAVIER TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY SPREAD INTO THE NRN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF CWA...PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS NORTH OF WALSENBURG AFTER MIDNIGHT AS BORA COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE MAY STILL BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH TO SPREAD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT PLAINS AROUND MIDNIGHT AS FRONT MOVES ACROSS. SHOWERS MAY ALSO AID IN TRANSPORTING STRONGER MOMENTUM ALOFT TO THE SFC AS LOW LVLS REMAIN QUITE DRY INITIALLY. HOWEVER...NORTHERLY COLD FRONT QUICKLY ADVANCES SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALL OF THE SE PLAINS BY 12Z...WHICH CUTS OFF THE OPPORTUNITY FOR POTENTIAL HIGH WINDS BY EARLY MORNING. GIVEN THE BREVITY WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS. AIRMASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LOOKS MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY THAN RUNS I SAW YESTERDAY. MID SHIFT ALREADY LOWERED TUES MAXT GRIDS AND I CONTINUED THE TREND. OTHER CHANGES WERE TO INCREASE POPS FOR THE PIKES PEAK REGION. GFS/NAM12 STILL DIFFER WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WITH FAIRLY DEEP COLD AIR MOVING SOUTH...PALMER DVD REGION SHOULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING. EVEN AFTER TROF PASSAGE...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GET SOME SNOW DURING THE DAY AIDED BY NW OROGRAPHIC FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS MAY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO RANGES. SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION FOR BY TUES NIGHT AND WITH H7 TEMPS RANGING FROM -4 TO -7C...SHOULD BE THE COLDEST NIGHT ACROSS THE SE PLAINS IN A WHILE...WITH MANY AREAS DIPPING TO AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING. COOLED OFF MINT GRID SEVERAL DEGREES...AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO DROP THEM FURTHER. ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR WED THROUGH FRI WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HOLDS THE NEXT CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF CA THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING IT INLAND ON SUNDAY. GFS STILL OPENS UP THE GULF AND SPREADS LOW LVL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SE COLORADO BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. WILL KEEP THE SILENT POPS ACROSS THE EAST UNTIL SUN WHEN THE UPPER LOW MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ENHANCING LOW LVL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. -KT && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ221-COZ222- COZ224-COZ225-COZ226-COZ227-COZ228-COZ229-COZ230-COZ231-COZ232- COZ233-COZ234-COZ235-COZ236-COZ237. && $$ co AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1211 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2006 .DISCUSSION... ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER MAIN CONCERN. ALREADY SPINNING UP FOR TOR WATCH 193...SO WILL KEEP THIS SHORT. SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE AND UPPER H5 TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPC HAS INCREASED THE DAY ONE TOR GRAPHIC TO 15% IN RESPONSE TO SHEAR PROFILES AND DESTABILIZATION TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE C IL. RUC AND ETA 12 INDICATE STORMS ERUPTING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE EVENING. SEVERAL LINES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED...WITH ROTATING SUPERCELLS LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE STRONG TORNADOES. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE IS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PEORIA TO EFFINGHAM...ESPECIALLY IN THE SPRINGFIELD AND JACKSONVILLE AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSES INTO C IL BY 00Z... WE WILL SEE THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE BLOOMINGTON...CHAMPAIGN AND DANVILLE AREAS. THE SEVERE STORMS WILL LAST UNTIL 10 PM IN OUR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN THE LOW WILL BE INTO INDIANA...AND OUR AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY AND COOL AND ALL LEVELS. KEPT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN THE GRIDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR THE SEVERE THREAT FROM THE ILLINOIS RIVER AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR PRECIP TO MOVE SOUTH OF OUR CWA. THE TIMING APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAYS MODELS...AND I PULLED PRECIP FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND LOWERED THE CHANCES TUESDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THE PRE FRONTAL PRECIP WILL REACH OUR W CWA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM ON WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS THE FRONT SHEARS OUT AND SLOWS DOWN. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER TO OUR NW OVER THE SD/IA BORDER UNTIL THURSDAY...SO I KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS IN PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL LINGER IN THE CENTRAL EAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD IL. HOWEVER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PROVIDES ENOUGH DRY AIR IN ILLINOIS. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHIMON il AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 945 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 .UPDATE... TOR WATCH 195 WAS CANCELED AT 930 PM EDT. THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY SEVERE STORM IN FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT OVERALL RISK NOT ENOUGH TO HOLD ONTO THE WATCH. LARGE AREA OF WARM TOPPED CONVECTION COVERING THE SW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOL THUNDER AFFECTING NE THIRD OF SO OF THE AREA. RADAR TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN SHIELD OF PRECIP MAY HAVE REACHED ITS NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT. MAIN CONCERN NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL LIKELY BE HYDRO AS SEVERAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE ACROSS FAR SOUTH AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN AFFECTED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO WARM TOPPED CONVECTION CAN BE VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. IN TERMS OF POPS AND WX...PREVIOUS GRIDS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH CAT POPS SW HALF OR SO. HAVE WENT FOR A SCT WORDING IN NE AREAS WITH ONGOING PRECIP. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER NOW ROTATING ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS. POPS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN THE SOUTH...BUT FOR NOW WILL LET CURRENT GRIDS RIDE...ENDING PRECIP AT 2 AM. .AVIATION... A LINE OF STORMS WENT THROUGH SBN EARLIER...BUT THE RAIN/STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING TO REACH SBN AND FWA. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE HEADING TOWARDS SBN WITH SOME SCATTERED T-STORMS. TIMED THE RAIN AND STORMS AT FWA FOR A LITTLE BIT LATER WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. ON SATELLITE AND LIGHTENING OBSERVATIONS..CAN SEE A SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SOUTH AND EASTWARD. SO FORECASTING THE INDIANA/MICHIGAN BORDER TO BE ROUGHLY THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN/STORMS AND THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. A LITTLE BIT LATER TIMING FOR FWA WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING...BUT ROUGHLY AFTER MIDNIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE OVER AND CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. ACCORDING TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY TIME HEIGHTS...THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT FOR TOMORROW...SO LEFT THE SKC ALONE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 234 PM EDT) SHORT TERM... QUITE CONCERNED W/ONGOING DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IN ABSENCE OF CLD CVR DOWNSTREAM OF INTENSE CIRCULATION DRIFTING OUT OF IA. WARM FNT CONTS TO MIX RAPIDLY NWD IN RESPONSE TO INSOLATION AND STG WAA AHD OF SFC LOW OVR WRN IL. 12Z GUIDANCE NOT MUCH HELP W/PLACEMENT OF KEY SYNOPTIC FTRS W/ONGOING NOD GIVEN TO SHORT TERM RUC W/HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN BTR OVERALL. GIVEN BURGEONING DESTABILIZATION NOW EVIDENT ACRS WARM SECTOR AND STEEP EML IN PLACE ALOFT W/MODEST DEEP LYR SHEAR...SVR OUTBREAK W/DISCRETE TORNADO RISK LOOKING MORE LIKELY ACRS SWRN CWA (INDIANA COUNTIES) THIS EVENING...W/CONV CLUSTER OVR CNTRL IL GOING UPSCALE AND POSSIBLE ADDNL DVLPMNT EASTWARD OVR CNTRL/NRN INDIANA N OF WARM FNT. WILL MAKE NECESSARY CHGS TO PRIMARILY WX GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH GOING POPS LOOK IN LINE. LONG TERM... THE FORECAST FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY TIME FRAME IS CURRENTLY DRY...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE COULD BE TWO DIFFERENT TIMES THAT IT COULD PRECIPITATE. GFS AND THE GEM ARE BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS SHOWING A MORE DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH (WHICH IS ATTACHED TO A LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA) THAN PAST RUNS HAVE. THE DGEX IS ALSO BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN THROUGH...BUT IS ABOUT ONE TO TWO FORECAST PERIODS LATER WITH THE RAIN. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THAT THIS SHOT OF RAIN WILL BE WORKING AGAINST. SO WILL LEAVE DRY AT THE MOMENT. ABOUT THE ONLY OTHER TIME THERE MIGHT HAVE TO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHEN THAT SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH. ONE THING GOING TO MAKE ME KEEP THIS TIME FRAME ALSO DRY FOR THE TIME BEING IS THAT THE GFS OVER THE LAST TWO RUNS MOVED THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES CLOSER AND IS INTRODUCING QPF QUICKER NOW THAN PREVIOUSLY. GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER...AND AT 18Z FRIDAY FOR EXAMPLE...MOVES THIS UPPER LOW QUITE A HUGE DISTANCE. NOT GOING TO ADD IN RAIN YET WITH NO CONSISTENCY YET. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES EITHER...TEMPS STILL LOOKING ON TRACK. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...98 in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 741 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 .AVIATION... A LINE OF STORMS WENT THROUGH SBN EARLIER...BUT THE RAIN/STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING TO REACH SBN AND FWA. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE HEADING TOWARDS SBN WITH SOME SCATTERED T-STORMS. TIMED THE RAIN AND STORMS AT FWA FOR A LITTLE BIT LATER WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. ON SATELLITE AND LIGHTENING OBSERVATIONS..CAN SEE A SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SOUTH AND EASTWARD. SO FORECASTING THE INDIANA/MICHIGAN BORDER TO BE ROUGHLY THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN/STORMS AND THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. A LITTLE BIT LATER TIMING FOR FWA WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING...BUT ROUGHLY AFTER MIDNIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE OVER AND CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. ACCORDING TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY TIME HEIGHTS...THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT FOR TOMORROW...SO LEFT THE SKC ALONE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 234 PM EDT) SHORT TERM... QUITE CONCERNED W/ONGOING DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IN ABSENCE OF CLD CVR DOWNSTREAM OF INTENSE CIRCULATION DRIFTING OUT OF IA. WARM FNT CONTS TO MIX RAPIDLY NWD IN RESPONSE TO INSOLATION AND STG WAA AHD OF SFC LOW OVR WRN IL. 12Z GUIDANCE NOT MUCH HELP W/PLACEMENT OF KEY SYNOPTIC FTRS W/ONGOING NOD GIVEN TO SHORT TERM RUC W/HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN BTR OVERALL. GIVEN BURGEONING DESTABILIZATION NOW EVIDENT ACRS WARM SECTOR AND STEEP EML IN PLACE ALOFT W/MODEST DEEP LYR SHEAR...SVR OUTBREAK W/DISCRETE TORNADO RISK LOOKING MORE LIKELY ACRS SWRN CWA (INDIANA COUNTIES) THIS EVENING...W/CONV CLUSTER OVR CNTRL IL GOING UPSCALE AND POSSIBLE ADDNL DVLPMNT EASTWARD OVR CNTRL/NRN INDIANA N OF WARM FNT. WILL MAKE NECESSARY CHGS TO PRIMARILY WX GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH GOING POPS LOOK IN LINE. LONG TERM... THE FORECAST FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY TIME FRAME IS CURRENTLY DRY...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE COULD BE TWO DIFFERENT TIMES THAT IT COULD PRECIPITATE. GFS AND THE GEM ARE BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS SHOWING A MORE DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH (WHICH IS ATTACHED TO A LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA) THAN PAST RUNS HAVE. THE DGEX IS ALSO BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN THROUGH...BUT IS ABOUT ONE TO TWO FORECAST PERIODS LATER WITH THE RAIN. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THAT THIS SHOT OF RAIN WILL BE WORKING AGAINST. SO WILL LEAVE DRY AT THE MOMENT. ABOUT THE ONLY OTHER TIME THERE MIGHT HAVE TO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHEN THAT SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH. ONE THING GOING TO MAKE ME KEEP THIS TIME FRAME ALSO DRY FOR THE TIME BEING IS THAT THE GFS OVER THE LAST TWO RUNS MOVED THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES CLOSER AND IS INTRODUCING QPF QUICKER NOW THAN PREVIOUSLY. GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER...AND AT 18Z FRIDAY FOR EXAMPLE...MOVES THIS UPPER LOW QUITE A HUGE DISTANCE. NOT GOING TO ADD IN RAIN YET WITH NO CONSISTENCY YET. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES EITHER...TEMPS STILL LOOKING ON TRACK. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...98 in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 234 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 .SHORT TERM... QUITE CONCERNED W/ONGOING DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IN ABSENCE OF CLD CVR DOWNSTREAM OF INTENSE CIRCULATION DRIFTING OUT OF IA. WARM FNT CONTS TO MIX RAPIDLY NWD IN RESPONSE TO INSOLATION AND STG WAA AHD OF SFC LOW OVR WRN IL. 12Z GUIDANCE NOT MUCH HELP W/PLACEMENT OF KEY SYNOPTIC FTRS W/ONGOING NOD GIVEN TO SHRT TERM RUC W/HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN BTR OVERALL. GIVEN BURGEONING DESTABILIZATION NOW EVIDENT ACRS WARM SECTOR AND STEEP EML IN PLACE ALOFT W/MODEST DEEP LYR SHEAR...SVR OUTBREAK W/DISCRETE TORNADO RISK LOOKING MORE LIKELY ACRS SWRN CWA (INDIANA COUNTIES) THIS EVENING...W/CONV CLUSTER OVR CNTRL IL GOING UPSCALE AND POSSIBLE ADDNL DVLPMNT EASTWARD OVR CNTRL/NRN INDIANA N OF WARM FNT. WILL MAKE NECESSARY CHGS TO PRIMARILY WX GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH GOING POPS LOOK IN LINE. && .LONG TERM... THE FORECAST FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY TIME FRAME IS CURRENTLY DRY...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE COULD BE TWO DIFFERENT TIMES THAT IT COULD PRECIPITATE. GFS AND THE GEM ARE BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS SHOWING A MORE DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH (WHICH IS ATTACHED TO A LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA) THAN PAST RUNS HAVE. THE DGEX IS ALSO BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN THROUGH...BUT IS ABOUT ONE TO TWO FORECAST PERIODS LATER WITH THE RAIN. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THAT THIS SHOT OF RAIN WILL BE WORKING AGAINST. SO WILL LEAVE DRY AT THE MOMENT. ABOUT THE ONLY OTHER TIME THERE MIGHT HAVE TO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHEN THAT SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH. ONE THING GOING TO MAKE ME KEEP THIS TIME FRAME ALSO DRY FOR THE TIME BEING IS THAT THE GFS OVER THE LAST TWO RUNS MOVED THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES CLOSER AND IS INTRODUCING QPF QUICKER NOW THAN PREVIOUSLY. GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER...AND AT 18Z FRIDAY FOR EXAMPLE...MOVES THIS UPPER LOW QUITE A HUGE DISTANCE. NOT GOING TO ADD IN RAIN YET WITH NO CONSISTENCY YET. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES EITHER...TEMPS STILL LOOKING ON TRACK. && .AVIATION/UPDATE... ELEVATED CONV WANING THIS AFTN W/LL FOCUS SHIFTING BACK WWD INADV OF EJECTING STG MID LVL CIRC AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW OUT OF IA. LACK OF COHERENT CLD CVR DOWNSTREAM AND INSOLATION DRIVING STG DIURNAL HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACRS GROWING WARM SECTOR W/850MB WARM FNT CLEARLY DEFINED BOTH ON KIWX RADAR AND VIS SAT IMAGERY. SFC WARM FNT NOT FAR BEHIND AND ALREADY WELL NORTH INTO CNTRL IL/IN AND AHD OF 12Z MODEL EXPECTATIONS. THIS WILL BE FURTHER RECONCILED W/UPCOMING AFTN PACKAGE BUT SHORT AND NARROW SUGGESTS ENHANCED SVR THREAT TAKING SHAPE ACRS SW HALF CWA LT THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. AS FOR AVIATION...HAVE INTRODUCED CB MENTION AT SBN/FWA FOR THIS AFTN/EVE. STILL LOOKS LIKE VFR PENDING PLACEMENT OF LIKELY UPSCALE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION W/TEMPO MVFR POSSIBLE THEN. ALTHOUGH REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT TO MENTION. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION/UPDATE...HOLSTEN LONG TERM...LOTHAMER in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1108 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 .DISCUSSION... HAVE BACKED OFF ON WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE LEFT THE FORECAST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. REMOVED EVENING WORDING FROM THE ZFP. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 703 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...PRECIP APPEARS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY TONIGHT/MONDAY IN OUR FAR SW COUNTIES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS IN THE SW...WHILE MAINTAINING CATEGORICAL POPS IN OUR NE COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON CLOUD COVER A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. IN ALL AREAS...HAVE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED. 350 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A DECENT SHOT OF RAINFALL TO AREAS TEASED BY RAIN CHANCES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. COMPLICATED SETUP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PRESENTLY WITH A FILLING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER IOWA TRAILING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO ARKANSAS. A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS INDIANA AND NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY EASTWARD INTO THE VIRGINIAS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH 80S JUST TO THE SOUTH. A LINE OF STORMS WHICH FORMED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS JUST ABOUT DIED AS IT ENTERED OUR FORECAST AREA THANKS TO A DOME OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR VISIBLE ON THE KOHX AND KFFC 12Z/16 SOUNDINGS. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS EVEN MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S AT KLOZ EARLIER. STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER KENTUCKY TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AND SURFACE LOW NEARS. THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE COVERED BY A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. EARLIER CONVECTION HAS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HELD TEMPS DOWN SO INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL PRESENTLY BUT THIS IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO DECENT LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SPEED OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 50-KTS COMPARED TO 35 TO 40-KTS ON THE GFS. LATE PANELS OF THE RUC HINT TOWARD THE NAM SCENARIO AND WITH SUCH SPEED SHEAR AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EVIDENT AS WELL...THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS JUSTIFIED. THE LOW TRACK...SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SHOULD KEEP THE MOST PRECIP OVER OUR NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS IN THIS AREA EXPECTING OVER A HALF INCH OF TOTAL QPF. EXPECT POPS AND QPF TO TAPER DOWN OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH ANTICIPATED SOUTHWEST OF I-75. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS LOOKED REASONABLE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE LOWER 60S. EXPECT CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN MONDAY AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE COOLER MET NUMBERS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW FAST SKIES CLEAR BUT EXPECT A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT WITH LOW 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. RIDGE ALIGNED FROM EAST TEXAS NORTH TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL PROVIDE FOR A QUIET AND DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SQUASHING THE UPPER RIDGE. FOLLOWED THE 00Z/16 ECMWF AND NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST AS GFS HAS SHOWN QUITE A BIT OF RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH REGARDS TO INITIAL FRONT SENT EAST BY THE PLAINS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH BLOCKED PATTERN AND SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...IT/S DOUBTFUL FRONT WILL BE SO QUICK. ECMWF/NCEP ENSEMBLES TRACK FRONT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND STALL IT OUT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS SURFACE RIDGING OVER FLORIDA BLOCKS IT/S PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD. WAVES FORM ON THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING PERIODIC BOUTS OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS SET-UP WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR NOW WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND IT APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND SO WILL GO WITH A DRY AND MILD SUNDAY FOR NOW. MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER EXPECTED MAX VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WERE LOWERED SOME TOWARD CLIMO TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. KEPT BASICALLY WITH PERSISTENCE FOR MIN TEMPS. 1230 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 CONTINUE TO MONITOR STORMS MOVING E ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY. CURRENT TIMING WOULD BRING THESE INTO JKL/S AREA AROUND 1730Z. STILL EXPECT A DECREASING TREND AS THESE MOVE EAST...AND STILL NOT CONVINCED THEY WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT TRENDS HAVE DECIDED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY. 1049 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 AT 14Z STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IN WESTERN KY HEADED ENE. NORTHERN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS SHOWN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND...BUT SOUTHERN PORTION STILL STRONG. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP 800 TO 850 MB...WITH 20C TEMPERATURE AT 850 AT OHX. OHX SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY MID LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AS IS FOR TODAY...WITH CHANCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTH...AND NO MENTION IN SOUTH. IF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KY HOLDS TOGETHER AND LOOKS TO THREATEN THE SOUTH WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. BASED ON YESTERDAY/S HIGHS THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD IN MOST AREAS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THOUGH BASED ON VERY WARM SOUNDINGS ABOVE 925 AT OHX AND CURRENT OBSERVED TEMPERATURES. BLACK MOUNTAIN ALREADY TO 68 DEGREES AT 14Z AND HAD A HIGH YESTERDAY OF 81. UPDATED FORECAST SUITE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. 321 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA. INTENSE PLAINS LOW IS MARCHING EAST AND STIRRING UP SOME OVERRUNNING ECHOES AS MOISTURE DRAW INCREASES FROM THE GULF. WILL COVER ANY SHOWERS THAT CAN MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY WITH NO REAL TRIGGERS EXCEPT HEATING AND THE BOUNDARY WAFFLING IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PLAINS LOW DAMPENING AS IT COMES EAST... INITIATING AN MCS OVER IL/IN AND THEN BRINGING IT ESE ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE UNDER WEAKER FORCING...