000
FLUS74 KOUN 151852 CCA
AWUOUN

AREA WEATHER UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT FRI JUN 15 2007 

...WARNING DECISION UPDATE...

THIS WARNING DECISION UPDATE CONCERNS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED TO BETWEEN RUSH SPRINGS AND CYRIL.  SOUNDINGS 
SHOW AIRMASS HAS DEEP NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND NO 
CAPPING. HEATING HAS REFIRED WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTION OF UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. LOW LCLS 
WITH JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN SOME TRANSIENT 
MINI SUPERCELL REFLECTIVITY/VELOCITY STRUCTURES INTO THE EARLY 
EVENING...MUCH AS WE OBSERVED YESTERDAY. REPORTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN 
RECEIVED OF A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.  WILL 
CONTINUE TO MONITOR REGIONAL 88D NETWORK...TDWR...AND EXPERIMENTAL 
RADARS BUT AT THIS TIME BELIEVE TORNADO THREAT IS MINIMAL COMPARED 
TO FLASH FLOODING THREAT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE TORNADO WARNINGS UNLESS 
THE ROTATIONAL FEATURES BEGIN TO GROW UPSCALE.  AGAIN...WILL MONITOR 
TRENDS CAREFULLY.

IN CONTRAST...SEVERAL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS LIKELY NEXT SEVERAL 
HOURS. ENVIRONMENT FAVORS A WARM RAIN PROCESS WITH SOME OF THE 
STORMS TODAY.  THIS TYPE OF STORM WILL BE VERY EFFICIENT AT RAINFALL 
PRODUCTION AND WE'VE ADJUSTED THE KTLX Z/R RELATIONSHIP TO A 
TROPICAL VALUE (AT 15Z) IN AN ATTEMPT COMPENSATE.  STORMS WITH 
MODERATE TO HIGH REFLECTIVITY BUT ABSENCE OF LIGHTNING AND WARM 
SATELLITE TOPS WILL BE A SIGNAL THAT THIS PROCESS IS UNDERWAY.  THIS 
HAS BEEN THE CASE WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION AROUND THE UPPER LOW 
CENTER. BECAUSE OF THIS TENDENCY AND SLOW...REPEAT CELL MOTION DUE 
TO WEAK WINDS AROUND LOW CENTER...EXPECT GREATEST THREAT FOR 
DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD CONDITIONS TO BE BOUNDED BY OKC METRO...HINTON
...LAWTON...ARDMORE...BACK TO OKC METRO AREA NEXT FEW HOURS. 

$$

ANDRA

NOTE: THIS PRODUCT IS MEANT TO INCREASE INFORMATION EXCHANGE ON THE 
STORM SCALE.

TERMS DEFINED:

Z = REFLECTIVITY
V = VELOCITY (GROUND- OR STORM-RELATIVE)
VOLUMETRIC Z = REFLECTIVITY AT LOW, MID AND HIGH LEVELS 

VIL = VERTICALLY INTEGRATED LIQUID
TDA = ALGORITHM TO DETECT STRONG CYCLONIC SHEAR
POSH = PROBABILITY OF SEVERE HAIL ALGORITHM
SCIT = STORM CELL IDENTIFICATION AND TRACKING
MESH = MAXIMUM EXPECTED HAIL SIZE

TBS = THREE-BODY SCATTER = REFLECTIVITY FLARE SIGNATURE FROM HAIL
AP = ANOMALOUS PROPAGATION
MESO = MESOCYCLONE
RFD = REAR FLANK DOWNDRAFT
BWER = BOUNDED WEAK ECHO REGION
MT = MAX STORM TOP
TVS = TORNADIC VORTEX SIGNATURE
LP = LOW PRECIPITATION SUPERCELL
HP = HIGH PRECIPITATION SUPERCELL
GIANT HAIL = HAIL 2 INCHES OR GREATER

RDA = WSR-88D RADAR SITE
VCP = VOLUME COVERAGE PATTERN OF WSR-88D
TDWR = TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR (LOCATED IN NORTHWEST NORMAN)
POLARIMETRIC RADAR/DUAL POL=SEE: WWW.NSSL.NOAA.GOV/~SCHUUR/RADAR.HTML
ZDR = DIFFERENTIAL REFLECTIVITY
KDP = DIFFERENTIAL PHASE
HCA = POLARIMETRIC HYDROMETEOR CLASSIFICATION ALGORITHM

$$