FXUS62 KRAH 220545
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
145 AM EDT WED MAY 21 2003

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY IS WHERE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL 
AND POSSIBLE WATCH. THERE ARE STILL SOME DISPARITIES BETWEEN GFS
AND ETA. TRENDS INDICATE GFS...CONSISTENT...INITIALIZED BEST AND HAS 
BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AS DYNAMICS LINE UP WELL WITH 
CURRENT BAND OF PRECIP. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN TIER WITH TROUGH ACROSS THE COASTAL 
PLAIN/SANDHILLS. ADDITIONALLY STRONG HIGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
NOSES INTO CWA TODAY (POTENTIAL FOR WEDGE). THIS WILL MAKE 
TEMPERATURES BIT TRICKY AND CONSIDERABLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
LOOKS LIKE ENERGY FOR PRECIP PRODUCTION TODAY WILL BE MORE FROM
JET DYNAMICS. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIP WATERS
1.5+.

SO PLAN IS TO ISSUE FFA FOR WESTERN SECTIONS
FOR TODAY. EVENTHOUGH SOUTHWEST CWA HAS BEST POTENTIAL.
THEN EMPHASIS SHIFT TO EASTERN SECTIONS FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW LIFTS 
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MID ATLC. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTEST
WITH LOW NEAR CHS BY 18Z FRIDAY...ETA AT THAT TIME SOUTHWEST 
GEORGIA. WILL ISSUE ESF FOR REST OF CWA FOR FRIDAY...EMPHASIZING
EASTERN CWA...BEST POTENTIAL EAST OF TRIANGLE AREA. FOLLOWING GFS
TREND...PRECIP TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING. SLOWER ETA INDICATE
PRECIP INTO THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD. TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE MID ATLC REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY...LINGERING EAST OF AREA.
GFS INDICATE DYNAMICS WEAK FOR PRECIP MONDAY. HOWEVER FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY NEARBY...COULD SEE DIURNAL PRECIP. FURTHER ANALYZE
MEDIUM RANGE TO SEE IF ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.

.RAH...FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN PIEDMONT TODAY.

RA