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WIND AND HAIL AS BEING THREATS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN IS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. IF THE BOUNDARY STAYS PUT...SOME TRAINING WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN THE HWO AS WELL. MONDAY WILL START OUT WET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND STILL LOOKS UNCERTAIN AS LATEST GFS AND EVEN THE TAIL END OF THE NAM RUN IS SHOWING THE NEXT FRONT THREATENING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AGAIN. LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES WITH A SLOWER TREND TO THE PATTERN. WILL AGAIN LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON ANY ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ HAL ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 703 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 .DISCUSSION... BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...PRECIP APPEARS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY TONIGHT/MONDAY IN OUR FAR SW COUNTIES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS IN THE SW...WHILE MAINTAINING CATEGORICAL POPS IN OUR NE COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON CLOUD COVER A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. IN ALL AREAS...HAVE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 350 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A DECENT SHOT OF RAINFALL TO AREAS TEASED BY RAIN CHANCES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. COMPLICATED SETUP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PRESENTLY WITH A FILLING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER IOWA TRAILING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO ARKANSAS. A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS INDIANA AND NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY EASTWARD INTO THE VIRGINIAS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH 80S JUST TO THE SOUTH. A LINE OF STORMS WHICH FORMED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS JUST ABOUT DIED AS IT ENTERED OUR FORECAST AREA THANKS TO A DOME OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR VISIBLE ON THE KOHX AND KFFC 12Z/16 SOUNDINGS. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS EVEN MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S AT KLOZ EARLIER. STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER KENTUCKY TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AND SURFACE LOW NEARS. THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE COVERED BY A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. EARLIER CONVECTION HAS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HELD TEMPS DOWN SO INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL PRESENTLY BUT THIS IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO DECENT LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SPEED OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 50-KTS COMPARED TO 35 TO 40-KTS ON THE GFS. LATE PANELS OF THE RUC HINT TOWARD THE NAM SCENARIO AND WITH SUCH SPEED SHEAR AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EVIDENT AS WELL...THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS JUSTIFIED. THE LOW TRACK...SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SHOULD KEEP THE MOST PRECIP OVER OUR NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS IN THIS AREA EXPECTING OVER A HALF INCH OF TOTAL QPF. EXPECT POPS AND QPF TO TAPER DOWN OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH ANTICIPATED SOUTHWEST OF I-75. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS LOOKED REASONABLE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE LOWER 60S. EXPECT CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN MONDAY AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE COOLER MET NUMBERS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW FAST SKIES CLEAR BUT EXPECT A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT WITH LOW 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. RIDGE ALIGNED FROM EAST TEXAS NORTH TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL PROVIDE FOR A QUIET AND DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SQUASHING THE UPPER RIDGE. FOLLOWED THE 00Z/16 ECMWF AND NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST AS GFS HAS SHOWN QUITE A BIT OF RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH REGARDS TO INITIAL FRONT SENT EAST BY THE PLAINS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH BLOCKED PATTERN AND SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...IT/S DOUBTFUL FRONT WILL BE SO QUICK. ECMWF/NCEP ENSEMBLES TRACK FRONT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND STALL IT OUT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS SURFACE RIDGING OVER FLORIDA BLOCKS IT/S PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD. WAVES FORM ON THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING PERIODIC BOUTS OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS SET-UP WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR NOW WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND IT APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND SO WILL GO WITH A DRY AND MILD SUNDAY FOR NOW. MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER EXPECTED MAX VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WERE LOWERED SOME TOWARD CLIMO TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. KEPT BASICALLY WITH PERSISTENCE FOR MIN TEMPS. 1230 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 CONTINUE TO MONITOR STORMS MOVING E ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY. CURRENT TIMING WOULD BRING THESE INTO JKL/S AREA AROUND 1730Z. STILL EXPECT A DECREASING TREND AS THESE MOVE EAST...AND STILL NOT CONVINCED THEY WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT TRENDS HAVE DECIDED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY. 1049 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 AT 14Z STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IN WESTERN KY HEADED ENE. NORTHERN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS SHOWN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND...BUT SOUTHERN PORTION STILL STRONG. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP 800 TO 850 MB...WITH 20C TEMPERATURE AT 850 AT OHX. OHX SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY MID LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AS IS FOR TODAY...WITH CHANCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTH...AND NO MENTION IN SOUTH. IF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KY HOLDS TOGETHER AND LOOKS TO THREATEN THE SOUTH WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. BASED ON YESTERDAY/S HIGHS THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD IN MOST AREAS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THOUGH BASED ON VERY WARM SOUNDINGS ABOVE 925 AT OHX AND CURRENT OBSERVED TEMPERATURES. BLACK MOUNTAIN ALREADY TO 68 DEGREES AT 14Z AND HAD A HIGH YESTERDAY OF 81. UPDATED FORECAST SUITE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. 321 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA. INTENSE PLAINS LOW IS MARCHING EAST AND STIRRING UP SOME OVERRUNNING ECHOES AS MOISTURE DRAW INCREASES FROM THE GULF. WILL COVER ANY SHOWERS THAT CAN MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY WITH NO REAL TRIGGERS EXCEPT HEATING AND THE BOUNDARY WAFFLING IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PLAINS LOW DAMPENING AS IT COMES EAST... INITIATING AN MCS OVER IL/IN AND THEN BRINGING IT ESE ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE UNDER WEAKER FORCING...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WIND AND HAIL AS BEING THREATS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN IS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. IF THE BOUNDARY STAYS PUT...SOME TRAINING WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN THE HWO AS WELL. MONDAY WILL START OUT WET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND STILL LOOKS UNCERTAIN AS LATEST GFS AND EVEN THE TAIL END OF THE NAM RUN IS SHOWING THE NEXT FRONT THREATENING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AGAIN. LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES WITH A SLOWER TREND TO THE PATTERN. WILL AGAIN LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON ANY ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ HAL ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 350 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A DECENT SHOT OF RAINFALL TO AREAS TEASED BY RAIN CHANCES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. COMPLICATED SETUP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PRESENTLY WITH A FILLING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER IOWA TRAILING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO ARKANSAS. A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS INDIANA AND NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY EASTWARD INTO THE VIRGINIAS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH 80S JUST TO THE SOUTH. A LINE OF STORMS WHICH FORMED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS JUST ABOUT DIED AS IT ENTERED OUR FORECAST AREA THANKS TO A DOME OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR VISIBLE ON THE KOHX AND KFFC 12Z/16 SOUNDINGS. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS EVEN MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S AT KLOZ EARLIER. STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER KENTUCKY TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AND SURFACE LOW NEARS. THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE COVERED BY A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. EARLIER CONVECTION HAS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HELD TEMPS DOWN SO INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL PRESENTLY BUT THIS IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO DECENT LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SPEED OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 50-KTS COMPARED TO 35 TO 40-KTS ON THE GFS. LATE PANELS OF THE RUC HINT TOWARD THE NAM SCENARIO AND WITH SUCH SPEED SHEAR AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EVIDENT AS WELL...THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS JUSTIFIED. THE LOW TRACK...SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SHOULD KEEP THE MOST PRECIP OVER OUR NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS IN THIS AREA EXPECTING OVER A HALF INCH OF TOTAL QPF. EXPECT POPS AND QPF TO TAPER DOWN OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH ANTICIPATED SOUTHWEST OF I-75. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS LOOKED REASONABLE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE LOWER 60S. EXPECT CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN MONDAY AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE COOLER MET NUMBERS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW FAST SKIES CLEAR BUT EXPECT A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT WITH LOW 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. RIDGE ALIGNED FROM EAST TEXAS NORTH TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL PROVIDE FOR A QUIET AND DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SQUASHING THE UPPER RIDGE. FOLLOWED THE 00Z/16 ECMWF AND NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST AS GFS HAS SHOWN QUITE A BIT OF RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH REGARDS TO INITIAL FRONT SENT EAST BY THE PLAINS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH BLOCKED PATTERN AND SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...IT/S DOUBTFUL FRONT WILL BE SO QUICK. ECMWF/NCEP ENSEMBLES TRACK FRONT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND STALL IT OUT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS SURFACE RIDGING OVER FLORIDA BLOCKS IT/S PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD. WAVES FORM ON THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING PERIODIC BOUTS OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS SET-UP WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR NOW WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND IT APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND SO WILL GO WITH A DRY AND MILD SUNDAY FOR NOW. MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER EXPECTED MAX VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WERE LOWERED SOME TOWARD CLIMO TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. KEPT BASICALLY WITH PERSISTENCE FOR MIN TEMPS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 1230 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 CONTINUE TO MONITOR STORMS MOVING E ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY. CURRENT TIMING WOULD BRING THESE INTO JKL/S AREA AROUND 1730Z. STILL EXPECT A DECREASING TREND AS THESE MOVE EAST...AND STILL NOT CONVINCED THEY WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT TRENDS HAVE DECIDED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY. 1049 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 AT 14Z STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IN WESTERN KY HEADED ENE. NORTHERN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS SHOWN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND...BUT SOUTHERN PORTION STILL STRONG. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP 800 TO 850 MB...WITH 20C TEMPERATURE AT 850 AT OHX. OHX SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY MID LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AS IS FOR TODAY...WITH CHANCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTH...AND NO MENTION IN SOUTH. IF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KY HOLDS TOGETHER AND LOOKS TO THREATEN THE SOUTH WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. BASED ON YESTERDAY/S HIGHS THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD IN MOST AREAS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THOUGH BASED ON VERY WARM SOUNDINGS ABOVE 925 AT OHX AND CURRENT OBSERVED TEMPERATURES. BLACK MOUNTAIN ALREADY TO 68 DEGREES AT 14Z AND HAD A HIGH YESTERDAY OF 81. UPDATED FORECAST SUITE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. 321 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA. INTENSE PLAINS LOW IS MARCHING EAST AND STIRRING UP SOME OVERRUNNING ECHOES AS MOISTURE DRAW INCREASES FROM THE GULF. WILL COVER ANY SHOWERS THAT CAN MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY WITH NO REAL TRIGGERS EXCEPT HEATING AND THE BOUNDARY WAFFLING IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PLAINS LOW DAMPENING AS IT COMES EAST... INITIATING AN MCS OVER IL/IN AND THEN BRINGING IT ESE ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE UNDER WEAKER FORCING...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WIND AND HAIL AS BEING THREATS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN IS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. IF THE BOUNDARY STAYS PUT...SOME TRAINING WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN THE HWO AS WELL. MONDAY WILL START OUT WET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND STILL LOOKS UNCERTAIN AS LATEST GFS AND EVEN THE TAIL END OF THE NAM RUN IS SHOWING THE NEXT FRONT THREATENING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AGAIN. LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES WITH A SLOWER TREND TO THE PATTERN. WILL AGAIN LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON ANY ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ ABE ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1230 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 .DISCUSSION... CONTINUE TO MONITOR STORMS MOVING E ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY. CURRENT TIMING WOULD BRING THESE INTO JKL/S AREA AROUND 1730Z. STILL EXPECT A DECREASING TREND AS THESE MOVE EAST...AND STILL NOT CONVINCED THEY WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT TRENDS HAVE DECIDED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 1049 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 AT 14Z STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IN WESTERN KY HEADED ENE. NORTHERN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS SHOWN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND...BUT SOUTHERN PORTION STILL STRONG. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP 800 TO 850 MB...WITH 20C TEMPERATURE AT 850 AT OHX. OHX SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY MID LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AS IS FOR TODAY...WITH CHANCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTH...AND NO MENTION IN SOUTH. IF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KY HOLDS TOGETHER AND LOOKS TO THREATEN THE SOUTH WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. BASED ON YESTERDAY/S HIGHS THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD IN MOST AREAS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THOUGH BASED ON VERY WARM SOUNDINGS ABOVE 925 AT OHX AND CURRENT OBSERVED TEMPERATURES. BLACK MOUNTAIN ALREADY TO 68 DEGREES AT 14Z AND HAD A HIGH YESTERDAY OF 81. UPDATED FORECAST SUITE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. 321 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA. INTENSE PLAINS LOW IS MARCHING EAST AND STIRRING UP SOME OVERRUNNING ECHOES AS MOISTURE DRAW INCREASES FROM THE GULF. WILL COVER ANY SHOWERS THAT CAN MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY WITH NO REAL TRIGGERS EXCEPT HEATING AND THE BOUNDARY WAFFLING IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PLAINS LOW DAMPENING AS IT COMES EAST... INITIATING AN MCS OVER IL/IN AND THEN BRINGING IT ESE ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE UNDER WEAKER FORCING...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WIND AND HAIL AS BEING THREATS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN IS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. IF THE BOUNDARY STAYS PUT...SOME TRAINING WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN THE HWO AS WELL. MONDAY WILL START OUT WET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND STILL LOOKS UNCERTAIN AS LATEST GFS AND EVEN THE TAIL END OF THE NAM RUN IS SHOWING THE NEXT FRONT THREATENING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AGAIN. LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES WITH A SLOWER TREND TO THE PATTERN. WILL AGAIN LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON ANY ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. 1055 PM EDT SAT APR 15 2006 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRED UP ALONG THE FRONT EARLIER...HOWEVER MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA. LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...AS THE RUC SHOWS LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES WITH VALLEYS RUNNING 5 DEGREES COOLER ATTM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OPENED UP THE LOWS TO A 5 DEGREE RANGE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY. 324 PM EDT SAT APR 15 2006 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SURFACE FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AT MID AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SAG SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. SOME DOUBT AS TO HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH IT WILL GET BUT MODELS SHOW CONVECTION FIRING ALONG IT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH SOME SIGN OF MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE SAGGING BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE ATMOSPHERE IS CAPPED. CIRRUS CANOPY OVER THE SOUTH HAS LIKELY CUT INTO INSTABILITY THERE AS IT HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN A TAD. AFTER HOW THINGS PANNED OUT LAST NIGHT (OR DIDN/T PAN OUT) AM A LITTLE APPREHENSIVE ABOUT RAISING POPS ANY OVERNIGHT BUT WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS UP NORTH TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST. BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH TOMORROW LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN RATHER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. STRONG CAP DEVELOPS AGAIN OVER THE AREA WITH NO TRIGGERS AROUND TO HELP A PARCEL BUST THROUGH SO HAVE LOWERED AND IN SOME AREAS TAKEN OUT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPS SOAR ONCE AGAIN TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS WITH MID 80S EXPECTED. RECORDS TOMORROW ARE 87F AT KJKL AND 86F AT KLOZ BOTH SET IN 2002. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS IS FORCED SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND BLOCKS ITS ADVANCE TO THE NORTHEAST. ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE WITH A VEERING WIND PROFILE SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MCS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE LOW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE LOW IS WEAKENING AND THE TIME OF DAY ARE POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTORS FOR OUR AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE LOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED ABOVE GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND USED A BLEND OF THE FAIRLY WIDELY SPREAD GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...REGION WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE ALOFT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WHEN COMPARED TO THIS WEEKEND WILL FILTER IN ON EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD PROVIDE FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...HAVE GONE A LITTLE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A LITTLE WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE BLOCKED BY THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND CUT-OFF LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND BUT WILL FORCE A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY. HAVE DELAYED POPS BY 24 HOURS FROM YESTERDAY/S THINKING NOW AS MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT. AFTER THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL ON THURSDAY IT APPEARS TO GET HUNG UP ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK BY A SURFACE RIDGE WHICH BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. PICTURE BECOMES CLOUDIER BOTH LITERALLY AND FIGURATIVELY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR NOW. STAYED CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PORTRAYED SEEM REASONABLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SBH ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1049 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 .DISCUSSION... AT 14Z STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IN WESTERN KY HEADED ENE. NORTHERN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS SHOWN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND...BUT SOUTHERN PORTION STILL STRONG. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP 800 TO 850 MB...WITH 20C TEMPERATURE AT 850 AT OHX. OHX SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY MID LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AS IS FOR TODAY...WITH CHANCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTH...AND NO MENTION IN SOUTH. IF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KY HOLDS TOGETHER AND LOOKS TO THREATEN THE SOUTH WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. BASED ON YESTERDAY/S HIGHS THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD IN MOST AREAS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THOUGH BASED ON VERY WARM SOUNDINGS ABOVE 925 AT OHX AND CURRENT OBSERVED TEMPERATURES. BLACK MOUNTAIN ALREADY TO 68 DEGREES AT 14Z AND HAD A HIGH YESTERDAY OF 81. UPDATED FORECAST SUITE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 321 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 STATIONARY BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE NE PORTION OF THE CWA. INTENSE PLAINS LOW IS MARCHING EAST AND STIRRING UP SOME OVERRUNNING ECHOES AS MOISTURE DRAW INCREASES FROM THE GULF. WILL COVER ANY SHOWERS THAT CAN MAKE IT TO THE GROUND AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SIMILAR DAY TO YESTERDAY WITH NO REAL TRIGGERS EXCEPT HEATING AND THE BOUNDARY WAFFLING IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PLAINS LOW DAMPENING AS IT COMES EAST... INITIATING AN MCS OVER IL/IN AND THEN BRINGING IT ESE ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE UNDER WEAKER FORCING...