000
WTPZ43 KNHC 140833
TCDEP3
HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
200 AM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006
 
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUE TO INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING OF BUD.  THE
HURRICANE IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE OVER SSTS OF LESS THAN 24C...AND
ONLY A FEW CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -50C REMAIN.  THE INTENSITY OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT WEAKENS DURING PASSAGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC SST GRADIENT IS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF
75 KT AT 06Z WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS DVORAK DATA T AND
CI NUMBERS.  WITH THE CONVECTION QUICKLY ON THE DECLINE...THE 09Z
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT...AND BUD WILL WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM SHORTLY.  THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME A
DEPRESSION NEAR THIS TIME TOMORROW...AND IT IS FORECAST TO
DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS OR LESS.

BUD IS STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGREES AT ABOUT 13
KT...STEERED BY THE DEPENDABLE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TURN
THE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. 
THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG ABOUT 22N...AS GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY
THE MODELS THAT RETAIN A CIRCULATION...SUCH AS THE GFDL AND NOGAPS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0900Z 19.5N 125.9W    70 KT
 12HR VT     14/1800Z 20.1N 127.9W    50 KT
 24HR VT     15/0600Z 20.9N 130.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     15/1800Z 21.5N 133.1W    30 KT
 48HR VT     16/0600Z 21.8N 135.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     17/0600Z 22.0N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     18/0600Z 22.0N 146.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     19/0600Z 22.0N 150.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB