FXUS61 KBGM 021945
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
345 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2003

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAIN IN
THE VALLEYS AND SNOW/GRAUPEL AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BGM TIED ITS
EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF MEASURABLE SNOW (0.1") WHICH WAS SET IN 1974.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT WILL DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST. ONONDAGA/MADISON/ONEIDA COUNTIES WILL BE THE LAST TO
SEE AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND WON'T SEE ANY CLEARING UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT. OTHER ZONES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDNIGHT OR
SHORTLY AFTER. THE FREEZE WARNING/FROST ADVISORIES STILL LOOK GOOD...
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER CENTRAL/SRN ZONES AND
LOWER TO MID 30S OVER FINGER LAKES/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SRN TUG
HILL.

FRIDAY...NRN ONEIDA COUNTY COULD SEE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN/SNOW
SHOWER AS THE LAKE BAND QUICKLY MOVES NORTH. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING PUSH TEMPS
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

FRI NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDY FROM WEST TO EAST WITH RAIN
MOVING INTO WRN/CENTRAL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH.

SATURDAY...THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OVER WITH IN THE MORNING...
BUT ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING IN
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(SAT NIGHT - THU)...
UL TROF HANGS ON INTO TUE. DEEP COLD UL TROF OVER CWA TODAY WILL
REMAIN WITH A LITTLE DEEPENING AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE AND
FRONT CROSSES ON SATURDAY. HEIGHT RISES WED AS TROF LIFTS OUT TO NE
AND FLOW GOES MORE ZONAL. UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE. VERY
COLD AIR COMING IN THIS WEEKEND WILL REIGNITE THE LAKE MACHINE. WITH
CAA MOST OF WEEKEND AND 850 TEMPS AROUND -5 SUN NGT ADDED THE CHC OF
SNOW. THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE FAVORABLE NW MON NGT INTO TUE AFTER
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE GOES THROUGH MON. 850 RIDGE DOES NOT SHIFT THE
WINDS TO SW UNTIL TUE NGT BUT HAVE LEFT TUE DRY TO BETTER AGREE WITH
ADJACENT OFFICES. TUE WAA KICKS IN BUT DIFFERENTIAL STILL GREAT
ENOUGH TO SET SOME LES OFF. WED AND THU WILL BE MILDER AND SUNNIER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED OVER THE REGION. WENT CLOSE TO MOS TEMPS
FOR THE DURATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS IN TRANSITION THIS AFTERNOON AS
FLOW SHIFTS FROM SW TO NW. W TO E LAKE ONTARIO BAND IS ON SE SHORE.
THIS WILL AFFECT SYR AND UCA SOON WITH LOWER CIGS AND VSBY IN STEADY
RAIN. BY 00Z FLOW WILL BE NW WITH MULTIBANDS SET UP. THIS WILL
STRETCH INTO SRN TIER WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS. TOWARD 10Z LES
WILL SHUT OFF FOR TAFS AS WINDS SHIFT BACK N. SKIES WILL SCT OUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT ONLY TO BECOME BKN AGAIN WITH HEATING. VFR LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRI.

WORK ZONES OUT. ZONES BY 4PM.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER...SUSQUEHANNA
REGION AND WESTERN CATSKILLS. FROST ADVISORY FOR FINGER
LAKES...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SRN TUG HILL.
PA...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT FOR ALL ZONES.
&&
$$

SHORT TERM..VAN AUSDALL
EXTENDED/AVIATION..CHAMPNEY