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WIND AND HAIL AS BEING THREATS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN IS THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. IF THE BOUNDARY STAYS PUT...SOME TRAINING WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN THE HWO AS WELL. MONDAY WILL START OUT WET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND STILL LOOKS UNCERTAIN AS LATEST GFS AND EVEN THE TAIL END OF THE NAM RUN IS SHOWING THE NEXT FRONT THREATENING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AGAIN. LATEST ECMWF CONTINUES WITH A SLOWER TREND TO THE PATTERN. WILL AGAIN LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON ANY ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. 1055 PM EDT SAT APR 15 2006 LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRED UP ALONG THE FRONT EARLIER...HOWEVER MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA. LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...AS THE RUC SHOWS LIMITED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPERATURES WITH VALLEYS RUNNING 5 DEGREES COOLER ATTM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. OPENED UP THE LOWS TO A 5 DEGREE RANGE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT. UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY. 324 PM EDT SAT APR 15 2006 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...SURFACE FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AT MID AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SAG SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH. SOME DOUBT AS TO HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH IT WILL GET BUT MODELS SHOW CONVECTION FIRING ALONG IT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH SOME SIGN OF MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE SAGGING BOUNDARY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY THE ATMOSPHERE IS CAPPED. CIRRUS CANOPY OVER THE SOUTH HAS LIKELY CUT INTO INSTABILITY THERE AS IT HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN A TAD. AFTER HOW THINGS PANNED OUT LAST NIGHT (OR DIDN/T PAN OUT) AM A LITTLE APPREHENSIVE ABOUT RAISING POPS ANY OVERNIGHT BUT WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS UP NORTH TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST. BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH TOMORROW LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA IN RATHER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. STRONG CAP DEVELOPS AGAIN OVER THE AREA WITH NO TRIGGERS AROUND TO HELP A PARCEL BUST THROUGH SO HAVE LOWERED AND IN SOME AREAS TAKEN OUT POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPS SOAR ONCE AGAIN TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS WITH MID 80S EXPECTED. RECORDS TOMORROW ARE 87F AT KJKL AND 86F AT KLOZ BOTH SET IN 2002. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS IS FORCED SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND BLOCKS ITS ADVANCE TO THE NORTHEAST. ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE WITH A VEERING WIND PROFILE SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT MCS TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE LOW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE AND LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE LOW IS WEAKENING AND THE TIME OF DAY ARE POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTORS FOR OUR AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAPER OFF BEHIND DEPARTING SURFACE LOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED ABOVE GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND USED A BLEND OF THE FAIRLY WIDELY SPREAD GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...REGION WILL BE UNDER A RIDGE ALOFT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD. A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WHEN COMPARED TO THIS WEEKEND WILL FILTER IN ON EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD PROVIDE FOR AMPLE SUNSHINE TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...HAVE GONE A LITTLE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A LITTLE WARMER DURING THE DAYTIME. LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY. THE SYSTEM WILL BE BLOCKED BY THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND CUT-OFF LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND BUT WILL FORCE A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY. HAVE DELAYED POPS BY 24 HOURS FROM YESTERDAY/S THINKING NOW AS MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT. AFTER THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL ON THURSDAY IT APPEARS TO GET HUNG UP ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK BY A SURFACE RIDGE WHICH BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. PICTURE BECOMES CLOUDIER BOTH LITERALLY AND FIGURATIVELY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR NOW. STAYED CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS PORTRAYED SEEM REASONABLE. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SBH ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 323 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 .DISCUSSION... DUE TO THE DRY CONDITIONS...THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE ARE WITH TONIGHT AND MONDAYS TEMPERATURES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC/NAM SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER MAINE...A RIDGE OVER WESTERN ONTARIO...A LONGWAVE TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A CLOSED LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRIGGERING NUMEROUS STORMS OVER OVER ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES EAST FROM THE LOW OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDS WEST INTO EASTERN WYOMING. OTHER WEAK SURFACE LOWS ARE OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA AND WEST CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN. THE RIDGE OVER ONTARIO WILL KEEP THIS LOW MOVING EAST. THE MISSOURI LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTH KENTUCKY TONIGHT...WHILE THE WYOMING LOW SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS WILL KEEP THE AIR MASS DRY AND THE WINDS LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS OVER EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDING DATA INDICATES CIRRUS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...WITH A STRONG SURFACE BASED INVERSION. THE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST SO LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS MORNING'S OVER THE U.P. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN ON TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. WARMER MOIST AIR WILL WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AS WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST ON MONDAY...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...SO WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO GUIDANCE. THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL DRAW WARMER MOIST AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL ALSO START TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME STORMS OVER WISCONSIN. BY LATE AFTERNOON SOME OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD INTO WESTERN U.P. IN THE EXTENDED...00Z ECMWF BETTER IN LINE WITH THE GFS THAN THE 15/12Z RUN WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW MOVING FROM THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. GFS HAS HAD THE BEST RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WHILE THE GLOBAL IS MOST AGGRESSIVE. THE LATEST RUN OVER THE GLOBAL ALSO COMING CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION AND IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION. PLAN TO FOLLOW A COMPROMISE OF GFS/GLOBAL THROUGH DAY 5...AS THINK THE GFS MAY BE MOVING A LITTLE FAST BECAUSE THE RIDGE SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW. BY DAY 6...THE GFS STALLS OUT OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN FOR 48 HOURS...WHILE 00Z ECMWF MAINTAIN A CONSTANT TREK EAST. WITH THE NCEP MEAN ENSEMBLE FAVOR THE FASTER MOVEMENT AT THIS POINT...THUS WILL FAVOR THE FASTER MOTION SUCH AS A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME FOR DAYS 6 AND 7. THE EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN THE RIDGE OVER THE ONTARIO SHOULD SLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS A LITTLE BEFORE DIVERTING THE SYSTEM SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN SATURDAY NIGHT REACHING NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE THE LOW WILL HAVE A SIMILAR TRACK...BUT WILL BECOME LESS DEFINED ON FRIDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH THIS OUT OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. && .MQT...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ DLG mi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 1146 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2006 .DISCUSSION... MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND FORECASTS AS LWA CRITERIA SPREADING ACROSS THE ADVISORY LOCATIONS INCLUDING ASHLEY COUNTY AND MOREHOUSE PARISH. 12-15Z RUC KEEPS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OF 5-6MB IN PLACE THROUGH 23Z BEFORE RELAXING AND BECOMING MORE WSW. VAD WIND AND PROFILERS SHOW AT LEAST 25KT GUSTS WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN FOR THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS AS THE 994MB LOW CENTER IN SERN IA MOVES ACROSS SRN IL. VERY IMPRESSIVE 900-800MB THERMAL CAP IN PLACE WHICH WOULD REQUIRE AT LEAST A TEMP/DWPT OF 93F/75F TO BREAK. LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL BURN OFF COMPLETELY HOWEVER SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROGRESS AS FAR S AS THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REMAINS WELL N OF OUR CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST AND UPDATES ON THE WAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... JACKSON 86 67 87 64 / 10 8 9 5 MERIDIAN 88 64 88 62 / 9 10 11 4 VICKSBURG 88 68 89 64 / 10 8 6 5 HATTIESBURG 88 69 88 65 / 6 4 6 3 NATCHEZ 85 68 89 65 / 7 5 4 3 GREENVILLE 86 68 89 65 / 10 8 5 5 GREENWOOD 85 67 87 63 / 10 10 6 4 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018- MSZ019-MSZ025-MSZ026-MSZ027-MSZ028-MSZ029-MSZ030-MSZ031- MSZ032-MSZ033-MSZ034-MSZ035-MSZ036-MSZ037-MSZ038-MSZ039- MSZ040-MSZ041-MSZ042-MSZ043-MSZ044-MSZ045-MSZ047-MSZ048- MSZ049-MSZ053-MSZ059-MSZ060. LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007- LAZ008-LAZ009-LAZ015-LAZ016-LAZ023-LAZ024-LAZ025-LAZ026. AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074- ARZ075. && $$ 40 ms AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1050 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2006 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES DEAL WITH HOW QUICKLY TSRA WILL EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT...AND CHANCES OF TSRA AGAIN WITH COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. GFS/NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER IA EASTWARD AND PHASING IT WITH THE LARGER UPPER LOW OFF THE NERN U.S. COAST. MEANWHILE...UPPER TROUGH NOW ENTERING NW PAC COAST WILL MOVE EWD THRU THE ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE N CNTRL CONUS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AREAL CONVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER FAR ERN MO AND OVER IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS CONTINUING TO INCREASE ALONG SFC COLD FRONT AT THE SAME TIME MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED >1,000 J/KG WITH LITTLE CINH ALONG THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. RUC SHOWS THAT THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE ERN PART OF THE CWA BY MID EVENING...SO WILL GO DRY OVERNIGHT. WILL THEN BE DRY FOR MONDAY INTO MOST OF TUESDAY AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER AREA IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. CHC OF TSRA WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LARGE SCALE UPWARD MOTION CAUSED BY UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH MO/IL. INTENSE TSRA LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL DEVELOP OVR ERN KS AND WRN MO ON TUE AFTN/EVENING AND MOVE EWD...AND FORECAST INSTABILITY DEPICTED BY NAM HAS MUCAPES (MAINLY ELEVATED PARCELS) IN THE 400-2,000J/KG RANGE. WILL KEEP MENTION OF POTENTIAL SEVERE IN THE HWO. TEMP GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND. IN THE EXTENDED (THU-SUN)...HAVE NOT MADE TOO MUCH CHANGE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SAME IDEA AS YESTERDAY THAT CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE NEWD...AND BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA ONCE THE MIDWEEK FRONT MOVES THROUGH. DID GO WITH THE SLOWER IDEA OF FRONTAL PASSAGE THOUGH LIKE THE ECMWF WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE WITH A CLOSED LOW. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AS THE LOW MOVES EWD...ALLOWING FOR NEXT WEEKEND TO BE DRY. BRITT && .AVIATION... FOR THE 06Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MAKE THEIR WAY SOUTH OVER NORTHERN MO AS OF 0330Z. SO LOOK FOR CIGS TO BEGIN FALLING AS LO LEVEL WINDS EVENTUALLY GAIN A NLY COMPONENT AND ARE ABLE TO DRAW IN THE LOWER CIGS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS IA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 07Z AND 09Z FOR ALL LOCATIONS. A SLOWER RECOVERY IN CIGS THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS MORNING WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT BY AFTERNOON. BYRD && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 910 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/... WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS DRY AIR STREAMS IN FROM THE WEST. A HOST OF BOUNDARIES ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INCLUDING A SEA BREEZE FROM THE COAST AND A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST. ANALYSES PLACE THE FRONT IN THE RALEIGH VICINITY. DWPTS OVER NORTHEASTERN NC ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN CENTRAL NC. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS. WILL UPDATES FORECAST WITH CHANGES TO CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AND WILL TWEAK TEMPS A LITTLE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 327 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006) SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... BACKDOOR FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED IN EXTREME EASTERN AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA APPEARS TO BE HUNG UP WITH NO REAL FORCING TO BRING IT THROUGH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN SFC LOW AND H5 TROF APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IMPRESSIVE DENSITY GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FRONT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING 25 DEGREES FROM THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA. DEWPOINTS ALSO DROP 15 TO 20 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY ALONG/ADJACENT TO THE SFC BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A MARKED DECREASE IN ACTIVITY THE PAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA ACTIVITY TO REMAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN VCNTY OF SFC BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT. CHANCES FOR -SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG BOUNDARY NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER OVERNIGHT...MOVING SOUTH DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS SFC LOW AND H5 TROF APPROACH THE AREA AND BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NC TOMORROW...MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WHERE BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. PRECIP ASSOC WITH BACKDOOR FRONT WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY 06Z TUES...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ONLY CHANGE TO EXTENDED GRIDS WILL BE TO LOWER MAX/MIN TEMPS DAYS 4-7 W/LATEST GUIDANCE GENERALLY COMING IN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. ONCE BACKDOOR FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THE REST OF THE WEEK. AVIATION... ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH 00Z...WIND DIRECTION FORECAST IS DIFFICULT DUE TO NEARBY SURFACE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. LEANED TOWARD THE RUC FORECAST OF SURFACE WIND DIRECTION OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 00Z WITH MSAS TRENDS SUPPORTING THE MORE EASTERLY RUC WIND DIRECTION IN MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM INT TO GSB...GIVEN THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD OCCUR PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH HALF OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...MENTIONED ONLY LIGHT RESIDUAL SHOWERS AT KRWI FOR A PERIOD DURING THE EVENING. SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN VIRGINIA HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD KRWI LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUPPORT LITTLE INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NAM...BOTH HAVE A TREND OF BRINGING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE FRONT CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY MID-MORNING MONDAY...EXPECT CEILINGS TO GO MVFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KFAY... POSSIBLY DOWN TO THE UPPER END OF IFR AT KRWI. PRIOR TO THE MVFR CEILINGS...FORECAST A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY AT KRDU...KRWI...AND KFAY DUE TO DEW POINT FORECAST OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO TEMPERATURE. NAM AND GFS BOTH FORECAST 925MB WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40KT FROM AROUND KFAY SOUTH AROUND 06Z. MARGINAL LLWS BUT OPTED TO INCLUDE IT AS THE INCREASE IN WIND AT THAT LEVEL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BUT RAPID ONSET AND DIMINISHING. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE AT THE END AND BEYOND THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JO nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 327 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... BACKDOOR FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED IN EXTREME EASTERN AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA APPEARS TO BE HUNG UP WITH NO REAL FORCING TO BRING IT THROUGH UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN SFC LOW AND H5 TROF APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IMPRESSIVE DENSITY GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FRONT...WITH TEMPS DROPPING 25 DEGREES FROM THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA. DEWPOINTS ALSO DROP 15 TO 20 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED TODAY ALONG/ADJACENT TO THE SFC BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN NC AND SOUTHERN VA. HOWEVER...LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A MARKED DECREASE IN ACTIVITY THE PAST FEW HOURS. EXPECT ISOLATED -SHRA ACTIVITY TO REMAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WHERE WEAK CONVERGENCE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN VCNTY OF SFC BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT. CHANCES FOR -SHRA ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ALONG BOUNDARY NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER OVERNIGHT...MOVING SOUTH DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON TOMORROW AS SFC LOW AND H5 TROF APPROACH THE AREA AND BACKDOOR FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NC TOMORROW...MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA WHERE BOUNDARY PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. PRECIP ASSOC WITH BACKDOOR FRONT WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY 06Z TUES...WITH HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 40S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... ONLY CHANGE TO EXTENDED GRIDS WILL BE TO LOWER MAX/MIN TEMPS DAYS 4-7 W/LATEST GUIDANCE GENERALLY COMING IN SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. ONCE BACKDOOR FRONT CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION... ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH 00Z...WIND DIRECTION FORECAST IS DIFFICULT DUE TO NEARBY SURFACE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. LEANED TOWARD THE RUC FORECAST OF SURFACE WIND DIRECTION OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 00Z WITH MSAS TRENDS SUPPORTING THE MORE EASTERLY RUC WIND DIRECTION IN MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM INT TO GSB...GIVEN THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD OCCUR PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH HALF OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...MENTIONED ONLY LIGHT RESIDUAL SHOWERS AT KRWI FOR A PERIOD DURING THE EVENING. SHOWERS OCCURRING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN VIRGINIA HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD KRWI LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUPPORT LITTLE INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NAM...BOTH HAVE A TREND OF BRINGING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VERY LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE FRONT CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY MID-MORNING MONDAY...EXPECT CEILINGS TO GO MVFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KFAY... POSSIBLY DOWN TO THE UPPER END OF IFR AT KRWI. PRIOR TO THE MVFR CEILINGS...FORECAST A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY AT KRDU...KRWI...AND KFAY DUE TO DEW POINT FORECAST OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO TEMPERATURE. NAM AND GFS BOTH FORECAST 925MB WINDS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 40KT FROM AROUND KFAY SOUTH AROUND 06Z. MARGINAL LLWS BUT OPTED TO INCLUDE IT AS THE INCREASE IN WIND AT THAT LEVEL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BUT RAPID ONSET AND DIMINISHING. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SHOULD BE AT THE END AND BEYOND THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...VINCENT AVIATION...DJF nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1042 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... SURFACE FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAVING PUSHED THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. ALONG THIS WEAK BOUNDARY INSTABILITY AND DEW POINTS HAVE POOLED... WITH MSAS SHOWING LIFTED INDICES NEAR 0C AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. GIVEN DAYTIME HEATING...DO NOT EXPECT THE WEAK BOUNDARY TO MAKE ANY FURTHER PROGRESS SOUTH...BUT IT COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS TENNESSEE COULD ASSIST IN THIS...WHICH IS FORECAST BY THE NAM TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. NEITHER THE NAM NOR THE RUC HAVE VERY MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AT ALL FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON...AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CIN ON THE MODIFIED 12Z GSO SOUNDING FOR UPPER 80S OVER UPPER 50S...THAT FORECAST MAKES SENSE. IF NOT FOR THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS WOULD SEEM AWFULLY REMOTE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE BOUNDARY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE FROM THE WEST...CONTINUED ISOLATED CHANCES OVER ESSENTIALLY THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA ARE PRUDENT. SCATTERED CHANCES WERE INTRODUCED IN NORTHEAST ZONES...IN PART DUE TO ONGOING RADAR TRENDS...BUT ALSO BECAUSE THAT AREA SHOULD HAVE THE HIGHER AFTERNOON DEW POINTS...BETTER SURFACE AND 850MB CONVERGENCE...AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TO MOVE IN FROM VIRGINIA EAST OF THE 700MB RIDGE AXIS. LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND IT WILL BE A WARM ONE ONCE AGAIN WITH MANY UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 MAXES EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO RECORDS AT GSO AND RDU. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 925MB WINDS UNDER 10KT AND 850MB WINDS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE 10-15KT BY 21Z. GRIDDED AND WORDED FORECAST UPDATE ALREADY ISSUED. WILL LIKELY UPDATE DIGITAL AND WORDED INFORMATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO REFRESH. && .FIRE WEATHER... MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MODIFIED 12Z GSO SOUNDING SUGGESTS MIXING HEIGHTS WILL BE AT LEAST NEAR 8000FT ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST ZONES AROUND ALBEMARLE...ROCKINGHAM...AND RAEFORD. LOWERED SURFACE DEW POINT FORECAST IN THOSE AREAS A TOUCH THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE FORECAST BY THE RUC...WHICH APPEARS BETTER THAN THE FORECAST OF THE NAM. THE FORMER LOWERS DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON IN FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES...WHILE THE NAM MAINTAINS DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 50S THERE...WHICH SEEMS SIMPLY TOO HIGH. WITH TEMPERATURES...THIS PUSHES MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 20 AND 25 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TODAY... BUT FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT IN GENERAL. WILL CONTINUE STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING FIRE DANGER...AND EVEN MENTION THE NORTHEAST WHERE...DESPITE HIGHER DEW POINTS TODAY AND LIGHTER WINDS...DRY WEATHER OF LATE HAS RESULTED IN FUEL MOISTURE NO BETTER THAN ANY OTHER LOCATION IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND FIRE DANGER CLASS IS AT OR WORSE THAN THE REST OF THE REGION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 315 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006) SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... TODAY...MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE ALONG DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BATTLE THE WESTERLY DRY FLOW TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWER/TS COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CWA. UP TO THIS POINT...THE DRY AIR HAS BEEN THE VICTOR WITH ONLY ONE OR TWO SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA OVER THE PAST 48 HRS. MODEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAX TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN CURRENT SUITE OF 00Z MOS GUIDANCE. THE NAM VERIFIED BEST WITH THE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARMTH OF SATURDAY...THUS WILL LEAN TOWARDS NAM MODEL THICKNESSES NEAR 1420M...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...SANDHILLS...AND COASTAL PLAIN. COOLER ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN WITH GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE AND A DROP IN THICKNESSES OF ABOUT 20M. TONIGHT...CLOSED CYCLONIC CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND WILL BE THE KICKER FOR BACKDOOR FRONT ON MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS FRONT STARTS TO DRIFT DOWN. OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. LOWS 60 TO 65. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...TIMING OF ACTUAL BACKDOOR ANAFRONT STILL QUESTIONABLE. FORECAST MODELS REALLY PLUNGE THE COOLER AIR AHEAD OF ACTUAL PRECIP. THE FACT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS FINALLY INCREASED INCREASED WITH N/NE 925H WINDS OF 25KTS BY 18Z MAKES IT A LITTLE MORE BELIEVABLE. THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE COOLER AIR REALLY STABILIZES NORTHERN SECTIONS. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EVOLVE ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS...COOLER AIR AND PRECIP. MODELS INDICATING MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDER. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY (60%) WITH MODELS INDICATING DECENT AIRMASS/DENSITY CHANGE WITH FROPA AND PW'S ~ 1.4". POPS TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z-06Z WITH NO PRECIP BEYOND 12Z. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CURRENT FORECAST. NO CHANGES PLANNED. AVIATION... TRAJECTORIES SUPPORT A STEADY FLUX OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND 15000-18000 FEET... THICKEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES. SCATTERED HIGH-BASE CUMULUS WITH HEATING IS ALSO POSSIBLE BUT THE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE SURFACE-BASED MIXED LAYER WILL KEEP IT FROM BECOMING BROKEN. TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS STILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE BUT ISOLATED STORM CHANCES LOOK MOST LIKELY NEAREST THE FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EMANATING FROM IT... AT RDU/RWI... HOWEVER DUE TO EXPECTED LOW COVERAGE WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. THESE OUTFLOWS AND THE APPROACHING FRONT ALSO MAKE WIND FORECASTS MESSY... AND HAVE GONE WITH LIGHT MAINLY WEST WINDS TO START AT ALL TAF SITES... BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KNOTS... THEN PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON YET STILL LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. ALL VISIBILITIES VFR ALTHOUGH MVFR VALUES SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. FIRE WEATHER... WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER ON SUNDAY WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS MAX TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ACROSS MUCH OF CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANOTHER WELL MIXED DEEP DRY ADIABATIC LAYER TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIER DEWPOINT AIR TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE DRIER ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE PROMINENT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN RH BETWEEN 25 TO 30%. MOISTURE POOLING NEAR AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WITH RH BETWEEN 30 TO 35. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AS 850-700 RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. EXTREME DRYNESS OF FINE FUELS IS THE BIG STORY HERE...WORSENING WITH EACH PASSING DAY OF NO RAINFALL. ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWER/THUNDER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL OFFER LITTLE TO NO RECOVERY. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE SPS FOR HIGH FIRE THREAT WITH THIS PACKAGE. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DJF FIRE WEATHER...DJF nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 1015 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 .SHORT TERM UPDATE (TONIGHT)... ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERRUNNING / LIMITED CAPE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVG. NORTHERLY PROGRESSION IS LIMITED BY A REINFORCING NELY FLOW DRY AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. NAM12 SHOWS THE NELY FLOW OF DRY AIR DEEPENING ACRS THE AREA AFTER THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME AND THUS SHIFTS THE CONVECTION/OVRRNG RAIN SOUTH. SINCE LOW LVLS NOW SATURATED ACRS THE SE HAVE UPDATED TO JUST GO WITH CATIGORICAL WORDING INITIALLY AND THEN WORD IN DECREASING CLOUDINESS LATE AS THE DRY AIR MOVES IN. NO OTHER CHGS ATTM. && .AVIATION (00Z-24Z)... THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SW ILLINOIS. CURRENT TRACK OF LOW WILL MOVE IT INTO NRN KY TONIGHT TAKING MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SE. THERE IS A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LIFT OVER OHIO...BUT AIRMASS IS SO DRY THAT DONT EXPECT MORE THAN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO POP UP ACROSS OHIO TONIGHT. ONLY PART OF FORECAST AREA THAT COULD POSSIBLY HEAR A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER TONIGHT IS SOUTH OF A FDY TO MT VERNON LINE. RADAR LOOKS IMPRESSIVE OVER OHIO...IN REALITY ONLY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR TOLEDO. LITTLE ELSE ON THE RADAR IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT DOES THE SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT...EXCEPT A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. EXPECT A BREEZY NE FLOW TOMORROW...BUT LITTLE ELSE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER. && .SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)... LOW-MID LVLS ARE VERY DRY ACROSS THE REGION AS NELY FLOW AT 850MB CONTINUES. RADAR MOSAIC HAS SHOWN RETURNS ALL DAY ACROSS NRN OH...BUT NOTHING HAS REACHED THE GROUND DUE TO RH VALUES AT 850MB LESS THAN 30 PCT. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SET UP FROM THE SFC LOW IN IOWA ACROSS IN/IL AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. IT IS VERY STABLE N OF THE FRONT WITH DWPTS IN THE LOWER 40S AND LI/S WELL ABOVE ZERO...WHILE S OF THE FRONT IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH LI/S WELL BELOW ZERO. THE GOING FCST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. DESPITE THE FACT THAT FRONTOGENESIS AND UPWARD MOTION INCREASES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...LOWEST 5000 FT REMAINS VERY DRY IN THE NELY FLOW. EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT DAYTON WITH THE LOW TRACK OVR SRN OH...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP NRN CUTOFF TO PCPN TONIGHT. WL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A TOL TO CAK LINE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IN REALITY IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SOUTH/WEST OF A FDY TO MT VERNON LINE WHERE 850MB FLOW TRIES TO TURN SWLY PERHAPS ALLOWING JUST ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE TO SNEAK IN FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WOULD ALSO NOT TOTALLY SURPRISE ME IF THE WHOLE AREA STAYS DRY TONIGHT BUT WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER NRN IL/SRN WI AND EVEN INTO NRN IN IT WOULD NOT BE WISE TO REMOVE POPS AS THE NRN EDGE OF AN MCS COULD CLIP THE FAR S. AS FOR THE CLE AREA...WL GO WITH A CHC OF EVENING SPRINKLES INSTEAD OF SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS SIMPLY DUE TO THE DRY AIR. WL ALSO CONTINUE WITH CHC OF THUNDER AS WELL TONIGHT FROM FDY TO MT VERNON. ALTHOUGH SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NIL... MID LVL LAPSE RATES DO RISE TO AROUND 7.0 C/KM AND THE 15Z RUC DOES SUGGEST ABOUT 500 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE VALUES AT FDY THIS EVENING. DOUBTFUL ANY STORM WILL BECOME STRONG ACROSS THE SW AS THE DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY STORM IN CHECK. THE GFS AND NAM...AS WELL AS MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS SKIES BECOMING SUNNY TMRW MRNG. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE NR LAKE ERIE WHERE NELY FLOW COMBINED WITH COLD 850MB TEMPS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT THESE TO BE SCT AT MOST WITH VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE SO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD STILL WORK. ALTHOUGH THE NELY FLOW AND COLD 850MB TEMPS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP OUT DESPITE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS. WL GO WITH THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME FROST MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NW PA AND IN INTERIOR SHELTEED LOCATIONS OF N-CENTRAL OH. CONTINUED MOSTLY SUNNY TUE AND PROBABLY WED...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLDS AHD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS ON WED SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID-UPR 60S...WITH EVEN A FEW 70S SOUTH WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +8C BY EVENING. && .LONG TERM(WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)... THE GFS STILL WANTS TO BRING IN PCPN LATE WED NIGHT...BUT WITH THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE AND THE RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER WRN PA AT 12Z THU...AM THINKING THAT ANY PCPN WL BE DELAYED UNTIL THU AND EVEN THAT PCPN SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT BEST WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO VERY DRY AIR. BEST PCPN CHANCES MAY BE FRI AFTN INTO SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THRU THE LAKES. IN GENERAL...HPC LIKES THE ECMWF NORTHERN SOLN WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE WARM SIDE AT LEAST THRU THU. WILL RAISE POPS TO 40 PCT FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE THE UPR LOW WILL CAMP OUT OVER THE EAST FOR THE WKND. ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE AN ALL WKND RAIN EVENT TO SAY THE LEAST...IT WOULD SEEM THAT WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL NEED AT LEAST A CHC OF SHOWERS THRU THE WKND. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED FCST WILL FEATURE CHC POPS EACH DAY...BUT OVERALL THERE SHOULD BE PERIODS OF DRY WX. JUST TOO TOUGH TO PIN DOWN THOSE PERIODS RIGHT NOW. WL GO A LITTLE WARMER THAN GFSX MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE WARM 850MB TEMPS FROM THE EC MODEL. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...TK SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...DJB oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 745 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 .AVIATION (00Z-24Z)... THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ILLINOIS AND INDIANA ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SW ILLINOIS. CURRENT TRACK OF LOW WILL MOVE IT INTO NRN KY TONIGHT TAKING MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SE. THERE IS A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LIFT OVER OHIO...BUT AIRMASS IS SO DRY THAT DONT EXPECT MORE THAN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS TO POP UP ACROSS OHIO TONIGHT. ONLY PART OF FORECAST AREA THAT COULD POSSIBLY HEAR A STRAY RUMBLE OF THUNDER TONIGHT IS SOUTH OF A FDY TO MT VERNON LINE. RADAR LOOKS IMPRESSIVE OVER OHIO...IN REALITY ONLY A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR TOLEDO. LITTLE ELSE ON THE RADAR IS ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND. MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS IT DOES THE SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT...EXCEPT A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. EXPECT A BREEZY NE FLOW TOMORROW...BUT LITTLE ELSE IN THE WAY OF WEATHER. && .SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)... LOW-MID LVLS ARE VERY DRY ACROSS THE REGION AS NELY FLOW AT 850MB CONTINUES. RADAR MOSAIC HAS SHOWN RETURNS ALL DAY ACROSS NRN OH...BUT NOTHING HAS REACHED THE GROUND DUE TO RH VALUES AT 850MB LESS THAN 30 PCT. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SET UP FROM THE SFC LOW IN IOWA ACROSS IN/IL AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. IT IS VERY STABLE N OF THE FRONT WITH DWPTS IN THE LOWER 40S AND LI/S WELL ABOVE ZERO...WHILE S OF THE FRONT IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH LI/S WELL BELOW ZERO. THE GOING FCST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. DESPITE THE FACT THAT FRONTOGENESIS AND UPWARD MOTION INCREASES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...LOWEST 5000 FT REMAINS VERY DRY IN THE NELY FLOW. EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT DAYTON WITH THE LOW TRACK OVR SRN OH...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP NRN CUTOFF TO PCPN TONIGHT. WL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A TOL TO CAK LINE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IN REALITY IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SOUTH/WEST OF A FDY TO MT VERNON LINE WHERE 850MB FLOW TRIES TO TURN SWLY PERHAPS ALLOWING JUST ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE TO SNEAK IN FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WOULD ALSO NOT TOTALLY SURPRISE ME IF THE WHOLE AREA STAYS DRY TONIGHT BUT WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER NRN IL/SRN WI AND EVEN INTO NRN IN IT WOULD NOT BE WISE TO REMOVE POPS AS THE NRN EDGE OF AN MCS COULD CLIP THE FAR S. AS FOR THE CLE AREA...WL GO WITH A CHC OF EVENING SPRINKLES INSTEAD OF SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS SIMPLY DUE TO THE DRY AIR. WL ALSO CONTINUE WITH CHC OF THUNDER AS WELL TONIGHT FROM FDY TO MT VERNON. ALTHOUGH SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NIL... MID LVL LAPSE RATES DO RISE TO AROUND 7.0 C/KM AND THE 15Z RUC DOES SUGGEST ABOUT 500 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE VALUES AT FDY THIS EVENING. DOUBTFUL ANY STORM WILL BECOME STRONG ACROSS THE SW AS THE DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY STORM IN CHECK. THE GFS AND NAM...AS WELL AS MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS SKIES BECOMING SUNNY TMRW MRNG. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE NR LAKE ERIE WHERE NELY FLOW COMBINED WITH COLD 850MB TEMPS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT THESE TO BE SCT AT MOST WITH VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE SO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD STILL WORK. ALTHOUGH THE NELY FLOW AND COLD 850MB TEMPS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP OUT DESPITE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS. WL GO WITH THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME FROST MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NW PA AND IN INTERIOR SHELTEED LOCATIONS OF N-CENTRAL OH. CONTINUED MOSTLY SUNNY TUE AND PROBABLY WED...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLDS AHD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS ON WED SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID-UPR 60S...WITH EVEN A FEW 70S SOUTH WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +8C BY EVENING. && .LONG TERM(WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)... THE GFS STILL WANTS TO BRING IN PCPN LATE WED NIGHT...BUT WITH THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE AND THE RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER WRN PA AT 12Z THU...AM THINKING THAT ANY PCPN WL BE DELAYED UNTIL THU AND EVEN THAT PCPN SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT BEST WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO VERY DRY AIR. BEST PCPN CHANCES MAY BE FRI AFTN INTO SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THRU THE LAKES. IN GENERAL...HPC LIKES THE ECMWF NORTHERN SOLN WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE WARM SIDE AT LEAST THRU THU. WILL RAISE POPS TO 40 PCT FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE THE UPR LOW WILL CAMP OUT OVER THE EAST FOR THE WKND. ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE AN ALL WKND RAIN EVENT TO SAY THE LEAST...IT WOULD SEEM THAT WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL NEED AT LEAST A CHC OF SHOWERS THRU THE WKND. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED FCST WILL FEATURE CHC POPS EACH DAY...BUT OVERALL THERE SHOULD BE PERIODS OF DRY WX. JUST TOO TOUGH TO PIN DOWN THOSE PERIODS RIGHT NOW. WL GO A LITTLE WARMER THAN GFSX MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE WARM 850MB TEMPS FROM THE EC MODEL. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...DJB oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 325 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 .SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)... LOW-MID LVLS ARE VERY DRY ACROSS THE REGION AS NELY FLOW AT 850MB CONTINUES. RADAR MOSAIC HAS SHOWN RETURNS ALL DAY ACROSS NRN OH...BUT NOTHING HAS REACHED THE GROUND DUE TO RH VALUES AT 850MB LESS THAN 30 PCT. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SET UP FROM THE SFC LOW IN IOWA ACROSS IN/IL AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. IT IS VERY STABLE N OF THE FRONT WITH DWPTS IN THE LOWER 40S AND LI/S WELL ABOVE ZERO...WHILE S OF THE FRONT IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH LI/S WELL BELOW ZERO. THE GOING FCST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. DESPITE THE FACT THAT FRONTOGENESIS AND UPWARD MOTION INCREASES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...LOWEST 5000 FT REMAINS VERY DRY IN THE NELY FLOW. EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT DAYTON WITH THE LOW TRACK OVR SRN OH...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP NRN CUTOFF TO PCPN TONIGHT. WL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A TOL TO CAK LINE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IN REALITY IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SOUTH/WEST OF A FDY TO MT VERNON LINE WHERE 850MB FLOW TRIES TO TURN SWLY PERHAPS ALLOWING JUST ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE TO SNEAK IN FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WOULD ALSO NOT TOTALLY SURPRISE ME IF THE WHOLE AREA STAYS DRY TONIGHT BUT WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER NRN IL/SRN WI AND EVEN INTO NRN IN IT WOULD NOT BE WISE TO REMOVE POPS AS THE NRN EDGE OF AN MCS COULD CLIP THE FAR S. AS FOR THE CLE AREA...WL GO WITH A CHC OF EVENING SPRINKLES INSTEAD OF SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS SIMPLY DUE TO THE DRY AIR. WL ALSO CONTINUE WITH CHC OF THUNDER AS WELL TONIGHT FROM FDY TO MT VERNON. ALTHOUGH SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NIL... MID LVL LAPSE RATES DO RISE TO AROUND 7.0 C/KM AND THE 15Z RUC DOES SUGGEST ABOUT 500 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE VALUES AT FDY THIS EVENING. DOUBTFUL ANY STORM WILL BECOME STRONG ACROSS THE SW AS THE DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY STORM IN CHECK. THE GFS AND NAM...AS WELL AS MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS SKIES BECOMING SUNNY TMRW MRNG. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE NR LAKE ERIE WHERE NELY FLOW COMBINED WITH COLD 850MB TEMPS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT THESE TO BE SCT AT MOST WITH VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE SO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD STILL WORK. ALTHOUGH THE NELY FLOW AND COLD 850MB TEMPS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP OUT DESPITE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS. WL GO WITH THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME FROST MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NW PA AND IN INTERIOR SHELTEED LOCATIONS OF N-CENTRAL OH. CONTINUED MOSTLY SUNNY TUE AND PROBABLY WED...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLDS AHD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS ON WED SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID-UPR 60S...WITH EVEN A FEW 70S SOUTH WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +8C BY EVENING. && .LONG TERM(WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)... THE GFS STILL WANTS TO BRING IN PCPN LATE WED NIGHT...BUT WITH THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE AND THE RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER WRN PA AT 12Z THU...AM THINKING THAT ANY PCPN WL BE DELAYED UNTIL THU AND EVEN THAT PCPN SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT BEST WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO VERY DRY AIR. BEST PCPN CHANCES MAY BE FRI AFTN INTO SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THRU THE LAKES. IN GENERAL...HPC LIKES THE ECMWF NORTHERN SOLN WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE WARM SIDE AT LEAST THRU THU. WILL RAISE POPS TO 40 PCT FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE THE UPR LOW WILL CAMP OUT OVER THE EAST FOR THE WKND. ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE AN ALL WKND RAIN EVENT TO SAY THE LEAST...IT WOULD SEEM THAT WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL NEED AT LEAST A CHC OF SHOWERS THRU THE WKND. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED FCST WILL FEATURE CHC POPS EACH DAY...BUT OVERALL THERE SHOULD BE PERIODS OF DRY WX. JUST TOO TOUGH TO PIN DOWN THOSE PERIODS RIGHT NOW. WL GO A LITTLE WARMER THAN GFSX MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE WARM 850MB TEMPS FROM THE EC MODEL. && .AVIATION (18Z-18Z)... DRY NELY FLOW SHUD KP LWR CLDS AND MOST PRECIP SW OF TAF SITES ALTHO A FEW SHRA MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT FDY FOR A WHILE THIS AFTN. MOST OTHER SHRA WL FIND IT HARD TO HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENUF AS THEY PUSH NE INTO THE DRIER AMS NE OF THE STNRY FNT OVR IL...SRN INDY INTO KY. SHUD BE AREAS OF MAINLY MID LVL CLDS INTO TNGT THEN EVEN THESE CLDS WL GET PUSHED INTO SRN OH LATER TNGT INTO MON MORN. CUD SEE SOME LK EFCT CLDS LATE TNGT INTO MON MORN BUT WITH GNL HI PRES RDGG INTO AREA FM THE N SHUD BE ONLY SCT AT MOST. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...ADAMS oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD 300 PM MDT SUN APR 16 2006 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY UNDER WEAK UPPER RIDGE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. VIS SAT SHOWING AN EXCEPTION ACROSS THE FAR SE PARTS OF THE FA WHERE LOW DECK HAS PERSISTED ALL DAY KEEPING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CWA ATTM WITH KSFD STILL IN NRLY FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SERLY THIS EVENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WHICH WILL HELP PUSH THE LOW DECK FARTHER INTO THE SD PLAINS. THE GFS/ETA/AND RUC ALL SUGGESTING THIS COULD BE A CLOUDY NIGHT AND AS A RESULT HAVE UPPED MIN TEMPS FOR THE PLAINS. LARGE UPPER TROUGH WEST WILL CONTINUE ITS APPROACH TONIGHT. SHRA HAVE ALREADY BEGUN DEVELOPING ACROSS MT/ND AS SMALL WAVES PROPAGATE THROUGH THE SW FLOW. HAVE KEPT IN CHC POPS THIS EVENING ACROSS NE WY/NW SD AS THESE SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT ACROSS THE CWA BORDER BEFORE MIDNIGHT. JUST EXPANDED AREA OF CHC POPS FROM 06Z-12Z AS TROUGH MOVES CLOSER. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT LOOK AT TIMING OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS TO SEE IF POPS NEED TO BE RAISED OR REMOVED. TOMORROW BAROCLINIC TROUGH WILL SET UP ALONG THE WRN BORDER OF THE CWA AS ENERGY MOVES UP IN THE UPPER FLOW. RAIN WILL BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA IN THE MORNING. ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE IN THE AFTERNOON FIRST ACROSS THE PLAINS JUST EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS...AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ETA20 SHOWING MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE AS MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. BIGGEST SEVERE WX THREAT TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE HAIL. LOOKS LIKE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE MORE TOWARD CENTRAL SD WHERE THE BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED IN THE EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL THEN PUSH EAST OF THE CWA BY OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TUES AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. BIG DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODEL RUNS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO A CLOSED LOW. 06Z GFS PLACED THE TRACK OF THE H50 LOW ACROSS ND RESULTING IN A MUCH WARMER SOLUTION AND MUCH LESS SNOW AMOUNTS. THE 12Z RUN HAS NOW THE TRACK ACROSS THE SD/NE BORDER BRINGING A LOT OF SNOW TO THE SD PLAINS AND BLACK HILLS. THIS SOLUTION HAS THE TRACK CLOSER TO THE ETA...BUT THE ETA HAS A MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT WITH WITH MUCH LESS QPF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. GENERAL CONSENSUS WAS TO NOT TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST...SO THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO POPS/WX/SNOW QPF. COORDINATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES TO STICK WITH HPC (WWD) GUIDANCE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD OF 4-8" SNOW ACROSS WESTERN SD AND THE HILLS. EXTENDED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z POSSIBLE IN THE WEST. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE KRAP-KPIR TWEB ROUTE TONIGHT AS RETURN FLOW BRINGS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SD PLAINS. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. WY...NONE. && $$ CALDERON/HELGESON sd AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 1107 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 HAVE OPTED TO UPDATE THE GOING FCST FOR A FEW CHANGES TO THE FIRST TWO PERIODS. .SYNOPSIS... HI PRESS TO BUILD ACRS THE GREAT LKS REGION THRU TONITE. CYCLONIC FLOW TO PERSIST ACRS THE FA TODAY. UPR TROF TO MOVE DOWN ACRS THE FA THRU TONITE AS WELL. .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... 09-11Z RUC13 SHOWS TEMPS TO GET UP INTO THE 40S-L50S TODAY WITH N-NW SFC WINDS AT 10-15G20-25 KTS. T1MAX TEMPS ARE AROUND 50F TODAY. FEW TWEAKS TO FIRST PERIOD TEMPS/WINDS BASED ON THIS DATA AND MESONET OBS. RUC SHOWS CLDY SKIES ACRS THE FA TODAY WITH MOSTLY SOME MTN -SHRA. WK H85 CAA TO TAKE PLACE ACRS THE FA THRU TONITE. H85 TEMPS TO STAY NEGATIVE ACRS THE FA THRU TONITE. 1151Z AMDAR ASCENT SOUNDING OUT OF KBTV SHOWED THE FREEZING LVL AT AROUND 3.0 KFT. H925 WET-BULB TEMPS TO GO NEGATIVE ACRS THE FA BETWEEN 06Z TONITE AND 12Z MON. LOW-LVL MSTR TO LINGER ACRS THE FA THRU TONITE. LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES TO BE HI ACRS THE FA TODAY. SOME MID-LVL MSTR TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE FA TONITE. PW VALUES ACRS THE FA LOOK TO BE 0.2-0.5" TODAY AND TONITE. BUFCAN/88D MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW RETURNS ACRS THE FA ATTM. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME POCKETS OF ISOLATED -SHSN ACRS THE FA ATTM...BUT HAVE LEFT ANY PCPN MENTIONED FOR THE REST OF TODAY AS POSSIBLE -SHRA. WILL CONT TO TAPER POPS OFF ACRS THE FA FROM WEST TO EAST (HIGHEST ACRS MUCH OF NE/NC VT) TODAY AND TONITE. P-TYPE STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK OVER TO -SHSN BY LATER TONITE ACRS THE HIGHEST TRRN. REST OF CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST COSMETIC. ALL FINAL PRODUCTS ALREADY ISSUED. LATER... .HYDROLOGY... 24-QPE (THRU 13-14Z TODAY) ACRS THE FA LOOKED TO BE AOB 0.25". ONLY A FEW PORTIONS OF THE NRN FA HAVE RECEIVED WIDESPREAD 0.25" OR HIGHER AMTS OVER THE LAST 5 DAYS. .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006/ SYNOPSIS... WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACRS THE CONUS WITH ONE CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE NE UNITED STATES AND ANOTHER ONE ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A BLOCKING PATTERN IS DEVELOPING WITH RIDGE ACRS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND HIGH OVER LOW ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ATTM. THIS WL PROVIDE OUR CWA WITH A PROLONG PERIOD OF NW FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH. OTHERWISE...MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AT 5H BASED ON UA OBS AND LATEST WATER VAPOR TRENDS...BUT NOTICED NAM A BIT TOO FAR NORTH WITH CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER NORTHERN ME ATTM. BOTH NAM/GFS INITIALIZED WELL WITH 85H/5H TEMPS...MOISTURE FIELDS...AND INDIVIDUAL S/W'S ROTATING AROUND MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION. THEREFORE WL USE A BLEND OF NAM/GFS FOR THIS FCST PACKAGE AND LOCAL WS-ETA FOR MESOSCALE FEATURES LIKE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE PRECIP TODAY/MONDAY. SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MID/UPPER LVL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WL CONT ACRS THE NE CONUS THRU MONDAY WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED 5H VORT PASSING OVER OUR FA. THIS ENHANCED LIFT COMBINED WITH SOME UPSLOPE FLW...STEEP 1000-700MB LAPSE RATES...AND PLENTY OF 1000-850MB MOISTURE WL KEEP WX PATTERN UNSETTLED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE BEST LLVL FORCING AND MOISTURE WL BE ACRS THE MTNS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN VT. TWO LIMITING FACTORS FOR UPSLOPE PRECIP IS LLVL FLW <30KTS AND THE NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT. WL USE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM TO DEPICT BEST POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE PRECIP TODAY INTO MONDAY...WHICH WL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MTNS ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT. IN ADDITION... 1000-850MB AND 850-700MB THICKNESS VALUES...ALONG WITH PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR -4C SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES... ESPECIALLY ABOVE 1500FT AND DURING THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE SFC HEATING WARMS THE BL TOO MUCH. OTHERWISE...BASED ON NORTHERLY SFC FLW AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS WL MENTION TEMPS NEAR 50F BTV TO M/U40S FOR SLK. FEEL VSF WL WARM INTO THE L/M 50S BASED ON DOWNSLOPING WARMING FROM NW FLOW OFF THE GREENS. TONIGHT...CLOUDS WL LIMIT DIURNAL RANGE AND TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO QUICKLY. MONDAY...ANOTHER 5H VORT DROPS ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN ZNS...WHERE THE BEST 1000-500MB RH VALUES WL BE. WL MENTION SCHC POPS CPV TO CHC POPS NORTH/CENTRAL MTNS AND KEEP SLV DRY ATTM. PROGGED 85H TEMPS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN SUNDAY...SO EXPECTING HIGHS AROUND 50 AGAIN. TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AS NORTHERN PLAINS RIDGE BUILDS INTO OUR FA. LLVL MOISTURE DECREASES AND DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS OUR FA. WL SEE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL LVLS...BASED ON PROGGED 85H TEMPS NEAR 0C. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE U50S TO LWR 60S. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING FROM CENTRAL CANADA WL DOMINATE OUR WX FOR WEDS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WE WL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL LVLS. WL HAVE TO MONITOR PROGRESSION OF BACKDOOR FRNT LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BASED ON SFC WINDS AND LLVL THICKNESS PATTERN...ESPECIALLY IF HIGH PRES DEVELOPS ACRS CENTRAL ME. WITH ABOVE NORMAL FCSTER CONFIDENCE AND ENSEMBLE DATA SUPPORTING PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 6-8C FOR THURS/FRI WL ADJUST OUR EXTENDED GRIDS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. OTHERWISE...CLOUD/PRECIP GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE ATTM. AVIATION... OVERALL...CHANGES IN AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE RATHER MINOR. CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ON SWRN PERIPHERY OF SLOW MOVING MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW...AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL MAINTAIN BKN TO OVC CEILINGS AT TAF SITES THRU THE PERIOD ENDING 12Z MONDAY. CEILINGS SHOULD RISE FROM MVFR RANGE TO VFR RANGE OWING TO MARGINAL INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTH/LOW-LEVEL MIXING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER BACK TO MVFR RANGE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED -SHRA ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH SWWD MOVING REGION OF DPVA ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY SHOULD BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED AS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED APPROPRIATE TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR -SHRA WITHOUT VSBY RESTRICTION /23-03Z AT KBTV AND KSLK...AND SLIGHTLY EARLIER AT KMPV/. NWLY SFC WINDS OF 10-14 KT...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER DAYTIME GUSTS /UP TO 20 KT/...SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER TO NLY BY LATE THIS EVENING. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ UPDATED SHORT TERM/HYDROLOGY...MURRAY vt AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 800 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 .SHORT TERM UPDATE /REST OF TONIGHT/... QUICK FCST UPDATE SENT TO ACCOUNT FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING NORTH OF RIC EARLY THIS EVE. THIS PCPN IS ASSOCD WITH JET STREAK EJECTING WELL OUT AHEAD MAIN UPR LOW OVR IOWA/ILLINOIS BRDR. IR/WATER VAPOR SATL LOOPS SUGG A PERIOD OF CLEARING AFTER JET STREAK MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVE. ADDITIONAL PCPN SHUD BE MOVG IN LATER TNGT/EARLY MONDAY AS UPR MIDWEST CUTOFF BECOMES ABSORBED IN LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND UPR LOW MOVING UP INTO MARITIMES. THIS WILL AID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG SFC BNDRY DRAPED ACRS CNTRL MID ATLC REGION AND ENHANCE PCPN CHCS ON MONDAY. WILL NEED TO MASSAGE GRIDS TO REFLECT ABV TRENDS BUT GIST OF FCST UNCHANGED. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 355 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006) SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING BOUNDARY LOCATED S OF THE FA...EXTENDING FROM EWN TO NR RAH...AND MTV. NORTH AND EAST OF THAT BOUNDARY...WINDS WERE MAINLY NE...ALTHOUGH LIGHT...WITH DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 30S. SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 80S...WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S. RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW ONE AREA OF SHOWERS...ASSOC WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND NORTHEAST UPPER LOW...NOW CROSSING THE COAST...AND MOVING OUT TO SEA. NO THUNDER INDICATED WITH THIS FIRST BATCH...AS AMS STABLE...AND WITH A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER...AS INCIDATED BY RUC SOUNDINGS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS NOW MOVING THROUGH KY AND SRN WV...ASSOC WITH SFC WAVE...AND LOW LEVEL WAA. THIS SECOND SYSTEM PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. RIGHT NOW...ONGOING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW A BAND OF INCREASING UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY DEVELOPING N OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...SUGGESTING COULD SEE COME EXPANSION OF AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP E OF THE MTNS. AGAIN...THINKING MAINLY SHOWERS...IF ANYTHING...WITH THIS BATCH OF PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER FAR S AND SW ZONES. MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM...NOW CENTERED OVER IA...PROGGED TO ACCELERATE SEWD TONIGHT...AS IT ROTATES AROUND SOUTHERN FLANK OF NORTHEAST UPPER LOW. THIS SYSTEM TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND AGAIN CHANCES OF EMBEDDED THUNDER...DUE TO ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER SW SECTIONS. MODEL QPF SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF AN INCH OF RAIN WHERE THE BAND OF RAIN SETS UP...WITH MORE OF A WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF IN INCH A GOOD BET. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH...IF ANY...MD ERN SHORE COUNTIES WILL GET...AS...WITH THIS TYPE OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...LIKELY RAIN WILL HAVE A SHARP NORTHERN CUT OFF...AND THIS MAY BE SOUTH OF THOSE AREAS. FORCING...AND ASSOC PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY EVENING. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN TUE AND WED...WITH DRIER...COOLER AMS ADVECTING IN. THU...RIDGE SHIFTS E...AND SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT/TROUGH LNIGERS OVER THE FA FRI...WITH COLD FROPA SAT...THEN MAYBE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT ON SUN. OVERALL...THU THROUGH SAT PERIOD APPEAR A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED...AND WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT...AS TIMING OF FEATURES...AND STRENGTH OF FRONT AND ANY UPPER SUPPORT UNCERTAIN. AVIATION... VFR TO START FCST PRD WITH ONLY SCT LGT PCPN ARND RGN THIS EVE. EPCT LOWERING CIGS (MVFR) AND VSBYS BY 12Z AS WDSPRD PCPN OVRSPRDS RGN IN LGT NE WND FLOW. CIGS CONT TO LWR TO NEAR IFR BTWN 15-18Z MON IN RAIN AND MIST. MARINE... NO FLAGS IN SHORT TERM AS FLOW REMAINS LGT. INCRG GRDNT MON AS LOW PRS TRACKS S OF RGN RESULTS IN SCA FOR MOST MARINE AREAS. WNDS & SEAS BEGIN TO RELAX MON EVE...BUT THEN INCRS AGAIN BY 12Z TUE. THUS...SCA WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE IN THE SRN CHES BAY / CURRITUCK SND...BUT CONT SCA CSTL WTRS (MAINLY FOR SEAS) THRU 12Z TUE. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ632 FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM MONDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ633 FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658 FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM TUESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...CULLEN va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA 355 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING BOUNDARY LOCATED S OF THE FA...EXTENDING FROM EWN TO NR RAH...AND MTV. NORTH AND EAST OF THAT BOUNDARY...WINDS WERE MAINLY NE...ALTHOUGH LIGHT...WITH DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE 30S. SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 80S...WITH DEWPTS IN THE 50S. RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW ONE AREA OF SHOWERS...ASSOC WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND NORTHEAST UPPER LOW...NOW CROSSING THE COAST...AND MOVING OUT TO SEA. NO THUNDER INDICATED WITH THIS FIRST BATCH...AS AMS STABLE...AND WITH A DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER...AS INCIDATED BY RUC SOUNDINGS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS NOW MOVING THROUGH KY AND SRN WV...ASSOC WITH SFC WAVE...AND LOW LEVEL WAA. THIS SECOND SYSTEM PROGGED TO CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. RIGHT NOW...ONGOING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW A BAND OF INCREASING UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY DEVELOPING N OF THE SFC BOUNDARY...SUGGESTING COULD SEE COME EXPANSION OF AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP E OF THE MTNS. AGAIN...THINKING MAINLY SHOWERS...IF ANYTHING...WITH THIS BATCH OF PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT EMBEDDED THUNDER OVER FAR S AND SW ZONES. MORE IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM...NOW CENTERED OVER IA...PROGGED TO ACCELERATE SEWD TONIGHT...AS IT ROTATES AROUND SOUTHERN FLANK OF NORTHEAST UPPER LOW. THIS SYSTEM TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FEATURE...AND AGAIN CHANCES OF EMBEDDED THUNDER...DUE TO ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER SW SECTIONS. MODEL QPF SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF AN INCH OF RAIN WHERE THE BAND OF RAIN SETS UP...WITH MORE OF A WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF IN INCH A GOOD BET. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY TRAINING CONVECTION. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH...IF ANY...MD ERN SHORE COUNTIES WILL GET...AS...WITH THIS TYPE OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...LIKELY RAIN WILL HAVE A SHARP NORTHERN CUT OFF...AND THIS MAY BE SOUTH OF THOSE AREAS. FORCING...AND ASSOC PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST MONDAY EVENING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN TUE AND WED...WITH DRIER...COOLER AMS ADVECTING IN. THU...RIDGE SHIFTS E...AND SFC TROF MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT/TROUGH LNIGERS OVER THE FA FRI...WITH COLD FROPA SAT...THEN MAYBE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT ON SUN. OVERALL...THU THROUGH SAT PERIOD APPEAR A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED...AND WARRANT LOW CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT...AS TIMING OF FEATURES...AND STRENGTH OF FRONT AND ANY UPPER SUPPORT UNCERTAIN. && .AVIATION... VFR TO START FCST PRD WITH ONLY SCT LGT PCPN ARND RGN THIS EVE. EPCT LOWERING CIGS (MVFR) AND VSBYS BY 12Z AS WDSPRD PCPN OVRSPRDS RGN IN LGT NE WND FLOW. CIGS CONT TO LWR TO NEAR IFR BTWN 15-18Z MON IN RAIN AND MIST. && .MARINE... NO FLAGS IN SHORT TERM AS FLOW REMAINS LGT. INCRG GRDNT MON AS LOW PRS TRACKS S OF RGN RESULTS IN SCA FOR MOST MARINE AREAS. WNDS & SEAS BEGIN TO RELAX MON EVE...BUT THEN INCRS AGAIN BY 12Z TUE. THUS...SCA WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE IN THE SRN CHES BAY / CURRITUCK SND...BUT CONT SCA CSTL WTRS (MAINLY FOR SEAS) THRU 12Z TUE. .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. NC...NONE. VA...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ632 FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM MONDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ633 FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658 FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM TUESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...REILLY LONG TERM...REILLY AVIATION/MARINE...44 va AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 128 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006 .AVIATION... AREA OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES AT BOTH SITES. MDT RAIN APPEARS TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO KFWA CLOSER TO BETTER MSTR AND BOUNDARY. EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO HAVE WENT PREDOMINATE PRECIP. HOWEVER...CIGS/VSBY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE IMPACTED INTO THE MVFR RANGE SO WILL HOLD OFF ON GOING ANY LOWER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS AS MVFR/IFR CIGS SEEN UPSTREAM...BUT WITH LOW TRACKING MORE SE THAN EAST...THINK KSBN WILL SKIRT THE LOWEST CIGS. COULD BE A CLOSE CALL AT KFWA. HAVE KEPT THUNDER OUT OF KFWA BUT LEFT CB MENTION IN AS UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSER CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF STORM. CLEARING LINE WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH SLOWER PROGRESS OF SYSTEM...THINK CLEARING WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO GET IN SO HAVE BACKED OFF ON CLEARING AN HOUR OR 2. AFTER THAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .UPDATE... ANOTHER UPDATE SENT TO ADJUST POPS AND ENDING OF PRECIP BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW BECOMING MORE OBVIOUS SETTING UP EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM BENTON HARBOR TO WARSAW TO VAN WERT. WHILE RADAR RETURNS HAVE DIMINISHED IN SOME AREAS...NAM12 HOLD ONTO DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z MON. ALSO AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER EAST OF UPPER LOW. WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION STILL SHOWING ON WATER VAPOR AND GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT...WOULD EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE. WHILE THE PRECIP MAY BE MORE SCT IN NATURE IN FAR SW PARTS...SUSPECT RADAR MAY FILL IN SOMEWHAT AS UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER. ALSO AS BAND OF RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN LK MI INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MOVES BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...MANY AREAS NOT SEEING RAIN SHOULD SEE IT RETURN. AS A RESULT...HAVE WENT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOL THUNDER IN SW 2/3RDS OF CWA. IN NE 1/3RD OR SO...SHOWERS/RAIN HAS ENDED WITH HILLSDALE AND COLDWATER NOW SHOWING AT BEST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. HAVE WENT WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO CHC POPS AND THEN DRY FOR THESE AREAS. WITH RAIN/CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER AND UPSTREAM TEMPS...HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR 2 IN SW COUNTIES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 234 PM EDT) SHORT TERM... QUITE CONCERNED W/ONGOING DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IN ABSENCE OF CLD CVR DOWNSTREAM OF INTENSE CIRCULATION DRIFTING OUT OF IA. WARM FNT CONTS TO MIX RAPIDLY NWD IN RESPONSE TO INSOLATION AND STG WAA AHD OF SFC LOW OVR WRN IL. 12Z GUIDANCE NOT MUCH HELP W/PLACEMENT OF KEY SYNOPTIC FTRS W/ONGOING NOD GIVEN TO SHORT TERM RUC W/HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN BTR OVERALL. GIVEN BURGEONING DESTABILIZATION NOW EVIDENT ACRS WARM SECTOR AND STEEP EML IN PLACE ALOFT W/MODEST DEEP LYR SHEAR...SVR OUTBREAK W/DISCRETE TORNADO RISK LOOKING MORE LIKELY ACRS SWRN CWA (INDIANA COUNTIES) THIS EVENING...W/CONV CLUSTER OVR CNTRL IL GOING UPSCALE AND POSSIBLE ADDNL DVLPMNT EASTWARD OVR CNTRL/NRN INDIANA N OF WARM FNT. WILL MAKE NECESSARY CHGS TO PRIMARILY WX GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH GOING POPS LOOK IN LINE. LONG TERM... THE FORECAST FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY TIME FRAME IS CURRENTLY DRY...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE COULD BE TWO DIFFERENT TIMES THAT IT COULD PRECIPITATE. GFS AND THE GEM ARE BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS SHOWING A MORE DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH (WHICH IS ATTACHED TO A LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA) THAN PAST RUNS HAVE. THE DGEX IS ALSO BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN THROUGH...BUT IS ABOUT ONE TO TWO FORECAST PERIODS LATER WITH THE RAIN. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THAT THIS SHOT OF RAIN WILL BE WORKING AGAINST. SO WILL LEAVE DRY AT THE MOMENT. ABOUT THE ONLY OTHER TIME THERE MIGHT HAVE TO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHEN THAT SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH. ONE THING GOING TO MAKE ME KEEP THIS TIME FRAME ALSO DRY FOR THE TIME BEING IS THAT THE GFS OVER THE LAST TWO RUNS MOVED THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES CLOSER AND IS INTRODUCING QPF QUICKER NOW THAN PREVIOUSLY. GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER...AND AT 18Z FRIDAY FOR EXAMPLE...MOVES THIS UPPER LOW QUITE A HUGE DISTANCE. NOT GOING TO ADD IN RAIN YET WITH NO CONSISTENCY YET. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES EITHER...TEMPS STILL LOOKING ON TRACK. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...FISHER SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....98 in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 1239 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006 .UPDATE... ANOTHER UPDATE SENT TO ADJUST POPS AND ENDING OF PRECIP BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. DEFORMATION ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NOW BECOMING MORE OBVIOUS SETTING UP EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM BENTON HARBOR TO WARSAW TO VAN WERT. WHILE RADAR RETURNS HAVE DIMINISHED IN SOME AREAS...NAM12 HOLD ONTO DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z MON. ALSO AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER EAST OF UPPER LOW. WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION STILL SHOWING ON WATER VAPOR AND GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT...WOULD EXPECT PRECIP TO CONTINUE. WHILE THE PRECIP MAY BE MORE SCT IN NATURE IN FAR SW PARTS...SUSPECT RADAR MAY FILL IN SOMEWHAT AS UPPER LOW GETS CLOSER. ALSO AS BAND OF RAIN EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN LK MI INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS MOVES BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT...MANY AREAS NOT SEEING RAIN SHOULD SEE IT RETURN. AS A RESULT...HAVE WENT WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOL THUNDER IN SW 2/3RDS OF CWA. IN NE 1/3RD OR SO...SHOWERS/RAIN HAS ENDED WITH HILLSDALE AND COLDWATER NOW SHOWING AT BEST SOME HIGH CLOUDS. HAVE WENT WITH A QUICK CUTOFF TO CHC POPS AND THEN DRY FOR THESE AREAS. WITH RAIN/CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER AND UPSTREAM TEMPS...HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS A DEGREE OR 2 IN SW COUNTIES. && .AVIATION... A LINE OF STORMS WENT THROUGH SBN EARLIER...BUT THE RAIN/STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING TO REACH SBN AND FWA. MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS ARE HEADING TOWARDS SBN WITH SOME SCATTERED T-STORMS. TIMED THE RAIN AND STORMS AT FWA FOR A LITTLE BIT LATER WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. ON SATELLITE AND LIGHTENING OBSERVATIONS..CAN SEE A SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SOUTH AND EASTWARD. SO FORECASTING THE INDIANA/MICHIGAN BORDER TO BE ROUGHLY THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN/STORMS AND THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. A LITTLE BIT LATER TIMING FOR FWA WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING...BUT ROUGHLY AFTER MIDNIGHT RAIN SHOULD BE OVER AND CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. ACCORDING TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY TIME HEIGHTS...THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT FOR TOMORROW...SO LEFT THE SKC ALONE. && .PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 234 PM EDT) SHORT TERM... QUITE CONCERNED W/ONGOING DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IN ABSENCE OF CLD CVR DOWNSTREAM OF INTENSE CIRCULATION DRIFTING OUT OF IA. WARM FNT CONTS TO MIX RAPIDLY NWD IN RESPONSE TO INSOLATION AND STG WAA AHD OF SFC LOW OVR WRN IL. 12Z GUIDANCE NOT MUCH HELP W/PLACEMENT OF KEY SYNOPTIC FTRS W/ONGOING NOD GIVEN TO SHORT TERM RUC W/HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN BTR OVERALL. GIVEN BURGEONING DESTABILIZATION NOW EVIDENT ACRS WARM SECTOR AND STEEP EML IN PLACE ALOFT W/MODEST DEEP LYR SHEAR...SVR OUTBREAK W/DISCRETE TORNADO RISK LOOKING MORE LIKELY ACRS SWRN CWA (INDIANA COUNTIES) THIS EVENING...W/CONV CLUSTER OVR CNTRL IL GOING UPSCALE AND POSSIBLE ADDNL DVLPMNT EASTWARD OVR CNTRL/NRN INDIANA N OF WARM FNT. WILL MAKE NECESSARY CHGS TO PRIMARILY WX GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH GOING POPS LOOK IN LINE. LONG TERM... THE FORECAST FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY TIME FRAME IS CURRENTLY DRY...AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER...SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THERE COULD BE TWO DIFFERENT TIMES THAT IT COULD PRECIPITATE. GFS AND THE GEM ARE BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS SHOWING A MORE DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH (WHICH IS ATTACHED TO A LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA) THAN PAST RUNS HAVE. THE DGEX IS ALSO BRINGING A SHOT OF RAIN THROUGH...BUT IS ABOUT ONE TO TWO FORECAST PERIODS LATER WITH THE RAIN. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THAT THIS SHOT OF RAIN WILL BE WORKING AGAINST. SO WILL LEAVE DRY AT THE MOMENT. ABOUT THE ONLY OTHER TIME THERE MIGHT HAVE TO BE A CHANCE OF RAIN INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHEN THAT SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH. ONE THING GOING TO MAKE ME KEEP THIS TIME FRAME ALSO DRY FOR THE TIME BEING IS THAT THE GFS OVER THE LAST TWO RUNS MOVED THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW ABOUT 150 MILES CLOSER AND IS INTRODUCING QPF QUICKER NOW THAN PREVIOUSLY. GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AT THIS TIME TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER...AND AT 18Z FRIDAY FOR EXAMPLE...MOVES THIS UPPER LOW QUITE A HUGE DISTANCE. NOT GOING TO ADD IN RAIN YET WITH NO CONSISTENCY YET. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES EITHER...TEMPS STILL LOOKING ON TRACK. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...FISHER SHORT TERM...66 LONG TERM....98 AVIATION...98 in AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 240 AM MDT MON APR 17 2006 .DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY...AND WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH MOST OF NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER...UPPER FLOW STARTS SLOWING UP ALONG THE EAST COAST AS A RESULT OF A STUBBORN TROUGH. INCOMING WESTERN TROUGH LOOKING A BIT DISORGANIZED WITH SEVERAL PIECES IN AND JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. AT JET LEVEL...MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONG WITH SPEEDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE INCOMING TROUGH. BASED ON THE RENO NEVADA 250 MB WINDS... THE GFS IS CATCHING THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE BOTTOM/SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AT MID LEVELS...THROUGH 06Z MODELS HAVING THEIR DIFFICULTIES WITH INCOMING TROUGH. BASED ON SATELLITE...MODELS LOOK TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. SATELLITE SHOWED THAT RUC AND ECMWF MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON IT. OTHER MODELS TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE NAM THE WORST. HEIGHT ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE ECMWF/UKMET ARE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS. WITH TIME THEIR DIFFERENCES WITH HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST THE SYSTEM GOES. IN GENERAL WITH TIME...THE ECMWF/NAM ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST THAN THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN. OF THOSE THREE THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH... THE CANADIAN IS IN THE MIDDLE AND THE UKMET SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH. CONSIDERING THAT THE EASTERN RIDGE/TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND BE FAIRLY STRONG AND GOING BY EXPECTED JET STRUCTURE...WOULD BELIEVE THAT THE ECMWF/NAM ARE TOO FAST AND TOO FAR SOUTH. LIKE THE COMBINATION OF THE FURTHER NORTH GFS AND SLOWER UKMET. AT LOW LEVELS...MODELS NOT TOO DIFFERENT. MODELS ALSO INITIALIZED WELL WITH TEMPERATURES WITH THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF THE BEST. CONSIDERING THE ABOVE REASONING...ANALYSIS...AND BIASES...WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND UKMET FOR THE MOST PART. TODAY/TONIGHT...INITIAL PROBLEM WILL BE HOW MUCH STRATUS/FOG WILL MAKE IT INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT TO MOVE TOO FAR TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR AS LONG AS POSSIBLE BEFORE MAKE A DECISION ON CLOUD COVER/FOG IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS UPSTREAM PER SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUN...AND AM WONDERING HOW MUCH THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST COMPONENT ON SURFACE WINDS WILL HOLD BACK TEMPERATURES. WILL TEND TO GRADIENT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMEST SOUTHWEST TO COOLEST NORTHEAST CONSIDERING THE SURFACE WIND DIRECTION. STRONGEST JET WINDS WORK UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND WILL HAVE THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET NEAR THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TOO HAPPEN. RIGHT REAR QUADRANT STAYS OVER THE NORTH THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THEN JET SEGMENT CONSOLIDATES OVER THE WESTERN THIRD BY 12Z. MOISTURE AND LIFT DO NOT COINCIDE WITH MOST OF THE AREA GETTING DRY SLOTTED. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN YUMA COUNTY AND PULLED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE BACK INTO THAT AREA. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...JET AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE GFS KEEPS THE BEST JET LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WHERE THE UKMET BRINGS IT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN NOT SURE THAT WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE...ESPECIALLY AT THE SURFACE. MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY SLOTTED ALOFT BUT HAVE PRETTY STRONG DYNAMICS/COLD POOL ALOFT PUSHING THROUGH. ONCE AGAIN PULLED THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NORTH WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE. WHAT PRECIPITATION THERE IS...LOOKS TO BE DONE BY THE NIGHT. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OCCUR... ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND IN THE WEST. GUIDANCE IS CLOSE TO SLIGHLY ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WOULD SAY BEST CHANCE RIGHT NOW WOULD BE IN THE WEST. THE MAY LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DO NOT HAVE GOOD FEEL FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES. LOOK TO HAVE SOME SUN BY AFTERNOON WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING WINDS COUNTERACTING THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. WILL PROBABLY STICK CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE. WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY WITH A COUPLE OF UNCERTAINTIES. FIRST...GFS BLOWS UP THE JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES DURING THE DAY WITH A DECENT RIGHT REAR QUADRANT. ALSO SOUTHERN EDGE OF UPPER COLD POOL IS NEAR THIS AREA AS WELL. WILL LEAVE DRY BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...WILL HAVE CLOUDS AROUND THAT COULD MESS UP THE TEMPERATURES. ALSO THE MET/NAM HAVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS AGAIN DURING THE DAY WITH THE OTHER MODELS ARE LESS. SINCE BELIEVE THE NAM IS DOING THE POOREST ALOFT WILL DISCOUNT THIS STRONGER WIND SOLUTION FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER...BELIEVE THAT WILL PROBABLY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AGAIN SINCE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE THAT VERY FAR AWAY. WILL HAVE THE SAME BALANCE OF DOWNSLOPE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION AGAIN WITH SOME CLOUD COVER. WILL TEND TO GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE GUIDANCE. NO CHANGES PLANNED IN THE 4 TO 7 PERIOD AT THIS TIME. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$ BULLER ks AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 449 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006 .DISCUSSION... STACKED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST IN CONTINUES TO CHURN TO THE ESE. SPAWNED MCS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WANED CONSIDERABLY AS IT ENTERED OUR CWA. CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WERE SPARED COMPLETELY FROM THE RAIN. HAVE LARGE GRADIENT OF POPS TO COVER THIS ACTIVITY EXITING FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT A LARGE GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS TN BORDER COUNTIES STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WILL SEE AT LEAST UPPER 70S IF NOT LOWER 80S...WHILE THE BLUEGRASS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS CLOUDS STICK AROUND AND NORTHERLY WINDS ENGAGE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS LEFTOVER BOUNDARY RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. GFS HAS WAFFLED THE MOST WITH TIMING THE PRECIP...HOWEVER WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW A GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP FOR WEDNESDAY...DECIDED TO INCLUDE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POP AS A COMPROMISE. LEFT THE REST OF THE FORECAST INTACT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 1108 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 HAVE BACKED OFF ON WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE LEFT THE FORECAST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. REMOVED EVENING WORDING FROM THE ZFP. 703 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...PRECIP APPEARS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY TONIGHT/MONDAY IN OUR FAR SW COUNTIES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS IN THE SW...WHILE MAINTAINING CATEGORICAL POPS IN OUR NE COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON CLOUD COVER A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. IN ALL AREAS...HAVE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED. 350 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A DECENT SHOT OF RAINFALL TO AREAS TEASED BY RAIN CHANCES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. COMPLICATED SETUP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PRESENTLY WITH A FILLING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER IOWA TRAILING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO ARKANSAS. A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS INDIANA AND NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY EASTWARD INTO THE VIRGINIAS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH 80S JUST TO THE SOUTH. A LINE OF STORMS WHICH FORMED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS JUST ABOUT DIED AS IT ENTERED OUR FORECAST AREA THANKS TO A DOME OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR VISIBLE ON THE KOHX AND KFFC 12Z/16 SOUNDINGS. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS EVEN MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S AT KLOZ EARLIER. STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER KENTUCKY TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AND SURFACE LOW NEARS. THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE COVERED BY A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. EARLIER CONVECTION HAS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HELD TEMPS DOWN SO INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL PRESENTLY BUT THIS IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO DECENT LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SPEED OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 50-KTS COMPARED TO 35 TO 40-KTS ON THE GFS. LATE PANELS OF THE RUC HINT TOWARD THE NAM SCENARIO AND WITH SUCH SPEED SHEAR AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EVIDENT AS WELL...THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS JUSTIFIED. THE LOW TRACK...SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SHOULD KEEP THE MOST PRECIP OVER OUR NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS IN THIS AREA EXPECTING OVER A HALF INCH OF TOTAL QPF. EXPECT POPS AND QPF TO TAPER DOWN OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH ANTICIPATED SOUTHWEST OF I-75. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS LOOKED REASONABLE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE LOWER 60S. EXPECT CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN MONDAY AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE COOLER MET NUMBERS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW FAST SKIES CLEAR BUT EXPECT A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT WITH LOW 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. RIDGE ALIGNED FROM EAST TEXAS NORTH TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL PROVIDE FOR A QUIET AND DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SQUASHING THE UPPER RIDGE. FOLLOWED THE 00Z/16 ECMWF AND NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST AS GFS HAS SHOWN QUITE A BIT OF RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH REGARDS TO INITIAL FRONT SENT EAST BY THE PLAINS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH BLOCKED PATTERN AND SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...IT/S DOUBTFUL FRONT WILL BE SO QUICK. ECMWF/NCEP ENSEMBLES TRACK FRONT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND STALL IT OUT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS SURFACE RIDGING OVER FLORIDA BLOCKS IT/S PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD. WAVES FORM ON THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING PERIODIC BOUTS OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS SET-UP WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR NOW WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND IT APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND SO WILL GO WITH A DRY AND MILD SUNDAY FOR NOW. MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER EXPECTED MAX VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WERE LOWERED SOME TOWARD CLIMO TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. KEPT BASICALLY WITH PERSISTENCE FOR MIN TEMPS. 1230 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 CONTINUE TO MONITOR STORMS MOVING E ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY. CURRENT TIMING WOULD BRING THESE INTO JKL/S AREA AROUND 1730Z. STILL EXPECT A DECREASING TREND AS THESE MOVE EAST...AND STILL NOT CONVINCED THEY WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT TRENDS HAVE DECIDED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY. 1049 AM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 AT 14Z STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PART OF FORECAST AREA. CONVECTION IN WESTERN KY HEADED ENE. NORTHERN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS SHOWN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND...BUT SOUTHERN PORTION STILL STRONG. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW CAP 800 TO 850 MB...WITH 20C TEMPERATURE AT 850 AT OHX. OHX SOUNDING AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY MID LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AS IS FOR TODAY...WITH CHANCE NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTH...AND NO MENTION IN SOUTH. IF CONVECTION OVER WESTERN KY HOLDS TOGETHER AND LOOKS TO THREATEN THE SOUTH WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED. BASED ON YESTERDAY/S HIGHS THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD IN MOST AREAS. HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES ON THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS THOUGH BASED ON VERY WARM SOUNDINGS ABOVE 925 AT OHX AND CURRENT OBSERVED TEMPERATURES. BLACK MOUNTAIN ALREADY TO 68 DEGREES AT 14Z AND HAD A HIGH YESTERDAY OF 81. UPDATED FORECAST SUITE WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ GEOGERIAN ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 220 AM CDT MON APR 17 2006 .DISCUSSION... LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RH FIELDS ACTUALLY INCREASING BEHIND IT. LOW CLOUDS CIRCULATING AROUND THE DEEP UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA MAY BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE...WITH A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE THE COOLEST WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. THIS IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT NOT AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS. VERY INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS ANOTHER POTENT UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A GREATER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN BEARS WATCHING AS MID 60S DEW POINTS ALREADY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. RETURN FLOW BY THE LATEST RUC INDICATES THAT 60 DEW POINTS WILL BE AS CLOSE AS NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY LATER TODAY. HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ABOUT MID TO UPPER 60 DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE OZARKS THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...HOWEVER DUE TO THE DEEP SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...LOWER 60S IS A GOOD BIT LATER TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MEAN LAYER CAPES OF 2000~3000 J/KG BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE NUMBERS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER IF UPPER 60S DEW POINTS MANAGE TO SPREAD INTO THE OZARKS. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS VERY STRONG IN TERMS OF SHEAR PARAMETERS. THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SEE LATEST SPC DY2. WILL HIGHLIGHT MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BASED ON THE LATEST SPC GUIDANCE AND 06Z MODEL DATA. ONCE THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP THIS REGION RAIN FREE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH THIS COLD FRONT MOVES...WHERE THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TRANSLATES EASTWARD...AND HOW ANOTHER SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SCALE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE OZARKS FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE IMPACT IF WE GET A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL BY LATE IN THE WEEK...AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. JLT && .AVIATION... FOR 06Z TAFS...HAVE KEPT VFR CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOWER CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF KSGF AND KJLN TAF SITES AS ANTICYCLONIC UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LEFT 6SM VISIBILITY IN AT KSGF AS TEMP/DEWPT SPREADS TIGHTEN UP TO JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES. TERRY && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ WFO SGF mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 603 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...TSTMS MVS THRU NERN SXNS LT LAST EVE. FRNT APPRS TO BE LCTD S OF HAT THRU S OF ISO ARND MIDNGT. FNT WL MEANDER ARND THE CWA THRU THE NGTTM HRS. NOT TOO MUCH UPR SPPRT OR OMEGA EVIDENT ON RUC OR PNAM THRU AM HRS. BY MIDDAY UPR WV WL DROP THRU UPR TROF INTO NC...PUSHG FRNT S. MAX ENERGY ON PNAM AND ETA12 IS TO OUR W ASSCTD WI SFC WV. ACTVTY WL BE N OF FRNT WI MAX LIFT AND UPR LVL ENERGY. NAM NOT SHOWG TOO MUCH INSTABILITY IN MHX CWA...GFS A LTL MR XCITD ABT THUNDER PROB. SPC HAS US IN SLGT RISK. FCST SNDGS SHOWG DECENT SPEED AND DIR SHEAR...WBZ ARND 10000 FT. WND RIGHT OFF SFC NOT TOO IMPRSV BUT STRGR WND HIER UP HV THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DWN. WL CONT LIKELY PROBABILITY WI FROPA...BUT WL REWORD WX TO HV SHWRS WI SCTD TSTMS. FRNT AND WX DROP S OF AREA AFT SS TNGT WI NLY WND OVR CWA AND NW FLO ALFT. TEMPS TO BE TRICKY TDY AS THEY DEPEND ON FRONTAL POSN. PNAM PUTS FRNT THRU MOST OF THE CWA WI XCPT OF CRYSTAL CST BY 18Z. GFS HAS IT MR ARND HAT AND STRUNG TO THE W AT 18Z. MDL COMPS SHOWGS COMPARABLE INITIALIZATIONS WI ALL 3 MDLS. WL USE LAMP AS GUIDANCE ON TEMPS. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...NLY FLO AT SFC AND NW FLO ALFT WL CONT OVR AREA TUE AS RDGS BLD. MDLS SHWG SFC SYS DROPG INTO SRN STRM WED...INTO 5H RDG. GFS SHOWG SFC BNDRY INTO CWA THU...BUT AGAIN IN 5H RDG PATTERN AND SFC FLO NOT BRINGG MSTR INTO AREA. NXT BEST SHOT OF PCPN WL BE LT FRI OR EARLY SAT AS UPR SYS RIDES UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPR RDG...WI GFS SHOWG FROPA SUN MORN. WL HOLD OFF ON ANY PCPN MNTN IN XTND TIL LT FRI OR EARLY SAT. && .FIRE WEATHER...MIN RH TDY WL BE NO LWR THAN 40. WND WL BE FAIRLY LGT. SHWR ACTVTY IN N LAST EVE HV DAMPENED FUELS. SHWR ACTVTY XPCTD TDY WL ALSO DAMPEN FUELS. WL NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE STATEMENTS. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AN E-W STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A S/W APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SFC WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY OVER THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTH BY EVENING. ADDED MENTION OF WIND SHEAR TO TERMINALS THROUGH 09Z THIS MORNING AS SFC WINDS LESS THAN 10KT WITH 30-35 KT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 1500 FT AS PER MHX VAD. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE OVER THE TERMINALS AFT 19Z WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN AND NEAR CONVECTION. MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS WITH -RA EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE EVENING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. && .MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE SOUNDS WILL DROP OUT OF THE ADVISORY AROUND 06Z TUE. EARLY THIS MORNING AN AN E-W STATIONARY BISECTS THE CENTRAL WATERS NEAR CAPE HATTERAS. WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE E/NE 10 TO 15 KT WHILE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS AOB 15 KT. A S/W TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ON THE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NC BY MIDDAY. THE SFC WAVE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING N/NE OVER THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS 20 TO 25KT AREAWIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD 6-8 FT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS WITH 3 TO 5 FT OVER THE SOUTHERNMOST WATERS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON TUE AS GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE WATERS WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED WED AND THU WITH WINDS AOB 15 KT. A PERSISTENT NE LONG PERIOD SWELL ON BACK SIDE OF DEEP SFC LOW EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 4-5 FT OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS WITH 2 TO 4 FT SEAS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS WED AND THU WITH LIGHTER SEAS ON FRI. WILL GO WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS NORTH OF HATTERAS FOR TODAY WITH A MODERATE SOUTH OF HATTERAS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE 20 TO 25 KT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THIS COMBINED WITH AN EASTERLY SWELL COMPONENT (2FT/9SEC) WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG RIPS ALONG AREA BEACHES. ALTHOUGH AREA BEACHES SOUTH OF HATTERAS WILL SEE LOW RISK CRITERIA MOST OF THE DAY...A SHORT WINDOW WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MODERATE RIPS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE 15 TO 20 KT PRIOR TO WIND SHIFT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ130-135 FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM TUESDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ150-152-154-156 FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM TUESDAY. ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ158 FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM TUESDAY. ...HIGH RISK OR RIP CURRENTS FOR NCZ103 FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 2 AM TUESDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...GC LONG TERM...GC AVIATION...WINGENROTH MARINE...WINGENROTH nc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO 0140 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006 .AVIATION (06Z-06Z)... LOW PRES MOVING INTO SRN IN WL SHIFT TO WV ARND 12Z. REGIONAL RADAR CONTINUING TO SHOW A BAND OF SHRA OVER ROUGHLY SRN 1/2 OF AREA. PRECIP HAS BEEN DIMINISHING PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND KFDY AND KMFD NOW BOTH VFR. EXPECT SHRA TO CONTINUE DISSIPATE AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NE. MODEL SOUNDINGS VERY DRY AFTER DAYBREAK AND SKIES SHOULD BE SKC BY MID MORNING. BIG STORY LATER IN PERIOD WILL BE WINDS WHICH WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE NE. && .SHORT TERM UPDATE (TONIGHT)... ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE OVERRUNNING / LIMITED CAPE ENVIRONMENT THIS EVG. NORTHERLY PROGRESSION IS LIMITED BY A REINFORCING NELY FLOW DRY AIR WITH DEWPTS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. NAM12 SHOWS THE NELY FLOW OF DRY AIR DEEPENING ACRS THE AREA AFTER THE 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME AND THUS SHIFTS THE CONVECTION/OVRRNG RAIN SOUTH. SINCE LOW LVLS NOW SATURATED ACRS THE SE HAVE UPDATED TO JUST GO WITH CATIGORICAL WORDING INITIALLY AND THEN WORD IN DECREASING CLOUDINESS LATE AS THE DRY AIR MOVES IN. NO OTHER CHGS ATTM. && .SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)... LOW-MID LVLS ARE VERY DRY ACROSS THE REGION AS NELY FLOW AT 850MB CONTINUES. RADAR MOSAIC HAS SHOWN RETURNS ALL DAY ACROSS NRN OH...BUT NOTHING HAS REACHED THE GROUND DUE TO RH VALUES AT 850MB LESS THAN 30 PCT. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE HAS SET UP FROM THE SFC LOW IN IOWA ACROSS IN/IL AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. IT IS VERY STABLE N OF THE FRONT WITH DWPTS IN THE LOWER 40S AND LI/S WELL ABOVE ZERO...WHILE S OF THE FRONT IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH LI/S WELL BELOW ZERO. THE GOING FCST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK. DESPITE THE FACT THAT FRONTOGENESIS AND UPWARD MOTION INCREASES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SRN PART OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...LOWEST 5000 FT REMAINS VERY DRY IN THE NELY FLOW. EVEN THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE WARM FRONT WILL MAKE IT TO ABOUT DAYTON WITH THE LOW TRACK OVR SRN OH...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP NRN CUTOFF TO PCPN TONIGHT. WL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A TOL TO CAK LINE TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IN REALITY IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SOUTH/WEST OF A FDY TO MT VERNON LINE WHERE 850MB FLOW TRIES TO TURN SWLY PERHAPS ALLOWING JUST ENOUGH LOW LVL MOISTURE TO SNEAK IN FOR A PERIOD TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IT WOULD ALSO NOT TOTALLY SURPRISE ME IF THE WHOLE AREA STAYS DRY TONIGHT BUT WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER NRN IL/SRN WI AND EVEN INTO NRN IN IT WOULD NOT BE WISE TO REMOVE POPS AS THE NRN EDGE OF AN MCS COULD CLIP THE FAR S. AS FOR THE CLE AREA...WL GO WITH A CHC OF EVENING SPRINKLES INSTEAD OF SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS SIMPLY DUE TO THE DRY AIR. WL ALSO CONTINUE WITH CHC OF THUNDER AS WELL TONIGHT FROM FDY TO MT VERNON. ALTHOUGH SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS NIL... MID LVL LAPSE RATES DO RISE TO AROUND 7.0 C/KM AND THE 15Z RUC DOES SUGGEST ABOUT 500 J/KG ELEVATED CAPE VALUES AT FDY THIS EVENING. DOUBTFUL ANY STORM WILL BECOME STRONG ACROSS THE SW AS THE DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP ANY STORM IN CHECK. THE GFS AND NAM...AS WELL AS MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS SKIES BECOMING SUNNY TMRW MRNG. ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT COULD BE NR LAKE ERIE WHERE NELY FLOW COMBINED WITH COLD 850MB TEMPS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...EXPECT THESE TO BE SCT AT MOST WITH VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE SO MOSTLY SUNNY SHOULD STILL WORK. ALTHOUGH THE NELY FLOW AND COLD 850MB TEMPS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL...THE SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP OUT DESPITE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS. WL GO WITH THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME FROST MON NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN NW PA AND IN INTERIOR SHELTEED LOCATIONS OF N-CENTRAL OH. CONTINUED MOSTLY SUNNY TUE AND PROBABLY WED...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLDS AHD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPS ON WED SHOULD RISE INTO THE MID-UPR 60S...WITH EVEN A FEW 70S SOUTH WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING TO +8C BY EVENING. && .LONG TERM(WED NIGHT-SUNDAY)... THE GFS STILL WANTS TO BRING IN PCPN LATE WED NIGHT...BUT WITH THE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE AND THE RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER WRN PA AT 12Z THU...AM THINKING THAT ANY PCPN WL BE DELAYED UNTIL THU AND EVEN THAT PCPN SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AT BEST WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO VERY DRY AIR. BEST PCPN CHANCES MAY BE FRI AFTN INTO SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THRU THE LAKES. IN GENERAL...HPC LIKES THE ECMWF NORTHERN SOLN WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE BLOCKING PATTERN. THIS WILL KEEP US ON THE WARM SIDE AT LEAST THRU THU. WILL RAISE POPS TO 40 PCT FRI AND FRI NIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT. LOOKS LIKE THE UPR LOW WILL CAMP OUT OVER THE EAST FOR THE WKND. ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE AN ALL WKND RAIN EVENT TO SAY THE LEAST...IT WOULD SEEM THAT WITH COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THE ENTIRE AREA WILL NEED AT LEAST A CHC OF SHOWERS THRU THE WKND. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED FCST WILL FEATURE CHC POPS EACH DAY...BUT OVERALL THERE SHOULD BE PERIODS OF DRY WX. JUST TOO TOUGH TO PIN DOWN THOSE PERIODS RIGHT NOW. WL GO A LITTLE WARMER THAN GFSX MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE WARM 850MB TEMPS FROM THE EC MODEL. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. PA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM UPDATE...TK SHORT TERM...MRD LONG TERM...MRD AVIATION...KUBINA oh AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 251 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006 .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE NAM...GFS AND RUC ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE VORT MAX ACROSS KENTUCKY DURING THE MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING IT ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND BRUSHING OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE MID DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH DURING THE DAY WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 60 RANGE SOUTH OF THE ADVANCING FRONT AND CAPES ABOVE 1000 OVER LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85. SPC HAS POSTED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FOR OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES...GENERALLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 FOR STORM COMPLEX THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA. WITH WET BULB ZERO BEING IN THE 8500 TO 9500 RANGE...HAIL IS A CONCERN AS WELL AS DELTA THETA-E SHOWING DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH EXPECTED ORGANIZED CONVECTION. AS THE FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE AND MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE COAST AT THE DAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT OVER FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA ON TUESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AND INTO AT LEAST MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT. MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD ON POPS AND WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS A GREATER CHANCE IS WARRENTED AT LEAST FOR THE WESTERN AREAS. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO NEW ENGLAND THU THROUGH SUN. ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS LARGER SCALE VORTEX WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LEAD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU SHOULD WASH OUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ALONG THE DECAYING BOUNDARY. THE MOST PROMINENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD CROSS THE REGION DAYTIME SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AXIS...AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE REFLECTION. A STRONG 850 MB JETLET COULD TRAVERSE THE REGION ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH DEEPER LAYER DRYING ALREADY IN PLACE. && .AVIATION... LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH SUNRISE. WINDS ARE ABOUT 30 KTS FROM 240 DEGREES 1000 FEET OFF THE GROUND AND 40 KTS FROM 260 DEGREES AT 2000 FEET. HOWEVER...MOST SITES REMAIN MIXED AT THE SURFACE...SO THE ABSOLUTE WIND CHANGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GROUP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER OF OF THE WEST TODAY...THEN QUICKLY TURN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AS A POTENT BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SO WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF CROSS WINDS BY MID AFTERNOON AT MANY TAF SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY DEEP MIXING LATER IN THE DAY...SO WE WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR A FEW CROSSWIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE UPSTATE TAF SITES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOOKS AS IF KCLT WL SEE A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 20 AND 22 UTC WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. AS FOR THE THREAT OF CONVECTION...THE NAM DEVELOPS A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGH INSTABILITY RIGHT ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE A CB GROUP IN THE TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXITS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN THE VCNTY OF KCLT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BEGINNING AROUND 17 UTC. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION OVER THE UPSTATE...BUT KAVL MAY ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...NONE. NC...NONE. SC...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DEO LONG TERM...BPM AVIATION...BPM sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI 315 AM CDT MON APR 17 2006 .SHORT TERM...TODAY/TONIGHT/TUESDAY. HUDSON HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE REGIONS WEATHER TODAY WITH CLEAR DRY CONDITIONS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POTENTIAL OF LOWER HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND AMOUNT OF WIND MIXING DOWN FOR GUSTS. GUID MODEL DEWPONTS INITIALIZING A BIT HIGH...AND TEMPS A BIT LOW DUE TO WINDS STAYING UP EARLY THIS AM. DO NOTE RUC H8 MODEL WINDS TO 25 KTS AT 18Z TODAY SO WILL MENTION SOME WIND GUSTS TODAY IN SUBSIDENT AIR MASS. WILL NOT NEED A COOLER BY THE LAKE PHRASE SINCE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PENETRATE WELL INTO THE EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES. SUNDAYS HIGHTS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER THE DOOR PENINSULA TO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 60S OVER C AND NC WI. EXPECT SIMILAR RESULTS TODAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW. .LONG TERM...TUESDAY NITE THRU SUNDAY. FORECAST FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS ALL AGREE ON NO PRECIP ENTERING THE CWA ON TUESDAY NITE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL SEEM TOO FAST BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE THE NAM SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH. ONCE THE LOW MOVES IN THE REGION WILL BE UNDER A COLD UPPER LOW AS STEEP LAPSE RATES THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LAPSE RATES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STEEP FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD. THE GFS RUN INDICATES THE LOW WILL HANG OUT OVER THE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THRU SATURDAY NITE. HOWEVER THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SO WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AS IS AT THIS TIME. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ TDH/KURIMSKI WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY wi AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 1208 PM EDT MON APR 17 2006 .DISCUSSION... UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGING JUST NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA... TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING. MAINLY PULSE ACTIVITY WITH SMALL HAIL...THOUGH A COUPLE OF STORMS EXCEEDED SEVERE THRESHOLDS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH AFTERNOON...SO TAPERED POPS OFF INTO EARLY EVENING. DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS IN NORTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM RISING AS MUCH AS EXPECTED...SO LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS SOME IN THIS REGION. UPDATE ALREADY OUT. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 449 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006 STACKED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST IN CONTINUES TO CHURN TO THE ESE. SPAWNED MCS DURING THE OVERNIGHT WANED CONSIDERABLY AS IT ENTERED OUR CWA. CUMBERLAND VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WERE SPARED COMPLETELY FROM THE RAIN. HAVE LARGE GRADIENT OF POPS TO COVER THIS ACTIVITY EXITING FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT A LARGE GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS TN BORDER COUNTIES STARTING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WILL SEE AT LEAST UPPER 70S IF NOT LOWER 80S...WHILE THE BLUEGRASS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS CLOUDS STICK AROUND AND NORTHERLY WINDS ENGAGE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY...BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS LEFTOVER BOUNDARY RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. GFS HAS WAFFLED THE MOST WITH TIMING THE PRECIP...HOWEVER WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW A GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP FOR WEDNESDAY...DECIDED TO INCLUDE AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POP AS A COMPROMISE. LEFT THE REST OF THE FORECAST INTACT. 1108 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 HAVE BACKED OFF ON WINDS SLIGHTLY FOR TONIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE LEFT THE FORECAST WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. REMOVED EVENING WORDING FROM THE ZFP. 703 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...PRECIP APPEARS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY TONIGHT/MONDAY IN OUR FAR SW COUNTIES. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS IN THE SW...WHILE MAINTAINING CATEGORICAL POPS IN OUR NE COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO BACKED OFF ON CLOUD COVER A BIT IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. IN ALL AREAS...HAVE UPDATED TO REFLECT THE PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED. 350 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A DECENT SHOT OF RAINFALL TO AREAS TEASED BY RAIN CHANCES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. COMPLICATED SETUP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PRESENTLY WITH A FILLING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER IOWA TRAILING A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO ARKANSAS. A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS INDIANA AND NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY EASTWARD INTO THE VIRGINIAS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TEMPS ARE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH 80S JUST TO THE SOUTH. A LINE OF STORMS WHICH FORMED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY HAS JUST ABOUT DIED AS IT ENTERED OUR FORECAST AREA THANKS TO A DOME OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR VISIBLE ON THE KOHX AND KFFC 12Z/16 SOUNDINGS. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR HAS EVEN MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S AT KLOZ EARLIER. STORM SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OVER KENTUCKY TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES AND SURFACE LOW NEARS. THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE COVERED BY A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. EARLIER CONVECTION HAS INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND HELD TEMPS DOWN SO INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL PRESENTLY BUT THIS IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO DECENT LEVELS OVERNIGHT. THE NAM IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SPEED OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT INCREASING WINDS TO NEAR 50-KTS COMPARED TO 35 TO 40-KTS ON THE GFS. LATE PANELS OF THE RUC HINT TOWARD THE NAM SCENARIO AND WITH SUCH SPEED SHEAR AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EVIDENT AS WELL...THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS JUSTIFIED. THE LOW TRACK...SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...SHOULD KEEP THE MOST PRECIP OVER OUR NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND WILL CARRY CATEGORICAL POPS IN THIS AREA EXPECTING OVER A HALF INCH OF TOTAL QPF. EXPECT POPS AND QPF TO TAPER DOWN OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH ANTICIPATED SOUTHWEST OF I-75. THE RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR MONDAY NIGHT. MAV NUMBERS LOOKED REASONABLE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS UP IN THE LOWER 60S. EXPECT CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO KEEP TEMPS DOWN MONDAY AND HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE COOLER MET NUMBERS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW FAST SKIES CLEAR BUT EXPECT A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT WITH LOW 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH. LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. RIDGE ALIGNED FROM EAST TEXAS NORTH TO SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL PROVIDE FOR A QUIET AND DRY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WHICH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SQUASHING THE UPPER RIDGE. FOLLOWED THE 00Z/16 ECMWF AND NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST AS GFS HAS SHOWN QUITE A BIT OF RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH REGARDS TO INITIAL FRONT SENT EAST BY THE PLAINS SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH BLOCKED PATTERN AND SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...IT/S DOUBTFUL FRONT WILL BE SO QUICK. ECMWF/NCEP ENSEMBLES TRACK FRONT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND STALL IT OUT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS SURFACE RIDGING OVER FLORIDA BLOCKS IT/S PROGRESSION SOUTHWARD. WAVES FORM ON THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING PERIODIC BOUTS OF RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER OUR AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AND THIS SET-UP WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. FOR NOW WILL INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY INTO THE CHANCE RANGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND IT APPEARS HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND SO WILL GO WITH A DRY AND MILD SUNDAY FOR NOW. MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER EXPECTED MAX VALUES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WERE LOWERED SOME TOWARD CLIMO TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED CLOUD COVER. KEPT BASICALLY WITH PERSISTENCE FOR MIN TEMPS. 1230 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006 CONTINUE TO MONITOR STORMS MOVING E ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KY. CURRENT TIMING WOULD BRING THESE INTO JKL/S AREA AROUND 1730Z. STILL EXPECT A DECREASING TREND AS THESE MOVE EAST...AND STILL NOT CONVINCED THEY WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT TRENDS HAVE DECIDED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ MCLANE ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 1118 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006 .MORNING UPDATE... WELL...THE SURFACE LOW THAT BROUGHT THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA HAS MOVED INTO FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT HAS JUST PASSED THROUGH THE CWA...WHERE LOW STRATO-CU CLOUDS ARE FILLING IN BEHIND IT. ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW IS SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN KY ATTM...WHERE LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EXTENDS FROM THE JACKSON AREA TO TERRE HAUTE INDIANA. A SFC TROUGH AND BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY RESIDE ALONG THE SAME AXIS. PER RECENT LAPS SOUNDING...APPEARS AS THOUGH DEEP SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK...WITH ELEVATED LIFTED INDICES ARE AT A RELATIVE MINIMUM WITH THIS YET STILL WELL ABOVE ZERO. THIS AXIS OF ENERGY SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH A FEW HAVE ALREADY POPPED UP NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. SO KEPT IN A SLIGHT CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR NERN TWO-THIRDS OF CWA. NAM/RUC MODEL RH FIELDS SEEM TO DISSIPATE THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS BY THIS EVENING...SO WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING BEHIND THIS SECONDARY BOUNDARY...AS TEMPS ARE AROUND 50 IN CENTRAL INDIANA AND IN THE LOW 60S IN SOUTHERN INDIANA. SO FELT THAT HIGHS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE STEADY OR FALLING TEMPS IN THOSE ZONES. HAVE ALREADY MADE THESE ADJUSTMENTS...AND THE UPDATE IS ALREADY OUT. AL && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS DEALING WITH THE DIMINISHING PCPN THREAT THIS MORNING. THEN THE OVERALL CLOUD TRENDS TODAY AND TONIGHT... AND THEIR RESULTING IMPACT ON MAX TEMPS TODAY AND THE MINS TONIGHT. WITH THE WEAKENING TROF EXITING THE AREA DURING THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST NOW DRIFTING SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF TRW-/RW- IN FA FOR THIS MORNING. THEN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON BUT CLEARING FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMP TRENDS FROM THE CURRENT FCST. 21 LONG TERM (TUESDAY-MONDAY)... TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... ONGOING FORECAST ONLY REQUIRED A FEW MINOR TWEAKS...SMALL MODEL DIFFERENCES FROM THE LAST FEW RUNS. MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO TO SLIGHTLY PUSH PRECIP CHANCES BACK INTO WEDNESDAY ONLY. AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROLL EAST FROM THE NEAR THE OZARKS TUESDAY EVENING AND ON ACROSS THE TN VALLEY NEAR THE TN AND KY BORDER WEDNESDAY...SYSTEM WEAKENS AS ENERGY STAYS MORE TOWARDS THE PARENT LOW NEAR THE UPPER MS VALLEY. HAVE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS AS SCTD SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHCS LOOKS TO END DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL EACH DAY. THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... HAVE FOLLOWED A COMBO OF THE ECMWF AND THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD...THIS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT FORECAST AS WELL...THOUGH SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY DEALING WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK AS MODELS SHOWING ANOMALOUS LOOKING DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY WORKING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD AS WELL. THINKING THE CUT OFF LOW IS OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THOUGH A MUCH WEAKER LOW IS PLAUSIBLE. SO HAVE TAKEN THE LOW SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THURSDAY...TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING NEAR THE EAST COAST SLOWING ITS PROGRESSION SOME...AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THE LOW WILL SCOOT OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE ATLC SEABOARD. SFC RIDGING WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK AS A UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EAST FROM THE PLAINS. HAVE MENTIONED PRECIP CHANCES WITH SHOWERS AND TSTORMS FRIDAY...LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. DRYING AND CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AMPLE SUNSHINE TO START NEXT WEEK. SCHOTT && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ ky AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1009 AM CDT MON APR 17 2006 .UPDATE... STRATUS DECK MEANDERED INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ISNT REALLY SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF IT BREAKING UP IN THE VERY NEAR FUTURE. PIREPS FROM AIZ/STL AS WELL KSTL 88D VWP INDICATE THAT THE STRATUS DECK IS ROUGHLY 2000FT THICK SO IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE THE BETTER PART OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO MIX THIS CLOUDINESS OUT. ONCE THE SUN COMES OUT STILL GOING TO PLAN ON A QUICK JUMP IN TEMPERATURES BUT EVEN THAT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO GET TEMPS UP TO GOING HIGHS IN GRIDS...SO HAVE NUDGED TEMPS DOWN A HAIR FOR NOW. FURTHER TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS ARE PROBABLY IMPENDING. KSGF VWP INDICATES THAT THE SHALLOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEGINNING TO MIX OUT WITH WINDS 700FT AGL SWINGING BACK AROUND TO SE. WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY BE TOUGH TO ACHIEVE OUR FULL MAX TEMP POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SW OF THE STRATUS DECK. IF THE KSGF VWP IS ANY INDICATION OF THE FRONTAL INVERSION HAVING MIXED OUT THEN OUR HIGH TEMP POTENTIAL FROM OUR MORNING SOUNDING WOULD BE MID 80S HERE...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY DECIDED TO LET GOING TEMPS RIDE FOR NOW OVER MAJORITY OF CWA. IZZI && .DISCUSSION...//PREV DISCUSSION FROM 640 AM CDT MON APR 17 2006// LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH RH FIELDS ACTUALLY INCREASING BEHIND IT. LOW CLOUDS CIRCULATING AROUND THE DEEP UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA MAY BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA BY SUNRISE...WITH A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE THE COOLEST WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. THIS IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT NOT AS WARM AS PREVIOUS DAYS. VERY INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS ANOTHER POTENT UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY TUESDAY. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A GREATER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN BEARS WATCHING AS MID 60S DEW POINTS ALREADY ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. RETURN FLOW BY THE LATEST RUC INDICATES THAT 60 DEW POINTS WILL BE AS CLOSE AS NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY LATER TODAY. HAVE SOME RESERVATIONS ABOUT MID TO UPPER 60 DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE OZARKS THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...HOWEVER DUE TO THE DEEP SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW DEVELOPING LATER TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...LOWER 60S IS A GOOD BIT LATER TONIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MEAN LAYER CAPES OF 2000~3000 J/KG BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THESE NUMBERS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER IF UPPER 60S DEW POINTS MANAGE TO SPREAD INTO THE OZARKS. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS VERY STRONG IN TERMS OF SHEAR PARAMETERS. THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SEE LATEST SPC DY2. WILL HIGHLIGHT MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BASED ON THE LATEST SPC GUIDANCE AND 06Z MODEL DATA. ONCE THIS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP THIS REGION RAIN FREE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF HOW FAR SOUTH THIS COLD FRONT MOVES...WHERE THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TRANSLATES EASTWARD...AND HOW ANOTHER SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC SCALE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE OZARKS FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY HAVE A LARGE IMPACT IF WE GET A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL BY LATE IN THE WEEK...AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. JLT && .AVIATION... FOR 12Z TAFS...LOWER CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN KENTUCKY HAVE SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND CURRENTLY EXTEND FROM OLATHE TO HERMITAGE TO SALEM. RUC 925 RH FIELD HAS A PRETTY DECENT LOCK ON WESTERN EDGE OF CLOUD DECK. FOLLOWING FORECAST TRENDS ON 925 RH AND APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST...WILL OPT TO KEEP MVFR CEILINGS OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. WILL BE A CLOSE CALL AT KSGF SO CLOUD TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. OTHERWISE WILL KEEP LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 00Z AS LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. TERRY && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. $$ WFO SGF mo AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1217 PM EDT MON APR 17 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO REFLECT ISSUANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 196...IN EFFECT UNTIL 21Z. LINE OF CONVECTION ORGANIZING IN EAST TENNESSEE MARCHING STEADILY TOWARD OUR WESTERN ZONES. THERE WAS INITIAL CONFUSION OVER THE COUNTIES ORIGINALLY SLATED TO BE IN THE WATCH. WE RECENTLY ISSUED A CORRECTED WATCH COORDINATION MESSAGE...UNDER THE PRODUCT INVENTORY LIST HEADER CAEWCNGSP...WITH THE PROPER COUNTIES AND REMOVING COUNTIES INADVERTENTLY INCLUDED THE FIRST TIME. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006/ SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES A WAVY-TYPE FRONTAL FEATURE STRETCHING FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WEST TO THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...THEN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE KENTUCKY COAL FIELDS. THE PART OF THIS COMPLEX FRONTAL ALIGNMENT OVER NORTHEAST PART OF THE TAR HEEL STATE IS SINKING TO THE SOUTH. THE SURFACE LOW OVER KENTUCKY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT...IS PROJECTED TO SWING SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISODROSOTHERM ANALYSIS INDICATES DEWPOINTS ALREADY BEGINNNING TO MIX OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...ALTHOUGH THIS HAS MORE TO DO WITH A DRY POCKET OR INITIAL DIURNAL MIXING THAN WITH DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS CONVECTION ALREADY ORGANIZING AHEAD OF THE KENTUCKY SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. THIS CLUSTER HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DEEPER SURFACE DEWPOINT AXIS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS AS THIS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ENCOUNTERS THE MUCH DRIER AIR INVADING OUR NORTHERN AREAS FROM THE NORTHEAST. OBSERVED SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING WERE ALREADY UNSTABLE. PROJECTED SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE TO MID LEVEL THETA-E 25 TO 30. MOISTURE HAS CREPT WELL NORTHWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR TODAY A TAD TO THE WEST ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE KEY WILL BE TO FOLLOW THE EVENTUAL PATH OF THE VORT AND ASSOCIATED STEEPER LAPSE RATES; THERE IS A POINT...SOMEWHERE IN THE MOUNTAINS OR THE UPSTATE...WHERE THE ATMOPSHERE WILL BE TOO CAPPED TO SUPPORT CONVECTION TODAY. THAT LOCATION APPEARS TO BE...THIS MORNING ANYWAY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. OBSERVED SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THE STRONGER WINDS PROJECTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WITH DEEP MIXING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SKIES STILL PRETTY MUCH CLEAR...IT WOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A STRETCH TO TAP THOSE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT. CERTAINLY...THE AFTERNOON LOOKS WINDY...AT HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND ACROSS MOST OF THE UPSTATE...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. WE DECIDED TO HOIST A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL LOCATIONS TIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. FINALLY...WE RAISED MAXES TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 SOUTHERN AREAS...AND KEPT COOLER MAXES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TODAY. WE TOOK CHANCE OF RAIN DOWN TO 40% FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...HIGHEST IN AN ARC FRM NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...DOWN TO 30% OR SO FOR THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE EASTERN UPSTATE. WE TOOK CHANCE OF RAIN TO ISOLATED FROM SCATTERED FOR THE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG METRO AREA. FIRE WEATHER... MIXING HEIGHTS COULD END UP A TAD HIGHER THAN EARLIER PROJECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS...INCHING TOWARD 9000 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE NAM...GFS AND RUC ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE VORT MAX ACROSS KENTUCKY DURING THE MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING IT ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND BRUSHING OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE MID DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH DURING THE DAY WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 60 RANGE SOUTH OF THE ADVANCING FRONT AND CAPES ABOVE 1000 OVER LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85. SPC HAS POSTED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FOR OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES...GENERALLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 FOR STORM COMPLEX THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA. WITH WET BULB ZERO BEING IN THE 8500 TO 9500 RANGE...HAIL IS A CONCERN AS WELL AS DELTA THETA-E SHOWING DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH EXPECTED ORGANIZED CONVECTION. AS THE FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE AND MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE COAST AT THE DAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT OVER FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA ON TUESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AND INTO AT LEAST MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT. MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD ON POPS AND WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS A GREATER CHANCE IS WARRENTED AT LEAST FOR THE WESTERN AREAS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO NEW ENGLAND THU THROUGH SUN. ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS LARGER SCALE VORTEX WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LEAD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU SHOULD WASH OUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ALONG THE DECAYING BOUNDARY. THE MOST PROMINENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD CROSS THE REGION DAYTIME SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AXIS...AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE REFLECTION. A STRONG 850 MB JETLET COULD TRAVERSE THE REGION ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH DEEPER LAYER DRYING ALREADY IN PLACE. AVIATION... LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH SUNRISE. WINDS ARE ABOUT 30 KTS FROM 240 DEGREES 1000 FEET OFF THE GROUND AND 40 KTS FROM 260 DEGREES AT 2000 FEET. HOWEVER...MOST SITES REMAIN MIXED AT THE SURFACE...SO THE ABSOLUTE WIND CHANGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GROUP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER OF OF THE WEST TODAY...THEN QUICKLY TURN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AS A POTENT BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SO WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF CROSS WINDS BY MID AFTERNOON AT MANY TAF SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY DEEP MIXING LATER IN THE DAY...SO WE WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR A FEW CROSSWIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE UPSTATE TAF SITES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOOKS AS IF KCLT WL SEE A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 20 AND 22 UTC WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. AS FOR THE THREAT OF CONVECTION...THE NAM DEVELOPS A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGH INSTABILITY RIGHT ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE A CB GROUP IN THE TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXITS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN THE VCNTY OF KCLT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BEGINNING AROUND 17 UTC. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION OVER THE UPSTATE...BUT KAVL MAY ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001>014-019 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM... sc AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1100 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006 .SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/... LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES A WAVY-TYPE FRONTAL FEATURE STRETCHING FROM A SURFACE WAVE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WEST TO THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...THEN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE KENTUCKY COAL FIELDS. THE PART OF THIS COMPLEX FRONTAL ALIGNMENT OVER NORTHEAST PART OF THE TAR HEEL STATE IS SINKING TO THE SOUTH. THE SURFACE LOW OVER KENTUCKY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT...IS PROJECTED TO SWING SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ISODROSOTHERM ANALYSIS INDICATES DEWPOINTS ALREADY BEGINNNING TO MIX OUT OVER THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...ALTHOUGH THIS HAS MORE TO DO WITH A DRY POCKET OR INITIAL DIURNAL MIXING THAN WITH DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. UPSTREAM RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS CONVECTION ALREADY ORGANIZING AHEAD OF THE KENTUCKY SURFACE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. THIS CLUSTER HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DEEPER SURFACE DEWPOINT AXIS. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS AS THIS ONGOING CONVECTION MOVES OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ENCOUNTERS THE MUCH DRIER AIR INVADING OUR NORTHERN AREAS FROM THE NORTHEAST. OBSERVED SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING WERE ALREADY UNSTABLE. PROJECTED SOUNDINGS SHOW SURFACE TO MID LEVEL THETA-E 25 TO 30. MOISTURE HAS CREPT WELL NORTHWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MOVED THE SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR TODAY A TAD TO THE WEST ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE KEY WILL BE TO FOLLOW THE EVENTUAL PATH OF THE VORT AND ASSOCIATED STEEPER LAPSE RATES; THERE IS A POINT...SOMEWHERE IN THE MOUNTAINS OR THE UPSTATE...WHERE THE ATMOPSHERE WILL BE TOO CAPPED TO SUPPORT CONVECTION TODAY. THAT LOCATION APPEARS TO BE...THIS MORNING ANYWAY...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. OBSERVED SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THE STRONGER WINDS PROJECTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WITH DEEP MIXING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SKIES STILL PRETTY MUCH CLEAR...IT WOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A STRETCH TO TAP THOSE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT. CERTAINLY...THE AFTERNOON LOOKS WINDY...AT HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND ACROSS MOST OF THE UPSTATE...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. WE DECIDED TO HOIST A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL LOCATIONS TIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. FINALLY...WE RAISED MAXES TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 SOUTHERN AREAS...AND KEPT COOLER MAXES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TODAY. WE TOOK CHANCE OF RAIN DOWN TO 40% FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...HIGHEST IN AN ARC FRM NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...DOWN TO 30% OR SO FOR THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND THE EASTERN UPSTATE. WE TOOK CHANCE OF RAIN TO ISOLATED FROM SCATTERED FOR THE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG METRO AREA. && .FIRE WEATHER... MIXING HEIGHTS COULD END UP A TAD HIGHER THAN EARLIER PROJECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS...INCHING TOWARD 9000 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 AM EDT MON APR 17 2006/ SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE NAM...GFS AND RUC ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE VORT MAX ACROSS KENTUCKY DURING THE MORNING. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING IT ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND BRUSHING OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE MID DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH DURING THE DAY WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 60 RANGE SOUTH OF THE ADVANCING FRONT AND CAPES ABOVE 1000 OVER LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85. SPC HAS POSTED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FOR OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES...GENERALLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 FOR STORM COMPLEX THAT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA. WITH WET BULB ZERO BEING IN THE 8500 TO 9500 RANGE...HAIL IS A CONCERN AS WELL AS DELTA THETA-E SHOWING DOWNBURST POTENTIAL WITH EXPECTED ORGANIZED CONVECTION. AS THE FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE AND MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOVING OFF THE COAST AT THE DAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT OVER FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA ON TUESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY AND INTO AT LEAST MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT. MADE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD ON POPS AND WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT APPEARS A GREATER CHANCE IS WARRENTED AT LEAST FOR THE WESTERN AREAS. LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO NEW ENGLAND THU THROUGH SUN. ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS LARGER SCALE VORTEX WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LEAD FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON THU SHOULD WASH OUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE ALONG THE DECAYING BOUNDARY. THE MOST PROMINENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD CROSS THE REGION DAYTIME SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AXIS...AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE REFLECTION. A STRONG 850 MB JETLET COULD TRAVERSE THE REGION ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE...AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL LIKELY SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH DEEPER LAYER DRYING ALREADY IN PLACE. AVIATION... LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH SUNRISE. WINDS ARE ABOUT 30 KTS FROM 240 DEGREES 1000 FEET OFF THE GROUND AND 40 KTS FROM 260 DEGREES AT 2000 FEET. HOWEVER...MOST SITES REMAIN MIXED AT THE SURFACE...SO THE ABSOLUTE WIND CHANGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR GROUP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER OF OF THE WEST TODAY...THEN QUICKLY TURN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AS A POTENT BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION. SO WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF CROSS WINDS BY MID AFTERNOON AT MANY TAF SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY DEEP MIXING LATER IN THE DAY...SO WE WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR A FEW CROSSWIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT THE UPSTATE TAF SITES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOOKS AS IF KCLT WL SEE A SHARP WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 20 AND 22 UTC WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. AS FOR THE THREAT OF CONVECTION...THE NAM DEVELOPS A NARROW RIBBON OF HIGH INSTABILITY RIGHT ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE A CB GROUP IN THE TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXITS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO BE IN THE VCNTY OF KCLT FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BEGINNING AROUND 17 UTC. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AIRMASS LOOKS TOO DRY FOR CONVECTION OVER THE UPSTATE...BUT KAVL MAY ALSO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001>014-019 UNTIL 7 PM MONDAY. && $$ SHORT TERM...SAB FIRE WEATHER... sc